Demographic science aids in understanding the spread and fatality rates of COVID-19.

Governments around the world must rapidly mobilize and make difficult policy decisions to mitigate the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Because deaths have been concentrated at older ages, we highlight the important role of demography, particularly, how the age structure of a population may help explain differences in fatality rates across countries and how transmission unfolds. We examine the role of age structure in deaths thus far in Italy and South Korea and illustrate how the pandemic could unfold in populations with similar population sizes but different age structures, showing a dramatically higher burden of mortality in countries with older versus younger populations. This powerful interaction of demography and current age-specific mortality for COVID-19 suggests that social distancing and other policies to slow transmission should consider the age composition of local and national contexts as well as intergenerational interactions. We also call for countries to provide case and fatality data disaggregated by age and sex to improve real-time targeted forecasting of hospitalization and critical care needs.

Population Studies at 75 years: An empirical review.

Population Studies advances research on fertility, mortality, family, migration, methods, policy, and beyond, yet it lacks a recent, rigorous review. We examine all papers published between 1947 and 2020 (N = 1,901) and their authors, using natural language processing, social network analysis, and mixed methods that combine unsupervised machine learning with qualitative coding. After providing a brief history, we map the evolution in authorship and papers towards shorter, multi-authored papers, also finding that females comprise 33.5 per cent of authorship across the period under study, with varied sex ratios across topics. Most papers examine fertility, mortality, and family, studying groups and change, but topics vary over time. Children are rarely studied, and research on women focuses on family planning, fertility decline, and unions, whereas key domains for research on men are migration, historical demography (war, famine), and employment. Research on Africa and Asia focuses on family planning, with work on fertility decline concentrated on North America and Europe, consistent with theories of demographic transition. Our resulting discussion identifies future directions for demographic research.

Forecasting spatial, socioeconomic and demographic variation in COVID-19 health care demand in England and Wales.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 poses one of the most profound public health crises for a hundred years. As of mid-May 2020, across the world, almost 300,000 deaths and over 4 million confirmed cases were registered. Reaching over 30,000 deaths by early May, the UK had the highest number of recorded deaths in Europe, second in the world only to the USA. Hospitalization and death from COVID-19 have been linked to demographic and socioeconomic variation. Since this varies strongly by location, there is an urgent need to analyse the mismatch between health care demand and supply at the local level. As lockdown measures ease, reinfection may vary by area, necessitating a real-time tool for local and regional authorities to anticipate demand. METHODS: Combining census estimates and hospital capacity data from ONS and NHS at the Administrative Region, Ceremonial County (CC), Clinical Commissioning Group (CCG) and Lower Layer Super Output Area (LSOA) level from England and Wales, we calculate the number of individuals at risk of COVID-19 hospitalization. Combining multiple sources, we produce geospatial risk maps on an online dashboard that dynamically illustrate how the pre-crisis health system capacity matches local variations in hospitalization risk related to age, social deprivation, population density and ethnicity, also adjusting for the overall infection rate and hospital capacity. RESULTS: By providing fine-grained estimates of expected hospitalization, we identify areas that face higher disproportionate health care burdens due to COVID-19, with respect to pre-crisis levels of hospital bed capacity. Including additional risks beyond age-composition of the area such as social deprivation, race/ethnic composition and population density offers a further nuanced identification of areas with disproportionate health care demands. CONCLUSIONS: Areas face disproportionate risks for COVID-19 hospitalization pressures due to their socioeconomic differences and the demographic composition of their populations. Our flexible online dashboard allows policy-makers and health officials to monitor and evaluate potential health care demand at a granular level as the infection rate and hospital capacity changes throughout the course of this pandemic. This agile knowledge is invaluable to tackle the enormous logistical challenges to re-allocate resources and target susceptible areas for aggressive testing and tracing to mitigate transmission.

Better governance, better access: practising responsible data sharing in the METADAC governance infrastructure.

BACKGROUND: Genomic and biosocial research data about individuals is rapidly proliferating, bringing the potential for novel opportunities for data integration and use. The scale, pace and novelty of these applications raise a number of urgent sociotechnical, ethical and legal questions, including optimal methods of data storage, management and access. Although the open science movement advocates unfettered access to research data, many of the UK's longitudinal cohort studies operate systems of managed data access, in which access is governed by legal and ethical agreements between stewards of research datasets and researchers wishing to make use of them. Amongst other things, these agreements aim to respect the reasonable expectations of the research participants who provided data and samples, as expressed in the consent process. Arguably, responsible data management and governance of data and sample use are foundational to the consent process in longitudinal studies and are an important source of trustworthiness in the eyes of those who contribute data to genomic and biosocial research. METHODS: This paper presents an ethnographic case study exploring the foundational principles of a governance infrastructure for Managing Ethico-social, Technical and Administrative issues in Data ACcess (METADAC), which are operationalised through a committee known as the METADAC Access Committee. METADAC governs access to phenotype, genotype and 'omic' data and samples from five UK longitudinal studies. FINDINGS: Using the example of METADAC, we argue that three key structural features are foundational for practising responsible data sharing: independence and transparency; interdisciplinarity; and participant-centric decision-making. We observe that the international research community is proactively working towards optimising the use of research data, integrating/linking these data with routine data generated by health and social care services and other administrative data services to improve the analysis, interpretation and utility of these data. The governance of these new complex data assemblages will require a range of expertise from across a number of domains and disciplines, including that of study participants. Human-mediated decision-making bodies will be central to ensuring achievable, reasoned and responsible decisions about the use of these data; the METADAC model described in this paper provides an example of how this could be realised.

Educational attainment and allostatic load in later life: Evidence using genetic markers.

Education is strongly correlated with health outcomes in older adulthood. Whether the impact of education expansion improves health remains unclear due to a lack of clarity over the causal relationship. Previous health research within the social sciences has tended to use specific activities of daily living or self-reported health status. This study uses a broader and objective health measure - allostatic load (AL) - to take into consideration the exposures that accumulate throughout the life course. This paper applies a Mendelian Randomization (MR) approach to identify causality in relation to education on health as measured by AL. Using the Health and Retirement Study 2008 (N=3935), we adopt a polygenic score built from genetic variants associated with years of education. To test whether our analyses violate the exclusion assumption, we further run MR Egger regressions to test for bias from pleiotropy. We also explore the potential pathways between education and AL, including smoking, drinking, marital length, health insurance, etc. Using this genetic instrument, we find a 0.3 unit (19% of a standard deviation) reduction in AL per year of schooling. The effect is mainly driven by BMI and Hba1c. Smoking and marital stability are two potential pathways that also causally influenced by education. If our main and sensitivity analyses are valid, the results find support that a higher level of education is causally related to better health in older adulthood.

Cognitive development in children up to age 11 years born after ART-a longitudinal cohort study.

STUDY QUESTION: How does the cognitive development of children conceived after ART (IVF and ICSI) - measured as cognitive skills at age 3, 5, 7 and 11 years - differ over time from those born after natural conception (NC)? SUMMARY ANSWER: Improved measures of cognitive development up to age 5 years were recorded in children conceived with ART compared to NC, which attenuates by 11 years, with ART children still scoring slightly better than NC children. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Results on the cognitive outcomes of children conceived after ART have been highly contradictory. Some have shown that ART children have an impaired behavioural, socio-emotional and cognitive development and higher risk of mental disorders. Others have reported no increased risk or difference. Cognitive development has not been previously examined using latent growth curve models from ages 3 to 11 years, also including appropriate attention to confounding parental characteristics. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: Longitudinal data for the first five waves (2000-2012) of the UK Millennium Cohort Study were used, which is a two-stage sample of all infants born in 2000-2001 and resident in the UK at 9 months of age, drawn from the Department of Social Security Child Benefit Registers. A final sample of N = 15 218 children (125 IVF and 61 ICSI), from 14 816 families was used. Information was available for all waves for 8298 children. Four additional follow-up surveys were conducted in 2003, 2005, 2007 and 2012. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: Our sample includes children born within a union (married or cohabiting parents) and where information on cognitive scores was available for at least two measurement points. Cognitive development was assessed with the British Ability Scales. At age 3 and 5 years (wave 2 and 3), children completed the naming vocabulary component, which measures expressive verbal ability. At age 7 years (wave 4), verbal cognitive abilities were assessed through the word reading test, and at age 11 years (wave 5) through a verbal similarity test. Two-tailed Student's t-tests examined differences between ART and NC groups. Growth curve models (random-coefficient, latent trajectory models) were used to study the effect of ART, confounding parental characteristics and health outcomes at birth, both at a baseline level of cognitive ability at age 3 years and on its growth rate. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: At age 3 and 5 years, children conceived with the aid of ART have higher verbal cognitive abilities than NC children (P < 0.001) but this consistently decreases over time and diminishes by age 11 years. Parental environment and resources are pivotal in children's cognitive development. LIMITATIONS, REASON FOR CAUTION: The sample size of the ART cohort of children is small across each time period (N = 150-180) in comparison with NC children (N = 10 496-11 955). Owing to a limited sample size, we are also unable to compare IVF versus ICSI treatment. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: With the increasing use of IVF and ICSI, these results indicate that there are no detrimental effects on children's early cognitive outcomes up to age 11 years, and highlight the importance of parental characteristics. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): Funding for this project was provided by the European Union's Seventh Framework Program (FP7 2007-2013) (No. 320116 Families and Societies), ESRC/NCRM SOCGEN Grant (ES/N0011856/1) and the SOCIOGENOME ERC Consolidator Grant (ERC-2013-CoG-615603) (to M.C.M.). The authors have no competing interests to declare. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: N/A.

Cultural determinants influence assisted reproduction usage in Europe more than economic and demographic factors.

STUDY QUESTION: To what extent do financial, demographic and cultural determinants explain the vast cross-national differences in ART treatments in Europe? SUMMARY ANSWER: The normative cultural acceptance of ART is a major driver of ART treatments in Europe, above and beyond differences in country wealth, demographic aspects and religious composition. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: There are vast differences in the number of ART treatments across European countries, which are to some extent related to country affluence, regulation, and insurance coverage and costs. The role and impact of cultural and normative factors has not been explored in a larger cross-national comparison. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: A descriptive and comparative cross-national analysis of ART treatment prevalence in over 30 European countries in 2010, with the outcome defined as the total number of ART cycles per million women of reproductive age (15-44 years). Data is drawn from multiple sources (ICMART, US Census Bureau Library, World Bank, Barro-Lee Educational Attainment Dataset, IFFS Surveillance reports, European Values Study and World Religion Database). PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: Our sample includes data from 35 European countries, where we describe the associations between demographic and cultural factors and the prevalence of ART treatments. Bivariate correlation and ordinary least squares multiple regression analysis serves to establish the relationships between predictor variables and the number of ART treatments per million women aged 15-44 years in a country. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: A one-percent increase in national GDP is associated with 382 (95% CI: 177-587) additional ART procedures per million women of reproductive age, yet this effect is reduced to 99 (-92 to 290) treatments once cultural values and demographic factors are accounted for. In our fully adjusted model, normative cultural values measuring the acceptability of ART are the strongest predictor of ART usage, with a one-point increase of average approval in a country associated with 276 (167-385) additional ART treatments per million women of reproductive age. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: Findings are based on a cross-sectional, cross-national analysis, making formal tests of causality impossible and prohibiting inferences to the individual level. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: Results indicate that reproductive health policy should openly acknowledge the importance of cultural norms in informally shaping and regulating the wider availability of ART treatment. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): Funding for this project was provided by the European Union's Seventh Framework Program (FP7 2007-2013) (No. 320116 Families and Societies), European Research Council for the SOCIOGENOME Consolidator Grant (ERC-2013-CoG-615603) and the Wellcome Trust Institutional Strategic Support Fund (all to M.C.M.). The authors have no conflicts of interest to declare. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: N/A.

What Explains the Heritability of Completed Fertility? Evidence from Two Large Twin Studies.

In modern societies, individual differences in completed fertility are linked with genotypic differences between individuals. Explaining the heritability of completed fertility has been inconclusive, with alternative explanations centering on family formation timing, pursuit of education, or other psychological traits. We use the twin subsample from the Midlife Development in the United States study and the TwinsUK study to examine these issues. In total, 2606 adult twin pairs reported on their completed fertility, age at first birth and marriage, level of education, Big Five personality traits, and cognitive ability. Quantitative genetic Cholesky models were used to partition the variance in completed fertility into genetic and environmental variance that is shared with other phenotypes and residual variance. Genetic influences on completed fertility are strongly related to family formation timing and less strongly, but significantly, with psychological traits. Multivariate models indicate that family formation, demographic, and psychological phenotypes leave no residual genetic variance in completed fertility in either dataset. Results are largely consistent across U.S. and U.K. sociocultural contexts.

Genetic influence on age at first birth of female twins born in the UK, 1919-68.

Using a sample of monozygotic (945, 42 per cent) and dizygotic (1,329, 58 per cent) twin pairs born 1919-68 in the UK, we applied innovative tobit models to investigate genetic and environmental influences on age at first birth (AFB). We found that a substantial part (40 per cent) of the variation in AFB is caused by latent family characteristics. Genetic dispositions (26 per cent) play a more important role than the shared environment of siblings (14 per cent), with the non-shared environment/measurement error having the strongest influence (60 per cent). Like previous studies, this study reveals marked changes in estimates over time, and supports the idea that environmental constraints (war or economic crisis) suppress and normative freedom (sexual revolution) promotes the activation of genetic predispositions that affect fertility. We show that the exclusion of censored information (i.e., on the childless) by previous studies biased their results.

The Biodemography of Fertility: A Review and Future Research Frontiers.

The social sciences have been reticent to integrate a biodemographic approach to the study of fertility choice and behaviour, resulting in theories and findings that are largely socially-deterministic. The aim of this paper is to first reflect on reasons for this lack of integration, provide a review of previous examinations, take stock of what we have learned until now and propose future research frontiers. We review the early foundations of proximate determinants followed by behavioural genetic (family and twin) studies that isolated the extent of genetic influence on fertility traits. We then discuss research that considers gene and environment interaction and the importance of cohort and country-specific estimates, followed by multivariate models that explore motivational precursors to fertility and education. The next section on molecular genetics reviews fertility-related candidate gene studies and their shortcomings and on-going work on genome wide association studies. Work in evolutionary anthropology and biology is then briefly examined, focusing on evidence for natural selection. Biological and genetic factors are relevant in explaining and predicting fertility traits, with socio-environmental factors and their interaction still key in understanding outcomes. Studying the interplay between genes and the environment, new data sources and integration of new methods will be central to understanding and predicting future fertility trends.

Evidence from Finland and Sweden on the relationship between early-life diseases and lifetime childlessness in men and women.

The percentage of people without children over their lifetime is approximately 25% in men and 20% in women. Individual diseases have been linked to childlessness, mostly in women, yet we lack a comprehensive picture of the effect of early-life diseases on lifetime childlessness. We examined all individuals born in 1956-1968 (men) and 1956-1973 (women) in Finland (n = 1,035,928) and Sweden (n = 1,509,092) to the completion of their reproductive lifespan in 2018. Leveraging nationwide registers, we associated sociodemographic and reproductive information with 414 diseases across 16 categories, using a population and matched-pair case-control design of siblings discordant for childlessness (71,524 full sisters and 77,622 full brothers). The strongest associations were mental-behavioural disorders (particularly among men), congenital anomalies and endocrine-nutritional-metabolic disorders (strongest among women). We identified new associations for inflammatory and autoimmune diseases. Associations were dependent on age at onset and mediated by singlehood and education. This evidence can be used to understand how disease contributes to involuntary childlessness.

Gene-x-environment analysis supports protective effects of eveningness chronotype on self-reported and actigraphy-derived sleep duration among those who always work night shifts in the UK Biobank.

Previous research has linked having an eveningness chronotype with a higher tolerance for night shift work, suggesting the ability to work nights without health consequences may partially depend upon having a circadian clock optimized for these times. As chronotypes entrain over time to environmental cues, it remains unclear whether higher relative eveningness among healthy night workers reflects a moderating or mediating effect of chronotype on health. We address these concerns conducting a genome-wide association study and utilizing a polygenic score (PGS) for eveningness as a time-invariant measure of chronotype. On a sample of 53 211 workers in the UK Biobank (2006-2018), we focus on the effects of night shift work on sleep duration, a channel through which night shift work adversely affects health. We ask whether a higher predisposition toward eveningness promotes night shift work tolerance. Results indicate that regular night shift work is associated with a 13-minute (3.5%) reduction in self-reported sleep per night relative to those who never work these hours (95% confidence interval [CI] = -17:01, -8:36). We find that eveningness has a strong protective effect on night workers: a one-SD increase in the PGS is associated with a 4-minute (28%) reduction in the night shift work sleep penalty per night (CI = 0:10, 7:04). This protective effect is pronounced for those working the longest hours. Consistent patterns are observed with an actigraphy-derived measure of sleep duration. These findings indicate that solutions to health consequences of night shift work should take individual differences in chronotype into account.

Prepayment meters strongly associated with multiple types of deprivation and emergency respiratory hospital admissions: an observational, cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Prepayment meters (PPMs) require energy to be paid in advance. Action groups and media contend that PPMs are concentrated in the most vulnerable groups, prone to run out of credit and experience financial burden. This led to forced installation for those over age 85 being banned in April 2023 and a 'prepayment premium' scrapped in July 2023. Yet, we lack empirical evidence of which groups PPMs are concentrated. This ecological study examines the extent to which PPMs are associated with multiple measures of structural social, economic and health deprivation to establish evidence-based policy. METHODS: Combining multiple regional data and census estimates at the Lower Layer Super Output Area and the Middle Layer Super Output Area level from England and Wales, we use Spearman's rank correlation, Pearson correlation and multivariate linear regression to empirically establish associations between PPMs and multiple types of deprivation. RESULTS: Higher PPM prevalence is strongly associated with: lower income, receipt of employment benefits, ethnic minorities, lower education and higher health deprivation. Higher PPM prevalence is strongly associated with higher income deprivation affecting children, the elderly and social rental properties. PPMs are significantly associated with emergency hospital admissions for respiratory diseases in England, even after controlling for confounders (coefficient=1.81; 95% CI 1.51 to 2.11). CONCLUSIONS: We found empirical evidence that PPM users are concentrated among the population who already experience multiple disadvantages. Furthermore, PPM concentrated areas are associated with higher emergency hospital admissions for respiratory diseases.

The effect of mandatory COVID-19 certificates on vaccine uptake: synthetic-control modelling of six countries.

BACKGROUND: Mandatory COVID-19 certification (showing vaccination, recent negative test, or proof of recovery) has been introduced in some countries. We aimed to investigate the effect of certification on vaccine uptake. METHODS: We designed a synthetic control model comparing six countries (Denmark, Israel, Italy, France, Germany, and Switzerland) that introduced certification (April-August, 2021), with 19 control countries. Using daily data on cases, deaths, vaccinations, and country-specific information, we produced a counterfactual trend estimating what might have happened in similar circumstances if certificates were not introduced. The main outcome was daily COVID-19 vaccine doses. FINDINGS: COVID-19 certification led to increased vaccinations 20 days before implementation in anticipation, with a lasting effect up to 40 days after. Countries with pre-intervention uptake that was below average had a more pronounced increase in daily vaccinations compared with those where uptake was already average or higher. In France, doses exceeded 55 672 (95% CI 49 668-73 707) vaccines per million population or, in absolute terms, 3 761 440 (3 355 761-4 979 952) doses before mandatory certification and 72 151 (37 940-114 140) per million population after certification (4 874 857 [2 563 396-7 711 769] doses). We found no effect in countries that already had average uptake (Germany), or an unclear effect when certificates were introduced during a period of limited vaccine supply (Denmark). Increase in uptake was highest for people younger than 30 years after the introduction of certification. Access restrictions linked to certain settings (nightclubs and events with >1000 people) were associated with increased uptake in those younger than 20 years. When certification was extended to broader settings, uptake remained high in the youngest group, but increases were also observed in those aged 30-49 years. INTERPRETATION: Mandatory COVID-19 certification could increase vaccine uptake, but interpretation and transferability of findings need to be considered in the context of pre-existing levels of vaccine uptake and hesitancy, eligibility changes, and the pandemic trajectory. FUNDING: Leverhulme Trust and European Research Council.

Gender differences in sleep disruption during COVID-19: cross-sectional analyses from two UK nationally representative surveys.

OBJECTIVE: COVID-19 related measures have impacted sleep on a global level. We examine changes in sleep problems and duration focusing on gender differentials. DESIGN: Cross-sectional analyses using two nationally representative surveys collected during the first and second month after the 2020 lockdown in the UK. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Participants (age 17 years and above) from the first wave of the Understanding Society COVID-19 Study are linked to the most recent wave before the pandemic completed during 2018 and 2019 (n=14 073). COVID-19 Survey Data was collected from 2 to 31 May 2020 (n=8547) with participants drawn from five nationally representative cohort studies in the UK. ANALYSIS: We conducted bivariate analyses to examine gender gaps in change in sleep problems and change in sleep duration overall and by other predictors. A series of multivariate ordinary least squares (OLS) regression models were estimated to explore predictors of change in sleep problems and change in sleep time. RESULTS: People in the UK on average experienced an increase in sleep loss during the first 4 weeks of the lockdown (mean=0.13, SD=0.9). Women report more sleep loss than men (coefficient=0.15, 95% CI 0.11 to 0.19). Daily sleep duration on average increased by ten minutes (mean=-0.16, SD=1.11), with men gaining eight more minutes of sleep per day than women (coefficient=0.13, 95% CI 0.09 to 0.17). CONCLUSION: The COVID-19 related measures amplified traditional gender roles. Men's sleep was more affected by changes in their financial situation and employment status related to the crisis, with women more influenced by their emotional reaction to the pandemic, feeling anxious and spending more time on family duties such as home schooling, unpaid domestic duties, nurturing and caregiving. Based on our findings, we provide policy advice of early, clear and better employment protection coverage of self-employed and precarious workers and employer recognition for parents.

Quantifying impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic through life-expectancy losses: a population-level study of 29 countries.

BACKGROUND: Variations in the age patterns and magnitudes of excess deaths, as well as differences in population sizes and age structures, make cross-national comparisons of the cumulative mortality impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic challenging. Life expectancy is a widely used indicator that provides a clear and cross-nationally comparable picture of the population-level impacts of the pandemic on mortality. METHODS: Life tables by sex were calculated for 29 countries, including most European countries, Chile and the USA, for 2015-2020. Life expectancy at birth and at age 60 years for 2020 were contextualized against recent trends between 2015 and 2019. Using decomposition techniques, we examined which specific age groups contributed to reductions in life expectancy in 2020 and to what extent reductions were attributable to official COVID-19 deaths. RESULTS: Life expectancy at birth declined from 2019 to 2020 in 27 out of 29 countries. Males in the USA and Lithuania experienced the largest losses in life expectancy at birth during 2020 (2.2 and 1.7 years, respectively), but reductions of more than an entire year were documented in 11 countries for males and 8 among females. Reductions were mostly attributable to increased mortality above age 60 years and to official COVID-19 deaths. CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic triggered significant mortality increases in 2020 of a magnitude not witnessed since World War II in Western Europe or the breakup of the Soviet Union in Eastern Europe. Females from 15 countries and males from 10 ended up with lower life expectancy at birth in 2020 than in 2015.