Multicenter, Prospective, Randomized Controlled Trial of High-Sensitivity Cardiac Troponin I-Guided Combination Angiotensin Receptor Blockade and Beta-Blocker Therapy to Prevent Anthracycline Cardiotoxicity: The Cardiac CARE Trial.

BACKGROUND: Anthracycline-induced cardiotoxicity has a variable incidence, and the development of left ventricular dysfunction is preceded by elevations in cardiac troponin concentrations. Beta-adrenergic receptor blocker and renin-angiotensin system inhibitor therapies have been associated with modest cardioprotective effects in unselected patients receiving anthracycline chemotherapy. METHODS: In a multicenter, prospective, randomized, open-label, blinded end-point trial, patients with breast cancer and non-Hodgkin lymphoma receiving anthracycline chemotherapy underwent serial high-sensitivity cardiac troponin testing and cardiac magnetic resonance imaging before and 6 months after anthracycline treatment. Patients at high risk of cardiotoxicity (cardiac troponin I concentrations in the upper tertile during chemotherapy) were randomized to standard care plus cardioprotection (combination carvedilol and candesartan therapy) or standard care alone. The primary outcome was adjusted change in left ventricular ejection fraction at 6 months. In low-risk nonrandomized patients with cardiac troponin I concentrations in the lower 2 tertiles, we hypothesized the absence of a 6-month change in left ventricular ejection fraction and tested for equivalence of ±2%. RESULTS: Between October 2017 and June 2021, 175 patients (mean age, 53 years; 87% female; 71% with breast cancer) were recruited. Patients randomized to cardioprotection (n=29) or standard care (n=28) had left ventricular ejection fractions of 69.4±7.4% and 69.1±6.1% at baseline and 65.7±6.6% and 64.9±5.9% 6 months after completion of chemotherapy, respectively. After adjustment for age, pretreatment left ventricular ejection fraction, and planned anthracycline dose, the estimated mean difference in 6-month left ventricular ejection fraction between the cardioprotection and standard care groups was -0.37% (95% CI, -3.59% to 2.85%; P=0.82). In low-risk nonrandomized patients, baseline and 6-month left ventricular ejection fractions were 69.3±5.7% and 66.4±6.3%, respectively: estimated mean difference, 2.87% (95% CI, 1.63%-4.10%; P=0.92, not equivalent). CONCLUSIONS: Combination candesartan and carvedilol therapy had no demonstrable cardioprotective effect in patients receiving anthracycline-based chemotherapy with high-risk on-treatment cardiac troponin I concentrations. Low-risk nonrandomized patients had similar declines in left ventricular ejection fraction, bringing into question the utility of routine cardiac troponin monitoring. Furthermore, the modest declines in left ventricular ejection fraction suggest that the value and clinical impact of early cardioprotection therapy need to be better defined in patients receiving high-dose anthracycline. REGISTRATION: URL: https://doi.org; Unique identifier: 10.1186/ISRCTN24439460. URL: https://www.clinicaltrialsregister.eu/ctr-search/search; Unique identifier: 2017-000896-99.

Targeting OXPHOS and the electron transport chain in cancer; Molecular and therapeutic implications.

Oxidative phosphorylation (OXPHOS) takes place in mitochondria and is the process whereby cells use carbon fuels and oxygen to generate ATP. Formerly OXPHOS was thought to be reduced in tumours and that glycolysis was the critical pathway for generation of ATP but it is now clear that OXPHOS, at least in many tumour types, plays a critical role in delivering the bioenergetic and macromolecular anabolic requirements of cancer cells. There is now great interest in targeting the OXPHOS and the electron transport chain for cancer therapy and in this review article we describe current therapeutic approaches and challenges.

Obesity: a perfect storm for carcinogenesis.

Obesity-related cancers account for 40% of the cancer cases observed in the USA and obesity is overtaking smoking as the most widespread modifiable risk factor for carcinogenesis. Here, we use the hallmarks of cancer framework to delineate how obesity might influence the carcinogenic hallmarks in somatic cells. We discuss the effects of obesity on (a) sustaining proliferative signaling; (b) evading growth suppressors; (c) resisting cell death; (d) enabling replicative immortality; (e) inducing angiogenesis; (f) activating invasion and metastasis; (g) reprogramming energy metabolism; and (h) avoiding immune destruction, together with its effects on genome instability and tumour-promoting inflammation. We present the current understanding and controversies in this evolving field, and highlight some areas in need of further cross-disciplinary focus. For instance, the relative importance of the many potentially causative obesity-related factors is unclear for each type of malignancy. Even within a single tumour type, it is currently unknown whether one obesity-related factor consistently plays a predominant role, or if this varies between patients or, even in a single patient with time. Clarifying how the hallmarks are affected by obesity may lead to novel prevention and treatment strategies for the increasingly obese population.

Is it still worth pursuing the repurposing of metformin as a cancer therapeutic?

Over the past 15 years, there has been great interest in the potential to repurpose the diabetes drug, metformin, as a cancer treatment. However, despite considerable efforts being made to investigate its efficacy in a number of large randomised clinical trials in different tumour types, results have been disappointing to date. This perspective article summarises how interest initially developed in the oncological potential of metformin and the diverse clinical programme of work to date including our contribution to establishing the intra-tumoral pharmacodynamic effects of metformin in the clinic. We also discuss the lessons that can be learnt from this experience and whether a further clinical investigation of metformin in cancer is warranted.

A Phase Ib/II study of IGF-neutralising antibody xentuzumab with enzalutamide in metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer.

BACKGROUND: This multicentre, open-label, Phase Ib/II trial evaluated the insulin-like growth factor (IGF) 1/2 neutralising antibody xentuzumab plus enzalutamide in metastatic castrate-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC). METHODS: The trial included Phase Ib escalation and expansion parts and a randomised Phase II part versus enzalutamide alone. Primary endpoints in the Phase Ib escalation, Phase Ib expansion and Phase II parts were maximum tolerated dose (MTD), prostate-specific antigen response and investigator-assessed progression-free survival (PFS), respectively. Patients in the Phase Ib escalation and Phase II parts had progressed on/after docetaxel/abiraterone. RESULTS: In the Phase Ib escalation (n = 10), no dose-limiting toxicities were reported, and xentuzumab 1000 mg weekly plus enzalutamide 160 mg daily (Xe1000 + En160) was defined as the MTD and recommended Phase 2 dose. In the Phase Ib expansion (n = 24), median PFS was 8.2 months, and one patient had a confirmed, long-term response. In Phase II (n = 86), median PFS for the Xe1000 + En160 and En160 arms was 7.4 and 6.2 months, respectively. Subgroup analysis suggested trends towards benefit with Xe1000 + En160 in patients whose tumours had high levels of IGF1 mRNA or PTEN protein. Overall, the combination was well tolerated. CONCLUSIONS: Xentuzumab plus enzalutamide was tolerable but lacked antitumour activity in unselected patients with mCRPC. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: EudraCT number 2013-004011-41.

The current status of risk-stratified breast screening.

Apart from high-risk scenarios such as the presence of highly penetrant genetic mutations, breast screening typically comprises mammography or tomosynthesis strategies defined by age. However, age-based screening ignores the range of breast cancer risks that individual women may possess and is antithetical to the ambitions of personalised early detection. Whilst screening mammography reduces breast cancer mortality, this is at the risk of potentially significant harms including overdiagnosis with overtreatment, and psychological morbidity associated with false positives. In risk-stratified screening, individualised risk assessment may inform screening intensity/interval, starting age, imaging modality used, or even decisions not to screen. However, clear evidence for its benefits and harms needs to be established. In this scoping review, the authors summarise the established and emerging evidence regarding several critical dependencies for successful risk-stratified breast screening: risk prediction model performance, epidemiological studies, retrospective clinical evaluations, health economic evaluations and qualitative research on feasibility and acceptability. Family history, breast density or reproductive factors are not on their own suitable for precisely estimating risk and risk prediction models increasingly incorporate combinations of demographic, clinical, genetic and imaging-related parameters. Clinical evaluations of risk-stratified screening are currently limited. Epidemiological evidence is sparse, and randomised trials only began in recent years.

Heritable genetic variants in key cancer genes link cancer risk with anthropometric traits.

BACKGROUND: Height and other anthropometric measures are consistently found to associate with differential cancer risk. However, both genetic and mechanistic insights into these epidemiological associations are notably lacking. Conversely, inherited genetic variants in tumour suppressors and oncogenes increase cancer risk, but little is known about their influence on anthropometric traits. METHODS: By integrating inherited and somatic cancer genetic data from the Genome-Wide Association Study Catalog, expression Quantitative Trait Loci databases and the Cancer Gene Census, we identify SNPs that associate with different cancer types and differential gene expression in at least one tissue type, and explore the potential pleiotropic associations of these SNPs with anthropometric traits through SNP-wise association in a cohort of 500,000 individuals. RESULTS: We identify three regulatory SNPs for three important cancer genes, FANCA, MAP3K1 and TP53 that associate with both anthropometric traits and cancer risk. Of particular interest, we identify a previously unrecognised strong association between the rs78378222[C] SNP in the 3' untranslated region (3'-UTR) of TP53 and both increased risk for developing non-melanomatous skin cancer (OR=1.36 (95% 1.31 to 1.41), adjusted p=7.62E-63), brain malignancy (OR=3.12 (2.22 to 4.37), adjusted p=1.43E-12) and increased standing height (adjusted p=2.18E-24, beta=0.073±0.007), lean body mass (adjusted p=8.34E-37, beta=0.073±0.005) and basal metabolic rate (adjusted p=1.13E-31, beta=0.076±0.006), thus offering a novel genetic link between these anthropometric traits and cancer risk. CONCLUSION: Our results clearly demonstrate that heritable variants in key cancer genes can associate with both differential cancer risk and anthropometric traits in the general population, thereby lending support for a genetic basis for linking these human phenotypes.

Hypoxia-induced switch in SNAT2/SLC38A2 regulation generates endocrine resistance in breast cancer.

Tumor hypoxia is associated with poor patient outcomes in estrogen receptor-α-positive (ERα+) breast cancer. Hypoxia is known to affect tumor growth by reprogramming metabolism and regulating amino acid (AA) uptake. Here, we show that the glutamine transporter, SNAT2, is the AA transporter most frequently induced by hypoxia in breast cancer, and is regulated by hypoxia both in vitro and in vivo in xenografts. SNAT2 induction in MCF7 cells was also regulated by ERα, but it became predominantly a hypoxia-inducible factor 1α (HIF-1α)-dependent gene under hypoxia. Relevant to this, binding sites for both HIF-1α and ERα overlap in SNAT2's cis-regulatory elements. In addition, the down-regulation of SNAT2 by the ER antagonist fulvestrant was reverted in hypoxia. Overexpression of SNAT2 in vitro to recapitulate the levels induced by hypoxia caused enhanced growth, particularly after ERα inhibition, in hypoxia, or when glutamine levels were low. SNAT2 up-regulation in vivo caused complete resistance to antiestrogen and, partially, anti-VEGF therapies. Finally, high SNAT2 expression levels correlated with hypoxia profiles and worse outcome in patients given antiestrogen therapies. Our findings show a switch in the regulation of SNAT2 between ERα and HIF-1α, leading to endocrine resistance in hypoxia. Development of drugs targeting SNAT2 may be of value for a subset of hormone-resistant breast cancer.

Phase 1 study of the ATR inhibitor berzosertib in combination with cisplatin in patients with advanced solid tumours.

BACKGROUND: Berzosertib (formerly M6620, VX-970) is a highly potent and selective, first-in-class ataxia telangiectasia-mutated and Rad3-related protein kinase (ATR) inhibitor. We assessed the safety, tolerability, pharmacokinetics, and preliminary efficacy of berzosertib plus cisplatin. METHODS: Adult patients with advanced solid tumours refractory or resistant to standard of care therapies received ascending doses of cisplatin (day 1) and berzosertib (days 2 and 9) every 3 weeks (Q3W). RESULTS: Thirty-one patients received berzosertib (90-210 mg/m2) and cisplatin (40-75 mg/m2) across seven dose levels. The most common grade ≥3 treatment-emergent adverse events were neutropenia (20.0%) and anaemia (16.7%). There were two dose-limiting toxicities: a grade 3 hypersensitivity reaction and a grade 3 increase in alanine aminotransferase. Berzosertib 140 mg/m2 (days 2 and 9) and cisplatin 75 mg/m2 (day 1) Q3W was determined as the recommended Phase 2 dose. Cisplatin had no apparent effect on berzosertib pharmacokinetics. Of the 31 patients, four achieved a partial response (two confirmed and two unconfirmed) despite having previously experienced disease progression following platinum-based chemotherapy. CONCLUSIONS: Berzosertib plus cisplatin is well tolerated and shows preliminary clinical activity in patients with advanced solid tumours, warranting further evaluation in a Phase 2 setting. CLINICAL TRIALS IDENTIFIER: NCT02157792.

Window of opportunity clinical trial designs to study cancer metabolism.

Window of opportunity trials exploit the 'window' of time after cancer diagnosis, typically prior to initiation of cancer therapy. In recent years this study design has become a more regular feature of drug development, as this 'window' provides an opportunity to carry out a thorough pharmacodynamic assessment of a therapy of interest in tumours that are unperturbed by prior treatment. Many of the first window trials interrogated the bioactivity of drugs being repurposed for cancer treatment, in particular the anti-mitochondrial agent, metformin. In this review, we describe examples of window study designs that have been used to assess drugs that target cancer metabolism with a focus on metformin. In addition, we discuss how window studies may aid the development of molecular metabolic cancer imaging.

Transcriptomic analysis of human primary breast cancer identifies fatty acid oxidation as a target for metformin.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological studies suggest that metformin may reduce the incidence of cancer in patients with diabetes and multiple late phase clinical trials assessing the potential of repurposing this drug are underway. Transcriptomic profiling of tumour samples is an excellent tool to understand drug bioactivity, identify candidate biomarkers and assess for mechanisms of resistance to therapy. METHODS: Thirty-six patients with untreated primary breast cancer were recruited to a window study and transcriptomic profiling of tumour samples carried out before and after metformin treatment. RESULTS: Multiple genes that regulate fatty acid oxidation were upregulated at the transcriptomic level and there was a differential change in expression between two previously identified cohorts of patients with distinct metabolic responses. Increase in expression of a mitochondrial fatty oxidation gene composite signature correlated with change in a proliferation gene signature. In vitro assays showed that, in contrast to previous studies in models of normal cells, metformin reduces fatty acid oxidation with a subsequent accumulation of intracellular triglyceride, independent of AMPK activation. CONCLUSIONS: We propose that metformin at clinical doses targets fatty acid oxidation in cancer cells with implications for patient selection and drug combinations. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT01266486.

Trastuzumab duocarmazine in locally advanced and metastatic solid tumours and HER2-expressing breast cancer: a phase 1 dose-escalation and dose-expansion study.

BACKGROUND: Trastuzumab duocarmazine is a novel HER2-targeting antibody-drug conjugate comprised of trastuzumab covalently bound to a linker drug containing duocarmycin. Preclinical studies showed promising antitumour activity in various models. In this first-in-human study, we assessed the safety and activity of trastuzumab duocarmazine in patients with advanced solid tumours. METHODS: We did a phase 1 dose-escalation and dose-expansion study. The dose-escalation cohort comprised patients aged 18 years or older enrolled from three academic hospitals in Belgium, the Netherlands, and the UK with locally advanced or metastatic solid tumours with variable HER2 status who were refractory to standard cancer treatment. A separate cohort of patients were enrolled to the dose-expansion phase from 15 hospitals in Belgium, the Netherlands, Spain, and the UK. Dose-expansion cohorts included patients aged 18 years or older with breast, gastric, urothelial, or endometrial cancer with at least HER2 immunohistochemistry 1+ expression and measurable disease according to Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST). Trastuzumab duocarmazine was administered intravenously on day 1 of each 3-week cycle. In the dose-escalation phase, trastuzumab duocarmazine was given at doses of 0·3 mg/kg to 2·4 mg/kg (3 + 3 design) until disease progression or unacceptable toxicity. The primary endpoint of the dose-escalation phase was to assess safety and ascertain the recommended phase 2 dose, which would be the dose used in the dose-expansion phase. The primary endpoint of the dose-expansion phase was the proportion of patients achieving an objective response (complete response or partial response), as assessed by the investigator using RECIST version 1.1. This ongoing study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02277717, and is fully recruited. FINDINGS: Between Oct 30, 2014, and April 2, 2018, 39 patients were enrolled and treated in the dose-escalation phase and 146 patients were enrolled and treated in the dose-expansion phase. One dose-limiting toxic effect (death from pneumonitis) occurred at the highest administered dose (2·4 mg/kg) in the dose-escalation phase. One further death occurred in the dose-escalation phase (1·5 mg/kg cohort) due to disease progression, which was attributed to general physical health decline. Grade 3-4 treatment-related adverse events reported more than once in the dose-escalation phase were keratitis (n=3) and fatigue (n=2). Based on all available data, the recommended phase 2 dose was set at 1·2 mg/kg. In the dose-expansion phase, treatment-related serious adverse events were reported in 16 (11%) of 146 patients, most commonly infusion-related reactions (two [1%]) and dyspnoea (two [1%]). The most common treatment-related adverse events (grades 1-4) were fatigue (48 [33%] of 146 patients), conjunctivitis (45 [31%]), and dry eye (45 [31%]). Most patients (104 [71%] of 146) had at least one ocular adverse event, with grade 3 events reported in ten (7%) of 146 patients. No patients died from treatment-related adverse events and four patients died due to disease progression, which were attributed to hepatic failure (n=1), upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage (n=1), neurological decompensation (n=1), and renal failure (n=1). In the breast cancer dose-expansion cohorts, 16 (33%, 95% CI 20·4-48·4) of 48 assessable patients with HER2-positive breast cancer achieved an objective response (all partial responses) according to RECIST. Nine (28%, 95% CI 13·8-46·8) of 32 patients with HER2-low, hormone receptor-positive breast cancer and six (40%, 16·3-67·6) of 15 patients with HER2-low, hormone receptor-negative breast cancer achieved an objective response (all partial responses). Partial responses were also observed in one (6%, 95% CI 0·2-30·2) of 16 patients with gastric cancer, four (25%, 7·3-52·4) of 16 patients with urothelial cancer, and five (39%, 13·9-68·4) of 13 patients with endometrial cancer. INTERPRETATION: Trastuzumab duocarmazine shows notable clinical activity in heavily pretreated patients with HER2-expressing metastatic cancer, including HER2-positive trastuzumab emtansine-resistant and HER2-low breast cancer, with a manageable safety profile. Further investigation of trastuzumab duocarmazine for HER2-positive breast cancer is ongoing and trials for HER2-low breast cancer and other HER2-expressing cancers are in preparation. FUNDING: Synthon Biopharmaceuticals.

Can D-Dimer Measurement Reduce the Frequency of Radiological Assessment in Patients Receiving Palliative Imatinib for Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumor (GIST)?

Imatinib therapy has improved outcomes in advanced GISTs. Current guidelines suggest monitoring with CT scanning every 12 weeks. There are no validated biomarkers to assist disease evaluation. We identified 50 patients treated with imatinib for GIST in a single tertiary center. We assessed the prognostic value of D-dimers by Cox regression, and the utility as a biomarker for radiological progression (rPD) using receiver-operator curve (ROC) analysis. In asymptomatic patients with D-dimer levels <1,000 and falling levels, the negative predictive value for rPD was 92%. D-dimers may reduce the burden of CT scanning in a proportion of patients in this setting.

New role of fat-free mass in cancer risk linked with genetic predisposition.

Cancer risk is associated with the widely debated measure body mass index (BMI). Fat mass and fat-free mass measurements from bioelectrical impedance may further clarify this association. The UK Biobank is a rare resource in which bioelectrical impedance and BMI data was collected on ~ 500,000 individuals. Using this dataset, a comprehensive analysis using regression, principal component and genome-wide genetic association, provided multiple levels of evidence that increasing whole body fat (WBFM) and fat-free mass (WBFFM) are both associated with increased post-menopausal breast cancer risk, and colorectal cancer risk in men. WBFM was inversely associated with prostate cancer. We also identified rs615029[T] and rs1485995[G] as associated in independent analyses with both PMBC (p = 1.56E-17 and 1.78E-11) and WBFFM (p = 2.88E-08 and 8.24E-12), highlighting splice variants of the intriguing long non-coding RNA CUPID1 (LINC01488) as a potential link between PMBC risk and fat-free mass.

A phase I open-label, dose-escalation study of NUC-3373, a targeted thymidylate synthase inhibitor, in patients with advanced cancer (NuTide:301).

PURPOSE: 5-fluorouracil (5-FU) is inefficiently converted to the active anti-cancer metabolite, fluorodeoxyuridine-monophosphate (FUDR-MP), is associated with dose-limiting toxicities and challenging administration schedules. NUC-3373 is a phosphoramidate nucleotide analog of fluorodeoxyuridine (FUDR) designed to overcome these limitations and replace fluoropyrimidines such as 5-FU. PATIENTS AND METHODS: NUC-3373 was administered as monotherapy to patients with advanced solid tumors refractory to standard therapy via intravenous infusion either on Days 1, 8, 15 and 22 (Part 1) or on Days 1 and 15 (Part 2) of 28-day cycles until disease progression or unacceptable toxicity. Primary objectives were maximum tolerated dose (MTD) and recommended Phase II dose (RP2D) and schedule of NUC-3373. Secondary objectives included pharmacokinetics (PK), and anti-tumor activity. RESULTS: Fifty-nine patients received weekly NUC-3373 in 9 cohorts in Part 1 (n = 43) and 3 alternate-weekly dosing cohorts in Part 2 (n = 16). They had received a median of 3 prior lines of treatment (range: 0-11) and 74% were exposed to prior fluoropyrimidines. Four experienced dose-limiting toxicities: two Grade (G) 3 transaminitis; one G2 headache; and one G3 transient hypotension. Commonest treatment-related G3 adverse event of raised transaminases occurred in < 10% of patients. NUC-3373 showed a favorable PK profile, with dose-proportionality and a prolonged half-life compared to 5-FU. A best overall response of stable disease was observed, with prolonged progression-free survival. CONCLUSION: NUC-3373 was well-tolerated in a heavily pre-treated solid tumor patient population, including those who had relapsed on prior 5-FU. The MTD and RP2D was defined as 2500 mg/m2 NUC-3373 weekly. NUC-3373 is currently in combination treatment studies. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov registry number NCT02723240. Trial registered on 8th December 2015. https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT02723240 .

Cancer Precision-Prevention trial of Metformin in adults with Li Fraumeni syndrome (MILI) undergoing yearly MRI surveillance: a randomised controlled trial protocol.

BACKGROUND: Li-Fraumeni syndrome (LFS) is a rare autosomal dominant disease caused by inherited or de novo germline pathogenic variants in TP53. Individuals with LFS have a 70-100% lifetime risk of developing cancer. The current standard of care involves annual surveillance with whole-body and brain MRI (WB-MRI) and clinical review; however, there are no chemoprevention agents licensed for individuals with LFS. Preclinical studies in LFS murine models show that the anti-diabetic drug metformin is chemopreventive and, in a pilot intervention trial, short-term use of metformin was well-tolerated in adults with LFS. However, metformin's mechanism of anticancer activity in this context is unclear. METHODS: Metformin in adults with Li-Fraumeni syndrome (MILI) is a Precision-Prevention phase II open-labelled unblinded randomised clinical trial in which 224 adults aged ≥ 16 years with LFS are randomised 1:1 to oral metformin (up to 2 mg daily) plus annual MRI surveillance or annual MRI surveillance alone for up to 5 years. The primary endpoint is to compare cumulative cancer-free survival up to 5 years (60 months) from randomisation between the intervention (metformin) and control (no metformin) arms. Secondary endpoints include a comparison of cumulative tumour-free survival at 5 years, overall survival at 5 years and clinical characteristics of emerging cancers between trial arms. Safety, toxicity and acceptability of metformin; impact of metformin on quality of life; and impact of baseline lifestyle risk factors on cancer incidence will be assessed. Exploratory end-points will evaluate the mechanism of action of metformin as a cancer preventative, identify biomarkers of response or carcinogenesis and assess WB-MRI performance as a diagnostic tool for detecting cancers in participants with LFS by assessing yield and diagnostic accuracy of WB-MRI. DISCUSSION: Alongside a parallel MILI study being conducted by collaborators at the National Cancer Institute (NCI), MILI is the first prevention trial to be conducted in this high-risk group. The MILI study provides a unique opportunity to evaluate the efficacy of metformin as a chemopreventive alongside exploring its mechanism of anticancer action and the biological process of mutated P53-driven tumourigenesis. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN16699730. Registered on 28 November 2022. URL: https://www.isrctn.com/ EudraCT/CTIS number 2022-000165-41.

Predicting 10-year breast cancer mortality risk in the general female population in England: a model development and validation study.

BACKGROUND: Identifying female individuals at highest risk of developing life-threatening breast cancers could inform novel stratified early detection and prevention strategies to reduce breast cancer mortality, rather than only considering cancer incidence. We aimed to develop a prognostic model that accurately predicts the 10-year risk of breast cancer mortality in female individuals without breast cancer at baseline. METHODS: In this model development and validation study, we used an open cohort study from the QResearch primary care database, which was linked to secondary care and national cancer and mortality registers in England, UK. The data extracted were from female individuals aged 20-90 years without previous breast cancer or ductal carcinoma in situ who entered the cohort between Jan 1, 2000, and Dec 31, 2020. The primary outcome was breast cancer-related death, which was assessed in the full dataset. Cox proportional hazards, competing risks regression, XGBoost, and neural network modelling approaches were used to predict the risk of breast cancer death within 10 years using routinely collected health-care data. Death due to causes other than breast cancer was the competing risk. Internal-external validation was used to evaluate prognostic model performance (using Harrell's C, calibration slope, and calibration in the large), performance heterogeneity, and transportability. Internal-external validation involved dataset partitioning by time period and geographical region. Decision curve analysis was used to assess clinical utility. FINDINGS: We identified data for 11 626 969 female individuals, with 70 095 574 person-years of follow-up. There were 142 712 (1·2%) diagnoses of breast cancer, 24 043 (0·2%) breast cancer-related deaths, and 696 106 (6·0%) deaths from other causes. Meta-analysis pooled estimates of Harrell's C were highest for the competing risks model (0·932, 95% CI 0·917-0·946). The competing risks model was well calibrated overall (slope 1·011, 95% CI 0·978-1·044), and across different ethnic groups. Decision curve analysis suggested favourable clinical utility across all age groups. The XGBoost and neural network models had variable performance across age and ethnic groups. INTERPRETATION: A model that predicts the combined risk of developing and then dying from breast cancer at the population level could inform stratified screening or chemoprevention strategies. Further evaluation of the competing risks model should comprise effect and health economic assessment of model-informed strategies. FUNDING: Cancer Research UK.

Development and internal-external validation of statistical and machine learning models for breast cancer prognostication: cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a clinically useful model that estimates the 10 year risk of breast cancer related mortality in women (self-reported female sex) with breast cancer of any stage, comparing results from regression and machine learning approaches. DESIGN: Population based cohort study. SETTING: QResearch primary care database in England, with individual level linkage to the national cancer registry, Hospital Episodes Statistics, and national mortality registers. PARTICIPANTS: 141 765 women aged 20 years and older with a diagnosis of invasive breast cancer between 1 January 2000 and 31 December 2020. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Four model building strategies comprising two regression (Cox proportional hazards and competing risks regression) and two machine learning (XGBoost and an artificial neural network) approaches. Internal-external cross validation was used for model evaluation. Random effects meta-analysis that pooled estimates of discrimination and calibration metrics, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis were used to assess model performance, transportability, and clinical utility. RESULTS: During a median 4.16 years (interquartile range 1.76-8.26) of follow-up, 21 688 breast cancer related deaths and 11 454 deaths from other causes occurred. Restricting to 10 years maximum follow-up from breast cancer diagnosis, 20 367 breast cancer related deaths occurred during a total of 688 564.81 person years. The crude breast cancer mortality rate was 295.79 per 10 000 person years (95% confidence interval 291.75 to 299.88). Predictors varied for each regression model, but both Cox and competing risks models included age at diagnosis, body mass index, smoking status, route to diagnosis, hormone receptor status, cancer stage, and grade of breast cancer. The Cox model's random effects meta-analysis pooled estimate for Harrell's C index was the highest of any model at 0.858 (95% confidence interval 0.853 to 0.864, and 95% prediction interval 0.843 to 0.873). It appeared acceptably calibrated on calibration plots. The competing risks regression model had good discrimination: pooled Harrell's C index 0.849 (0.839 to 0.859, and 0.821 to 0.876, and evidence of systematic miscalibration on summary metrics was lacking. The machine learning models had acceptable discrimination overall (Harrell's C index: XGBoost 0.821 (0.813 to 0.828, and 0.805 to 0.837); neural network 0.847 (0.835 to 0.858, and 0.816 to 0.878)), but had more complex patterns of miscalibration and more variable regional and stage specific performance. Decision curve analysis suggested that the Cox and competing risks regression models tested may have higher clinical utility than the two machine learning approaches. CONCLUSION: In women with breast cancer of any stage, using the predictors available in this dataset, regression based methods had better and more consistent performance compared with machine learning approaches and may be worthy of further evaluation for potential clinical use, such as for stratified follow-up.

Dose escalation and expansion cohorts in patients with advanced breast cancer in a Phase I study of the CDK7-inhibitor samuraciclib.

Samuraciclib is a selective oral CDK7-inhibitor. A multi-modular, open-label Phase I study to evaluate safety and tolerability of samuraciclib in patients with advanced malignancies was designed (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT03363893). Here we report results from dose escalation and 2 expansion cohorts: Module 1A dose escalation with paired biopsy cohort in advanced solid tumor patients, Module 1B-1 triple negative breast cancer (TNBC) monotherapy expansion, and Module 2A fulvestrant combination in HR+/HER2- breast cancer patients post-CDK4/6-inhibitor. Core study primary endpoints are safety and tolerability, and secondary endpoints are pharmacokinetics (PK), pharmacodynamic (PD) activity, and anti-tumor activity. Common adverse events are low grade nausea, vomiting, and diarrhea. Maximum tolerated dose is 360 mg once daily. PK demonstrates dose proportionality (120 mg-480 mg), a half-life of approximately 75 hours, and no fulvestrant interaction. In dose escalation, one partial response (PR) is identified with disease control rate of 53% (19/36) and reduction of phosphorylated RNA polymerase II, a substrate of CDK7, in circulating lymphocytes and tumor tissue. In TNBC expansion, one PR (duration 337 days) and clinical benefit rate at 24 weeks (CBR) of 20.0% (4/20) is achieved. In combination with fulvestrant, 3 patients achieve PR with CBR 36.0% (9/25); in patients without detectable TP53-mutation CBR is 47.4% (9/19). In this study, samuraciclib exhibits tolerable safety and PK is supportive of once-daily oral administration. Clinical activity in TNBC and HR+/HER2-breast cancer post-CDK4/6-inhibitor settings warrants further evaluation.

Tumor monocyte content predicts immunochemotherapy outcomes in esophageal adenocarcinoma.

For inoperable esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC), identifying patients likely to benefit from recently approved immunochemotherapy (ICI+CTX) treatments remains a key challenge. We address this using a uniquely designed window-of-opportunity trial (LUD2015-005), in which 35 inoperable EAC patients received first-line immune checkpoint inhibitors for four weeks (ICI-4W), followed by ICI+CTX. Comprehensive biomarker profiling, including generation of a 65,000-cell single-cell RNA-sequencing atlas of esophageal cancer, as well as multi-timepoint transcriptomic profiling of EAC during ICI-4W, reveals a novel T cell inflammation signature (INCITE) whose upregulation correlates with ICI-induced tumor shrinkage. Deconvolution of pre-treatment gastro-esophageal cancer transcriptomes using our single-cell atlas identifies high tumor monocyte content (TMC) as an unexpected ICI+CTX-specific predictor of greater overall survival (OS) in LUD2015-005 patients and of ICI response in prevalent gastric cancer subtypes from independent cohorts. Tumor mutational burden is an additional independent and additive predictor of LUD2015-005 OS. TMC can improve patient selection for emerging ICI+CTX therapies in gastro-esophageal cancer.