Flexible modeling of the effects of continuous prognostic factors in relative survival.

Relative survival methods permit separating the effects of prognostic factors on disease-related 'excess mortality' from their effects on other-causes 'natural mortality', even when individual causes of death are unknown. As in conventional 'crude' survival, accurate assessment of prognostic factors requires testing and possibly modeling of non-proportional effects and, for continuous covariates, of non-linear relationships with the hazard. We propose a flexible extension of the additive-hazards relative survival model, in which the observed all-causes mortality hazard is represented by a sum of disease-related 'excess' and natural mortality hazards. In our flexible model, the three functions representing (i) the baseline hazard for 'excess' mortality, (ii) the time-dependent effects, and (iii) for continuous covariates, non-linear effects, on the logarithm of this hazard, are all modeled by low-dimension cubic regression splines. Non-parametric likelihood ratio tests are proposed to test the time-dependent and non-linear effects. The accuracy of the estimated functions is evaluated in multivariable simulations. To illustrate the new insights offered by the proposed model, we apply it to re-assess the effects of patient age and of secular trends on disease-related mortality in colon cancer.

Which patients with colorectal cancer are followed up by general practitioners? A population-based study.

The aim of the study was to assess the contribution of general practitioners in the surveillance of colorectal cancer, and to examine characteristics and survival of patients with routine general practitioner follow-up. This French registry-based study included 389 patients diagnosed with first colorectal cancer in 1998 and free of disease at least 6 months after curative surgery. For each physician involved, medical records were thoroughly reviewed to collect information about the clinical examinations and follow-up tests prescribed within 3 years after surgery or until death or detection of recurrence. Five-year vital status was obtained through registry records. The proportion of routine clinical examinations performed by general practitioners increased from 35% in the first year to 65% in the third year. Patients having undergone regular general practitioner routine examinations (> or =one examination every 6-month period) had significantly less advanced disease (odds ratio: 0.45; 95% confidence interval: 0.21-0.96), preoperative complications (odds ratio: 0.28; 95% confidence interval: 0.08-0.91) and routine examinations by gastroenterologists/oncologists (odds ratio: 0.37; 95% confidence interval: 0.14-0.98) compared with those without general practitioner examinations. Routine general practitioner follow-up had no influence on 3 and 5-year survival. General practitioners detected significantly more recurrences than specialists in patients over 75 and in those presenting symptoms. French general practitioners are widely involved in the surveillance of patients with early-stage colorectal cancer, without any unfavourable impact on the patient's survival. Some suggestions exist that continuing education in oncology may increase the implication of general practitioners in colorectal cancer surveillance.

How do gastroenterologists follow patients with colorectal cancer after curative surgical resection? A three-year population-based study.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the contribution of gastroenterologists (GEs) to the surveillance of colorectal cancer after curative surgery. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This registry-based study included 407 patients residing in two French administrative areas diagnosed with newly diagnosed colorectal cancer in 1998 and free of disease six months after curative surgery. All surveillance examinations performed either in the three years after surgery or until death or recurrence were collected retrospectively. RESULTS: One hundred nine patients (27%) had a regular clinical check-up with a GE at least once a year. Factors independently associated with GE follow-up were young age (P=0.004), use of adjuvant chemotherapy (P=0.013), and surgeon follow-up (P=0.068). GEs ordered 84% of colonoscopies, 44% of abdominal ultrasound examinations and 52% of abdominal CT scans. They detected 35% of recurrences. A significant proportion of patients (20%) had no regular follow-up, irrespective of the physicians involved. CONCLUSIONS: GEs play a modest role in the routine follow-up of patients with colorectal cancer, but are largely involved in ordering surveillance tests. They might play an important role in the surveillance of patients who presently have poor access to health care.

Multi-state relative survival modelling of colorectal cancer progression and mortality.

Accurate identification of factors associated with progression of colorectal cancer remains a challenge. In particular, it is unclear which statistical methods are most suitable to separate the effects of putative prognostic factors on cancer progression vs cancer-specific and other cause mortality. To address these challenges, we analyzed 10 year follow-up data for patients who underwent curative surgery for colorectal cancer in 1985-2000. Separate analyses were performed in two French cancer registries. Results of three multivariable models were compared: Cox model with recurrence as a time-dependent variable, and two multi-state models, which separated prognostic factor effects on recurrence vs death, with or without recurrence. Conventional multi-state model analyzed all-cause mortality while new relative survival multi-state model focused on cancer-specific mortality. Among the 2517 and 2677 patients in the two registries, about 50% died without a recurrence, and 28% had a recurrence, of whom almost 90% died. In both multi-state models men had significantly increased risk of cancer recurrence in both registries (HR=0.79; 95% CI: 0.68-0.92 and HR=0.83; 95% CI: 0.71-0.96). However, the two multi-state models identified different prognostic factors for mortality without recurrence. In contrast to the conventional model, in the relative survival analyses gender had no independent association with cancer-specific mortality whereas patients diagnosed with stage III cancer had significantly higher risks in both registries (HR=1.67; 95% CI: 1.27-2.22 and HR=2.38; 95% CI: 1.29-3.27). In conclusion, relative survival multi-state model revealed that different factors may be associated with cancer recurrence vs cancer-specific mortality either after or without a recurrence.

Assessment of the effect of occupational exposure to formaldehyde on the risk of lung cancer in two Canadian population-based case-control studies.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to explore the possible association between formaldehyde exposure and lung cancer risk. METHODS: Data were collected in two population-based case-control studies conducted in Montreal, Canada. Cases were individuals diagnosed with incident, histologically-confirmed lung cancer. Controls were randomly selected from electoral lists and frequency-matched to cases by age, sex, and electoral district of residence. Interviews for the two studies were conducted in 1979-1986 and 1996-2002, using a virtually identical questionnaire to obtain lifetime occupational and smoking history and several lifestyle covariates. Experts reviewed the detailed work history for each participant to assess exposure to several occupational agents, including formaldehyde. Logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for the associations between several metrics of formaldehyde exposure and lung cancer, adjusting for smoking and occupational and sociodemographic factors. RESULTS: In all, 2060 lung cancer cases and 2046 population controls were interviewed and assessed for exposure. About 25% of subjects had ever been occupationally exposed to formaldehyde. The adjusted OR for lung cancer was 1.06 (95% CI 0.89-1.27) comparing ever versus never exposure to formaldehyde. Analyses for age at first exposure, average, and peak intensity of exposure also suggested an absence of association between formaldehyde exposure and lung cancer risk. Results did not vary by sex, lifetime smoking intensity, or histological subtype. CONCLUSIONS: No marked increases in lung cancer risk related to workplace formaldehyde exposure were observed. Study participants were mainly exposed at low concentration levels, which should be considered in the interpretation of our findings.

Sex differences in the contributions of visceral and total body fat to blood pressure in adolescence.

Excess body fat deposited viscerally rather than elsewhere in the body is associated with higher risk for hypertension; this relationship is stronger in men than in women. Here we investigated whether similar sex dimorphism exists already in adolescence. A population-based sample of adolescent boys (n=237) and girls (n=262), age 12 to 18 years, was studied. Total body fat (TBF) was assessed with multifrequency bioelectrical impedance, and visceral fat (VF) was quantified with MRI. Blood pressure (BP) was measured beat by beat during an hour-long protocol, including supine, standing, sitting, mental stress, and poststress sections. Multivariate mixed-model analysis was used to assess the relative contributions of TBF and VF to BP during these sections. In boys, BP was strongly positively associated with VF (P<0.0001), whereas it was less strongly and negatively associated with TBF (P=0.004); these relationships did not substantially vary during the protocol. In contrast, in girls, BP was strongly positively associated with TBF (P=0.0006), whereas it was not associated with VF (P=0.08); the relationship with TBF varied during the protocol and was most apparent during mental stress (TBF*section interaction: P=0.002). Furthermore, when waist circumference was included in multivariate models instead of VF, it was not associated with BP in either sex; this indicates that waist circumference may not be an appropriate surrogate for VF. Thus, in adolescence, adiposity-related BP elevation is driven mainly by visceral fat in males and by fat deposited elsewhere in females. This dimorphism suggests sex-specific mechanisms of obesity-induced hypertension and the need for sex-specific criteria of its prevention.

Genome-wide scan for loci of adolescent obesity and their relationship with blood pressure.

CONTEXT: Hypertension, typically considered a disorder of adulthood, is now emerging in adolescence. This is mainly due to the growing prevalence of obesity and the fact that excess body fat increases blood pressure (BP). OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study was to investigate whether genome-wide identified gene loci of obesity are associated with elevated BP in adolescence. DESIGN: This was a genotype-phenotype association study. SETTING: The study was conducted in a French-Canadian founder population. PARTICIPANTS: Participants included 598 adolescents, aged 12-18 yr. INTERVENTION: Testing associations between 530,011 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP; Human610W-Quad BeadChip) and obesity measures and between identified SNP and BP. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Total fat mass (TFM) was assessed with bioelectrical impedance, and body mass index (BMI) was determined with anthropometry. BP was measured beat by beat during an hour-long protocol. RESULTS: The genome-wide association studies of TFM and BMI revealed two novel and several previously identified loci of obesity. The former were PAX5 (rs16933812, TFM: P = 9.3 × 10(-9)) and MRPS22 (rs7638110, BMI: P = 4.6 × 10(-8)), and the top ones among the latter (P < 5 × 10(-4)) were MC4R (rs17773430, BMI: P = 5.8 × 10(-6)), FTO (rs9930333, BMI: P = 1.9 × 10(-4)), and MTCH2 (rs7120548, BMI: P = 1.9 × 10(-4)). From these five, only the PAX5, MRPS22, and FTO were also associated with BP; their minor allele homozygotes vs. major allele homozygotes showed greater TFM by 2.9-8.0 kg and higher BP by 3.3-6.7 mm Hg. CONCLUSIONS: Genome-wide association studies conducted in an adolescent founder population revealed two new and a number of previously identified loci of obesity and demonstrated that several but not all of these loci are also associated with elevated BP. These results begin to reveal the genetic architecture of obesity-induced hypertension.

Functional variation in the androgen-receptor gene is associated with visceral adiposity and blood pressure in male adolescents.

Intra-abdominal accumulation of fat is a hallmark of male body-fat distribution and a major risk factor for hypertension. Sympathoactivation may be one of the mechanisms linking intra-abdominal obesity to hypertension. The aim of the present study was to investigate whether a functional variation in the androgen-receptor gene (AR, a variable number of CAG repeats in exon 1) is associated with intra-abdominal adiposity, sympathetic modulation of vasomotor tone, and blood pressure in adolescent boys but not girls. We studied 223 boys and 259 girls (age 12 to 18 years) from a French-Canadian founder population. Intra-abdominal fat and subcutaneous-abdominal fat were quantified with an MRI. Blood pressure was recorded beat-to-beat during an hour-long protocol including physical and mental challenges, and these blood pressure time series were used to assess sympathetic modulation of vasomotor tone by power spectral analysis. The results showed that boys with a "low" versus "intermediate" or "high" CAG-repeat number in AR demonstrated higher intra-abdominal fat (by 28% and 48%, respectively) but not subcutaneous-abdominal fat. These intra-abdominal fat differences remained significant after adjusting for serum levels of sex hormones and subcutaneous-abdominal fat. Furthermore, boys with low versus intermediate or high CAG-repeat numbers also showed higher blood pressure, with the differences being most pronounced during mental stress (8.0 and 8.5 mm Hg, respectively) and higher sympathetic modulation of vasomotor tone. As expected, no such differences were seen among girls. In adolescent boys, low CAG-repeat numbers in AR may be a genetic risk factor for intra-abdominal obesity and hypertension; sympathoactivation may be an underlying link between the 2 conditions.

Prenatal exposure to maternal cigarette smoking and accumulation of intra-abdominal fat during adolescence.

In industrialized countries, prenatal exposure to maternal cigarette smoking (PEMCS) is the most common environmental insult to the fetus. Here, we tested the hypothesis that PEMCS amplifies accumulation of abdominal fat during the accelerated weight gain occurring in late puberty. This hypothesis was tested in 508 adolescents (12-18 years, 237 exposed prenatally to maternal cigarette smoking) in whom subcutaneous and intra-abdominal fat were quantified with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). We found that, in early puberty, exposed and nonexposed adolescents did not differ in MRI-based measures of adiposity. In late puberty, on the other hand, exposed compared with nonexposed adolescents demonstrated markedly higher quantities of both subcutaneous fat (by 26%, P = 0.004) and intra-abdominal fat (by 33%, P = 0.001). These group differences remained virtually unchanged after adjusting for sex and potential confounders, including birth weight and breastfeeding. As such, our results suggest that PEMCS may represent a major risk factor for the development of abdominal obesity at the later stages of puberty.

Estimating the cost related to surveillance of colorectal cancer in a French population.

Little is known about costs related to the surveillance of patients that have undergone curative resection of colorectal cancer. The aim of this study was to calculate the observed surveillance costs for 385 patients followed-up over a 3-year period, to estimate surveillance costs if French guidelines are respected, and to identify the determinants related to surveillance costs to derive a global estimation for France, using a linear mixed model. The observed mean surveillance cost was 713. If French recommendations were strictly applied, the estimated mean cost would vary between 680 and 1,069 according to the frequency of abdominal ultrasound. The predicted determinants of cost were: age, recurrence, duration of surveillance since diagnosis, and adjuvant treatments. For France, the surveillance cost represented 4.4% of the cost of colorectal cancer management. The cost of surveillance should now be balanced with its effectiveness and compared with surveillance alternatives.