Alarming Trends in Dengue Incidence and Mortality in Bangladesh.

Bangladesh is currently experiencing the country's largest and deadliest dengue outbreak on record. This year's outbreak has been characterized by an early seasonal surge in cases, rapid geographic spread, and a high fatality rate. The alarming trends in dengue incidence and mortality this year is an urgent wake-up call for public health policymakers and researchers to pay closer attention to dengue dynamics in South Asia, to strengthen the surveillance system and diagnostic capabilities, and to develop tools and methods for guiding strategic resource allocation and control efforts.

Novel estimates reveal subnational heterogeneities in disease-relevant contact patterns in the United States.

Population contact patterns fundamentally determine the spread of directly transmitted airborne pathogens such as SARS-CoV-2 and influenza. Reliable quantitative estimates of contact patterns are therefore critical to modeling and reducing the spread of directly transmitted infectious diseases and to assessing the effectiveness of interventions intended to limit risky contacts. While many countries have used surveys and contact diaries to collect national-level contact data, local-level estimates of age-specific contact patterns remain rare. Yet, these local-level data are critical since disease dynamics and public health policy typically vary by geography. To overcome this challenge, we introduce a flexible model that can estimate age-specific contact patterns at the subnational level by combining national-level interpersonal contact data with other locality-specific data sources using multilevel regression with poststratification (MRP). We estimate daily contact matrices for all 50 US states and Washington DC from April 2020 to May 2021 using national contact data from the US. Our results reveal important state-level heterogeneities in levels and trends of contacts across the US over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic, with implications for the spread of respiratory diseases.

Mortality in Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria.

BACKGROUND: Quantifying the effect of natural disasters on society is critical for recovery of public health services and infrastructure. The death toll can be difficult to assess in the aftermath of a major disaster. In September 2017, Hurricane Maria caused massive infrastructural damage to Puerto Rico, but its effect on mortality remains contentious. The official death count is 64. METHODS: Using a representative, stratified sample, we surveyed 3299 randomly chosen households across Puerto Rico to produce an independent estimate of all-cause mortality after the hurricane. Respondents were asked about displacement, infrastructure loss, and causes of death. We calculated excess deaths by comparing our estimated post-hurricane mortality rate with official rates for the same period in 2016. RESULTS: From the survey data, we estimated a mortality rate of 14.3 deaths (95% confidence interval [CI], 9.8 to 18.9) per 1000 persons from September 20 through December 31, 2017. This rate yielded a total of 4645 excess deaths during this period (95% CI, 793 to 8498), equivalent to a 62% increase in the mortality rate as compared with the same period in 2016. However, this number is likely to be an underestimate because of survivor bias. The mortality rate remained high through the end of December 2017, and one third of the deaths were attributed to delayed or interrupted health care. Hurricane-related migration was substantial. CONCLUSIONS: This household-based survey suggests that the number of excess deaths related to Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico is more than 70 times the official estimate. (Funded by the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health and others.).

Tube Well Use as Protection Against Rotavirus Infection During the Monsoons in an Urban Setting.

Rotavirus, a diarrheal pathogen spread via fecal-oral transmission, is typically characterized by a winter incidence peak in most countries. Unlike for cholera and other waterborne infections, the role of sanitation and socioeconomic factors on the spatial variation of rotavirus seasonality remains unclear. In the current study, we analyzed their association with rotavirus seasonality, specifically the odds of monsoon cases, across 46 locations from 2001 to 2012 in Dhaka. Drinking water from tube wells, compared to other sources, has a clear protective effect against cases during the monsoon, when flooding and water contamination are more likely. This finding supports a significant environmental component of transmission.

Analgesia for Office Hysteroscopy: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To identify the most effective analgesia for women undergoing office hysteroscopy. DATA SOURCES: We searched Medline, Embase, the Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, and the Cochrane Library from inception until August 2019 for studies that investigated the effect of different analgesics on pain control in office hysteroscopy. METHODS OF STUDY SELECTION: We included randomized controlled trials that investigated the effect of analgesics on pain experienced by women undergoing diagnostic or operative hysteroscopy in an office setting compared with the control group. TABULATION, INTEGRATION, AND RESULTS: The literature search returned 561 records. Twenty-two studies were selected for a systematic review, of which 16 were suitable for meta-analysis. There was a statistically significant reduction in pain during office hysteroscopy associated with preprocedural administration of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) (standardized mean difference [SMD] -0.72; 95% confidence interval [CI] -1.27 to -0.16), opioids (SMD -0.50; 95% CI -0.97 to -0.03), and antispasmodics (SMD -1.48; 95% CI -1.82 to -1.13), as well as with the use of transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulation (TENS) (SMD -0.99; 95% CI -1.67 to -0.31), compared with the control group. Moreover, similar reduction in pain was observed after office hysteroscopy: NSAIDs (SMD -0.55; 95% CI -0.97 to -0.13), opioids (SMD -0.73; 95% CI -1.07 to -0.39), antispasmodics (SMD -1.02; 95% CI -1.34 to -0.69), and TENS (SMD -0.54; 95% CI -0.95 to -0.12). Significantly reduced pain scores with oral NSAID administration during (SMD -0.87; 95% CI -1.59 to -0.15) and after (SMD -0.56; 95% CI -1.02 to -0.10) office hysteroscopy were seen in contrast to other routes. Significantly more adverse effects were reported with the use of opioids (p <.001) and antispasmodics (p <.001) when compared with the control group, in contrast to NSAIDs (p = .97) and TENS (p = .63). CONCLUSION: Women without contraindications should be advised to take oral NSAIDs before undergoing office hysteroscopy to reduce pain during and after the procedure. TENS should be considered as an alternative analgesic in women with contraindications to NSAIDs.

Hemostatic Techniques for Laparoscopic Management of Cornual Pregnancy: Double-Impact Devascularization Technique.

Cornual pregnancy is a rare form of ectopic pregnancy, accounting for up to 2% to 4% of all ectopic pregnancies, with a mortality range of 2.0% to 2.5%. Hemorrhage is a key concern in the management of such pregnancies. Traditional treatment options include a conservative approach, failing which patients are offered surgical options such as cornual resection at laparotomy, which carries a high risk of hysterectomy. In recent years newer laparoscopic cornual resection or cornuotomy techniques have been used successfully to achieve better outcomes with fewer complications. We present the double-impact devascularization (DID) technique for laparoscopic management of cornual ectopic pregnancies. This technique permits hemostatic control by compression effect, which in turn allows reduction in procedure-related patient morbidity and mortality. We also provide an overview of other reported methods of hemostatic control used in similar laparoscopic procedures. DID appears to be a useful, safe, minimally invasive technique that can be used in both laparoscopic and open surgical procedures.

The development and validation of an internet-based training package for the management of perineal trauma following childbirth: MaternityPEARLS.

BACKGROUND: Birth-related perineal trauma has a major impact on women's health. Appropriate management of perineal injuries requires clinical knowledge and skill. At present, there is no agreement as to what constitutes an effective clinical training programme, despite the presence of sufficient evidence to support standardised perineal repair techniques. To address this deficiency, we developed and validated an interactive distance learning multi-professional training package called MaternityPEARLS. METHOD: MaternityPEARLS was developed as a comprehensive e-learning package in 2010. The main aim of the MaternityPEARLS project was to develop, refine and validate this multi-professional e-learning tool. The effect of MaternityPEARLS in improving clinical skills and knowledge was compared with two other training models; traditional training (lectures + model-based hands on training) and offline computer lab-based training. Midwives and obstetricians were recruited for each training modality from three maternity units. An analysis of covariance was done to assess the effects of clinical profession and years of experience on scoring within each group. Feedback on MaternityPEARLS was also collected from participants. The project started in January 2010 and was completed in December 2010. RESULTS: Thirty-eight participants were included in the study. Pretraining and post-training scores in each group showed considerable improvement in skill scores (p<0.001 in all groups). Mean changes were similar across all three groups for knowledge (3.24 (SD 5.38), 3.00 (SD 3.74), 3.30 (SD 3.73)) and skill (25.34 (SD 8.96), 22.82 (SD 9.24), 20.7 (SD 9.76)) in the traditional, offline computer lab-based and e-learning groups, respectively. There was no evidence of any effect of clinical experience and baseline knowledge on outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: MaternityPEARLS is the first validated perineal trauma management e-learning package. It provides a level of improvement in skill and knowledge comparable to traditional methods of training. However, as an e-learning system, it has the advantage of ensuring the delivery of a standardised, continuously updated curriculum that has global accessibility.

Evaluating primary and booster vaccination prioritization strategies for COVID-19 by age and high-contact employment status using data from contact surveys.

The debate around vaccine prioritization for COVID-19 has revolved around balancing the benefits from: (1) the direct protection conferred by the vaccine amongst those at highest risk of severe disease outcomes, and (2) the indirect protection through vaccinating those that are at highest risk of being infected and of transmitting the virus. While adults aged 65+ are at highest risk for severe disease and death from COVID-19, essential service and other in-person workers with greater rates of contact may be at higher risk of acquiring and transmitting SARS-CoV-2. Unfortunately, there have been relatively little data available to understand heterogeneity in contact rates and risk across these demographic groups. Here, we retrospectively analyze and evaluate vaccination prioritization strategies by age and worker status. We use a mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and uniquely detailed contact data collected as part of the Berkeley Interpersonal Contact Survey to evaluate five vaccination prioritization strategies: (1) prioritizing only adults over age 65, (2) prioritizing only high-contact workers, (3) splitting prioritization between adults 65+ and high-contact workers, (4) tiered prioritization of adults over age 65 followed by high-contact workers, and (5) tiered prioritization of high-contact workers followed by adults 65+. We find that for the primary two-dose vaccination schedule, assuming 70% uptake, a tiered roll-out that first prioritizes adults 65+ averts the most deaths (31% fewer deaths compared to a no-vaccination scenario) while a tiered roll-out that prioritizes high contact workers averts the most number of clinical infections (14% fewer clinical infections compared to a no-vaccination scenario). We also consider prioritization strategies for booster doses during a subsequent outbreak of a hypothetical new SARS-CoV-2 variant. We find that a tiered roll-out that prioritizes adults 65+ for booster doses consistently averts the most deaths, and it may also avert the most number of clinical cases depending on the epidemiology of the SARS-CoV-2 variant and the vaccine efficacy.

The impact of current and future climates on spatiotemporal dynamics of influenza in a tropical setting.

Although the drivers of influenza have been well studied in high-income settings in temperate regions, many open questions remain about the burden, seasonality, and drivers of influenza dynamics in the tropics. In temperate climates, the inverse relationship between specific humidity and transmission can explain much of the observed temporal and spatial patterns of influenza outbreaks. Yet, this relationship fails to explain seasonality, or lack there-of, in tropical and subtropical countries. Here, we analyzed eight years of influenza surveillance data from 12 locations in Bangladesh to quantify the role of climate in driving disease dynamics in a tropical setting with a distinct rainy season. We find strong evidence for a nonlinear bimodal relationship between specific humidity and influenza transmission in Bangladesh, with highest transmission occurring for relatively low and high specific humidity values. We simulated influenza burden under current and future climate in Bangladesh using a mathematical model with a bimodal relationship between humidity and transmission, and decreased transmission at very high temperatures, while accounting for changes in population immunity. The climate-driven mechanistic model can accurately capture both the temporal and spatial variation in influenza activity observed across Bangladesh, highlighting the usefulness of mechanistic models for low-income countries with inadequate surveillance. By using climate model projections, we also highlight the potential impact of climate change on influenza dynamics in the tropics and the public health consequences.

Patient experiences of outpatient hysteroscopy.

OBJECTIVES: Patient perspectives have an important role in improving the quality of outpatient hysteroscopy (OPH) services. Understanding women's experiences can help provide important insights regarding the OPH journey. The purpose of this paper is to share perspectives and reflect on the experiences of women that participated in a national benchmarking OPH survey. In addition, we explore the correlation between women's experience of OPH and reported pain scores. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Over a two-month period, 5151 women took part in the national OPH survey. Free text comments relating to women's OPH experience, collected as part of the survey, were subjected to qualitative analysis using NVivo 12 software to provide a better understanding of the OPH journey. In addition, correlations were drawn between the qualitative and quantitative data collected for pain scores and satisfaction using SPSS software. RESULTS: 1720 (33.3%) women provided comments on their OPH experience. Qualitative thematic analysis generated themes that were divided into positive (82%) and negative (7%) experiences of care. Potential areas of improvement in relation to the OPH service were highlighted in 11% of themes. Most women regarded OPH as a safe, tolerable, and well delivered outpatient service. Quantitative analysis showed that 1829 (35.5%) women reported procedural pain between 70 and 100 mm. These women reported equivalent quality of care on a 10 cm visual analogue scale (9.71 [SD1.04] vs. 9.76 [0.73]; P = 0.06) but were more likely to decline having the procedure done in the same way again (19.4% vs. 3.1%; RR 6.30, 95% CI 5.06 to 7.83) compared to women with pain scores < 70 mm. CONCLUSION: Qualitative data supports the usefulness, safety, tolerability, and acceptance of hysteroscopy in an outpatient setting by most women. However, the reasons for high procedural pain, poor tolerability and negative experiences warrant review and exploration of both individual patient and relevant institutional factors including training, equipment, and local processes.

Quantifying the impact of SARS-CoV-2 temporal vaccination trends and disparities on disease control.

SARS-CoV-2 vaccines have been distributed at unprecedented speed. Still, little is known about temporal vaccination trends, their association with socioeconomic inequality, and their consequences for disease control. Using data from 161 countries/territories and 58 states, we examined vaccination rates across high and low socioeconomic status (SES), showing that disparities in coverage exist at national and subnational levels. We also identified two distinct vaccination trends: a rapid initial rollout, quickly reaching a plateau, or sigmoidal and slow to begin. Informed by these patterns, we implemented an SES-stratified mechanistic model, finding profound differences in mortality and incidence across these two vaccination types. Timing of initial rollout affects disease outcomes more substantially than final coverage or degree of SES disparity. Unexpectedly, timing is not associated with wealth inequality or GDP per capita. While socioeconomic disparity should be addressed, accelerating initial rollout for all over focusing on increasing coverage is an accessible intervention that could minimize the burden of disease across socioeconomic groups.

Risk factors for COVID-19 mortality among telehealth patients in Bangladesh: A prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Estimating the contribution of risk factors of mortality due to COVID-19 is particularly important in settings with low vaccination coverage and limited public health and clinical resources. Very few studies of risk factors of COVID-19 mortality used high-quality data at an individual level from low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We examined the contribution of demographic, socioeconomic and clinical risk factors of COVID-19 mortality in Bangladesh, a lower middle-income country in South Asia. METHODS: We used data from 290,488 lab-confirmed COVID-19 patients who participated in a telehealth service in Bangladesh between May 2020 and June 2021, linked with COVID-19 death data from a national database to study the risk factors associated with mortality. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to estimate the association between risk factors and mortality. We used classification and regression trees to identify the risk factors that are the most important for clinical decision-making. FINDINGS: This study is one of the largest prospective cohort studies of COVID-19 mortality in a LMIC, covering 36% of all lab-confirmed COVID-19 cases in the country during the study period. We found that being male, being very young or elderly, having low socioeconomic status, chronic kidney and liver disease, and being infected during the latter pandemic period were significantly associated with a higher risk of mortality from COVID-19. Males had 1.15 times higher odds (95% Confidence Interval, CI: 1.09, 1.22) of death compared to females. Compared to the reference age group (20-24 years olds), the odds ratio of mortality increased monotonically with age, ranging from an odds ratio of 1.35 (95% CI: 1.05, 1.73) for ages 30-34 to an odds ratio of 21.6 (95% CI: 17.08, 27.38) for ages 75-79 year group. For children 0-4 years old the odds of mortality were 3.93 (95% CI: 2.74, 5.64) times higher than 20-24 years olds. Other significant predictors were severe symptoms of COVID-19 such as breathing difficulty, fever, and diarrhea. Patients who were assessed by a physician as having a severe episode of COVID-19 based on the telehealth interview had 12.43 (95% CI: 11.04, 13.99) times higher odds of mortality compared to those assessed to have a mild episode. The finding that the telehealth doctors' assessment of disease severity was highly predictive of subsequent COVID-19 mortality, underscores the feasibility and value of the telehealth services. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings confirm the universality of certain COVID-19 risk factors-such as gender and age-while highlighting other risk factors that appear to be more (or less) relevant in the context of Bangladesh. These findings on the demographic, socioeconomic, and clinical risk factors for COVID-19 mortality can help guide public health and clinical decision-making. Harnessing the benefits of the telehealth system and optimizing care for those most at risk of mortality, particularly in the context of a LMIC, are the key takeaways from this study.

Real-time sewage surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 in Dhaka, Bangladesh versus clinical COVID-19 surveillance: a longitudinal environmental surveillance study (December, 2019-December, 2021).

BACKGROUND: Clinical surveillance for COVID-19 has typically been challenging in low-income and middle-income settings. From December, 2019, to December, 2021, we implemented environmental surveillance in a converging informal sewage network in Dhaka, Bangladesh, to investigate SARS-CoV-2 transmission across different income levels of the city compared with clinical surveillance. METHODS: All sewage lines were mapped, and sites were selected with estimated catchment populations of more than 1000 individuals. We analysed 2073 sewage samples, collected weekly from 37 sites, and 648 days of case data from eight wards with varying socioeconomic statuses. We assessed the correlations between the viral load in sewage samples and clinical cases. FINDINGS: SARS-CoV-2 was consistently detected across all wards (low, middle, and high income) despite large differences in reported clinical cases and periods of no cases. The majority of COVID-19 cases (26 256 [55·1%] of 47 683) were reported from Ward 19, a high-income area with high levels of clinical testing (123 times the number of tests per 100 000 individuals compared with Ward 9 [middle-income] in November, 2020, and 70 times the number of tests per 100 000 individuals compared with Ward 5 [low-income] in November, 2021), despite containing only 19·4% of the study population (142 413 of 734 755 individuals). Conversely, a similar quantity of SARS-CoV-2 was detected in sewage across different income levels (median difference in high-income vs low-income areas: 0·23 log10 viral copies + 1). The correlation between the mean sewage viral load (log10 viral copies + 1) and the log10 clinical cases increased with time (r = 0·90 in July-December, 2021 and r=0·59 in July-December, 2020). Before major waves of infection, viral load quantity in sewage samples increased 1-2 weeks before the clinical cases. INTERPRETATION: This study demonstrates the utility and importance of environmental surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 in a lower-middle-income country. We show that environmental surveillance provides an early warning of increases in transmission and reveals evidence of persistent circulation in poorer areas where access to clinical testing is limited. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

All-cause excess mortality across 90 municipalities in Gujarat, India, during the COVID-19 pandemic (March 2020-April 2021).

Official COVID-19 mortality statistics are strongly influenced by local diagnostic capacity, strength of the healthcare and vital registration systems, and death certification criteria and capacity, often resulting in significant undercounting of COVID-19 attributable deaths. Excess mortality, which is defined as the increase in observed death counts compared to a baseline expectation, provides an alternate measure of the mortality shock-both direct and indirect-of the COVID-19 pandemic. Here, we use data from civil death registers from a convenience sample of 90 (of 162) municipalities across the state of Gujarat, India, to estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on all-cause mortality. Using a model fit to weekly data from January 2019 to February 2020, we estimated excess mortality over the course of the pandemic from March 2020 to April 2021. During this period, the official government data reported 10,098 deaths attributable to COVID-19 for the entire state of Gujarat. We estimated 21,300 [95% CI: 20, 700, 22, 000] excess deaths across these 90 municipalities in this period, representing a 44% [95% CI: 43%, 45%] increase over the expected baseline. The sharpest increase in deaths in our sample was observed in late April 2021, with an estimated 678% [95% CI: 649%, 707%] increase in mortality from expected counts. The 40 to 65 age group experienced the highest increase in mortality relative to the other age groups. We found substantial increases in mortality for males and females. Our excess mortality estimate for these 90 municipalities, representing approximately at least 8% of the population, based on the 2011 census, exceeds the official COVID-19 death count for the entire state of Gujarat, even before the delta wave of the pandemic in India peaked in May 2021. Prior studies have concluded that true pandemic-related mortality in India greatly exceeds official counts. This study, using data directly from the first point of official death registration data recording, provides incontrovertible evidence of the high excess mortality in Gujarat from March 2020 to April 2021.

All-cause mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in Chennai, India: an observational study.

BACKGROUND: India has been severely affected by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. However, due to shortcomings in disease surveillance, the burden of mortality associated with COVID-19 remains poorly understood. We aimed to assess changes in mortality during the pandemic in Chennai, Tamil Nadu, using data on all-cause mortality within the district. METHODS: For this observational study, we analysed comprehensive death registrations in Chennai, from Jan 1, 2016, to June 30, 2021. We estimated expected mortality without the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic by fitting models to observed mortality time series during the pre-pandemic period, with stratification by age and sex. Additionally, we considered three periods of interest: the first 4 weeks of India's first lockdown (March 24 to April 20, 2020), the 4-month period including the first wave of the pandemic in Chennai (May 1 to Aug 31, 2020), and the 4-month period including the second wave of the pandemic in Chennai (March 1 to June 30, 2021). We computed the difference between observed and expected mortality from March 1, 2020, to June 30, 2021, and compared pandemic-associated mortality across socioeconomically distinct communities (measured with use of 2011 census of India data) with regression analyses. FINDINGS: Between March 1, 2020, and June 30, 2021, 87 870 deaths were registered in areas of Chennai district represented by the 2011 census, exceeding expected deaths by 25 990 (95% uncertainty interval 25 640-26 360) or 5·18 (5·11-5·25) excess deaths per 1000 people. Stratified by age, excess deaths numbered 21·02 (20·54-21·49) excess deaths per 1000 people for individuals aged 60-69 years, 39·74 (38·73-40·69) for those aged 70-79 years, and 96·90 (93·35-100·16) for those aged 80 years or older. Neighbourhoods with lower socioeconomic status had 0·7% to 2·8% increases in pandemic-associated mortality per 1 SD increase in each measure of community disadvantage, due largely to a disproportionate increase in mortality within these neighbourhoods during the second wave. Conversely, differences in excess mortality across communities were not clearly associated with socioeconomic status measures during the first wave. For each increase by 1 SD in measures of community disadvantage, neighbourhoods had 3·6% to 8·6% lower pandemic-associated mortality during the first 4 weeks of India's country-wide lockdown, before widespread SARS-CoV-2 circulation was underway in Chennai. The greatest reductions in mortality during this early lockdown period were observed among men aged 20-29 years, with 58% (54-62) fewer deaths than expected from pre-pandemic trends. INTERPRETATION: Mortality in Chennai increased substantially but heterogeneously during the COVID-19 pandemic, with the greatest burden concentrated in disadvantaged communities. Reported COVID-19 deaths greatly underestimated pandemic-associated mortality. FUNDING: National Institute of General Medical Sciences, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Science Foundation. TRANSLATION: For the Hindi translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Modelling how face masks and symptoms-based quarantine synergistically and cost-effectively reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Bangladesh.

BACKGROUND: Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) used to limit SARS-CoV-2 transmission vary in their feasibility, appropriateness and effectiveness in different contexts. In Bangladesh a national lockdown implemented in March 2020 exacerbated poverty and was untenable long-term. A resurgence in 2021 warranted renewed NPIs. We sought to identify NPIs that were feasible in this context and explore potential synergies between interventions. METHODS: We developed an SEIR model for Dhaka District, parameterised from literature values and calibrated to data from Bangladesh. We discussed scenarios and parameterisations with policymakers with the aid of an interactive app. These discussions guided modelling of lockdown and two post-lockdown measures considered feasible to deliver; symptoms-based household quarantining and compulsory mask-wearing. We compared NPI scenarios on deaths, hospitalisations relative to capacity, working days lost, and cost-effectiveness. RESULTS: Lockdowns alone were predicted to delay the first epidemic peak but could not prevent overwhelming of the health service and were costly in lost working days. Impacts of post-lockdown interventions depended heavily on compliance. Assuming 80% compliance, symptoms-based household quarantining alone could not prevent hospitalisations exceeding capacity, whilst mask-wearing prevented overwhelming health services and was cost-effective given masks of high filtration efficiency. Combining masks with quarantine increased their impact. Recalibration to surging cases in 2021 suggested potential for a further wave in 2021, dependent on uncertainties in case reporting and immunity. CONCLUSIONS: Masks and symptoms-based household quarantining synergistically prevent transmission, and are cost-effective in Bangladesh. Our interactive app was valuable in supporting decision-making, with mask-wearing being mandated early, and community teams being deployed to support quarantining across Dhaka. These measures likely contributed to averting the worst public health impacts, but delivering an effective response with consistent compliance across the population has been challenging. In the event of a further resurgence, concurrent messaging to increase compliance with both mask-wearing and quarantine is recommended.

Infectious disease in an era of global change.

The twenty-first century has witnessed a wave of severe infectious disease outbreaks, not least the COVID-19 pandemic, which has had a devastating impact on lives and livelihoods around the globe. The 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus outbreak, the 2009 swine flu pandemic, the 2012 Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus outbreak, the 2013-2016 Ebola virus disease epidemic in West Africa and the 2015 Zika virus disease epidemic all resulted in substantial morbidity and mortality while spreading across borders to infect people in multiple countries. At the same time, the past few decades have ushered in an unprecedented era of technological, demographic and climatic change: airline flights have doubled since 2000, since 2007 more people live in urban areas than rural areas, population numbers continue to climb and climate change presents an escalating threat to society. In this Review, we consider the extent to which these recent global changes have increased the risk of infectious disease outbreaks, even as improved sanitation and access to health care have resulted in considerable progress worldwide.

Quantifying population contact patterns in the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic.

SARS-CoV-2 is transmitted primarily through close, person-to-person interactions. Physical distancing policies can control the spread of SARS-CoV-2 by reducing the amount of these interactions in a population. Here, we report results from four waves of contact surveys designed to quantify the impact of these policies during the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. We surveyed 9,743 respondents between March 22 and September 26, 2020. We find that interpersonal contact has been dramatically reduced in the US, with an 82% (95%CI: 80%-83%) reduction in the average number of daily contacts observed during the first wave compared to pre-pandemic levels. However, we find increases in contact rates over the subsequent waves. We also find that certain demographic groups, including people under 45 and males, have significantly higher contact rates than the rest of the population. Tracking these changes can provide rapid assessments of the impact of physical distancing policies and help to identify at-risk populations.

Benchmarking services in outpatient hysteroscopy (OPH): A quality improvement project.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a survey evaluating women's experience of outpatient hysteroscopy (OPH) to generate data to benchmark OPH practice in the UK that can be used to optimise women's experience of OPH and improve services. DESIGN: Quality improvement project and a population-based national survey. SETTING: 77 hospitals with outpatient hysteroscopy (OPH) services across the UK collected data over two month-period (October-November 2019). POPULATION: 5151 women attending for outpatient hysteroscopy. METHODS: A new OPH-Patient Satisfaction Survey (OPH-PSS) was developed using a multi-disciplinary approach. Good practice guidance in hysteroscopy and existing survey's provided content for the survey. Pilot testing identified aspects of the women's OPH journey that contributed to a final survey. The final OPH-PSS was rolled out nationally to generate data for benchmarking OPH services. MAIN OUTCOME VARIABLE: The adequacy of OPH services reflected in women's experience of their OPH journey and the quality of care being delivered. RESULTS: The majority (3193, 76 %) of hysteroscopic procedures were recorded as diagnostic. Most (4485, 87 %) women received adequate information regarding their OPH. 4581, 89 % of women agreed that they were given an opportunity to discuss analgesia and 5033, 97 % of women felt involved in their care. As regards patient experience, although pain was reported by most women (4490, 87 %), just over half considered the degree of pain as slight. While (787, 15 %) felt pain throughout their OPH with 1 in 10 women feeling anxious. Although, 1217 (26 %) women experienced feeling faint most only felt this slightly. Overall, more than 90 % (4867) of women considered the OPH service good. The mean score rating for the overall level of care was considerably high (9.7/10). Comparative pain scores for OPH vs the worst pain felt during a menstrual period showed OPH procedures to be less painful except for endometrial ablation (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: This novel survey, evaluating women's experience of OPH (OPH-PSS), provides a useful tool for benchmarking performance across different OPH units. Overall, the information provided to women and their subsequent experience of OPH is good, but pain is common.