A Financial and Global Demand Analysis to Inform Decisions for Funding and Clinical Development of Group B Streptococcus Vaccines for Pregnant Women.

BACKGROUND: Despite group B Streptococcus (GBS) being a leading cause of maternal and infant morbidity and mortality, no vaccine is currently available. To inform vaccine developers, countries, and funders, we analyzed the key factors likely to influence the demand for a GBS vaccine and the long-term financial sustainability for a vaccine developer. METHODS: Using population-based forecasting, we estimated the demand for a GBS vaccine; using a discounted cash flow model we estimated the financial viability for a vaccine developer. RESULTS: Demand for this vaccine can be significant if countries adopt policy recommendations for use, in particular, the largest ones, most of which have a burden that justifies use of the vaccine, and if financing for the vaccine is made available either by countries or by funding mechanisms such as Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis suggests the potential for financial and commercial viability for a vaccine developer pursuing the commercialization of a GBS vaccine. Risks exists in relation to the clinical trial design and costs, the level of competition, countries' ability to pay, the administration schedule, and the availability of policies that encourage use of the vaccine. To reduce those risks and ensure equitable access to a GBS vaccine, the role of donors or financers can prove very important, as can a coordinated operational research agenda that aims at clarifying those areas of uncertainty.

Stakeholder Perceptions About Group B Streptococcus Disease and Potential for Maternal Vaccination in Low- and Middle-Income Countries.

BACKGROUND: To inform the World Health Organization's full value of vaccine assessment for group B Streptococcus (GBS) vaccines, a rapid literature appraisal was conducted to inform the operationalization of maternal GBS vaccination. We found limited published information on stakeholder perceptions of the public health importance of GBS disease and vaccination, and we therefore undertook a multicountry survey. METHODS: An online survey was conducted in late 2019 to collect information on stakeholders' awareness of GBS disease and the priority accorded to vaccination. The survey was distributed by email to 395 representatives of national pediatric, gynecology, and obstetrics associations, national immunization technical advisory groups (NITAGs), national regulatory agencies, academia, and United Nations organizations. RESULTS: Among 101 survey respondents from 66 countries, 36% were pediatricians, 25% obstetricians/gynecologists, 21% immunization specialists, and 18% other public health specialists. More than half (58%) of respondents reported being familiar with GBS disease as a public health problem; familiarity decreased by country income level. Knowledge of GBS disease was greatest in the Americas (68%) and Europe (66%) and lowest in Asia (13%-38%). Perception of GBS disease as a public health problem was highest among pediatricians (71%) and lowest among public health policy makers and NITAG members (30%) across country groupings. Approximately half of respondents (49%) considered the introduction of a GBS vaccine as a priority. CONCLUSIONS: The information obtained will inform the appropriate packaging and presentation of information to address stakeholder perceptions and promote evidence-based decision making on GBS vaccination.

Optimal human papillomavirus vaccination strategies in the context of vaccine supply constraints in 100 countries.

Background: Countries are recommended to immunise adolescent girls routinely with one or two doses of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines to eliminate cervical cancer as a public health problem. With most existing vaccine doses absorbed by countries (mostly high-income) with existing HPV vaccination programmes, limited supply has been left for new country introductions until 2022; many of those, low- and middle-income countries with higher mortality. Several vaccination strategies were considered by the Strategic Advisory Group of Experts on Immunization to allow more countries to introduce vaccination despite constrained supplies. Methods: We examined the impact of nine strategies for allocating limited vaccine doses to 100 pre-introduction countries from 2020 to 2030. Two algorithms were used to optimise the total number of cancer deaths that can be averted worldwide by a limited number of doses (knapsack and decreasing order of country-specific mortality rates), and an unoptimised algorithm (decreasing order of Human Development Index) were used. Findings: Routinely vaccinating 14-year-old girls with either one or two doses and switching to a routine 9-year-old programme when supply is no longer constrained could prevent the most cervical cancer deaths, regardless of allocation algorithm. The unoptimised allocation averts fewer deaths because it allocates first to higher-income countries, usually with lower cervical cancer mortality. Interpretation: To optimise the deaths averted through vaccination when supply is limited, it is important to prioritise high-burden countries and vaccinating older girls first. Funding: WHO, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The quest for more effective vaccine markets - Opportunities, challenges, and what has changed with the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.

The past two decades have seen important progress in access to timely, reliable, affordable, and quality-assured supplies of vaccines of global public health importance. The new vaccines developed are powerful tools to fight killers such as pneumonia, diarrhea, and cervical cancer. Global and regional financing and pooled procurement haveshortened the lag between access in high- andlower-income countries. The COVID-19 pandemic has shown that by addressing shortcomings and seizing opportunities, we can do even more. In response to COVID-19, vaccine development and access shifted from a sequential, risk-averse paradigm to a rapid approach with maximum compression of time to market while ensuring quality. Vast public investments and innovative technologies were key facilitators. The pandemic has shown that governments play a crucial role in investing in new vaccines and manufacturing capacity and sharing risks with industry. Despite impressive progress, equity in access remains elusive with important moral, economic, and health-related consequences. Global leaders are working on a new International Treaty for Pandemic Prevention, Preparedness, and Response. To apply the lessons of COVID-19, that treaty should include a new paradigm for access to vaccines in which governments agree to:This would ensure that COVID-19 catalyzes a shift toward greater access for all under Immunization Agenda 2030.

A review of potential use cases for measles-rubella, measles-mumps-rubella, and typhoid-conjugate vaccines presented on microarray patches.

As an innovative vaccine delivery technology, vaccine microarray patches could have a meaningful impact on routine immunization coverage in low- and middle-income countries, and vaccine deployment during epidemics and pandemics. This review of the potential use cases for a subset of vaccine microarray patches in various stages of clinical development, including measles-rubella, measles-mumps-rubella, and typhoid conjugate, highlights the breadth of their applicability to support immunization service delivery and their potential scope of utilization within national immunization programs. Definition and assessment of the use cases for this novel vaccine presentation provide important insights for vaccine developers and policymakers into the strengths of the public health and commercial value propositions, and the preparatory requirements for public health systems for the future rollout of vaccine microarray patches. An in-depth understanding of use cases for vaccine microarray patches serves as a foundational input to overcoming the remaining technical, regulatory, and financial challenges. Additional efforts will help to realize the potential of vaccine microarray patches as part of the global effort to improve the coverage and equity of national immunization programs.

An Application of an Initial Full Value of Vaccine Assessment Methodology to Measles-Rubella MAPs for Use in Low- and Middle-Income Countries.

Measles and rubella micro-array patches (MR-MAPs) are a promising innovation to address limitations of the current needle and syringe (N&S) presentation due to their single-dose presentation, ease of use, and improved thermostability. To direct and accelerate further research and interventions, an initial full value vaccine assessment (iFVVA) was initiated prior to MR-MAPs entering phase I trials to quantify their value and identify key data gaps and challenges. The iFVVA utilized a mixed-methods approach with rapid assessment of literature, stakeholder interviews and surveys, and quantitative data analyses to (i) assess global need for improved MR vaccines and how MR-MAPs could address MR problem statements; (ii) estimate costs and benefits of MR-MAPs; (iii) identify the best pathway from development to delivery; and (iv) identify outstanding areas of need where stakeholder intervention can be helpful. These analyses found that if MR-MAPs are broadly deployed, they can potentially reach an additional 80 million children compared to the N&S presentation between 2030-2040. MR-MAPs can avert up to 37 million measles cases, 400,000 measles deaths, and 26 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). MR-MAPs with the most optimal product characteristics of low price, controlled temperature chain (CTC) properties, and small cold chain volumes were shown to be cost saving for routine immunization (RI) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) compared to N&S. Uncertainties about price and future vaccine coverage impact the potential cost-effectiveness of introducing MR-MAPs in LMICs, indicating that it could be cost-effective in 16-81% of LMICs. Furthermore, this iFVVA highlighted the importance of upfront donor investment in manufacturing set-up and clinical studies and the critical influence of an appropriate price to ensure country and manufacturer financial sustainability. To ensure that MR-MAPs achieve the greatest public health benefit, MAP developers, vaccine manufacturers, donors, financiers, and policy- and decision-makers will need close collaboration and open communications.

Impact and cost-effectiveness of measles vaccination through microarray patches in 70 low-income and middle-income countries: mathematical modelling and early-stage economic evaluation.

BACKGROUND: Microarray patches (MAPs) are a promising technology being developed to reduce barriers to vaccine delivery based on needles and syringes (N&S). To address the evidence gap on the public health value of applying this potential technology to immunisation programmes, we evaluated the health impact on measles burden and cost-effectiveness of introducing measles-rubella MAPs (MR-MAPs) in 70 low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). METHODS: We used an age-structured dynamic model of measles transmission and vaccination to project measles cases, deaths and disability-adjusted life-years during 2030-2040. Compared with the baseline scenarios with continuing current N&S-based practice, we evaluated the introduction of MR-MAPs under different measles vaccine coverage projections and MR-MAP introduction strategies. Costs were calculated based on the ingredients approach, including direct cost of measles treatment, vaccine procurement and vaccine delivery. Model-based burden and cost estimates were derived for individual countries and country income groups. We compared the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of introducing MR-MAPs to health opportunity costs. RESULTS: MR-MAP introduction could prevent 27%-37% of measles burden between 2030 and 2040 in 70 LMICs, compared with the N&S-only immunisation strategy. The largest health impact could be achieved under lower coverage projection and accelerated introduction strategy, with 39 million measles cases averted. Measles treatment cost is a key driver of the net cost of introduction. In countries with a relatively higher income, introducing MR-MAPs could be a cost-saving intervention due to reduced treatment costs. Compared with country-specific health opportunity costs, introducing MR-MAPs would be cost-effective in 16%-81% of LMICs, depending on the MR-MAPs procurement prices and vaccine coverage projections. CONCLUSIONS: Introducing MR-MAPs in LMICs can be a cost-effective strategy to revitalise measles immunisation programmes with stagnant uptake and reach undervaccinated children. Sustainable introduction and uptake of MR-MAPs has the potential to improve vaccine equity within and between countries and accelerate progress towards measles elimination.

Vaccine value profile for leishmaniasis.

Leishmania infections are global, occurring in 98 countries and all World Health Organization (WHO) regions with 600 million to 1 billion people at risk of infection. Visceral leishmaniasis is associated with almost 20,000 reported deaths annually, with children under 5 years of age being at the greatest risk of mortality. Amongst WHO-recognised Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs), leishmaniasis is one of the most important in terms of mortality and morbidity. With an increasing global burden of disease and a growing threat from climate change, urbanisation and drug resistance, there remains an imperative to develop leishmaniasis vaccines. New tools to understand correlates of protection and to assess vaccine efficacy are being developed to ease the transition into larger scale efficacy trials or provide alternate routes to licensure. Early indications suggest a diverse portfolio of manufacturers exists in endemic countries with an appetite to develop leishmaniasis vaccines. This Vaccine Value Profile (VVP) provides a high-level, comprehensive assessment of the currently available data to inform the potential public health, economic, and societal value of leishmaniasis vaccines. The leishmaniasis VVP was developed by a working group of subject matter experts from academia, public health groups, policy organizations, and non-profit organizations. All contributors have extensive expertise on various elements of the leishmaniasis VVP and have collectively described the state of knowledge and identified the current gaps. The VVP was developed using only existing and publicly available information.

Exploring potential applications of measles and rubella microarray patches (MR-MAPs): use case identification.

Introduction: Innovative vaccine products will be critical in helping to address the existing implementation barriers that have prevented the achievement of the measles and rubella (MR) vaccine coverage targets. Overcoming those barriers will be necessary to achieve the "Immunization Agenda 2030" goals. Microarray patches (MAPs), an innovative needle-free delivery device currently in clinical development, can be a potential game changer in this respect and contribute to the equitable delivery of vaccines in low- and middle-income countries and pandemic preparedness and response. Developing in-depth knowledge of the most desired and impactful uses of MRMAPs can prove critical to identifying the critical attributes of the target product profile, informing policy and adoption decisions, and helping to evaluate the potential public health and economic value of this technology. The first step in this process is the definition of the potential use cases for MR-MAPs, i.e., where and how this product is most likely to be used within the immunization programme. Methods: By applying a design-based user-centric approach, we implemented a three-step process, including a desk review, a survey, and interviews, to define the most relevant use cases for MR MAPS. Results: Six use cases have been identified as relevant across all different countries and immunization programme designs and validated by experts. Discussion: The identified use cases have already informed the demand estimate for MR-MAPs and provided the foundation for developing an initial full vaccine value assessment. We believe that, in the future, they will be highly valuable in ensuring that the roll-out of this promising innovation is designed in a way that maximizes the impact, particularly in populations and countries that are most in need.

The Global Demand and Supply Balance of the Human Papillomavirus Vaccine: Implications for the Global Strategy for the Elimination of Cervical Cancer.

As of November 2023, 140 World Health Organization (WHO) member states had introduced human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination in their routine immunization schedules. Despite a continuously increasing demand from countries across all income groups, supply constraints, COVID-19 pandemic disruptions, and other factors have slowed the pace of introduction, particularly in low-resource settings. Using a population-based forecasting methodology and leveraging the WHO's yearly vaccine supply data collection, we updated global demand and supply projections for the HPV vaccine for the period of 2022-2031. The analysis aimed at clarifying the magnitude of the challenges to bringing in equitable access to HPV vaccines, which can hinder the achievement of the Global Strategy for the Elimination of Cervical Cancer. The results of this analysis show that the risk of HPV shortages has significantly decreased, and global supply is now, under normal circumstances, sufficient to meet global demand. In the long term, HPV supply will be more than sufficient to meet the Global Strategy's goal of 90% of girls fully vaccinated with the HPV vaccine by the age of 15 years. Nonetheless, paying attention to the formulation of policies and carefully managing demand and supply will be required to ensure the long-term sustainability of the HPV vaccine program.

Estimating the global demand curve for a leishmaniasis vaccine: A generalisable approach based on global burden of disease estimates.

BACKGROUND: A pressing need exists to develop vaccines for neglected diseases, including leishmaniasis. However, the development of new vaccines is dependent on their value to two key players-vaccine developers and manufacturers who need to have confidence in the global demand in order to commit to research and production; and governments (or other international funders) who need to signal demand based on the potential public health benefits of the vaccine in their local context, as well as its affordability. A detailed global epidemiological analysis is rarely available before a vaccine enters a market due to lack of resources as well as insufficient global data necessary for such an analysis. Our study seeks to bridge this information gap by providing a generalisable approach to estimating the commercial and public health value of a vaccine in development relying primarily on publicly available Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data. This simplified approach is easily replicable and can be used to guide discussions and investments into vaccines and other health technologies where evidence constraints exist. The approach is demonstrated through the estimation of the demand curve for a future leishmaniasis vaccine. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We project the ability to pay over the period 2030-2040 for a vaccine preventing cutaneous and visceral leishmaniasis (CL / VL), using an illustrative set of countries which account for most of the global disease burden. First, based on previous work on vaccine demand projections in these countries and CL / VL GBD-reported incidence rates, we project the potential long-term impact of the vaccine on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted as a result of reduced incidence. Then, we apply an economic framework to our estimates to determine vaccine affordability based on the abilities to pay of governments and global funders, leading to estimates of the demand and market size. Based on our estimates, the maximum ability-to-pay of a leishmaniasis vaccine (per course, including delivery costs), given the current estimates of incidence and population at risk, is higher than $5 for 25-30% of the countries considered, with the average value-based maximum price, weighted by quantity demanded, being $5.7-6 [$0.3 - $34.5], and total demand of over 560 million courses. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results demonstrate that both the quantity of vaccines estimated to be required by the countries considered as well as their ability-to-pay could make a vaccine for leishmaniasis commercially attractive to potential manufacturers. The methodology used can be equally applied to other technology developments targeting health in developing countries.

Improving access to human papillomavirus vaccines: A case study in the IA2030 core principle of partnership.

Partnerships are fundamental to progress in immunization, and this is especially true for human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination, which must be delivered in the context of a broader immunization, sexual and reproductive health, and cervical cancer prevention programs. Starting from the discovery and development of HPV vaccines, through to implementation and improvement of the program's resilience, partnerships have played a critical role. In May 2018, the Global Strategy to Accelerate the Elimination of Cervical Cancer set a target for 90 % of girls to be fully vaccinated with HPV vaccine by age 15 years. This will require effective partnership and multisectoral collaboration among current and future partners to ensure alignment of interests, efficient execution, and the establishment of mechanisms to resolve emerging challenges and pre-empt foreseeable risks. In ramping up this partnering approach, HPV can provide a template for other health and immunization programs.

Estimating the future global dose demand for measles-rubella microarray patches.

Background: Progress toward measles and rubella (MR) elimination has stagnated as countries are unable to reach the required 95% vaccine coverage. Microarray patches (MAPs) are anticipated to offer significant programmatic advantages to needle and syringe (N/S) presentation and increase MR vaccination coverage. A demand forecast analysis of the programmatic doses required (PDR) could accelerate MR-MAP development by informing the size and return of the investment required to manufacture MAPs. Methods: Unconstrained global MR-MAP demand for 2030-2040 was estimated for three scenarios, for groups of countries with similar characteristics (archetypes), and four types of uses of MR-MAPs (use cases). The base scenario 1 assumed that MR-MAPs would replace a share of MR doses delivered by N/S, and that MAPs can reach a proportion of previously unimmunised populations. Scenario 2 assumed that MR-MAPs would be piloted in selected countries in each region of the World Health Organization (WHO); and scenario 3 explored introduction of MR-MAPs earlier in countries with the lowest measles vaccine coverage and highest MR disease burden. We conducted sensitivity analyses to measure the impact of data uncertainty. Results: For the base scenario (1), the estimated global PDR for MR-MAPs was forecasted at 30 million doses in 2030 and increased to 220 million doses by 2040. Compared to scenario 1, scenario 2 resulted in an overall decrease in PDR of 18%, and scenario 3 resulted in a 21% increase in PDR between 2030 and 2040. Sensitivity analyses revealed that assumptions around the anticipated reach or coverage of MR-MAPs, particularly in the hard-to-reach and MOV populations, and the market penetration of MR-MAPs significantly impacted the estimated PDR. Conclusions: Significant demand is expected for MR-MAPs between 2030 and 2040, however, efforts are required to address remaining data quality, uncertainties and gaps that underpin the assumptions in this analysis.

COVID-19 impact on infant and adolescent vaccine supplies.

Vaccine production is quadrupling rapidly, creating supply chain challenges.

Human leishmaniasis vaccines: Use cases, target population and potential global demand.

The development of vaccines against one or all forms of human leishmaniasis remains hampered by a paucity of investment, at least in part resulting from the lack of well-evidenced and agreed estimates of vaccine demand. Starting from the definition of 4 main use cases (prevention of visceral leishmaniasis, prevention of cutaneous leishmaniasis, prevention of post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis and treatment of post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis), we have estimated the size of each target population, focusing on those endemic countries where incidence levels are sufficiently high to justify decisions to adopt a vaccine. We assumed a dual vaccine delivery strategy, including a wide age-range catch-up campaign before the start of routine immunisation. Vaccine characteristics and delivery parameters reflective of a target product profile and the likely duration of the clinical development effort were considered in forecasting the demand for each of the four indications. Over a period of 10 years, this demand is forecasted to range from 300-830 million doses for a vaccine preventing visceral leishmaniasis and 557-1400 million doses for a vaccine preventing cutaneous leishmaniasis under the different scenarios we simulated. In a scenario with an effective prophylactic visceral leishmaniasis vaccine, demand for use to prevent or treat post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis would be more limited (over the 10 years ~160,000 doses for prevention and ~7,000 doses for treatment). Demand would rise to exceed 330,000 doses, however, in the absence of an effective vaccine for visceral leishmaniasis. Because of the sizeable demand and potential for public health impact, a single-indication prophylactic vaccine for visceral or cutaneous leishmaniasis, and even more so a cross-protective prophylactic vaccine could attract the interest of commercial developers. Continuous refinement of these first-of-their kind estimates and confirmation of country willingness and ability to pay will be paramount to inform the decisions of policy makers and developers in relation to a leishmaniasis vaccine. Positive decisions can provide a much-needed contribution towards the achievement of global leishmaniasis control.

Overcoming roadblocks in the development of vaccines for leishmaniasis.

INTRODUCTION: The leishmaniases represent a group of parasitic diseases caused by infection with one of several species of Leishmania parasites. Disease presentation varies because of differences in parasite and host genetics and may be influenced by additional factors such as host nutritional status or co-infection. Studies in experimental models of Leishmania infection, vaccination of companion animals and human epidemiological data suggest that many forms of leishmaniasis could be prevented by vaccination, but no vaccines are currently available for human use. AREAS COVERED: We describe some of the existing roadblocks to the development and implementation of an effective leishmaniasis vaccine, based on a review of recent literature found on PubMed, BioRxiv and MedRxiv. In addition to discussing scientific unknowns that hinder vaccine candidate identification and selection, we explore gaps in knowledge regarding the commercial and public health value propositions underpinning vaccine development and provide a route map for future research and advocacy. EXPERT OPINION: Despite significant progress, leishmaniasis vaccine development remains hindered by significant gaps in understanding that span the vaccine development pipeline. Increased coordination and adoption of a more holistic view to vaccine development will be required to ensure more rapid progress in the years ahead.

Global Vaccine Action Plan lessons learned III: Monitoring and evaluation/accountability framework.

INTRODUCTION: The Monitoring & Evaluation/Accountability (M&E/A) framework of the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP) was used to report progress annually to the World Health Assembly (WHA). METHODS: Stakeholder feedback was obtained through five reviews consisting of surveys and semi-structured interviews conducted from 2017 to 2019. Participants consisted of individuals involved in the development and implementation of GVAP or its M&E/A process, national immunization managers, academics, representatives of non-governmental organizations, and civil society organizations. RESULTS: The feedback was mixed and contradictory for some components, though most participants reported that the M&E/A process was a highlight of GVAP and a step in the right direction. Several of the goals and targets were considered aspirational and unrealistic for many countries. There were mixed responses on whether it promoted accountability, especially at the country level. DISCUSSION: The mixed and contradictory views on the M&E/A processes and its impact suggested a failure of communication about its scope and intent. Though the process, especially the annual reporting to the WHA, kept immunization high on the global agenda, it failed to fully meet the expectations in promoting accountability. Engaging with countries to capture the local context in setting global goals and targets and promoting local M&E/A processes will be important to achieve accountability in the next decade.

The potential impact of human visceral leishmaniasis vaccines on population incidence.

Human visceral leishmaniasis (VL) vaccines are currently under development and there is a need to understand their potential impact on population wide VL incidence. We implement four characteristics from different human VL vaccine candidates into two published VL transmission model variants to estimate the potential impact of these vaccine characteristics on population-wide anthroponotic VL incidence on the Indian subcontinent (ISC). The vaccines that are simulated in this study 1) reduce the infectiousness of infected individuals towards sand flies, 2) reduce risk of developing symptoms after infection, 3) reduce the risk of developing post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis (PKDL), or 4) lead to the development of transient immunity. We also compare and combine a vaccine strategy with current interventions to identify their potential role in elimination of VL as a public health problem. We show that the first two simulated vaccine characteristics can greatly reduce VL incidence. For these vaccines, an approximate 60% vaccine efficacy would lead to achieving the ISC elimination target (<1 VL case per 10,000 population per year) within 10 years' time in a moderately endemic setting when vaccinating 100% of the population. Vaccinating VL cases to prevent the development of PKDL is a promising tool to sustain the low incidence elimination target after regular interventions are halted. Vaccines triggering the development of transient immunity protecting against infection lead to the biggest reduction in VL incidence, but booster doses are required to achieve perduring impact. Even though vaccines are not yet available for implementation, their development should be pursued as their potential impact on transmission can be substantial, both in decreasing incidence at the population level as well as in sustaining the ISC elimination target when other interventions are halted.

Global Vaccine Action Plan Lessons Learned II: Stakeholder Perspectives.

INTRODUCTION: The Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP), unanimously endorsed by the World Health Assembly in 2012, defined an ambitious strategy to improve immunization. At the end of the decade, significant progress has been made but four of the five GVAP goals are likely to be missed. This report describes a set of surveys and interviews relating to GVAP, conducted to inform the immunization strategy for the next decade. METHODS: Three surveys and two sets of semi-structured interviews were conducted from 2017 to 2019. Respondents consisted of immunization stakeholders at global, regional, and country levels, and included individuals who had been involved in the development and implementation of GVAP or its monitoring, evaluation and accountability (M&E/A) process; national immunization managers; academics; and personnel from non-governmental organizations and civil society organizations. RESULTS: The surveys and interviews gave consistent results. They highlighted the value of GVAP in increasing visibility for immunization and the benefits of the GVAP M&E/A framework. The main limitations of GVAP were identified as the limited ownership by countries and other stakeholders leading to incomplete implementation of the strategy and poor accountability for achieving GVAP targets. DISCUSSION: These results informed the review of GVAP and the development of its successor strategy, the Immunization Agenda 2030. In addition, these surveys and interviews identified two challenges in assessing the value of GVAP: the need to rely exclusively on stakeholder perspectives and difficulties in attributing benefits. These challenges are inherent in evaluating an over-arching strategy such as GVAP and should be factored into interpretation of the results.

Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccine: A global assessment of demand and supply balance.

Over the past decade, several countries across all regions, income groups and procurement methods have been unable to secure sufficient BCG vaccine supply. While the frequency of stock-outs has remained rather stable, duration increased in 2014-2015 due to manufacturing issues and attracted the attention of national, regional and global immunization stakeholders. This prompted an in-depth analysis of supply and demand dynamics aiming to characterize supply risks. This analysis is unique as it provides a global picture, where previous analyses have focused on a portion of the market procuring through UN entities. Through literature review, supplier interviews, appraisal of shortages, stock-outs and historical procurement data, and through demand forecasting, this analysis shows an important increase in global capacity in 2017: supply is sufficient to meet forecasted BCG vaccine demand and possibly buffer market shocks. Nevertheless, risks remain mainly due to supply concentration and limited investment in production process improvements, as well as inflexibility in demand. Identification of these market risks will allow implementation of risk-mitigating interventions in three areas: (1) enhancing information sharing between major global health actors, countries and suppliers, (2) identifying interests and incentives to expand product registration and investment in the BCG manufacturing process, and (3) working with countries for tighter vaccine management.