The "double jeopardy" of midlife and old age mortality trends in the United States.

Since 2010, US life expectancy growth has stagnated. Much research on US mortality has focused on working-age adults given adverse trends in drug overdose deaths, other external causes of death, and cardiometabolic deaths in midlife. We show that the adverse mortality trend at retirement ages (65+ y) has in fact been more consequential to the US life expectancy stagnation since 2010, as well as excess deaths and years of life lost in 2019, than adverse mortality trends at working ages. These results reveal that the United States is experiencing a "double jeopardy" that is driven by both mid-life and older-age mortality trends, but more so by older-age mortality. Understanding and addressing the causes behind the worsening mortality trend in older ages will be essential to returning to the pace of life expectancy improvements that the United States had experienced for decades.

Maternal pre-pregnancy BMI and reproductive health in adult sons: a study in the Danish National Birth Cohort.

STUDY QUESTION: Is maternal pre-pregnancy BMI associated with semen quality, testes volume, and reproductive hormone levels in sons? SUMMARY ANSWER: Maternal pre-pregnancy BMI was associated with an altered reproductive hormone profile in young adult sons, characterized by higher levels of oestradiol, LH, and free androgen index (FAI) and lower levels of sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) in sons born of mothers with pre-pregnancy overweight and obesity. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Evidence suggests that maternal pre-pregnancy BMI may influence reproductive health later in life. Only one pilot study has investigated the association between maternal pre-pregnancy BMI and reproductive health outcomes in sons, suggesting that a high BMI was associated with impaired reproductive function in the adult sons. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: A population-based follow-up study of 1058 young men from the Fetal Programming of Semen Quality (FEPOS) cohort nested within the Danish National Birth Cohort (DNBC), 1998-2019, was carried out. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: In total, 1058 adult sons (median age 19 years, 2 months), born 1998-2000 by mothers included in the DNBC, participated in FEPOS. At a clinical examination, they provided a semen and blood sample, measured their testes volume, and had height and weight measured. Maternal pre-pregnancy BMI was obtained by self-report in early pregnancy. Semen characteristics, testes volume, and reproductive hormone levels were analysed according to maternal pre-pregnancy BMI categories and as restricted cubic splines using negative binomial and ordinary least square regression models. Mediation analyses examined potential mediation by the sons' birthweight, pubertal timing, fat mass, and BMI. Additional analyses investigated the role of paternal BMI in the potential associations between maternal BMI and reproductive health outcomes. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: We found no consistent associations between maternal pre-pregnancy BMI and semen characteristics or testes volume. Sons of mothers with higher pre-pregnancy BMI had higher oestradiol and lower SHBG levels, both in a dose-dependent manner. Sons of mothers with pre-pregnancy obesity (≥30 kg/m2) had higher LH levels and a higher FAI than sons born by mothers with normal pre-pregnancy BMI (18.5-24.9 kg/m2). The mediation analyses suggested that the effect of maternal pre-pregnancy BMI on higher levels of oestrogen, LH, and FAI was partly mediated by the sons' birthweight, in addition to adult fat mass and BMI measured at the clinical examination, whereas most of the effect on lower levels of SHBG was primarily mediated by the sons' own fat mass and BMI. Paternal BMI was not a strong confounder of the associations in this study. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: This study was based in a population-based cohort with a low prevalence of overweight and obesity in both mothers and adult sons. Some men (10%) had blood for reproductive hormone assessment drawn in the evening. While several potential confounding factors were accounted for, this study's inherent risk of residual and unmeasured confounding precludes provision of causal estimates. Therefore, caution should be given when interpreting the causal effect of maternal BMI on sons' reproductive health. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: Given the widespread occurrence of overweight and obesity among pregnant women, it is imperative to thoroughly examine the potential consequences for reproductive hormone levels in adult sons. The potential effects of maternal pre-pregnancy obesity on sons' reproductive hormone profile may potentially be partly avoided by the prevention of overweight and obesity in the sons. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): The project was funded by the Lundbeck Foundation (R170-2014-855), the Capital Region of Denmark, Medical doctor Sofus Carl Emil Friis and spouse Olga Doris Friis's Grant, Axel Muusfeldt's Foundation (2016-491), AP Møller Foundation (16-37), the Health Foundation, Dagmar Marshall's Fond, Aarhus University, Independent Research Fund Denmark (9039-00128B), and the European Union (ERC, BIOSFER, 101071773). Views and opinions expressed are, however, those of the authors only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union or the European Research Council. Neither the European Union nor the granting authority can be held responsible. The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: N/A.

At the Intersection of Adverse Life Course Pathways: The Effects on Health by Migration Status.

Adverse life events are major causes of declining health and well-being, but the effects vary across subpopulations. We analyze how the intersection of migration status and sex relates to two main adverse life events-job loss and divorce-thereby affecting individual health and well-being trajectories. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (1984-2017), we apply descriptive techniques and individual fixed-effects regressions to analyze how job loss and divorce influence the health of immigrants and nonimmigrants. Our results support the hypothesis that immigrants suffer more from adverse life events than nonimmigrants in both the short and the long run. Relative to nonimmigrants, immigrants have a health advantage at younger ages, which becomes a disadvantage at older ages, and this faster decline at older ages is particularly steep among immigrants who experience adverse life events. These results help explain the vanishing health advantage of immigrants by showing that they are exposed to a double disadvantage over the life course: immigrants are more likely than nonimmigrants to suffer from adverse life events, such as job loss, and these events typically have a larger impact on their health. Our findings are the first to provide evidence regarding the consequences of different adverse life events and how they relate to the intersection of migration status and sex. Moreover, our results highlight the importance of intersectional analyses in research on immigrant health.

Cognitive impairment and partnership status in the United States, 1998-2016, by sex, race/ethnicity, and education.

Cognitively impaired adults without a partner are highly disadvantaged, as partners constitute an important source of caregiving and emotional support. With the application of innovative multistate models to the Health and Retirement Study, this paper is the first to estimate joint expectancies of cognitive and partnership status at age 50 by sex, race/ethnicity, and education in the United States. We find that women live a decade longer unpartnered than men. Women are also disadvantaged as they experience three more years as both cognitively impaired and unpartnered than men. Black women live over twice as long as cognitively impaired and unpartnered compared with White women. Lower-educated men and women live around three and five years longer, respectively, as cognitively impaired and unpartnered than more highly educated men and women. This study addresses a novel facet of partnership and cognitive status dynamics and examines their variations by key socio-demographic factors.

Multimorbid life expectancy across race, socio-economic status, and sex in South Africa.

Multimorbidity is increasing globally as populations age. However, it is unclear how long individuals live with multimorbidity and how it varies by social and economic factors. We investigate this in South Africa, whose apartheid history further complicates race, socio-economic, and sex inequalities. We introduce the term 'multimorbid life expectancy' (MMLE) to describe the years lived with multimorbidity. Using data from the South African National Income Dynamics Study (2008-17) and incidence-based multistate Markov modelling, we find that females experience higher MMLE than males (17.3 vs 9.8 years), and this disparity is consistent across all race and education groups. MMLE is highest among Asian/Indian people and the post-secondary educated relative to other groups and lowest among African people. These findings suggest there are associations between structural inequalities and MMLE, highlighting the need for health-system and educational policies to be implemented in a way proportional to each group's level of need.

US Racial-Ethnic Mortality Gap Adjusted for Population Structure.

BACKGROUND: US racial-ethnic mortality disparities are well documented and central to debates on social inequalities in health. Standard measures, such as life expectancy or years of life lost, are based on synthetic populations and do not account for the real underlying populations experiencing the inequalities. METHODS: We analyze US mortality disparities comparing Asian Americans, Blacks, Hispanics, and Native Americans/Alaska Natives to Whites using 2019 CDC and NCHS data, using a novel approach that estimates the mortality gap, adjusted for population structure by accounting for real-population exposures. This measure is tailored for analyses where age structures are fundamental, not merely a confounder. We highlight the magnitude of inequalities by comparing the population structure-adjusted mortality gap against standard metrics' estimates of loss of life due to leading causes. RESULTS: Based on the population structure-adjusted mortality gap, Black and Native American mortality disadvantage exceedsmortality from circulatory diseases. The disadvantage is 72% among Blacks (men: 47%, women: 98%) and 65% among Native Americans (men: 45%, women: 92%), larger than life expectancy measured disadvantage. In contrast, estimated advantages for Asian Americans are over three times (men: 176%, women: 283%) and, for Hispanics, two times (men: 123%; women: 190%) larger than those based on life expectancy. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality inequalities based on standard metrics' synthetic populations can differ markedly from estimates of the population structure-adjusted mortality gap. We demonstrate that standard metrics underestimate racial-ethnic disparities through disregarding actual population age structures. Exposure-corrected measures of inequality may better inform health policies around allocation of scarce resources.

Medically assisted reproduction and mental health: a 24-year longitudinal analysis using Finnish register data.

BACKGROUND: Medically assisted reproduction can negatively affect women's mental health, particularly when the treatments do not result in a live birth. Although the number of women relying on medically assisted reproduction to conceive has grown rapidly, our knowledge about the mental health effects before, during, and after treatment is limited. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to understand the long-term association between medically assisted reproduction and mental health outcomes for women before, during, and after their treatments, and according to whether the treatment resulted in a live birth. STUDY DESIGN: Using Finnish register data for the period from 1995 to 2018, we estimated the probability of psychotropic purchases (antidepressants, anxiolytics, hypnotics, and sedatives) for 3 groups of women who: (1) gave birth after natural conception, (2) gave birth after medically assisted reproduction treatments, or (3) underwent medically assisted reproduction but remained childless. We followed up women for up to 12 years before and 12 years after the reference date, which corresponded to the conception date for women who had a first live birth either after a natural or a medically assisted conception, or the date of the last medically assisted reproduction treatment for women with no live birth by the end of 2017. We estimated linear probability models before and after adjustment for sociodemographic characteristics. RESULTS: The results show that women who did not have a live birth after undergoing medically assisted reproduction treatments purchased more psychotropics than women who gave birth after conceiving naturally or through medically assisted reproduction, and that these differences did not attenuate over time. Twelve years after the reference date, 17.73% (95% confidence interval, 16.82-18.63) of women who underwent medically assisted reproduction but remained childless purchased psychotropics vs 11.11% of women who gave birth after natural conception (95% confidence interval, 10.98-11.26) and 12.17% (95% confidence interval, 11.65-12.69) of women who gave birth after medically assisted reproduction treatments. In addition, women who conceived naturally and through medically assisted reproduction had very similar psychotropic use patterns from 3 years before conception to 4 years after, and over the long term. Adjustment for women's sociodemographic characteristics did not change the results. CONCLUSION: The similarities in psychotropic purchases of women who had a live birth, whether naturally or through medically assisted reproduction, suggest that the higher psychotropic use among women who remained childless after undergoing medically assisted reproduction were likely driven more by involuntary childlessness than by treatment-related stress. The results highlight the importance of counseling for women undergoing medically assisted reproduction treatments, especially if their attempts to conceive are unsuccessful.

Birth size, school performance and family social position: a study of 650,000 children.

BACKGROUND: Low birth weight (BW) is associated with lower cognitive functioning, but less is known of these associations across the full range of the BW distribution and its components. We analyzed how BW, birth length (BL) and birth ponderal index (BPI, kg/m3) are associated with school performance and how childhood family social position modifies these associations. METHODS: Medical birth records of all Finnish children born in 1987-1997 were linked to school performance records at 16 years of age (N = 642,425). We used population averaged and within-siblings fixed-effects linear regression models. RESULTS: BL showed a linear and BW a curvilinear association with school performance whereas for BPI the association was weak. The strongest association was found for BL explaining 0.08% of the variation in school performance in boys and 0.14% in girls. Demographic, gestational and social factors partly explained these associations. Similar but weaker associations were found within sibships. The association of BL with school performance was stronger at lower levels of family social position. CONCLUSION: BL shows a linear association with school performance and can explain more school performance variation than BW. At the population level, BL can offer useful information on intrauterine environmental factors relevant for cognitive performance. IMPACT: Birth length is linearly associated with school performance in late adolescence and explains a larger proportion of school performance variation than birth weight. The association between birth length and school performance is stronger in families with lower socio-economic position. At the population level, birth length can offer information on the intrauterine environment relevant for later cognitive performance.

Racial, Ethnic, Nativity, and Educational Disparities in Cognitive Impairment and Activity Limitations in the United States, 1998-2016.

Despite extensive research on cognitive impairment and limitations in basic activities of daily living, no study has investigated the burden of their co-occurrence (co-impairment). Using the Health and Retirement Study data and incidence-based multistate models, we study the population burden of co-impairment using three key indicators: mean age at onset, lifetime risk, and health expectancy. We examine patterns by gender, race, ethnicity, nativity, education, and their interactions for U.S. residents aged 50-100. Furthermore, we analyze what fractions of racial, ethnic, and nativity disparities in co-impairment are attributable to inequalities in educational attainment. Results reveal that an estimated 56% of women and 41% of men aged 50 will experience co-impairment in their remaining life expectancy. Men experience an earlier onset of co-impairment than women (74 vs. 77 years), and women live longer in co-impairment than men (3.4 vs. 1.9 years). Individuals who are Black, Latinx, and lower educated, especially those experiencing intersecting disadvantages, have substantially higher lifetime risk of co-impairment, earlier co-impairment onset, and longer life in co-impairment than their counterparts. Up to 75% of racial, ethnic, and nativity disparity is attributable to inequality in educational attainment. This study provides novel insights into the burden of co-impairment and offers evidence of dramatic disparities in the older U.S. population.

The Extension of Late Working Life in Germany: Trends, Inequalities, and the East-West Divide.

The extension of late working life has been proposed as a potential remedy for the challenges of aging societies. For Germany, surprisingly little is known about trends and social inequalities in the length of late working life. We use data from the German Microcensus to estimate working life expectancy from age 55 onward for the 1941‒1955 birth cohorts. We adjust our calculations of working life expectancy for working hours and present results for western and eastern Germany by gender, education, and occupation. While working life expectancy has increased across cohorts, we find strong regional and socioeconomic disparities. Decomposition analyses show that among males, socioeconomic differences are predominantly driven by variation in employment rates; among women, variation in both employment rates and working hours are highly relevant. Older eastern German women have longer working lives than older western German women, which is likely attributable to the German Democratic Republic legacy of high female employment.

The Dangers of Drawing Cohort Profiles From Period Data: A Research Note.

Drawing cohort profiles and cohort forecasts from grids of age-period data is common practice in demography. In this research note, we (1) show how demographic measures artificially fluctuate when calculated from the diagonals of age-period rates because of timing and cohort-size bias, (2) estimate the magnitude of these biases, and (3) illustrate how prediction intervals for cohort indicators of mortality may become implausible when drawn from Lee-Carter methods and age-period grids. These biases are surprisingly large, even when the cohort profiles are created from single-age, single-year period data. The danger is that we overinterpret deviations from expected trends that were induced by our own data manipulation.

US life expectancy stalls due to cardiovascular disease, not drug deaths.

After decades of robust growth, the rise in US life expectancy stalled after 2010. Explanations for the stall have focused on rising drug-related deaths. Here we show that a stagnating decline in cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality was the main culprit, outpacing and overshadowing the effects of all other causes of death. The CVD stagnation held back the increase of US life expectancy at age 25 y by 1.14 y in women and men, between 2010 and 2017. Rising drug-related deaths had a much smaller effect: 0.1 y in women and 0.4 y in men. Comparisons with other high-income countries reveal that the US CVD stagnation is unusually strong, contributing to a stark mortality divergence between the US and peer nations. Without the aid of CVD mortality declines, future US life expectancy gains must come from other causes-a monumental task given the enormity of earlier declines in CVD death rates. Reversal of the drug overdose epidemic will be beneficial, but insufficient for achieving pre-2010 pace of life expectancy growth.

Forecasting of cohort fertility by educational level in countries with limited data availability: The case of Brazil.

The Brazilian period total fertility rate (PTFR) dropped to 1.8 in 2010 (1.5 among those with high education). Due to shifts in fertility timing, the PTFR may provide a misleading picture of fertility levels. The consequences of these changes for the cohort total fertility rate (CTFR)-a measure free from tempo distortions-and for educational differences in completed fertility remain unknown. Due to data limitations, CTFR forecasts in low- and middle-income countries are rare. We use Brazilian censuses to reconstruct fertility rates indirectly and forecast the CTFR for all women and by educational level. Four forecasting methods indicate that the CTFR is unlikely to fall to the level of the PTFR. Educational differences in the CTFR are likely to be stark, at 0.7-0.9, larger than in many high-income countries with comparable CTFRs. We show how the CTFR can be forecasted in settings with limited data and call for more research on educational differences in completed fertility in low- and middle-income countries.

Flexible transition timing in discrete-time multistate life tables using Markov chains with rewards.

Discrete-time multistate life tables are attractive because they are easier to understand and apply in comparison with their continuous-time counterparts. While such models are based on a discrete time grid, it is often useful to calculate derived magnitudes (e.g. state occupation times), under assumptions which posit that transitions take place at other times, such as mid-period. Unfortunately, currently available models allow very few choices about transition timing. We propose the use of Markov chains with rewards as a general way of incorporating information on the timing of transitions into the model. We illustrate the usefulness of rewards-based multistate life tables by estimating working life expectancies using different retirement transition timings. We also demonstrate that for the single-state case, the rewards approach matches traditional life-table methods exactly. Finally, we provide code to replicate all results from the paper plus R and Stata packages for general use of the method proposed.

Preterm birth and educational disadvantage: Heterogeneous effects.

Although preterm birth is the leading cause of perinatal morbidity and mortality in advanced economies, evidence about the consequences of prematurity in later life is limited. Using Swedish registers for cohorts born 1982-94 (N  =  1,087,750), we examine the effects of preterm birth on school grades at age 16 using sibling fixed effects models. We further examine how school grades are affected by degree of prematurity and the compensating roles of family socio-economic resources and characteristics of school districts. Our results show that the negative effects of preterm birth are observed mostly among children born extremely preterm (<28 weeks); children born moderately preterm (32-<37 weeks) suffer no ill effects. We do not find any evidence for a moderating effect of parental socio-economic resources. Children born extremely preterm and in the top decile of school districts achieve as good grades as children born at full term in an average school district.Supplementary material for this article is available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2022.2080247.

The Contribution of Health Behaviors to Depression Risk Across Birth Cohorts.

BACKGROUND: More recent birth cohorts are at a higher depression risk than cohorts born in the early 20th century. We aimed to investigate to what extent changes in alcohol consumption, smoking, physical activity, and obesity contribute to these birth cohort variations. METHODS: We analyzed panel data from US adults born 1916-1966 enrolled in the Health and Retirement Study (N = 163,760 person-years). We performed a counterfactual decomposition analysis by combining age-period-cohort models with g-computation. We thereby compared the predicted probability of elevated depressive symptoms (CES-D 8 score ≥3) in the natural course to a counterfactual scenario where all birth cohorts had the health behaviors of the 1945 birth cohort. We stratified analyses by sex and race-ethnicity. RESULTS: We estimated that depression risk of the 1916-1949 and 1950-1966 birth cohort would be on average 2.0% (-2.3 to -1.7) and 0.5% (-0.9 to -0.1) higher with the alcohol consumption levels of the 1945 cohort. In the counterfactual with the 1945 BMI distribution, depression risk is on average 2.1% (1.8 to 2.4) higher for the 1916-1940 cohorts and 1.8% (-2.2 to -1.5) lower for the 1950-1966 cohorts. We find no cohort variations in depression risk for smoking and physical activity. The contribution of alcohol is more pronounced for Whites than for other race-ethnicity groups, and the contribution of BMI more pronounced for women than for men. CONCLUSION: Increased obesity levels were associated with exacerbated depression risk in recent birth cohorts in the United States, while drinking patterns only played a minor role.

Leaders and Laggards in Life Expectancy Among European Scholars From the Sixteenth to the Early Twentieth Century.

When did mortality first start to decline, and among whom? We build a large, new data set with more than 30,000 scholars covering the sixteenth to the early twentieth century to analyze the timing of the mortality decline and the heterogeneity in life expectancy gains among scholars in the Holy Roman Empire. The large sample size, well-defined entry into the risk group, and heterogeneity in social status are among the key advantages of the new database. After recovering from a severe mortality crisis in the seventeenth century, life expectancy among scholars started to increase as early as in the eighteenth century, well before the Industrial Revolution. Our finding that members of scientific academies-an elite group among scholars-were the first to experience mortality improvements suggests that 300 years ago, individuals with higher social status already enjoyed lower mortality. We also show, however, that the onset of mortality improvements among scholars in medicine was delayed, possibly because these scholars were exposed to pathogens and did not have germ theory knowledge that might have protected them. The disadvantage among medical professionals decreased toward the end of the nineteenth century. Our results provide a new perspective on the historical timing of mortality improvements, and the database accompanying our study facilitates replication and extensions.

Not Just Later, but Fewer: Novel Trends in Cohort Fertility in the Nordic Countries.

With historically similar patterns of high and stable cohort fertility and high levels of gender equality, the Nordic countries of Sweden, Finland, Norway, Denmark, and Iceland are seen as forerunners in demographic behavior. Furthermore, Nordic fertility trends have strongly influenced fertility theories. However, the period fertility decline that started around 2010 in many countries with relatively high fertility is particularly pronounced in the Nordic countries, raising the question of whether Nordic cohort fertility will also decline and deviate from its historically stable pattern. Using harmonized data across the Nordic countries, we comprehensively describe this period decline and analyze the extent to which it is attributable to tempo or quantum effects. Two key results stand out. First, the decline is mostly attributable to first births but can be observed across all ages from 15 to the mid-30s. This is a reversal from the previous trend in which fertility rates in the early 30s increased relatively steadily in those countries in the period 1980-2010. Second, tempo explains only part of the decline. Forecasts indicate that the average Nordic cohort fertility will decline from 2 children for the 1970 cohort to around 1.8 children for the late 1980s cohorts. Finland diverges from the other countries in terms of its lower expected cohort fertility (below 1.6), and Denmark and Sweden diverge from Finland, Iceland, and Norway in terms of their slower cohort fertility decline. These findings suggest that the conceptualization of the Nordic model of high and stable fertility may need to be revised.