Continuous Effector CD8(+) T Cell Production in a Controlled Persistent Infection Is Sustained by a Proliferative Intermediate Population.

Highly functional CD8(+) effector T (Teff) cells can persist in large numbers during controlled persistent infections, as exemplified by rare HIV-infected individuals who control the virus. Here we examined the cellular mechanisms that maintain ongoing T effector responses using a mouse model for persistent Toxoplasma gondii infection. In mice expressing the protective MHC-I molecule, H-2L(d), a dominant T effector response against a single parasite antigen was maintained without a contraction phase, correlating with ongoing presentation of the dominant antigen. Large numbers of short-lived Teff cells were continuously produced via a proliferative, antigen-dependent intermediate (Tint) population with a memory-effector hybrid phenotype. During an acute, resolved infection, decreasing antigen load correlated with a sharp drop in the Tint cell population and subsequent loss of the ongoing effector response. Vaccination approaches aimed at the development of Tint populations might prove effective against pathogens that lead to chronic infection.

Some deterministic and stochastic mathematical models of naïve T-cell homeostasis.

Humans live for decades, whereas mice live for months. Over these long timescales, naïve T cells die or divide infrequently enough that it makes sense to approximate death and division as instantaneous events. The population of T cells in the body is naturally divided into clonotypes; a clonotype is the set of cells that have identical T-cell receptors. While total numbers of cells, such as naïve CD4+ T cells, are large enough that ordinary differential equations are an appropriate starting point for mathematical models, the numbers of cells per clonotype are not. Here, we review a number of basic mathematical models of the maintenance of clonal diversity. As well as deterministic models, we discuss stochastic models that explicitly track the integer number of naïve T cells in many competing clonotypes over the lifetime of a mouse or human, including the effect of waning thymic production. Experimental evaluation of clonal diversity by bulk high-throughput sequencing has many difficulties, but the use of single-cell sequencing is restricted to numbers of cells many orders of magnitude smaller than the total number of T cells in the body. Mathematical questions associated with extrapolating from small samples are therefore key to advances in understanding the diversity of the repertoire of T cells. We conclude with some mathematical models on how to advance in this area.

Stochastic dynamics of Francisella tularensis infection and replication.

We study the pathogenesis of Francisella tularensis infection with an experimental mouse model, agent-based computation and mathematical analysis. Following inhalational exposure to Francisella tularensis SCHU S4, a small initial number of bacteria enter lung host cells and proliferate inside them, eventually destroying the host cell and releasing numerous copies that infect other cells. Our analysis of disease progression is based on a stochastic model of a population of infectious agents inside one host cell, extending the birth-and-death process by the occurrence of catastrophes: cell rupture events that affect all bacteria in a cell simultaneously. Closed expressions are obtained for the survival function of an infected cell, the number of bacteria released as a function of time after infection, and the total bacterial load. We compare our mathematical analysis with the results of agent-based computation and, making use of approximate Bayesian statistical inference, with experimental measurements carried out after murine aerosol infection with the virulent SCHU S4 strain of the bacterium Francisella tularensis, that infects alveolar macrophages. The posterior distribution of the rate of replication of intracellular bacteria is consistent with the estimate that the time between rounds of bacterial division is less than 6 hours in vivo.

Quantification of Ebola virus replication kinetics in vitro.

Mathematical modelling has successfully been used to provide quantitative descriptions of many viral infections, but for the Ebola virus, which requires biosafety level 4 facilities for experimentation, modelling can play a crucial role. Ebola virus modelling efforts have primarily focused on in vivo virus kinetics, e.g., in animal models, to aid the development of antivirals and vaccines. But, thus far, these studies have not yielded a detailed specification of the infection cycle, which could provide a foundational description of the virus kinetics and thus a deeper understanding of their clinical manifestation. Here, we obtain a diverse experimental data set of the Ebola virus infection in vitro, and then make use of Bayesian inference methods to fully identify parameters in a mathematical model of the infection. Our results provide insights into the distribution of time an infected cell spends in the eclipse phase (the period between infection and the start of virus production), as well as the rate at which infectious virions lose infectivity. We suggest how these results can be used in future models to describe co-infection with defective interfering particles, which are an emerging alternative therapeutic.

T cell and reticular network co-dependence in HIV infection.

Fibroblastic reticular cells (FRC) are arranged on a network in the T cell zone of lymph nodes, forming a scaffold for T cell migration, and providing survival factors, especially interleukin-7 (IL-7). Conversely, CD4(+) T cells are the major producers of lymphotoxin-ß (LT-ß), necessary for the construction and maintenance of the FRC network. This interdependence creates the possibility of a vicious cycle, perpetuating loss of both FRC and T cells. Furthermore, evidence that HIV infection is responsible for collagenation of the network suggests that long term loss of network function might be responsible for the attenuated recovery in T cell count seen in HIV patients undergoing antiretroviral therapy (ART). We present computational and mathematical models of this interaction mechanism and subsequent naive CD4(+) T-cell depletion in which (1) collagen deposition impedes access of naive T cells to IL-7 on the FRC and loss of IL-7 production by loss of FRC network itself, leading to the depletion of naive T cells through increased apoptosis; and (2) depletion of naive T cells as the source of LT-ß on which the FRC depend for survival leads to loss of the network, thereby amplifying and perpetuating the cycle of depletion of both naive T cells and stromal cells. Our computational model explicitly includes an FRC network and its cytokine exchange with a heterogeneous T-cell population. We also derive lumped models, in terms of partial differential equations and reduced to ordinary differential equations, that provide additional insight into the mechanisms at work. The central conclusions are that (1) damage to the reticular network, caused by HIV infection is a plausible mechanism for attenuated recovery post-ART; (2) within this, the production of T cell survival factors by FRCs may be the key rate-limiting step; and (3) the methods of model reduction and analysis presented are useful for both immunological studies and other contexts in which agent-based models are severely limited by computational cost.

How many TCR clonotypes does a body maintain?

We consider the lifetime of a T cell clonotype, the set of T cells with the same T cell receptor, from its thymic origin to its extinction in a multiclonal repertoire. Using published estimates of total cell numbers and thymic production rates, we calculate the mean number of cells per TCR clonotype, and the total number of clonotypes, in mice and humans. When there is little peripheral division, as in a mouse, the number of cells per clonotype is small and governed by the number of cells with identical TCR that exit the thymus. In humans, peripheral division is important and a clonotype may survive for decades, during which it expands to comprise many cells. We therefore devise and analyse a computational model of homeostasis of a multiclonal population. Each T cell in the model competes for self pMHC stimuli, cells of any one clonotype only recognising a small fraction of the many subsets of stimuli. A constant mean total number of cells is maintained by a balance between cell division and death, and a stable number of clonotypes by a balance between thymic production of new clonotypes and extinction of existing ones. The number of distinct clonotypes in a human body may be smaller than the total number of naive T cells by only one order of magnitude.

How many dendritic cells are required to initiate a T-cell response?

T-cell activation in lymph nodes relies on encounters with antigen (Ag)-bearing dendritic cells (DCs) but the number of DCs required to initiate an immune response is unknown. Here we have used a combination of flow cytometry, 2-photon imaging, and computational modeling to quantify the probability of T cell-DC encounters. We calculated that the chance for a T cell residing 24 hours in a murine popliteal lymph nodes to interact with a DC was 8%, 58%, and 99% in the presence of 10, 100, and 1000 Ag-bearing DCs, respectively. Our results reveal the existence of a threshold in DC numbers below which T-cell responses fail to be elicited for probabilistic reasons. In mice and probably humans, we estimate that a minimum of 85 DCs are required to initiate a T-cell response when starting from precursor frequency of 10(-6). Our results have implications for the rational design of DC-based vaccines.

A mathematical perspective on CD4(+) T cell quorum-sensing.

We analyse a mathematical model of the peripheral CD4(+) T cell population, based on a quorum-sensing mechanism, by which an optimum number of regulatory T cells can be established and maintained. We divide the population of a single T cell receptor specificity into four pools: naive, IL-2 producing, IL-2 non-producing, and regulatory CD4(+) T cells. Proliferation, death and differentiation of cells are introduced as transition probabilities of a stochastic Markov model, with the assumption that the amount of IL-2 available to CD4(+) T cells is proportional to the size of the population of IL-2 producing CD4(+) T cells. We explore the population dynamics both in the absence and in the presence of specific antigen. We study the establishment of the peripheral CD4(+) T cell pool from thymic output in the absence of antigen, and its return to homeostasis after an immune challenge, by steady state analysis of the deterministic approximation. The number of regulatory T cells at steady state is greater in the presence of antigen than in its absence. We also consider the stochastic dynamics of the model after an immune challenge, in particular the behaviour leading to ultimate extinction of the IL-2 producing and regulatory T cell populations.

The reproduction number and its probability distribution for stochastic viral dynamics.

We consider stochastic models of individual infected cells. The reproduction number, R, is understood as a random variable representing the number of new cells infected by one initial infected cell in an otherwise susceptible (target cell) population. Variability in R results partly from heterogeneity in the viral burst size (the number of viral progeny generated from an infected cell during its lifetime), which depends on the distribution of cellular lifetimes and on the mechanism of virion release. We analyse viral dynamics models with an eclipse phase: the period of time after a cell is infected but before it is capable of releasing virions. The duration of the eclipse, or the subsequent infectious, phase is non-exponential, but composed of stages. We derive the probability distribution of the reproduction number for these viral dynamics models, and show it is a negative binomial distribution in the case of constant viral release from infectious cells, and under the assumption of an excess of target cells. In a deterministic model, the ultimate in-host establishment or extinction of the viral infection depends entirely on whether the mean reproduction number is greater than, or less than, one, respectively. Here, the probability of extinction is determined by the probability distribution of R, not simply its mean value. In particular, we show that in some cases the probability of infection is not an increasing function of the mean reproduction number.

Quantifying in vitro B. anthracis growth and PA production and decay: a mathematical modelling approach.

Protective antigen (PA) is a protein produced by Bacillus anthracis. It forms part of the anthrax toxin and is a key immunogen in US and UK anthrax vaccines. In this study, we have conducted experiments to quantify PA in the supernatants of cultures of B. anthracis Sterne strain, which is the strain used in the manufacture of the UK anthrax vaccine. Then, for the first time, we quantify PA production and degradation via mathematical modelling and Bayesian statistical techniques, making use of this new experimental data as well as two other independent published data sets. We propose a single mathematical model, in terms of delay differential equations (DDEs), which can explain the in vitro dynamics of all three data sets. Since we did not heat activate the B. anthracis spores prior to inoculation, germination occurred much slower in our experiments, allowing us to calibrate two additional parameters with respect to the other data sets. Our model is able to distinguish between natural PA decay and that triggered by bacteria via proteases. There is promising consistency between the different independent data sets for most of the parameter estimates. The quantitative characterisation of B. anthracis PA production and degradation obtained here will contribute towards the ambition to include a realistic description of toxin dynamics, the host immune response, and anti-toxin treatments in future mechanistic models of anthrax infection.

A story of viral co-infection, co-transmission and co-feeding in ticks: how to compute an invasion reproduction number.

With a single circulating vector-borne virus, the basic reproduction number incorporates contributions from tick-to-tick (co-feeding), tick-to-host and host-to-tick transmission routes. With two different circulating vector-borne viral strains, resident and invasive, and under the assumption that co-feeding is the only transmission route in a tick population, the invasion reproduction number depends on whether the model system of ordinary differential equations possesses the property of neutrality. We show that a simple model, with two populations of ticks infected with one strain, resident or invasive, and one population of co-infected ticks, does not have Alizon's neutrality property. We present model alternatives that are capable of representing the invasion potential of a novel strain by including populations of ticks dually infected with the same strain. The invasion reproduction number is analysed with the next-generation method and via numerical simulations.

Multi-variate model of T cell clonotype competition and homeostasis.

Diversity of the naive T cell repertoire is maintained by competition for stimuli provided by self-peptides bound to major histocompatibility complexes (self-pMHCs). We extend an existing bi-variate competition model to a multi-variate model of the dynamics of multiple T cell clonotypes which share stimuli. In order to understand the late-time behaviour of the system, we analyse: (i) the dynamics until the extinction of the first clonotype, (ii) the time to the first extinction event, (iii) the probability of extinction of each clonotype, and (iv) the size of the surviving clonotypes when the first extinction event takes place. We also find the probability distribution of the number of cell divisions per clonotype before its extinction. The mean size of a new clonotype at quasi-steady state is an increasing function of the stimulus available to it, and a decreasing function of the fraction of stimuli it shares with other clonotypes. Thus, the probability of, and time to, extinction of a new clonotype entering the pool of T cell clonotypes is determined by the extent of competition for stimuli it experiences and by its initial number of cells.

T-cell movement on the reticular network.

The idea that the apparently random motion of T cells in lymph nodes is a result of movement on a reticular network (RN) has received support from dynamic imaging experiments and theoretical studies. We present a mathematical representation of the RN consisting of edges connecting vertices that are randomly distributed in three-dimensional space, and models of lymphocyte movement on such networks including constant speed motion along edges and Brownian motion, not in three-dimensions, but only along edges. The simplest model, in which a cell moves with a constant speed along edges, is consistent with mean-squared displacement proportional to time over intervals long enough to include several changes of direction. A non-random distribution of turning angles is one consequence of motion on a preformed network. Confining cell movement to a network does not, in itself, increase the frequency of cell-cell encounters.

Diffusion in a disk with inclusion: Evaluating Green's functions.

We give exact Green's functions in two space dimensions. We work in a scaled domain that is a circle of unit radius with a smaller circular "inclusion", of radius a, removed, without restriction on the size or position of the inclusion. We consider the two cases where one of the two boundaries is absorbing and the other is reflecting. Given a particle with diffusivity D, in a circle with radius R, the mean time to reach the absorbing boundary is a function of the initial condition, given by the integral of Green's function over the domain. We scale to a circle of unit radius, then transform to bipolar coordinates. We show the equivalence of two different series expansions, and obtain closed expressions that are not series expansions.

Counting generations in birth and death processes with competing Erlang and exponential waiting times.

Lymphocyte populations, stimulated in vitro or in vivo, grow as cells divide. Stochastic models are appropriate because some cells undergo multiple rounds of division, some die, and others of the same type in the same conditions do not divide at all. If individual cells behave independently, then each cell can be imagined as sampling from a probability density of times to division and death. The exponential density is the most mathematically and computationally convenient choice. It has the advantage of satisfying the memoryless property, consistent with a Markov process, but it overestimates the probability of short division times. With the aim of preserving the advantages of a Markovian framework while improving the representation of experimentally-observed division times, we consider a multi-stage model of cellular division and death. We use Erlang-distributed (or, more generally, phase-type distributed) times to division, and exponentially distributed times to death. We classify cells into generations, using the rule that the daughters of cells in generation n are in generation [Formula: see text]. In some circumstances, our representation is equivalent to established models of lymphocyte dynamics. We find the growth rate of the cell population by calculating the proportions of cells by stage and generation. The exponent describing the late-time cell population growth, and the criterion for extinction of the population, differs from what would be expected if N steps with rate [Formula: see text] were equivalent to a single step of rate [Formula: see text]. We link with a published experimental dataset, where cell counts were reported after T cells were transferred to lymphopenic mice, using Approximate Bayesian Computation. In the comparison, the death rate is assumed to be proportional to the generation and the Erlang time to division for generation 0 is allowed to differ from that of subsequent generations. The multi-stage representation is preferred to a simple exponential in posterior distributions, and the mean time to first division is estimated to be longer than the mean time to subsequent divisions.

Why are cell populations maintained via multiple compartments?

We consider the maintenance of 'product' cell populations from 'progenitor' cells via a sequence of one or more cell types, or compartments, where each cell's fate is chosen stochastically. If there is only one compartment then large amplification, that is, a large ratio of product cells to progenitors comes with disadvantages. The product cell population is dominated by large families (cells descended from the same progenitor) and many generations separate, on average, product cells from progenitors. These disadvantages are avoided using suitably constructed sequences of compartments: the amplification factor of a sequence is the product of the amplification factors of each compartment, while the average number of generations is a sum over contributions from each compartment. Passing through multiple compartments is, in fact, an efficient way to maintain a product cell population from a small flux of progenitors, avoiding excessive clonality and minimizing the number of rounds of division en route. We use division, exit and death rates, estimated from measurements of single-positive thymocytes, to choose illustrative parameter values in the single-compartment case. We also consider a five-compartment model of thymocyte differentiation, from double-negative precursors to single-positive product cells.

Step-by-step comparison of ordinary differential equation and agent-based approaches to pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic models.

Mathematical models in oncology aid in the design of drugs and understanding of their mechanisms of action by simulation of drug biodistribution, drug effects, and interaction between tumor and healthy cells. The traditional approach in pharmacometrics is to develop and validate ordinary differential equation models to quantify trends at the population level. In this approach, time-course of biological measurements is modeled continuously, assuming a homogenous population. Another approach, agent-based models, focuses on the behavior and fate of biological entities at the individual level, which subsequently could be summarized to reflect the population level. Heterogeneous cell populations and discrete events are simulated, and spatial distribution can be incorporated. In this tutorial, an agent-based model is presented and compared to an ordinary differential equation model for a tumor efficacy model inhibiting the pERK pathway. We highlight strengths, weaknesses, and opportunities of each approach.

Fusion and fission events regulate endosome maturation and viral escape.

Endosomes are intracellular vesicles that mediate the communication of the cell with its extracellular environment. They are an essential part of the cell's machinery regulating intracellular trafficking via the endocytic pathway. Many viruses, which in order to replicate require a host cell, attach themselves to the cellular membrane; an event which usually initiates uptake of a viral particle through the endocytic pathway. In this way viruses hijack endosomes for their journey towards intracellular sites of replication and avoid degradation without host detection by escaping the endosomal compartment. Recent experimental techniques have defined the role of endosomal maturation in the ability of enveloped viruses to release their genetic material into the cytoplasm. Endosome maturation depends on a family of small hydrolase enzymes (or GTPases) called Rab proteins, arranged on the cytoplasmic surface of its membrane. Here, we model endosomes as intracellular compartments described by two variables (its levels of active Rab5 and Rab7 proteins) and which can undergo coagulation (or fusion) and fragmentation (or fission). The key element in our approach is the "per-cell endosomal distribution" and its dynamical (Boltzmann) equation. The Boltzmann equation allows us to derive the dynamics of the total number of endosomes in a cell, as well as the mean and the standard deviation of its active Rab5 and Rab7 levels. We compare our mathematical results with experiments of Dengue viral escape from endosomes. The relationship between endosomal active Rab levels and pH suggests a mechanism that can account for the observed variability in viral escape times, which in turn regulate the viability of a viral intracellular infection.

Quantification of Type I Interferon Inhibition by Viral Proteins: Ebola Virus as a Case Study.

Type I interferons (IFNs) are cytokines with both antiviral properties and protective roles in innate immune responses to viral infection. They induce an antiviral cellular state and link innate and adaptive immune responses. Yet, viruses have evolved different strategies to inhibit such host responses. One of them is the existence of viral proteins which subvert type I IFN responses to allow quick and successful viral replication, thus, sustaining the infection within a host. We propose mathematical models to characterise the intra-cellular mechanisms involved in viral protein antagonism of type I IFN responses, and compare three different molecular inhibition strategies. We study the Ebola viral protein, VP35, with this mathematical approach. Approximate Bayesian computation sequential Monte Carlo, together with experimental data and the mathematical models proposed, are used to perform model calibration, as well as model selection of the different hypotheses considered. Finally, we assess if model parameters are identifiable and discuss how such identifiability can be improved with new experimental data.

Quantifying T Cell Cross-Reactivity: Influenza and Coronaviruses.

If viral strains are sufficiently similar in their immunodominant epitopes, then populations of cross-reactive T cells may be boosted by exposure to one strain and provide protection against infection by another at a later date. This type of pre-existing immunity may be important in the adaptive immune response to influenza and to coronaviruses. Patterns of recognition of epitopes by T cell clonotypes (a set of cells sharing the same T cell receptor) are represented as edges on a bipartite network. We describe different methods of constructing bipartite networks that exhibit cross-reactivity, and the dynamics of the T cell repertoire in conditions of homeostasis, infection and re-infection. Cross-reactivity may arise simply by chance, or because immunodominant epitopes of different strains are structurally similar. We introduce a circular space of epitopes, so that T cell cross-reactivity is a quantitative measure of the overlap between clonotypes that recognize similar (that is, close in epitope space) epitopes.