A dynamic model of some malaria-transmitting anopheline mosquitoes of the Afrotropical region. I. Model description and sensitivity analysis.

BACKGROUND: Most of the current biophysical models designed to address the large-scale distribution of malaria assume that transmission of the disease is independent of the vector involved. Another common assumption in these type of model is that the mortality rate of mosquitoes is constant over their life span and that their dispersion is negligible. Mosquito models are important in the prediction of malaria and hence there is a need for a realistic representation of the vectors involved. RESULTS: We construct a biophysical model including two competing species, Anopheles gambiae s.s. and Anopheles arabiensis. Sensitivity analysis highlight the importance of relative humidity and mosquito size, the initial conditions and dispersion, and a rarely used parameter, the probability of finding blood. We also show that the assumption of exponential mortality of adult mosquitoes does not match the observed data, and suggest that an age dimension can overcome this problem. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights some of the assumptions commonly used when constructing mosquito-malaria models and presents a realistic model of An. gambiae s.s. and An. arabiensis and their interaction. This new mosquito model, OMaWa, can improve our understanding of the dynamics of these vectors, which in turn can be used to understand the dynamics of malaria.

Diet and kwashiorkor: a prospective study from rural DR Congo.

The etiology of kwashiorkor remains enigmatic and longitudinal studies examining potential causes of kwashiorkor are scarce. Using historical, longitudinal study data from the rural area of Bwamanda, Democratic Republic of Congo, we investigated the potential causal association between diet and the development of kwashiorkor in 5 657 preschool children followed 3-monthly during 15 months. We compared dietary risk factors for kwashiorkor with those of marasmus. Kwashiorkor was diagnosed as pitting oedema of the ankles; marasmus as abnormal visibility of skeletal structures and palpable wasting of the gluteus muscle. A 24-h recall was administered 3-monthly to record the consumption of the 41 locally most frequent food items. We specified Hanley-Miettinen smooth-in-time risk models containing potential causal factors, including food items, special meals prepared for the child, breastfeeding, disease status, nutritional status, birth rank, age, season and number of meals. Bayesian Information Criteria identified the most plausible causal model of why some children developed kwashiorkor. In a descriptive analysis of the diet at the last dietary assessment prior to development of kwashiorkor, the diet of children who developed kwashiorkor was characterized by low consumption of sweet potatoes, papaya and "other vegetables" [0.0% , 2.3% (95% CI [0.4, 12.1]) and 2.3% (95% CI [0.4, 12.1])] in comparison with children who did not develop kwashiorkor [6.8% (95% CI [6.4, 7.2]), 15.5% (95% CI [15, 16.1]) and 15.1% (95% CI [14.6, 15.7])] or children who developed marasmus [4.5% (95% CI [2.6, 7.5]) 11.8% (95% CI [8.5, 16.0]) and 17.6% (95% CI [13.7, 22.5])]. Sweet potatoes and papayas have high ß-carotene content and so may some of "the other vegetables". We found that a risk model containing an age function, length/height-for age Z-score, consumption of sweet potatoes, papaya or other vegetables, duration of this consumption and its interaction term, was the most plausible model. Among children aged 10-42 months, the risk of developing kwashiorkor increased with longer non-consumption of these foods. The analysis was repeated with only children who developed marasmus as the reference series, yielding similar results. Our study supports that ß-carotene may play an important role in the protection against kwashiorkor development.

Cattle and climate in Africa: How climate variability has influenced national cattle holdings from 1961-2008.

The role of cattle in developing countries is as a source of high-quality food, as draft animals, and as a source of manure and fuel. Cattle represent important contribution to household incomes, and in drought prone areas they can act as an insurance against weather risk. So far, no studies have addressed how historical variations in temperature and rainfall have influenced cattle populations in Africa. The focus of this study is to assess the historical impact of climate variability on national cattle holdings. We reconstruct the cattle density and distribution for two time periods; 1955-1960 and 2000-2005. Based on estimates from FAO and official numbers, we generated a time series of cattle densities from 1961-2008, and compared these data with precipitation and temperature anomalies for the same period. We show that from 1961-2008 rainfall and temperature have been modulating, and occasionally controlling, the number of cattle in Africa.

How malaria models relate temperature to malaria transmission.

BACKGROUND: It is well known that temperature has a major influence on the transmission of malaria parasites to their hosts. However, mathematical models do not always agree about the way in which temperature affects malaria transmission. METHODS: In this study, we compared six temperature dependent mortality models for the malaria vector Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto. The evaluation is based on a comparison between the models, and observations from semi-field and laboratory settings. RESULTS: Our results show how different mortality calculations can influence the predicted dynamics of malaria transmission. CONCLUSIONS: With global warming a reality, the projected changes in malaria transmission will depend on which mortality model is used to make such predictions.

Effect of bednets and indoor residual spraying on spatio-temporal clustering of malaria in a village in south Ethiopia: a longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the spatio-temporal pattern of malaria transmission where prevention and control measures are in place will help to fine-tune strategies. The objective of this study was to assess the effect of mass distribution of bednets and indoor residual spraying (IRS) with insecticides on the spatio-temporal clustering of malaria in one malaria endemic village in south Ethiopia. METHODS: A longitudinal study was conducted from April 2009 to April 2011. The average population was 6631 in 1346 locations. We used active and passive searches for malaria cases for 101 weeks. SatScan v9.1.1 was used to identify statistically significant retrospective space-time clusters. A discrete Poisson based model was applied with the aim of identifying areas with high rates. PASW Statistics 18 was used to build generalized Poisson loglinear model. RESULTS: The total number of both types of malaria episodes was 622, giving 45.1 episodes per 1000 persons per year; among these, episodes of Plasmodium falciparum and vivax infection numbered 316 (22.9 per 1000 per year) and 306 (22.2 per 1000 per year), respectively. IRS with Dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) and later with Deltamethrin and free mass distribution of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) were carried out during the study period. There was space-time clustering of malaria episodes at a household level. The spatio-temporal clustering of malaria was not influenced by free mass distribution of ITNs; however, the time-span of the spatio-temporal clustering of malaria cases ended after IRS with Deltamethrin. The presence of clusters on the south-east edge of the village was consistent with the finding of an increasing risk of acquiring malaria infection for individuals who lived closer to the identified vector breeding site. CONCLUSION: The risk of getting malaria infection varied significantly within one village. Free mass distribution of ITNs did not influence the spatio-temporal clustering of malaria, but IRS might have eliminated malaria clustering.