Aggressive or Moderate Fluid Resuscitation in Acute Pancreatitis.

BACKGROUND: Early aggressive hydration is widely recommended for the management of acute pancreatitis, but evidence for this practice is limited. METHODS: At 18 centers, we randomly assigned patients who presented with acute pancreatitis to receive goal-directed aggressive or moderate resuscitation with lactated Ringer's solution. Aggressive fluid resuscitation consisted of a bolus of 20 ml per kilogram of body weight, followed by 3 ml per kilogram per hour. Moderate fluid resuscitation consisted of a bolus of 10 ml per kilogram in patients with hypovolemia or no bolus in patients with normovolemia, followed by 1.5 ml per kilogram per hour in all patients in this group. Patients were assessed at 12, 24, 48, and 72 hours, and fluid resuscitation was adjusted according to the patient's clinical status. The primary outcome was the development of moderately severe or severe pancreatitis during the hospitalization. The main safety outcome was fluid overload. The planned sample size was 744, with a first planned interim analysis after the enrollment of 248 patients. RESULTS: A total of 249 patients were included in the interim analysis. The trial was halted owing to between-group differences in the safety outcomes without a significant difference in the incidence of moderately severe or severe pancreatitis (22.1% in the aggressive-resuscitation group and 17.3% in the moderate-resuscitation group; adjusted relative risk, 1.30; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.78 to 2.18; P = 0.32). Fluid overload developed in 20.5% of the patients who received aggressive resuscitation and in 6.3% of those who received moderate resuscitation (adjusted relative risk, 2.85; 95% CI, 1.36 to 5.94, P = 0.004). The median duration of hospitalization was 6 days (interquartile range, 4 to 8) in the aggressive-resuscitation group and 5 days (interquartile range, 3 to 7) in the moderate-resuscitation group. CONCLUSIONS: In this randomized trial involving patients with acute pancreatitis, early aggressive fluid resuscitation resulted in a higher incidence of fluid overload without improvement in clinical outcomes. (Funded by Instituto de Salud Carlos III and others; WATERFALL ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04381169.).

Lack of complete biochemical response in autoimmune hepatitis leads to adverse outcome: First report of the IAIHG retrospective registry.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The International Autoimmune Hepatitis Group retrospective registry (IAIHG-RR) is a web-based platform with subjects enrolled with a clinical diagnosis of autoimmune hepatitis (AIH). As prognostic factor studies with enough power are scarce, this study aimed to ascertain data quality and identify prognostic factors in the IAIHG-RR cohort. METHODS: This retrospective, observational, multicenter study included all patients with a clinical diagnosis of AIH from the IAIHG-RR. The quality assessment consisted of external validation of completeness and consistency for 29 predefined variables. Cox regression was used to identify risk factors for liver-related death and liver transplantation (LT). RESULTS: This analysis included 2559 patients across 7 countries. In 1700 patients, follow-up was available, with a completeness of individual data of 90% (range: 30-100). During a median follow-up period of 10 (range: 0-49) years, there were 229 deaths, of which 116 were liver-related, and 143 patients underwent LT. Non-White ethnicity (HR 4.1 95% CI: 2.3-7.1), cirrhosis (HR 3.5 95% CI: 2.3-5.5), variant syndrome with primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) (HR 3.1 95% CI: 1.6-6.2), and lack of complete biochemical response within 6 months (HR 5.7 95% CI: 3.4-9.6) were independent prognostic factors. CONCLUSIONS: The IAIHG-RR represents the world's largest AIH cohort with moderate-to-good data quality and a relevant number of liver-related events. The registry is a suitable platform for patient selection in future studies. Lack of complete biochemical response to treatment, non-White ethnicity, cirrhosis, and PSC-AIH were associated with liver-related death and LT.

Incidence and predictors of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with autoimmune hepatitis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) is a rare chronic liver disease of unknown aetiology; the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains unclear and risk factors are not well-defined. We aimed to investigate the risk of HCC across a multicentre AIH cohort and to identify predictive factors. METHODS: We performed a retrospective, observational, multicentric study of patients included in the International Autoimmune Hepatitis Group Retrospective Registry. The assessed clinical outcomes were HCC development, liver transplantation, and death. Fine and Gray regression analysis stratified by centre was applied to determine the effects of individual covariates; the cumulative incidence of HCC was estimated using the competing risk method with death as a competing risk. RESULTS: A total of 1,428 patients diagnosed with AIH from 1980 to 2020 from 22 eligible centres across Europe and Canada were included, with a median follow-up of 11.1 years (interquartile range 5.2-15.9). Two hundred and ninety-three (20.5%) patients had cirrhosis at diagnosis. During follow-up, 24 patients developed HCC (1.7%), an incidence rate of 1.44 cases/1,000 patient-years; the cumulative incidence of HCC increased over time (0.6% at 5 years, 0.9% at 10 years, 2.7% at 20 years, and 6.6% at 30 years of follow-up). Patients who developed cirrhosis during follow-up had a significantly higher incidence of HCC. The cumulative incidence of HCC was 2.6%, 4.6%, 5.6% and 6.6% at 5, 10, 15, and 20 years after the development of cirrhosis, respectively. Obesity (hazard ratio [HR] 2.94, p = 0.04), cirrhosis (HR 3.17, p = 0.01), and AIH/PSC variant syndrome (HR 5.18, p = 0.007) at baseline were independent risk factors for HCC development. CONCLUSIONS: HCC incidence in AIH is low even after cirrhosis development and is associated with risk factors including obesity, cirrhosis, and AIH/PSC variant syndrome. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: The risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in individuals with autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) seems to be lower than for other aetiologies of chronic liver disease. Yet, solid data for this specific patient group remain elusive, given that most of the existing evidence comes from small, single-centre studies. In our study, we found that HCC incidence in patients with AIH is low even after the onset of cirrhosis. Additionally, factors such as advanced age, obesity, cirrhosis, alcohol consumption, and the presence of the AIH/PSC variant syndrome at the time of AIH diagnosis are linked to a higher risk of HCC. Based on these findings, there seems to be merit in adopting a specialized HCC monitoring programme for patients with AIH based on their individual risk factors.

Clinical Implication of CDH1 Mutations in Genetic Testing for Diffuse Gastric Cancer Patients.

INTRODUCTION: The objective of this study was to reclassify published germline CDH1 variants identified in gastric cancer (GC) in accordance with the latest ClinVar definition and to correlate their pathogenicity with the established international clinical criteria for genetic testing. METHODS: The relevant literature dating from 1998 to 2019 was systematically searched for data on CDH1 germline mutations in accord with PRISMA guidelines. The collected variants were classified according to the latest ClinVar definition into the following classes: benign (B), likely benign (LB), pathogenic (P), likely pathogenic (LP), and variant of unknown significance (VUS). The McNemar test was used to compare the adequacy of current versus previous International GC Linkage Consortium (IGCLC) criteria. RESULTS: We reclassified a total of 247 CDH1 variants, and we identified that about 70% of B/LB variant carriers were not fulfilling the defined clinical criteria. Instead, all P/LP variants (100%) were associated with the hereditary diffuse gastric cancer (HDGC) phenotype fulfilling the 2020 ILGCC criteria, with a significant improvement (p = 0.025) compared to previous version. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that germline CDH1 genetic testing is indicated only in families meeting the clinical criteria for the HDGC syndrome. This observation suggests that clinical phenotypes that do not clearly fulfill these criteria should not be considered for CDH1 genetic testing.

An Italian real-world multicenter study of patients with advanced mixed neuroendocrine non-neuroendocrine neoplasms (MiNENs) of the gastro-entero-pancreatic system treated with chemotherapy.

PURPOSE: The aim of this study is to describe the clinical management of an Italian series of patients with advanced gastro-entero-pancreatic (GEP) MiNENs treated in clinical practice. METHODS: Clinical records of patients from four Italian referral Centers were retrospectively analyzed to correlate clinical/biological data with clinical outcomes. All the surgical specimens were centrally reviewed. RESULTS: Clinical data and surgical samples of 51 patients during 1995-2015 were analyzed. Sites of origin were: 32 colorectal, 14 gastro-esophageal, and 5 pancreatobiliary. Twenty-one out of fifty-one (42.2%) developed metachronous distant metastases. Only 5/51 (9.8%) patients received peri-operative therapy, and 23/51 (45.1%) first-line chemotherapy, mostly fluoropyrimidines/oxaliplatin. The NEN component was poorly differentiated in the whole population. Patients with Ki67 index < 55% in the NEC component had a significantly longer median overall survival (OS) (35.3 months; 95% CI 27.1-41.0) than those with Ki67 ≥ 55% (11.9 months; 95% CI 9.1-14.0) P = 0.0005. The median OS was 14 months (95% CI 10.1-19.1) in the whole cohort, with 11.4 months (95% CI 6.2-20.2) in patients who received a first-line therapy. CONCLUSION: This study confirms that GEP-MiNENs represent a complex disease and that over the past years the clinical management has been predominantly guided by the subjective judgment of the clinicians. Although, in this series, the NEC component appeared mostly responsible for the systemic spread and prognosis on the whole neoplasm, the lack of strong prognostic and predictive factors universally recognized seems to condition their management so far. Future prospective clinical and biomolecular studies could help clinicians to improve clinical management of GEP-MiNENs.

HPV infection and vaccination: a cross-sectional study of knowledge, perception, and attitude to vaccine uptake among university students in Qatar.

BACKGROUND: Human Papilloma Virus (HPV) infection is a significant public health concern in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, being widely prevalent and the main risk factor for cervical cancer. We aimed to assess knowledge and perception towards HPV, acceptability of the HPV vaccine, and HPV vaccination rates among university students in Education City, Doha, Qatar. METHODS: This cross-sectional survey utilized proportional quota-sampling, with quotas based on university, sex, and nationality, to recruit students from seven universities between February and September 2022. The English language questionnaire requested socio-demographic information, knowledge, and attitudes about HPV infection and the vaccine. The chi-square test, Student t-test, Mann-Whitney-Wilcoxon tests and multivariable ordinal logistic regression were used to assess differences in proportion, mean, and median according to broad HPV knowledge categories. RESULTS: Three hundred and ninety-eight students were recruited (response rate = 82.3%), of whom 251 (63.1%) were female. Mean age was 21.7 years. Eighty-nine (22.4%, 95% CI 18.4-26.8%) students had poor knowledge about HPV, 220 (55.3%, 95% CI 50.2-60.2%) students had some awareness, and 89 (22.4%, 95% CI 18.4-26.8%) students were knowledgeable. Age, nationality, and field of study influenced the students' knowledge about HPV. Only 25 (6.3%) students had previously been vaccinated against HPV. However, 71% of the unvaccinated students reported being willing to get vaccinated if recommended by their healthcare provider. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, 77.7% of the student population had some-to-good levels of knowledge about HPV-related infection, cancer, and vaccination. There are gaps in the student population's understanding and knowledge about HPV. Increasing knowledge can be key toward shared decision-making for HPV vaccination among eligible populations. Targeted public health campaigns and integration into childhood vaccination programs should be critical first steps, especially as most of the surveyed students had a positive outlook on getting vaccinated. Healthcare professionals should be incentivized to increase their HPV knowledge and communication skills, while policymakers can work toward easing barriers in integrating HPV vaccinations in the immunization schedule and encouraging overall HPV vaccination uptake.

Lung carcinoid tumours: histology and Ki-67, the eternal rivalry.

WHO classification of Thoracic Tumours defines lung carcinoid tumours (LCTs) as well-differentiated neuroendocrine neoplasms (NENs) classified in low grade typical (TC) and intermediate grade atypical carcinoids (AC). Limited data exist concerning protein expression and morphologic factors able to predict disease aggressiveness. Though Ki-67 has proved to be a powerful diagnostic and prognostic factor for Gastro-entero-pancreatic NENs, its role in lung NENs is still debated. A retrospective series of 370 LCT from two oncology centers was centrally reviewed. Morphology and immunohistochemical markers (Ki-67, TTF-1, CD44, OTP, SSTR-2A, Ascl1, and p53) were studied and correlated with Overall Survival (OS), Cancer-specific survival (CSS) and Disease-free survival (DFS). Carcinoid histology was confirmed in 355 patients: 297 (83.7%) TC and 58 (16.3%) AC. Ki-67 at 3% was the best value in predicting DFS. Ki-67 ≥ 3% tumours were significantly associated with AC histology, stage III-IV, smoking, vascular invasion, tumour spread through air spaces OTP negativity, and TTF-1, Ascl1 and p53 positivity. After adjustment for center and period of diagnosis, both Ki-67 (≥3 versus <3) and histology (AC versus TC) alone significantly added prognostic information to OS and CSS multivariable model with age, stage and OTP; addition of both variables did not provide further prognostic information. Conversely, an improved significance of the DFS prediction model at multivariate analysis was seen by adding Ki-67 (≥3 versus <3, P adj = 0.01) to TC and AC histological distinction, age, lymph node involvement, residual tumour and OTP. Ki-67 ≥ 3% plays a potentially pivotal role in LCT prognosis, irrespective of histological grade.

Ascl1 and OTP tumour expressions are associated with disease-free survival in lung atypical carcinoids.

According to World Health Organization guidelines, atypical carcinoids (ACs) are well-differentiated lung neuroendocrine tumours with 2-10 mitoses/2 mm2 and/or foci of necrosis (usually punctate). Besides morphological criteria, no further tools in predicting AC clinical outcomes are proposed. The aim of this work was to identify novel factors able to predict AC disease aggressiveness and progression. METHODS AND RESULTS: Three hundred-seventy lung carcinoids were collected and centrally reviewed by two expert pathologists. Morphology and immunohistochemical markers (Ki-67, TTF-1, CD44, OTP, SSTR2A, Ascl1, p53, and Rb1) were studied and correlated with disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS). Fifty-eight of 370 tumours were defined as AC. Survival analysis showed that patients with Ascl1 + ACs and those with OTP-ACs had a significantly worse DFS than patients with Ascl1-ACs and OTP + ACs, respectively. Combining Ascl1 and OTP expressions, groups were formed reflecting the aggressiveness of disease (P = 0.0005). Ki-67 ≥10% patients had a significantly worse DFS than patients with Ki-67 <10%. At multivariable analysis, Ascl1 (present versus absent, hazard ratio [HR] = 3.42, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.35-8.65, P = 0.009) and OTP (present versus absent, HR = 0.26, 95% CI 0.10-0.68, P = 0.006) were independently associated with DFS. The prognosis of patients with Ki-67 ≥10% tended to be worse compared to that with Ki-67 <10%. On the contrary, OTP (present versus absent, HR = 0.28, 95% CI 0.09-0.89, P = 0.03), tumour stage (III-IV versus I-II, HR = 4.25, 95% CI 1.42-12.73, P = 0.01) and increasing age (10-year increase, HR = 1.67, 95% CI 1.04-2.68, P = 0.03) were independently associated with OS. CONCLUSION: This retrospective analysis of lung ACs showed that Ascl1 and OTP could be the main prognostic drivers of postoperative recurrence.

EUS-guided gastroenterostomy for management of malignant gastric outlet obstruction: a prospective cohort study with matched comparison with enteral stenting.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Retrospective studies on malignant gastric outlet obstruction (mGOO) highlighted several advantages of EUS-guided gastroenterostomy (EUS-GE) over enteral stenting (ES). However, no prospective evidence is available. The aim of this study was to report on clinical outcomes of EUS-GE in a prospective cohort study, with a subgroup comparison versus ES. METHODS: All consecutive patients endoscopically treated for mGOO between December 2020 and December 2022 in a tertiary, academic center were enrolled in a prospective registry (Prospective Registry of Therapeutic Endoscopic Ultrasound [PROTECT]; NCT04813055) and followed up every 30 days to register efficacy/safety outcomes. EUS-GE and ES cohorts were matched according to baseline frailty and oncologic disease. RESULTS: A total of 104 patients were treated for mGOO during the study; 70 (58.6% male subjects; median age, 64 [interquartile range, 58-73] years; 75.7% pancreatic cancer, 60.0% metastatic cancer) underwent EUS-GE via the wireless simplified technique. Technical success was 97.1% and clinical success was 97.1% after a median of 1.5 (interquartile range, 1-2) days. Adverse events occurred in 9 (12.9%) patients. After a median follow-up of 105 (49-187) days, symptom recurrence was 7.6%. In the matched comparison versus ES (28 patients per arm), EUS-GE-treated patients experienced higher and faster clinical success (100% vs 75.0%, P = .006), reduced recurrences (3.7% vs 33.3%, P = .02), and a trend toward shorter time to chemotherapy. CONCLUSIONS: In this first, prospective, single-center comparison, EUS-GE showed excellent efficacy in treating mGOO, with an acceptable safety profile and long-term patency, and several clinically significant advantages over ES. While awaiting randomized trials, these results might endorse EUS-GE as first-line strategy for mGOO, where adequate expertise is available.

Prognostic Factors across Poorly Differentiated Neuroendocrine Neoplasms: A Pooled Analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Poorly differentiated neuroendocrine carcinomas (NECs) are characterized by aggressive clinical course and poor prognosis. No reliable prognostic markers have been validated to date; thus, the definition of a specific NEC prognostic algorithm represents a clinical need. This study aimed to analyze a large NEC case series to validate the specific prognostic factors identified in previous studies on gastro-entero-pancreatic and lung NECs and to assess if further prognostic parameters can be isolated. METHODS: A pooled analysis of four NEC retrospective studies was performed to evaluate the prognostic role of Ki-67 cut-off, the overall survival (OS) according to primary cancer site, and further prognostic parameters using multivariable Cox proportional hazards model and machine learning random survival forest (RSF). RESULTS: 422 NECs were analyzed. The most represented tumor site was the colorectum (n = 156, 37%), followed by the lungs (n = 111, 26%), gastroesophageal site (n = 83, 20%; 66 gastric, 79%) and pancreas (n = 42, 10%). The Ki-67 index was the most relevant predictor, followed by morphology (pure or mixed/combined NECs), stage, and site. The predicted RSF response for survival at 1, 2, or 3 years showed decreasing survival with increasing Ki-67, pure NEC morphology, stage III-IV, and colorectal NEC disease. Patients with Ki-67 <55% and mixed/combined morphology had better survival than those with pure morphology. Morphology pure or mixed/combined became irrelevant in NEC survival when Ki-67 was ≥55%. The prognosis of metastatic patients who did not receive any treatment tended to be worse compared to that of the treated group. The prognostic impact of Rb1 immunolabeling appears to be limited when multiple risk factors are simultaneously assessed. CONCLUSION: The most effective parameters to predict OS for NEC patients could be Ki-67, pure or mixed/combined morphology, stage, and site.

A Randomized Trial of Robotic Mastectomy Versus Open Surgery in Women With Breast Cancer or BrCA Mutation.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to compare robotic mastectomy with open classical technique outcomes in breast cancer patients. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: As the use of robotic nipple sparing mastectomy continues to rise, improved understanding of the surgical, oncologic, and quality of life outcomes is imperative for appropriate patient selection as well as to better understand indications, limits, advantages, and dangers. METHODS: In a phase III, open label, single-center, randomized controlled trial involving 80 women with breast cancer (69) or with BRCA mutation (11), we compared the outcome of robotic and open nipple sparing mastectomy. Primary outcomes were surgical complications and quality of life using specific validated questionnaires. Secondary objective included oncologic outcomes. RESULTS: Robotic procedure was 1 hour and 18 minutes longer than open (P < 0.001). No differences in the number or type of complications (P = 0.11) were observed. Breast-Q scores in satisfaction with breasts, psychosocial, physical and sexual well-being were significantly higher after robotic mastectomy versus open procedure. Respect to baseline, physical and sexual well-being domains remained stable after robotic mastectomy, whereas they significantly decreased after open procedure (P < 0.02). The overall Body Image Scale questionnaire score was 20.7 ±â€Š13.8 versus 9.9 ±â€Š5.1 in the robotic versus open groups respectively, P < 0.0001. At median follow-up 28.6months (range 3.7-43.3), no local events were observed. CONCLUSIONS: Complications were similar among groups upholding the robotic technique to be safe. Quality of life was maintained after robotic mastectomy while significantly decrease after open surgery. Early follow-up confirm no premature local failure.ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03440398.

Identification of patients with branch-duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm and very low risk of cancer: multicentre study.

BACKGROUND: Different surveillance strategies for patients with low-risk branch-duct (BD) intraductal papillary neoplasm (IPMN) have been described. The aim of this study was to describe the natural history of low-risk BD-IPMN, and to identify risk factors for the development of worrisome features (WF)/high-risk stigmata (HRS) and of pancreatic malignancies. METHODS: This was a multicentre retrospective study of patients with BD-IPMN who were under active surveillance between January 2006 and December 2015. Patients were eligible if they had a low-risk lesion and had a minimum follow-up of 24 months. Outcomes were development of WF/HRS or cytologically/histologically confirmed malignant IPMN. RESULTS: Of 837 patients included, 168 (20 per cent) developed WF/HRS. At the end of the observation time, 132 patients (79 per cent) with WF/HRS were still under surveillance without progression to pancreatic cancer. Factors associated with the development of WF or HRS in multivariable analysis included localized nodules (versus diffuse: hazard ratio (HR) 0.43, 95 per cent c.i. 0.26 to 0.68), cyst size 15-19 mm (versus less than 15 mm: HR 1.88, 1.23 to 2.87) or at least 20 mm (versus less than 15 mm: HR 3.25, 2.30 to 4.60), main pancreatic duct size over 3 mm (versus 3 mm or less: HR 2.17, 1.41 to 3.34), and symptoms at diagnosis (versus no symptoms: HR 2.29, 1.52 to 3.45). Surveillance in an endoscopy-oriented centre was also associated with increased detection of WF or HRS (versus radiology-oriented: HR 2.46, 1.74 to 3.47). CONCLUSION: Conservative management of patients with low-risk BD-IPMN is safe and feasible.

Maternal mortality in the Middle East and North Africa region - how could countries move towards obstetric transition stage 5?

BACKGROUND: Maternal mortality in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region decreased significantly between 1990 and 2017. This was uneven, however, with some countries faring much better than others. METHODS: We undertook a trend analysis of Maternal Mortality Ratios (MMRs) of countries in the region in order to understand differences in reduction across countries. Data were extracted from several databases for 23 countries and territories in the region on measures of women's empowerment, availability of vehicles and human resources for health (as a proxy to the three delays model). We identified factors associated with MMR by grouping countries into five different Stages (I-V) of obstetric transition from high to low MMRs. RESULTS: Among the four Stage II countries, MMR is associated with "antenatal care coverage (% with at least one visit)" and "medical doctors per 10,000 population". Among the eight Stage III countries, MMR is associated with "Gender Parity Index in primary and secondary level school enrolment" and with "nursing and midwifery personnel per 10,000 population". Among the 10 countries and one territory in Stages IV and V, MMR is associated with "GDP per capita", "nursing and midwifery personnel", and "motor vehicle ownership/motorization rate". Two factors were associated with changes in MMR from the period 2006-2010 to 2011-2015: 1) change in adolescent birth rate (r = 0.90, p = 0.005) and 2) Gender Parity Index in primary level school enrolment (r = - 0.51, p = 0.04). CONCLUSION: Though impressive reductions in MMR have been achieved across countries in the MENA region since 1990, governments should realize that there exists an opportunity to learn from each other to bring MMRs as close to zero as possible. Immediate steps in the right direction would include investment in human resources for health, particularly nurses and midwives; measures to improve adolescent sexual and reproductive health; and greater investments in achieving gender equity in education.

Intraoperative irradiation for early breast cancer (ELIOT): long-term recurrence and survival outcomes from a single-centre, randomised, phase 3 equivalence trial.

BACKGROUND: In the randomised, phase 3 equivalence trial on electron intraoperative radiotherapy (ELIOT), accelerated partial breast irradiation (APBI) with the use of intraoperative radiotherapy was associated with a higher rate of ipsilateral breast tumour recurrence (IBTR) than whole-breast irradiation (WBI) in patients with early-stage breast cancer. Here, we aimed to examine the planned long-term recurrence and survival outcomes from the ELIOT trial. METHODS: This single-centre, randomised, phase 3 equivalence trial was done at the European Institute of Oncology (Milan, Italy). Eligible women, aged 48-75 years with a clinical diagnosis of a unicentric breast carcinoma with an ultrasound diameter not exceeding 25 mm, clinically negative axillary lymph nodes, and who were suitable for breast-conserving surgery, were randomly assigned (1:1) via a web-based system, with a random permuted block design (block size of 16) and stratified by clinical tumour size, to receive post-operative WBI with conventional fractionation (50 Gy given as 25 fractions of 2 Gy, plus a 10 Gy boost), or 21 Gy intraoperative radiotherapy with electrons (ELIOT) in a single dose to the tumour bed during surgery. The trial was open label and no-one was masked to treatment group assignment. The primary endpoint was the occurrence of IBTR. The trial was designed assuming a 5-year IBTR rate of 3% in the WBI group and equivalence of the two groups, if the 5-year IBTR rate in the ELIOT group did not exceed a 2·5 times excess, corresponding to 7·5%. Overall survival was the secondary endpoint. The main analysis was done by intention to treat. The cumulative incidence of IBTR events and overall survival were assessed at 5, 10, and 15 years of follow-up. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01849133. FINDINGS: Between Nov 20, 2000, and Dec 27, 2007, 1305 women were enrolled and randomly assigned: 654 to the WBI group and 651 to the ELIOT group. After a median follow-up of 12·4 years (IQR 9·7-14·7), 86 (7%) patients developed IBTR, with 70 (11%) cases in the ELIOT group and 16 (2%) in the WBI group, corresponding to an absolute excess of 54 IBTRs in the ELIOT group (HR 4·62, 95% CI 2·68-7·95, p<0·0001). In the ELIOT group, the 5-year IBTR rate was 4·2% (95% CI 2·8-5·9), the 10-year rate was 8·1% (6·1-10·3), and the 15-year rate was 12·6% (9·8-15·9). In the WBI group, the 5-year IBTR rate was 0·5% (95% CI 0·1-1·3), the 10-year rate was 1·1% (0·5-2·2), and the 15-year rate was 2·4% (1·4-4·0). At final follow-up on March 11, 2019, 193 (15%) women had died from any cause, with no difference between the two groups (98 deaths in the ELIOT group vs 95 in the WBI group; HR 1·03, 95% CI 0·77-1·36, p=0·85). In the ELIOT group, the overall survival rate was 96·8% (95% CI 95·1-97·9) at 5 years, 90·7% (88·2-92·7) at 10 years, and 83·4% (79·7-86·4) at 15 years; and in the WBI group, the overall survival rate was 96·8% (95·1-97·9) at 5 years, 92·7% (90·4-94·4) at 10 years, and 82·4% (78·5-85·6) at 15 years. We did not collect long-term data on adverse events. INTERPRETATION: The long-term results of this trial confirmed the higher rate of IBTR in the ELIOT group than in the WBI group, without any differences in overall survival. ELIOT should be offered to selected patients at low-risk of IBTR. FUNDING: Italian Association for Cancer Research, Jacqueline Seroussi Memorial Foundation for Cancer Research, Umberto Veronesi Foundation, American Italian Cancer Foundation, The Lombardy Region, and Italian Ministry of Health.

Mastectomy alone for pT1-2 pN0-1 breast cancer patients: when postmastectomy radiotherapy is indicated.

PURPOSE: To assess outcome of breast cancer (BC) stages pT1-2 N0-1 after mastectomy alone and to identify prognostic factors calling for the need of postmastectomy radiotherapy. METHODS: Patients who were not eligible for breast conserving surgery (BCS) were operated on with mastectomy between 1998 and 2008. Locoregional (LRR), distant (DM) control and breast cancer specific survival (BCSS) were retrospectively evaluated. Cumulative incidence (CI) of events was estimated according to Kalbfleisch and Prentice while Gray's test tested difference. Kaplan-Meier method for survival and Cox proportional hazards model for univariable and multivariable analysis were used. A matched pair analysis between mastectomy alone and BCS plus whole breast irradiation (WBI), using the propensity score method, was performed. RESULTS: 1281 pT1-2 N0 and 1081 pT1-2 N1 were identified. Median follow-up was 8.2 years (9.2 years for survival). Overall, LRR rate was low for both N0 and N1 subgroups (10-year CI, 8.8% and 10.9%, respectively). Young age, lymphovascular invasion and Ki-67 ≥ 20% were proved to be statistically significant prognostic factors at multivariable analysis. The combination of ≥ 2 risk factors increased LRR rate to ≥ 15%. Risk factors combination weighed on LRR rate more than nodal status itself. DM rate doubled moving from negative to positive nodal status (10-year CI 10.5% versus 20.3%, respectively). BCSS remained high in both N0 and N1 subgroups (10-year CI 92.4% versus 84.5%, respectively). Remarkably, all the molecular subtypes except Luminal A significantly affected DM and BCSS both in the N0 and N1 subgroups. Nodes number significantly impacted on DM and BCSS but not on locoregional control. In the matched pair analysis, WBI decreased nodal recurrence rate and improved distant control, without affecting survival. CONCLUSIONS: Selected patients, namely those with at least two additional risk factors, presented high enough LRR risk to support the use of postmastectomy radiotherapy in both N0 and N1 subgroups. Moreover, the observation that radiotherapy may provide benefits that go beyond local control deserves to be further investigated.

The harmless acute pancreatitis score (HAPS) identifies non-severe patients: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

INTRODUCTION: We previously described a scoring system to identify patients with harmless acute pancreatitis as defined by absence of pancreatic necrosis, no need for artificial ventilation or dialysis, and non-fatal course. This scoring system, the Harmless Acute Pancreatitis Score (HAPS), can be quickly calculated from three parameters: absence of abdominal tenderness or rebound, normal hematocrit and normal creatinine level. We aim to assess the positive predictive value (PPV) of the HAPS by performing a meta-analysis of subsequently published studies. METHODS: We performed a literature search using Pubmed, Web of ScienceTM and Google Scholar. We used random effects models, with maximum likelihood estimates, to estimate the PPV of HAPS. We produced forest plots and used the I2 statistic to quantify heterogeneity. RESULTS: Twenty reports covering 6374 patients were identified. The overall PPV based on 16 studies that closely followed the original description of the HAPS system was 97% (95%CI 95-99%) with significant heterogeneity (I2 = 76%; P < 0.01). For 11 studies in which HAPS was used to identify patients with mild AP, the overall PPV dropped to 83% (74-91%). For 8 studies in which HAPS was used to predict non-fatal course the overall PPV was 98% (97-100%). CONCLUSION: The HAPS, if used as originally defined, accurately identifies patients with non-severe AP who will not require ICU care and facilitate selection of patients who can be discharged after a short stay on a general ward or can even be cared for at home. This could free hospital beds for other purposes and decrease healthcare costs.

Ki-67 Index of 55% Distinguishes Two Groups of Bronchopulmonary Pure and Composite Large Cell Neuroendocrine Carcinomas with Distinct Prognosis.

BACKGROUND: Little information is available concerning prognostic factors for bronchopulmonary large cell neuroendocrine carcinomas (BP-LCNECs) and even less is known about combined LCNECs (Co-LCNECs). We investigated whether an integrated morphological, immunohistochemical, and molecular approach could be used for their prognostic evaluation. METHODS: Morphological (including combined features), proliferative (mitotic count/Ki-67 index), immunohistochemical (napsin A, p40, TTF-1, CD44, OTP, SSTR2A, SSTR5, mASH1, p53, RB1, and MDM2), and genomic (TP53, RB1, ATM, JAK2, KRAS, and STK11) findings were analyzed in BP-LCNECs from 5 Italian centers, and correlated with overall survival (OS). The Ki-67 index was expressed as the percentage of positive cells in hot spots as indicated in the WHO 2019 Digestive System Tumors and, for Co-LCNECs, the Ki-67 index was evaluated only in the LCNEC component. RESULTS: A total of 111 LCNECs were distinguished into 70 pure LCNECs, 35 Co-LCNECs (27 with adenocarcinoma [ADC] and 8 with squamous cell carcinoma [SqCC]), and 6 LCNECs with only napsin A immunoreactivity. The Ki-67 index cutoff at 55% evaluated in the neuroendocrine component was the most powerful predictor of OS (log-rank p = 0.0001) in all LCNECs; 34 cases had a Ki-67 index <55% (LCNEC-A) and 77 had a Ki-67 index ≥55% (LCNEC-B). Statistically significant differences in OS (log-rank p = 0.0001) were also observed between pure and Co-LCNECs. A significant difference in OS was found between pure LCNECs-A and Co-LCNECs-A (p < 0.05) but not between pure LCNECs-B and Co-LCNECs-B. Co-LCNEC-ADC and LCNEC napsin A+ cases had longer OS than pure LCNEC and Co-LCNEC-SqCC cases (log-rank p = 0.0001). On multivariable analysis, tumor location, pure versus combined features, and napsin A, but no single gene mutation, were significantly associated with OS after adjustment for Ki-67 index and study center (p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The Ki-67 proliferation index and the morphological characterization of combined features in LCNECs seem to be important tools for predicting clinical outcome in BP-LCNECs.

Influence of Age on 2040 Cancer Burden in the Older Population of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Countries: Public Health Implications.

INTRODUCTION AND STUDY AIMS: The underlying population of global regions varies widely and is a major determinant of regional cancer differences. The aims were to: (1) estimate the cancer burden in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries in 2040 for the ≥70 population and (2) assess the public health implications for this cancer increase. METHODS: We used Global Cancer Observatory (GLOBOCAN) estimates of cancer incidence and mortality for people aged 70 years or more in GCC countries from 2018 to 2040 from the International Agency for Research on Cancer. For population growth, we used data for the same period from the Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. From these, we calculated the predicted increase in the number of cancer cases and cancer deaths from 2018 to 2040 and the proportion of cases/deaths represented by those aged 70+ for the 2 time periods. FINDINGS: In the GCC countries, the predicted number of newly diagnosed cancers and cancer deaths in the older population will increase by 465% and 462% respectively due to demographic changes-greater than other countries in the World Health Organization Eastern Mediterranean Region, or in countries of similar economic development. The largest predicted increases will be for Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Based on the predicted population age, cancer burden among older people in the GCC countries will increase by approximately 460%. CONCLUSION: By the year 2040, the relationship between cancer and age will cause a 4- to 5-fold increase in the cancer burden in the GCC. These predictable changes will require additional planning and resources to provide appropriate healthcare.

Chronic use of statins and acetylsalicylic acid and incidence of post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography acute pancreatitis: A multicenter, prospective, cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: Post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) acute pancreatitis (PEP) is a frequent complication of this endoscopic procedure. Chronic statin intake has been linked to lower incidence and severity of acute pancreatitis (AP). Periprocedural rectal administration of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs is protective against PEP, but the role of chronic acetylsalicylic acid (ASA) treatment is unclear. We aimed to investigate whether statins and chronic ASA intake are associated with lower risk of PEP. METHODS: An international, multicenter, prospective cohort study. Consecutive patients undergoing ERCP in seven European centers were included. Patients were followed-up to detect those with PEP. Multivariate analysis by means of binary logistic regression was performed, and adjusted odds ratios (aORs) were calculated. RESULTS: A total of 1150 patients were included, and 70 (6.1%) patients developed PEP. Among statins users, 8.1% developed PEP vs. 5.4% among non-users (P = 0.09). Multivariate analysis showed no association between statin use and PEP incidence (aOR 1.68 (95% CI 0.94-2.99, P = 0.08)). Statin use had no effect on severity of PEP, being mild in 92.0% of statin users vs. 82.2% in non-statin users (P = 0.31). Chronic ASA use was not associated with PEP either (aOR 1.02 (95% CI 0.49-2.13), P = 0.96). Abuse of alcohol and previous endoscopic biliary sphincterotomy were protective factors against PEP, while >1 pancreatic guidewire passage, normal bilirubin values, and duration of the procedure >20 minutes, were risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: The use of statins or ASA is not associated with a lower risk or a milder course of PEP.

Clinical performance of contrast-enhanced spectral mammography in pre-surgical evaluation of breast malignant lesions in dense breasts: a single center study.

PURPOSE: To compare the efficacy of contrast-enhanced spectral mammography, with ultrasound, full field digital mammography and magnetic resonance imaging in detection and size estimation of histologically proven breast tumors. METHODS: This open-label, single center, prospective study, included 160 dense breast women with at least one suspicious mammary lesion evaluated by ultrasound, full field digital mammography and magnetic resonance imaging in whom a mammary tumor was histologically proven after surgery performed at the European Institute of Oncology between January 2013 and December 2015. Following the complete diagnostic procedure, the patients were further investigated by contrast-enhanced spectral mammography prior to surgery. RESULTS: Overall, the detection rate of malignant breast lesions (in situ and invasive) was 93.8% (165/176) for contrast-enhanced spectral mammography, 94.4% (168/178) for ultrasound, 85.5 (147/172) for full field digital mammography and 97.7% (173/177) for magnetic resonance imaging. Radiological measurements were concordant with the post-surgical pathological measurements of the invasive tumor (i.e., within 5 mm) in: 64.6% for contrast-enhanced spectral mammography, 62.0% for ultrasound, 45.2% for full field digital mammography (p < 0.0001) and 69.9% for magnetic resonance imaging (p = 0.28); underestimated in: 17.4% for contrast-enhanced spectral mammography, 19.6% for ultrasound, 24.2% for full field digital mammography (p = 0.03) and 6.7% for magnetic resonance imaging (p = 0.0005); and overestimated in: 16.2% for contrast-enhanced spectral mammography, 16.6% for ultrasound, 16.6% for full field digital mammography and 22.7% for magnetic resonance imaging (p = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: Our data suggest that contrast-enhanced spectral mammography improves on full field digital mammography and is comparable to ultrasound and magnetic resonance imaging in terms of detection sensitivity and size estimation of malignant lesions in dense breasts.