Tree-informed Bayesian multi-source domain adaptation: cross-population probabilistic cause-of-death assignment using verbal autopsy.

Determining causes of deaths (CODs) occurred outside of civil registration and vital statistics systems is challenging. A technique called verbal autopsy (VA) is widely adopted to gather information on deaths in practice. A VA consists of interviewing relatives of a deceased person about symptoms of the deceased in the period leading to the death, often resulting in multivariate binary responses. While statistical methods have been devised for estimating the cause-specific mortality fractions (CSMFs) for a study population, continued expansion of VA to new populations (or "domains") necessitates approaches that recognize between-domain differences while capitalizing on potential similarities. In this article, we propose such a domain-adaptive method that integrates external between-domain similarity information encoded by a prespecified rooted weighted tree. Given a cause, we use latent class models to characterize the conditional distributions of the responses that may vary by domain. We specify a logistic stick-breaking Gaussian diffusion process prior along the tree for class mixing weights with node-specific spike-and-slab priors to pool information between the domains in a data-driven way. The posterior inference is conducted via a scalable variational Bayes algorithm. Simulation studies show that the domain adaptation enabled by the proposed method improves CSMF estimation and individual COD assignment. We also illustrate and evaluate the method using a validation dataset. The article concludes with a discussion of limitations and future directions.

Estimating seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in Ohio: A Bayesian multilevel poststratification approach with multiple diagnostic tests.

Globally, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has infected more than 59 million people and killed more than 1.39 million. Designing and monitoring interventions to slow and stop the spread of the virus require knowledge of how many people have been and are currently infected, where they live, and how they interact. The first step is an accurate assessment of the population prevalence of past infections. There are very few population-representative prevalence studies of SARS-CoV-2 infections, and only two states in the United States-Indiana and Connecticut-have reported probability-based sample surveys that characterize statewide prevalence of SARS-CoV-2. One of the difficulties is the fact that tests to detect and characterize SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus antibodies are new, are not well characterized, and generally function poorly. During July 2020, a survey representing all adults in the state of Ohio in the United States collected serum samples and information on protective behavior related to SARS-CoV-2 and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Several features of the survey make it difficult to estimate past prevalence: 1) a low response rate; 2) a very low number of positive cases; and 3) the fact that multiple poor-quality serological tests were used to detect SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. We describe a Bayesian approach for analyzing the biomarker data that simultaneously addresses these challenges and characterizes the potential effect of selective response. The model does not require survey sample weights; accounts for multiple imperfect antibody test results; and characterizes uncertainty related to the sample survey and the multiple imperfect, potentially correlated tests.

GRIK5 stimulates colon cancer growth and metastasis through cAMP/PKA/CADM3 signaling.

Glutamate receptor, ionotropic, kainate 5 (GRIK5) is a member of glutamate receptors participating, and the kainate receptor family has been proved to regulate cell proliferation and transformation. Our study aimed at exploring the role of GRIK5 in colon tumor progression. Three hundred and ninety eight colon cancer patients in The Cancer Genome Atlas Program (TCGA) data set and 26 clinical colon cancer patients were included for GRIK5 expression and prognosis analysis. GRIK5 overexpressed HCT116 and CT26 cell lines were established for cell proliferation and Transwell assay. Western blot analysis and immunostaining assay was conducted to evaluate the activation of activation of cyclic adenosine monophosphate (cAMP)/protein kinase A (PKA)/cell adhesion molecular 3 (CADM3) signaling in cell lines and tumor tissues. Subcutaneous CT26-bearing mice model was established to examine GRIK5-induced tumor growth and metastasis in vivo. Our study identified GRIK5 to be upregulated in patients with colon cancer, and higher GRIK5 levels correlated with the poor overall survival in patients. In vitro, GRIK5 overexpression markedly enhanced the proliferative properties and aggressive behaviors of colon cancer cells. Mechanistically, GRIK5 induced the activation of cAMP/PKA signaling, proceeded with augmented CADM3 expression, eventually resulting in sustained tumor growth. GRIK5 was a crucial scaffold in enabling colon cancer growth and metastasis, which offered a promising target for therapeutic manipulation of colon cancer.

Non-confirming replication of "Performance of InSilicoVA for assigning causes of death to verbal autopsies: multisite validation study using clinical diagnostic gold standards," by Flaxman et al.

BACKGROUND: A verbal autopsy (VA) is an interview conducted with the caregivers of someone who has recently died to describe the circumstances of the death. In recent years, several algorithmic methods have been developed to classify cause of death using VA data. The performance of one method-InSilicoVA-was evaluated in a study by Flaxman et al., published in BMC Medicine in 2018. The results of that study are different from those previously published by our group. METHODS: Based on the description of methods in the Flaxman et al. study, we attempt to replicate the analysis to understand why the published results differ from those of our previous work. RESULTS: We failed to reproduce the results published in Flaxman et al. Most of the discrepancies we find likely result from undocumented differences in data pre-processing, and/or values assigned to key parameters governing the behavior of the algorithm. CONCLUSION: This finding highlights the importance of making replication code available along with published results. All code necessary to replicate the work described here is freely available on GitHub.

Can the Wall Shear Stress Values of Left Internal Mammary Artery Grafts during the Perioperative Period Reflect the One-Year Patency?

PURPOSE: The left internal mammary artery (LIMA) is the preferred graft for coronary artery bypass grafting, but the reasoning for LIMA occlusion is unclear. We sought to examine whether the wall shear stress (WSS) values of LIMA grafts during the perioperative period reflected the 1-year patency by using combining computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) images. METHODS: CCTA was performed in 233 patients with LIMA graft perioperatively and 1 year later from October 2014 to May 2017. LIMA occlusion was detected in six patients at the 1-year follow-up CCTA. Two patients were excluded due to poor imaging quality. The remaining four patients were enrolled as occlusive (OCC) group, and eight patients with patent LIMA were recruited as patent (PAT) group. The WSS values of LIMA during perioperative period were calculated. LIMA graft was artificially divided into three even segments, proximal (pLIMA), middle (mLIMA) and distal (dLIMA) segments. The independent samples t-test and the Student-Newman-Keuls test were used. RESULTS: The WSS values of dLIMA were significantly higher in the PAT group than in the OCC group (4.43 vs. 2.56, p < 0.05). The WSS values of dLIMA in the PAT group were significantly higher than pLIMA, which was absent in the OCC group. CONCLUSIONS: A higher WSS value of the distal segment of LIMA and a higher WSS value of the distal segment compared with the proximal segment of LIMA in the PAT were observed; this tendency might be helpful in predicting the 1-year patency of LIMA.

Characterization of PtAOS1 Promoter and Three Novel Interacting Proteins Responding to Drought in Poncirus trifoliata.

Jasmonic acid (JA) plays a crucial role in various biological processes including development, signal transduction and stress response. Allene oxide synthase (AOS) catalyzing (13S)-hydroperoxyoctadecatrienoic acid (13-HPOT) to an unstable allene oxide is involved in the first step of JA biosynthesis. Here, we isolated the PtAOS1 gene and its promoter from trifoliate orange (Poncirus trifoliata). PtAOS1 contains a putative chloroplast targeting sequence in N-terminal and shows relative to pistachio (Pistacia vera) AOS. A number of stress-, light- and hormone-related cis-elements were found in the PtAOS1 promoter which may be responsible for the up-regulation of PtAOS1 under drought and JA treatments. Transient expression in tobacco (Nicotiana benthamiana) demonstrated that the P-532 (-532 to +1) fragment conferring drive activity was a core region in the PtAOS1 promoter. Using yeast one-hybrid, three novel proteins, PtDUF886, PtDUF1685 and PtRAP2.4, binding to P-532 were identified. The dual luciferase assay in tobacco illustrated that all three transcription factors could enhance PtAOS1 promoter activity. Genes PtDUF1685 and PtRAP2.4 shared an expression pattern which was induced significantly by drought stress. These findings should be available evidence for trifoliate orange responding to drought through JA modulation.

Suspected heroin-related overdoses incidents in Cincinnati, Ohio: A spatiotemporal analysis.

BACKGROUND: Opioid misuse and deaths are increasing in the United States. In 2017, Ohio had the second highest overdose rates in the US, with the city of Cincinnati experiencing a 50% rise in opioid overdoses since 2015. Understanding the temporal and geographic variation in overdose emergencies may help guide public policy responses to the opioid epidemic. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used a publicly available data set of suspected heroin-related emergency calls (n = 6,246) to map overdose incidents to 280 census block groups in Cincinnati between August 1, 2015, and January 30, 2019. We used a Bayesian space-time Poisson regression model to examine the relationship between demographic and environmental characteristics and the number of calls within block groups. Higher numbers of heroin-related incidents were found to be associated with features of the built environment, including the proportion of parks (relative risk [RR] = 2.233; 95% credible interval [CI]: [1.075-4.643]), commercial (RR = 13.200; 95% CI: [4.584-38.169]), manufacturing (RR = 4.775; 95% CI: [1.958-11.683]), and downtown development zones (RR = 11.362; 95% CI: [3.796-34.015]). The number of suspected heroin-related emergency calls was also positively associated with the proportion of male population, the population aged 35-49 years, and distance to pharmacies and was negatively associated with the proportion aged 18-24 years, the proportion of the population with a bachelor's degree or higher, median household income, the number of fast food restaurants, distance to hospitals, and distance to opioid treatment programs. Significant spatial and temporal heterogeneity in the risks of incidents remained after adjusting for covariates. Limitations of this study include lack of information about the nature of incidents after dispatch, which may differ from the initial classification of being related to heroin, and lack of information on local policy changes and interventions. CONCLUSIONS: We identified areas with high numbers of reported heroin-related incidents and features of the built environment and demographic characteristics that are associated with these events in the city of Cincinnati. Publicly available information about opiate overdoses, combined with data on spatiotemporal risk factors, may help municipalities plan, implement, and target harm-reduction measures. In the US, more work is necessary to improve data availability in other cities and states and the compatibility of data from different sources in order to adequately measure and monitor the risk of overdose and inform health policies.

Automated versus physician assignment of cause of death for verbal autopsies: randomized trial of 9374 deaths in 117 villages in India.

BACKGROUND: Verbal autopsies with physician assignment of cause of death (COD) are commonly used in settings where medical certification of deaths is uncommon. It remains unanswered if automated algorithms can replace physician assignment. METHODS: We randomized verbal autopsy interviews for deaths in 117 villages in rural India to either physician or automated COD assignment. Twenty-four trained lay (non-medical) surveyors applied the allocated method using a laptop-based electronic system. Two of 25 physicians were allocated randomly to independently code the deaths in the physician assignment arm. Six algorithms (Naïve Bayes Classifier (NBC), King-Lu, InSilicoVA, InSilicoVA-NT, InterVA-4, and SmartVA) coded each death in the automated arm. The primary outcome was concordance with the COD distribution in the standard physician-assigned arm. Four thousand six hundred fifty-one (4651) deaths were allocated to physician (standard), and 4723 to automated arms. RESULTS: The two arms were nearly identical in demographics and key symptom patterns. The average concordances of automated algorithms with the standard were 62%, 56%, and 59% for adult, child, and neonatal deaths, respectively. Automated algorithms showed inconsistent results, even for causes that are relatively easy to identify such as road traffic injuries. Automated algorithms underestimated the number of cancer and suicide deaths in adults and overestimated other injuries in adults and children. Across all ages, average weighted concordance with the standard was 62% (range 79-45%) with the best to worst ranking automated algorithms being InterVA-4, InSilicoVA-NT, InSilicoVA, SmartVA, NBC, and King-Lu. Individual-level sensitivity for causes of adult deaths in the automated arm was low between the algorithms but high between two independent physicians in the physician arm. CONCLUSIONS: While desirable, automated algorithms require further development and rigorous evaluation. Lay reporting of deaths paired with physician COD assignment of verbal autopsies, despite some limitations, remains a practicable method to document the patterns of mortality reliably for unattended deaths. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov , NCT02810366. Submitted on 11 April 2016.

Local Flow Patterns After Implantation of Bioresorbable Vascular Scaffold in Coronary Bifurcations　- Novel Findings by Computational Fluid Dynamics.

BACKGROUND: Development of methods for accurate reconstruction of bioresorbable scaffolds (BRS) and assessing local hemodynamics is crucial for investigation of vascular healing after BRS implantation.Methods and Results:Patients with BRS that crossed over in a coronary bifurcation were included for analysis. Reconstructions of the coronary lumen and BRS were performed by fusion of optical coherence tomography and coronary angiography generating a tree model (TM) and a hybrid model with BRS (TM-BRS). A virtual BRS model with thinner struts was created and all 3 models were analyzed using computational fluid dynamics to derive: (1) time-average shear stress (TASS), (2) TASS gradient (TASSG), which represents SS heterogeneity, and (3) fractional flow reserve (FFR). Reconstruction of the BRS was successful in all 10 patients. TASS and TASSG were both higher by TM-BRS than by TM in main vessels (difference 0.27±4.30 Pa and 10.18±27.28 Pa/mm, P<0.001), with a remarkable difference at side branch ostia (difference 13.51±17.40 Pa and 81.65±105.19 Pa/mm, P<0.001). With thinner struts, TASS was lower on the strut surface but higher at the inter-strut zones, whereas TASSG was lower in both regions (P<0.001 for all). Computational FFR was lower by TM-BRS than by TM for both main vessels and side branches (P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Neglecting BRS reconstruction leads to significantly lower SS and SS heterogeneity, which is most pronounced at side branch ostia. Thinner struts can marginally reduce SS heterogeneity.

Paired design study by real-time PCR: miR-378* and miR-145 are potent early diagnostic biomarkers of human colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: Although microRNAs offer great potential as cancer biomarkers, effective clinical dignostics and tumor maker have not been verified to diagnose with colorectal cancer (CRC). The purpose of our study is to systematically assess the expression of miRNAs in matched cancer and normal tissue samples to identify promising diagnostic microRNA (miRNA) biomarkers for CRC. METHODS: In our study, we examined by Real-Time PCR the expression levels of 96 mature miRNA in 32 CRC patients with differently expressed tumors versus normal colon tissues. Using enter and stepwise variable selection methods separately, conditional logistic regression was conducted to identify miRNAs associated with CRC. The classification performance of these indicators was assessed under the Fisher discriminant analysis. Receiver operating characteristic curve analyses were applied to obtain diagnostic utility of the differentially expressed miRNAs. RESULTS: In this study, we confirmed 11 overexpressed miRNAs with no less than twofold difference, and 85 downexpressed miRNAs with up to 0.5-fold difference in CRC from 96 aberrantly expressed miRNAs being identified by real-time PCR. Conditional logistic regression results confirmed that miRNA-378 and miRNA-145 expression profile was statistically significant. The error diagnosis rate of these two miRNAs are 0.194 and 0.113, separeately, showing by discriminant analysis. CONCLUSIONS: MiRNA-145 and miRNA-378* are potential biomarkers for early detection of CRC, which may help in diagnosing CRC in early period.

Mutational and transcriptional profile predicts the prognosis of stage IV gastric cancer - Prognostic factors for metastatic gastric cancer.

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS: The clinicopathological risk factors in the prognosis of stage IV gastric cancer have been comprehensively studied. However, the influencing factors of stage IV gastric cancer prognosis at genomic and transcriptional levels have not been well defined. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The mutational and transcriptional data, along with demographic, clinicopathological and prognostic information of 44 stage IV gastric cancer patients were downloaded from the TCGA database. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify the significant risk factors and a Nomogram model was established to predict the patient prognosis. RESULTS: TTN, TP53, FLG, LRP1B, SYNE1 and ARID1A were among the top mutated genes without hot-spot mutations. The mutational status of AHNAK2, ASCC3, DNAH3, DOP1A, MYLK, SIPA1L1, SORBS2, SYNE1 and ANF462 significantly stratified the patient prognosis. The transcription of several genes, such as AQP10, HOXC8/9/10, COL10A1/COL11A1, WNT7B, KRT17 and KLK6 was significantly up-regulated or down-regulated. Enrichment analysis on mutations and transcription revealed cell skeleton and membrane function, extracellular matrix function, HPV infection, and several cancer-related pathways as the main aberrancies. Univariate analyses revealed a series of significant factors stratifying patient prognosis, mainly including cancer location, several mutated genes and many up- or down-regulated genes. However, subsequent multivariate analysis revealed SYNE1 mutation, DNAH3 mutation, COMMD3 transcription level, and cancer location as the independent risk factors. A Nomogram model has been established with these significant risk factors to predict the patient prognosis. Further validation is needed to ensure the effectiveness of the model in real clinical practice. CONCLUSIONS: Cancer location, along with the mutational status of SYNE1 and DNAH3 and the transcriptional level of COMMD3 were independent risk factors of stage IV gastric cancer. A Nomogram model was established with these factors for prognosis prediction.

In Situ Transition Layer Design Based on Ti Additive Enabling High-Performance Liquid Metal Batteries.

Liquid metal batteries (LMBs), with the merits of long lifespan and low cost, are deemed as one of the most promising energy storage technologies for large-scale energy storage applications due to the use of liquid metal electrodes and molten salt electrolytes. However, the consequent problem is that the poor wettability between graphite-based collectors and the liquid metal/alloy electrodes leads to large contact resistance, which limits the efficiency and stability of the battery. In this work, a transition layer in situ formed on a graphite-based positive electrode current collector by Ti additive is designed for the first time, which increases the wettability between the positive alloy and the current collector and improves the voltage efficiency of the Li||Sb-Sn cell from 85.6 to 88.4%. These results provide new ideas for the design of high-efficiency LMBs.

Agreement between cause of death assignment by computer-coded verbal autopsy methods and physician coding of verbal autopsy interviews in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: The South African national cause of death validation (NCODV 2017/18) project collected a national sample of verbal autopsies (VA) with cause of death (COD) assignment by physician-coded VA (PCVA) and computer-coded VA (CCVA). OBJECTIVE: The performance of three CCVA algorithms (InterVA-5, InSilicoVA and Tariff 2.0) in assigning a COD was compared with PCVA (reference standard). METHODS: Seven performance metrics assessed individual and population level agreement of COD assignment by age, sex and place of death subgroups. Positive predictive value (PPV), sensitivity, overall agreement, kappa, and chance corrected concordance (CCC) assessed individual level agreement. Cause-specific mortality fraction (CSMF) accuracy and Spearman's rank correlation assessed population level agreement. RESULTS: A total of 5386 VA records were analysed. PCVA and CCVAs all identified HIV/AIDS as the leading COD. CCVA PPV and sensitivity, based on confidence intervals, were comparable except for HIV/AIDS, TB, maternal, diabetes mellitus, other cancers, and some injuries. CCVAs performed well for identifying perinatal deaths, road traffic accidents, suicide and homicide but poorly for pneumonia, other infectious diseases and renal failure. Overall agreement between CCVAs and PCVA for the top single cause (48.2-51.6) indicated comparable weak agreement between methods. Overall agreement, for the top three causes showed moderate agreement for InterVA (70.9) and InSilicoVA (73.8). Agreement based on kappa (-0.05-0.49)and CCC (0.06-0.43) was weak to none for all algorithms and groups. CCVAs had moderate to strong agreement for CSMF accuracy, with InterVA-5 highest for neonates (0.90), Tariff 2.0 highest for adults (0.89) and males (0.84), and InSilicoVA highest for females (0.88), elders (0.83) and out-of-facility deaths (0.85). Rank correlation indicated moderate agreement for adults (0.75-0.79). CONCLUSIONS: Whilst CCVAs identified HIV/AIDS as the leading COD, consistent with PCVA, there is scope for improving the algorithms for use in South Africa.

The openVA Toolkit for Verbal Autopsies.

Verbal autopsy (VA) is a survey-based tool widely used to infer cause of death (COD) in regions without complete-coverage civil registration and vital statistics systems. In such settings, many deaths happen outside of medical facilities and are not officially documented by a medical professional. VA surveys, consisting of signs and symptoms reported by a person close to the decedent, are used to infer the COD for an individual, and to estimate and monitor the COD distribution in the population. Several classification algorithms have been developed and widely used to assign causes of death using VA data. However, the incompatibility between different idiosyncratic model implementations and required data structure makes it difficult to systematically apply and compare different methods. The openVA package provides the first standardized framework for analyzing VA data that is compatible with all openly available methods and data structure. It provides an open-source, R implementation of several most widely used VA methods. It supports different data input and output formats, and customizable information about the associations between causes and symptoms. The paper discusses the relevant algorithms, their implementations in R packages under the openVA suite, and demonstrates the pipeline of model fitting, summary, comparison, and visualization in the R environment.

Impact of close interpersonal contact on COVID-19 incidence: Evidence from 1 year of mobile device data.

Close contact between people is the primary route for transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We quantified interpersonal contact at the population level using mobile device geolocation data. We computed the frequency of contact (within 6 feet) between people in Connecticut during February 2020 to January 2021 and aggregated counts of contact events by area of residence. When incorporated into a SEIR-type model of COVID-19 transmission, the contact rate accurately predicted COVID-19 cases in Connecticut towns. Contact in Connecticut explains the initial wave of infections during March to April, the drop in cases during June to August, local outbreaks during August to September, broad statewide resurgence during September to December, and decline in January 2021. The transmission model fits COVID-19 transmission dynamics better using the contact rate than other mobility metrics. Contact rate data can help guide social distancing and testing resource allocation.

Feasibility of Quantitative Flow Ratio Virtual Stenting for Guidance of Serial Coronary Lesions Intervention.

Background Coronary physiology measurement in serial coronary lesions with multiple stenoses is challenging. Therefore, we evaluated the feasibility of Murray fractal law-based quantitative flow ratio (µQFR) virtual stenting for guidance of serial coronary lesions intervention. Methods and Results Patients who underwent elective coronary angiography and had 2 serial de novo coronary lesions of 30% to 90% diameter stenosis by visual estimation were prospectively enrolled. µQFR and fractional flow reserve (FFR) were assessed after coronary angiography. In vessels with an FFR ≤0.80, the lesion with the larger pressure gradient was considered to be the primary lesion and treated firstly, followed by FFR measurement. The second lesion was stented when FFR ≤0.80. All µQFR and predicted µQFR after stenting were calculated from diagnostic coronary angiography before interventions, with the analysts masked to the FFR data. A total of 54 patients with 61 target vessels were interrogated. Percutaneous coronary intervention was performed in 44 vessels with FFR ≤0.80. After stenting the primary lesions, 14 nonprimary lesions had FFR ≤0.80 and a second drug-eluting stent was implanted. There was excellent correlation (r=0.97, P<0.001) and good agreement (mean difference: 0.00±0.03) between baseline µQFR and FFR in identifying flow-limiting lesions. Per-vessel diagnostic accuracy of µQFR on de novo lesions was 96.7% (95% CI, 88.7%-99.6%). µQFR and FFR are highly consistent (93.2%) in identifying the primary lesion requiring revascularization. After stenting the primary lesions, per-vessel diagnostic accuracy of predicted µQFR for identifying the significance of the nonprimary lesion was 90.9%. Predicted residual µQFR with virtual stenting was higher than final FFR (mean difference: 0.05±0.06). Conclusions In vessels with serial coronary lesions, virtual stenting by µQFR can identify the primary flow-limiting lesion for revascularization.

Diagnostic accuracy of CCTA-derived versus angiography-derived quantitative flow ratio (CAREER) study: a prospective study protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Coronary CT angiography (CCTA)-derived quantitative flow ratio (CT-QFR) is a novel non-invasive technology to assess the physiological significance of coronary stenoses, which enables fast and on-site computation of fractional flow reserve (FFR) from CCTA images. The objective of this investigator-initiated, prospective, single-centre clinical trial is to evaluate the diagnostic performance of CT-QFR with respect to angiography-derived QFR, using FFR as the reference standard. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A total of 216 patients who have at least one lesion with a diameter stenosis of 30%-90% in an artery with ≥2.0 mm reference diameter will be enrolled in the study. FFR will be measured during invasive coronary angiography. CT-QFR and QFR will be assessed in two independent core laboratories in a blinded fashion. The primary endpoint is the diagnostic accuracy of CT-QFR in identifying haemodynamically significant coronary stenosis with FFR as the reference standard. The major secondary endpoint is the non-inferiority of CT-QFR compared with QFR in the patients without extensively calcified lesions. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study was approved by the Ethics Committee of Huadong Hospital Affiliated to Fudan University (2020K192). Outcomes will be disseminated through publications in peer-reviewed journals and presentations at scientific conferences. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT04665817.

Comparison of coronary CT angiography-based and invasive coronary angiography-based quantitative flow ratio for functional assessment of coronary stenosis: A multicenter retrospective analysis.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic performance of coronary CT angiography (CTA)-based quantitative flow ratio (QFR), namely CT-QFR, and compare it with invasive coronary angiography (ICA)-based Murray law QFR (µQFR), using fractional flow reserve (FFR) as the reference standard. METHODS: Patients who underwent coronary CTA, ICA and pressure wire-based FFR assessment within two months were retrospectively analyzed. CT-QFR and µQFR were computed in blinded fashion and compared with FFR, all applying the same cut-off value of ≤0.80 to identify hemodynamically significant stenosis. RESULTS: Paired comparison between CT-QFR and µQFR was performed in 191 vessels from 167 patients. Average FFR was 0.81 â€‹± â€‹0.10 and 42.4% vessels had an FFR ≤0.80. CT-QFR had a slightly lower correlation with FFR compared with µQFR, although statistically non-significant (r â€‹= â€‹0.87 versus 0.90, p â€‹= â€‹0.110). The vessel-level diagnostic performance of CT-QFR was slightly lower but without statistical significance than µQFR (AUC â€‹= â€‹0.94 versus 0.97, difference: -0.03 [95%CI: -0.00-0.06], p â€‹= â€‹0.095), and substantially higher than diameter stenosis by CTA (AUC difference: 0.17 [95%CI: -0.10-0.23], p â€‹< â€‹0.001). The patient-level diagnostic accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, positive likelihood ratio and negative likelihood ratio for CT-QFR to identify FFR value â€‹≤ â€‹0.80 was 88%, 90%, 86%, 86%, 91%, 6.59 and 0.12, respectively. The diagnostic accuracy of CT-QFR was 84% in extensively calcified lesions, while in vessels with no or less calcification, CT-QFR showed a comparable diagnostic accuracy with µQFR (91% versus 92%, p â€‹= â€‹0.595). Intra- and inter-observer variability in CT-QFR analysis was -0.00 â€‹± â€‹0.04 and 0.00 â€‹± â€‹0.04, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Performance in diagnosis of hemodynamically significant coronary stenosis by CT-QFR was slightly lower but without statistical significance than µQFR, and substantially higher than CTA-derived diameter stenosis. Extensively calcified lesions reduced the diagnostic accuracy of CT-QFR.

Prevalence of current and past COVID-19 in Ohio adults.

Purpose To estimate the prevalence of current and past COVID-19 in Ohio adults. Methods We used stratified, probability-proportionate-to-size cluster sampling. During July 2020, we enrolled 727 randomly-sampled adult English- and Spanish-speaking participants through a household survey. Participants provided nasopharyngeal swabs and blood samples to detect current and past COVID-19. We used Bayesian latent class models with multilevel regression and poststratification to calculate the adjusted prevalence of current and past COVID-19. We accounted for the potential effects of non-ignorable non-response bias. Results The estimated statewide prevalence of current COVID-19 was 0.9% (95% credible interval: 0.1%-2.0%), corresponding to ∼85,000 prevalent infections (95% credible interval: 6,300-177,000) in Ohio adults during the study period. The estimated statewide prevalence of past COVID-19 was 1.3% (95% credible interval: 0.2%-2.7%), corresponding to ∼118,000 Ohio adults (95% credible interval: 22,000-240,000). Estimates did not change meaningfully due to non-response bias. Conclusions Total COVID-19 cases in Ohio in July 2020 were approximately 3.5 times as high as diagnosed cases. The lack of broad COVID-19 screening in the United States early in the pandemic resulted in a paucity of population-representative prevalence data, limiting the ability to measure the effects of statewide control efforts.

One year of modeling and forecasting COVID-19 transmission to support policymakers in Connecticut.

To support public health policymakers in Connecticut, we developed a flexible county-structured compartmental SEIR-type model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and COVID-19 disease progression. Our goals were to provide projections of infections, hospitalizations, and deaths, and estimates of important features of disease transmission and clinical progression. In this paper, we outline the model design, implementation and calibration, and describe how projections and estimates were used to meet the changing requirements of policymakers and officials in Connecticut from March 2020 to February 2021. The approach takes advantage of our unique access to Connecticut public health surveillance and hospital data and our direct connection to state officials and policymakers. We calibrated this model to data on deaths and hospitalizations and developed a novel measure of close interpersonal contact frequency to capture changes in transmission risk over time and used multiple local data sources to infer dynamics of time-varying model inputs. Estimated epidemiologic features of the COVID-19 epidemic in Connecticut include the effective reproduction number, cumulative incidence of infection, infection hospitalization and fatality ratios, and the case detection ratio. We conclude with a discussion of the limitations inherent in predicting uncertain epidemic trajectories and lessons learned from one year of providing COVID-19 projections in Connecticut.