RESUMEN
The aim of this study is to investigate the 14-year risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and develop a risk score for T2DM in the Siberian cohort. A random population sample (males/females, 45-69 years old) was examined at baseline in 2003-2005 (Health, Alcohol, and Psychosocial Factors in Eastern Europe (HAPIEE) project, n = 9360, Novosibirsk) and re-examined in 2006-2008 and 2015-2017. After excluding those with baseline T2DM, the final analysis included 7739 participants. The risk of incident T2DM during a 14-year follow-up was analysed using Cox regression. In age-adjusted models, male and female hazard ratios (HR) of incident T2DM were 5.02 (95% CI 3.62; 6.96) and 5.13 (95% CI 3.56; 7.37) for BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2; 4.38 (3.37; 5.69) and 4.70 (0.27; 6.75) for abdominal obesity (AO); 3.31 (2.65; 4.14) and 3.61 (3.06; 4.27) for fasting hyperglycaemia (FHG); 2.34 (1.58; 3.49) and 3.27 (2.50; 4.26) for high triglyceride (TG); 2.25 (1.74; 2.91) and 2.82 (2.27; 3.49) for hypertension (HT); and 1.57 (1.14; 2.16) and 1.69 (1.38; 2.07) for family history of diabetes mellitus (DM). In addition, secondary education, low physical activity (PA), and history of cardiovascular disease (CVD) were also significantly associated with T2DM in females. A simple T2DM risk calculator was generated based on non-laboratory parameters. A scale with the best quality included waist circumference >95 cm, HT history, and family history of T2DM (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.71). The proposed 10-year risk score of T2DM represents a simple, non-invasive, and reliable tool for identifying individuals at a high risk of future T2DM.
RESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The aims of this study were: (i) to evaluate the prevalence of gallstones in a Western Siberian urban population; and (ii) to compare the results of ultrasonographic screening of the living population with hospital autopsy data. METHODS: A representative sample of 842 men and 870 women (aged 25-64 years) living in Novosibirsk, Western Siberia, was screened for the presence of gallstones by gallbladder ultrasonography. Participants were considered to have gallstone disease if they had already had cholecystectomy or if gallstones were revealed during the survey. Hospital autopsy data (n = 1124) were reviewed retrospectively for the 8-year period in the same region. RESULTS: The prevalence of gallstone disease was significantly higher in women than in men and increased with age. Age-adjusted prevalence rates of gallstone disease for the 25-64-year age group were 1.9% in men and 9.5% in women in a cross-sectional ultrasonographic study. Corresponding values in the autopsy series were 2.2% in men and 11.2% in women. CONCLUSIONS: The present report shows that the prevalence of gallstone disease in the female population is in the range of that reported from Western countries, whereas that in the male population is lower than that in other countries. The results of the ultrasonographic survey of the living population and of hospital autopsy data were comparable, with slightly higher gallstone detection rates in the autopsy study.