Global Effect of Modifiable Risk Factors on Cardiovascular Disease and Mortality.

BACKGROUND: Five modifiable risk factors are associated with cardiovascular disease and death from any cause. Studies using individual-level data to evaluate the regional and sex-specific prevalence of the risk factors and their effect on these outcomes are lacking. METHODS: We pooled and harmonized individual-level data from 112 cohort studies conducted in 34 countries and 8 geographic regions participating in the Global Cardiovascular Risk Consortium. We examined associations between the risk factors (body-mass index, systolic blood pressure, non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, current smoking, and diabetes) and incident cardiovascular disease and death from any cause using Cox regression analyses, stratified according to geographic region, age, and sex. Population-attributable fractions were estimated for the 10-year incidence of cardiovascular disease and 10-year all-cause mortality. RESULTS: Among 1,518,028 participants (54.1% of whom were women) with a median age of 54.4 years, regional variations in the prevalence of the five modifiable risk factors were noted. Incident cardiovascular disease occurred in 80,596 participants during a median follow-up of 7.3 years (maximum, 47.3), and 177,369 participants died during a median follow-up of 8.7 years (maximum, 47.6). For all five risk factors combined, the aggregate global population-attributable fraction of the 10-year incidence of cardiovascular disease was 57.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 52.4 to 62.1) among women and 52.6% (95% CI, 49.0 to 56.1) among men, and the corresponding values for 10-year all-cause mortality were 22.2% (95% CI, 16.8 to 27.5) and 19.1% (95% CI, 14.6 to 23.6). CONCLUSIONS: Harmonized individual-level data from a global cohort showed that 57.2% and 52.6% of cases of incident cardiovascular disease among women and men, respectively, and 22.2% and 19.1% of deaths from any cause among women and men, respectively, may be attributable to five modifiable risk factors. (Funded by the German Center for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK); ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT05466825.).

Metabolic Communication by SGLT2 Inhibition.

BACKGROUND: SGLT2 (sodium-glucose cotransporter 2) inhibitors (SGLT2i) can protect the kidneys and heart, but the underlying mechanism remains poorly understood. METHODS: To gain insights on primary effects of SGLT2i that are not confounded by pathophysiologic processes or are secondary to improvement by SGLT2i, we performed an in-depth proteomics, phosphoproteomics, and metabolomics analysis by integrating signatures from multiple metabolic organs and body fluids after 1 week of SGLT2i treatment of nondiabetic as well as diabetic mice with early and uncomplicated hyperglycemia. RESULTS: Kidneys of nondiabetic mice reacted most strongly to SGLT2i in terms of proteomic reconfiguration, including evidence for less early proximal tubule glucotoxicity and a broad downregulation of the apical uptake transport machinery (including sodium, glucose, urate, purine bases, and amino acids), supported by mouse and human SGLT2 interactome studies. SGLT2i affected heart and liver signaling, but more reactive organs included the white adipose tissue, showing more lipolysis, and, particularly, the gut microbiome, with a lower relative abundance of bacteria taxa capable of fermenting phenylalanine and tryptophan to cardiovascular uremic toxins, resulting in lower plasma levels of these compounds (including p-cresol sulfate). SGLT2i was detectable in murine stool samples and its addition to human stool microbiota fermentation recapitulated some murine microbiome findings, suggesting direct inhibition of fermentation of aromatic amino acids and tryptophan. In mice lacking SGLT2 and in patients with decompensated heart failure or diabetes, the SGLT2i likewise reduced circulating p-cresol sulfate, and p-cresol impaired contractility and rhythm in human induced pluripotent stem cell-derived engineered heart tissue. CONCLUSIONS: SGLT2i reduced microbiome formation of uremic toxins such as p-cresol sulfate and thereby their body exposure and need for renal detoxification, which, combined with direct kidney effects of SGLT2i, including less proximal tubule glucotoxicity and a broad downregulation of apical transporters (including sodium, amino acid, and urate uptake), provides a metabolic foundation for kidney and cardiovascular protection.

Safety and efficacy of long-term sodium channel blocker therapy for early rhythm control: the EAST-AFNET 4 trial.

AIMS: Clinical concerns exist about the potential proarrhythmic effects of the sodium channel blockers (SCBs) flecainide and propafenone in patients with cardiovascular disease. Sodium channel blockers were used to deliver early rhythm control (ERC) therapy in EAST-AFNET 4. METHODS AND RESULTS: We analysed the primary safety outcome (death, stroke, or serious adverse events related to rhythm control therapy) and primary efficacy outcome (cardiovascular death, stroke, and hospitalization for worsening of heart failure (HF) or acute coronary syndrome) during SCB intake for patients with ERC (n = 1395) in EAST-AFNET 4. The protocol discouraged flecainide and propafenone in patients with reduced left ventricular ejection fraction and suggested stopping therapy upon QRS prolongation >25% on therapy. Flecainide or propafenone was given to 689 patients [age 69 (8) years; CHA2DS2-VASc 3.2 (1); 177 with HF; 41 with prior myocardial infarction, coronary artery bypass graft, or percutaneous coronary intervention; 26 with left ventricular hypertrophy >15 mm; median therapy duration 1153 [237, 1828] days]. The primary efficacy outcome occurred less often in patients treated with SCB [3/100 (99/3316) patient-years] than in patients who never received SCB [SCBnever 4.9/100 (150/3083) patient-years, P < 0.001]. There were numerically fewer primary safety outcomes in patients receiving SCB [2.9/100 (96/3359) patient-years] than in SCBnever patients [4.2/100 (135/3220) patient-years, adjusted P = 0.015]. Sinus rhythm at 2 years was similar between groups [SCB 537/610 (88); SCBnever 472/579 (82)]. CONCLUSION: Long-term therapy with flecainide or propafenone appeared to be safe in the EAST-AFNET 4 trial to deliver effective ERC therapy, including in selected patients with stable cardiovascular disease such as coronary artery disease and stable HF. Clinical Trial Registration ISRCTN04708680, NCT01288352, EudraCT2010-021258-20, www.easttrial.org.

Prognostic Value of Cardiovascular Biomarkers in the Population.

Importance: Identification of individuals at high risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease within the population is important to inform primary prevention strategies. Objective: To evaluate the prognostic value of routinely available cardiovascular biomarkers when added to established risk factors. Design, Setting, and Participants: Individual-level analysis including data on cardiovascular biomarkers from 28 general population-based cohorts from 12 countries and 4 continents with assessments by participant age. The median follow-up was 11.8 years. Exposure: Measurement of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I, high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, B-type natriuretic peptide, or high-sensitivity C-reactive protein. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, which included all fatal and nonfatal events. The secondary outcomes were all-cause mortality, heart failure, ischemic stroke, and myocardial infarction. Subdistribution hazard ratios (HRs) for the association of biomarkers and outcomes were calculated after adjustment for established risk factors. The additional predictive value of the biomarkers was assessed using the C statistic and reclassification analyses. Results: The analyses included 164 054 individuals (median age, 53.1 years [IQR, 42.7-62.9 years] and 52.4% were women). There were 17 211 incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease events. All biomarkers were significantly associated with incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (subdistribution HR per 1-SD change, 1.13 [95% CI, 1.11-1.16] for high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I; 1.18 [95% CI, 1.12-1.23] for high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T; 1.21 [95% CI, 1.18-1.24] for N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide; 1.14 [95% CI, 1.08-1.22] for B-type natriuretic peptide; and 1.14 [95% CI, 1.12-1.16] for high-sensitivity C-reactive protein) and all secondary outcomes. The addition of each single biomarker to a model that included established risk factors improved the C statistic. For 10-year incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in younger people (aged <65 years), the combination of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein resulted in a C statistic improvement from 0.812 (95% CI, 0.8021-0.8208) to 0.8194 (95% CI, 0.8089-0.8277). The combination of these biomarkers also improved reclassification compared with the conventional model. Improvements in risk prediction were most pronounced for the secondary outcomes of heart failure and all-cause mortality. The incremental value of biomarkers was greater in people aged 65 years or older vs younger people. Conclusions and Relevance: Cardiovascular biomarkers were strongly associated with fatal and nonfatal cardiovascular events and mortality. The addition of biomarkers to established risk factors led to only a small improvement in risk prediction metrics for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, but was more favorable for heart failure and mortality.

SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination-Induced Immunogenicity in Heart Transplant Recipients.

Among heart transplant (HT) recipients, a reduced immunological response to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination has been reported. We aimed to assess the humoral and T-cell response to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in HT recipients to understand determinants of immunogenicity. HT recipients were prospectively enrolled from January 2021 until March 2022. Anti-SARS-CoV-2-Spike IgG levels were quantified after two and three doses of a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine (BNT162b2, mRNA1273, or AZD1222). Spike-specific T-cell responses were assessed using flow cytometry. Ninety-one patients were included in the study (69% male, median age 55 years, median time from HT to first vaccination 6.1 years). Seroconversion rates were 34% after two and 63% after three doses. Older patient age (p = 0.003) and shorter time since HT (p = 0.001) were associated with lower antibody concentrations after three vaccinations. There were no associations between vaccine types or immunosuppressive regimens and humoral response, except for prednisolone, which was predictive of a reduced response after two (p = 0.001), but not after three doses (p = 0.434). A T-cell response was observed in 50% after two and in 74% after three doses. Despite three vaccine doses, a large proportion of HT recipients exhibits a reduced immune response. Additional strategies are desirable to improve vaccine immunogenicity in this vulnerable group of patients.

Multi-organ assessment in mainly non-hospitalized individuals after SARS-CoV-2 infection: The Hamburg City Health Study COVID programme.

AIMS: Long-term sequelae may occur after SARS-CoV-2 infection. We comprehensively assessed organ-specific functions in individuals after mild to moderate SARS-CoV-2 infection compared with controls from the general population. METHODS AND RESULTS: Four hundred and forty-three mainly non-hospitalized individuals were examined in median 9.6 months after the first positive SARS-CoV-2 test and matched for age, sex, and education with 1328 controls from a population-based German cohort. We assessed pulmonary, cardiac, vascular, renal, and neurological status, as well as patient-related outcomes. Bodyplethysmography documented mildly lower total lung volume (regression coefficient -3.24, adjusted P = 0.014) and higher specific airway resistance (regression coefficient 8.11, adjusted P = 0.001) after SARS-CoV-2 infection. Cardiac assessment revealed slightly lower measures of left (regression coefficient for left ventricular ejection fraction on transthoracic echocardiography -0.93, adjusted P = 0.015) and right ventricular function and higher concentrations of cardiac biomarkers (factor 1.14 for high-sensitivity troponin, 1.41 for N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, adjusted P ≤ 0.01) in post-SARS-CoV-2 patients compared with matched controls, but no significant differences in cardiac magnetic resonance imaging findings. Sonographically non-compressible femoral veins, suggesting deep vein thrombosis, were substantially more frequent after SARS-CoV-2 infection (odds ratio 2.68, adjusted P < 0.001). Glomerular filtration rate (regression coefficient -2.35, adjusted P = 0.019) was lower in post-SARS-CoV-2 cases. Relative brain volume, prevalence of cerebral microbleeds, and infarct residuals were similar, while the mean cortical thickness was higher in post-SARS-CoV-2 cases. Cognitive function was not impaired. Similarly, patient-related outcomes did not differ. CONCLUSION: Subjects who apparently recovered from mild to moderate SARS-CoV-2 infection show signs of subclinical multi-organ affection related to pulmonary, cardiac, thrombotic, and renal function without signs of structural brain damage, neurocognitive, or quality-of-life impairment. Respective screening may guide further patient management.

Early Rhythm Control Therapy in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation and Heart Failure.

BACKGROUND: Even on optimal therapy, many patients with heart failure and atrial fibrillation experience cardiovascular complications. Additional treatments are needed to reduce these events, especially in patients with heart failure and preserved left ventricular ejection fraction. METHODS: This prespecified subanalysis of the randomized EAST-AFNET4 trial (Early Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation for Stroke Prevention Trial) assessed the effect of systematic, early rhythm control therapy (ERC; using antiarrhythmic drugs or catheter ablation) compared with usual care (allowing rhythm control therapy to improve symptoms) on the 2 primary outcomes of the trial and on selected secondary outcomes in patients with heart failure, defined as heart failure symptoms New York Heart Association II to III or left ventricular ejection fraction [LVEF] <50%. RESULTS: This analysis included 798 patients (300 [37.6%] female, median age 71.0 [64.0, 76.0] years, 785 with known LVEF). The majority of patients (n=442) had heart failure and preserved LVEF (LVEF≥50%; mean LVEF 61±6.3%), the others had heart failure with midrange ejection fraction (n=211; LVEF 40%-49%; mean LVEF 44 ± 2.9%) or heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (n=132; LVEF<40%; mean LVEF 31±5.5%). Over the 5.1-year median follow-up, the composite primary outcome of cardiovascular death, stroke, or hospitalization for worsening of heart failure or for acute coronary syndrome occurred less often in patients randomly assigned to ERC (94/396; 5.7 per 100 patient-years) compared with patients randomly assigned to usual care (130/402; 7.9 per 100 patient-years; hazard ratio, 0.74 [0.56-0.97]; P=0.03), not altered by heart failure status (interaction P value=0.63). The primary safety outcome (death, stroke, or serious adverse events related to rhythm control therapy) occurred in 71 of 396 (17.9%) patients with heart failure randomly assigned to ERC and in 87 of 402 (21.6%) patients with heart failure randomly assigned to usual care (hazard ratio, 0.85 [0.62-1.17]; P=0.33). LVEF improved in both groups (LVEF change at 2 years: ERC 5.3±11.6%, usual care 4.9±11.6%, P=0.43). ERC also improved the composite outcome of death or hospitalization for worsening of heart failure. CONCLUSIONS: Rhythm control therapy conveys clinical benefit when initiated within 1 year of diagnosing atrial fibrillation in patients with signs or symptoms of heart failure. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT01288352. URL: http://www.controlled-trials.com; Unique identifier: ISRCTN04708680. URL: https://www.clinicaltrialsregister.eu; Unique identifier: 2010-021258-20.

Alcohol consumption, cardiac biomarkers, and risk of atrial fibrillation and adverse outcomes.

AIMS: There is inconsistent evidence on the relation of alcohol intake with incident atrial fibrillation (AF), in particular at lower doses. We assessed the association between alcohol consumption, biomarkers, and incident AF across the spectrum of alcohol intake in European cohorts. METHODS AND RESULTS: In a community-based pooled cohort, we followed 107 845 individuals for the association between alcohol consumption, including types of alcohol and drinking patterns, and incident AF. We collected information on classical cardiovascular risk factors and incident heart failure (HF) and measured the biomarkers N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide and high-sensitivity troponin I. The median age of individuals was 47.8 years, 48.3% were men. The median alcohol consumption was 3 g/day. N = 5854 individuals developed AF (median follow-up time: 13.9 years). In a sex- and cohort-stratified Cox regression analysis alcohol consumption was non-linearly and positively associated with incident AF. The hazard ratio for one drink (12 g) per day was 1.16, 95% CI 1.11-1.22, P < 0.001. Associations were similar across types of alcohol. In contrast, alcohol consumption at lower doses was associated with reduced risk of incident HF. The association between alcohol consumption and incident AF was neither fully explained by cardiac biomarker concentrations nor by the occurrence of HF. CONCLUSIONS: In contrast to other cardiovascular diseases such as HF, even modest habitual alcohol intake of 1.2 drinks/day was associated with an increased risk of AF, which needs to be considered in AF prevention.

SGLT2 Inhibitors and Peripheral Vascular Events: A Review of the Literature.

Fifty articles comprising 18 randomized controlled trials (RCTs), 16 observational studies, and 16 meta-analyses on the safety and effectiveness of sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors were evaluated in the current review. Only one-fourth of the cohorts of recent trials had peripheral arterial disease (PAD), whereas this subgroup was at high risk for amputations. Despite a remarkable heterogeneity of RCTs, only 2 trials on canagliflozin suggested excess amputation rates, whereas several observational studies generated conflicting conclusions and remained short on possible explanations. Preliminary evidence from observational research suggested that patients with PAD may even benefit from SGLT-2 inhibitor treatment due to lower observed heart failure hospitalization rates.

CMR-Based Risk Stratification of Sudden Cardiac Death and Use of Implantable Cardioverter-Defibrillator in Non-Ischemic Cardiomyopathy.

Non-ischemic cardiomyopathy (NICM) is one of the most important entities for arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death (SCD). Previous studies suggest a lower benefit of implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) therapy in patients with NICM as compared to ischemic cardiomyopathy (ICM). Nevertheless, current guidelines do not differentiate between the two subgroups in recommending ICD implantation. Hence, risk stratification is required to determine the subgroup of patients with NICM who will likely benefit from ICD therapy. Various predictors have been proposed, among others genetic mutations, left-ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), left-ventricular end-diastolic volume (LVEDD), and T-wave alternans (TWA). In addition to these parameters, cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging (CMR) has the potential to further improve risk stratification. CMR allows the comprehensive analysis of cardiac function and myocardial tissue composition. A range of CMR parameters have been associated with SCD. Applicable examples include late gadolinium enhancement (LGE), T1 relaxation times, and myocardial strain. This review evaluates the epidemiological aspects of SCD in NICM, the role of CMR for risk stratification, and resulting indications for ICD implantation.

Cardiac Troponin I and Incident Stroke in European Cohorts: Insights From the BiomarCaRE Project.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Stroke is a common cause of death and a leading cause of disability and morbidity. Stroke risk assessment remains a challenge, but circulating biomarkers may improve risk prediction. Controversial evidence is available on the predictive ability of troponin concentrations and the risk of stroke in the community. Furthermore, reports on the predictive value of troponin concentrations for different stroke subtypes are scarce. METHODS: High-sensitivity cardiac troponin I (hsTnI) concentrations were assessed in 82 881 individuals (median age, 50.7 years; 49.7% men) free of stroke or myocardial infarction at baseline from 9 prospective European community cohorts. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to determine relative risks, followed by measures of discrimination and reclassification using 10-fold cross-validation to control for overoptimism. Follow-up was based upon linkage with national hospitalization registries and causes of death registries. RESULTS: Over a median follow-up of 12.7 years, 3033 individuals were diagnosed with incident nonfatal or fatal stroke (n=1654 ischemic strokes, n=612 hemorrhagic strokes, and n=767 indeterminate strokes). In multivariable regression models, hsTnI concentrations were associated with overall stroke (hazard ratio per 1-SD increase, 1.15 [95% CI, 1.10-1.21]), ischemic stroke (hazard ratio, 1.14 [95% CI, 1.09-1.21]), and hemorrhagic stroke (hazard ratio, 1.10 [95% CI, 1.01-1.20]). Adding hsTnI concentrations to classical cardiovascular risk factors (C indices, 0.809, 0.840, and 0.736 for overall, ischemic, and hemorrhagic stroke, respectively) increased the C index significantly but modestly. In individuals with an intermediate 10-year risk (5%-20%), the net reclassification improvement for overall stroke was 0.038 (P=0.021). CONCLUSIONS: Elevated hsTnI concentrations are associated with an increased risk of incident stroke in the community, irrespective of stroke subtype. Adding hsTnI concentrations to classical risk factors only modestly improved estimation of 10-year risk of stroke in the overall cohort but might be of some value in individuals at an intermediate risk.

High-sensitivity troponin I and all-cause mortality in patients with stable COPD: an analysis of the COSYCONET study.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a leading cause of death with a considerable part of the population dying from cardiovascular diseases. High-sensitivity troponin I (hs-TnI) might help to better identify COPD patients at high risk of mortality. We aimed to study the predictive value of hs-TnI for all-cause mortality beyond established COPD assessments, and after consideration of relevant cardiovascular risk factors and prevalent cardiovascular diseases, in a broad population with stable COPD.Circulating hs-TnI concentrations together with a wide range of respiratory and cardiovascular markers were evaluated in 2085 patients with stable COPD across all severity stages enrolled in the multicentre COSYCONET cohort study. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality over 3 years of follow-up.Hs-TnI was detectable in 2020 (96.9%) patients. The median hs-TnI concentration was 3.8 ng·L-1 (interquartile range 2.5-6.6 ng·L-1), with levels above the 99th percentile reference limit of 27 ng·L-1 observed in 1.8% of patients. In Cox regression analyses including adjustments for airflow limitation, dyspnoea grade, exercise capacity and history of severe exacerbations, as well as traditional cardiovascular risk factors, estimated glomerular filtration rate, ankle-brachial index, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptides and prevalent cardiovascular diseases, hs-TnI was a significant predictor for all-cause mortality, both as a continuous variable (hazard ratio (HR) for log hs-TnI 1.28, 95% CI 1.01-1.62) and categorised according to the cut-off of 6 ng·L-1 (HR 1.63, 95% CI 1.10-2.42).In patients with stable COPD, hs-TnI is a strong predictor of all-cause mortality beyond established COPD mortality predictors, and independent of a broad range of cardiovascular risk factors and prevalent cardiovascular diseases. Hs-TnI concentrations well below the upper reference limit provide further prognostic value for all patients with COPD when added to established risk assessments.

Temporal relations between atrial fibrillation and ischaemic stroke and their prognostic impact on mortality.

AIMS: Limited evidence is available on the temporal relationship between atrial fibrillation (AF) and ischaemic stroke and their impact on mortality in the community. We sought to understand the temporal relationship of AF and ischaemic stroke and to determine the sequence of disease onset in relation to mortality. METHODS AND RESULTS: Across five prospective community cohorts of the Biomarkers for Cardiovascular Risk Assessment in Europe (BiomarCaRE) project we assessed baseline cardiovascular risk factors in 100 132 individuals, median age 46.1 (25th-75th percentile 35.8-57.5) years, 48.4% men. We followed them for incident ischaemic stroke and AF and determined the relation of subsequent disease diagnosis with overall mortality. Over a median follow-up of 16.1 years, N = 4555 individuals were diagnosed solely with AF, N = 2269 had an ischaemic stroke but no AF diagnosed, and N = 898 developed both, ischaemic stroke and AF. Temporal relationships showed a clustering of diagnosis of both diseases within the years around the diagnosis of the other disease. In multivariable-adjusted Cox regression analyses with time-dependent covariates subsequent diagnosis of AF after ischaemic stroke was associated with increased mortality [hazard ratio (HR) 4.05, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.17-7.54; P < 0.001] which was also apparent when ischaemic stroke followed after the diagnosis of AF (HR 3.08, 95% CI 1.90-5.00; P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: The temporal relations of ischaemic stroke and AF appear to be bidirectional. Ischaemic stroke may precede detection of AF by years. The subsequent diagnosis of both diseases significantly increases mortality risk. Future research needs to investigate the common underlying systemic disease processes.

Sex differences in preformed panel-reactive antibody levels and outcomes in patients undergoing heart transplantation.

BACKGROUND: Sex differences in panel-reactive antibody (PRA) levels in heart transplant recipients and their association with transplant-related outcomes are mostly unknown. METHODS: In 20 181 (24.7% women) first-time heart transplant recipients included from July 2004 to March 2015 in the prospective Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network (OPTN), we studied sex differences in most recent (mr) and peak (p)PRA and outcomes (graft failure, rejection, cardiac allograft vasculopathy [CAV], retransplantation, and mortality). Median follow-up (all-cause mortality) was 6 years. Analyses are based on OPTN data (March 6, 2017). RESULTS: MrPRA levels were associated with all-cause mortality (hazard ratio, 95% confidence interval: class I 1.03, 1.01-1.04, P < 0.001) and acute rejection (class II 1.08, 1.03-1.14, P = 0.0044). PPRA levels were associated with all-cause mortality (class I 1.02, 1.00-1.04, P = 0.015) and CAV (class II 1.03, 1.01-1.06, P = 0.020). Sex interactions were seen for the association of pPRA and graft failure with a higher risk in women, and for pPRA and CAV with a higher risk in men. CONCLUSIONS: PRA were associated with different transplant-related outcomes in both sexes. However, women with elevated pPRA were shown to be at higher risk for graft failure, whereas higher levels of pPRA were more hazardous for men in developing CAV.

Sex Differences and Similarities in Atrial Fibrillation Epidemiology, Risk Factors, and Mortality in Community Cohorts: Results From the BiomarCaRE Consortium (Biomarker for Cardiovascular Risk Assessment in Europe).

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common cardiac disease in aging populations with high comorbidity and mortality. Sex differences in AF epidemiology are insufficiently understood. METHODS: In N=79 793 individuals without AF diagnosis at baseline (median age, 49.6 years; age range, 24.1-97.6 years; 51.7% women) from 4 community-based European studies (FINRISK, DanMONICA, Moli-sani Northern Sweden) of the BiomarCaRE consortium (Biomarker for Cardiovascular Risk Assessment in Europe), we examined AF incidence, its association with mortality, common risk factors, biomarkers, and prevalent cardiovascular disease, and their attributable risk by sex. Median follow-up time was 12.6 (to a maximum of 28.2) years. RESULTS: Fewer AF cases were observed in women (N=1796; 4.4%), than in men (N=2465; 6.4%). Cardiovascular risk factor distribution and lipid profile at baseline were less beneficial in men than in women, and cardiovascular disease was more prevalent in men. Cumulative incidence increased markedly after the age of 50 years in men and after 60 years in women. The lifetime risk was similar (>30%) for both sexes. Subjects with incident AF had a 3.5-fold risk of death in comparison with those without AF. Multivariable-adjusted models showed sex differences for the association of body mass index and AF (hazard ratio per standard deviation increase, 1.18; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.12-1.23 in women versus 1.31; 95% CI 1.25-1.38 in men; interaction P value of 0.001). Total cholesterol was inversely associated with incident AF with a greater risk reduction in women (hazard ratio per SD, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.81-0.90 versus 0.92; 95% CI, 0.88-0.97 in men; interaction P value of 0.023). No sex differences were seen for C-reactive protein and N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide. The population-attributable risk of all risk factors combined was 41.9% in women and 46.0% in men. About 20% of the risk was observed for body mass index. CONCLUSIONS: Lifetime risk of AF was high, and AF was strongly associated with increased mortality both in women and men. Body mass index explained the largest proportion of AF risk. Observed sex differences in the association of body mass index and total cholesterol with AF need to be evaluated for underlying pathophysiology and relevance to sex-specific prevention strategies.

Right Ventricular Index for Risk Stratification of Patients with Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension.

BACKGROUND: Right ventricular (RV) dysfunction is a major prognostic predictor in pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study was to assess the prognostic impact of a newly developed index merging haemodynamic parameters into 1 variable. METHODS: We retrospectively assessed 2 cohorts of 248 patients (164 from Hamburg and 84 from Heidelberg) with invasively diagnosed PAH. During a median follow-up time of 3.6 years (3.1 and 4.0 years for Hamburg and Heidelberg, respectively), the composite endpoint of all-cause mortality and lung transplantation occurred in 57 patients (53 and 4 patients for Hamburg and Heidelberg, respectively). The RV index was developed in the Hamburg cohort and validated in the Heidelberg cohort: (right atrial pressure × pulmonary vascular resistance)/mixed venous oxygen saturation. RESULTS: Patients with a high RV index had a higher incidence of the combined endpoint in Kaplan-Meier analyses in the Hamburg and Heidelberg cohort (p = 0.017 and p = 0.034, respectively). The calculated RV index cut-off value was 91 and identified patients with a worse outcome in the Hamburg cohort and showed a trend in the Heidelberg cohort (p < 0.001 and p = 0.089, respectively). The RV index in Cox regression hazard models was an independent predictor of outcomes after adjustment for sex and age in both cohorts (Hamburg: hazard ratio [HR] 1.26 [95% CI 1.08, 1.47], p = 0.0027; Heidelberg: HR 2.27 [95% CI 1.46, 3.51], p < 0.001). A nomogram based on these results allowed risk stratification. CONCLUSION: Merging 3 haemodynamic variables into 1 variable, the RV index increased the prognostic power up to an independent risk factor. The RV index is easy to calculate and allows the construction of a nomogram for an individualized risk assessment.

Prediction of cardiac worsening through to cardiogenic shock in patients with acute heart failure.

AIMS: Acute heart failure (AHF) can result in worsening of heart failure (WHF), cardiogenic shock (CS), or death. Risk factors for these adverse outcomes are not well characterized. This study aimed to identify predictors for WHF or new-onset CS in patients hospitalized for AHF. METHODS AND RESULTS: Prospective cohort study enrolling consecutive patients with AHF admitted to a large tertiary care centre with follow-up until death or discharge. WHF was defined by the RELAX-AHF-2 criteria. CS was defined as SCAI stages B-E. Potential predictors were assessed by fitting logistic regression models adjusted for age and sex. N = 233 patients were enrolled, median age was 78 years, and 80 were women (35.9%). Ischaemic cardiomyopathy was present in 82 patients (40.8%). Overall, 96 (44.2%) developed WHF and 18 (9.7%) CS. In-hospital death (8/223, 3.6%) was related to both events (WHF: OR 6.64, 95% CI 1.21-36.55, P = 0.03; CS: OR 38.27, 95% CI 6.32-231.81, P < 0.001). Chronic kidney disease (OR 2.20, 95% CI 1.25-3.93, P = 0.007), logarithmized serum creatinine (OR 2.90, 95% CI 1.51-5.82, P = 0.002), cystatin c (OR 1.86, 95% CI 1.27-2.77, P = 0.002), tricuspid valve regurgitation (OR 2.08, 95% CI 1.11-3.94, P = 0.023) and logarithmized pro-adrenomedullin (OR 3.01, 95% CI 1.75-5.38, P < 0.001) were significant predictors of WHF. Chronic kidney disease (OR 3.17, 95% CI 1.16-9.58, P = 0.03), cystatin c (OR 1.88, 95% CI 1.00-3.53, P = 0.045), logarithmized pro-adrenomedullin (OR 2.90, 95% CI 1.19-7.19, P = 0.019), and tricuspid valve regurgitation (OR 10.44, 95% CI 2.61-70.00, P = 0.003) were significantly with new-onset CS. CONCLUSIONS: Half of patients admitted with AHF experience WHF or new-onset CS. Chronic kidney disease, tricuspid valve regurgitation, and elevated pro-adrenomedullin concentrations predict these events. They could potentially serve as early warning signs for further deterioration in AHF patients.

Multimodal characterization of dilated cardiomyopathy: Geno- And Phenotyping of PrImary Cardiomyopathy (GrAPHIC).

AIMS: Cardiomyopathies (CMPs) are a heterogeneous group of diseases that are defined by structural and functional abnormalities of the cardiac muscle. Dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM), the most common CMP, is defined by left ventricular dilation and impaired contractility and represents a common cause of heart failure. Different phenotypes result from various underlying genetic and acquired causes with variable effects on disease development and progression, prognosis, and response to medical treatment. Current treatment algorithms do not consider these different aetiologies, due to lack of insights into treatable drivers of cardiac failure in patients with DCM. Our study aims to precisely phenotype and genotype the various subtypes of DCM and hereby lay the foundation for individualized therapy. METHODS AND RESULTS: The Geno- And Phenotyping of PrImary Cardiomyopathy (GrAPHIC) is a currently ongoing prospective observational monocentric cohort study that recruits patients with DCM after exclusion of other causes such as coronary artery disease, valvular dysfunction, myocarditis, exposure to toxins, and peripartum CMP. Patients are enrolled at our heart failure outpatient clinic or during hospitalization at the University Hospital Hamburg. Clinical parameters, multimodal imaging and functional assessment, cardiac biopsies, and blood samples are obtained to enable an integrated genomic, functional, and biomarker analysis. CONCLUSIONS: The GrAPHIC will contribute to a better understanding of the heterogeneous nature of primary CMPs focusing on DCM and provide improved prognostic approaches and more individualized therapies.