Should they stay, or should they go? Relative future risk of bovine tuberculosis for interferon-gamma test-positive cattle left on farms.

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB), caused by Mycobacterium bovis, is a serious infectious disease that remains an ongoing concern for cattle farming worldwide. Tuberculin skin-tests are often used to identify infected animals (reactors) during test-and-cull programs, however, due to relatively poor sensitivity, additional tests can be implemented in parallel. For example, in Northern Ireland interferon-gamma (IFN-g) testing is used in high-risk herds. However, skin-test negative animals which are positive to the IFN-g test are not required by law to be slaughtered - therefore the final choice for these animals' fate is left with the owner. During this study we investigated whether these animals represented a greater risk of becoming a skin reactor, relative to IFN-g test negative animals from the same herds. Our study population included 1107 IFN-g positive animals from 239 herds. A Cox-proportional hazard model indicated that animals which tested IFN-g positive were 2.31 times (95% CI: 1.92-2.79; P < 0.001) more likely to become a reactor compared with IFN-g negative animals. Animals from dairy herds, and from herds in the south-east, were of higher risk than animals from beef herds and other regions, respectively. Our findings suggest that IFN-g positive animals represent a higher risk of failing a skin-test in the future, indicating the value of IFN-g testing for identifying early-stage infected animals. These IFN-g positive animals are not under any disease restriction, and may move freely (trade), which may put recipient herds at increased risk. Our findings provide important evidence for stakeholders engaged in bTB eradication programs.

Liver fluke (Fasciola hepatica) infection in cattle in Northern Ireland: a large-scale epidemiological investigation utilising surveillance data.

BACKGROUND: Liver fluke (Fasciola hepatica) is a widespread parasite of ruminants which can have significant economic impact on cattle production. Fluke infection status at the animal-level is captured during meat inspection of all animals processed for human consumption within Northern Ireland. These national datasets have not been analysed to assess their utility in uncovering patterns in fluke infection at animal- and herd-levels in Northern Ireland. METHODS: We utilised a dataset of 1.2 million animal records from ~18,000 herds across 3 years (2011-2013) to assess animal- and herd-level apparent prevalence and risk-factors associated with fluke infection. Animal-level apparent prevalence was measured as the proportion of animals exhibiting evidence of fluke infection at slaughter; between herd-level infection prevalence was measured by binary categorisation of herds (infected or not). "Within herd" infection prevalence was measured using the proportion of animals within a herd that showed evidence of fluke infection per year (ranging from 0-100%). "Within herd" infection prevalence at the herd level was investigated using multivariable modelling. RESULTS: At the animal level, the proportion of animals slaughtered that exhibited evidence of infection was 21-25% amongst years. Across herds, the proportion of herds with at least one infected animal, varied between 61 and 65%. However, there was a significant sampling effect at the herd-level; all herds where at least 105 animals slaughtered over the study period exhibited evidence of fluke infection (100%). There was significant variation in terms of within-herd infection prevalence. Risk factors included herd type, long-term weather variation, geographic location (region) and the abattoir. CONCLUSIONS: Liver fluke apparent prevalence was high at the herd-level across years. However, there was lower prevalence at the animal level, which may indicate significant variation in the exposure to fluke infection within herds. The proportion infected within-herds varied significantly in time and space, and by abattoir, herd-type and some weather variables. These data are a useful source of information on a widespread endemic disease, despite known limitations in terms of test performance (low sensitivity). As well as informing on the distribution and severity of liver fluke infection, these analyses will be used to investigate the effect of co-infection on risk for bovine tuberculosis.

Hui and Walter's latent-class model extended to estimate diagnostic test properties from surveillance data: a latent model for latent data.

Diagnostic test sensitivity and specificity are probabilistic estimates with far reaching implications for disease control, management and genetic studies. In the absence of 'gold standard' tests, traditional Bayesian latent class models may be used to assess diagnostic test accuracies through the comparison of two or more tests performed on the same groups of individuals. The aim of this study was to extend such models to estimate diagnostic test parameters and true cohort-specific prevalence, using disease surveillance data. The traditional Hui-Walter latent class methodology was extended to allow for features seen in such data, including (i) unrecorded data (i.e. data for a second test available only on a subset of the sampled population) and (ii) cohort-specific sensitivities and specificities. The model was applied with and without the modelling of conditional dependence between tests. The utility of the extended model was demonstrated through application to bovine tuberculosis surveillance data from Northern and the Republic of Ireland. Simulation coupled with re-sampling techniques, demonstrated that the extended model has good predictive power to estimate the diagnostic parameters and true herd-level prevalence from surveillance data. Our methodology can aid in the interpretation of disease surveillance data, and the results can potentially refine disease control strategies.

Genomic prediction for tuberculosis resistance in dairy cattle.

BACKGROUND: The increasing prevalence of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in the UK and the limitations of the currently available diagnostic and control methods require the development of complementary approaches to assist in the sustainable control of the disease. One potential approach is the identification of animals that are genetically more resistant to bTB, to enable breeding of animals with enhanced resistance. This paper focuses on prediction of resistance to bTB. We explore estimation of direct genomic estimated breeding values (DGVs) for bTB resistance in UK dairy cattle, using dense SNP chip data, and test these genomic predictions for situations when disease phenotypes are not available on selection candidates. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We estimated DGVs using genomic best linear unbiased prediction methodology, and assessed their predictive accuracies with a cross validation procedure and receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves. Furthermore, these results were compared with theoretical expectations for prediction accuracy and area-under-the-ROC-curve (AUC). The dataset comprised 1151 Holstein-Friesian cows (bTB cases or controls). All individuals (592 cases and 559 controls) were genotyped for 727,252 loci (Illumina Bead Chip). The estimated observed heritability of bTB resistance was 0.23±0.06 (0.34 on the liability scale) and five-fold cross validation, replicated six times, provided a prediction accuracy of 0.33 (95% C.I.: 0.26, 0.40). ROC curves, and the resulting AUC, gave a probability of 0.58, averaged across six replicates, of correctly classifying cows as diseased or as healthy based on SNP chip genotype alone using these data. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: These results provide a first step in the investigation of the potential feasibility of genomic selection for bTB resistance using SNP data. Specifically, they demonstrate that genomic selection is possible, even in populations with no pedigree data and on animals lacking bTB phenotypes. However, a larger training population will be required to improve prediction accuracies.

Field-isolated genotypes of Mycobacterium bovis vary in virulence and influence case pathology but do not affect outbreak size.

Strains of many infectious agents differ in fundamental epidemiological parameters including transmissibility, virulence and pathology. We investigated whether genotypes of Mycobacterium bovis (the causative agent of bovine tuberculosis, bTB) differ significantly in transmissibility and virulence, combining data from a nine-year survey of the genetic structure of the M. bovis population in Northern Ireland with detailed records of the cattle population during the same period. We used the size of herd breakdowns as a proxy measure of transmissibility and the proportion of skin test positive animals (reactors) that were visibly lesioned as a measure of virulence. Average breakdown size increased with herd size and varied depending on the manner of detection (routine herd testing or tracing of infectious contacts) but we found no significant variation among M. bovis genotypes in breakdown size once these factors had been accounted for. However breakdowns due to some genotypes had a greater proportion of lesioned reactors than others, indicating that there may be variation in virulence among genotypes. These findings indicate that the current bTB control programme may be detecting infected herds sufficiently quickly so that differences in virulence are not manifested in terms of outbreak sizes. We also investigated whether pathology of infected cattle varied according to M. bovis genotype, analysing the distribution of lesions recorded at post mortem inspection. We concentrated on the proportion of cases lesioned in the lower respiratory tract, which can indicate the relative importance of the respiratory and alimentary routes of infection. The distribution of lesions varied among genotypes and with cattle age and there were also subtle differences among breeds. Age and breed differences may be related to differences in susceptibility and husbandry, but reasons for variation in lesion distribution among genotypes require further investigation.

Detectability of bovine TB using the tuberculin skin test does not vary significantly according to pathogen genotype within Northern Ireland.

Strains of many infectious diseases differ in parameters that influence epidemic spread, for example virulence, transmissibility, detectability and host specificity. Knowledge of inter-strain variation can be exploited to improve management and decrease disease incidence. Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is increasingly prevalent among farmed cattle in the UK, exerting a heavy economic burden on the farming industry and government. We aimed to determine whether strains of Mycobacterium bovis (the causative agent of bTB) identified and classified using genetic markers (spoligotyping and multi-locus VNTR analysis) varied in response to the tuberculin skin test; this being the primary method of bTB detection used in the UK. Inter-strain variation in detectability of M. bovis could have important implications for disease control. The skin test is based on a differential delayed type hypersensitivity (DTH) response to intradermal injections of purified protein derivative (PPD) from M. bovis (PPD-B) and Mycobacterium avium (PPD-A). We searched for an association between skin test response (PPD-B skin rise minus PPD-A skin rise) and M. bovis genotype at the disclosing test in culture-confirmed cases using a field dataset consisting of 21,000 isolates belonging to 63 genotypes of M. bovis from cattle in Northern Ireland. We found no substantial variation among genotypes (estimated responses clustered tightly around the mean) controlling for animal sex, breed and test effects. We also estimated the ratio of skin test detected to undetected cases (i.e. cases only detected at abattoir). The skin test detection ratio varied among abattoirs with some detecting a greater proportion of cases than others but this variation was unrelated to the community composition of genotypes within each abattoir catchment. These two lines of evidence indicate that M. bovis genotypes in Northern Ireland have similar detectability using the skin test.

Herd-level risk factors for bovine tuberculosis: a literature review.

Bovine tuberculosis (TB), caused by Mycobacterium bovis, is one of the most challenging endemic diseases currently facing government, the veterinary profession, and the farming industry in the United Kingdom and Ireland and in several other countries. The disease has a notoriously complex epidemiology; the scientific evidence supports both cattle-cattle and wildlife-cattle transmission routes. To produce more effective ways of reducing such transmission, it is important to understand those risk factors which influence the presence or absence of bovine TB in cattle herds. Here we review the literature on herd-level risk factor studies. Whilst risk factors operate at different scales and may vary across regions, epidemiological studies have identified a number of risk factors associated with bovine TB herd breakdowns, including the purchase of cattle, the occurrence of bovine TB in contiguous herds, and/or the surrounding area as well as herd size. Other factors identified in some studies include farm and herd management practices, such as, the spreading of slurry, the use of certain housing types, farms having multiple premises, and the use of silage clamps. In general, the most consistently identified risk factors are biologically plausible and consistent with known transmission routes involving cattle-cattle and wildlife-cattle pathways.

Multiple genetic typing of Salmonella enterica serotype typhimurium isolates of different phage types (DT104, U302, DT204b, and DT49) from animals and humans in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland.

Salmonella enterica serotype Typhimurium is a common cause of salmonellosis among humans and animals in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland. Phage types DT104 and U302 were the most prevalent types in both livestock and humans in 2001. In addition, Salmonella serotype Typhimurium DT204b was responsible for a recent international outbreak involving England. A total of 119 isolates from humans (n = 28) and animals or their environment (n = 91), belonging to DT104 (n = 66), U302 (n = 33), DT204b (n = 12), and DT49 (n = 8), were fingerprinted by a combination of well-established genetic methods (pulsed-field gel electrophoresis [PFGE], PstI/SphI [PS] ribotyping, and plasmid profiling). The different techniques identified different degrees of polymorphism (from greatest to least, plasmid profiling [40 types], PS ribotyping [34 types], and PFGE [23 types]). It seems clear that a prevalent genomic clone, as well as a variety of less frequent clones, is present for each of the phage types. In most cases, the prevalent clones appeared within isolates from several animal species and from several geographical locations. We did not find clear evidence of a higher degree of diversity for any of the animal species included, or of any link between isolates from particular animal species and humans. The data presented show the inaccuracy of drawing epidemiological conclusions based on a single fingerprinting method. Strains that share one of the markers do not necessarily belong to the same clone, and a multiple typing approach is required to enable enough discrimination to track strains for epidemiological investigations.