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1.
Cell ; 187(6): 1374-1386.e13, 2024 Mar 14.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38428425

RESUMEN

The World Health Organization declared mpox a public health emergency of international concern in July 2022. To investigate global mpox transmission and population-level changes associated with controlling spread, we built phylogeographic and phylodynamic models to analyze MPXV genomes from five global regions together with air traffic and epidemiological data. Our models reveal community transmission prior to detection, changes in case reporting throughout the epidemic, and a large degree of transmission heterogeneity. We find that viral introductions played a limited role in prolonging spread after initial dissemination, suggesting that travel bans would have had only a minor impact. We find that mpox transmission in North America began declining before more than 10% of high-risk individuals in the USA had vaccine-induced immunity. Our findings highlight the importance of broader routine specimen screening surveillance for emerging infectious diseases and of joint integration of genomic and epidemiological information for early outbreak control.


Asunto(s)
Enfermedades Transmisibles Emergentes , Epidemias , Mpox , Humanos , Brotes de Enfermedades , Mpox/epidemiología , Mpox/transmisión , Mpox/virología , Salud Pública , Monkeypox virus/fisiología
2.
Cell ; 184(20): 5179-5188.e8, 2021 09 30.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34499854

RESUMEN

We present evidence for multiple independent origins of recombinant SARS-CoV-2 viruses sampled from late 2020 and early 2021 in the United Kingdom. Their genomes carry single-nucleotide polymorphisms and deletions that are characteristic of the B.1.1.7 variant of concern but lack the full complement of lineage-defining mutations. Instead, the remainder of their genomes share contiguous genetic variation with non-B.1.1.7 viruses circulating in the same geographic area at the same time as the recombinants. In four instances, there was evidence for onward transmission of a recombinant-origin virus, including one transmission cluster of 45 sequenced cases over the course of 2 months. The inferred genomic locations of recombination breakpoints suggest that every community-transmitted recombinant virus inherited its spike region from a B.1.1.7 parental virus, consistent with a transmission advantage for B.1.1.7's set of mutations.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19/epidemiología , COVID-19/transmisión , Pandemias , Recombinación Genética , SARS-CoV-2/genética , Secuencia de Bases/genética , COVID-19/virología , Biología Computacional/métodos , Frecuencia de los Genes , Genoma Viral , Genotipo , Humanos , Mutación , Filogenia , Polimorfismo de Nucleótido Simple , Reino Unido/epidemiología , Secuenciación Completa del Genoma/métodos
3.
Cell ; 184(1): 64-75.e11, 2021 01 07.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33275900

RESUMEN

Global dispersal and increasing frequency of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein variant D614G are suggestive of a selective advantage but may also be due to a random founder effect. We investigate the hypothesis for positive selection of spike D614G in the United Kingdom using more than 25,000 whole genome SARS-CoV-2 sequences. Despite the availability of a large dataset, well represented by both spike 614 variants, not all approaches showed a conclusive signal of positive selection. Population genetic analysis indicates that 614G increases in frequency relative to 614D in a manner consistent with a selective advantage. We do not find any indication that patients infected with the spike 614G variant have higher COVID-19 mortality or clinical severity, but 614G is associated with higher viral load and younger age of patients. Significant differences in growth and size of 614G phylogenetic clusters indicate a need for continued study of this variant.


Asunto(s)
Sustitución de Aminoácidos , COVID-19/transmisión , COVID-19/virología , SARS-CoV-2/genética , SARS-CoV-2/patogenicidad , Glicoproteína de la Espiga del Coronavirus/genética , Ácido Aspártico/análisis , Ácido Aspártico/genética , COVID-19/epidemiología , Genoma Viral , Glicina/análisis , Glicina/genética , Humanos , Mutación , SARS-CoV-2/crecimiento & desarrollo , Reino Unido/epidemiología , Virulencia , Secuenciación Completa del Genoma
4.
Cell ; 181(5): 997-1003.e9, 2020 05 28.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32359424

RESUMEN

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is caused by SARS-CoV-2 infection and was first reported in central China in December 2019. Extensive molecular surveillance in Guangdong, China's most populous province, during early 2020 resulted in 1,388 reported RNA-positive cases from 1.6 million tests. In order to understand the molecular epidemiology and genetic diversity of SARS-CoV-2 in China, we generated 53 genomes from infected individuals in Guangdong using a combination of metagenomic sequencing and tiling amplicon approaches. Combined epidemiological and phylogenetic analyses indicate multiple independent introductions to Guangdong, although phylogenetic clustering is uncertain because of low virus genetic variation early in the pandemic. Our results illustrate how the timing, size, and duration of putative local transmission chains were constrained by national travel restrictions and by the province's large-scale intensive surveillance and intervention measures. Despite these successes, COVID-19 surveillance in Guangdong is still required, because the number of cases imported from other countries has increased.


Asunto(s)
Betacoronavirus/genética , Infecciones por Coronavirus/epidemiología , Neumonía Viral/epidemiología , Teorema de Bayes , COVID-19 , China/epidemiología , Infecciones por Coronavirus/virología , Monitoreo Epidemiológico , Humanos , Funciones de Verosimilitud , Pandemias , Neumonía Viral/virología , SARS-CoV-2 , Viaje
5.
Nature ; 610(7930): 154-160, 2022 10.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35952712

RESUMEN

The SARS-CoV-2 Delta (Pango lineage B.1.617.2) variant of concern spread globally, causing resurgences of COVID-19 worldwide1,2. The emergence of the Delta variant in the UK occurred on the background of a heterogeneous landscape of immunity and relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions. Here we analyse 52,992 SARS-CoV-2 genomes from England together with 93,649 genomes from the rest of the world to reconstruct the emergence of Delta and quantify its introduction to and regional dissemination across England in the context of changing travel and social restrictions. Using analysis of human movement, contact tracing and virus genomic data, we find that the geographic focus of the expansion of Delta shifted from India to a more global pattern in early May 2021. In England, Delta lineages were introduced more than 1,000 times and spread nationally as non-pharmaceutical interventions were relaxed. We find that hotel quarantine for travellers reduced onward transmission from importations; however, the transmission chains that later dominated the Delta wave in England were seeded before travel restrictions were introduced. Increasing inter-regional travel within England drove the nationwide dissemination of Delta, with some cities receiving more than 2,000 observable lineage introductions from elsewhere. Subsequently, increased levels of local population mixing-and not the number of importations-were associated with the faster relative spread of Delta. The invasion dynamics of Delta depended on spatial heterogeneity in contact patterns, and our findings will inform optimal spatial interventions to reduce the transmission of current and future variants of concern, such as Omicron (Pango lineage B.1.1.529).


Asunto(s)
COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , COVID-19/epidemiología , COVID-19/prevención & control , COVID-19/transmisión , COVID-19/virología , Ciudades/epidemiología , Trazado de Contacto , Inglaterra/epidemiología , Genoma Viral/genética , Humanos , Cuarentena/legislación & jurisprudencia , SARS-CoV-2/genética , SARS-CoV-2/crecimiento & desarrollo , SARS-CoV-2/aislamiento & purificación , Viaje/legislación & jurisprudencia
6.
Nature ; 593(7858): 266-269, 2021 05.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33767447

RESUMEN

The SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7, designated variant of concern (VOC) 202012/01 by Public Health England1, was first identified in the UK in late summer to early autumn 20202. Whole-genome SARS-CoV-2 sequence data collected from community-based diagnostic testing for COVID-19 show an extremely rapid expansion of the B.1.1.7 lineage during autumn 2020, suggesting that it has a selective advantage. Here we show that changes in VOC frequency inferred from genetic data correspond closely to changes inferred by S gene target failures (SGTF) in community-based diagnostic PCR testing. Analysis of trends in SGTF and non-SGTF case numbers in local areas across England shows that B.1.1.7 has higher transmissibility than non-VOC lineages, even if it has a different latent period or generation time. The SGTF data indicate a transient shift in the age composition of reported cases, with cases of B.1.1.7 including a larger share of under 20-year-olds than non-VOC cases. We estimated time-varying reproduction numbers for B.1.1.7 and co-circulating lineages using SGTF and genomic data. The best-supported models did not indicate a substantial difference in VOC transmissibility among different age groups, but all analyses agreed that B.1.1.7 has a substantial transmission advantage over other lineages, with a 50% to 100% higher reproduction number.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19/transmisión , COVID-19/virología , Filogenia , SARS-CoV-2/clasificación , SARS-CoV-2/patogenicidad , Adolescente , Adulto , Distribución por Edad , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Número Básico de Reproducción , COVID-19/diagnóstico , COVID-19/epidemiología , Niño , Preescolar , Inglaterra/epidemiología , Evolución Molecular , Genoma Viral/genética , Humanos , Lactante , Recién Nacido , Persona de Mediana Edad , SARS-CoV-2/genética , SARS-CoV-2/aislamiento & purificación , Glicoproteína de la Espiga del Coronavirus/análisis , Glicoproteína de la Espiga del Coronavirus/genética , Factores de Tiempo , Adulto Joven
7.
Nature ; 597(7877): 539-543, 2021 09.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34526718

RESUMEN

Seven years after the declaration of the first epidemic of Ebola virus disease in Guinea, the country faced a new outbreak-between 14 February and 19 June 2021-near the epicentre of the previous epidemic1,2. Here we use next-generation sequencing to generate complete or near-complete genomes of Zaire ebolavirus from samples obtained from 12 different patients. These genomes form a well-supported phylogenetic cluster with genomes from the previous outbreak, which indicates that the new outbreak was not the result of a new spillover event from an animal reservoir. The 2021 lineage shows considerably lower divergence than would be expected during sustained human-to-human transmission, which suggests a persistent infection with reduced replication or a period of latency. The resurgence of Zaire ebolavirus from humans five years after the end of the previous outbreak of Ebola virus disease reinforces the need for long-term medical and social care for patients who survive the disease, to reduce the risk of re-emergence and to prevent further stigmatization.


Asunto(s)
Brotes de Enfermedades , Ebolavirus/genética , Ebolavirus/aislamiento & purificación , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/epidemiología , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/virología , Modelos Biológicos , Animales , República Democrática del Congo/epidemiología , Brotes de Enfermedades/estadística & datos numéricos , Ebolavirus/clasificación , Femenino , Guinea/epidemiología , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/transmisión , Secuenciación de Nucleótidos de Alto Rendimiento , Humanos , Masculino , Infección Persistente/virología , Filogenia , Sobrevivientes , Factores de Tiempo , Zoonosis Virales/transmisión , Zoonosis Virales/virología
8.
Emerg Infect Dis ; 28(4): 751-758, 2022 04.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35203112

RESUMEN

Limited genomic sampling in many high-incidence countries has impeded studies of severe respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) genomic epidemiology. Consequently, critical questions remain about the generation and global distribution of virus genetic diversity. We investigated SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics in Gujarat, India, during the state's first epidemic wave to shed light on spread of the virus in one of the regions hardest hit by the pandemic. By integrating case data and 434 whole-genome sequences sampled across 20 districts, we reconstructed the epidemic dynamics and spatial spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Gujarat. Our findings indicate global and regional connectivity and population density were major drivers of the Gujarat outbreak. We detected >100 virus lineage introductions, most of which appear to be associated with international travel. Within Gujarat, virus dissemination occurred predominantly from densely populated regions to geographically proximate locations that had low population density, suggesting that urban centers contributed disproportionately to virus spread.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , COVID-19/epidemiología , Genoma Viral , Genómica , Humanos , India/epidemiología , Filogenia , SARS-CoV-2/genética
9.
J Virol ; 94(5)2020 02 14.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31801858

RESUMEN

Influenza B virus (IBV) undergoes seasonal antigenic drift more slowly than influenza A virus, but the reasons for this difference are unclear. While the evolutionary dynamics of influenza viruses play out globally, they are fundamentally driven by mutation, reassortment, drift, and selection at the level of individual hosts. These processes have recently been described for influenza A virus, but little is known about the evolutionary dynamics of IBV during individual infections and transmission events. Here, we define the within-host evolutionary dynamics of IBV by sequencing virus populations from naturally infected individuals enrolled in a prospective, community-based cohort over 8,176 person-seasons of observation. Through analysis of high depth-of-coverage sequencing data from samples from 91 individuals with influenza B, we find that IBV accumulates lower genetic diversity than previously observed for influenza A virus during acute infections. Consistent with studies of influenza A viruses, the within-host evolution of IBVs is characterized by purifying selection and the general absence of widespread positive selection of within-host variants. Analysis of shared genetic diversity across 15 sequence-validated transmission pairs suggests that IBV experiences a tight transmission bottleneck similar to that of influenza A virus. These patterns of local-scale evolution are consistent with the lower global evolutionary rate of IBV.IMPORTANCE The evolution of influenza virus is a significant public health problem and necessitates the annual evaluation of influenza vaccine formulation to keep pace with viral escape from herd immunity. Influenza B virus is a serious health concern for children, in particular, yet remains understudied compared to influenza A virus. Influenza B virus evolves more slowly than influenza A virus, but the factors underlying this are not completely understood. We studied how the within-host diversity of influenza B virus relates to its global evolution by sequencing viruses from a community-based cohort. We found that influenza B virus populations have lower within-host genetic diversity than influenza A virus and experience a tight genetic bottleneck during transmission. Our work provides insights into the varying dynamics of influenza viruses in human infection.


Asunto(s)
Evolución Molecular , Virus de la Influenza A/genética , Virus de la Influenza B/genética , Gripe Humana/virología , Variación Genética , Genoma Viral , Interacciones Huésped-Patógeno/genética , Interacciones Huésped-Patógeno/fisiología , Humanos , Vacunas contra la Influenza , Gripe Humana/transmisión , Estudios Prospectivos , Carga Viral
10.
PLoS Biol ; 16(6): e2006459, 2018 06.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29953453

RESUMEN

Mutation rates can evolve through genetic drift, indirect selection due to genetic hitchhiking, or direct selection on the physicochemical cost of high fidelity. However, for many systems, it has been difficult to disentangle the relative impact of these forces empirically. In RNA viruses, an observed correlation between mutation rate and virulence has led many to argue that their extremely high mutation rates are advantageous because they may allow for increased adaptability. This argument has profound implications because it suggests that pathogenesis in many viral infections depends on rare or de novo mutations. Here, we present data for an alternative model whereby RNA viruses evolve high mutation rates as a byproduct of selection for increased replicative speed. We find that a poliovirus antimutator, 3DG64S, has a significant replication defect and that wild-type (WT) and 3DG64S populations have similar adaptability in 2 distinct cellular environments. Experimental evolution of 3DG64S under selection for replicative speed led to reversion and compensation of the fidelity phenotype. Mice infected with 3DG64S exhibited delayed morbidity at doses well above the lethal level, consistent with attenuation by slower growth as opposed to reduced mutational supply. Furthermore, compensation of the 3DG64S growth defect restored virulence, while compensation of the fidelity phenotype did not. Our data are consistent with the kinetic proofreading model for biosynthetic reactions and suggest that speed is more important than accuracy. In contrast with what has been suggested for many RNA viruses, we find that within-host spread is associated with viral replicative speed and not standing genetic diversity.


Asunto(s)
Tasa de Mutación , Virus ARN/genética , Virus ARN/patogenicidad , Virulencia/genética , Células 3T3 , Sustitución de Aminoácidos , Animales , Evolución Molecular Dirigida , Femenino , Interacciones Microbiota-Huesped/genética , Cinética , Masculino , Ratones , Ratones Transgénicos , Modelos Genéticos , Mutagénesis Sitio-Dirigida , Polimorfismo de Nucleótido Simple , Virus ARN/fisiología , ARN Polimerasa Dependiente del ARN/genética , ARN Polimerasa Dependiente del ARN/metabolismo , Theilovirus/genética , Theilovirus/patogenicidad , Theilovirus/fisiología , Proteínas Virales/genética , Proteínas Virales/metabolismo , Replicación Viral/genética
11.
PLoS Pathog ; 13(1): e1006194, 2017 01.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28141862

RESUMEN

While influenza virus diversity and antigenic drift have been well characterized on a global scale, the factors that influence the virus' rapid evolution within and between human hosts are less clear. Given the modest effectiveness of seasonal vaccination, vaccine-induced antibody responses could serve as a potent selective pressure for novel influenza variants at the individual or community level. We used next generation sequencing of patient-derived viruses from a randomized, placebo-controlled trial of vaccine efficacy to characterize the diversity of influenza A virus and to define the impact of vaccine-induced immunity on within-host populations. Importantly, this study design allowed us to isolate the impact of vaccination while still studying natural infection. We used pre-season hemagglutination inhibition and neuraminidase inhibition titers to quantify vaccine-induced immunity directly and to assess its impact on intrahost populations. We identified 166 cases of H3N2 influenza over 3 seasons and 5119 person-years. We obtained whole genome sequence data for 119 samples and used a stringent and empirically validated analysis pipeline to identify intrahost single nucleotide variants at ≥1% frequency. Phylogenetic analysis of consensus hemagglutinin and neuraminidase sequences showed no stratification by pre-season HAI and NAI titer, respectively. In our study population, we found that the vast majority of intrahost single nucleotide variants were rare and that very few were found in more than one individual. Most samples had fewer than 15 single nucleotide variants across the entire genome, and the level of diversity did not significantly vary with day of sampling, vaccination status, or pre-season antibody titer. Contrary to what has been suggested in experimental systems, our data indicate that seasonal influenza vaccination has little impact on intrahost diversity in natural infection and that vaccine-induced immunity may be only a minor contributor to antigenic drift at local scales.


Asunto(s)
Genoma Viral/genética , Subtipo H3N2 del Virus de la Influenza A/genética , Vacunas contra la Influenza , Gripe Humana/virología , Vacunación , Proteínas Virales/genética , Variación Genética , Pruebas de Inhibición de Hemaglutinación , Hemaglutininas/genética , Secuenciación de Nucleótidos de Alto Rendimiento , Humanos , Subtipo H3N2 del Virus de la Influenza A/inmunología , Gripe Humana/prevención & control , Neuraminidasa/genética , Filogenia , Estaciones del Año , Análisis de Secuencia de ADN
12.
PLoS Pathog ; 12(8): e1005856, 2016 08.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27571422

RESUMEN

A virus' mutational robustness is described in terms of the strength and distribution of the mutational fitness effects, or MFE. The distribution of MFE is central to many questions in evolutionary theory and is a key parameter in models of molecular evolution. Here we define the mutational fitness effects in influenza A virus by generating 128 viruses, each with a single nucleotide mutation. In contrast to mutational scanning approaches, this strategy allowed us to unambiguously assign fitness values to individual mutations. The presence of each desired mutation and the absence of additional mutations were verified by next generation sequencing of each stock. A mutation was considered lethal only after we failed to rescue virus in three independent transfections. We measured the fitness of each viable mutant relative to the wild type by quantitative RT-PCR following direct competition on A549 cells. We found that 31.6% of the mutations in the genome-wide dataset were lethal and that the lethal fraction did not differ appreciably between the HA- and NA-encoding segments and the rest of the genome. Of the viable mutants, the fitness mean and standard deviation were 0.80 and 0.22 in the genome-wide dataset and best modeled as a beta distribution. The fitness impact of mutation was marginally lower in the segments coding for HA and NA (0.88 ± 0.16) than in the other 6 segments (0.78 ± 0.24), and their respective beta distributions had slightly different shape parameters. The results for influenza A virus are remarkably similar to our own analysis of CirSeq-derived fitness values from poliovirus and previously published data from other small, single stranded DNA and RNA viruses. These data suggest that genome size, and not nucleic acid type or mode of replication, is the main determinant of viral mutational fitness effects.


Asunto(s)
ADN Viral/genética , Aptitud Genética/genética , Virus de la Influenza A/genética , Células A549 , Evolución Molecular , Hemaglutininas/genética , Secuenciación de Nucleótidos de Alto Rendimiento , Humanos , Modelos Genéticos , Mutagénesis Sitio-Dirigida , Neuraminidasa/genética , Mutación Puntual , Reacción en Cadena en Tiempo Real de la Polimerasa , Transfección
13.
J Virol ; 90(15): 6884-95, 2016 08 01.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27194763

RESUMEN

UNLABELLED: With next-generation sequencing technologies, it is now feasible to efficiently sequence patient-derived virus populations at a depth of coverage sufficient to detect rare variants. However, each sequencing platform has characteristic error profiles, and sample collection, target amplification, and library preparation are additional processes whereby errors are introduced and propagated. Many studies account for these errors by using ad hoc quality thresholds and/or previously published statistical algorithms. Despite common usage, the majority of these approaches have not been validated under conditions that characterize many studies of intrahost diversity. Here, we use defined populations of influenza virus to mimic the diversity and titer typically found in patient-derived samples. We identified single-nucleotide variants using two commonly employed variant callers, DeepSNV and LoFreq. We found that the accuracy of these variant callers was lower than expected and exquisitely sensitive to the input titer. Small reductions in specificity had a significant impact on the number of minority variants identified and subsequent measures of diversity. We were able to increase the specificity of DeepSNV to >99.95% by applying an empirically validated set of quality thresholds. When applied to a set of influenza virus samples from a household-based cohort study, these changes resulted in a 10-fold reduction in measurements of viral diversity. We have made our sequence data and analysis code available so that others may improve on our work and use our data set to benchmark their own bioinformatics pipelines. Our work demonstrates that inadequate quality control and validation can lead to significant overestimation of intrahost diversity. IMPORTANCE: Advances in sequencing technology have made it feasible to sequence patient-derived viral samples at a level sufficient for detection of rare mutations. These high-throughput, cost-effective methods are revolutionizing the study of within-host viral diversity. However, the techniques are error prone, and the methods commonly used to control for these errors have not been validated under the conditions that characterize patient-derived samples. Here, we show that these conditions affect measurements of viral diversity. We found that the accuracy of previously benchmarked analysis pipelines was greatly reduced under patient-derived conditions. By carefully validating our sequencing analysis using known control samples, we were able to identify biases in our method and to improve our accuracy to acceptable levels. Application of our modified pipeline to a set of influenza virus samples from a cohort study provided a realistic picture of intrahost diversity and suggested the need for rigorous quality control in such studies.


Asunto(s)
Variación Genética/genética , Genoma Viral , Secuenciación de Nucleótidos de Alto Rendimiento/normas , Virus de la Influenza A/clasificación , Virus de la Influenza A/genética , Gripe Humana/virología , Algoritmos , Humanos , ARN Viral/genética
14.
PLoS Comput Biol ; 12(4): e1004804, 2016 Apr.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27065304

RESUMEN

Identifying biomarkers for tuberculosis (TB) is an ongoing challenge in developing immunological correlates of infection outcome and protection. Biomarker discovery is also necessary for aiding design and testing of new treatments and vaccines. To effectively predict biomarkers for infection progression in any disease, including TB, large amounts of experimental data are required to reach statistical power and make accurate predictions. We took a two-pronged approach using both experimental and computational modeling to address this problem. We first collected 200 blood samples over a 2- year period from 28 non-human primates (NHP) infected with a low dose of Mycobacterium tuberculosis. We identified T cells and the cytokines that they were producing (single and multiple) from each sample along with monkey status and infection progression data. Machine learning techniques were used to interrogate the experimental NHP datasets without identifying any potential TB biomarker. In parallel, we used our extensive novel NHP datasets to build and calibrate a multi-organ computational model that combines what is occurring at the site of infection (e.g., lung) at a single granuloma scale with blood level readouts that can be tracked in monkeys and humans. We then generated a large in silico repository of in silico granulomas coupled to lymph node and blood dynamics and developed an in silico tool to scale granuloma level results to a full host scale to identify what best predicts Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) infection outcomes. The analysis of in silico blood measures identifies Mtb-specific frequencies of effector T cell phenotypes at various time points post infection as promising indicators of infection outcome. We emphasize that pairing wetlab and computational approaches holds great promise to accelerate TB biomarker discovery.


Asunto(s)
Mycobacterium tuberculosis/inmunología , Linfocitos T/inmunología , Linfocitos T/microbiología , Algoritmos , Animales , Biomarcadores/sangre , Linfocitos T CD4-Positivos/inmunología , Linfocitos T CD4-Positivos/microbiología , Linfocitos T CD8-positivos/inmunología , Linfocitos T CD8-positivos/microbiología , Biología Computacional , Simulación por Computador , Citocinas/biosíntesis , Bases de Datos Factuales , Humanos , Pulmón/inmunología , Pulmón/microbiología , Macaca fascicularis , Modelos Inmunológicos , Tuberculosis Pulmonar/sangre , Tuberculosis Pulmonar/inmunología , Tuberculosis Pulmonar/microbiología
15.
Open Forum Infect Dis ; 11(6): ofae243, 2024 Jun.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38854397

RESUMEN

Background: Viral SARS-CoV-2 rebound (viral RNA rebound) is challenging to characterize in large cohorts due to the logistics of collecting frequent and regular diagnostic test results. Pharmacy-based testing data provide an opportunity to study the phenomenon in a large population, also enabling subgroup analyses. The current real-world evidence approach complements approaches focused on smaller, prospective study designs. Methods: We linked real-time reverse transcription quantitative polymerase chain reaction test data from national pharmacy-based testing to health care claims data via tokenization to calculate the cumulative incidence of viral RNA rebound within 28 days following positive test results in nirmatrelvir/ritonavir (NMV-r)-treated and untreated individuals during the Omicron era (December 2021-November 2022) and prior to the Omicron era (October 2020-November 2021). Results: Among 30 646 patients, the rate of viral RNA rebound was 3.5% (95% CI, 2.0%-5.7%) in NMV-r-treated infections as compared with 1.5% (95% CI, 1.3%-1.7%) in untreated infections during the Omicron era and 1.9% (95% CI, 1.7%-2.1%) prior to the Omicron era. Viral RNA rebound in patients who were vaccinated (n = 8151), high risk (n = 4411), or older (≥65 years, n = 4411) occurred at comparable rates to the overall cohort (range, 1.1%-4.8%). Viral rebounds to high RNA levels in NMV-r-treated infections occurred in 8% of viral rebounds as compared with 5% to 11% in untreated infections. Rates of hospitalization were comparable between patients with NMV-r-treated infections with viral RNA rebound (0%) and untreated patients with viral RNA rebound (0%-1.2%). Conclusions: Our findings suggest viral RNA rebound is rare (< 5%), with rates that were consistent with those from the EPIC-HR trial (Evaluation of Protease Inhibition for COVID-19 in High-Risk Patients). Most occurrences of viral RNA rebound were associated with low viral RNA levels, and viral RNA rebound progression to severe disease was not observed.

16.
medRxiv ; 2023 Dec 07.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37577709

RESUMEN

The World Health Organization declared mpox a public health emergency of international concern in July 2022. To investigate global mpox transmission and population-level changes associated with controlling spread, we built phylogeographic and phylodynamic models to analyze MPXV genomes from five global regions together with air traffic and epidemiological data. Our models reveal community transmission prior to detection, changes in case-reporting throughout the epidemic, and a large degree of transmission heterogeneity. We find that viral introductions played a limited role in prolonging spread after initial dissemination, suggesting that travel bans would have had only a minor impact. We find that mpox transmission in North America began declining before more than 10% of high-risk individuals in the USA had vaccine-induced immunity. Our findings highlight the importance of broader routine specimen screening surveillance for emerging infectious diseases and of joint integration of genomic and epidemiological information for early outbreak control.

17.
Science ; 381(6655): 336-343, 2023 07 21.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37471538

RESUMEN

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants of concern (VOCs) now arise in the context of heterogeneous human connectivity and population immunity. Through a large-scale phylodynamic analysis of 115,622 Omicron BA.1 genomes, we identified >6,000 introductions of the antigenically distinct VOC into England and analyzed their local transmission and dispersal history. We find that six of the eight largest English Omicron lineages were already transmitting when Omicron was first reported in southern Africa (22 November 2021). Multiple datasets show that importation of Omicron continued despite subsequent restrictions on travel from southern Africa as a result of export from well-connected secondary locations. Initiation and dispersal of Omicron transmission lineages in England was a two-stage process that can be explained by models of the country's human geography and hierarchical travel network. Our results enable a comparison of the processes that drive the invasion of Omicron and other VOCs across multiple spatial scales.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Humanos , África Austral , COVID-19/transmisión , COVID-19/virología , Genómica , SARS-CoV-2/clasificación , SARS-CoV-2/genética , SARS-CoV-2/patogenicidad , Filogenia
19.
PLOS Glob Public Health ; 3(2): e0001455, 2023.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36963002

RESUMEN

The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the importance of global genomic surveillance to monitor the emergence and spread of SARS-CoV-2 variants and inform public health decision-making. Until December 2020 there was minimal capacity for viral genomic surveillance in most Caribbean countries. To overcome this constraint, the COVID-19: Infectious disease Molecular epidemiology for PAthogen Control & Tracking (COVID-19 IMPACT) project was implemented to establish rapid SARS-CoV-2 whole genome nanopore sequencing at The University of the West Indies (UWI) in Trinidad and Tobago (T&T) and provide needed SARS-CoV-2 sequencing services for T&T and other Caribbean Public Health Agency Member States (CMS). Using the Oxford Nanopore Technologies MinION sequencing platform and ARTIC network sequencing protocols and bioinformatics pipeline, a total of 3610 SARS-CoV-2 positive RNA samples, received from 17 CMS, were sequenced in-situ during the period December 5th 2020 to December 31st 2021. Ninety-one Pango lineages, including those of five variants of concern (VOC), were identified. Genetic analysis revealed at least 260 introductions to the CMS from other global regions. For each of the 17 CMS, the percentage of reported COVID-19 cases sequenced by the COVID-19 IMPACT laboratory ranged from 0·02% to 3·80% (median = 1·12%). Sequences submitted to GISAID by our study represented 73·3% of all SARS-CoV-2 sequences from the 17 CMS available on the database up to December 31st 2021. Increased staffing, process and infrastructural improvement over the course of the project helped reduce turnaround times for reporting to originating institutions and sequence uploads to GISAID. Insights from our genomic surveillance network in the Caribbean region directly influenced non-pharmaceutical countermeasures in the CMS countries. However, limited availability of associated surveillance and clinical data made it challenging to contextualise the observed SARS-CoV-2 diversity and evolution, highlighting the need for development of infrastructure for collecting and integrating genomic sequencing data and sample-associated metadata.

20.
Med ; 3(12): 848-859.e4, 2022 Dec 09.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36332633

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Between November 2021 and February 2022, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Delta and Omicron variants co-circulated in the United States, allowing for co-infections and possible recombination events. METHODS: We sequenced 29,719 positive samples during this period and analyzed the presence and fraction of reads supporting mutations specific to either the Delta or Omicron variant. FINDINGS: We identified 18 co-infections, one of which displayed evidence of a low Delta-Omicron recombinant viral population. We also identified two independent cases of infection by a Delta-Omicron recombinant virus, where 100% of the viral RNA came from one clonal recombinant. In the three cases, the 5' end of the viral genome was from the Delta genome and the 3' end from Omicron, including the majority of the spike protein gene, though the breakpoints were different. CONCLUSIONS: Delta-Omicron recombinant viruses were rare, and there is currently no evidence that Delta-Omicron recombinant viruses are more transmissible between hosts compared with the circulating Omicron lineages. FUNDING: This research was supported by the NIH RADx initiative and by the Centers for Disease Control Contract 75D30121C12730 (Helix).


Asunto(s)
COVID-19 , Coinfección , Orthopoxvirus , Humanos , SARS-CoV-2/genética , Genoma Viral/genética
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