An observational analysis of the impact of indoor residual spraying in two distinct contexts of Burkina Faso.

BACKGROUND: Indoor residual spraying (IRS) is a cornerstone malaria control intervention in Burkina Faso. From 2018 to 2021, non-pyrethroid IRS was implemented annually in two regions of Burkina Faso with distinct malaria transmission patterns, concurrently with annual seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC), and a mass insecticide-treated net (ITN) distribution in 2019. METHODS: A retrospective quasi-experimental approach was used to evaluate the impact of the 2018, 2020, and 2021 IRS campaigns on routinely reported confirmed malaria case incidence at health facilities. The 2019 campaign was excluded due to lack of data reporting during a health sector strike. Controlled interrupted time series models were fit to detect changes in level and trend in malaria case incidence rates following each IRS campaign when compared to the baseline period 24-months before IRS. IRS districts Solenzo (Sudano-Sahelien climate), and Kampti (tropical climate) were compared with neighbouring control districts and the analyses were stratified by region. Modelled health facility catchment population estimates based on travel time to health facilities and weighted by non-malaria outpatient visits were used as an offset. The study period encompassed July 2016 through June 2022, excluding July 2018 to June 2019. RESULTS: District-level population and structure coverage achieved by IRS campaigns was greater than 85% in 2018, 2020, and 2021 in Solenzo and Kampti. In Solenzo a significant difference in malaria case incidence rates was detected after the 2018 campaign (IRR = 0.683; 95% CI 0.564-0.827) when compared to the control district. The effect was not detected following the 2020 or 2021 IRS campaigns. In Kampti, estimated malaria incidence rates were between 36 and 38% lower than in the control district following all three IRS campaigns compared to the baseline period. CONCLUSIONS: Implementation of IRS in Kampti, a tropical region of Burkina Faso, appeared to have a consistent significant beneficial impact on malaria case rates. An initial positive impact in Solenzo after the first IRS campaign was not sustained in the successive evaluated IRS campaigns. This study points to a differential effect of IRS in different malaria transmission settings and in combination with ITN and SMC implementation.

An observational analysis of the impact of deltamethrin + piperonyl butoxide insecticide-treated nets on malaria case incidence and entomological indicators in Ebonyi State, Nigeria, 2017-2021.

BACKGROUND: Intense pyrethroid resistance threatens the effectiveness of the primary vector control intervention, insecticide-treated nets (ITNs), in Nigeria, the country with the largest malaria burden globally. In this study, the epidemiological and entomological impact of a new type of ITN (piperonyl-butoxide [PBO] ITNs) distributed in Ebonyi State were evaluated. The epidemiological impact was also compared to the impact of standard pyrethroid-only ITNs in Cross River State. METHODS: A controlled interrupted time series analysis was conducted on monthly malaria incidence data collected at the health facility level, using a multilevel mixed-effects negative binomial model. Data were analysed two years before and after the PBO ITN campaign in Ebonyi State (December 2017 to November 2021). A pre-post analysis, with no comparison group, was used to assess the impact of PBO ITNs on human biting rates and indoor resting density in Ebonyi during the high transmission season immediately before and after the PBO ITN campaign. RESULTS: In Ebonyi, PBO ITNs were associated with a 46.7% decrease (95%CI: -51.5, -40.8%; p < 0.001) in malaria case incidence in the 2 years after the PBO ITN distribution compared to a modelled scenario of no ITNs distributed, with a significant decrease from 269.6 predicted cases per 1000 population to 143.6. In Cross River, there was a significant 28.6% increase (95%CI: -10.4, 49.1%; p < 0.001) in malaria case incidence following the standard ITN distribution, with an increase from 71.2 predicted cases per 1000 population to 91.6. In Ebonyi, the human biting rate was 72% lower (IRR: 0.28; 95%CI 0.21, 0.39; p < 0.001) and indoor resting density was 73% lower (IRR: 0.27; 95%CI 0.21, 0.35; p < 0.001) after the PBO ITNs were distributed. CONCLUSIONS: The epidemiological and entomological impact of the PBO ITNs underscore the impact of these ITNs in areas with confirmed pyrethroid resistance. These findings contribute to ongoing research on the impact of new types of ITNs in Nigeria, providing critical evidence for the Nigeria National Malaria Elimination Programme and other countries for future ITN procurement decisions as part of mass ITN campaign planning and malaria programming.

Assessing national vector control micro-planning in Zambia using the 2021 malaria indicator survey.

BACKGROUND: In 2020, the Zambia National Malaria Elimination Centre targeted the distribution of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) and indoor-residual spraying (IRS) campaigns based on sub-district micro-planning, where specified geographical areas at the health facility catchment level were assigned to receive either LLINs or IRS. Using data from the 2021 Malaria Indicator Survey (MIS), the objectives of this analysis were to (1) assess how well the micro-planning was followed in distributing LLINs and IRS, (2) investigate factors that contributed to whether households received what was planned, and (3) investigate how overall coverage observed in the 2021 MIS compared to the 2018 MIS conducted prior to micro-planning. METHODS: Households' receipt of ≥ 1 LLIN, and/or IRS within the past 12 months in the 2021 MIS, was compared against the micro-planning area under which the households fell. GPS points for 3,550 households were overlayed onto digitized micro-planning maps in order to determine what micro-plan the households fell under, and thus whether they received their planned intervention. Mixed-effects regression models were conducted to investigate what factors affected whether these households: (1) received their planned intervention, and (2) received any intervention. Finally, coverage indicators between the 2021 and 2018 MIS were compared. RESULTS: Overall, 60.0% (95%CI 55.4, 64.4) of households under a micro-plan received their assigned intervention, with significantly higher coverage of the planned intervention in LLIN-assigned areas (75.7% [95%CI 69.5, 80.9]) compared to IRS-assigned areas (49.4% [95%CI: 44.4, 54.4]). Regression analysis indicated that households falling under the IRS micro-plan had significantly reduced odds of receiving their planned intervention (OR: 0.34 [95%CI 0.24, 0.48]), and significantly reduced odds of receiving any intervention (OR: 0.51 [95%CI 0.37, 0.72] ), compared to households under the LLIN micro-plan. Comparison between the 2021 and 2018 MIS indicated a 27% reduction in LLIN coverage nationally in 2021, while IRS coverage was similar. Additionally, between 2018 and 2021, there was a 13% increase in households that received neither intervention. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis shows that although the micro-planning strategy adopted in 2020 worked much better for LLIN-assigned areas compared to IRS-assigned areas, there was reduced overall vector control coverage in 2021 compared to 2018 before micro-planning.

Guiding placement of health facilities using multiple malaria criteria and an interactive tool.

BACKGROUND: Access to healthcare is important in controlling malaria burden and, as a result, distance or travel time to health facilities is often a significant predictor in modelling malaria prevalence. Adding new health facilities may reduce overall travel time to health facilities and may decrease malaria transmission. To help guide local decision-makers as they scale up community-based accessibility, the influence of the spatial allocation of new health facilities on malaria prevalence is evaluated in Bunkpurugu-Yunyoo district in northern Ghana. A location-allocation analysis is performed to find optimal locations of new health facilities by separately minimizing three district-wide objectives: malaria prevalence, malaria incidence, and average travel time to health facilities. METHODS: Generalized additive models was used to estimate the relationship between malaria prevalence and travel time to the nearest health facility and other geospatial covariates. The model predictions are then used to calculate the optimisation criteria for the location-allocation analysis. This analysis was performed for two scenarios: adding new health facilities to the existing ones, and a hypothetical scenario in which the community-based healthcare facilities would be allocated anew. An interactive web application was created to facilitate efficient presentation of this analysis and allow users to experiment with their choice of health facility location and optimisation criteria. RESULTS: Using malaria prevalence and travel time as optimisation criteria, two locations that would benefit from new health facilities were identified, regardless of scenarios. Due to the non-linear relationship between malaria incidence and prevalence, the optimal locations chosen based on the incidence criterion tended to be inequitable and was different from those based on the other optimisation criteria. CONCLUSIONS: This study findings underscore the importance of using multiple optimisation criteria in the decision-making process. This analysis and the interactive application can be repurposed for other regions and criteria, bridging the gap between science, models and decisions.

To screen or not to screen: an interactive framework for comparing costs of mass malaria treatment interventions.

BACKGROUND: Mass drug administration and mass-screen-and-treat interventions have been used to interrupt malaria transmission and reduce burden in sub-Saharan Africa. Determining which strategy will reduce costs is an important challenge for implementers; however, model-based simulations and field studies have yet to develop consensus guidelines. Moreover, there is often no way for decision-makers to directly interact with these data and/or models, incorporate local knowledge and expertise, and re-fit parameters to guide their specific goals. METHODS: We propose a general framework for comparing costs associated with mass drug administrations and mass screen and treat based on the possible outcomes of each intervention and the costs associated with each outcome. We then used publicly available data from six countries in western Africa to develop spatial-explicit probabilistic models to estimate intervention costs based on baseline malaria prevalence, diagnostic performance, and sociodemographic factors (age and urbanicity). In addition to comparing specific scenarios, we also develop interactive web applications which allow managers to select data sources and model parameters, and directly input their own cost values. RESULTS: The regional-level models revealed substantial spatial heterogeneity in malaria prevalence and diagnostic test sensitivity and specificity, indicating that a "one-size-fits-all" approach is unlikely to maximize resource allocation. For instance, urban communities in Burkina Faso typically had lower prevalence rates compared to rural communities (0.151 versus 0.383, respectively) as well as lower diagnostic sensitivity (0.699 versus 0.862, respectively); however, there was still substantial regional variation. Adjusting the cost associated with false negative diagnostic results to included additional costs, such as delayed treated and potential lost wages, undermined the overall costs associated with MSAT. CONCLUSIONS: The observed spatial variability and dependence on specified cost values support not only the need for location-specific intervention approaches but also the need to move beyond standard modeling approaches and towards interactive tools which allow implementers to engage directly with data and models. We believe that the framework demonstrated in this article will help connect modeling efforts and stakeholders in order to promote data-driven decision-making for the effective management of malaria, as well as other diseases.

Global estimation of anti-malarial drug effectiveness for the treatment of uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria 1991-2019.

BACKGROUND: Anti-malarial drugs play a critical role in reducing malaria morbidity and mortality, but their role is mediated by their effectiveness. Effectiveness is defined as the probability that an anti-malarial drug will successfully treat an individual infected with malaria parasites under routine health care delivery system. Anti-malarial drug effectiveness (AmE) is influenced by drug resistance, drug quality, health system quality, and patient adherence to drug use; its influence on malaria burden varies through space and time. METHODS: This study uses data from 232 efficacy trials comprised of 86,776 infected individuals to estimate the artemisinin-based and non-artemisinin-based AmE for treating falciparum malaria between 1991 and 2019. Bayesian spatiotemporal models were fitted and used to predict effectiveness at the pixel-level (5 km × 5 km). The median and interquartile ranges (IQR) of AmE are presented for all malaria-endemic countries. RESULTS: The global effectiveness of artemisinin-based drugs was 67.4% (IQR: 33.3-75.8), 70.1% (43.6-76.0) and 71.8% (46.9-76.4) for the 1991-2000, 2006-2010, and 2016-2019 periods, respectively. Countries in central Africa, a few in South America, and in the Asian region faced the challenge of lower effectiveness of artemisinin-based anti-malarials. However, improvements were seen after 2016, leaving only a few hotspots in Southeast Asia where resistance to artemisinin and partner drugs is currently problematic and in the central Africa where socio-demographic challenges limit effectiveness. The use of artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) with a competent partner drug and having multiple ACT as first-line treatment choice sustained high levels of effectiveness. High levels of access to healthcare, human resource capacity, education, and proximity to cities were associated with increased effectiveness. Effectiveness of non-artemisinin-based drugs was much lower than that of artemisinin-based with no improvement over time: 52.3% (17.9-74.9) for 1991-2000 and 55.5% (27.1-73.4) for 2011-2015. Overall, AmE for artemisinin-based and non-artemisinin-based drugs were, respectively, 29.6 and 36% below clinical efficacy as measured in anti-malarial drug trials. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides evidence that health system performance, drug quality and patient adherence influence the effectiveness of anti-malarials used in treating uncomplicated falciparum malaria. These results provide guidance to countries' treatment practises and are critical inputs for malaria prevalence and incidence models used to estimate national level malaria burden.

Characterizing local-scale heterogeneity of malaria risk: a case study in Bunkpurugu-Yunyoo district in northern Ghana.

BACKGROUND: Bayesian methods have been used to generate country-level and global maps of malaria prevalence. With increasing availability of detailed malaria surveillance data, these methodologies can also be used to identify fine-scale heterogeneity of malaria parasitaemia for operational prevention and control of malaria. METHODS: In this article, a Bayesian geostatistical model was applied to six malaria parasitaemia surveys conducted during rainy and dry seasons between November 2010 and 2013 to characterize the micro-scale spatial heterogeneity of malaria risk in northern Ghana. RESULTS: The geostatistical model showed substantial spatial heterogeneity, with malaria parasite prevalence varying between 19 and 90%, and revealing a northeast to southwest gradient of predicted risk. The spatial distribution of prevalence was heavily influenced by two modest urban centres, with a substantially lower prevalence in urban centres compared to rural areas. Although strong seasonal variations were observed, spatial malaria prevalence patterns did not change substantially from year to year. Furthermore, independent surveillance data suggested that the model had a relatively good predictive performance when extrapolated to a neighbouring district. CONCLUSIONS: This high variability in malaria prevalence is striking, given that this small area (approximately 30 km × 40 km) was purportedly homogeneous based on country-level spatial analysis, suggesting that fine-scale parasitaemia data might be critical to guide district-level programmatic efforts to prevent and control malaria. Extrapolations results suggest that fine-scale parasitaemia data can be useful for spatial predictions in neighbouring unsampled districts and does not have to be collected every year to aid district-level operations, helping to alleviate concerns regarding the cost of fine-scale data collection.

Detecting local risk factors for residual malaria in northern Ghana using Bayesian model averaging.

BACKGROUND: There is a need for comprehensive evaluations of the underlying local factors that contribute to residual malaria in sub-Saharan Africa. However, it is difficult to compare the wide array of demographic, socio-economic, and environmental variables associated with malaria transmission using standard statistical approaches while accounting for seasonal differences and nonlinear relationships. This article uses a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) approach for identifying and comparing potential risk and protective factors associated with residual malaria. RESULTS: The relative influence of a comprehensive set of demographic, socio-economic, environmental, and malaria intervention variables on malaria prevalence were modelled using BMA for variable selection. Data were collected in Bunkpurugu-Yunyoo, a rural district in northeast Ghana that experiences holoendemic seasonal malaria transmission, over six biannual surveys from 2010 to 2013. A total of 10,022 children between the ages 6 to 59 months were used in the analysis. Multiple models were developed to identify important risk and protective factors, accounting for seasonal patterns and nonlinear relationships. These models revealed pronounced nonlinear associations between malaria risk and distance from the nearest urban centre and health facility. Furthermore, the association between malaria risk and age and some ethnic groups was significantly different in the rainy and dry seasons. BMA outperformed other commonly used regression approaches in out-of-sample predictive ability using a season-to-season validation approach. CONCLUSIONS: This modelling framework offers an alternative approach to disease risk factor analysis that generates interpretable models, can reveal complex, nonlinear relationships, incorporates uncertainty in model selection, and produces accurate predictions. Certain modelling applications, such as designing targeted local interventions, require more sophisticated statistical methods which are capable of handling a wide range of relevant data while maintaining interpretability and predictive performance, and directly characterize uncertainty. To this end, BMA represents a valuable tool for constructing more informative models for understanding risk factors for malaria, as well as other vector-borne and environmentally mediated diseases.

Spatial heterogeneity can undermine the effectiveness of country-wide test and treat policy for malaria: a case study from Burkina Faso.

BACKGROUND: Considerable debate has arisen regarding the appropriateness of the test and treat malaria policy broadly recommended by the World Health Organization. While presumptive treatment has important drawbacks, the effectiveness of the test and treat policy can vary considerably across regions, depending on several factors such as baseline malaria prevalence and rapid diagnostic test (RDT) performance. METHODS: To compare presumptive treatment with test and treat, generalized linear mixed effects models were fitted to data from 6510 children under five years of age from Burkina Faso's 2010 Demographic and Health Survey. RESULTS: The statistical model results revealed substantial regional variation in baseline malaria prevalence (i.e., pre-test prevalence) and RDT performance. As a result, a child with a positive RDT result in one region can have the same malaria infection probability as a demographically similar child with a negative RDT result in another region. These findings indicate that a test and treat policy might be reasonable in some settings, but may be undermined in others due to the high proportion of false negatives. CONCLUSIONS: High spatial variability can substantially reduce the effectiveness of a national level test and treat malaria policy. In these cases, region-specific guidelines for malaria diagnosis and treatment may need to be formulated. Based on the statistical model results, proof-of-concept, web-based tools were created that can aid in the development of these region-specific guidelines and may improve current malaria-related policy in Burkina Faso.

Bias in logistic regression due to imperfect diagnostic test results and practical correction approaches.

BACKGROUND: Logistic regression is a statistical model widely used in cross-sectional and cohort studies to identify and quantify the effects of potential disease risk factors. However, the impact of imperfect tests on adjusted odds ratios (and thus on the identification of risk factors) is under-appreciated. The purpose of this article is to draw attention to the problem associated with modelling imperfect diagnostic tests, and propose simple Bayesian models to adequately address this issue. METHODS: A systematic literature review was conducted to determine the proportion of malaria studies that appropriately accounted for false-negatives/false-positives in a logistic regression setting. Inference from the standard logistic regression was also compared with that from three proposed Bayesian models using simulations and malaria data from the western Brazilian Amazon. RESULTS: A systematic literature review suggests that malaria epidemiologists are largely unaware of the problem of using logistic regression to model imperfect diagnostic test results. Simulation results reveal that statistical inference can be substantially improved when using the proposed Bayesian models versus the standard logistic regression. Finally, analysis of original malaria data with one of the proposed Bayesian models reveals that microscopy sensitivity is strongly influenced by how long people have lived in the study region, and an important risk factor (i.e., participation in forest extractivism) is identified that would have been missed by standard logistic regression. CONCLUSION: Given the numerous diagnostic methods employed by malaria researchers and the ubiquitous use of logistic regression to model the results of these diagnostic tests, this paper provides critical guidelines to improve data analysis practice in the presence of misclassification error. Easy-to-use code that can be readily adapted to WinBUGS is provided, enabling straightforward implementation of the proposed Bayesian models.

Free-Living and Particle-Associated Bacterioplankton in Large Rivers of the Mississippi River Basin Demonstrate Biogeographic Patterns.

The different drainage basins of large rivers such as the Mississippi River represent interesting systems in which to study patterns in freshwater microbial biogeography. Spatial variability in bacterioplankton communities in six major rivers (the Upper Mississippi, Missouri, Illinois, Ohio, Tennessee, and Arkansas) of the Mississippi River Basin was characterized using Ion Torrent 16S rRNA amplicon sequencing. When all systems were combined, particle-associated (>3 µm) bacterial assemblages were found to be different from free-living bacterioplankton in terms of overall community structure, partly because of differences in the proportional abundance of sequences affiliated with major bacterial lineages (Alphaproteobacteria, Cyanobacteria, and Planctomycetes). Both particle-associated and free-living communities ordinated by river system, a pattern that was apparent even after rare sequences or those affiliated with Cyanobacteria were removed from the analyses. Ordination of samples by river system correlated with environmental characteristics of each river, such as nutrient status and turbidity. Communities in the Upper Mississippi and the Missouri and in the Ohio and the Tennessee, pairs of rivers that join each other, contained similar taxa in terms of presence-absence data but differed in the proportional abundance of major lineages. The most common sequence types detected in particle-associated communities were picocyanobacteria in the Synechococcus/Prochlorococcus/Cyanobium (Syn/Pro) clade, while free-living communities also contained a high proportion of LD12 (SAR11/Pelagibacter)-like Alphaproteobacteria. This research shows that while different tributaries of large river systems such as the Mississippi River harbor distinct bacterioplankton communities, there is also microhabitat variation such as that between free-living and particle-associated assemblages.

Improving disaggregation models of malaria incidence by ensembling non-linear models of prevalence.

Maps of disease burden are a core tool needed for the control and elimination of malaria. Reliable routine surveillance data of malaria incidence, typically aggregated to administrative units, is becoming more widely available. Disaggregation regression is an important model framework for estimating high resolution risk maps from aggregated data. However, the aggregation of incidence over large, heterogeneous areas means that these data are underpowered for estimating complex, non-linear models. In contrast, prevalence point-surveys are directly linked to local environmental conditions but are not common in many areas of the world. Here, we train multiple non-linear, machine learning models on Plasmodium falciparum prevalence point-surveys. We then ensemble the predictions from these machine learning models with a disaggregation regression model that uses aggregated malaria incidences as response data. We find that using a disaggregation regression model to combine predictions from machine learning models improves model accuracy relative to a baseline model.

Youth in the study of comparative physiology: insights from demography in the wild.

Of all the properties of individual animals of interest to comparative physiologists, age and stage of development are among the most consequential. In a natural population of any species, the survivorship curve is an important determinant of the relative abundances of ages and stages of development. Demography, thus, has significant implications for the study of comparative physiology. When Edward Deevey published his influential summary of survivorship in animal populations in the wild seven decades ago, he emphasized "serious deficiencies" because survivorship curves for natural populations at the time did not include data on the earliest life stages. Such data have accumulated over intervening years. We survey, for the first time, empirical knowledge of early-age survivorship in populations of most major animal groups in a state of nature. Despite wide variation, it is almost universally true that > 50% of newly born or hatched individuals die before the onset of sexual maturity, even in species commonly assumed to exhibit high early-age survivorship. These demographic facts are important considerations for studies in comparative and environmental physiology whether physiologists (i) aim to elucidate function throughout the life cycle, including both early stages and adults, or (ii) focus on adults (in which case early-age survivorship can potentially affect adult characteristics through selection or epigenesis). We establish that Deevey's Type I curve (which applies to species with relatively limited early mortality) has few or no actual analogs in the real, natural world.

Maps and metrics of insecticide-treated net access, use, and nets-per-capita in Africa from 2000-2020.

Insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) are one of the most widespread and impactful malaria interventions in Africa, yet a spatially-resolved time series of ITN coverage has never been published. Using data from multiple sources, we generate high-resolution maps of ITN access, use, and nets-per-capita annually from 2000 to 2020 across the 40 highest-burden African countries. Our findings support several existing hypotheses: that use is high among those with access, that nets are discarded more quickly than official policy presumes, and that effectively distributing nets grows more difficult as coverage increases. The primary driving factors behind these findings are most likely strong cultural and social messaging around the importance of net use, low physical net durability, and a mixture of inherent commodity distribution challenges and less-than-optimal net allocation policies, respectively. These results can inform both policy decisions and downstream malaria analyses.

Indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on malaria intervention coverage, morbidity, and mortality in Africa: a geospatial modelling analysis.

BACKGROUND: Substantial progress has been made in reducing the burden of malaria in Africa since 2000, but those gains could be jeopardised if the COVID-19 pandemic affects the availability of key malaria control interventions. The aim of this study was to evaluate plausible effects on malaria incidence and mortality under different levels of disruption to malaria control. METHODS: Using an established set of spatiotemporal Bayesian geostatistical models, we generated geospatial estimates across malaria-endemic African countries of the clinical case incidence and mortality of malaria, incorporating an updated database of parasite rate surveys, insecticide-treated net (ITN) coverage, and effective treatment rates. We established a baseline estimate for the anticipated malaria burden in Africa in the absence of COVID-19-related disruptions, and repeated the analysis for nine hypothetical scenarios in which effective treatment with an antimalarial drug and distribution of ITNs (both through routine channels and mass campaigns) were reduced to varying extents. FINDINGS: We estimated 215·2 (95% uncertainty interval 143·7-311·6) million cases and 386·4 (307·8-497·8) thousand deaths across malaria-endemic African countries in 2020 in our baseline scenario of undisrupted intervention coverage. With greater reductions in access to effective antimalarial drug treatment, our model predicted increasing numbers of cases and deaths: 224·1 (148·7-326·8) million cases and 487·9 (385·3-634·6) thousand deaths with a 25% reduction in antimalarial drug coverage; 233·1 (153·7-342·5) million cases and 597·4 (468·0-784·4) thousand deaths with a 50% reduction; and 242·3 (158·7-358·8) million cases and 715·2 (556·4-947·9) thousand deaths with a 75% reduction. Halting planned 2020 ITN mass distribution campaigns and reducing routine ITN distributions by 25%-75% also increased malaria burden to a total of 230·5 (151·6-343·3) million cases and 411·7 (322·8-545·5) thousand deaths with a 25% reduction; 232·8 (152·3-345·9) million cases and 415·5 (324·3-549·4) thousand deaths with a 50% reduction; and 234·0 (152·9-348·4) million cases and 417·6 (325·5-553·1) thousand deaths with a 75% reduction. When ITN coverage and antimalarial drug coverage were synchronously reduced, malaria burden increased to 240·5 (156·5-358·2) million cases and 520·9 (404·1-691·9) thousand deaths with a 25% reduction; 251·0 (162·2-377·0) million cases and 640·2 (492·0-856·7) thousand deaths with a 50% reduction; and 261·6 (167·7-396·8) million cases and 768·6 (586·1-1038·7) thousand deaths with a 75% reduction. INTERPRETATION: Under pessimistic scenarios, COVID-19-related disruption to malaria control in Africa could almost double malaria mortality in 2020, and potentially lead to even greater increases in subsequent years. To avoid a reversal of two decades of progress against malaria, averting this public health disaster must remain an integrated priority alongside the response to COVID-19. FUNDING: Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation; Channel 7 Telethon Trust, Western Australia.

Timescales of variation in diversity and production of bacterioplankton assemblages in the Lower Mississippi River.

Rivers are characterized by rapid and continuous one-way directional fluxes of flowing, aqueous habitat, chemicals, suspended particles, and resident plankton. Therefore, at any particular location in such systems there is the potential for continuous, and possibly abrupt, changes in diversity and metabolic activities of suspended biota. As microorganisms are the principal catalysts of organic matter degradation and nutrient cycling in rivers, examination of their assemblage dynamics is fundamental to understanding system-level biogeochemical patterns and processes. However, there is little known of the dynamics of microbial assemblage composition or production of large rivers along a time interval gradient. We quantified variation in alpha and beta diversity and production of particle-associated and free-living bacterioplankton assemblages collected at a single site on the Lower Mississippi River (LMR), the final segment of the largest river system in North America. Samples were collected at timescales ranging from days to weeks to months up to a year. For both alpha and beta diversity, there were similar patterns of temporal variation in particle-associated and free-living assemblages. Alpha diversity, while always higher on particles, varied as much at a daily as at a monthly timescale. Beta diversity, in contrast, gradually increased with time interval of sampling, peaking between samples collected 180 days apart, before gradually declining between samples collected up to one year apart. The primary environmental driver of the temporal pattern in beta diversity was temperature, followed by dissolved nitrogen and chlorophyll a concentrations. Particle-associated bacterial production corresponded strongly to temperature, while free-living production was much lower and constant over time. We conclude that particle-associated and free-living bacterioplankton assemblages of the LMR vary in richness, composition, and production at distinct timescales in response to differing sets of environmental factors. This is the first temporal longitudinal study of microbial assemblage structure and dynamics in the LMR.

Spatiotemporal mapping of malaria prevalence in Madagascar using routine surveillance and health survey data.

Malaria transmission in Madagascar is highly heterogeneous, exhibiting spatial, seasonal and long-term trends. Previous efforts to map malaria risk in Madagascar used prevalence data from Malaria Indicator Surveys. These cross-sectional surveys, conducted during the high transmission season most recently in 2013 and 2016, provide nationally representative prevalence data but cover relatively short time frames. Conversely, monthly case data are collected at health facilities but suffer from biases, including incomplete reporting and low rates of treatment seeking. We combined survey and case data to make monthly maps of prevalence between 2013 and 2016. Health facility catchment populations were estimated to produce incidence rates from the case data. Smoothed incidence surfaces, environmental and socioeconomic covariates, and survey data informed a Bayesian prevalence model, in which a flexible incidence-to-prevalence relationship was learned. Modelled spatial trends were consistent over time, with highest prevalence in the coastal regions and low prevalence in the highlands and desert south. Prevalence was lowest in 2014 and peaked in 2015 and seasonality was widely observed, including in some lower transmission regions. These trends highlight the utility of monthly prevalence estimates over the four year period. By combining survey and case data using this two-step modelling approach, we were able to take advantage of the relative strengths of each metric while accounting for potential bias in the case data. Similar modelling approaches combining large datasets of different malaria metrics may be applicable across sub-Saharan Africa.

Patterns of variation in diversity of the Mississippi river microbiome over 1,300 kilometers.

We examined the downriver patterns of variation in taxonomic diversity of the Mississippi River bacterioplankton microbiome along 1,300 river kilometers, or approximately one third the total length of the river. The study section included portions of the Upper, Middle, and Lower Mississippi River, confluences with five tributaries draining distinct sub-basins, river cities, and extended stretches without major inputs to the Mississippi. The composition and proportional abundance of dominant bacterial phyla was distinct for free-living and particle-associated cells, and constant along the entire reach, except for a substantial but transient disturbance near the city of Memphis, Tennessee. At a finer scale of taxonomic resolution (operational taxonomic units, OTUs), however, there were notable patterns in downriver variation in bacterial community alpha diversity (richness within a site) and beta diversity (variation in composition among sites). There was a strong and steady increase downriver in alpha diversity of OTUs on suspended particles, suggesting an increase in particle niche heterogeneity, and/or particle colonization. Relatively large shifts in beta diversity of free-living and particle-associated communities occurred following major tributary confluences and transiently at Memphis, while in long stretches between these points diversity typically varied more gradually. We conclude that the Mississippi River possesses a bacterioplankton microbiome distinct in diversity from other large river microbiomes in the Mississippi River Basin, that at major river confluences or urban point sources its OTU diversity may shift abruptly and substantially, presumably by immigration of distinct external microbiomes, but that where environmental conditions are more stable along the downriver gradient, microbiome diversity tends to vary gradually, presumably by a process of successional change in community composition.

Determination of microbial extracellular enzyme activity in waters, soils, and sediments using high throughput microplate assays.

Much of the nutrient cycling and carbon processing in natural environments occurs through the activity of extracellular enzymes released by microorganisms. Thus, measurement of the activity of these extracellular enzymes can give insights into the rates of ecosystem level processes, such as organic matter decomposition or nitrogen and phosphorus mineralization. Assays of extracellular enzyme activity in environmental samples typically involve exposing the samples to artificial colorimetric or fluorometric substrates and tracking the rate of substrate hydrolysis. Here we describe microplate based methods for these procedures that allow the analysis of large numbers of samples within a short time frame. Samples are allowed to react with artificial substrates within 96-well microplates or deep well microplate blocks, and enzyme activity is subsequently determined by absorption or fluorescence of the resulting end product using a typical microplate reader or fluorometer. Such high throughput procedures not only facilitate comparisons between spatially separate sites or ecosystems, but also substantially reduce the cost of such assays by reducing overall reagent volumes needed per sample.