Rules of river avulsion change downstream.

Avulsing rivers create new pathways on the floodplain and the associated flooding can profoundly affect society1-4. River avulsions are thought to occur when the water column becomes perched above the floodplain5 or when the slope down the flanks of the channel provides a steeper descent than the existing river channel6,7. We test these classical ideas by quantifying the topography around avulsing rivers and show that these mechanisms, historically invoked separately, work together. Near coasts, rivers avulse when the slope away from the channel is steeper, not because they are perched. The opposite is true near mountain fronts; on fans, the alternative paths are similarly steep to the downstream path, so rivers avulse when they are perched above the surrounding landscape. We reconcile these findings and present a new theoretical framework that identifies which rivers are vulnerable to avulsion and predicts the path of an avulsing river. These first-order rules of avulsion suggest that avulsion risks are underestimated in many coastal environments8 and that probabilistic predictions of avulsion pathfinding can efficiently map hazards with minimal information. Applying these principles for risk assessment could particularly benefit the Global South, which is disproportionately affected by avulsions.

Universal relation with regime transition for sediment transport in fine-grained rivers.

Fine-grained sediment (grain size under 2,000 µm) builds floodplains and deltas, and shapes the coastlines where much of humanity lives. However, a universal, physically based predictor of sediment flux for fine-grained rivers remains to be developed. Herein, a comprehensive sediment load database for fine-grained channels, ranging from small experimental flumes to megarivers, is used to find a predictive algorithm. Two distinct transport regimes emerge, separated by a discontinuous transition for median bed grain size within the very fine sand range (81 to 154 µm), whereby sediment flux decreases by up to 100-fold for coarser sand-bedded rivers compared to river with silt and very fine sand beds. Evidence suggests that the discontinuous change in sediment load originates from a transition of transport mode between mixed suspended bed load transport and suspension-dominated transport. Events that alter bed sediment size near the transition may significantly affect fluviocoastal morphology by drastically changing sediment flux, as shown by data from the Yellow River, China, which, over time, transitioned back and forth 3 times between states of high and low transport efficiency in response to anthropic activities.

Transfer Entropy as a Tool for Hydrodynamic Model Validation.

The validation of numerical models is an important component of modeling to ensure reliability of model outputs under prescribed conditions. In river deltas, robust validation of models is paramount given that models are used to forecast land change and to track water, solid, and solute transport through the deltaic network. We propose using transfer entropy (TE) to validate model results. TE quantifies the information transferred between variables in terms of strength, timescale, and direction. Using water level data collected in the distributary channels and inter-channel islands of Wax Lake Delta, Louisiana, USA, along with modeled water level data generated for the same locations using Delft3D, we assess how well couplings between external drivers (river discharge, tides, wind) and modeled water levels reproduce the observed data couplings. We perform this operation through time using ten-day windows. Modeled and observed couplings compare well; their differences reflect the spatial parameterization of wind and roughness in the model, which prevents the model from capturing high frequency fluctuations of water level. The model captures couplings better in channels than on islands, suggesting that mechanisms of channel-island connectivity are not fully represented in the model. Overall, TE serves as an additional validation tool to quantify the couplings of the system of interest at multiple spatial and temporal scales.

Natural processes in delta restoration: application to the Mississippi Delta.

Restoration of river deltas involves diverting sediment and water from major channels into adjoining drowned areas, where the sediment can build new land and provide a platform for regenerating wetland ecosystems. Except for local engineered structures at the points of diversion, restoration mainly relies on natural delta-building processes. Present understanding of such processes is sufficient to provide a basis for determining the feasibility of restoration projects through quantitative estimates of land-building rates and sustainable wetland area under different scenarios of sediment supply, subsidence, and sea-level rise. We are not yet to the point of being able to predict the evolution of a restored delta in detail. Predictions of delta evolution are based on field studies of active deltas, deltas in mine-tailings ponds, experimental deltas, and countless natural experiments contained in the stratigraphic record. These studies provide input for a variety of mechanistic delta models, ranging from radially averaged formulations to more detailed models that can resolve channels, topography, and ecosystem processes. Especially exciting areas for future research include understanding the mechanisms by which deltaic channel networks self-organize, grow, and distribute sediment and nutrients over the delta surface and coupling these to ecosystem processes, especially the interplay of topography, network geometry, and ecosystem dynamics.

Comment on "Wetland sedimentation from hurricanes Katrina and Rita".

Turner et al. (Reports, 20 October 2006, p. 449) measured sedimentation from Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in coastal Louisiana and inferred that storm deposition overwhelms direct Mississippi River sediment input. However, their annualized hurricane deposition rate is overestimated, whereas riverine deposition is underestimated by at least an order of magnitude. Their numbers do not provide a credible basis for decisions about coastal restoration.