Characteristics of paediatric frequent presenters at emergency departments: A whole-of-population study.

AIM: To quantify the frequency of emergency department (ED) presentations and profile the socio-demographic, health and presentation characteristics of paediatric ED frequent presenters. METHODS: A population-based data linkage study of 55 921 children in the South Australian Early Childhood Data Project aged 0-12 years with 100 976 presentations to public hospital EDs in South Australia. For each child, the total number of recurrent ED presentations during a 364-day period post-index presentation was calculated. Frequent presenters were children who experienced ≥4 recurrent ED presentations. We determined the socio-demographic, health and presentation characteristics by number of recurrent presentations. RESULTS: Children with ≥4 recurrent presentations (4.4%) accounted for 15.4% of all paediatric ED presentations and 22.5% of subsequent admissions to hospital during the 12-month study period. Compared to children with no recurrent ED presentation, frequent presenters had higher proportions of socio-economic and health disadvantage at birth. One in two (49.3%) frequent presenters had at least one injury presentation and one (21.3%) in five had at least one presentation related to a chronic condition. CONCLUSIONS: Children with ≥4 presentations do not represent the majority of ED users. Nevertheless, they represent a disproportionate burden accounting for 15% of all paediatric ED presentations in a 12-month period. Frequent presenters were characterised by early socio-economic and health disadvantage, and childhood injury. Strategies targeting social disadvantage and childhood injury may reduce the burden of ED presentations.

Associations between Apgar scores and children's educational outcomes at eight years of age.

BACKGROUND: Low Apgar scores are associated with neonatal morbidity and mortality, but effects of Apgar scores of 0-5, 6, 7, 8 and 9 (compared with 10) on longer-term neurodevelopmental outcomes are less clear. AIM: To examine the associations between Apgar scores of 0-5, 6, 7, 8 and 9 (compared with 10) and children's educational outcomes as measured by the Australian National Assessment Program-Literacy and Numeracy (NAPLAN) tests at age eight. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We merged perinatal data including all children born in South Australia from 1999 to 2008 with school assessment data (NAPLAN). School assessments included five learning areas (domains)-reading, writing, spelling, grammar and numeracy. Each domain was categorised according to performing at or below National Minimum Standards (≤NMS). Effects were estimated using Augmented Inverse Probability Weighting (AIPW) accounting for a range of maternal, perinatal and sociodemographic characteristics. RESULTS: Risk differences comparing five-minute Apgar scores of 0-5 with Apgar scores of 10 for children performing ≤NMS for each domain were: reading (0.07 (95% CI -0.16 to 0.29)), writing (0.27 (95% CI -0.14 to 0.68)), spelling (0.15 (95% CI -0.10 to 0.40)), grammar (0.04 (95% CI -0.21 to 0.29)) and numeracy (0.21 (95% CI -0.04 to 0.45)). Risk differences for children performing ≤NMS were also evident when Apgar score of 6 was compared with Apgar score of 10. CONCLUSIONS: Children with five-minute Apgar scores of 0-5 and 6, compared with Apgar score of 10, are at higher risk of scoring at/below the NMS on the NAPLAN assessments at eight years.

Effect of maternal smoking during pregnancy on childhood type 1 diabetes: a whole-of-population study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Evidence of an association between maternal smoking during pregnancy (prenatal smoking) and childhood type 1 diabetes is mixed. Previous studies have been small and potentially biased due to unmeasured confounding. The objectives of this study were to estimate the association between prenatal smoking and childhood type 1 diabetes, assess residual confounding with a negative control design and an E-value analysis, and summarise published effect estimates from a meta-analysis. METHODS: This whole-of-population study (births from 1999 to 2013, participants aged ≤15 years) used de-identified linked administrative data from the South Australian Early Childhood Data Project. Type 1 diabetes was diagnosed in 557 children (ICD, tenth edition, Australian Modification [ICD-10-AM] codes: E10, E101-E109) during hospitalisation (2001-2014). Families not given financial assistance for school fees was a negative control outcome. Adjusted Cox proportional HRs were calculated. Analyses were conducted on complete-case (n = 264,542, type 1 diabetes = 442) and imputed (n = 286,058, type 1 diabetes = 557) data. A random-effects meta-analysis was used to summarise the effects of prenatal smoking on type 1 diabetes. RESULTS: Compared with non-smokers, children exposed to maternal smoking only in the first or second half of pregnancy had a 6% higher type 1 diabetes incidence (adjusted HR 1.06 [95% CI 0.73, 1.55]). Type 1 diabetes incidence was 24% lower (adjusted HR 0.76 [95% CI 0.58, 0.99]) among children exposed to consistent prenatal smoking, and 16% lower for exposure to any maternal smoking in pregnancy (adjusted HR 0.84 [95% CI 0.67, 1.08]), compared with the unexposed group. Meta-analytic estimates showed 28-29% lower risk of type 1 diabetes among children exposed to prenatal smoking compared with those not exposed. The negative control outcome analysis indicated residual confounding in the prenatal smoking and type 1 diabetes association. E-value analysis indicated that unmeasured confounding associated with prenatal smoking and childhood type 1 diabetes, with a HR of 1.67, could negate the observed effect. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Our best estimate from the study is that maternal smoking in pregnancy was associated with 16% lower childhood type 1 diabetes incidence, and some of this effect was due to residual confounding.

How many words are Australian children hearing in the first year of life?

BACKGROUND: There is evidence that parents from more socioeconomically disadvantaged backgrounds engage in fewer verbal interactions with their child than more advantaged parents. This leads to the so-called, '30 million-word gap'. This study aims to investigate the number of words children hear and the number of vocalizations children produce in their first year of life and examines whether these aspects of the early language home environment differ by maternal education. METHODS: Mothers were recruited into a five-year prospective cohort study and categorized into either high or low maternal education groups. Data was derived from the first two waves of the study, when the children were six and twelve months old. At both waves, children were involved in day-long audio recordings using the Language Environment Analysis software that provided automatic counts of adult words spoken to the child, child vocalizations and conversational turns. Descriptive results are presented by maternal education groups. RESULTS: There was large variation within each maternal education group, with the number of adult words spoken to the child ranging from 2958 to 39,583 at six months and 4389 to 45,849 at twelve months. There were no meaningful differences between adult words, child vocalizations or conversational turns across maternal education groups at either wave of data collection. CONCLUSIONS: These results show that a word gap related to maternal education is not apparent up to twelve months of age. The large variability among both maternal education groups suggests that universal interventions that encourage all parents to talk more to their child may be more appropriate than interventions targeted towards disadvantaged families during the first year of life.

Effect decomposition through multiple causally nonordered mediators in the presence of exposure-induced mediator-outcome confounding.

Avin et al (2005) showed that, in the presence of exposure-induced mediator-outcome confounding, decomposing the total causal effect (TCE) using standard conditional exchangeability assumptions is not possible even under a nonparametric structural equation model with all confounders observed. Subsequent research has investigated the assumptions required for such a decomposition to be identifiable and estimable from observed data. One approach was proposed by VanderWeele et al (2014). They decomposed the TCE under three different scenarios: (1) treating the mediator and the exposure-induced confounder as joint mediators; (2) generating path-specific effects albeit without distinguishing between multiple distinct paths through the exposure-induced confounder; and (3) using so-called randomised interventional analogues where sampling values from the distribution of the mediator within the levels of the exposure effectively marginalises over the exposure-induced confounder. In this paper, we extend their approach to the case where there are multiple mediators that do not influence each other directly but which are all influenced by an exposure-induced mediator-outcome confounder. We provide a motivating example and results from a simulation study based on from our work in dental epidemiology featuring the 1982 Pelotas Birth Cohort in Brazil.

Effectiveness of a 2-year post-natal nurse home-visiting programme when children are aged 5 years: Results from a natural experiment.

AIM: To evaluate the effect of a 2-year post-natal nurse home visiting (NHV) programme delivered in routine clinical practice to socially disadvantaged mothers on children's development at 5 years. METHODS: The study was a natural experiment resulting from progressive rollout of NHV (2008-2012). Children of three groups of mothers, all eligible for NHV, were compared: (i) mothers receiving NHV in a metropolitan region (n = 197); (ii) mothers in a rural region prior to NHV being available (n = 94); and (iii) mothers receiving NHV in the rural region after it became available (n = 84). Outcomes were evaluated using the Child Behaviour Checklist, Child-Parent Relationships Scale, Behaviour Inventory of Executive Functioning and Australian Early Development Index. RESULTS: Analyses were conducted using augmented inverse probability weighting accounting for differences in the groups' baseline characteristics. While some differences were observed in the range of 8-12% between the intervention and comparison groups (albeit with wide confidence intervals, e.g. 31% less likely to 4% more likely to be experiencing poor outcomes). For the majority of outcomes, however, there were no differences observed between the intervention and comparison groups. CONCLUSIONS: Post-natal NHV provided as a part of routine service delivery did not improve children's outcomes at 5 years. It may be that in the Australian context a NHV intervention, as offered in this study, does not provide additional benefits over standard care.

Implications of vaginal instrumental delivery for children's school achievement: A population-based linked administrative data study.

BACKGROUND: Vaginal instrumental delivery is a common obstetrical intervention, but its effect on children's later development is not well known. AIMS: To determine if vaginal instrumental delivery is associated with adverse neurodevelopment as measured by school achievement. MATERIAL AND METHODS: We performed a whole-of-population study involving linkage of routinely collected perinatal data with school assessments among children born in South Australia from 1999 to 2008. Participants were singleton children born by forceps (n = 5494), ventouse (n = 6988), or normal delivery (n = 80 803). School achievement was measured through performance on the National Assessment Program in Literacy and Numeracy (NAPLAN), at around eight years of age. This assessment involved five domains and scores were categorised according to performing at or above National Minimum Standards (NMS). Effects of instrumental versus normal vaginal delivery were analysed via augmented inverse probability weighting (AIPW), taking into account a variety of maternal, perinatal and sociodemographic characteristics. RESULTS: In unadjusted analyses, instrumental delivery was not associated with poor NAPLAN scores. AIPW analyses also suggested that instrumental delivery had minimal adverse effect on NAPLAN scores, with the largest difference being lower spelling scores among forceps-delivered children (-0.022 (95% CI -0.0053-0.009)) compared with spontaneous vaginal births. The findings were consistent among exploratory subgroup analyses involving births in the absence of prolonged labour, with APGAR ≥ 9, and among normotensive and non-diabetic mothers. CONCLUSION: In singleton children born at term, instrumental delivery does not have an adverse effect on neurodevelopment as measured by NAPLAN performance at age eight.

Associations of parental food-choice control and use of food to soothe with adiposity in childhood and adolescence.

BACKGROUND: Associations of parental feeding techniques with adiposity are mixed and largely rely on cross-sectional studies. We examined associations between parental food-choice control and using food to soothe at 3.5 years on adiposity at 7 and 15 years. METHODS: Participants were from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (n = 7312). Food-choice control was assessed using the item 'how much choice do you allow him/her in deciding what foods he eats at meals?'. Use of food to soothe was reported by mothers on the item 'how often do you use sweets or other foods to stop his/her crying or fussing?'. BMI at 7 and 15 years was converted to sex- and age-adjusted z-scores. Fat mass was assessed at 15 years using dual energy X-ray absorptiometry. RESULTS: In fully-adjusted models, children given the least choice had 0.08 lower BMI z-score at age 7 years and 0.12 lower BMI z-score,1.46 kg lower fat mass at 15 years than children with the most choices. There was no evidence of an association between using food to soothe and adiposity. CONCLUSIONS: Contrary to some studies, higher parental control over food choice was associated with lower adiposity, but use of food to soothe was not associated with adiposity at ages 7 and 15.

Nurse-Moderated Internet-Based Support for New Mothers: Non-Inferiority, Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: Internet-based interventions moderated by community nurses have the potential to improve support offered to new mothers, many of whom now make extensive use of the Internet to obtain information about infant care. However, evidence from population-based randomized controlled trials is lacking. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to test the non-inferiority of outcomes for mothers and infants who received a clinic-based postnatal health check plus nurse-moderated, Internet-based group support when infants were aged 1-7 months as compared with outcomes for those who received standard care consisting of postnatal home-based support provided by a community nurse. METHODS: The design of the study was a pragmatic, preference, non-inferiority randomized control trial. Participants were recruited from mothers contacted for their postnatal health check, which is offered to all mothers in South Australia. Mothers were assigned either (1) on the basis of their preference to clinic+Internet or home-based support groups (n=328), or (2) randomly assigned to clinic+Internet or home-based groups if they declared no strong preference (n=491). The overall response rate was 44.8% (819/1827). The primary outcome was parenting self-competence, as measured by the Parenting Stress Index (PSI) Competence subscale, and the Karitane Parenting Confidence Scale scores. Secondary outcome measures included PSI Isolation, Interpersonal Support Evaluation List-Short Form, Maternal Support Scale, Ages and Stages Questionnaire-Social-Emotional and MacArthur Communicative Development Inventory (MCDI) scores. Assessments were completed offline via self-assessment questionnaires at enrolment (mean child age=4.1 weeks, SD 1.3) and again when infants were aged 9, 15, and 21 months. RESULTS: Generalized estimating equations adjusting for post-randomization baseline imbalances showed that differences in outcomes between mothers in the clinic+Internet and home-based support groups did not exceed the pre-specified margin of inferiority (0.25 of a SD) on any outcome measure at any follow-up assessment, with the exception of MCDI scores assessing children's language development at 21 months for randomized mothers, and PSI Isolation scores at 9 months for preference mothers. CONCLUSION: Maternal and child outcomes from a clinic-based postnatal health check plus nurse-moderated Internet-based support were not inferior to those achieved by a universal home-based postnatal support program. Postnatal maternal and infant support using the Internet is a promising alternative to home-based universal support programs. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry Number (ANZCTR): ACTRN12613000204741; https://www.anzctr.org.au/Trial/Registration/TrialReview.aspx?id=363712&isReview=true (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/6rZeCJ3k1).

Implications of caesarean section for children's school achievement: A population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Caesarean birth is one of the most frequently performed major obstetrical interventions. Although there is speculation that caesarean at term may have consequences for children's later health and development, longer-term studies are needed. AIM: We aimed to evaluate risks to poor school achievement among children born by caesarean section compared with spontaneous vaginal birth. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This population-based observational study involved linkage of routinely collected perinatal data with children's school assessments. Perinatal data included all children born in South Australia from 1999 to 2005. Participants were children born by elective caesarean (exposed, n = 650) or vaginal birth (unexposed, n = 2959), to women who previously had a caesarean delivery. School assessments were reported via a standardised national assessment program for children attending grade three (at ~eight years of age). Assessments included reading, writing, spelling, grammar and numeracy and were categorised according to performing at above or ≤National Minimum Standards (NMS). Statistical analyses involved augmented inverse probability weighting (apiw) and accounted for a range of maternal, perinatal and sociodemographic characteristics. RESULTS: Children performing ≤NMS for vaginal birth versus caesarean section were as follows: reading 144/640 (23%) and 688/2921 (24%), writing 69/636(11%) and 351/2917 (12%), spelling 128/646 (20%) and 684/2937 (23%), grammar 132/646 (20%) and 655/2937 (22%), and numeracy 151/634 (24%) and 729/2922 (25%). Both the raw data and the aipw analyses suggested little differences in school achievement between children born by caesarean versus vaginal birth. CONCLUSION: Analyses that carefully controlled for a wide range of confounders suggest that caesarean section does not increase the risk of poor school outcomes at age eight.

A novel case-control design to estimate the extent of over-diagnosis of breast cancer due to organised population-based mammography screening.

Debate about the extent of breast cancer over-diagnosis due to mammography screening has continued for over a decade, without consensus. Estimates range from 0 to 54%, but many studies have been criticized for having flawed methodology. In this study we used a novel study design to estimate over-diagnosis due to organised mammography screening in South Australia (SA). To estimate breast cancer incidence at and following screening we used a population-based, age-matched case-control design involving 4,931 breast cancer cases and 22,914 controls to obtain OR for yearly time intervals since women's last screening mammogram. The level of over-diagnosis was estimated by comparing the cumulative breast cancer incidence with and without screening. The former was derived by applying ORs for each time window to incidence rates in the absence of screening, and the latter, by projecting pre-screening incidence rates. Sensitivity analyses were undertaken to assess potential biases. Over-diagnosis was estimated to be 8% (95%CI 2-14%) and 14% (95%CI 8-19%) among SA women aged 45 to 85 years from 2006-2010, for invasive breast cancer and all breast cancer respectively. These estimates were robust when applying various sensitivity analyses, except for adjustment for potential confounding assuming higher risk among screened than non-screened women, which reduced levels of over-diagnosis to 1% (95%CI 5-7%) and 8% (95%CI 2-14%) respectively when incidence rates for screening participants were adjusted by 10%. Our results indicate that the level of over-diagnosis due to mammography screening is modest and considerably lower than many previous estimates, including others for Australia.

Inequalities in non-communicable diseases and effective responses.

In most countries, people who have a low socioeconomic status and those who live in poor or marginalised communities have a higher risk of dying from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) than do more advantaged groups and communities. Smoking rates, blood pressure, and several other NCD risk factors are often higher in groups with low socioeconomic status than in those with high socioeconomic status; the social gradient also depends on the country's stage of economic development, cultural factors, and social and health policies. Social inequalities in risk factors account for more than half of inequalities in major NCDs, especially for cardiovascular diseases and lung cancer. People in low-income countries and those with low socioeconomic status also have worse access to health care for timely diagnosis and treatment of NCDs than do those in high-income countries or those with higher socioeconomic status. Reduction of NCDs in disadvantaged groups is necessary to achieve substantial decreases in the total NCD burden, making them mutually reinforcing priorities. Effective actions to reduce NCD inequalities include equitable early childhood development programmes and education; removal of barriers to secure employment in disadvantaged groups; comprehensive strategies for tobacco and alcohol control and for dietary salt reduction that target low socioeconomic status groups; universal, financially and physically accessible, high-quality primary care for delivery of preventive interventions and for early detection and treatment of NCDs; and universal insurance and other mechanisms to remove financial barriers to health care.

Anaemia of pregnancy, perinatal outcomes and children's developmental vulnerability: a whole-of-population study.

BACKGROUND: There is limited longitudinal data from high-income countries on the sequelae of anaemia during pregnancy. The aim of this study is to examine whether anaemia of pregnancy is associated with adverse perinatal outcomes and with children's developmental vulnerability. METHODS: We conducted a population-based study to link routinely collected government administrative data that involved all live births in the state of South Australia 1999-2005 (n = 124 061) and a subset for whom developmental data were collected during a national census of children attending their first year of school in 2009 (n = 13 654). Perinatal outcomes were recorded by midwives using a validated, standardised form. Development was recorded by schoolteachers using the Australian Early Development Index (AEDI). Children in the lowest 10% of AEDI scores are indicative of developmental vulnerability. RESULTS: There were 8764/124 061 (7.1%) cases of anaemia. After adjustment for a range of potentially confounding factors, anaemia of pregnancy was associated with a higher risk of fetal distress [incident rate ratio (IRR) 1.20 [95% CI 1.13, 1.27]] and preterm birth <37 weeks gestation (IRR 1.23 [1.15, 1.31]), slightly higher birthweight [14 g (2, 26)] and newborns were less likely to require resuscitation (IRR 0.94 [0.91, 0.097]). Anaemia of pregnancy was not associated with children's developmental vulnerability after adjustment for maternal, obstetric and sociodemographic covariables, either in complete case analyses (n = 11 949) or after imputation for missing data (n = 13 654). CONCLUSIONS: Anaemia of pregnancy is associated with perinatal complications but not with children's developmental vulnerability at school entry.

Effects of simulated interventions to improve school entry academic skills on socioeconomic inequalities in educational achievement.

Randomized controlled trial evidence shows that interventions before age 5 can improve skills necessary for educational success; the effect of these interventions on socioeconomic inequalities is unknown. Using trial effect estimates, and marginal structural models with data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (n = 11,764, imputed), simulated effects of plausible interventions to improve school entry academic skills on socioeconomic inequality in educational achievement at age 16 were examined. Progressive universal interventions (i.e., more intense intervention for those with greater need) to improve school entry academic skills could raise population levels of educational achievement by 5% and reduce absolute socioeconomic inequality in poor educational achievement by 15%.

Can screening 4-5 year olds accurately identify children who will have teacher-reported mental health problems when children are aged 6-7 years?

OBJECTIVE: To assess the screening accuracy of information obtained from parents of 4-5-year-old children for the purpose of identifying the children who have teacher-reported mental health problems when they are aged 6-7 years. METHOD: The study used data from the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children (LSAC) obtained when children were aged 4-5 years and 6-7 years. The level of children's mental health problems was assessed using the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) completed by parents when children were aged 4-5 years and by teachers when children were aged 6-7 years (n=2163). When children were aged 4-5 years, parenting skills were assessed using three questionnaires developed for the parent-completed LSAC questionnaire and maternal mental health was assessed using the Kessler Psychological Distress Scale (K6). RESULTS: When the level of parent-reported childhood mental health problems at 4-5 years old was used to identify children with teacher-reported mental health problems (i.e. a score in the "abnormal" range of the teacher-reported SDQ Total Difficulties Scale) when the children were aged 6-7 years, sensitivity was 26.8%, positive predictive value was 22.8%, and specificity was 92.9%. The addition of further information about the characteristics of children and their parents made only a small improvement to screening accuracy. CONCLUSIONS: Targeted interventions for preschool children may have the potential to play an important role in reducing the prevalence of mental health problems during the early school years. However, current capacity to accurately identify preschoolers who will experience teacher-reported mental health problems during the early school years is limited.

Industry self-regulation and TV advertising of foods to Australian children.

AIM: The aim of this study is to examine the amount of non-core (unhealthy) food advertising currently on Australian television (i) during children's programmes and viewing times; (ii) since the introduction of food industry self-regulatory initiatives in 2009; and (iii) whether advertising differs according to signatory status to industry initiatives. METHODS: We systematically searched PubMed, Embase.com and JSTOR (media/marketing) databases; grey literature; and reference lists of relevant articles for studies published since 2009 that reported on food advertising on Australian television. RESULTS: The title and abstract of 316 articles were screened, yielding 25 articles considered potentially eligible, of which eight met the pre-defined selection criteria. Meta-analysis was not possible because of temporal and methodological differences across studies. The advertising of non-core foods was found to be negligible during programmes with a C-(children's) classification but ranged from 1.5 to 6.5/h during children's peak viewing times. From 2006 to 2011, non-core food advertising decreased by 0.18 advertisements per hour every year, whereas fast food advertising increased by 0.09/h; however, these analyses are based on one study with only five time points. During children's viewing times, signatories to industry initiatives advertise non-core foods at higher rates than non-signatories. CONCLUSIONS: Although it is not possible to determine whether advertising has changed since the industry initiatives were introduced, signatories to the initiatives continue to advertise non-core foods at times when many children watch television. Future efforts to reduce children's exposure to food advertising should be focused on advertising during children's peak viewing times rather than by programme classifications.

Can items used in 4-year-old well-child visits predict children's health and school outcomes?

To examine whether items comprising a preschool well-child check for use by family doctors in Australia with 4-5-year old children predicts health and academic outcomes at 6-7 years. The well-child check includes mandatory (anthropometry, eye/vision, ear/hearing, dental, toileting, allergy problems) and non-mandatory (processed food consumption, low physical activity, motor, behaviour/mood problems) items. The predictive validity of mandatory and non-mandatory items measured at 4-5 years was examined using data from the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children. Outcomes at 6-7 years included overweight/obesity, asthma, health care/medication needs, general health, mental health problems, quality of life, teacher-reported mathematics and literacy ability (n = 2,280-2,787). Weight or height >90th centile at 4-5 years predicted overweight/obesity at 6-7 years with 60% sensitivity, 79% specificity and 40% positive predictive value (PPV). Mood/behaviour problems at 4-5 predicted mental health problems at 6-7 years with 86% sensitivity, 40% specificity and 8% PPV. Non-mandatory items improved the discrimination between children with and without mental health problems at 6-7 years (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.75 compared with 0.69 for mandatory items only), but was weak for most outcomes. Items used in a well-child health check were moderate predictors of overweight/obesity and mental health problems at 6-7 years, but poor predictors of other health and academic outcomes.

Impact of hormone replacement therapy use on mammographic screening outcomes.

PURPOSE: This study aims to measure the impact of HRT use at the time of screening on rates of screen-detected invasive breast cancer (IBC) and ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS), interval cancers and investigative procedures, within a well-established population-based mammography screening program. METHODS: Using South Australian BreastScreen data from 1998 to 2009 pertaining to 819,722 screening episodes, Poisson regression models were undertaken to estimate the incidence risk ratios (IRR) for various screening outcomes at both the first and subsequent screening rounds, among women who had been using HRT in the 6 months prior to screening compared with those who had not. RESULTS: Current HRT use was associated with increased risk of recall for assessment, biopsy procedures, and breast cancer diagnosis among BreastScreen participants. Risk of screen-detected breast cancer was increased at subsequent screening rounds (IRR = 1.30, 95% confidence interval 1.18-1.34), but not at women's first screening round (1.05, 0.88-1.25). This increased risk applied to IBC (1.35, 1.27-1.45), but not to DCIS (1.04, 0.89-1.23). Interval cancer risk was elevated among HRT users following both the first screen (1.77, 1.33-2.37) and subsequent screening episodes (1.92, 1.72-2.15). CONCLUSIONS: Increased risks of recall, biopsy rates, screen-detected, and interval cancers among HRT users have important implications for population-based breast cancer screening programs. Our findings support the concept that HRT use may increase the growth of preexisting cancers. Lack of effect on DCIS could imply different etiology or time frames for DCIS and IBC development or increased transition from preinvasive to invasive disease due to HRT use.

Diet quality of U.K. infants is associated with dietary, adiposity, cardiovascular, and cognitive outcomes measured at 7-8 years of age.

Whereas the influence of pregnancy diet and milk feeding on children's health and development is well characterized, the role of early food intake and eating behaviors is largely unexplored. This study aimed to determine whether the degree of adherence to complementary feeding guidelines was associated with dietary, obesity, cardiovascular, and cognitive outcomes at 7-8 y of age. Data were analyzed from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children using parent-completed dietary questionnaires at 6 mo of age to calculate a Complementary Feeding Utility Index score. Regression analysis was used to explore associations between the index score and dietary patterns derived via principal component analysis (n = 4326), body-mass index (BMI) (n = 4801), waist circumference (n = 4798), blood pressure (n = 4685), and lipids (n = 3232) measured at age 7 y; and intelligence quotient (IQ) measured at age 8 y (n = 4429) after adjustment for covariates. The index score was negatively associated with a "processed" dietary pattern (ß = -0.16; 95% CI: -0.20, -0.13; P < 0.001) but positively associated with a "health conscious" dietary pattern [ß = 0.18 (95% CI: 0.14, 0.21); P < 0.001]. A higher index score was also positively associated with total, verbal, and performance IQ scores at 8 y of age [ß = 1.92 (95%CI: 1.38, 2.47); P < 0.001 for total IQ). The index score was weakly associated with waist circumference [ß = -0.15 (95%CI: -0.31, -0.002); P = 0.046] and diastolic blood pressure [ß = -0.24 (95%CI: -0.47, -0.01); P = 0.043] at 7 y of age but was not associated with BMI or other cardiovascular risk factors. These findings suggest that adherence to current complementary feeding guidelines may have implications for some, but not all, health and development outcomes in childhood.

Application of multilevel models for predicting pain following root canal treatment.

OBJECTIVES: This study developed predictive models for one-week acute and six-month persistent pain following root canal treatment (RCT). An additional aim was to study the gain in predictive efficacy of models containing clinical factors only, over models containing sociodemographic characteristics. METHODS: A secondary data analysis of 708 patients who received RCTs was conducted. Three sets of predictors were used: (1) combined set, containing all predictors in the data set; (2) clinical set and (3) sociodemographic set. Missing data were handled by multiple imputation using the missing indicator method. The multilevel least absolute selection and shrinkage operator (LASSO) regression was used to select predictors into the final multilevel logistic models. Three measures, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and precision-recall curve (AUPRC) and calibration curves, were used to assess the predictive performance of the models. RESULTS: The selected-in factors in the final models, using LASSO regression, are related to pre- and intra-treatment clinical symptoms and pain experience. Predictive performance of the models remained the same with the inclusion (exclusion) of the socio-demographic factors. For predicting one-week outcome, the model built with combined set of predictors yielded the highest AUROC and AUPRC of 0.85 and 0.72, followed by the models built with clinical factors (AUROC = 0.82, AUPRC = 0.66). The lowest predictive ability was found in models with only sociodemographic characteristics (AUROC = 0.68, AUPRC = 0.40). Similar patterns were observed in predicting six-month outcome, where the AUROC for models with combined, clinical and sociodemographic sets of predictors were 0.85, 0.89 and 0.66, respectively, and the AUPRC were 0.48, 0.53 and 0.22, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Clinical factors such as the severity and experience of pre-operative and intra-operative pain were discovered important to the subsequent development of pain following RCTs. Adding sociodemographic characteristics to the models with clinical factors did not change the models' predictive performance or the proportion of explained variance.