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The COVID-19 pandemy has created a radically new situation where most countries provide raw measurements of their daily incidence and disclose them in real time. This enables new machine learning forecast strategies where the prediction might no longer be based just on the past values of the current incidence curve, but could take advantage of observations in many countries. We present such a simple global machine learning procedure using all past daily incidence trend curves. Each of the 27,418 COVID-19 incidence trend curves in our database contains the values of 56 consecutive days extracted from observed incidence curves across 61 world regions and countries. Given a current incidence trend curve observed over the past four weeks, its forecast in the next four weeks is computed by matching it with the first four weeks of all samples, and ranking them by their similarity to the query curve. Then the 28 days forecast is obtained by a statistical estimation combining the values of the 28 last observed days in those similar samples. Using comparison performed by the European Covid-19 Forecast Hub with the current state of the art forecast methods, we verify that the proposed global learning method, EpiLearn, compares favorably to methods forecasting from a single past curve.
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COVID-19 , Humanos , COVID-19/epidemiología , Incidencia , PredicciónRESUMEN
The most common reported epidemic time series in epidemiological surveillance are the daily or weekly incidence of new cases, the hospital admission count, the ICU admission count, and the death toll, which played such a prominent role in the struggle to monitor the Covid-19 pandemic. We show that pairs of such curves are related to each other by a generalized renewal equation depending on a smooth time varying delay and a smooth ratio generalizing the reproduction number. Such a functional relation is also explored for pairs of simultaneous curves measuring the same indicator in two neighboring countries. Given two such simultaneous time series, we develop, based on a signal processing approach, an efficient numerical method for computing their time varying delay and ratio curves, and we verify that its results are consistent. Indeed, they experimentally verify symmetry and transitivity requirements and we also show, using realistic simulated data, that the method faithfully recovers time delays and ratios. We discuss several real examples where the method seems to display interpretable time delays and ratios. The proposed method generalizes and unifies many recent related attempts to take advantage of the plurality of these health data across regions or countries and time, providing a better understanding of the relationship between them. An implementation of the method is publicly available at the EpiInvert CRAN package.
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COVID-19 , Pandemias , Humanos , Factores de Tiempo , COVID-19/epidemiología , Hospitalización , IncidenciaRESUMEN
The COVID-19 pandemic has undergone frequent and rapid changes in its local and global infection rates, driven by governmental measures or the emergence of new viral variants. The reproduction number Rt indicates the average number of cases generated by an infected person at time t and is a key indicator of the spread of an epidemic. A timely estimation of Rt is a crucial tool to enable governmental organizations to adapt quickly to these changes and assess the consequences of their policies. The EpiEstim method is the most widely accepted method for estimating Rt But it estimates Rt with a significant temporal delay. Here, we propose a method, EpiInvert, that shows good agreement with EpiEstim, but that provides estimates of Rt several days in advance. We show that Rt can be estimated by inverting the renewal equation linking Rt with the observed incidence curve of new cases, it Our signal-processing approach to this problem yields both Rt and a restored it corrected for the "weekend effect" by applying a deconvolution and denoising procedure. The implementations of the EpiInvert and EpiEstim methods are fully open source and can be run in real time on every country in the world and every US state.
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Número Básico de Reproducción , COVID-19/transmisión , COVID-19/epidemiología , Simulación por Computador , Predicción , Humanos , Incidencia , Modelos Teóricos , SARS-CoV-2RESUMEN
Mycolactone is a bacteria-derived macrolide that blocks the biogenesis of a large array of secretory and integral transmembrane proteins (TMP) through potent inhibition of the Sec61 translocon. Here, we used quantitative proteomics to delineate the direct and indirect effects of mycolactone-mediated Sec61 blockade in living cells. In T lymphocytes, dendritic cells and sensory neurons, Sec61 substrates downregulated by mycolactone were in order of incidence: secretory proteins (with a signal peptide but no transmembrane domain), TMPs with a signal peptide (Type I) and TMPs without signal peptide and a cytosolic N terminus (Type II). TMPs without a signal peptide and the opposite N terminus topology (Type III) were refractory to mycolactone inhibition. This rule applied comparably to single- and multi-pass TMPs, and extended to exogenous viral proteins. Parallel to its broad-spectrum inhibition of Sec61-mediated protein translocation, mycolactone rapidly induced cytosolic chaperones Hsp70/Hsp90. Moreover, it activated an atypical endoplasmic reticulum stress response, differing from conventional unfolded protein response by the down-regulation of Bip. In addition to refining our mechanistic understanding of Sec61 inhibition by mycolactone, our findings thus reveal that Sec61 blockade induces proteostatic stress in the cytosol and the endoplasmic reticulum.
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Macrólidos/farmacología , Proteómica/métodos , Canales de Translocación SEC/metabolismo , Estrés Fisiológico , Animales , Estrés del Retículo Endoplásmico/efectos de los fármacos , Proteínas de la Membrana/metabolismo , Ratones , Estrés Fisiológico/efectos de los fármacos , Especificidad por Sustrato/efectos de los fármacos , Factores de Transcripción/metabolismo , Transcripción Genética/efectos de los fármacos , Regulación hacia Arriba/efectos de los fármacos , Proteínas Virales/metabolismoRESUMEN
Although antigen cross-presentation in dendritic cells (DCs) is critical to the initiation of most cytotoxic immune responses, the intracellular mechanisms and traffic pathways involved are still unclear. One of the most critical steps in this process, the export of internalized antigen to the cytosol, has been suggested to be mediated by Sec61. Sec61 is the channel that translocates signal peptide-bearing nascent polypeptides into the endoplasmic reticulum (ER), and it was also proposed to mediate protein retrotranslocation during ER-associated degradation (a process called ERAD). Here, we used a newly identified Sec61 blocker, mycolactone, to analyze Sec61's contribution to antigen cross-presentation, ERAD, and transport of internalized antigens into the cytosol. As shown previously in other cell types, mycolactone prevented protein import into the ER of DCs. Mycolactone-mediated Sec61 blockade also potently suppressed both antigen cross-presentation and direct presentation of synthetic peptides to CD8+ T cells. In contrast, it did not affect protein export from the ER lumen or from endosomes into the cytosol, suggesting that the inhibition of cross-presentation was not related to either of these trafficking pathways. Proteomic profiling of mycolactone-exposed DCs showed that expression of mediators of antigen presentation, including MHC class I and ß2 microglobulin, were highly susceptible to mycolactone treatment, indicating that Sec61 blockade affects antigen cross-presentation indirectly. Together, our data suggest that the defective translocation and subsequent degradation of Sec61 substrates is the cause of altered antigen cross-presentation in Sec61-blocked DCs.
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Presentación de Antígeno/fisiología , Endosomas/metabolismo , Macrólidos/farmacología , Canales de Translocación SEC/metabolismo , Animales , Presentación de Antígeno/efectos de los fármacos , Línea Celular , Citosol/efectos de los fármacos , Citosol/metabolismo , Células Dendríticas/efectos de los fármacos , Células Dendríticas/metabolismo , Degradación Asociada con el Retículo Endoplásmico/efectos de los fármacos , Endosomas/efectos de los fármacos , Células HEK293 , Humanos , Ratones , Transporte de Proteínas/efectos de los fármacos , Canales de Translocación SEC/antagonistas & inhibidoresRESUMEN
Susceptibility to metabolic syndrome (MetS) is dependent on genetics, environment, and gene-by-environment interactions, rendering the study of underlying mechanisms challenging. The majority of experiments in model organisms do not incorporate genetic variation and lack specific evaluation criteria for MetS. Here, we derived a continuous metric, the metabolic health score (MHS), based on standard clinical parameters and defined its molecular signatures in the liver and circulation. In human UK Biobank, the MHS associated with MetS status and was predictive of future disease incidence, even in individuals without MetS. Using quantitative trait locus analyses in mice, we found two MHS-associated genetic loci and replicated them in unrelated mouse populations. Through a prioritization scheme in mice and human genetic data, we identified TNKS and MCPH1 as candidates mediating differences in the MHS. Our findings provide insights into the molecular mechanisms sustaining metabolic health across species and uncover likely regulators. A record of this paper's transparent peer review process is included in the supplemental information.
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Síndrome Metabólico , Sitios de Carácter Cuantitativo , Animales , Ratones , Sitios de Carácter Cuantitativo/genética , Síndrome Metabólico/genética , Síndrome Metabólico/metabolismo , Humanos , Masculino , Predisposición Genética a la Enfermedad/genética , Femenino , Ratones Endogámicos C57BL , Estudio de Asociación del Genoma Completo/métodos , Biología de Sistemas/métodosRESUMEN
Lifespan is influenced by complex interactions between genetic and environmental factors. Studying those factors in model organisms of a single genetic background limits their translational value for humans. Here, we mapped lifespan determinants in 85 genetically diverse C. elegans recombinant intercross advanced inbred lines (RIAILs). We assessed molecular profiles - transcriptome, proteome, and lipidome - and life-history traits, including lifespan, development, growth dynamics, and reproduction. RIAILs exhibited large variations in lifespan, which positively correlated with developmental time. Among the top candidates obtained from multi-omics data integration and QTL mapping, we validated known and novel longevity modulators, including rict-1, gfm-1 and mltn-1. We translated their relevance to humans using UK Biobank data and showed that variants in RICTOR and GFM1 are associated with an elevated risk of age-related heart disease, dementia, diabetes, kidney, and liver diseases. We organized our dataset as a resource (https://lisp-lms.shinyapps.io/RIAILs/) that allows interactive explorations for new longevity targets.
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Inflammatory gut disorders, including inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), can be impacted by dietary, environmental, and genetic factors. While the incidence of IBD is increasing worldwide, we still lack a complete understanding of the gene-by-environment interactions underlying inflammation and IBD. Here, we profiled the colon transcriptome of 52 BXD mouse strains fed with a chow or high-fat diet (HFD) and identified a subset of BXD strains that exhibit an IBD-like transcriptome signature on HFD, indicating that an interplay of genetics and diet can significantly affect intestinal inflammation. Using gene co-expression analyses, we identified modules that are enriched for IBD-dysregulated genes and found that these IBD-related modules share cis-regulatory elements that are responsive to the STAT2, SMAD3, and REL transcription factors. We used module quantitative trait locus analyses to identify genetic loci associated with the expression of these modules. Through a prioritization scheme involving systems genetics in the mouse and integration with external human datasets, we identified Muc4 and Epha6 as the top candidates mediating differences in HFD-driven intestinal inflammation. This work provides insights into the contribution of genetics and diet to IBD risk and identifies two candidate genes, MUC4 and EPHA6, that may mediate IBD susceptibility in humans.
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Enfermedades Inflamatorias del Intestino , Ratones , Humanos , Animales , Enfermedades Inflamatorias del Intestino/genética , Enfermedades Inflamatorias del Intestino/metabolismo , Sitios de Carácter Cuantitativo , Dieta Alta en Grasa/efectos adversos , Inflamación/genética , Inflamación/complicaciones , Predisposición Genética a la EnfermedadRESUMEN
OBJECTIVE: Improving mitochondrial function is a promising strategy for intervention in type 2 diabetes mellitus. This study investigated the preventive effects of sodium ferrous citrate (SFC) and 5-aminolevulinic acid phosphate (ALA) on several metabolic dysfunctions associated with obesity because they have been shown to alleviate abnormal glucose metabolism in humans. METHODS: Six-week-old male C57BL/6J mice were fed with a normal diet, a high-fat diet, or a high-fat diet supplemented with SFC and ALA for 15 weeks. RESULTS: The simultaneous supplementation of SFC + ALA to high-fat diet-fed mice prevented loss of muscle mass, improved muscle strength, and reduced obesity and insulin resistance. SFC + ALA prevented abnormalities in mitochondrial morphology and reverted the diet effect on the skeletal muscle transcriptome, including the expression of glucose uptake and mitochondrial oxidative phosphorylation-related genes. In addition, SFC + ALA prevented the decline in mitochondrial DNA copy number by enhancing mitochondrial DNA maintenance and antioxidant transcription activity, both of which are impaired in high-fat diet-fed mice during long-term fasting. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that SFC + ALA supplementation exerts its preventive effects in type 2 diabetes mellitus via improved skeletal muscle and mitochondrial health, further validating its application as a promising strategy for the prevention of obesity-induced metabolic disorders.
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Ácido Aminolevulínico , Ácido Cítrico , Compuestos Ferrosos , Mitocondrias , Músculo Esquelético , Animales , Ratones , Compuestos Ferrosos/farmacología , Ácido Cítrico/farmacología , Ácido Aminolevulínico/farmacología , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2 , Ratones Endogámicos C57BL , Mitocondrias/metabolismo , Músculo Esquelético/metabolismo , Resistencia a la Insulina , Dieta Alta en Grasa , ADN MitocondrialRESUMEN
Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is a global health concern without treatment. The challenge in finding effective therapies is due to the lack of good mouse models and the complexity of the disease, characterized by gene-environment interactions. We tested the susceptibility of seven mouse strains to develop NASH. The severity of the clinical phenotypes observed varied widely across strains. PWK/PhJ mice were the most prone to develop hepatic inflammation and the only strain to progress to NASH with extensive fibrosis, while CAST/EiJ mice were completely resistant. Levels of mitochondrial transcripts and proteins as well as mitochondrial function were robustly reduced specifically in the liver of PWK/PhJ mice, suggesting a central role of mitochondrial dysfunction in NASH progression. Importantly, the NASH gene expression profile of PWK/PhJ mice had the highest overlap with the human NASH signature. Our study exposes the limitations of using a single mouse genetic background in metabolic studies and describes a novel NASH mouse model with features of the human NASH.
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Enfermedad del Hígado Graso no Alcohólico , Ratones , Humanos , Animales , Enfermedad del Hígado Graso no Alcohólico/genética , Enfermedad del Hígado Graso no Alcohólico/metabolismo , Enfermedad del Hígado Graso no Alcohólico/patología , Ratones Endogámicos C57BL , Hígado/metabolismo , Cirrosis Hepática/metabolismo , Ratones Endogámicos , Mitocondrias/genética , Mitocondrias/metabolismo , Modelos Animales de EnfermedadRESUMEN
Acute kidney failure and chronic kidney disease are global health issues steadily rising in incidence and prevalence. Animal models on a single genetic background have so far failed to recapitulate the clinical presentation of human nephropathies. Here, we used a simple model of folic acid-induced kidney injury in 7 highly diverse mouse strains. We measured plasma and urine parameters, as well as renal histopathology and mRNA expression data, at 1, 2, and 6 weeks after injury, covering the early recovery and long-term remission. We observed an extensive strain-specific response ranging from complete resistance of the CAST/EiJ to high sensitivity of the C57BL/6J, DBA/2J, and PWK/PhJ strains. In susceptible strains, the severe early kidney injury was accompanied by the induction of mitochondrial stress response (MSR) genes and the attenuation of NAD+ synthesis pathways. This is associated with delayed healing and a prolonged inflammatory and adaptive immune response 6 weeks after insult, heralding a transition to chronic kidney disease. Through a thorough comparison of the transcriptomic response in mouse and human disease, we show that critical metabolic gene alterations were shared across species, and we highlight the PWK/PhJ strain as an emergent model of transition from acute kidney injury to chronic disease.
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Lesión Renal Aguda , Insuficiencia Renal Crónica , Humanos , Ratones , Animales , Ratones Endogámicos C57BL , NAD , Ratones Endogámicos DBARESUMEN
Disruption of mitochondrial function and protein homeostasis plays a central role in aging. However, how these processes interact and what governs their failure in aging remain poorly understood. Here, we showed that ceramide biosynthesis controls the decline in mitochondrial and protein homeostasis during muscle aging. Analysis of transcriptome datasets derived from muscle biopsies obtained from both aged individuals and patients with a diverse range of muscle disorders revealed that changes in ceramide biosynthesis, as well as disturbances in mitochondrial and protein homeostasis pathways, are prevalent features in these conditions. By performing targeted lipidomics analyses, we found that ceramides accumulated in skeletal muscle with increasing age across Caenorhabditis elegans, mice, and humans. Inhibition of serine palmitoyltransferase (SPT), the rate-limiting enzyme of the ceramide de novo synthesis, by gene silencing or by treatment with myriocin restored proteostasis and mitochondrial function in human myoblasts, in C. elegans, and in the skeletal muscles of mice during aging. Restoration of these age-related processes improved health and life span in the nematode and muscle health and fitness in mice. Collectively, our data implicate pharmacological and genetic suppression of ceramide biosynthesis as potential therapeutic approaches to delay muscle aging and to manage related proteinopathies via mitochondrial and proteostasis remodeling.
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Resistencia a la Insulina , Proteostasis , Ratones , Humanos , Animales , Anciano , Caenorhabditis elegans , Músculo Esquelético/metabolismo , Ceramidas/metabolismo , Mitocondrias/metabolismo , Serina C-Palmitoiltransferasa/genética , Serina C-Palmitoiltransferasa/metabolismo , EnvejecimientoRESUMEN
The sanitary crisis of the past two years has focused the public's attention on quantitative indicators of the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. The daily reproduction number Rt, defined by the average number of new infections caused by a single infected individual at time t, is one of the best metrics for estimating the epidemic trend. In this paper, we provide a complete observation model for sampled epidemiological incidence signals obtained through periodic administrative measurements. The model is governed by the classic renewal equation using an empirical reproduction kernel, and subject to two perturbations: a time-varying gain with a weekly period and a white observation noise. We estimate this noise model and its parameters by extending a variational inversion of the model recovering its main driving variable Rt. Using Rt, a restored incidence curve, corrected of the weekly and festive day bias, can be deduced through the renewal equation. We verify experimentally on many countries that, once the weekly and festive days bias have been corrected, the difference between the incidence curve and its expected value is well approximated by an exponential distributed white noise multiplied by a power of the magnitude of the restored incidence curve.
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Organic elements make up 99% of an organism but without the remaining inorganic bioessential elements, termed the metallome, no life could be possible. The metallome is involved in all aspects of life, including charge balance and electrolytic activity, structure and conformation, signaling, acid-base buffering, electron and chemical group transfer, redox catalysis energy storage and biomineralization. Here, we report the evolution with age of the metallome and copper and zinc isotope compositions in five mouse organs. The aging metallome shows a conserved and reproducible fingerprint. By analyzing the metallome in tandem with the phenome, metabolome and proteome, we show networks of interactions that are organ-specific, age-dependent, isotopically-typified and that are associated with a wealth of clinical and molecular traits. We report that the copper isotope composition in liver is age-dependent, extending the existence of aging isotopic clocks beyond bulk organic elements. Furthermore, iron concentration and copper isotope composition relate to predictors of metabolic health, such as body fat percentage and maximum running capacity at the physiological level, and adipogenesis and OXPHOS at the biochemical level. Our results shed light on the metallome as an overlooked omic layer and open perspectives for potentially modulating cellular processes using careful and selective metallome manipulation.
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Envejecimiento/metabolismo , Metaboloma , Metales/metabolismo , Proteoma , Animales , Cobre/metabolismo , Ácidos Grasos/metabolismo , Hierro/metabolismo , Isótopos , Masculino , Ratones , Ratones Endogámicos C57BL , Oxidación-Reducción , Análisis de Sistemas , Zinc/metabolismoRESUMEN
The sharp increase in obesity prevalence worldwide is mainly attributable to changes in physical activity and eating behavior but the metabolic and clinical impacts of these obesogenic conditions vary between sexes and genetic backgrounds. This warrants personalized treatments of obesity and its complications, which require a thorough understanding of the diversity of metabolic responses to high-fat diet intake. By analyzing nine genetically diverse mouse strains, we show that much like humans, mice exhibit a huge variety of physiological and biochemical responses to high-fat diet. The strains exhibit various degrees of alterations in their phenotypic makeup. At the transcriptome level, we observe dysregulations of immunity, translation machinery, and mitochondrial genes. At the biochemical level, the enzymatic activity of mitochondrial complexes is affected. The diversity across mouse strains, diets, and sexes parallels that found in humans and supports the use of diverse mouse populations in future mechanistic or preclinical studies on metabolic dysfunctions.
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Mycolactone is a diffusible lipid toxin produced by Mycobacterium ulcerans, the causative agent of Buruli ulcer disease. Altough bacterially derived mycolactone has been shown to traffic from cutaneous foci of infection to the bloodstream, the mechanisms underpinning its access to systemic circulation and import by host cells remain largely unknown. Using biophysical and cell-based approaches, we demonstrate that mycolactone specific association to serum albumin and lipoproteins is necessary for its solubilization and is a major mechanism to regulate its bioavailability. We also demonstrate that Scavenger Receptor (SR)-B1 contributes to the cellular uptake of mycolactone. Overall, we suggest a new mechanism of transport and cell entry, challenging the dogma that the toxin enters host cells via passive diffusion.
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Hidradenitis suppurativa (HS) is a chronic skin disorder of unknown etiology that manifests as recurrent, painful lesions. Cutaneous dysbiosis and unresolved inflammation are hallmarks of active HS, but their origin and interplay remain unclear. Our metabolomic profiling of HS skin revealed an abnormal induction of the kynurenine pathway of tryptophan catabolism in dermal fibroblasts, correlating with the release of kynurenine pathway-inducing cytokines by inflammatory cell infiltrates. Notably, overactivation of the kynurenine pathway in lesional skin was associated with local and systemic depletion in tryptophan. Yet the skin microbiota normally degrades host tryptophan into indoles regulating tissue inflammation via engagement of the aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AHR). In HS skin lesions, we detected contextual defects in AHR activation coinciding with impaired production of bacteria-derived AHR agonists and decreased incidence of AHR ligand-producing bacteria in the resident flora. Dysregulation of tryptophan catabolism at the skin-microbiota interface thus provides a mechanism linking the immunological and microbiological features of HS lesions. In addition to revealing metabolic alterations in patients with HS, our study suggests that correcting AHR signaling would help restore immune homeostasis in HS skin.
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Hidradenitis Supurativa/genética , Inflamación/genética , Receptores de Hidrocarburo de Aril/genética , Piel/metabolismo , Triptófano/metabolismo , Adulto , Axila/microbiología , Axila/patología , Femenino , Fibroblastos/metabolismo , Fibroblastos/patología , Hidradenitis Supurativa/microbiología , Hidradenitis Supurativa/patología , Interacciones Microbiota-Huesped/genética , Humanos , Inflamación/microbiología , Inflamación/patología , Quinurenina/genética , Masculino , Metabolismo/genética , Persona de Mediana Edad , Piel/microbiología , Piel/patologíaRESUMEN
Mycolactone, an immunosuppressive macrolide released by the human pathogen Mycobacterium ulcerans, was previously shown to impair Sec61-dependent protein translocation, but the underlying molecular mechanism was not identified. In this study, we show that mycolactone directly targets the α subunit of the Sec61 translocon to block the production of secreted and integral membrane proteins with high potency. We identify a single-amino acid mutation conferring resistance to mycolactone, which localizes its interaction site near the lumenal plug of Sec61α. Quantitative proteomics reveals that during T cell activation, mycolactone-mediated Sec61 blockade affects a selective subset of secretory proteins including key signal-transmitting receptors and adhesion molecules. Expression of mutant Sec61α in mycolactone-treated T cells rescued their homing potential and effector functions. Furthermore, when expressed in macrophages, the mycolactone-resistant mutant restored IFN-γ receptor-mediated antimicrobial responses. Thus, our data provide definitive genetic evidence that Sec61 is the host receptor mediating the diverse immunomodulatory effects of mycolactone and identify Sec61 as a novel regulator of immune cell functions.