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Epidemiology ; 23(1): 86-94, 2012 Jan.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-22089631

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: During the 2009 pandemic of influenza A (H1N1), many studies reported estimates of the reproduction number from outbreak data. Since then, seroprevalence studies have been conducted in a number of countries to assess the proportion of the population that was infected in the first wave of the pandemic. METHODS: Here, we collate the reproduction number estimates, and use mathematical models to reconcile these with serosurvey data. RESULTS: Most estimates of the reproduction number from outbreaks are in the range of 1.0-2.0, whereas mean estimates calculated from seroprevalence data range from 1.14 to 1.36. Age-specific analysis of these data suggests that the reproduction number for children was approximately 1.6, whereas the reproduction numbers for adults >25 years of age was less than 1.0. CONCLUSION: The difference between age-groups may help to explain high estimates of the reproduction number from outbreaks involving a large proportion of child cases.


Asunto(s)
Subtipo H1N1 del Virus de la Influenza A , Gripe Humana/epidemiología , Pandemias/estadística & datos numéricos , Estudios Seroepidemiológicos , Adolescente , Adulto , Factores de Edad , Niño , Preescolar , Humanos , Lactante , Gripe Humana/transmisión , Gripe Humana/virología , Persona de Mediana Edad , Modelos Estadísticos , Adulto Joven
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