Individualized prediction models in ADHD: a systematic review and meta-regression.

There have been increasing efforts to develop prediction models supporting personalised detection, prediction, or treatment of ADHD. We overviewed the current status of prediction science in ADHD by: (1) systematically reviewing and appraising available prediction models; (2) quantitatively assessing factors impacting the performance of published models. We did a PRISMA/CHARMS/TRIPOD-compliant systematic review (PROSPERO: CRD42023387502), searching, until 20/12/2023, studies reporting internally and/or externally validated diagnostic/prognostic/treatment-response prediction models in ADHD. Using meta-regressions, we explored the impact of factors affecting the area under the curve (AUC) of the models. We assessed the study risk of bias with the Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST). From 7764 identified records, 100 prediction models were included (88% diagnostic, 5% prognostic, and 7% treatment-response). Of these, 96% and 7% were internally and externally validated, respectively. None was implemented in clinical practice. Only 8% of the models were deemed at low risk of bias; 67% were considered at high risk of bias. Clinical, neuroimaging, and cognitive predictors were used in 35%, 31%, and 27% of the studies, respectively. The performance of ADHD prediction models was increased in those models including, compared to those models not including, clinical predictors (ß = 6.54, p = 0.007). Type of validation, age range, type of model, number of predictors, study quality, and other type of predictors did not alter the AUC. Several prediction models have been developed to support the diagnosis of ADHD. However, efforts to predict outcomes or treatment response have been limited, and none of the available models is ready for implementation into clinical practice. The use of clinical predictors, which may be combined with other type of predictors, seems to improve the performance of the models. A new generation of research should address these gaps by conducting high quality, replicable, and externally validated models, followed by implementation research.

Does Prospective Mental Imagery Predict Symptoms of Negative Affect and Anhedonia in Young People?

Adolescent depression is associated with unhelpful emotional mental imagery. Here, we investigated whether vividness of negative and positive prospective mental imagery predict negative affect and anhedonia in adolescents. 111 people from Israel completed measures of prospective mental imagery, negative affect, and anhedonia at two time-points approximately three months apart. Using three cross-lagged panel models, we showed once 'concurrent' (across-variable, within-time) and 'stability' paths (across-time, within-variable) were estimated, there were no significant cross-lag paths between: i) T1 prospective negative mental imagery and T8 negative affect (i.e. increased vividness of negative future imagery at Time 1 did not predict increased negative affect at Time 8); ii) T1 prospective positive mental imagery and T8 negative affect (i.e. reduced vividness of positive future imagery at Time 1 did not predict increased negative affect at Time 8); and iii) T1 prospective positive mental imagery and T8 anhedonia (i.e. reduced vividness of positive future imagery at Time 1 did not predict increased anhedonia at Time 8). Given high levels of attrition, future research should aim to explore these associations in a larger, more diverse population, as such data could inform on whether modifying earlier prospective mental imagery may influence later time/context-specific effects of prospective mental imagery on negative affect and anhedonia.

Clinical prediction models in psychiatry: a systematic review of two decades of progress and challenges.

Recent years have seen the rapid proliferation of clinical prediction models aiming to support risk stratification and individualized care within psychiatry. Despite growing interest, attempts to synthesize current evidence in the nascent field of precision psychiatry have remained scarce. This systematic review therefore sought to summarize progress towards clinical implementation of prediction modeling for psychiatric outcomes. We searched MEDLINE, PubMed, Embase, and PsychINFO databases from inception to September 30, 2020, for English-language articles that developed and/or validated multivariable models to predict (at an individual level) onset, course, or treatment response for non-organic psychiatric disorders (PROSPERO: CRD42020216530). Individual prediction models were evaluated based on three key criteria: (i) mitigation of bias and overfitting; (ii) generalizability, and (iii) clinical utility. The Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool (PROBAST) was used to formally appraise each study's risk of bias. 228 studies detailing 308 prediction models were ultimately eligible for inclusion. 94.5% of developed prediction models were deemed to be at high risk of bias, largely due to inadequate or inappropriate analytic decisions. Insufficient internal validation efforts (within the development sample) were also observed, while only one-fifth of models underwent external validation in an independent sample. Finally, our search identified just one published model whose potential utility in clinical practice was formally assessed. Our findings illustrated significant growth in precision psychiatry with promising progress towards real-world application. Nevertheless, these efforts have been inhibited by a preponderance of bias and overfitting, while the generalizability and clinical utility of many published models has yet to be formally established. Through improved methodological rigor during initial development, robust evaluations of reproducibility via independent validation, and evidence-based implementation frameworks, future research has the potential to generate risk prediction tools capable of enhancing clinical decision-making in psychiatric care.

Neonatal DNA methylation and childhood low prosocial behavior: An epigenome-wide association meta-analysis.

Low prosocial behavior in childhood has been consistently linked to later psychopathology, with evidence supporting the influence of both genetic and environmental factors on its development. Although neonatal DNA methylation (DNAm) has been found to prospectively associate with a range of psychological traits in childhood, its potential role in prosocial development has yet to be investigated. This study investigated prospective associations between cord blood DNAm at birth and low prosocial behavior within and across four longitudinal birth cohorts from the Pregnancy And Childhood Epigenetics (PACE) Consortium. We examined (a) developmental trajectories of "chronic-low" versus "typical" prosocial behavior across childhood in a case-control design (N = 2,095), and (b) continuous "low prosocial" scores at comparable cross-cohort time-points (N = 2,121). Meta-analyses were performed to examine differentially methylated positions and regions. At the cohort-specific level, three CpGs were found to associate with chronic low prosocial behavior; however, none of these associations was replicated in another cohort. Meta-analysis revealed no epigenome-wide significant CpGs or regions. Overall, we found no evidence for associations between DNAm patterns at birth and low prosocial behavior across childhood. Findings highlight the importance of employing multi-cohort approaches to replicate epigenetic associations and reduce the risk of false positive discoveries.

A Methylome-Wide Association Study of Trajectories of Oppositional Defiant Behaviors and Biological Overlap With Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder.

In 671 mother-child (49% male) pairs from an epidemiological birth cohort, we investigated (a) prospective associations between DNA methylation (at birth) and trajectories (ages 7-13) of oppositional defiant disorder (ODD), and the ODD subdimensions of irritable and headstrong; (b) common biological pathways, indexed by DNA methylation, between ODD trajectories and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD); (c) genetic influence on DNA methylation; and (d) prenatal risk exposure associations. Methylome-wide significant associations were identified for the ODD and headstrong, but not for irritable. Overlap analysis indicated biological correlates between ODD, headstrong, and ADHD. DNA methylation in ODD and headstrong was (to a degree) genetically influenced. DNA methylation associated with prenatal risk exposures of maternal anxiety (headstrong) and cigarette smoking (ODD and headstrong).

Time Course of Incident Adverse Experiences Associated with Doxazosin, Finasteride and Combination Therapy in Men with Benign Prostatic Hyperplasia: The MTOPS Trial.

PURPOSE: We examined first (incident) reports of selected adverse experiences associated with medical therapy in men with lower urinary tract symptoms secondary to benign prostatic hyperplasia. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We studied the 6 most common adverse experiences, including nonsexual function related experiences (dizziness, orthostatic hypotension and weakness) and sexual function related experiences (impotence, decreased libido and abnormal ejaculation) reported in the MTOPS (Medical Therapy of Prostatic Symptoms) Study. A total of 3,047 men were randomized to placebo, doxazosin, finasteride or combination therapy and followed for a mean duration of 4.5 years. We compared the incidence rates of adverse experiences at year 1 to the rates thereafter. RESULTS: For each assigned treatment group, the incidence rates were significantly higher for all 6 adverse experiences examined at year 1 compared with the rates thereafter. Men assigned to combination therapy experienced the highest rates at year 1 with rates 3.4-fold to 10.6-fold higher than rates after year 1. The incidence rates for orthostatic hypotension and dizziness were significantly higher in the doxazosin and combination therapy groups compared with the placebo group at year 1. The incidence rates of the 3 examined sexual function related adverse experiences were significantly higher in the finasteride and combination therapy groups than in the placebo group at year 1. CONCLUSIONS: Rates of the first report of sexual function related and other adverse experiences associated with doxazosin, finasteride and combination therapy were greatest during year 1 of treatment. These patterns should be considered by patients and physicians when treatment for lower urinary tract function is initiated with these drugs.

Effects of long-term oral testosterone undecanoate therapy on urinary symptoms: data from a 1-year, placebo-controlled, dose-ranging trial in aging men with symptomatic hypogonadism.

BACKGROUND: There has been a longstanding question as to whether testosterone therapy could precipitate or worsen urinary symptoms in aging men. We investigated the effects of 1-year oral testosterone undecanoate (TU) therapy on urinary symptoms in aging, hypogonadal men. METHODS: A total of 322 men ≥50 years with symptomatic testosterone deficiency participated in a 1-year, randomized, multicenter, double-blind trial. Patients received placebo or oral TU 80 mg/day, 160 mg/day, or 240 mg/day. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: Compared with placebo, treatment with oral TU at doses of 80 mg/day and 160 mg/day resulted in no significant change in IPSS urinary symptoms or quality of life (QoL) scores. Treatment with oral TU 240 mg/day led to a statistically significant, but clinically insignificant, improvement in IPSS total score and a significant improvement in IPSS QoL score. None of the TU doses tested had a significant effect on PSA or PV. CONCLUSIONS: Long-term oral TU therapy had no deleterious effects on IPSS total score and did not change PV and PSA in aging, hypogonadal men. Oral TU therapy at a dose of 240 mg/day may even improve IPSS QoL score.

Prevalence of low testosterone in aging men with benign prostatic hyperplasia: data from the Proscar Long-term Efficacy and Safety Study (PLESS).

OBJECTIVES: We examined the prevalence of low testosterone (LT) in the subset of men in the Proscar Long-term Efficacy and Safety Study (PLESS) who had serum total testosterone (TT) measured at baseline. METHODS: PLESS enrolled 3040 men with benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH). Of these men, 299 had TT and body mass index (BMI) measurements at baseline. Patients were classified as having LT if their baseline TT was <300 ng/dl. RESULTS: Of the 299 PLESS patients with baseline TT and BMI measurements, 65 (21.7%) had LT. The prevalence of LT increased with increasing BMI, occurring in 8/78 (10.3%) normal weight patients (baseline BMI <25 kg/m2), 35/160 (21.9%) overweight patients (baseline BMI ≥25-<30 kg/m2), and 22/61 (36.1%) obese patients (baseline BMI ≥30 kg/m2). CONCLUSIONS: LT was observed in more than one in five PLESS patients with baseline TT and BMI measurements. The prevalence of LT increased with increasing BMI - more than one in three obese PLESS patients with baseline TT measurements had LT.

Prevalence of low testosterone and its relationship to body mass index in older men with lower urinary tract symptoms associated with benign prostatic hyperplasia.

PURPOSE: We examined the prevalence of low testosterone (LT) and its relationship with body mass index (BMI) in men with lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS) associated with benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH), who were enrolled in a clinical trial of drug therapy, the Medical Therapy of Prostatic Symptoms (MTOPS) Study. MATERIALS AND METHODS: MTOPS enrolled 3047 men, and of these, 1896 had total testosterone (TT) measured at baseline. LT was defined as a single measurement of TT of <300 ng/dL. RESULTS: The overall prevalence of LT was 25.7%. Prevalence increased with increasing BMI; 14.7% among men who were normal weight (BMI <25 kg/m(2)) and 24.2% and 39.3% among overweight (BMI 25 to <30 kg/m(2)), and obese (baseline BMI ≥30 kg/m(2)) men, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: LT was observed in about one in four MTOPS study participants with baseline TT measurements. The prevalence of LT increased markedly with increasing BMI. Our findings suggest a high prevalence of LT in obese men with LUTS/BPH. Physicians should be alert to the possibility of symptoms of hypogonadism in this population.

Effects of oral testosterone undecanoate therapy on bone mineral density and body composition in 322 aging men with symptomatic testosterone deficiency: a 1-year, randomized, placebo-controlled, dose-ranging study.

OBJECTIVE: We investigated the effects of oral testosterone undecanoate (TU) on bone mineral density (BMD), lean body mass (LBM) and body fat mass (BFM) in aging men with symptomatic testosterone deficiency (TD). METHODS: Three hundred twenty-two men ≥50 years with TD symptoms and calculated free testosterone <0.26 nmol/L participated in a multicenter, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial. Patients were randomized to placebo, oral TU 80 mg/d, oral TU 160 mg/d, or oral TU 240 mg/d, administered as divided doses with normal meals. BMD of the hip and lumbar spine were evaluated by dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DEXA), and body composition (LBM and BFM) by whole body DEXA. RESULTS: Oral TU significantly increased BMD at Month 12 at the lumbar spine (240 mg/d), total hip (240 mg/d), and trochanter and intertrochanter (160 and 240 mg/d) compared with placebo. Oral TU significantly increased LBM at Months 6 and 12 for all oral TU groups compared with placebo. BFM significantly decreased at Month 6 (all oral TU groups) and Month 12 (160 mg/d) compared with placebo. The effects on BMD and body composition showed a clear dose response. CONCLUSIONS: Treatment with oral TU led to improvement in BMD, LBM and BFM in aging men with symptomatic TD.

Is Future Mental Imagery Associated with Reduced Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Negative Affect and Anhedonic Symptoms in Young People?

Background: Difficulties with prospective mental images are associated with adolescent depression. Current treatments mainly focus on verbal techniques to reduce negative affect (e.g. low mood) rather than enhancing positive affect, despite anhedonia being present in adolescents. We investigated the concurrent relationships between the vividness of negative and positive prospective mental imagery and negative affect and positive affect; and examined whether negative and positive prospective mental imagery moderated the impact of recent stress (COVID-19-linked stress) on negative and positive affect. Methods: 2602 young people (12-25 years) completed the Prospective Imagery Task and self-reported on symptoms of negative affect, anhedonia and COVID-19 linked stress. Results: Elevated vividness of negative future mental imagery and reduced vividness of positive future mental imagery were associated with increased negative affect, whereas only reduced vividness of positive future imagery was associated with increased symptoms of anhedonia. Elevated vividness of negative future images amplified the association between COVID-19 linked stress and negative affect, while elevated vividness of positive future images attenuated the association between COVID-19 linked stress and anhedonia. Conclusions: Future mental imagery may be differentially associated with negative and positive affect, but this needs to be replicated in clinical populations to support novel adolescent psychological treatments. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10608-023-10352-1.

Low Occurrence of Colectomy With Long-Term (up to 4 Years) Golimumab Treatment in Patients With Moderate-to-Severe Active Ulcerative Colitis: Data From the PURSUIT Maintenance and Long-Term Extension Studies.

Background: This analysis evaluated the incidence of all-cause colectomies (total or partial) among patients with moderate-to-severe active ulcerative colitis (UC) in the golimumab (GLM) Program of Ulcerative Colitis Utilizing an Investigational Treatment (PURSUIT)-maintenance (-M) and long-term extension (-LTE) studies. Methods: Eligible PURSUIT-M trial participants completed a 6-week GLM induction trial without requiring colectomy. Responders to GLM induction were randomized 1:1:1 to GLM 50 mg, GLM 100 mg, or placebo (PBO) maintenance for up to 1 year, administered every 4 weeks (q4w). Nonresponders to GLM or PBO induction received GLM 100 mg; responders to PBO induction received PBO (each administered q4w for up to 1 year). Participants who completed PURSUIT-M were eligible to continue their treatment in the 3-year PURSUIT-LTE study. Results: A total of 60 (4.9%) colectomies were reported among the 1228 patients who enrolled in the 1-year PURSUIT-M study, which included 672 participants who continued into the 3-year PURSUIT-LTE LTE study (of which 666 were treated). The colectomy rate during the 3-year extension was lower than that observed during the maintenance phase of the study (9/666 [1.4%] compared to 51/1228 [4.2%]). The majority (43/60 [71.7%]) of the reported colectomies occurred in patients who had not responded to induction therapy and who tended to have had more severe disease characteristics at baseline. Conclusions: This retrospective evaluation of colectomy data from the PURSUIT-M and -LTE studies in patients with moderate-to-severe active UC demonstrated a low (<5%) occurrence of colectomy with long-term (up to 4 years) GLM treatment. PURSUIT-M (NCT00488631; EudraCT, 2006-003399-37).

Long-term golimumab persistence: Five-year treatment retention data pooled from pivotal Phase III clinical trials in patients with rheumatoid arthritis, psoriatic arthritis, and ankylosing spondylitis.

INTRODUCTION: Golimumab, a monoclonal antibody against tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), is used widely for treatment of rheumatic diseases. Long-term persistence is an important factor influencing therapeutic benefit and is a surrogate measure of efficacy. We compared five-year golimumab treatment persistence across studies, indications, and lines of therapy using pooled data from pivotal golimumab Phase III clinical trials. METHODS: This post-hoc analysis evaluated use of golimumab administered subcutaneously (50 or 100 mg every four weeks) for up to five years in 2228 adult participants with rheumatoid arthritis (RA; GO-BEFORE, GO-AFTER, and GO-FORWARD studies), psoriatic arthritis (PsA; GO-REVEAL study), or ankylosing spondylitis (AS; GO-RAISE study). Retention rate differences were evaluated by study, indication, and line of therapy using log-rank tests, and probability of treatment persistence was estimated by Kaplan-Meier analysis. RESULTS: Golimumab retention rates at Year 5 were consistently high when used as 1st-line therapy (69.8%) and did not differ significantly across the three indications tested (p = 0.5106) or across 1st-line studies (p = 0.2327). Retention at Year 5 was better in participants using golimumab as 1st-line than in those using it as 2nd-line (41.6%) therapy. Participants on 2nd-line golimumab therapy had a longer disease duration (median 9.2 years versus 3.7 years) than those on 1st-line golimumab therapy. CONCLUSIONS: These data support the value of long-term golimumab therapy in patients with chronic, immune-mediated rheumatic diseases when used as 1st-line (RA, PsA, AS) or 2nd-line (RA) therapy. Key Points • Golimumab is a human monoclonal antibody directed against tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α) and is approved widely for the treatment of rheumatic autoimmune diseases. • We compared the probability of treatment persistence, or the time of continuous drug use, for golimumab across five Phase III studies spanning multiple rheumatic indications over five years. • Treatment persistence was favorable and did not differ significantly for participants with rheumatoid arthritis, psoriatic arthritis, and ankylosing spondylitis, but persistence was greater when golimumab was used as 1st-line than as 2nd-line biologic therapy.

No differences in the pharmacodynamics and pharmacokinetics of the thrombin receptor antagonist vorapaxar between healthy Japanese and Caucasian subjects.

BACKGROUND: Vorapaxar, a novel antiplatelet agent in advanced clinical development for the prevention and treatment of atherothrombotic disease, is a potent, orally bioavailable thrombin receptor antagonist selective for the protease-activated receptor 1 (PAR-1). METHODS: Since race/ethnicity may affect the safety, efficacy and dosage of drugs, this study was conducted to evaluate potential differences in the pharmacodynamics, pharmacokinetics and safety of vorapaxar after single (5, 10, 20, or 40 mg) or multiple (0.5, 1, or 2.5 mg once daily) doses in healthy Japanese and matched (gender, age, height, and weight) Caucasian volunteers. RESULTS: Vorapaxar was well tolerated in both Japanese and Caucasian subjects. Pharmacodynamic and pharmacokinetic profiles of vorapaxar in the two racial/ethnic groups were similar. In both racial groups, complete inhibition of platelet aggregation was achieved most rapidly with vorapaxar 40 mg and was consistently achieved and maintained with a 2.5 mg daily maintenance dose. CONCLUSION: There were no substantial differences in the safety, pharmacokinetics or pharmacodynamics of vorapaxar between Japanese and Caucasian subjects.

Using a Loneliness Measure to Screen for Risk of Mental Health Problems: A Replication in Two Nationally Representative Cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Loneliness co-occurs alongside many mental health problems and is associated with poorer treatment outcomes. It could therefore be a phenomenon of interest to clinicians as an indicator of generalised risk for psychopathology. The present study tested whether a short measure of loneliness can accurately classify individuals who are at increased risk of common mental health problems. METHODS: Data were drawn from two nationally representative cohorts: the age-18 wave of the UK-based Environmental Risk (E-Risk) Longitudinal Twin Study and the age-38 wave of the New Zealand-based Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Study. In both cohorts, loneliness was assessed using the three-item UCLA Loneliness Scale, plus two stand-alone items about feeling alone and feeling lonely. Outcome measures consisted of diagnoses of depression and anxiety and self-reports of self-harm/suicide attempts, assessed via a structured interview. RESULTS: ROC curve analysis showed that the Loneliness Scale had fair accuracy in classifying individuals meeting criteria for all three outcomes, with a cut-off score of 5 (on a scale from 3 to 9) having the strongest empirical support. Both of the stand-alone items showed modest sensitivity and specificity but were more limited in their flexibility. The findings were replicated across the two cohorts, indicating that they are applicable both to younger and older adults. In addition, the accuracy of the loneliness scale in detecting mental health problems was comparable to a measure of poor sleep quality, a phenomenon which is often included in screening tools for depression and anxiety. CONCLUSIONS: These findings indicate that a loneliness measure could have utility in mental health screening contexts, as well as in research.

Developmental pathways from toddler difficult temperament to child generalized psychopathology and adult functioning.

BACKGROUND: Early difficult temperament and child mental health problems are consistently associated with impaired functioning in adulthood. We examined three potential pathways between difficult temperament in toddlerhood (age 2) and depressive symptoms (ages 21-23) and well-being (age 23): i) direct - early difficult temperament directly associates with these outcomes, ii) mediated - these direct effects are also mediated by a general psychopathology factor in late childhood/early adolescence (GPF; ages 7, 10,and 13), and iii) moderated-mediated - these mediated effects are also moderated by negative (age 42 months) and positive (age 33 months) parenting behaviors. METHODS: The analytic sample included 1892 mother-child dyads (33.4% male children) from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC). Mothers reported on their child's difficult temperament, negative parenting, positive parenting, and child's mental health symptoms. In adulthood, participants reported their own depressive symptoms and well-being (i.e. mental well-being, life satisfaction, happiness). RESULTS: First, early difficult temperament associated directly and positively with depressive symptoms, but negatively with well-being in adulthood. Second, the GPF in late childhood/early adolescence mediated these direct associations. Third, the mediated pathways were not moderated by negative or positive parenting. LIMITATIONS: i) low risk community sample, ii) early risks are based on maternal reports. CONCLUSIONS: Temperament is a risk factor for impaired psychosocial functioning in adulthood, manifested through increased susceptibility to psychopathology in childhood/adolescence. Although more research is needed to test their generalizability, these findings suggest that targeting early difficult temperament may alleviate the risk for later mental health difficulties and may increase general well-being.

Poor Individual Risk Classification From Adverse Childhood Experiences Screening.

INTRODUCTION: Adverse childhood experiences confer an increased risk for physical and mental health problems across the population, prompting calls for routine clinical screening based on reported adverse childhood experience exposure. However, recent longitudinal research has questioned whether adverse childhood experiences can accurately identify ill health at an individual level. METHODS: Revisiting data collected for the Adverse Childhood Experience Study between 1995 and 1997, this study derived approximate area under the curve estimates to test the ability of the retrospectively reported adverse childhood experience score to discriminate between adults with and without a range of common health risk factors and disease conditions. Furthermore, the classification accuracy of a recommended clinical definition for high-risk exposure (≥4 versus 0-3 adverse childhood experiences) was evaluated on the basis of sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and positive likelihood ratios. RESULTS: Across all health outcomes, the levels of discrimination for the continuous adverse childhood experience score ranged from very poor to fair (area under the curve=0.50-0.76). The binary classification of ≥4 versus 0-3 adverse childhood experiences yielded high specificity (true-negative detection) and negative predictive values (absence of ill health among low-risk adverse childhood experience groups). However, sensitivity (true-positive detection) and positive predictive values (presence of ill health among high-risk adverse childhood experience groups) were low, whereas positive likelihood ratios suggested only minimal-to-moderate increases in health risks among individuals reporting ≥4 adverse childhood experiences versus that among those reporting 0-3. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that screening based on the adverse childhood experience score does not accurately identify those individuals at high risk of health problems. This can lead to both allocation of unnecessary interventions and lack of provision of necessary support.

Patient-reported continuous clinical response to golimumab in adults with moderately to severely active ulcerative colitis: results from GO OBSERVE, a real-world European observational study.

BACKGROUND: In PURSUIT, golimumab (GLM) was efficacious in patients with moderate-to-severe ulcerative colitis (UC). We assessed whether remote monitoring of combined patient-reported Mayo stool frequency and rectal bleeding scores is an effective real-world outcome measure for assessing maintenance of GLM-induced clinical response. METHODS: This was a 54-week prospective, observational cohort study conducted at 43 European outpatient clinics in adults with moderate-to-severe UC who were biologic naïve or had received a maximum of one other biological therapy. Patients were treated according to European GLM UC label/local practice. Clinical response (based on partial or full Mayo score) was assessed at week 6, 10, or 14 of induction, depending on local practice. Investigators remotely monitored scores every 4 weeks. The primary endpoint was the proportion of induction responders in patient-reported continuous clinical response (pCCR) at week 54, defined as absence of UC flare based on combined patient-reported Mayo stool frequency and rectal bleeding scores every 4 weeks and full or partial Mayo score. A key secondary endpoint was the proportion of induction responders in clinical remission at week 54. RESULTS: Among 109 patients, 37 (34.0%) received at least two GLM induction doses and completed induction in clinical response (induction responders). At week 54, 15/37 (40.5%) induction responders were in pCCR, and 21/37 (56.8%) were in clinical remission. CONCLUSION: In daily clinical practice, regular remote monitoring of combined patient-reported Mayo stool frequency and rectal bleeding scores appears to be a meaningful real-world outcome measure for monitoring maintenance of GLM-induced clinical response in UC.

Long-term treatment with finasteride improves clinical progression of benign prostatic hyperplasia in men with an enlarged versus a smaller prostate: data from the MTOPS trial.

PURPOSE: This post hoc analysis of the Medical Therapy of Prostatic Symptoms trial examined the effect of finasteride alone compared to placebo on the clinical progression of benign prostatic hyperplasia in men with a baseline prostate volume less than 30 ml, or 30 ml or greater. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Men were randomized to placebo (737), 4 to 8 mg doxazosin alone (756), 5 mg finasteride alone (768) or doxazosin plus finasteride (786) (average followup was 4.5 years). Approximately 50% of patients had a baseline prostate volume of 30 ml or greater. The present analysis was based on the finasteride alone and placebo arms only, and included patients for whom baseline and end of study data were available. We examined the effect of treatment on the cumulative percentage of men who did not experience clinical progression of benign prostatic hyperplasia by study end. RESULTS: In men with baseline prostate volume 30 ml or greater treatment with finasteride produced a significant (p <0.001) increase relative to placebo in the cumulative percentage of patients who did not experience clinical progression of benign prostatic hyperplasia (finasteride 88.1% vs placebo 77.8%). There was no significant (p = 0.441) between-group difference in men with baseline prostate volume less than 30 ml (91.4% vs 89.1%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Long-term treatment with finasteride led to a significant beneficial effect compared to placebo on the clinical progression of benign prostatic hyperplasia in patients with lower urinary tract symptoms with an enlarged prostate (baseline prostate volume 30 ml or greater). Finasteride had no significant effect compared to placebo on the clinical progression of benign prostatic hyperplasia in patients with lower urinary tract symptoms with a smaller prostate (baseline prostate volume less than 30 ml).

Population vs Individual Prediction of Poor Health From Results of Adverse Childhood Experiences Screening.

Importance: Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) are well-established risk factors for health problems in a population. However, it is not known whether screening for ACEs can accurately identify individuals who develop later health problems. Objective: To test the predictive accuracy of ACE screening for later health problems. Design, Setting, and Participants: This study comprised 2 birth cohorts: the Environmental Risk (E-Risk) Longitudinal Twin Study observed 2232 participants born during the period from 1994 to 1995 until they were aged 18 years (2012-2014); the Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Study observed 1037 participants born during the period from 1972 to 1973 until they were aged 45 years (2017-2019). Statistical analysis was performed from May 28, 2018, to July 29, 2020. Exposures: ACEs were measured prospectively in childhood through repeated interviews and observations in both cohorts. ACEs were also measured retrospectively in the Dunedin cohort through interviews at 38 years. Main Outcomes and Measures: Health outcomes were assessed at 18 years in E-Risk and at 45 years in the Dunedin cohort. Mental health problems were assessed through clinical interviews using the Diagnostic Interview Schedule. Physical health problems were assessed through interviews, anthropometric measurements, and blood collection. Results: Of 2232 E-Risk participants, 2009 (1051 girls [52%]) were included in the analysis. Of 1037 Dunedin cohort participants, 918 (460 boys [50%]) were included in the analysis. In E-Risk, children with higher ACE scores had greater risk of later health problems (any mental health problem: relative risk, 1.14 [95% CI, 1.10-1.18] per each additional ACE; any physical health problem: relative risk, 1.09 [95% CI, 1.07-1.12] per each additional ACE). ACE scores were associated with health problems independent of other information typically available to clinicians (ie, sex, socioeconomic disadvantage, and history of health problems). However, ACE scores had poor accuracy in predicting an individual's risk of later health problems (any mental health problem: area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.58 [95% CI, 0.56-0.61]; any physical health problem: area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.60 [95% CI, 0.58-0.63]; chance prediction: area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.50). Findings were consistent in the Dunedin cohort using both prospective and retrospective ACE measures. Conclusions and Relevance: This study suggests that, although ACE scores can forecast mean group differences in health, they have poor accuracy in predicting an individual's risk of later health problems. Therefore, targeting interventions based on ACE screening is likely to be ineffective in preventing poor health outcomes.