Monitoring of Leishmania transmission in the post-elimination phase: the potential of serological surveys.

OBJECTIVES: Monitoring of Leishmania transmission is considered a strategic priority for sustaining elimination of visceral leishmaniasis as a public health problem in the Indian subcontinent. The objective of this study was to evaluate whether serological surveys can distinguish between communities with and without Leishmania transmission, and to assess which serological marker performs best. METHODS: Seven villages were selected from Bihar and Uttar Pradesh state, India, and categorized as either currently endemic, previously endemic or non-endemic. Blood samples were analyzed with the rK39 RDT, DAT, and rK39 ELISA. RESULTS: Contrary to the rK39 RDT and DAT, the rK39 ELISA showed a significant difference between all three categories of endemicity, with a seroprevalence of 5.21% in currently endemic villages, 1.55% in previously endemic villages, and 0.13% in non-endemic villages. Even when only looking at the seroprevalence among children aged <10 years, the rK39 ELISA was still able to differentiate between villages with and without ongoing transmission. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest the rK39 ELISA to be the most promising marker for monitoring of Leishmania transmission. Further validation is required, and practical, context-adapted recommendations need to be formulated in order to guide policy makers towards meaningful and sustainable surveillance strategies in the post-elimination phase.

Retrospective Quarterly Cohort Monitoring for patients with Visceral Leishmaniasis in the Indian subcontinent: outcomes of a pilot project.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate a new tool for the monitoring of Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL) treatment outcomes in primary healthcare (PHC) settings, adapted from the standardised Retrospective Quarterly Cohort Monitoring done in tuberculosis control. METHODS: We developed standard case definitions for early and late VL treatment outcomes, a single register allowing for one-line entry per patient as registration tool, and quarterly reporting formats for the clinical outcomes. We pilot-tested these tools in three Indian Primary Health Centres and two Nepalese district hospitals, as well as in a charity VL treatment centre and a university hospital. RESULTS: Data collection for early treatment outcome was easily implemented but information on late treatment outcome was hard to obtain. Effectiveness of Miltefosine under routine care conditions was about 87% at end of treatment, and 76% at 6 months post-treatment related to the high number of patients lost to follow up at the latter end point. CONCLUSION: A retrospective cohort monitoring methodology is conceptually a good framework for monitoring clinical outcomes for chronic conditions as VL. The monitoring of early outcomes of VL treatment is perfectly feasible in Primary Care settings. The completeness of information on late outcomes can be improved by a number of strategies that remain to be field tested. Generally, clinical outcome monitoring should be strengthened in the VL control programmes.

Host, parasite and drug determinants of clinical outcomes following treatment of visceral leishmaniasis: a protocol for individual participant data meta-analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a parasitic disease with an estimated 30 000 new cases occurring annually. There is an observed variation in the efficacy of the current first-line therapies across different regions. Such heterogeneity could be a function of host, parasite and drug factors. An individual participant data meta-analysis (IPD-MA) is planned to explore the determinants of treatment outcomes. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The Infectious Diseases Data Observatory (IDDO) VL living systematic review (IDDO VL LSR) library is an open-access resource of all published therapeutic studies in VL since 1980. For this current review, the search includes all clinical trials published between 1 January 1980 and 2 May 2021. Studies indexed in the IDDO VL LSR library were screened for eligibility for inclusion in this IPD-MA. Corresponding authors and principal investigators of the studies meeting the eligibility criteria for inclusion were invited to be part of the collaborative IPD-MA. Authors agreeing to participate in this collaborative research were requested to share the IPD using the IDDO VL data platform. The IDDO VL data platform currently holds data sets from clinical trials standardised to a common data format and provides a unique opportunity to identify host, parasite and drug determinants of treatment outcomes. Multivariable regression models will be constructed to identify determinants of therapeutic outcomes using generalised linear mixed-effects models accounting for within-study site clustering. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This IPD-MA meets the criteria for waiver of ethical review as defined by the Oxford Tropical Research Ethics Committee (OxTREC) granted to IDDO, as the research consists of secondary analysis of existing anonymised data (Exempt granted on 29 March 2023, OxTREC REF: IDDO) Ethics approval was granted by the ICMR-Rajendra Memorial Research Institute of Medical Sciences ethics committee (Letter no: RMRI/EC/30/2022) on 04-07-2022. The results of this IPD-MA will be disseminated at conferences, IDDO website and any peer-reviewed publications. All publications will be open source. Findings of this research will be critically important for the control programmes at regional/global levels, policy makers and groups developing new VL treatments. PROSPERO REGISTRATION: CRD42021284622.

Wuchereria bancrofti infection is associated with progression to clinical visceral leishmaniasis in VL- endemic areas in Muzaffarpur, Bihar, India.

BACKGROUND: Co-endemicity of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) necessitates that these diseases should be considered concomitantly to understand the relationship between pathology and to support disease management and control programs. The aims of the study were to assess the prevalence of filarial infection in asymptomatic Leishmania donovani infected individuals and the correlation of Wuchereria bancrofti infection with progression to clinical visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in Bihar, India. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Within the Muzaffarpur-TMRC Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) area, a cohort of Leishmania seropositive (n = 476) or seronegative individuals (n = 1130) were sampled annually for three years for filarial infection and followed for progression to clinical VL. To corroborate the results from the cohort study, we also used a retrospective case-control study of 36 VL cases and 71 controls selected from a subset of the HDSS population to investigate the relationship between progression to clinical VL and the prevalence of filarial infection at baseline. Our findings suggest a higher probability of progression to clinical VL in individuals with a history of filarial infection: in both the cohort and case-control studies, progression to clinical VL was higher among filaria infected individuals (RR = 2.57, p = 0.056, and OR = 2.52, p = 0.046 respectively). CONCLUSION: This study describes that progression to clinical VL disease is associated with serological evidence of prior infection with W. bancrofti. The integration of disease programs for Leishmania and lymphatic filariasis extend beyond the relationship of sequential or co-infection with disease burden. To ensure elimination targets can be reached and sustained, we suggest areas of co-endemicity would benefit from overlapping vector control activities, health system networks and surveillance infrastructure.

Field-friendly anti-PGL-I serosurvey in children to monitor Mycobacterium leprae transmission in Bihar, India.

Background: It has been amply described that levels of IgM antibodies against Mycobacterium leprae (M. leprae) phenolic glycolipid I (PGL-I) correlate strongly with the bacterial load in an infected individual. These findings have generated the concept of using seropositivity for antibodies against M. leprae PGL-I as an indicator of the proportion of the population that has been infected. Although anti-PGL-I IgM levels provide information on whether an individual has ever been infected, their presence cannot discriminate between recent and past infections. Since infection in (young) children by definition indicates recent transmission, we piloted the feasibility of assessment of anti-PGL-I IgM seroprevalence among children in a leprosy endemic area in India as a proxy for recent M. leprae transmission. Material and methods: A serosurvey for anti-PGL-I IgM antibodies among children in highly leprosy endemic villages in Bihar, India, was performed, applying the quantitative anti-PGL-I UCP-LFA cassette combined with low-invasive, small-volume fingerstick blood (FSB). Results: Local staff obtained FSB of 1,857 children (age 3-11 years) living in 12 leprosy endemic villages in Bihar; of these, 215 children (11.58%) were seropositive for anti-PGL-I IgM. Conclusion: The anti-PGL-I seroprevalence level of 11.58% among children corresponds with the seroprevalence levels described in studies in other leprosy endemic areas over the past decades where no prophylactic interventions have taken place. The anti-PGL-I UCP-LFA was found to be a low-complexity tool that could be practically combined with serosurveys and was well-accepted by both healthcare staff and the population. On route to leprosy elimination, quantitative anti-PGL-I serology in young children holds promise as a strategy to monitor recent M. leprae transmission in an area.

Haematological dynamics following treatment of visceral leishmaniasis: a protocol for systematic review and individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a parasitic disease with an estimated 30 000 new cases occurring annually. Despite anaemia being a common haematological manifestation of VL, the evolution of different haematological characteristics following treatment remains poorly understood. An individual participant data meta-analysis (IPD-MA) is planned to characterise the haematological dynamics in patients with VL. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The Infectious Diseases Data Observatory (IDDO) VL data platform is a global repository of IPD from therapeutic studies identified through a systematic search of published literature (PROSPERO registration: CRD42021284622). The platform currently holds datasets from clinical trials standardised to a common data format. Corresponding authors and principal investigators of the studies indexed in the IDDO VL data platform meeting the eligibility criteria for inclusion were invited to be part of the collaborative IPD-MA. Mixed-effects multivariable regression models will be constructed to identify determinants of haematological parameters by taking clustering within study sites into account. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This IPD-MA meets the criteria for waiver of ethical review as defined by the Oxford Tropical Research Ethics Committee (OxTREC) granted to IDDO, as the research consists of secondary analysis of existing anonymised data (exempt granted on 29 March 2023, OxTREC REF: IDDO). Ethics approval was granted by the ICMR-Rajendra Memorial Research Institute of Medical Sciences ethics committee (letter no.: RMRI/EC/30/2022) on 4 July 2022. The results of this analysis will be disseminated at conferences, the IDDO website and peer-reviewed publications in open-access journals. The findings of this research will be critically important for control programmes at regional and global levels, policymakers and groups developing new VL treatments. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42021284622.

Visceral leishmaniasis in rural bihar, India.

To identify factors associated with incidence of visceral leishmaniasis (VL), we surveyed 13,416 households in Bihar State, India. VL was associated with socioeconomic status, type of housing, and belonging to the Musahar caste. Annual coverage of indoor residual insecticide spraying was 12%. Increasing such spraying can greatly contribute to VL control.

Active case detection in national visceral leishmaniasis elimination programs in Bangladesh, India, and Nepal: feasibility, performance and costs.

BACKGROUND: Active case detection (ACD) significantly contributes to early detection and treatment of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) and post kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis (PKDL) cases and is cost effective. This paper evaluates the performance and feasibility of adapting ACD strategies into national programs for VL elimination in Bangladesh, India and Nepal. METHODS: The camp search and index case search strategies were piloted in 2010-11 by national programs in high and moderate endemic districts / sub-districts respectively. Researchers independently assessed the performance and feasibility of these strategies through direct observation of activities and review of records. Program costs were estimated using an ingredients costing method. RESULTS: Altogether 48 camps (Bangladesh-27, India-19, Nepal-2) and 81 index case searches (India-36, Nepal-45) were conducted by the health services across 50 health center areas (Bangladesh-4 Upazillas, India-9 PHCs, Nepal-37 VDCs). The mean number of new case detected per camp was 1.3 and it varied from 0.32 in India to 2.0 in Bangladesh. The cost (excluding training costs) of detecting one new VL case per camp varied from USD 22 in Bangladesh, USD 199 in Nepal to USD 320 in India. The camp search strategy detected a substantive number of new PKDL cases. The major challenges faced by the programs were inadequate preparation, time and resources spent on promoting camp awareness through IEC activities in the community. Incorrectly diagnosed splenic enlargement at camps probably due to poor clinical examination skills resulted in a high proportion of patients being subjected to rK39 testing. CONCLUSION: National programs can adapt ACD strategies for detection of new VL/PKDL cases. However adequate time and resources are required for training, planning and strengthening referral services to overcome challenges faced by the programs in conducting ACD.

Diagnosis of Visceral Leishmaniasis in an Elimination Setting: A Validation Study of the Diagnostic Algorithm in India.

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is on the verge of elimination on the Indian subcontinent. Nonetheless, the currently low VL-incidence setting brings along new challenges, one of which is the validity of the diagnostic algorithm, based on a combination of suggestive clinical symptoms in combination with a positive rK39 Rapid Diagnostic Test (RDT). With this study, we aimed to assess the positive predictive value of the diagnostic algorithm in the current low-endemic setting in India by re-assessing newly diagnosed VL patients with a qPCR analysis on venous blood as the reference test. In addition, we evaluated the specificity of the rK39 RDT by testing non-VL cases with the rK39 RDT. Participants were recruited in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, India. VL patients diagnosed based on the diagnostic algorithm were recruited through six primary health care centers (PHCs); non-VL cases were identified through a door-to-door survey in currently endemic, previously endemic, and non-endemic clusters, and tested with rK39 RDT, as well as-if positive-with qPCR on peripheral blood. We found that 95% (70/74; 95% CI 87-99%) of incident VL cases diagnosed at the PHC level using the current diagnostic algorithm were confirmed by qPCR. Among 15,422 non-VL cases, 39 were rK39 RDT positive, reflecting a specificity of the test of 99.7% (95% CI 99.7-99.8%). The current diagnostic algorithm combining suggestive clinical features with a positive rK39 RDT still seems valid in the current low-endemic setting in India.

Male predominance in reported Visceral Leishmaniasis cases: Nature or nurture? A comparison of population-based with health facility-reported data.

BACKGROUND: Bangladesh, India, and Nepal aim for the elimination of Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL), a systemic parasitic infectious disease, as a public health problem by 2020. For decades, male patients have comprised the majority of reported VL cases in this region. By comparing this reported VL sex ratio to the one observed in population-based studies conducted in the Indian subcontinent, we tested the working hypothesis that mainly socio-cultural gender differences in healthcare-seeking behavior explain this gender imbalance. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We compared the observed sex ratio of male versus female among all VL cases reported by the health system in Nepal and in the two most endemic states in India with that observed in population-based cohort studies in India and Nepal. Also, we assessed male sex as a potential risk factor for seroprevalence at baseline, seroconversion, and VL incidence in the same population-based data. The male/female ratio among VL cases reported by the health systems was 1.40 (95% CI 1.37-1.43). In the population cohort data, the age- and study site-adjusted male to female risk ratio was 1.27 (95% CI 1.08-1.51). Also, males had a 19% higher chance of being seropositive at baseline in the population surveys (RR 1.19; 95% CI 1.11-1.27), while we observed no significant difference in seroconversion rate between both sexes at the DAT cut-off titer defined as the primary endpoint. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our population-based data show that male sex is a risk factor for VL, and not only as a socio-cultural determinant. Biological sex-related differences likely play an important role in the pathogenesis of this disease.

Post kala azar dermal leishmaniasis and leprosy prevalence and distribution in the Muzaffarpur health and demographic surveillance site.

INTRODUCTION: Post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis (PKDL) is a skin manifestation that is a late clinical outcome of visceral leishmaniasis (VL). Its presentation is similar to leprosy, and the differential diagnosis is not always easy. In VL endemic rural areas of Bihar, India, both infectious diseases co-exist. This observational study aimed to determine the prevalence and distribution of both conditions in an area that had until recently been highly endemic for VL. METHODS: We conducted a door-to-door survey in an area that belongs to the Health and Demographic Surveillance Site (HDSS) of Muzaffarpur, Bihar, India. Within the HDSS we selected the villages that had reported the highest numbers of VL cases in preceding years. All consenting household members were screened for skin conditions, and minor conditions were treated on the spot. Upon completion of screening activities at the level of a few villages, a dermatology clinic ("skin camp") was conducted to which suspect leprosy and PKDL patients and other patients with skin conditions requiring expert advice were referred. We studied the association between distance from an index case of leprosy and the probability of disease in the neighborhood by fitting a Poisson model. RESULTS: We recorded a population of 33,319, out of which 25,686 (77.1%) were clinically screened. Participation in skin camps was excellent. Most common conditions were fungal infections, eczema, and scabies. There were three PKDL patients and 44 active leprosy patients, equivalent to a prevalence rate of leprosy of 17.1 per 10,000. Two out of three PKDL patients had a history of VL. Leprosy patients were widely spread across villages, but within villages, we found strong spatial clustering, with incidence rate ratios of 6.3 (95% C.I. 1.9-21.0) for household members and 3.6 (95% C.I. 1.3-10.2) for neighbors within 25 meters, with those living at more than 100 meters as the reference category. DISCUSSION: Even in this previously highly VL endemic area, PKDL is a rare condition. Nevertheless, even a single case can trigger a new VL outbreak. Leprosy is also a rare disease, but current prevalence is over 17 times the elimination threshold proclaimed by WHO. Both diseases require continued surveillance. Active case finding for leprosy can be recommended among household members and close neighbors of leprosy patients but would not be feasible for entire populations. Periodic skin camps may be a feasible and affordable alternative.

Determinants for progression from asymptomatic infection to symptomatic visceral leishmaniasis: A cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Asymptomatic Leishmania donovani infections outnumber clinical presentations, however the predictors for development of active disease are not well known. We aimed to identify serological, immunological and genetic markers for progression from L. donovani infection to clinical Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL). METHODS: We enrolled all residents >2 years of age in 27 VL endemic villages in Bihar (India). Blood samples collected on filter paper on two occasions 6-12 months apart, were tested for antibodies against L. donovani with rK39-ELISA and DAT. Sero converters, (negative for both tests in the first round but positive on either of the two during the second round) and controls (negative on both tests on both occasions) were followed for three years. At the start of follow-up venous blood was collected for the following tests: DAT, rK39- ELISA, Quantiferon assay, SNP/HLA genotyping and L.donovani specific quantitative PCR. RESULTS: Among 1,606 subjects enrolled,17 (8/476 seroconverters and 9/1,130 controls) developed VL (OR 3.1; 95% CI 1.1-8.3). High DAT and rK39 ELISA antibody titers as well as positive qPCR were strongly and significantly associated with progression from seroconversion to VL with odds ratios of 19.1, 30.3 and 20.9 respectively. Most VL cases arose early (median 5 months) during follow-up. CONCLUSION: We confirmed the strong association between high DAT and/or rK39 titers and progression to disease among asymptomatic subjects and identified qPCR as an additional predictor. Low predictive values do not warrant prophylactic treatment but as most progressed to VL early during follow-up, careful oberservation of these subjects for at least 6 months is indicated.

Visceral Leishmaniasis in the Muzaffapur Demographic Surveillance Site: A Spatiotemporal Analysis.

In the Indian subcontinent, visceral leishmaniasis (VL) has a strongly clustered distribution. The "index case approach" is promoted both for active case finding and indoor residual spraying (IRS). Uncertainty exists about the optimal radius. Buffer zones of 50-75 m around incident cases have been suggested for active case finding, for IRS the recommendation is to cover a radius of 500 m. Our aim was to establish optimal target areas both for IRS and for (re)active case finding. We plotted incident VL cases on a map per 6-month period (January-June or July-December) and drew buffers of 0 (same household), 50, 75, 100, 200, 300, 400, and 500 m around these cases. We then recorded total population and numbers of VL cases diagnosed over the next 6-month period in each of these buffers and beyond. We calculated incidence rate ratios (IRRs) using the population at more than 500 m from any case as reference category. There was a very strong degree of spatial clustering of VL with IRRs ranging from 45.2 (23.8-85.6) for those living in the same households to 14.6 (10.1-21.2) for those living within 75 m of a case diagnosed, during the previous period. Up to 500 m the IRR was still five times higher than that of the reference category. Our findings corroborate the rationale of screening not just household contacts but also those living within a perimeter of 50-75 m from an index case. For IRS, covering a perimeter of 500 m, appears to be a rational choice.

Visceral leishmaniasis: Spatiotemporal heterogeneity and drivers underlying the hotspots in Muzaffarpur, Bihar, India.

BACKGROUND: Despite the overall decrease in visceral leishmaniasis (VL) incidence on the Indian subcontinent, there remain spatiotemporal clusters or 'hotspots' of new cases. The characteristics of these hotspots, underlying transmission dynamics, and their importance for shaping control strategies are not yet fully understood and are investigated in this study for a VL endemic area of ~100,000 inhabitants in Bihar, India between 2007-2015. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: VL incidence (cases/10,000/year) dropped from 12.3 in 2007 to 0.9 in 2015, which is just below the World Health Organizations' threshold for elimination as a public health problem. Clustering of VL was assessed between subvillages (hamlets), using multiple geospatial and (spatio)temporal autocorrelation and hotspot analyses. One to three hotspots were identified each year, often persisting for 1-5 successive years with a modal radius of ~500m. The relative risk of having VL was 5-86 times higher for inhabitants of hotspots, compared to those living outside hotspots. Hotspots harbour significantly more households from the two lowest asset quintiles (as proxy for socio-economic status). Overall, children and young adelescents (5-14 years) have the highest risk for VL, but within hotspots and at the start of outbreaks, older age groups (35+ years) show a comparable high risk. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This study demonstrates significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity in VL incidence at subdistrict level. The association between poverty and hotspots confirms that VL is a disease of 'the poorest of the poor' and age patterns suggest a potential role of waning immunity as underlying driver of hotspots. The recommended insecticide spraying radius of 500m around detected VL cases corresponds to the modal hotspot radius found in this study. Additional data on immunity and asymptomatic infection, and the development of spatiotemporally explicit transmission models that simulate hotspot dynamics and predict the impact of interventions at the smaller geographical scale will be crucial tools in sustaining elimination.

Exposure to Phlebotomus argentipes (Diptera, Psychodidae, Phlebotominae) sand flies in rural areas of Bihar, India: the role of housing conditions.

BACKGROUND: Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL) is a vector-borne infectious disease, caused by the protozoan Leishmania donovani, which is transmitted by phlebotomine sand flies. In an earlier study in Bihar, India, we found an association between incidence of VL and housing conditions. In the current study we investigated the influence of housing structure and conditions in and around the house on the indoor abundance of Phlebotomus argentipes, the vector of VL in this area. METHODS: In each of 50 study villages in Muzaffarpur district, we randomly selected 10 houses. Light traps were installed in each house for one night during three annual peaks of sand fly density over two successive years. Sand flies captured were morphologically identified and segregated by species, sex and feeding status. Data on housing conditions and socio-economic status were also collected. We fitted a linear mixed-effects regression model with log-transformed P. argentipes counts as outcome variable and village as random effect. RESULTS: P. argentipes was found in all but four of the 500 households. There was considerable variability between the years and the seasons. On bivariate analysis, housing structure, dampness of the floor, keeping animals inside, presence of animal dung around the house, and socio-economic status were all significantly associated with sand fly density. Highest sand fly densities were observed in thatched houses. In the multivariate model only the housing structure and socio-economic status remained significant. CONCLUSIONS: Better housing conditions are associated with lower sand fly densities, independent of other socio-economic conditions. However, in this area in Bihar even in the better-built houses sand flies are present.

Health & Demographic Surveillance System profile: the Muzaffarpur-TMRC Health and Demographic Surveillance System.

The Muzaffarpur-TMRC Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS), established in 2007, was developed as an enlargement of the scope of a research collaboration on the project Visceral Leishmaniasis in Bihar, which had been ongoing since 2005. The HDSS is located in a visceral leishmaniasis (VL)-endemic area in the Muzaffarpur district of Bihar state in India. It is the only HDSS conducting research on VL, which is a vector-borne infectious disease transmitted by female phlebotomine sandflies and is fatal if left untreated. Currently the HDSS serves a population of over 105,000 in 66 villages. The HDSS collects data on vital events including pregnancies, births, deaths, migration and marriages, as well as other socio-economic indicators, at regular intervals. Incident VL cases are identified. The HDSS team is experienced in conducting both qualitative and quantitative studies, sample collection and rapid diagnostic tests in the field. In each village, volunteers connect the HDSS team with the community members. The Muzaffarpur-TMRC HDSS provides opportunities for studies on VL and other neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) and their interaction with demographic events such as migration. Queries related to research collaborations and data sharing can be sent to Dr Shyam Sundar at [drshyamsundar@hotmail.com].

Strong association between serological status and probability of progression to clinical visceral leishmaniasis in prospective cohort studies in India and Nepal.

INTRODUCTION: Asymptomatic persons infected with the parasites causing visceral leishmaniasis (VL) usually outnumber clinically apparent cases by a ratio of 4-10 to 1. We assessed the risk of progression from infection to disease as a function of DAT and rK39 serological titers. METHODS: We used available data on four cohorts from villages in India and Nepal that are highly endemic for Leishmania donovani. In each cohort two serosurveys had been conducted. Based on results of initial surveys, subjects were classified as seronegative, moderately seropositive or strongly seropositive using both DAT and rK39. Based on the combination of first and second survey results we identified seroconvertors for both markers. Seroconvertors were subdivided in high and low titer convertors. Subjects were followed up for at least one year following the second survey. Incident VL cases were recorded and verified. RESULTS: We assessed a total of 32,529 enrolled subjects, for a total follow-up time of 72,169 person years. Altogether 235 incident VL cases were documented. The probability of progression to disease was strongly associated with initial serostatus and with seroconversion; this was particularly the case for those with high titers and most prominently among seroconvertors. For high titer DAT convertors the hazard ratio reached as high as 97.4 when compared to non-convertors. The strengths of the associations varied between cohorts and between markers but similar trends were observed between the four cohorts and the two markers. DISCUSSION: There is a strongly increased risk of progressing to disease among DAT and/or rK39 seropositives with high titers. The options for prophylactic treatment for this group merit further investigation, as it could be of clinical benefit if it prevents progression to disease. Prophylactic treatment might also have a public health benefit if it can be corroborated that these asymptomatically infected individuals are infectious for sand flies.

Latent infection with Leishmania donovani in highly endemic villages in Bihar, India.

INTRODUCTION: Asymptomatic persons infected with the parasites causing visceral leishmaniasis (VL) usually outnumber clinically apparent cases by a ratio of 4-10 to 1. We describe patterns of markers of Leishmania donovani infection and clinical VL in relation to age in Bihar, India. METHODS: We selected eleven villages highly endemic for Leishmania donovani. During a 1-year interval we conducted two house to house surveys during which we collected blood samples on filter paper from all consenting individuals aged 2 years and above. Samples were tested for anti-leishmania serology by Direct Agglutination Test (DAT) and rK39 ELISA. Data collected during the surveys included information on episodes of clinical VL among study participants. RESULTS: We enrolled 13,163 persons; 6.2% were reactive to DAT and 5.9% to rK39. Agreement between the tests was weak (kappa = 0.30). Among those who were negative on both tests at baseline, 3.6% had converted to sero-positive on either of the two tests one year later. Proportions of sero-positives and sero-converters increased steadily with age. Clinical VL occurred mainly among children and young adults (median age 19 years). DISCUSSION: Although infection with L. donovani is assumed to be permanent, serological markers revert to negative. Most VL cases occur at younger ages, yet we observed a steady increase with age in the frequency of sero-positivity and sero-conversion. Our findings can be explained by a boosting effect upon repeated exposure to the parasite or by intermittent release of parasites in infected subjects from safe target cells. A certain proportion of sero-negative subjects could have been infected but below the threshold of antibody abundance for our serologic testing.

Visceral leishmaniasis clinical management in endemic districts of India, Nepal, and bangladesh.

Background. National VL Elimination Programs in India, Nepal and Bangladesh face challenges as home-based Miltefosine treatment is introduced. Objectives. To study constraints of VL management in endemic districts within context of national elimination programs before and after intervention. Methods. Ninety-two and 41 newly diagnosed VL patients were interviewed for clinical and provider experience in 2009 before and in 2010 after intervention (district training and improved supply of diagnostics and drugs). Providers were assessed for adherence to treatment guidelines. Facilities and doctor-patient consultations were observed to assess quality of care. Results. Miltefosine use increased from 33% to 59% except in Nepal where amphotericin was better available. Incorrect dosage and treatment interruptions were rare. Advice on potential side effects was uncommon but improved significantly in 2010. Physicians did not rule out pregnancy prior to starting Miltefosine. Fever measurement or spleen palpation was infrequently done in Bangladesh but improved after intervention (from 23% to 47%). Physician awareness of renal or liver toxicity as Miltefosine side effects was lower in Bangladesh. Bio-chemical monitoring was uncommon. Patient satisfaction with services remained low for ease of access or time provider spent with patient. Health facilities were better stocked with rK39 kits and Miltefosine in 2010.

Visceral leishmaniasis in Muzaffarpur district, Bihar, India from 1990 to 2008.

BACKGROUND: Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL) is a vector-borne disease transmitted by Phlebotomus argentipes. To understand the VL seasonality, annual and monthly variations of VL incidence and its relationship to meteorological variables, the numbers of VL cases reported in Muzaffarpur district, Bihar, India from 1990 to 2008 were studied. METHODS: Annual VL incidence per 10,000 and the total number of annual VL cases reported at block Community Health Centres (CHC), Public Hospitals or Non-Governmental Organisations (NGO) and the number of VL cases per month from 2000 to 2008 as well as the monthly average of cases for 2000-08, 2000-04 and 2005-08 periods along with the monthly averages of temperature, rainfall and relative humidity were plotted. VL Standardised Incidence Ratios per block were computed for the periods of 1990-1993, 1994-1998, 1999-2004 and 2005-2008 and month wise from 2002 to 2008. A negative binomial regression model was used to evaluate the association between meteorological variables and the number of VL cases per month from 2000 to 2008. RESULTS: A total of 68,358 VL cases were reported in Muzaffarpur district from 1990 to 2008, ranging from 1,2481 in 1992 to 1,161 in 2001. The blocks with the highest number of cases shifted from East (1990-98) to West (1999-2008). Monthly averages of cases ranged from 149 to 309, highest peak in March-April and another one in July. Monthly VL incidence was associated positively to rainfall and negatively to relative humidity and the numbers of VL cases in the previous month. INTERPRETATION: The number of cases reported to the public health sector allowed the describing of the spatial distribution and temporal variations in the Muzaffarpur from 1990 to 2008. However, to assess the actual VL burden, as well as the efficacy of the control measures applied in the district, reporting from private practices and NGOs should be encouraged.