Legacy nutrients in the Baltic Sea drainage basin: How past practices affect eutrophication management.

We have constructed a nutrient fate model for the Baltic Sea that links anthropogenic nitrogen and phosphorus inputs to the catchment to the dynamics of waterborne loads to the Baltic Sea, covering the time-period from 1900 to present. During this period, nutrient inputs to the drainage basin approximately tripled to a peak in the 1980s, after which they declined. Our model accounts for temporary nutrient storage on land and in inland waters, forming active legacy pools that contribute to nutrient export to the Baltic Sea, and for nutrient removal by terrestrial and aquatic sinks. The model indicates that response times to changes in anthropogenic nutrient inputs to the drainage basin are approximately 4 years for riverine nitrogen and 6-18 years for riverine phosphorus loads. Mineral fertilizer use in agriculture dominates nutrient inputs to the drainage basin, whereas the composition of riverine loads also depends on the collection and treatment of domestic sewage. Removal by terrestrial and aquatic nutrient sinks was the dominant fate of both nitrogen and phosphorus in our model. The amount of nutrients currently stored in legacy pools is therefore much smaller than what the difference between cumulative nutrient inputs to the catchment and the export to the sea suggests. Nevertheless, mobilization from these storage pools is the primary contribution to current anthropogenic riverine nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea. For phosphorus, the legacy effects of past reductions in inputs to the catchment can entail a significant, yet unrealized contribution toward the load reductions stipulated by Baltic Sea management plans. Therefore, accounting for nutrient storage, time-lags, and legacy effects could notably reduce the need for additional future mitigation measures.

Restoration and repair of Earth's damaged ecosystems.

Given that few ecosystems on the Earth have been unaffected by humans, restoring them holds great promise for stemming the biodiversity crisis and ensuring ecosystem services are provided to humanity. Nonetheless, few studies have documented the recovery of ecosystems globally or the rates at which ecosystems recover. Even fewer have addressed the added benefit of actively restoring ecosystems versus allowing them to recover without human intervention following the cessation of a disturbance. Our meta-analysis of 400 studies worldwide that document recovery from large-scale disturbances, such as oil spills, agriculture and logging, suggests that though ecosystems are progressing towards recovery following disturbances, they rarely recover completely. This result reinforces conservation of intact ecosystems as a key strategy for protecting biodiversity. Recovery rates slowed down with time since the disturbance ended, suggesting that the final stages of recovery are the most challenging to achieve. Active restoration did not result in faster or more complete recovery than simply ending the disturbances ecosystems face. Our results on the added benefit of restoration must be interpreted cautiously, because few studies directly compared different restoration actions in the same location after the same disturbance. The lack of consistent value added of active restoration following disturbance suggests that passive recovery should be considered as a first option; if recovery is slow, then active restoration actions should be better tailored to overcome specific obstacles to recovery and achieve restoration goals. We call for a more strategic investment of limited restoration resources into innovative collaborative efforts between scientists, local communities and practitioners to develop restoration techniques that are ecologically, economically and socially viable.

Future riverine nitrogen export to coastal regions in the United States: prospects for improving water quality.

Nitrogen (N) fluxes generated by an increasing human population have the potential to increase coastal riverine N loading, with implications for areas already degraded by elevated nutrient loads. Here we examine contemporary (year 2005) and future (year 2030) loading of total dissolved N (TDN) in the continental United States using the Nutrient Export from WaterSheds model (NEWS2-TDN). Model-derived TDN estimates compared well with measured export of 29 catchments that represent 65% of land surface area for the continental United States (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency = 0.83). Future output is based on scenarios that reflect future population growth and "business as usual" (BAU) and "ambitious" (AMB) approaches to nutrient management. Model-derived TDN export was 2.1 Tg N yr in 2005 and 2.2 and 1.6 Tg N yr in 2030 for the BAU and AMB scenarios, respectively. Depending on year and scenario, agriculture supplies 44 to 48% of coastal TDN, atmospheric N deposition supplies 14 to 17%, human sewage supplies 13 to 18%, and background sources supply 21 to 29%. The AMB scenario suggests that reducing nutrient loads to coastal areas will require aggressive actions, including a 25% improvement in agricultural nutrient use efficiency, a 20% reduction in N runoff from croplands, a 30% reduction in ammonia emissions from agriculture, and a 40% reduction in nitrogen oxide emissions from vehicles. Together, these aggressive actions could reduce year 2030 TDN export by 24% from 2005 levels, even with a 20% larger population.

Losses of Ammonia and Nitrate from Agriculture and Their Effect on Nitrogen Recovery in the European Union and the United States between 1900 and 2050.

Historical trends and levels of nitrogen (N) budgets and emissions to air and water in the European Union and the United States are markedly different. Agro-environmental policy approaches also differ, with emphasis on voluntary or incentive-based schemes in the United States versus a more regulatory approach in the European Union. This paper explores the implications of these differences for attaining long-term policy targets for air and water quality. Nutrient surplus problems were more severe in the European Union than in the United States during the 1970s and 1980s. The EU Nitrates and National Emission Ceilings directives contributed to decreases in fertilizer use, N surplus, and ammonia (NH) emissions, whereas in the United States they stabilized, although NH emissions are still increasing. These differences were analyzed using statistical data for 1900-2005 and the global IMAGE model. IMAGE could reproduce NH emissions and soil N surpluses at different scales (European Union and United States, country and state) and N loads in the Rhine and Mississippi. The regulation-driven changes during the past 25 yr in the European Union have reduced public concerns and have brought agricultural N loads to the aquatic environment closer to US levels. Despite differences in agro-environmental policies and agricultural structure (more N-fixing soybean and more spatially separated feed and livestock production in the United States than in the European Union), current N use efficiency in US and EU crop production is similar. IMAGE projections for the IAASTD-baseline scenario indicate that N loading to the environment in 2050 will be similar to current levels. In the United States, environmental N loads will remain substantially smaller than in the European Union, whereas agricultural production in 2050 in the United States will increase by 30% relative to 2005, as compared with an increase of 8% in the European Union. However, in the United States, even rigorous mitigation with maximum recycling of manure N and a 25% reduction in fertilizer use will not achieve the policy target to halve the N export to the Gulf of Mexico.

Atmospheric nitrogen deposition is associated with elevated phosphorus limitation of lake zooplankton.

Here, we present data that for the first time suggests that the effects of atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition on nutrient limitation extend into the food web. We used a novel and sensitive assay for an enzyme that is over-expressed in animals growing under dietary phosphorus (P) deficiency (alkaline phosphatase activity, APA) to assess the nutritional status of major crustacean zooplankton taxa in lakes across a gradient of atmospheric N deposition in Norway. Lakes receiving high N deposition had suspended organic matter (seston) with significantly elevated carbon:P and N:P ratios, indicative of amplified phytoplankton P limitation. This P limitation appeared to be transferred up the food chain, as the cosmopolitan seston-feeding zooplankton taxa Daphnia and Holopedium had significantly increased APA. These results indicate that N deposition can impair the efficiency of trophic interactions by accentuating stoichiometric food quality constraints in lake food webs.

Atmospheric nitrogen deposition influences denitrification and nitrous oxide production in lakes.

Microbially mediated denitrification is an important process that may ameliorate the effects of nitrogen (N) loading by permanently removing excess N inputs. In this study, we measured the rate of denitrification and nitrous oxide (N2O) production during denitrification in sediments from 32 Norwegian lakes at the high and low ends of a gradient of atmospheric N deposition. Denitrification and N2O production rates averaged 41.7 and 1.1 micromol N x m(-2) x h(-1), respectively, for high-deposition lakes. There was no detectable denitrification or N2O production in low-deposition lakes. Epilimnetic nitrate concentration was strongly correlated with denitrification rate (r2 = 0.67). We also measured the denitrification rate in response to experimental additions of organic carbon, nitrate, and phosphorus. Experimental nitrate additions stimulated denitrification in sediments of all lakes, regardless of N deposition level. In fact, the rate of denitrification in nitrate-amended treatments was the same magnitude for lakes in both deposition areas. These findings suggest that lake sediments possess considerable capacity to remove nitrate and that this capacity has not been saturated under conditions of chronic N loading. Further, nitrous oxide was nearly 3% of the total gaseous product during denitrification in high-deposition lakes, a fraction that is comparable to polluted marine sediments. Our findings suggest that, while lakes play an important role in N removal in the landscape, they may be a source of N2O emissions, especially in areas subject to elevated N inputs.

Impacts of changing society and climate on nutrient loading to the Baltic Sea.

This paper studies the relative importance of societal drivers and changing climate on anthropogenic nutrient inputs to the Baltic Sea. Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways are extended at temporal and spatial scales relevant for the most contributing sectors. Extended socioeconomic and climate scenarios are then used as inputs for spatially and temporally detailed models for population and land use change, and their subsequent impact on nutrient loading is computed. According to the model simulations, several factors of varying influence may either increase or decrease total nutrient loads. In general, societal drivers outweigh the impacts of changing climate. Food demand is the most impactful driver, strongly affecting land use and nutrient loads from agricultural lands in the long run. In order to reach the good environmental status of the Baltic Sea, additional nutrient abatement efforts should focus on phosphorus rather than nitrogen. Agriculture is the most important sector to be addressed under the conditions of gradually increasing precipitation in the region and increasing global demand for food.

Reducing agricultural nutrient surpluses in a large catchment - Links to livestock density.

The separation between crop- and livestock production is an important driver of agricultural nutrient surpluses in many parts of the world. Nutrient surpluses can be symptomatic of poor resource use efficiency and contribute to environmental problems. Thus, it is important not only to identify where surpluses can be reduced, but also the potential policy tools that could facilitate reductions. Here, we explored linkages between livestock production and nutrient flows for the Baltic Sea catchment and discuss management practices and policies that influence the magnitude of nutrient surpluses. We found that the majority of nutrients cycled through the livestock sector and that large nitrogen and phosphorus surpluses often occurred in regions with high livestock density. Imports of mineral fertilizers and feed to the catchment increased overall surpluses, which in turn increased the risk of nutrient losses from agriculture to the aquatic environment. Many things can be done to reduce agricultural nutrient surpluses; an important example is using manure nutrients more efficiently in crop production, thereby reducing the need to import mineral fertilizers. Also, existing soil P reserves could be used to a greater extent, which further emphasizes the need to improve nutrient management practices. The countries around the Baltic Sea used different approaches to manage agricultural nutrient surpluses, and because eight of the coastal countries are members in the European Union (EU), common EU policies play an important role in management. We observed reductions in surpluses between 2000 and 2010 in some countries, which suggested the influence of different approaches to management and policy and that there are opportunities for further improvement. However, the separation between crop and livestock production in agriculture appears to be an underlying cause of nutrient surpluses; thus, further research is needed to understand how policy can address these structural issues and increase sustainability in food production.

Alternative futures of dissolved inorganic nitrogen export from the Mississippi River Basin: influence of crop management, atmospheric deposition, and population growth.

Nitrogen (N) export from the Mississippi River Basin contributes to seasonal hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM). We explored monthly dissolved inorganic N (DIN) export to the GOM for a historical year (2002) and two future scenarios (year 2022) by linking macroeonomic energy, agriculture market, air quality, and agriculture land management models to a DIN export model. Future scenarios considered policies aimed at encouraging bioenergy crop production and reducing atmospheric N-emissions, as well as the effect of population growth and the states' infrastructure plans on sewage fluxes. Model-derived DIN export decreased by about 9% (from 279 to 254 kg N km-2 year-1) between 2002 and 2022 due to a 28% increase in area planted with corn, 24% improvement in crop N-recovery efficiency (NRE, to 0.52), 22% reduction in atmospheric N deposition, and 23% increase in sewage inputs. Changes in atmospheric and sewage inputs had a relatively small effect on DIN export and the effect of bioenergy crop production depended on nutrient management practices. Without improved NRE, increased production of corn would have increased DIN export by about 14% (to 289 kg N km-2 year-1) between 2002 and 2022. Model results suggest that meeting future crop demand while reducing the areal extent of hypoxia could require aggressive actions, such improving basin-level crop NRE to 0.62 or upgrading N-removal capabilities in waste water treatment plants beyond current plans. Tile-drained cropland could contribute up to half of DIN export; thus, practices that reduce N losses from tile drains could also have substantial benefit.

Anthropogenic ecosystem disturbance and the recovery debt.

Ecosystem recovery from anthropogenic disturbances, either without human intervention or assisted by ecological restoration, is increasingly occurring worldwide. As ecosystems progress through recovery, it is important to estimate any resulting deficit in biodiversity and functions. Here we use data from 3,035 sampling plots worldwide, to quantify the interim reduction of biodiversity and functions occurring during the recovery process (that is, the 'recovery debt'). Compared with reference levels, recovering ecosystems run annual deficits of 46-51% for organism abundance, 27-33% for species diversity, 32-42% for carbon cycling and 31-41% for nitrogen cycling. Our results are consistent across biomes but not across degrading factors. Our results suggest that recovering and restored ecosystems have less abundance, diversity and cycling of carbon and nitrogen than 'undisturbed' ecosystems, and that even if complete recovery is reached, an interim recovery debt will accumulate. Under such circumstances, increasing the quantity of less-functional ecosystems through ecological restoration and offsetting are inadequate alternatives to ecosystem protection.