A sustainable blue economy may not be possible in Tanzania without cutting emissions.

Balancing blue growth with the conservation of wild species and habitats is a key challenge for global ocean management. This is exacerbated in Global South nations, such as Tanzania, where climate-driven ocean change requires delicate marine spatial planning (MSP) trade-offs to ensure climate resilience of marine resources relied upon by coastal communities. Here, we identified challenges and opportunities that climate change presents to the near-term spatial management of Tanzania's artisanal fishing sector, marine protected areas and seaweed farming. Specifically, spatial meta-analysis of climate modelling for the region was carried out to estimate the natural distribution of climate resilience in the marine resources that support these socially important sectors. We estimated changes within the next 20 and 40 years, using modelling projections forced under global emissions trajectories, as well as a wealth of GIS and habitat suitability data derived from globally distributed programmes. Multi-decadal analyses indicated that long-term climate change trends and extreme weather present important challenges to the activity of these sectors, locally and regionally. Only in few instances did we identify areas exhibiting climate resilience and opportunities for sectoral expansion. Including these climate change refugia and bright spots in effective ocean management strategies may serve as nature-based solutions: promoting adaptive capacity in some of Tanzania's most vulnerable economic sectors; creating wage-gaining opportunities that promote gender parity; and delivering some economic benefits of a thriving ocean where possible. Without curbs in global emissions, however, a bleak future may emerge for globally valuable biodiversity hosted in Tanzania, and for its coastal communities, despite the expansion of protected areas or curbs in other pressures. Growing a sustainable ocean economy in this part of the Global South remains a substantial challenge without global decarbonization.

Simulations of long-term community dynamics in coral reefs--how perturbations shape trajectories.

Tropical coral reefs feature extraordinary biodiversity and high productivity rates in oligotrophic waters. Due to increasing frequencies of perturbations--anthropogenic and natural--many reefs are under threat. Such perturbations often have devastating effects on these unique ecosystems and especially if they occur simultaneously and amplify each other's impact, they might trigger a phase shift and create irreversible conditions.We developed a generic, spatially explicit, individual-based model in which competition drives the dynamics of a virtual benthic reef community--comprised of scleractinian corals and algae--under different environmental settings. Higher system properties, like population dynamics or community composition arise through self-organization as emergent properties. The model was parameterized for a typical coral reef site at Zanzibar, Tanzania and features coral bleaching and physical disturbance regimes as major sources of perturbations. Our results show that various types and modes (intensities and frequencies) of perturbations create diverse outcomes and that the switch from high diversity to single species dominance can be evoked by small changes in a key parameter. Here we extend the understanding of coral reef resilience and the identification of key processes, drivers and respective thresholds, responsible for changes in local situations. One future goal is to provide a tool which may aid decision making processes in management of coral reefs.

Seasonal distribution of fish larvae in mangrove-seagrass seascapes of Zanzibar (Tanzania).

Fish larvae supply in nearshore vegetated habitats, such as seagrass meadows and mangroves, contributes significantly to sustainable fish stocks. Yet, little information is available on distribution patterns of fish larvae in mangrove and seagrass habitats of the western Indian Ocean. The present study investigated the abundance, diversity and assemblage composition of fish larvae in mangrove creeks, inshore seagrass meadows (located adjacent to mangroves) and nearshore seagrass meadows (located in-between mangroves and coral reefs) in two coastal seascapes of Zanzibar (Tanzania) across seasons for 1 year. The highest mean abundances of fish larvae were recorded in mangrove creeks, while nearshore- and inshore seagrass meadows showed similar mean abundance levels. Generally, fish larvae representing 42 families were identified, with the fourteen most abundant families comprising 83% of all specimens. Fish larvae communities were dominated by specimens of the postflexion growth stage in all habitats, except in mangrove creeks in one of the two seascapes (i.e. Chwaka Bay) from April through June when abundances of the preflexion and very small-sized individuals were exceptionally high. Slightly higher fish larvae abundances were observed in mangroves during the southeast monsoon compared to the northeast monsoon, and there were also differences across months within monsoon periods for all three habitats studied. Assemblage composition of larvae did, however, not vary significantly in time or space. Our findings suggest that mangroves and seagrass meadows are highly linked shallow-water habitats with high retention of fish larvae contributing to similarity in assemblage compositions across shallow coastal seascapes. Conservation and management efforts should prioritize connected shallow-water seascapes for protection of fish larvae and to uphold sustainable coastal fisheries.

Sponges from Zanzibar host diverse prokaryotic communities with potential for natural product synthesis.

Sponges are one of the most dominant organisms in marine ecosystems. One reason for their success is their association with microorganisms that are besides the host itself responsible for the chemical defence. Sponge abundances have been increasing on coral reefs in the Western Indian Ocean (WIO) and are predicted to increase further with rising anthropogenic impacts on coral reefs. However, there is a paucity of information on chemical ecology of sponges from the WIO and their prokaryotic community composition. We used a combination of Illumina sequencing and a predictive metagenomic analysis to (i) assess the prokaryotic community composition of sponges from Zanzibar, (ii) predict the presence of KEGG metabolic pathways responsible for bioactive compound production and (iii) relate their presence to the degree of observed chemical defence in their respective sponge host. We found that sponges from Zanzibar host diverse prokaryotic communities that are host species-specific. Sponge-species and respective specimens that showed strong chemical defences in previous studies were also predicted to be highly enriched in various pathways responsible for secondary metabolite production. Hence, the combined sequencing and predictive metagenomic approach proved to be a useful indicator for the metabolic potential of sponge holobionts.

Sponge chemical defenses are a possible mechanism for increasing sponge abundance on reefs in Zanzibar.

Coral reefs are experiencing increasing anthropogenic impacts that result in substantial declines of reef-building corals and a change of community structure towards other benthic invertebrates or macroalgae. Reefs around Zanzibar are exposed to untreated sewage and runoff from the main city Stonetown. At many of these sites, sponge cover has increased over the last years. Sponges are one of the top spatial competitors on reefs worldwide. Their success is, in part, dependent on their strong chemical defenses against predators, microbial attacks and other sessile benthic competitors. This is the first study that investigates the bioactive properties of sponge species in the Western Indian Ocean region. Crude extracts of the ten most dominant sponge species were assessed for their chemical defenses against 35 bacterial strains (nine known as marine pathogens) using disc diffusion assays and general cytotoxic activities were assessed with brine shrimp lethality assays. The three chemically most active sponge species were additionally tested for their allelopathic properties against the scleractinian coral competitor Porites sp.. The antimicrobial assays revealed that all tested sponge extracts had strong antimicrobial properties and that the majority (80%) of the tested sponges were equally defended against pathogenic and environmental bacterial strains. Additionally, seven out of ten sponge species exhibited cytotoxic activities in the brine shrimp assay. Moreover, we could also show that the three most bioactive sponge species were able to decrease the photosynthetic performance of the coral symbionts and thus were likely to impair the coral physiology.

Environmental effects on the distribution of corallimorpharians in Tanzania.

This study examined the distribution and abundance of corallimorpharians (Cnidaria, Anthozoa) in Tanzania in relation to different aspects of the coral reef environment. Five reefs under varying degrees of human disturbance were investigated using the line intercept transect and point technique. Corallimorpharian growth and the composition of the substratum were quantified in different habitats within reefs: the inner and middle reef flat, the reef crest, and at the 2 and 4 m depths on the reef slope. Corallimorpharians occurred on all the reefs and 5 species were identified: Rhodactis rhodostoma, R. mussoides, Ricordea yuma, Actinodiscus unguja and A. nummiforme. R. rhodostoma was the dominant corallimorpharian at all sites. Within reefs, they had the highest densities in the shallow habitats. While R. rhodostoma occurred in all habitats, the other corallimorpharian species showed uneven distributions. Corallimorpharians ranked second, after scleractinian coral, in percent living cover. Results from this study suggested that corallimorpharians benefitted from disturbance compared with other sessile organisms. They preferred inhabiting areas with dead coral, rock and rubble whilst live coral was avoided. There was a positive relationship between percent cover of corallimorpharians and water turbidity and they dominated the more disturbed reefs, i.e. reefs that were affected by higher nutrient loads and fishing.