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1.
Int J Legal Med ; 138(1): 295-299, 2024 Jan.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36609734

RESUMEN

In times of peace and except for terrorist attacks, fatalities by explosions are rare. Fireworks have deadly potential, especially self-made or illegally acquired devices. The use of professional pyrotechnics by untrained persons poses a life-threatening hazard. We present a case of devastating blunt force and blast injuries to the head and chest of a young man. After ignition of a display shell (syn. a real shell or mortar shell) without the use of a launching pipe, the device hit the man's face, nearly simultaneously followed by the explosion of the burst charge. The autopsy revealed injuries to the face and forehead as well as extensive tissue structure damage and a massive contusion with a bloody edema of the lungs. Autopsy results are supplemented with CT imaging and 3D reconstruction of the fractured mid face, as well as histological and toxicological examinations. This case of a misused display shell demonstrates both its devastating destructive potential and the corresponding and rarely observed injury pattern.


Asunto(s)
Traumatismos por Explosión , Terrorismo , Heridas no Penetrantes , Humanos , Traumatismos por Explosión/etiología , Traumatismos por Explosión/patología , Diagnóstico por Imagen , Heridas no Penetrantes/etiología , Pulmón/patología , Explosiones
2.
Int J Legal Med ; 137(5): 1615-1627, 2023 Sep.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37395744

RESUMEN

Temperature-based time of death estimation using simulation methods such as the finite element method promise higher accuracy and broader applicability in nonstandard cooling scenarios than established phenomenological methods. Their accuracy depends crucially on the simulation model to capture the actual situation, which in turn hinges on the representation of the corpse's anatomy in form of computational meshes as well as on the thermodynamic parameters. While inaccuracies in anatomy representation due to coarse mesh resolution are known to have a minor impact on the estimated time of death, the sensitivity with respect to larger differences in the anatomy has so far not been studied. We assess this sensitivity by comparing four independently generated and vastly different anatomical models in terms of the estimated time of death in an identical cooling scenario. In order to isolate the impact of shape variation, the models are scaled to a reference size, and the possible impact of measurement location variation is excluded explicitly by finding measurement locations leading to minimum deviations. The thus obtained lower bound on the impact of anatomy on the estimated time of death shows, that anatomy variations lead to deviations of at least 5-10%.


Asunto(s)
Frío , Humanos , Temperatura , Análisis de Elementos Finitos , Simulación por Computador
3.
Int J Legal Med ; 137(2): 601-607, 2023 Mar.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36547700

RESUMEN

The reconstruction of traffic accidents involving powered two-wheelers (PTWs) frequently proves to be a challenging task. A case in which a fatal head-on crash of a PTW with a small truck where only minor vehicles damage was observed but resulted in isolated fatal chest trauma is discussed here. External examination of the corpse revealed two lacerations on the back, at the first glance implying sharp trauma. Based on the accident traces, the technical expert assumed an emergency break of the PTW rider resulting in a rotation of the PTW in terms of a wheelie on the front wheel. The first contact between the PTW rider and the tail end of the small truck probably occurred with the upper side of the helmet, and then, the back handle of the PTW caused the stab-like injuries followed by compression of the rider between the small truck or asphalt and the PTW. Based on the few accident traces available, neither a reconstruction of the pre-impact velocity nor a detailed reconstruction of the PTW rider kinematics was possible. However, using an interdisciplinary approach, the principal collision position as well as the injury mechanisms could be reconstructed.


Asunto(s)
Laceraciones , Traumatismos Torácicos , Humanos , Accidentes de Tránsito , Motocicletas , Vehículos a Motor
4.
Int J Legal Med ; 136(2): 591-601, 2022 Mar.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34862583

RESUMEN

Abusive head trauma (AHT) and its most common variant, the shaken baby syndrome (SBS), are predominantly characterized by central nervous system-associated lesions. Relatively little data are available on the value of skeletal and skin injuries for the diagnosis of SBS or AHT. Thus, the present study retrospectively investigated 72 cases of living children diagnosed with the explicit diagnosis of SBS during medico-legal examinations at three German university institutes of legal medicine. The risk of circular reasoning was reduced by the presence of 15 cases with confession by perpetrators. Accordingly, the comparison with the 57 non-confession cases yielded no significant differences. Skeletal survey by conventional projection radiography, often incomplete, was found to be performed in 78% of the cases only. Fractures were found in 32% of the cases. The skull (43%) and ribs (48%) were affected most frequently; only 8% of the cases showed classic metaphyseal lesions. In 48% of the cases, healing fractures were present. Skin lesions (hematomas and abrasions) were found in 53% of the cases with the face (76%), scalp (26%), and trunk (50%) being the major sites. In 48% of the cases, healing skin lesions were observed. Nearly 80% of the cases with fractures also showed skin lesions. The data prove that SBS is frequently accompanied by other forms of physical abuse. Therefore, skeletal survey is indispensable and should always be done completely and according to existing imaging guidelines if child abuse is suspected.


Asunto(s)
Maltrato a los Niños , Traumatismos Craneocerebrales , Síndrome del Bebé Sacudido , Niño , Maltrato a los Niños/diagnóstico , Traumatismos Craneocerebrales/diagnóstico por imagen , Medicina Legal , Humanos , Lactante , Estudios Retrospectivos , Síndrome del Bebé Sacudido/diagnóstico , Síndrome del Bebé Sacudido/patología
5.
Int J Legal Med ; 132(5): 1341-1347, 2018 Sep.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29546494

RESUMEN

Forensic experts often have to assess injury and fatality risks in the context of violent blunt force trauma. Maximum striking velocities in one- and two-handed strikes with a rod-like implement can be of particular interest. Current literature lacks studies addressing this problem. The purpose of this study was therefore to measure and analyse maximum striking velocities in one-handed and two-handed strikes in female and male volunteers. We hypothesised higher striking velocities in two-handed strikes compared to one-handed strikes. Fifty volunteers performed one- and two-handed strikes from top to bottom using a steel rod of 65 cm length and 1000 g weight. A Qualisys™ Motion Analysis system registered displacements of reflecting markers fixed to the rod as well as to the volunteer's body. In one-handed strikes, the mean maximum striking velocity was 17.2 m/s in the female sample and 23.9 m/s in the male sample. Statistically not significantly different maximum striking velocities were found in two-handed strikes with mean values of 18.3 m/s in the female sample and 24.2 m/s in the male sample. Female and male volunteers also yielded similar mean maximum striking velocities in two-handed strikes comparing 'overhead' and 'overshoulder' striking techniques. In conclusion, the striking technique did not relevantly influence maximum striking velocities in our setup.


Asunto(s)
Diseño de Equipo , Armas , Heridas no Penetrantes , Fenómenos Biofísicos/fisiología , Femenino , Ciencias Forenses , Mano , Humanos , Cinética , Masculino , Aptitud Física , Factores Sexuales , Suecia
6.
Int J Legal Med ; 132(2): 563-577, 2018 Mar.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29335777

RESUMEN

Post-mortem body cooling is the foundation of temperature-based death time estimations (TDE) in homicide cases. Forensic science generally provides two types of p.m. body cooling models, the phenomenological and the physical models. Since both of them have to implement important individual parameters like the quantity of abdominal fat explicitly or implicitly, a more exact quantification and localization of abdominal fat is a desideratum in TDE. Particularly for the physical models, a better knowledge of the abdominal fat distribution could lead to relevant improvements in TDEs. Modern imaging methods in medicine like computed tomography (CT) are opening up the possibility to register the quantity and spatial distribution of body fat in individual cases with unprecedented precision. Since a CT-scan of an individual's abdominal region can comprise 1000 slices as an order of magnitude, it is evident that their evaluation for body fat quantification and localization needs fully automated algorithms. The paper at hand describes the development and validation of such an algorithm called "CT-histogram-based fat estimation and quasi-segmentation" (CFES). The approach can be characterized as a weighted least squares method dealing with the gray value histogram of single CT-slices only. It does not require any anatomical a priori information nor does it perform time-consuming feature detection on the CT-images. The processing result consists in numbers quantifying the amount of abdominal body fat and of muscle-, organ-, and connective tissue. As a by-product, CFES generates a quasi-segmentation of the slices processed differentiating fat from muscle-, organ-, and connective tissue. The tool is validated on synthetic data and on CT-data of a special phantom. It was also applied on a CT-scan of a dead body, where it produced anatomically plausible results.


Asunto(s)
Grasa Abdominal/diagnóstico por imagen , Algoritmos , Fantasmas de Imagen , Tomografía Computarizada por Rayos X , Adulto , Temperatura Corporal , Patologia Forense , Humanos , Análisis de los Mínimos Cuadrados , Masculino , Cambios Post Mortem
7.
Int J Legal Med ; 132(2): 499-508, 2018 Mar.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29147771

RESUMEN

In blunt force trauma to the head caused by attacks with blunt instruments, contact forces can be estimated based on the conservation of momentum if impact velocities are known. The aims of this work were to measure maximum striking velocities and to examine the influence of rod parameters such as rod mass and length as well as volunteer parameters such as sex, age, body height, body mass, body mass index and the average amount of physical exercise. Steel rods with masses of 500, 1000 and 1500 g as well as lengths of 40, 65 and 90 cm were exemplarily tested as blunt instruments. Twenty-nine men and 22 women participated in this study. Each volunteer performed several vertical strikes with the steel rods onto a passive immobile target. Maximum striking velocities were measured by means of a Qualisys motion capture system using high-speed cameras and infrared light. Male volunteers achieved maximum striking velocities between 14.0 and 35.5 m/s whereas female volunteers achieved values between 10.4 and 28.3 m/s. Results show that maximum striking velocities increased with smaller rod masses and less consistently with higher rod lengths. Statistically significant influences were found in the volunteers' sex and average amount of physical exercise.


Asunto(s)
Diseño de Equipo , Cinética , Armas , Heridas no Penetrantes , Femenino , Ciencias Forenses , Humanos , Modelos Lineales , Masculino , Aptitud Física , Factores Sexuales
8.
Int J Legal Med ; 131(3): 699-712, 2017 May.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28091724

RESUMEN

Temperature-based death time estimation is based either on simple phenomenological models of corpse cooling or on detailed physical heat transfer models. The latter are much more complex but allow a higher accuracy of death time estimation, as in principle, all relevant cooling mechanisms can be taken into account.Here, a complete workflow for finite element-based cooling simulation is presented. The following steps are demonstrated on a CT phantom: Computer tomography (CT) scan Segmentation of the CT images for thermodynamically relevant features of individual geometries and compilation in a geometric computer-aided design (CAD) model Conversion of the segmentation result into a finite element (FE) simulation model Computation of the model cooling curve (MOD) Calculation of the cooling time (CTE) For the first time in FE-based cooling time estimation, the steps from the CT image over segmentation to FE model generation are performed semi-automatically. The cooling time calculation results are compared to cooling measurements performed on the phantoms under controlled conditions. In this context, the method is validated using a CT phantom. Some of the phantoms' thermodynamic material parameters had to be determined via independent experiments.Moreover, the impact of geometry and material parameter uncertainties on the estimated cooling time is investigated by a sensitivity analysis.


Asunto(s)
Simulación por Computador , Análisis de Elementos Finitos , Cambios Post Mortem , Diseño Asistido por Computadora , Estudios de Factibilidad , Humanos , Modelos Biológicos , Tomografía Computarizada Multidetector , Fantasmas de Imagen
9.
Forensic Sci Med Pathol ; 13(2): 230-233, 2017 Jun.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28409387

RESUMEN

Fatal bicycle-pedestrian collisions do not occur frequently and thus are rarely reported in literature. Pedestrians in bicycle-pedestrian accidents often sustain severe craniocerebral injuries caused by a collision induced fall with head impact on the road surface. We describe a case where a pedestrian crossing a road was hit by a bicycle. Hematomas of the left lower leg and of the left flank/abdomen were found to be caused by the primary impact. However, the fatal injuries were found to be contralateral with a rupture of the right renal pedicle, a rupture of the right lobe of the liver and a tear of the vena cava. Neither the bicycle impact nor a fall onto the road surface could cause these injuries. Multibody simulation (PC Crash 9.2) revealed entanglement between the bicyclist and the pedestrian followed by a contact interaction between the pedestrian laying on the road surface and the falling bicyclist. In forensic case work post-crash contact interactions between the bicyclist and the pedestrian should be considered as a potential source of severe injuries.


Asunto(s)
Ciclismo , Simulación por Computador , Peatones , Fenómenos Biomecánicos , Exsanguinación/etiología , Resultado Fatal , Femenino , Medicina Legal/métodos , Hematoma/patología , Humanos , Riñón/lesiones , Riñón/patología , Hígado/lesiones , Hígado/patología , Persona de Mediana Edad , Rotura , Programas Informáticos , Venas Cavas/lesiones , Venas Cavas/patología
10.
Int J Legal Med ; 130(3): 827-34, 2016 May.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27075915

RESUMEN

Forensic case work as well as literature shows that severe head injuries, e.g., with basilar fractures and cerebral hemorrhages due to stomps can be seen; however, there is no data basis concerning contact forces and potential influencing factors. The objective of this work was to generate a data basis of contact forces in stomping by performing experimental measurements and subsequent statistical analyses. Fifty-five volunteers participated in the present study. Each participant performed several stomps onto force plates with sturdy/soft footwear as well as with/without an elastic layer imitating the scalp. Ground reaction forces induced by jumps were also measured for sturdy and soft footwear. The results show statistically significant dependencies between maximum ground reaction forces and body weight and body height. A statistically significant influence of footwear on stomping force could only be found in tests with an elastic layer and in the jumping setup. Mean maximum stomping forces for the female volunteers were between 4694 and 5970 N; male volunteers were able to produce mean peak stomping forces between 8494 and 9016 N. Jumping forces were approximately twice the stomping forces for both male and female test persons. Regardless of footwear and gender, it can be claimed that a forceful stomp or jump to someone's head supported on the ground can cause facial and skull fractures. Thus, forceful stomps or jumps to someone's head can cause potential fatal injuries independent of footwear, gender, or fitness level.


Asunto(s)
Fenómenos Biomecánicos/fisiología , Traumatismos Cerrados de la Cabeza/fisiopatología , Adulto , Estatura/fisiología , Peso Corporal/fisiología , Femenino , Ciencias Forenses , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Zapatos , Adulto Joven
11.
Int J Legal Med ; 127(6): 1055-63, 2013 Nov.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-23377380

RESUMEN

Kinship relation and, in particular, paternity probability estimation using a Bayesian approach require the input of a priori probabilities of different hypotheses. In practical case work, a priori probabilities or priors, for short, must often be estimated using only common sense and symmetry arguments because in most cases, there is no evidence-based information on which the priors may be determined. In contrast to the accuracy of the likelihood probabilities or the likelihood ratios, the precision of the priors is usually very poor. Thus, a quantitative estimation of the priors' influence on the paternity probability is desirable. This article presents exact formulae to define sharp minimum and maximum boundaries of posterior probabilities as a function of prior boundaries which may be applied in kinship cases with varying numbers of hypotheses and also presents two case examples.


Asunto(s)
Teorema de Bayes , Familia , Funciones de Verosimilitud , Paternidad , Teoría de la Probabilidad , Algoritmos , Genética Forense , Marcadores Genéticos/genética , Genotipo
12.
Arch Kriminol ; 231(1-2): 46-54, 2013.
Artículo en Alemán | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-23596894

RESUMEN

For an expert opinion, the course of events in a conflict resulting in a 3 cm deep and 1.8 cm wide stab wound on the neck of a woman was to be reconstructed. Based on the statements of witnesses, there were three possible scenarios: 1. The knife was thrown from a distance of about one meter. 2. The knife had accidentally slipped from the hand. 3. The knife was deliberately used for a stab to the neck of the victim. The experimental setup comprised the knife presumably causing the injury and four comparable knives. The victim was represented by a pig carcass. The results of the test throws are presented and the sequence of movements is assessed as to the most probable course of events. Four male and three female subjects performed test throws which were documented by video recordings and measurements of the penetration depth. Six of the seven subjects were able to generate stab wounds by throwing the knives, whereas a knife accidentally slipping from the hand never caused a stab wound in the tests.


Asunto(s)
Testimonio de Experto/legislación & jurisprudencia , Traumatismos del Cuello/patología , Maltrato Conyugal/legislación & jurisprudencia , Armas/legislación & jurisprudencia , Heridas Punzantes/patología , Accidentes/legislación & jurisprudencia , Fenómenos Biomecánicos , Diagnóstico Diferencial , Femenino , Humanos
13.
Int J Legal Med ; 126(1): 79-87, 2012 Jan.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-21538225

RESUMEN

The most common method used in determining the estimated time since death in the early post-mortem phase is back-calculation based on rectal temperature decrease. Cooling experiments are essential for model generation and validation. Post-mortem temperature models are necessary to perform back-calculations. Thus far, cooling experiments have not been performed under controlled environmental conditions. The present study provides data on 84 post-mortem cooling experiments under strictly controlled environmental conditions. For a period of 5 years, starting in 2003, deceased persons with a known time of death and known environmental conditions at the death scene were transferred to a climatic chamber for the process of body cooling. The environmental temperature was programmed to the death scene temperature and kept constant throughout the process of body cooling. Rectal and ambient temperatures were measured every minute. Relevant case-specific information was summarized in a FileMaker database. The database serves as a reference tool for the comparison of real cases in forensic routine and to check the plausibility of model-derived estimates.


Asunto(s)
Temperatura Corporal , Medicina Legal , Cambios Post Mortem , Recto , Adulto , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Índice de Masa Corporal , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Factores de Tiempo
14.
Sci Rep ; 12(1): 20147, 2022 11 23.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36418341

RESUMEN

In a previous article a new algorithm for fully automatic 'CT histogram based Fat Estimation and quasi-Segmentation' (CFES) was validated on synthetic data, on a special CT phantom, and tested on one corpse. Usage of said data in FE-modelling for temperature-based death time estimation is the investigation's number one long-term goal. The article presents CFES's results on a human corpse sample of size R = 32, evaluating three different performance measures: the τ-value, measuring the ability to differentiate fat from muscle, the anatomical fat-muscle misclassification rate D, and the weighted distance S between the empirical and the theoretical grey-scale value histogram. CFES-performance on the sample was: D = 3.6% for weight exponent α = 1, slightly higher for α ≥ 2 and much higher for α ≤ 0. Investigating τ, S and D on the sample revealed some unexpected results: While large values of τ imply small D-values, rising S implies falling D and there is a positive linear relationship between τ and S. The latter two findings seem to be counter-intuitive. Our Monte Carlo analysis detected a general umbrella type relation between τ and S, which seems to stem from a pivotal problem in fitting Normal mixture distributions.


Asunto(s)
Adiposidad , Humanos , Algoritmos , Cadáver , Tomografía Computarizada por Rayos X
15.
Int J Legal Med ; 125(4): 503-17, 2011 Jul.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-20401616

RESUMEN

Temperature-based methods represent essential tools in forensic death time determination. Empirical double exponential models have gained wide acceptance because they are highly flexible and simple to handle. The most established model commonly used in forensic practice was developed by Henssge. It contains three independent variables: the body mass, the environmental temperature, and the initial body core temperature. The present study investigates the influence of variations in the input data (environmental temperature, initial body core temperature, core temperature, time) on the standard deviation of the model-based estimates of the time since death. Two different approaches were used for calculating the standard deviation: the law of error propagation and the Monte Carlo method. Errors in environmental temperature measurements as well as deviations of the initial rectal temperature were identified as major sources of inaccuracies in model based death time estimation.


Asunto(s)
Autopsia/métodos , Temperatura Corporal , Medicina Legal/métodos , Cambios Post Mortem , Temperatura , Algoritmos , Humanos , Método de Montecarlo , Valor Predictivo de las Pruebas , Procesos Estocásticos , Factores de Tiempo
16.
Int J Legal Med ; 125(3): 437-44, 2011 May.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-21286739

RESUMEN

Model-based methods play an important role in temperature-based death time determination. The most prominent method uses Marshall and Hoare's double exponential model with Henssge's parameter determination. The formulae contain body mass as the only non-temperature parameter. Henssge's method is well established since it can be adapted to non-standard cooling situations varying the parameter body mass by multiplying it with the corrective factor. The present study investigates the influence of measurement errors of body mass m as well as of variations of the corrective factor c on the error of the Marshall and Hoare-Henssge death time estimator t (D). A formula for the relative error of t (D) as a function of the relative error of m is derived. Simple approximations of order 1 and 0 nevertheless yield acceptable results validated by Monte Carlo simulations. They also provide the rule of thumb according to which the quotient of the standard deviations D(t (D)) of the estimated death time and D(m) of the body mass is equal to the quotient of the estimated death time t (D) and the body mass m (D(t (D))/D(m) ≈ t (D)/m). Additionally, formulae and their approximations are derived to quantify the influence of Henssge's body mass corrective factor c on death time estimation. In a range of body masses between 50 and 150 kg, the relative variation of the body mass corrective factor is approximately equal to the relative variation of the death time (Δt (D) = (t (D)/c)Δc). This formula is applied and compared to computations and to experimental cooling data with good results.


Asunto(s)
Índice de Masa Corporal , Temperatura Corporal , Cambios Post Mortem , Muerte , Medicina Legal , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Factores de Tiempo
17.
Stud Health Technol Inform ; 133: 201-7, 2008.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-18431848

RESUMEN

The method of numerical simulation is frequently used in the area of automotive safety. Recently, numerical models of the human body have been developed for the numerical simulation of occupants. Different approaches in modelling the human body have been used: the finite-element and the multibody technique. Numerical human models representing the two modelling approaches are introduced and the potentials and limitations of these models are discussed.


Asunto(s)
Accidentes de Tránsito , Automóviles , Simulación de Paciente , Seguridad , Aceleración , Fenómenos Biomecánicos , Análisis de Elementos Finitos , Humanos , Modelos Biológicos , Modelos Teóricos , Investigación , Factores de Riesgo , Programas Informáticos , Estrés Mecánico
18.
Forensic Sci Int ; 290: 189-195, 2018 Sep.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30081326

RESUMEN

Temperature based death time estimation (TDE) is severely limited in situations where body core temperature has almost decreased to ambient temperature. The TDE method of Marshall/Hoare and Henßge (MHH) defines a lower bound TK for body core temperature below which the time p.m. should be stated to be >10h only. A recent study (Potente et al., 2017 [10]) established a new method, called variance-bias-tradeoff (VBT) complementing MHH in constructing a right-side-half-infinite 97.5%-confidence interval for such 'near equilibrium'-situations. It seemingly proved the validity for all body core temperatures T

Asunto(s)
Intervalos de Confianza , Modelos Estadísticos , Cambios Post Mortem , Temperatura Corporal , Medicina Legal/métodos , Humanos , Temperatura
19.
Leg Med (Tokyo) ; 17(1): 48-51, 2015 Jan.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25205513

RESUMEN

Marshall and Hoare's double exponential model with Henßge's parameters is a well known method for temperature based death time estimation. The authors give 95%-confidence intervals for their method. Since body cooling is a complex thermodynamical process, one has to take into account a potential bias of the estimator. This quantity measures the systematic error of the estimators underlying model. For confidence interval radius calculation a bias of 0 is presupposed, therefore the actual probability of the true death time value to lie in the 95%-confidence interval can be much lower than 95% in case of nonvanishing bias. As in case of nonstandard conditions the confidence intervals have a probability of containing the true death time value which even in case of small corrective factor errors of Δ = ± 0.1 can be substantially smaller than the 95% claimed, the paper presents a formula for confidence intervals which keep a 95% probability in case of error Δc ⩽ ± 0.1.


Asunto(s)
Temperatura Corporal , Intervalos de Confianza , Muerte , Medicina Legal , Humanos , Cambios Post Mortem , Factores de Tiempo
20.
Forensic Sci Int ; 238: 53-8, 2014 May.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-24662512

RESUMEN

Bayesian estimation applied to temperature based death time estimation was recently introduced as conditional probability distribution or CPD-method by Biermann and Potente. The CPD-method is useful, if there is external information that sets the boundaries of the true death time interval (victim last seen alive and found dead). CPD allows computation of probabilities for small time intervals of interest (e.g. no-alibi intervals of suspects) within the large true death time interval. In the light of the importance of the CPD for conviction or acquittal of suspects the present study identifies a potential error source. Deviations in death time estimates will cause errors in the CPD-computed probabilities. We derive formulae to quantify the CPD error as a function of input error. Moreover we observed the paradox, that in cases, in which the small no-alibi time interval is located at the boundary of the true death time interval, adjacent to the erroneous death time estimate, CPD-computed probabilities for that small no-alibi interval will increase with increasing input deviation, else the CPD-computed probabilities will decrease. We therefore advise not to use CPD if there is an indication of an error or a contra-empirical deviation in the death time estimates, that is especially, if the death time estimates fall out of the true death time interval, even if the 95%-confidence intervals of the estimate still overlap the true death time interval.


Asunto(s)
Temperatura Corporal , Cambios Post Mortem , Probabilidad , Medicina Legal , Humanos , Funciones de Verosimilitud
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