Widespread retreat of coastal habitat is likely at warming levels above 1.5 °C.

Several coastal ecosystems-most notably mangroves and tidal marshes-exhibit biogenic feedbacks that are facilitating adjustment to relative sea-level rise (RSLR), including the sequestration of carbon and the trapping of mineral sediment1. The stability of reef-top habitats under RSLR is similarly linked to reef-derived sediment accumulation and the vertical accretion of protective coral reefs2. The persistence of these ecosystems under high rates of RSLR is contested3. Here we show that the probability of vertical adjustment to RSLR inferred from palaeo-stratigraphic observations aligns with contemporary in situ survey measurements. A deficit between tidal marsh and mangrove adjustment and RSLR is likely at 4 mm yr-1 and highly likely at 7 mm yr-1 of RSLR. As rates of RSLR exceed 7 mm yr-1, the probability that reef islands destabilize through increased shoreline erosion and wave over-topping increases. Increased global warming from 1.5 °C to 2.0 °C would double the area of mapped tidal marsh exposed to 4 mm yr-1 of RSLR by between 2080 and 2100. With 3 °C of warming, nearly all the world's mangrove forests and coral reef islands and almost 40% of mapped tidal marshes are estimated to be exposed to RSLR of at least 7 mm yr-1. Meeting the Paris agreement targets would minimize disruption to coastal ecosystems.

Rebuilding marine life.

Sustainable Development Goal 14 of the United Nations aims to "conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development". Achieving this goal will require rebuilding the marine life-support systems that deliver the many benefits that society receives from a healthy ocean. Here we document the recovery of marine populations, habitats and ecosystems following past conservation interventions. Recovery rates across studies suggest that substantial recovery of the abundance, structure and function of marine life could be achieved by 2050, if major pressures-including climate change-are mitigated. Rebuilding marine life represents a doable Grand Challenge for humanity, an ethical obligation and a smart economic objective to achieve a sustainable future.

Tackling the mangrove restoration challenge.

Mangroves have been converted and degraded for decades. Rates of loss have declined over the past decades, but achieving resilient coastlines requires both conservation and restoration. Here, we outline the challenges for the global restoration of mangroves and what actions could enhance restoration. Ambitious global targets for mangrove restoration, if successful, could deliver global benefits of carbon sequestration, fisheries production, biodiversity, and coastal protection. However, large-scale mangrove planting efforts have often failed, and smaller projects may not deliver landscape-scale benefits, even though they are more suited to community management. Solutions to achieving global targets include reducing risks of large projects and increasing the uptake and effectiveness of smaller projects. Sustainable mangrove restoration requires investment in capacity building in communities and institutions, and mechanisms to match restoration opportunities with prospective supporters and investors. Global reporting standards will support adaptive management and help fully understand and monitor the benefits of mangrove restoration.

Rapid diversification of grey mangroves (Avicennia marina) driven by geographic isolation and extreme environmental conditions in the Arabian Peninsula.

Biological systems occurring in ecologically heterogeneous and spatially discontinuous habitats provide an ideal opportunity to investigate the relative roles of neutral and selective factors in driving lineage diversification. The grey mangroves (Avicennia marina) of Arabia occur at the northern edge of the species' range and are subject to variable, often extreme, environmental conditions, as well as historic large fluctuations in habitat availability and connectivity resulting from Quaternary glacial cycles. Here, we analyse fully sequenced genomes sampled from 19 locations across the Red Sea, the Arabian Sea and the Persian/Arabian Gulf (PAG) to reconstruct the evolutionary history of the species in the region and to identify adaptive mechanisms of lineage diversification. Population structure and phylogenetic analyses revealed marked genetic structure correlating with geographic distance and highly supported clades among and within the seas surrounding the Arabian Peninsula. Demographic modelling showed times of divergence consistent with recent periods of geographic isolation and low marine connectivity during glaciations, suggesting the presence of (cryptic) glacial refugia in the Red Sea and the PAG. Significant migration was detected within the Red Sea and the PAG, and across the Strait of Hormuz to the Arabian Sea, suggesting gene flow upon secondary contact among populations. Genetic-environment association analyses revealed high levels of adaptive divergence and detected signs of multi-loci local adaptation driven by temperature extremes and hypersalinity. These results support a process of rapid diversification resulting from the combined effects of historical factors and ecological selection and reveal mangrove peripheral environments as relevant drivers of lineage diversity.

All tidal wetlands are blue carbon ecosystems.

Managing coastal wetlands is one of the most promising activities to reduce atmospheric greenhouse gases, and it also contributes to meeting the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. One of the options is through blue carbon projects, in which mangroves, saltmarshes, and seagrass are managed to increase carbon sequestration and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, other tidal wetlands align with the characteristics of blue carbon. These wetlands are called tidal freshwater wetlands in the United States, supratidal wetlands in Australia, transitional forests in Southeast Asia, and estuarine forests in South Africa. They have similar or larger potential for atmospheric carbon sequestration and emission reductions than the currently considered blue carbon ecosystems and have been highly exploited. In the present article, we suggest that all wetlands directly or indirectly influenced by tides should be considered blue carbon. Their protection and restoration through carbon offsets could reduce emissions while providing multiple cobenefits, including biodiversity.

Importance of mangrove plantations for climate change mitigation in Bangladesh.

Mangroves have been identified as blue carbon ecosystems that are natural carbon sinks. In Bangladesh, the establishment of mangrove plantations for coastal protection has occurred since the 1960s, but the plantations may also be a sustainable pathway to enhance carbon sequestration, which can help Bangladesh meet its greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets, contributing to climate change mitigation. As a part of its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement 2016, Bangladesh is committed to limiting the GHG emissions through the expansion of mangrove plantations, but the level of carbon removal that could be achieved through the establishment of plantations has not yet been estimated. The mean ecosystem carbon stock of 5-42 years aged (average age: 25.5 years) mangrove plantations was 190.1 (±30.3) Mg C ha-1 , with ecosystem carbon stocks varying regionally. The biomass carbon stock was 60.3 (±5.6) Mg C ha-1 and the soil carbon stock was 129.8 (±24.8) Mg C ha-1 in the top 1 m of which 43.9 Mg C ha-1 was added to the soil after plantation establishment. Plantations at age 5 to 42 years achieved 52% of the mean ecosystem carbon stock calculated for the reference site (Sundarbans natural mangroves). Since 1966, the 28,000 ha of established plantations to the east of the Sundarbans have accumulated approximately 76,607 Mg C year-1 sequestration in biomass and 37,542 Mg C year-1 sequestration in soils, totaling 114,149 Mg C year-1 . Continuation of the current plantation success rate would sequester an additional 664,850 Mg C by 2030, which is 4.4% of Bangladesh's 2030 GHG reduction target from all sectors described in its NDC, however, plantations for climate change mitigation would be most effective 20 years after establishment. Higher levels of investment in mangrove plantations and higher plantation establishment success could contribute up to 2,098,093 Mg C to blue carbon sequestration and climate change mitigation in Bangladesh by 2030.

Land Tenure, Ownership and Use as Barriers to Coastal Wetland Restoration Projects in Australia: Recommendations and Solutions.

Globally, there is an urgent need for widespread restoration of coastal wetlands like mangroves and saltmarsh. This restoration has been slow to progress in Australia for a number of reasons, including legal issues surrounding land tenure, ownership and use. This paper uses the responses to a survey of coastal zone experts to identify and articulate these legal issues, before considering and analysing in-depth recommendations, solutions and levers to facilitate restoration, and areas where further research or possible policy and/or law reform is needed. It calls for legislative reform to clarify tidal boundaries generally and under sea-level rise, greater use of incentive schemes to encourage the uptake of restoration projects, and utilisation of contracts and land-based covenants to secure projects and carbon flows.

Research priorities for the sustainability of coral-rich western Pacific seascapes.

Nearly a billion people depend on tropical seascapes. The need to ensure sustainable use of these vital areas is recognised, as one of 17 policy commitments made by world leaders, in Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 14 ('Life below Water') of the United Nations. SDG 14 seeks to secure marine sustainability by 2030. In a time of increasing social-ecological unpredictability and risk, scientists and policymakers working towards SDG 14 in the Asia-Pacific region need to know: (1) How are seascapes changing? (2) What can global society do about these changes? and (3) How can science and society together achieve sustainable seascape futures? Through a horizon scan, we identified nine emerging research priorities that clarify potential research contributions to marine sustainability in locations with high coral reef abundance. They include research on seascape geological and biological evolution and adaptation; elucidating drivers and mechanisms of change; understanding how seascape functions and services are produced, and how people depend on them; costs, benefits, and trade-offs to people in changing seascapes; improving seascape technologies and practices; learning to govern and manage seascapes for all; sustainable use, justice, and human well-being; bridging communities and epistemologies for innovative, equitable, and scale-crossing solutions; and informing resilient seascape futures through modelling and synthesis. Researchers can contribute to the sustainability of tropical seascapes by co-developing transdisciplinary understandings of people and ecosystems, emphasising the importance of equity and justice, and improving knowledge of key cross-scale and cross-level processes, feedbacks, and thresholds.

Climate change mitigation and improvement of water quality from the restoration of a subtropical coastal wetland.

Coastal wetland restoration is an important activity to achieve greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets, improve water quality, and reach the Sustainable Development Goals. However, many uncertainties remain in connection with achieving, measuring, and reporting success from coastal wetland restoration. We measured levels of carbon (C) abatement and nitrogen (N) removal potential of restored coastal wetlands in subtropical Queensland, Australia. The site was originally a supratidal forest composed of Melaleuca spp. that was cleared and drained in the 1990s for sugarcane production. In 2010, tidal inundation was reinstated, and a mosaic of coastal vegetation (saltmarshes, mangroves, and supratidal forests) emerged. We measured soil GHG fluxes (CH4 , N2 O, CO2 ) and sequestration of organic C in the trees and soil to estimate the net C abatement associated with the reference, converted, and restored sites. To assess the influence of restoration on water quality improvement, we measured denitrification and soil N accumulation. We calculated C abatement of 18.5 Mg CO2-eq ha-1 year-1 when sugarcane land transitioned to supratidal forests, 11.0 Mg CO2-eq ha-1 year-1 when the land transitioned to mangroves, and 6.2 Mg CO2-eq ha-1 year-1 when the land transitioned to saltmarshes. The C abatement was due to tree growth, soil accumulation, and reduced N2 O emissions due to the cessation of fertilization. Carbon abatement was still positive, even accounting for CH4 emissions, which increased in the wetlands due to flooding and N2 O production due to enhanced levels of denitrification. Coastal wetland restoration in this subtropical setting effectively reduces CO2 emissions while providing additional cobenefits, notably water quality improvement.

Modelling blue carbon farming opportunities at different spatial scales.

There is a growing interest in including blue carbon ecosystems (i.e., mangroves, tidal marshes and seagrasses) in climate mitigation programs in national and sub-national policies, with restoration and conservation of these ecosystems identified as potential activities to increase carbon accumulation through time. However, there is still a gap on the spatial scales needed to produce carbon offsets comparable with terrestrial or agricultural ecosystems. Here, we used the Coastal Blue Carbon InVEST 3.7.0 model to estimate future net carbon sequestration in blue carbon ecosystems along Australia's Great Barrier Reef (hereafter GBR) catchments, considering different management scenarios (i.e., reintroduction of tidal exchange through the removal of barriers, sea level rise, restoring low lying land) at three different spatial scales: whole GBR coastline, regional (14,000-16,300 ha), and local (335-370 ha) scales. The focus of the restoration (i.e., tidal marshes and/or mangroves) was dependent on data availability for each scenario. Furthermore, we also estimated the monetary value of carbon sequestration under each management scenario and spatial scale assessed in the study. We found that large scale restoration of tidal marshes could potentially sequester an additional ∼800,000 tonnes of CO2e by 2045 (potentially generating AU$12 million based on the average Australia carbon price), with greater opportunities when sea level rise is accounted for in the modelling. Also, we found that regional and local projects would generate up to 23 tonnes CO2e ha-1 by the end of the crediting period. Our results can guide future decisions in the blue carbon market and financing schemes, however, the return on investment is dependent on the carbon price and funding scheme available for project implementation.

Harvesting water from unsaturated atmospheres: deliquescence of salt secreted onto leaf surfaces drives reverse sap flow in a dominant arid climate mangrove, Avicennia marina.

The mangrove Avicennia marina adjusts internal salt concentrations by foliar salt secretion. Deliquescence of accumulated salt causes leaf wetting that may provide a water source for salt-secreting plants in arid coastal wetlands where high nocturnal humidity can usually support deliquescence whereas rainfall events are rare. We tested the hypotheses that salt deliquescence on leaf surfaces can drive top-down rehydration, and that such absorption of moisture from unsaturated atmospheres makes a functional contribution to dry season shoot water balances. Sap flow and water relations were monitored to assess the uptake of atmospheric water by branches during shoot wetting events under natural and manipulated microclimatic conditions. Reverse sap flow rates increased with increasing relative humidity from 70% to 89%, consistent with function of salt deliquescence in harvesting moisture from unsaturated atmospheres. Top-down rehydration elevated branch water potentials above those possible from root water uptake, subsidising transpiration rates and reducing branch vulnerability to hydraulic failure in the subsequent photoperiod. Absorption of atmospheric moisture harvested through deliquescence of salt on leaf surfaces enhances water balances of Avicennia marina growing in hypersaline wetlands under arid climatic conditions. Top-down rehydration from these frequent, low intensity wetting events contributes to prevention of carbon starvation and hydraulic failure during drought.

Current and future carbon stocks in coastal wetlands within the Great Barrier Reef catchments.

Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR) catchments include some of the world's most intact coastal wetlands comprising diverse mangrove, seagrass and tidal marsh ecosystems. Although these ecosystems are highly efficient at storing carbon in marine sediments, their soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and the potential changes resulting from climate impacts, including sea level rise are not well understood. For the first time, we estimated SOC stocks and their drivers within the range of coastal wetlands of GBR catchments using boosted regression trees (i.e. a machine learning approach and ensemble method for modelling the relationship between response and explanatory variables) and identified the potential changes in future stocks due to sea level rise. We found levels of SOC stocks of mangrove and seagrass meadows have different drivers, with climatic variables such as temperature, rainfall and solar radiation, showing significant contributions in accounting for variation in SOC stocks in mangroves. In contrast, soil type accounted for most of the variability in seagrass meadows. Total SOC stock in the GBR catchments, including mangroves, seagrass meadows and tidal marshes, is approximately 137 Tg C, which represents 9%-13% of Australia's total SOC stock while encompassing only 4%-6% of the total extent of Australian coastal wetlands. In a global context, this could represent 0.5%-1.4% of global SOC stock. Our study suggests that landward migration due to projected sea level rise has the potential to enhance carbon accumulation with total carbon gains between 0.16 and 0.46 Tg C and provides an opportunity for future restoration to enhance blue carbon.

Future carbon emissions from global mangrove forest loss.

Mangroves have among the highest carbon densities of any tropical forest. These 'blue carbon' ecosystems can store large amounts of carbon for long periods, and their protection reduces greenhouse gas emissions and supports climate change mitigation. Incorporating mangroves into Nationally Determined Contributions to the Paris Agreement and their valuation on carbon markets requires predicting how the management of different land-uses can prevent future greenhouse gas emissions and increase CO2 sequestration. We integrated comprehensive global datasets for carbon stocks, mangrove distribution, deforestation rates, and land-use change drivers into a predictive model of mangrove carbon emissions. We project emissions and foregone soil carbon sequestration potential under 'business as usual' rates of mangrove loss. Emissions from mangrove loss could reach 2391 Tg CO2 eq by the end of the century, or 3392 Tg CO2 eq when considering foregone soil carbon sequestration. The highest emissions were predicted in southeast and south Asia (West Coral Triangle, Sunda Shelf, and the Bay of Bengal) due to conversion to aquaculture or agriculture, followed by the Caribbean (Tropical Northwest Atlantic) due to clearing and erosion, and the Andaman coast (West Myanmar) and north Brazil due to erosion. Together, these six regions accounted for 90% of the total potential CO2 eq future emissions. Mangrove loss has been slowing, and global emissions could be more than halved if reduced loss rates remain in the future. Notably, the location of global emission hotspots was consistent with every dataset used to calculate deforestation rates or with alternative assumptions about carbon storage and emissions. Our results indicate the regions in need of policy actions to address emissions arising from mangrove loss and the drivers that could be managed to prevent them.

Spatial cost-benefit analysis of blue restoration and factors driving net benefits globally.

Marine coastal ecosystems, commonly referred to as blue ecosystems, provide valuable services to society but are under increasing threat worldwide due to a variety of drivers, including eutrophication, development, land-use change, land reclamation, and climate change. Ecological restoration is sometimes necessary to facilitate recovery in coastal ecosystems. Blue restoration (i.e., in marine coastal systems) is a developing field, and projects to date have been small scale and expensive, leading to the perception that restoration may not be economically viable. We conducted a global cost-benefit analysis to determine the net benefits of restoring coral reef, mangrove, saltmarsh, and seagrass ecosystems, where the benefit is defined as the monetary value of ecosystem services. We estimated costs from published restoration case studies and used an adjusted-value-transfer method to assign benefit values to these case studies. Benefit values were estimated as the monetary value provided by ecosystem services of the restored habitats. Benefits outweighed costs (i.e., there were positive net benefits) for restoration of all blue ecosystems. Mean benefit:cost ratios for ecosystem restoration were eight to 10 times higher than prior studies of coral reef and seagrass restoration, most likely due to the more recent lower cost estimates we used. Among ecosystems, saltmarsh had the greatest net benefits followed by mangrove; coral reef and seagrass ecosystems had lower net benefits. In general, restoration in nations with middle incomes had higher (eight times higher in coral reefs and 40 times higher in mangroves) net benefits than those with high incomes. Within an ecosystem type, net benefit varied with restoration technique (coral reef and saltmarsh), ecosystem service produced (mangrove and saltmarsh), and project duration (seagrass). These results challenge the perceptions of the low economic viability of blue restoration and should encourage further targeted investment in this field.

Análisis de Rentabilidad Espacial de la Restauración Azul y de los Factores Determinantes del Beneficio Neto Mundial Resumen Los ecosistemas costeros marinos, llamados comúnmente ecosistemas azules, proporcionan servicios valiosos para la sociedad, pero se encuentran bajo una amenaza creciente a nivel mundial causada por una variedad de determinantes, incluyendo la eutrofización, el desarrollo, el cambio en el uso de suelo, la reclamación de tierra y el cambio climático. Algunas veces se necesita de la restauración ecológica para facilitar la recuperación en los ecosistemas costeros. La restauración azul (es decir, en los sistemas costeros marinos) es un campo en desarrollo, con proyectos que a la fecha han sido a pequeña escala y costosos, lo que resulta en la percepción de que la restauración puede no ser viable económicamente. Realizamos un análisis de rentabilidad mundial para determinar los beneficios netos de la restauración de ecosistemas de arrecife de coral, manglar, marisma y pastos marinos en donde el beneficio está definido como el valor monetario de los servicios ambientales. Estimamos los costos a partir de estudios de caso de restauración publicados y usamos un método de transferencia de valor ajustado para asignar los valores de beneficio a estos estudios de caso. Los valores de los beneficios fueron estimados como el valor monetario proporcionado por los servicios ambientales de los hábitats restaurados. Los beneficios superaron los costos (es decir, fueron beneficios netos positivos) de la restauración de todos los ecosistemas azules. El beneficio promedio consistió en que la proporción de costos para la restauración del ecosistema fue 8-10 veces mayor que en los estudios anteriores de la restauración de los arrecifes de coral y los pastos marinos, probablemente debido a que usamos estimaciones de costo más bajas. Entre los ecosistemas, las marismas tuvieron los mayores beneficios netos seguidos por los manglares; los arrecifes de coral y los pastos marinos tuvieron los beneficios netos más bajos. En general, la restauración en los países con niveles medios de ingreso tuvo más beneficios netos (ocho veces más en los arrecifes de coral y 40 veces más en los manglares) que aquellos países con niveles altos de ingreso. En cuanto al tipo de ecosistema, el beneficio neto varió de acuerdo con la técnica de restauración (arrecife de coral y marisma), servicio ambiental producido (manglar y marisma) y duración del proyecto (pastos marinos). Estos resultados desafían las percepciones de la baja viabilidad económica que tiene la restauración azul y deberían fomentar una mayor inversión focalizada en este campo.

The vulnerability of Indo-Pacific mangrove forests to sea-level rise.

Sea-level rise can threaten the long-term sustainability of coastal communities and valuable ecosystems such as coral reefs, salt marshes and mangroves. Mangrove forests have the capacity to keep pace with sea-level rise and to avoid inundation through vertical accretion of sediments, which allows them to maintain wetland soil elevations suitable for plant growth. The Indo-Pacific region holds most of the world's mangrove forests, but sediment delivery in this region is declining, owing to anthropogenic activities such as damming of rivers. This decline is of particular concern because the Indo-Pacific region is expected to have variable, but high, rates of future sea-level rise. Here we analyse recent trends in mangrove surface elevation changes across the Indo-Pacific region using data from a network of surface elevation table instruments. We find that sediment availability can enable mangrove forests to maintain rates of soil-surface elevation gain that match or exceed that of sea-level rise, but for 69 per cent of our study sites the current rate of sea-level rise exceeded the soil surface elevation gain. We also present a model based on our field data, which suggests that mangrove forests at sites with low tidal range and low sediment supply could be submerged as early as 2070.

High variance in community structure and ecosystem carbon stocks of Fijian mangroves driven by differences in geomorphology and climate.

Mangrove ecosystems are particularly important for small island developing states of the Pacific, such as Fiji, which are at the forefront of the impacts of climate change. This is because of the ability of mangroves to mitigate storm surges and floods as well as their high carbon sequestration and storage capacity. However, there are few detailed studies on the spatial variation in mangrove structure and carbon stocks in Fiji, and this information is essential to support decision making by government and communities, enabling the development of effective mitigation and adaptation responses. We assessed mangrove forest structure in contrasting regions around Fiji's largest island, Viti Levu, within sites managed by indigenous (iTaukei) Fijians. Mangroves of the Ba, Nadroga-Navosa, and Rewa and Tailevu regions showed high variance in both structural complexity and ecosystem carbon stocks. Levels of variation were similar to that observed globally due to variable geomorphological and biophysical settings related to orographic rainfall, freshwater influx, tidal amplitude and cyclonic disturbances. High biomass, structurally complex forests occur on the wetter south-east coast (e.g. the Rewa Delta), while structurally uniform scrub mangroves dominate large areas of mangroves along the north-west (e.g. the Ba Delta) and west coast (e.g. the Tuva Delta). Mangroves of the Ba region displayed considerable damage from tropical cyclones, particularly in taller vegetation. All mangrove sites assessed were important reservoirs of carbon, with results when scaled to the spatial extent of mangroves in Fiji revealing that ecosystem carbon storage is disproportionate to area and equates to 73.3% of the carbon held within terrestrial rainforests, despite occupying just 7.3% of the total area. This underscores the importance of mangroves as valuable carbon sinks in Fiji and the need to develop incentives for improved conservation and restoration.

Ecological effects of non-native species in marine ecosystems relate to co-occurring anthropogenic pressures.

Predictors for the ecological effects of non-native species are lacking, even though such knowledge is fundamental to manage non-native species and mitigate their impacts. Current theories suggest that the ecological effects of non-native species may be related to other concomitant anthropogenic stressors, but this has not been tested at a global scale. We combine an exhaustive meta-analysis of the ecological effects of marine non-native species with human footprint proxies to determine whether the ecological changes due to non-native species are modulated by co-occurring anthropogenic impacts. We found that non-native species had greater negative effects on native biodiversity where human population was high and caused reductions in individual performance where cumulative human impacts were large. On this basis we identified several marine ecoregions where non-native species may have the greatest ecological effects, including areas in the Mediterranean Sea and along the northwest coast of the United States. In conclusion, our global assessment suggests coexisting anthropogenic impacts can intensify the ecological effects of non-native species.

Mangrove blue carbon stocks and dynamics are controlled by hydrogeomorphic settings and land-use change.

Globally, carbon-rich mangrove forests are deforested and degraded due to land-use and land-cover change (LULCC). The impact of mangrove deforestation on carbon emissions has been reported on a global scale; however, uncertainty remains at subnational scales due to geographical variability and field data limitations. We present an assessment of blue carbon storage at five mangrove sites across West Papua Province, Indonesia, a region that supports 10% of the world's mangrove area. The sites are representative of contrasting hydrogeomorphic settings and also capture change over a 25-years LULCC chronosequence. Field-based assessments were conducted across 255 plots covering undisturbed and LULCC-affected mangroves (0-, 5-, 10-, 15- and 25-year-old post-harvest or regenerating forests as well as 15-year-old aquaculture ponds). Undisturbed mangroves stored total ecosystem carbon stocks of 182-2,730 (mean ± SD: 1,087 ± 584) Mg C/ha, with the large variation driven by hydrogeomorphic settings. The highest carbon stocks were found in estuarine interior (EI) mangroves, followed by open coast interior, open coast fringe and EI forests. Forest harvesting did not significantly affect soil carbon stocks, despite an elevated dead wood density relative to undisturbed forests, but it did remove nearly all live biomass. Aquaculture conversion removed 60% of soil carbon stock and 85% of live biomass carbon stock, relative to reference sites. By contrast, mangroves left to regenerate for more than 25 years reached the same level of biomass carbon compared to undisturbed forests, with annual biomass accumulation rates of 3.6 ± 1.1 Mg C ha-1  year-1 . This study shows that hydrogeomorphic setting controls natural dynamics of mangrove blue carbon stocks, while long-term land-use changes affect carbon loss and gain to a substantial degree. Therefore, current land-based climate policies must incorporate landscape and land-use characteristics, and their related carbon management consequences, for more effective emissions reduction targets and restoration outcomes.

Dimensions of Blue Carbon and emerging perspectives.

Blue Carbon is a term coined in 2009 to draw attention to the degradation of marine and coastal ecosystems and the need to conserve and restore them to mitigate climate change and for the other ecosystem services they provide. Blue Carbon has multiple meanings, which we aim to clarify here, which reflect the original descriptions of the concept including (1) all organic matter captured by marine organisms, and (2) how marine ecosystems could be managed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and thereby contribute to climate change mitigation and conservation. The multifaceted nature of the Blue Carbon concept has led to unprecedented collaboration across disciplines, where scientists, conservationists and policy makers have interacted intensely to advance shared goals. Some coastal ecosystems (mangroves, tidal marshes and seagrass) are established Blue Carbon ecosystems as they often have high carbon stocks, support long-term carbon storage, offer the potential to manage greenhouse gas emissions and support other adaptation policies. Some marine ecosystems do not meet key criteria for inclusion within the Blue Carbon framework (e.g. fish, bivalves and coral reefs). Others have gaps in scientific understanding of carbon stocks or greenhouse gas fluxes, or currently there is limited potential for management or accounting for carbon sequestration (macroalgae and phytoplankton), but may be considered Blue Carbon ecosystems in the future, once these gaps are addressed.