Projected effects of climate change on Pseudo-nitzschia bloom dynamics in the Gulf of Maine.

Worldwide, warming ocean temperatures have contributed to extreme harmful algal bloom events and shifts in phytoplankton species composition. In 2016 in the Gulf of Maine (GOM), an unprecedented Pseudo-nitzschia bloom led to the first domoic-acid induced shellfishery closures in the region. Potential links between climate change, warming temperatures, and the GOM Pseudo-nitzschia assemblage, however, remain unexplored. In this study, a global climate change projection previously downscaled to 7-km resolution for the Northwest Atlantic was further refined with a 1-3-km resolution simulation of the GOM to investigate the effects of climate change on HAB dynamics. A 25-year time slice of projected conditions at the end of the 21st century (2073-2097) was compared to a 25-year hindcast of contemporary ocean conditions (1994-2018) and analyzed for changes to GOM inflows, transport, and Pseudo-nitzschia australis growth potential. On average, climate change is predicted to lead to increased temperatures, decreased salinity, and increased stratification in the GOM, with the largest changes occurring in the late summer. Inflows from the Scotian Shelf are projected to increase, and alongshore transport in the Eastern Maine Coastal Current is projected to intensify. Increasing ocean temperatures will likely make P. australis growth conditions less favorable in the southern and western GOM but improve P. australis growth conditions in the eastern GOM, including a later growing season in the fall, and a longer growing season in the spring. Combined, these changes suggest that P. australis blooms in the eastern GOM could intensify in the 21st century, and that the overall Pseudo-nitzschia species assemblage might shift to warmer-adapted species such as P. plurisecta or other Pseudo-nitzschia species that may be introduced.

Investigating Pseudo-nitzschia australis introduction to the Gulf of Maine with observations and models.

In 2016, an unprecedented Pseudo-nitzschia australis bloom in the Gulf of Maine led to the first shellfishery closures due to domoic acid in the region's history. In this paper, potential introduction routes of P. australis are explored through observations, a hydrodynamic model, and a Lagrangian particle tracking model. Based on particle tracking experiments, the most likely source of P. australis to the Gulf of Maine was the Scotian Shelf. However, in 2016, connectivity between the Scotian Shelf and the bloom region was not significantly different from the other years between 2012 and 2019, nor were temperature conditions more favorable for P. australis growth. Observations indicated changes on the Scotian Shelf in 2016 preceded the introduction of P. australis: increased bottom salinity and decreased surface salinity. The increased bottom salinity on the shelf may be linked to anomalously saline water observed near the coast of Maine in 2016 via transport through Northeast Channel. The changes in upstream water mass properties may be related to the introduction of P. australis, and could be the result of either increased influence of the Labrador Current or increased outflow from the Gulf of St. Lawrence. The ultimate source of P. australis remains unknown, although the species has previously been observed in the eastern North Atlantic, and connectivity across the ocean is possible via a subpolar route. Continued and increased monitoring is warranted to track interannual Pseudo-nitzschia persistence in the Gulf of Maine, and sampling on the Scotian Shelf should be conducted to map upstream P. australis populations.

Zooplankton Community Grazing Impact on a Toxic Bloom of Alexandrium fundyense in the Nauset Marsh System, Cape Cod, Massachusetts, USA.

Embayments and salt ponds along the coast of Massachusetts can host localized blooms of the toxic dinoflagellate Alexandrium fundyense. One such system, exhibiting a long history of toxicity and annual closures of shellfish beds, is the Nauset Marsh System (NMS) on Cape Cod. In order measure net growth rates of natural A. fundyense populations in the NMS during spring 2012, incubation experiments were conducted on seawater samples from two salt ponds within the NMS (Salt Pond and Mill Pond). Seawater samples containing natural populations of grazers and A. fundyense were incubated at ambient temperatures. Concentrations of A. fundyense after incubations were compared to initial abundances to determine net increases from population growth, or decreases presumed to be primarily due to grazing losses. Abundances of both microzooplankton (ciliates, rotifers, copepod nauplii and heterotrophic dinoflagellates) and mesozooplankton (copepodites and adult copepods, marine cladocerans, and meroplankton) grazers were also determined. This study documented net growth rates that were highly variable throughout the bloom, calculated from weekly bloom cell counts from the start of sampling to bloom peak in both ponds (Mill Pond range = 0.12 - 0.46 d-1; Salt Pond range = -0.02 - 0.44 d-1). Microzooplankton grazers that were observed with ingested A. fundyense cells included polychaete larvae, rotifers, tintinnids, and heterotrophic dinoflagellates of the genera Polykrikos and Gymnodinium. Significant A. fundyense net growth was observed in two incubation experiments, and only a single experiment exhibited significant population losses. For the majority of experiments, due to high variability in data, net changes in A. fundyense abundance were not significant after the 24-hr incubations. However, experimental net growth rates through bloom peak were not statistically distinguishable from estimated long-term average net growth rates of natural populations in each pond (Mill Pond = 0.27 d-1 and Salt Pond = 0.20 d-1), which led to peak bloom concentrations on the order of 106 cells l-1 in both ponds. Experimental net growth rates from the incubations underestimated the observed natural net growth rates at several time intervals prior to bloom peak, which may indicate that natural populations experienced additional sources of vegetative cells or periods of reduced losses that the 24-hr incubation experiments did not capture, or that the experimental procedure introduced containment artifacts.

Seasonal and Interannual Variability in Gulf of Maine Hydrodynamics: 2002-2011.

In situ observations including long-term moored meteorological and oceanographic measurements and multi-year gulf-wide ship survey data are used to quantify interannual variability of surface wind, river runoff, and hydrographic conditions in the Gulf of Maine during summers 2002-2011. The cumulative upwelling index shows that upwelling (downwelling)-favorable wind conditions were most persistent in 2010 (2005) over the 10-year study period. River discharge was highest in 2005; peak runoff occurred in early April in 2010 as opposed to late April to middle May in other years. Moored time series show that coastal water temperature was 0.5-2 °C warmer than average in summer 2010, and about 2 °C colder than average in 2004. Coastal salinity in April 2010 was the lowest in the 10-year study period. Both moored Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) current measurements and dynamic height/geostrophic velocity calculations based on gulf-wide ship survey data show May-June 2010 had one of the weakest alongshore transports in the western Gulf of Maine during the 10-year study period, likely associated with intrusions of warm slope water and fresher-than-usual Scotian Shelf water. Comparisons of coastal currents to the Paralytic Shellfish Poisoning (PSP) closure maps resulting from A. fundyense blooms suggest a linkage between alongshore transport and the downstream extent of toxicity.

Alexandrium fundyense cyst viability and germling survival in light vs. dark at a constant low temperature.

Both observations and models suggest that large-scale coastal blooms of Alexandrium fundyense in the Gulf of Maine are seeded by deep-bottom cyst accumulation zones ("seed beds") where cysts germinate from the sediment surface or the overlying near-bottom nepheloid layers at water depths exceeding 100 m. The germling cells and their vegetative progeny are assumed to be subject to mortality while in complete darkness, as they swim to illuminated surface waters. To test the validity of this assumption we conducted laboratory investigations of cyst viability and the survival of the germling cells and their vegetative progeny during prolonged exposure to darkness at a temperature of 6 °C, simulating the conditions in deep Gulf of Maine waters. We isolated cysts from bottom sediments collected in the Gulf of Maine under low red light and incubated them in 96-well tissue culture-plates in culture medium under a 10:14 h light:dark cycle and under complete darkness. Cyst viability was high, with excystment frequency reaching 90% in the illuminated treatment after 30 days and in the dark treatment after 50 days. Average germination rates were 0.062 and 0.038 d-1 for light and dark treatments, respectively. The dark treatment showed an approximately 2-week time lag in maximum germination rates compared to the light treatment. Survival of germlings was considerably lower in the dark treatment. In the light treatments, 47% of germinated cysts produced germlings that were able to survive for 7 days and produce vegetative progeny, i.e., there were live cells in the well along with an empty cyst at least once during the experiment. In the dark treatments 12% of the cysts produced germlings that were able to survive for the same length of time. When dark treatments are scaled to take into account non-darkness related mortality, approximately 28% of the cysts produced germlings that were able to survive for at least 7 days. Even though cysts are able to germinate in darkness, the lack of illumination considerably reduces survival rate of germling cells. In addition to viability of cysts in surface sediments and the near-bottom nepheloid layer, survivability of germling cells and their vegetative progeny at aphotic depths is an important consideration in assessing the quantitative role of deep-coastal cyst seed beds in bloom formation.

Categorizing the severity of paralytic shellfish poisoning outbreaks in the Gulf of Maine for forecasting and management.

Development of forecasting systems for harmful algal blooms (HABs) has been a long-standing research and management goal. Significant progress has been made in the Gulf of Maine, where seasonal bloom forecasts are now being issued annually using Alexandrium fundyense cyst abundance maps and a population dynamics model developed for that organism. Thus far, these forecasts have used terms such as "significant", "moderately large" or "moderate" to convey the extent of forecasted paralytic shellfish poisoning (PSP) outbreaks. In this study, historical shellfish harvesting closure data along the coast of the Gulf of Maine were used to derive a series of bloom severity levels that are analogous to those used to define major storms like hurricanes or tornados. Thirty-four years of PSP-related shellfish closure data for Maine, Massachusetts and New Hampshire were collected and mapped to depict the extent of coastline closure in each year. Due to fractal considerations, different methods were explored for measuring length of coastline closed. Ultimately, a simple procedure was developed using arbitrary straight-line segments to represent specific sections of the coastline. This method was consistently applied to each year's PSP toxicity closure map to calculate the total length of coastline closed. Maps were then clustered together statistically to yield distinct groups of years with similar characteristics. A series of categories or levels was defined ("Level 1: Limited", "Level 2: Moderate", and "Level 3: Extensive") each with an associated range of expected coastline closed, which can now be used instead of vague descriptors in future forecasts. This will provide scientifically consistent and simply defined information to the public as well as resource managers who make decisions on the basis of the forecasts.

Near-bottom circulation and dispersion of sediment containing Alexandrium fundyense cysts in the Gulf of Maine during 2010-2011.

The life cycle of Alexandrium fundyense in the Gulf of Maine includes a dormant cyst stage that spends the winter predominantly in the bottom sediment. Wave-current bottom stress caused by storms and tides induces resuspension of cyst-containing sediment during winter and spring. Resuspended sediment could be transported by water flow to different locations in the Gulf and the redistribution of sediment containing A. fundyense cysts could alter the spatial and temporal manifestation of its spring bloom. The present study evaluates model near-bottom flow during storms, when sediment resuspension and redistribution are most likely to occur, between October and May when A. fundyense cells are predominantly in cyst form. Simulated water column sediment (mud) concentrations from representative locations of the Gulf are used to initialize particle tracking simulations for the period October 2010-May 2011. Particles are tracked in full three-dimensional model solutions including a sinking velocity characteristic of cyst and aggregated mud settling (0.1 mm s-1). Although most of the material was redeposited near the source areas, small percentages of total resuspended sediment from some locations in the western (~4%) and eastern (2%) Maine shelf and the Bay of Fundy (1%) traveled distances longer than 100 km before resettling. The redistribution changed seasonally and was sensitive to the prescribed sinking rate. Estimates of the amount of cysts redistributed with the sediment are small compared to the inventory of cysts in the upper few centimeters of sediment.

PSP toxin levels and plankton community composition and abundance in size-fractionated vertical profiles during spring/summer blooms of the toxic dinoflagellate Alexandrium fundyense in the Gulf of Maine and on Georges Bank, 2007, 2008, and 2010: 2. Plankton community composition and abundance.

As part of the Gulf of Maine Toxicity (GOMTOX) project, we determined Alexandrium fundyense abundance, paralytic shellfish poisoning (PSP) toxin levels in various plankton size fractions, and the community composition of potential grazers of A. fundyense in plankton size fractions during blooms of this toxic dinoflagellate in the coastal Gulf of Maine and on Georges Bank in spring and summer of 2007, 2008, and 2010. PSP toxins and A. fundyense cells were found throughout the sampled water column (down to 50 m) in the 20-64 µm size fractions. While PSP toxins were widespread throughout all size classes of the zooplankton grazing community, the majority of the toxin was measured in the 20-64 µm size fraction. A. fundyense cellular toxin content estimated from field samples was significantly higher in the coastal Gulf of Maine than on Georges Bank. Most samples containing PSP toxins in the present study had diverse assemblages of grazers. However, some samples clearly suggested PSP toxin accumulation in several different grazer taxa including tintinnids, heterotrophic dinoflagellates of the genus Protoperidinium, barnacle nauplii, the harpacticoid copepod Microsetella norvegica, the calanoid copepods Calanus finmarchicus and Pseudocalanus spp., the marine cladoceran Evadne nordmanni, and hydroids of the genus Clytia. Thus, a diverse assemblage of zooplankton grazers accumulated PSP toxins through food-web interactions. This raises the question of whether PSP toxins pose a potential human health risk not only from nearshore bivalve shellfish, but also potentially from fish and other upper-level consumers in zooplankton-based pelagic food webs.

PSP toxin levels and plankton community composition and abundance in size-fractionated vertical profiles during spring/summer blooms of the toxic dinoflagellate Alexandrium fundyense in the Gulf of Maine and on Georges Bank, 2007, 2008, and 2010: 1. Toxin levels.

As part of the NOAA ECOHAB funded Gulf of Maine Toxicity (GOMTOX) project, we determined Alexandrium fundyense abundance, paralytic shellfish poisoning (PSP) toxin composition, and concentration in quantitatively-sampled size-fractionated (20-64, 64-100, 100-200, 200-500, and > 500 µm) particulate water samples, and the community composition of potential grazers of A. fundyense in these size fractions, at multiple depths (typically 1, 10, 20 m, and near-bottom) during 10 large-scale sampling cruises during the A. fundyense bloom season (May-August) in the coastal Gulf of Maine and on Georges Bank in 2007, 2008, and 2010. Our findings were as follows: (1) when all sampling stations and all depths were summed by year, the majority (94% ± 4%) of total PSP toxicity was contained in the 20-64 µm size fraction; (2) when further analyzed by depth, the 20-64 µm size fraction was the primary source of toxin for 97% of the stations and depths samples over three years; (3) overall PSP toxin profiles were fairly consistent during the three seasons of sampling with gonyautoxins (1, 2, 3, and 4) dominating (90.7% ± 5.5%), followed by the carbamate toxins saxitoxin (STX) and neosaxitoxin (NEO) (7.7% ± 4.5%), followed by n-sulfocarbamoyl toxins (C1 and 2, GTX5) (1.3% ± 0.6%), followed by all decarbamoyl toxins (dcSTX, dcNEO, dcGTX2&3) (< 1%), although differences were noted between PSP toxin compositions for nearshore coastal Gulf of Maine sampling stations compared to offshore Georges Bank sampling stations for 2 out of 3 years; (4) surface cell counts of A. fundyense were a fairly reliable predictor of the presence of toxins throughout the water column; and (5) nearshore surface cell counts of A. fundyense in the coastal Gulf of Maine were not a reliable predictor of A. fundyense populations offshore on Georges Bank for 2 out of the 3 years sampled.

Alexandrium fundyense cysts in the Gulf of Maine: long-term time series of abundance and distribution, and linkages to past and future blooms.

Here we document Alexandrium fundyense cyst abundance and distribution patterns over nine years (1997 and 2004-2011) in the coastal waters of the Gulf of Maine (GOM) and identify linkages between those patterns and several metrics of the severity or magnitude of blooms occurring before and after each autumn cyst survey. We also explore the relative utility of two measures of cyst abundance and demonstrate that GOM cyst counts can be normalized to sediment volume, revealing meaningful patterns equivalent to those determined with dry weight normalization. Cyst concentrations were highly variable spatially. Two distinct seedbeds (defined here as accumulation zones with > 300 cysts cm-3) are evident, one in the Bay of Fundy (BOF) and one in mid-coast Maine. Overall, seedbed locations remained relatively constant through time, but their area varied 3-4 fold, and total cyst abundance more than 10 fold among years. A major expansion of the mid-coast Maine seedbed occurred in 2009 following an unusually intense A. fundyense bloom with visible red-water conditions, but that feature disappeared by late 2010. The regional system thus has only two seedbeds with the bathymetry, sediment characteristics, currents, biology, and environmental conditions necessary to persist for decades or longer. Strong positive correlations were confirmed between the abundance of cysts in both the 0-1 and the 0-3 cm layers of sediments in autumn and geographic measures of the extent of the bloom that occurred the next year (i.e., cysts → blooms), such as the length of coastline closed due to shellfish toxicity or the southernmost latitude of shellfish closures. In general, these metrics of bloom geographic extent did not correlate with the number of cysts in sediments following the blooms (blooms → cysts). There are, however, significant positive correlations between 0-3 cm cyst abundances and metrics of the preceding bloom that are indicative of bloom intensity or vegetative cell abundance (e.g., cumulative shellfish toxicity, duration of detectable toxicity in shellfish, and bloom termination date). These data suggest that it may be possible to use cyst abundance to empirically forecast the geographic extent of the forthcoming bloom and, conversely, to use other metrics from bloom and toxicity events to forecast the size of the subsequent cyst population as the inoculum for the next year's bloom. This is an important step towards understanding the excystment/encystment cycle in A. fundyense bloom dynamics while also augmenting our predictive capability for this HAB-forming species in the GOM.

Understanding interannual, decadal level variability in paralytic shellfish poisoning toxicity in the Gulf of Maine: the HAB Index.

A major goal in harmful algal bloom (HAB) research has been to identify mechanisms underlying interannual variability in bloom magnitude and impact. Here the focus is on variability in Alexandrium fundyense blooms and paralytic shellfish poisoning (PSP) toxicity in Maine, USA, over 34 years (1978 - 2011). The Maine coastline was divided into two regions -eastern and western Maine, and within those two regions, three measures of PSP toxicity (the percent of stations showing detectable toxicity over the year, the cumulative amount of toxicity per station measured in all shellfish (mussel) samples during that year, and the duration of measurable toxicity) were examined for each year in the time series. These metrics were combined into a simple HAB Index that provides a single measure of annual toxin severity across each region. The three toxin metrics, as well as the HAB Index that integrates them, reveal significant variability in overall toxicity between individual years as well as long-term, decadal patterns or regimes. Based on different conceptual models of the system, we considered three trend formulations to characterize the long-term patterns in the Index - a three-phase (mean-shift) model, a linear two-phase model, and a pulse-decline model. The first represents a "regime shift" or multiple equilibria formulation as might occur with alternating periods of sustained high and low cyst abundance or favorable and unfavorable growth conditions, the second depicts a scenario of more gradual transitions in cyst abundance or growth conditions of vegetative cells, and the third characterizes a "sawtooth" pattern in which upward shifts in toxicity are associated with major cyst recruitment events, followed by a gradual but continuous decline until the next pulse. The fitted models were compared using both residual sum of squares and Akaike's Information Criterion. There were some differences between model fits, but none consistently gave a better fit than the others. This statistical underpinning can guide efforts to identify physical and/or biological mechanisms underlying the patterns revealed by the HAB Index. Although A. fundyense cyst survey data (limited to 9 years) do not span the entire interval of the shellfish toxicity records, this analysis leads us to hypothesize that major changes in the abundance of A. fundyense cysts may be a primary factor contributing to the decadal trends in shellfish toxicity in this region. The HAB Index approach taken here is simple but represents a novel and potentially useful tool for resource managers in many areas of the world subject to toxic HABs.

Pelagic Sargassum in the Gulf of Mexico driven by ocean currents and eddies.

Pelagic Sargassum in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) plays an important role in ocean biology and ecology, yet our knowledge of its origins and transport pathways is limited. Here, using satellite observations of Sargassum areal density and ocean surface currents between 2000 and 2023, we show that large amounts of Sargassum in the GoM can either originate from the northwestern GoM or be a result of physical transport from the northwestern Caribbean Sea, both with specific transport pathways. Sargassum of the northwestern GoM can be transported to the eastern GoM by ocean currents and eddies, eventually entering the Sargasso Sea. Sargassum entering the GoM from the northwestern Caribbean Sea can be transported in three different directions, with the northward and eastward transports governed by the Loop Current System (LCS) and westward transport driven by the westward extension of the LCS, the propagation or relaying of ocean eddies, the wind-driven westward currents on the Campeche Bank with or without eddies, and the westward currents with/without currents associated with eddies in the northern/central GoM. Overall, the spatial distribution patterns of pelagic Sargassum in the GoM are strongly influenced by the LCS and relevant eddies.

Model Simulations of the Bay of Fundy Gyre: 2. Hindcasts for 2005-2007 Reveal Interannual Variability in Retentiveness.

A persistent gyre at the mouth of the Bay of Fundy results from a combination of tidal rectification and buoyancy forcing (Aretxabaleta et al., J. Geophys. Res., vol. 113, 2008). Here we assess interannual variability in the strength of the gyre using data assimilative model simulations. Realistic hindcast representations of the Gyre are considered over the course of cruise surveys in 2005, 2006 and 2007. Assimilation of shipboard and moored ADCP velocities are used to improve the skill of the simulations, as quantified by comparison with non-assimilated drifter trajectories. Our hindcast suggest a weakening of the Gyre system during May 2005. Retention of simulated passive particles in the Gyre during that period was highly reduced. A recovery of the dense water pool in the deep part of the basin by June 2006 resulted in a return to particle retention characteristics similar to climatology. Retention estimates reached a maximum during May 2007 (sub-surface) and June-July 2007 (near-surface). Interannual variability in the strength of the gyre was primarily modulated by the stratification of the dense water pool inside the Grand Manan Basin. These changes in stratification may be attributed to mixing conditions the preceding fall/winter and/or advectively-driven modification of water mass properties.

Investigation of the 2006 Alexandrium fundyense Bloom in the Gulf of Maine: In situ Observations and Numerical Modeling.

In situ observations and a coupled bio-physical model were used to study the germination, initiation, and development of the Gulf of Maine (GOM) Alexandrium fundyense bloom in 2006. Hydrographic measurements and comparisons with GOM climatology indicate that 2006 was a year with normal coastal water temperature, salinity, current and river runoff conditions. A. fundyense cyst abundance in bottom sediments preceding the 2006 bloom was at a moderate level compared to other recent annual cyst survey data. We used the coupled bio-physical model to hindcast coastal circulation and A. fundyense cell concentrations. Field data including water temperature, salinity, velocity time series and surface A. fundyense cell concentration maps were applied to gauge the model's fidelity. The coupled model is capable of reproducing the hydrodynamics and the temporal and spatial distributions of A. fundyense cell concentration reasonably well. Model hindcast solutions were further used to diagnose physical and biological factors controlling the bloom dynamics. Surface wind fields modulated the bloom's horizontal and vertical distribution. The initial cyst distribution was found to be the dominant factor affecting the severity and the interannual variability of the A. fundyense bloom. Initial cyst abundance for the 2006 bloom was about 50% of that prior to the 2005 bloom. As the result, the time-averaged gulf-wide cell concentration in 2006 was also only about 60% of that in 2005. In addition, weaker alongshore currents and episodic upwelling-favorable winds in 2006 reduced the spatial extent of the bloom as compared with 2005.

Skill Assessment for Coupled Biological/Physical Models of Marine Systems.

Coupled biological/physical models of marine systems serve many purposes including the synthesis of information, hypothesis generation, and as a tool for numerical experimentation. However, marine system models are increasingly used for prediction to support high-stakes decision-making. In such applications it is imperative that a rigorous model skill assessment is conducted so that the model's capabilities are tested and understood. Herein, we review several metrics and approaches useful to evaluate model skill. The definition of skill and the determination of the skill level necessary for a given application is context specific and no single metric is likely to reveal all aspects of model skill. Thus, we recommend the use of several metrics, in concert, to provide a more thorough appraisal. The routine application and presentation of rigorous skill assessment metrics will also serve the broader interests of the modeling community, ultimately resulting in improved forecasting abilities as well as helping us recognize our limitations.

Pseudo-nitzschia bloom dynamics in the Gulf of Maine: 2012-2016.

The toxic diatom genus Pseudo-nitzschia is a growing presence in the Gulf of Maine (GOM), where regionally unprecedented levels of domoic acid (DA) in 2016 led to the first Amnesic Shellfish Poisoning closures in the region. However, factors driving GOM Pseudo-nitzschia dynamics, DA concentrations, and the 2016 event are unclear. Water samples were collected at the surface and at depth in offshore transects in summer 2012, 2014, and 2015, and fall 2016, and a weekly time series of surface water samples was collected in 2013. Temperature and salinity data were obtained from NERACOOS buoys and measurements during sample collection. Samples were processed for particulate DA (pDA), dissolved nutrients (nitrate, ammonium, silicic acid, and phosphate), and cellular abundance. Species composition was estimated via Automated Ribosomal Intergenic Spacer Analysis (ARISA), a semi-quantitative DNA finger-printing tool. Pseudo-nitzschia biogeography was consistent in the years 2012, 2014, and 2015, with greater Pseudo-nitzschia cell abundance and P. plurisecta dominance in low-salinity inshore samples, and lower Pseudo-nitzschia cell abundance and P. delicatissima and P. seriata dominance in high-salinity offshore samples. During the 2016 event, pDA concentrations were an order of magnitude higher than in previous years, and inshore-offshore contrasts in biogeography were weak, with P. australis present in every sample. Patterns in temporal and spatial variability confirm that pDA increases with the abundance and the cellular DA of Pseudo-nitzschia species, but was not correlated with any one environmental factor. The greater pDA in 2016 was caused by P. australis - the observation of which is unprecedented in the region - and may have been exacerbated by low residual silicic acid. The novel presence of P. australis may be due to local growth conditions, the introduction of a population with an anomalous water mass, or both factors. A definitive cause of the 2016 bloom remains unknown, and continued DA monitoring in the GOM is warranted.

Gulf of Maine Harmful Algal Bloom in summer 2005 - Part 1: In Situ Observations of Coastal Hydrography and Circulation.

An extensive Alexandrium fundyense bloom occurred along the coast of the Gulf of Maine in late spring and early summer, 2005. To understand the physical aspects of bloom's initiation and development, in-situ observations from both a gulf-wide ship survey and the coastal observing network were used to characterize coastal circulation and hydrography during that time period. Comparisons between these in-situ observations and their respective long term means revealed anomalous ocean conditions during May 2005: waters were warmer and fresher gulf-wide due to more surface heating and river runoff; coastal currents were at least two times stronger than their climatological means. Surface winds were also anomalous in the form of both episodic burst of northeaster storms and downwelling favorable mean condition. These factors may have favored more vigorous along-shore transport and near shore aggregation of toxic A. fundyense cells (a red tide) in 2005.

Gulf of Maine Harmful Algal Bloom in summer 2005 - Part 2: Coupled Bio-physical Numerical Modeling.

A coupled physical/biological modeling system was used to hindcast the 2005 Alexandrium fundyense bloom in the Gulf of Maine and investigate the relative importance of factors governing the bloom's initiation and development. The coupled system consists of a state-of-the-art, free-surface primitive equation Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) tailored for the Gulf of Maine (GOM) using a multi-nested configuration, and a population dynamics model for A. fundyense. The system was forced by realistic momentum and buoyancy fluxes, tides, river runoff, observed A. fundyense benthic cyst abundance, and climatological nutrient fields. Extensive comparisons were made between simulated (both physical and biological) fields and in-situ observations, revealing that the hindcast model is capable of reproducing the temporal evolution and spatial distribution of the 2005 bloom. Sensitivity experiments were then performed to distinguish the roles of three major factors hypothesized to contribute to the bloom: 1) the high abundance of cysts in western GOM sediments; 2) strong northeaster storms with prevailing downwelling-favorable winds; and 3) a large amount of fresh water input due to abundant rainfall and heavy snowmelt. Results suggested that the high abundance of cysts in western GOM was the primary factor of the 2005 bloom. Wind forcing was an important regulator, as episodic bursts of northeast winds caused onshore advection of offshore populations. These downwelling favorable winds accelerated the alongshore flow, resulting in transport of high cell concentrations into Massachusetts Bay. A large regional bloom would still have happened, however, even with normal or typical winds for that period. Anomalously high river runoff in 2005 resulted in stronger buoyant plumes/currents, which facilitated the transport of cell population to the western GOM. While affecting nearshore cell abundance in Massachusetts Bay, the buoyant plumes were confined near to the coast, and had limited impact on the gulf-wide bloom distribution.

Environmental controls, oceanography and population dynamics of pathogens and harmful algal blooms: connecting sources to human exposure.

Coupled physical-biological models are capable of linking the complex interactions between environmental factors and physical hydrodynamics to simulate the growth, toxicity and transport of infectious pathogens and harmful algal blooms (HABs). Such simulations can be used to assess and predict the impact of pathogens and HABs on human health. Given the widespread and increasing reliance of coastal communities on aquatic systems for drinking water, seafood and recreation, such predictions are critical for making informed resource management decisions. Here we identify three challenges to making this connection between pathogens/HABs and human health: predicting concentrations and toxicity; identifying the spatial and temporal scales of population and ecosystem interactions; and applying the understanding of population dynamics of pathogens/HABs to management strategies. We elaborate on the need to meet each of these challenges, describe how modeling approaches can be used and discuss strategies for moving forward in addressing these challenges.

High resolution time series reveals cohesive but short-lived communities in coastal plankton.

Because microbial plankton in the ocean comprise diverse bacteria, algae, and protists that are subject to environmental forcing on multiple spatial and temporal scales, a fundamental open question is to what extent these organisms form ecologically cohesive communities. Here we show that although all taxa undergo large, near daily fluctuations in abundance, microbial plankton are organized into clearly defined communities whose turnover is rapid and sharp. We analyze a time series of 93 consecutive days of coastal plankton using a technique that allows inference of communities as modular units of interacting taxa by determining positive and negative correlations at different temporal frequencies. This approach shows both coordinated population expansions that demarcate community boundaries and high frequency of positive and negative associations among populations within communities. Our analysis thus highlights that the environmental variability of the coastal ocean is mirrored in sharp transitions of defined but ephemeral communities of organisms.