Trends in HIV prevalence and risk factors among men who have sex with men in Mozambique: implications for targeted interventions and public health strategies.

BACKGROUND: Men who have sex with Men (MSM) are known to contribute to increased HIV prevalence as an integral part of key populations with high vulnerability to HIV/AIDS due to their sexual behaviours. Mozambique conducted two rounds of bio-behavioral surveys (BBS) in this population with the main objective of estimating HIV prevalence and associated risk behaviors among MSM in Mozambique. The present study aims to estimate the trend of HIV prevalence and determine the correlations of HIV infection among MSM. METHODS: A repeated cross-sectional analytical study was conducted from secondary data from the first and second rounds of BBS in Mozambique conducted in 2011 and 2020-2021 respectively. Each round used a similar methodology which allowed for comparison between the two surveys. Chi-square test and logistic regression was used to compare the HIV prevalence between the BBS rounds, identify factors associated with HIV, and assess changes in HIV prevalence across selected risk factors. RESULTS: There was a significant increase in HIV prevalence among MSM (7.1-14.9%), living in Maputo (9.3-14.7%), uncircumcised (11.7-25.1%), and those who reported two sexual partners in the last year (5.2-14.4%). In contrast, there was a decrease in prevalence among adult MSM aged between 25 and 29 years (24.7-13.9%), aged 30 years or older (45.7-27.7%), married (29.1-16.8%), with higher education (16.7-5.9%) and moderate perception of HIV risk (10.9-3.4%). Multivariable analysis showed that factors such as age, marital status, religion, sexual identity, circumcision, and the use of lubrication during anal sex are significantly associated with the risk of HIV infection. CONCLUSIONS: This study underscores the continuing need for HIV prevention and education efforts. The rise in prevalence among specific population segments and the sustained presence of risk factors emphasize the requirement for holistic strategies tailored to the unique requirements of each subgroup. Understanding trends and risk factors is crucial to guiding public health policies and designing efficacious prevention programs that aim to curtail HIV transmission while enhancing the well-being of those impacted by the condition.

Prevalence and correlates of hazardous alcohol drinking and drug use among female sex workers and men who have sex with men in Mozambique.

BACKGROUND: Hazardous drinking and drug consumption are associated with an increased risk of HIV due to the complex interplay of factors influencing decision-making capability, stigma and social marginalization. In this study, we explore the patterns of hazardous alcohol and drug use and correlates of risk factors among female sex workers (FSW) and men who as sex with men (MSM) in Mozambique. METHODS: We conducted a secondary data analysis of bio-behavioral surveys (BBS) among FSW and MSM using a respondent-driven sampling methodology conducted in five main urban areas of Mozambique from 2019 to 20. The survey included a standardized questionnaire, where hazardous drinking was assessed (using AUDIT-C scores ≥ 4 for men, ≥ 3 for women) and drug use in the last year (FSW). Chi-squared test was used to analyze the association between socio-demographic and behavioral variables, and multivariate logistic regression measured the impact of the associated factors. RESULTS: The prevalence of hazardous alcohol drinking was 47.1% (95% CI:44.8-49.5) for FSW and 46.5 (95% CI: 44.0-49.0) for MSM. Current drug use was reported in 13.3% of FSW. FSW engaging in hazardous alcohol drinking reported more sexual partners in the last month than those no reporting hazardous alcohol use (55.3% vs. 47,1%, p < 0.001), higher rates of self-reported STIs in the last year (62,5% vs. 48,2%, p < 0.001), physical (53.5% vs. 46.7%, p < 0.0001) and sexual violence (54.7% vs. 44.2%, p < 0.001), and HIV prevalence (55.2% vs. 44.2 p < 0.001). Among MSM with hazardous alcohol drinking, there was a higher prevalence of self-reported STIs (52.8% vs. 45.4%, p < 0.001), experiences of sexual violence (18.0% vs. 8.3%, p < 0.001), and HIV prevalence (53.0% vs. 46.3%, p < 0.001). In addition, FSW who reported illicit drug use were more likely to self-reported HIV own risk (14.2% vs. 9.7%), early start sexual activity (15.4% vs. 5.3%), self-reported STIs (17.9% vs. 10.2%), and experiences of both physical (17.4% vs. 7.0%) and sexual violence (18.6% vs. 8.9%). CONCLUSION: There is an immediate need for the introduction and integration of comprehensive substance use harm mitigation and mental health interventions into HIV prevention programs, particularly those targeting key populations in Mozambique.

Assessing the Vulnerability and Adaptation Needs of Mozambique's Health Sector to Climate: A Comprehensive Study.

Climate change poses severe consequences, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, where poverty rates may escalate by 2050 without significant climate and development action. The health impacts are diverse, encompassing communicable and non-communicable diseases. Mozambique, a climate-vulnerable nation, has experienced significant natural disasters in the past 42 years, impacting its health system. This study aims to assess Mozambique's health sector's vulnerability and adaptation needs to climate change. Following a methodology proposed by the World Health Organization and the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change, a six-step vulnerability and adaptation assessment was conducted to conduct the Health Vulnerability Index (HVI) for Mozambique's regions (n=161). The HVI integrates historical climate, epidemiological, and socio-economic data at the district level, and was computed using exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity dimensions. The results revealed spatial patterns in exposure to climate variables, extreme weather events, and variations in sensitivity and adaptive capacity across the country. The HVI mirrored the exposure findings. Notably, high vulnerability was observed in several districts, while major urban centers displayed lower vulnerability. These findings highlight the country's vulnerability to climate change and underscore the potential for adverse impacts on livelihoods, the economy, and human health. The study provides a foundation for developing strategies and adaptation actions.

HIV risk factors among adolescent and young adults: A geospatial-temporal analysis of Mozambique AIDS indicator survey data.

In a developing country, it is very crucial to know where the HIV/AIDS epidemic is much more prevalent and where direct interventions are needed, especially when managing limited and scarce resources. We therefore examine the spatial distribution of HIV in Mozambique, and also assess how the epidemic evolved over a six-year period (2009-2015), with respect to potential risk factors among adolescents and young adults. We used data from the 2009 and 2015 Mozambique AIDS indicator surveys. The data were analysed jointly, by extending the work of Muleia et al. (2020) to allow for different bivariate spatial smoothing functions for both surveys. The results showed considerable spatial variation. From 2009 to 2015, the probability to be HIV positive reduced by 43.6% for young women. The results also showed dependence of the probability for HIV infection on sociodemographic factors. The findings herein will help health officials design efficient target interventions.

Multi-population stochastic modeling of Ebola in Sierra Leone: Investigation of spatial heterogeneity.

A major outbreak of the Ebola virus occurred in 2014 in Sierra Leone. We investigate the spatial heterogeneity of the outbreak among districts in Sierra Leone. The stochastic discrete-time susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) model is used, allowing for probabilistic movements from one compartment to another. Our model accounts for heterogeneity among districts by making use of a hierarchical approach. The transmission rates are considered time-varying. It is investigated whether or not incubation period, infectious period and transmission rates are different among districts. Estimation is done using the Bayesian formalism. The posterior estimates of the effective reproductive number were substantially different across the districts, with pronounced variability in districts with few cases of Ebola. The posterior estimates of the reproductive number at the district level varied between below 1.0 and 4.5, whereas at nationwide level it varied between below 1.0 and 2.5. The posterior estimate of the effective reproductive number reached a value below 1.0 around December. In some districts, the effective reproductive number pointed out for the persistence of the outbreak or for a likely resurgence of new cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD). The posterior estimates have shown to be highly sensitive to prior elicitation, mainly the incubation period and infectious period.

Spatial Distribution of HIV Prevalence among Young People in Mozambique.

Mozambique has a high burden of HIV and is currently ranked sixth worldwide for adult prevalence. In Mozambique, HIV prevalence is not uniformly distributed geographically and throughout the population. We investigated the spatial distribution of HIV infection among adolescents and young people in Mozambique using the 2009 AIDS Indicator Survey (AIS). Generalized geoadditive modeling, combining kriging and additive modeling, was used to study the geographical variability of HIV risk among young people. The nonlinear spatial effect was assessed through radial basis splines. The estimation process was done using two-stage iterative penalized quasi-likelihood within the framework of a mixed-effects model. Our estimation procedure is an extension of the approach by Vandendijck et al., estimating the range (spatial decay) parameter in a binary context. The results revealed the presence of spatial patterns of HIV infection. After controlling for important covariates, the results showed a greater burden of HIV/AIDS in the central and northern regions of the country. Several socio-demographic, biological, and behavioral factors were found to be significantly associated with HIV infection among young people. The findings are important, as they can help health officials and policy makers to design targeted interventions for responding to the HIV epidemic.