Tuberculosis treatment in the private healthcare sector in India: an analysis of recent trends and volumes using drug sales data.

BACKGROUND: There is a pressing need for systematic approaches for monitoring how much TB treatment is ongoing in the private sector in India: both to cast light on the true scale of the problem, and to help monitor the progress of interventions currently being planned to address this problem. METHODS: We used commercially available data on the sales of rifampicin-containing drugs in the private sector, adjusted for data coverage and indication of use. We examined temporal, statewise trends in volumes (patient-months) of TB treatment from 2013 to 2016. We additionally analysed the proportion of drugs that were sold in combination packaging (designed to simplify TB treatment), or as loose pills. RESULTS: Drug sales suggest a steady trend of TB treatment dispensed by the private sector, from 18.4 million patient-months (95% CI 17.3-20.5) in 2013 to 16.8 patient-months (95% CI 15.5-19.0) in 2016. Overall, seven of 29 states in India accounted for more than 70% of national-level TB treatment volumes, including Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra and Bihar. The overwhelming majority of TB treatment was dispensed not as loose pills, but in combination packaging with other TB drugs, accounting for over 96% of private sector TB treatment in 2017. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest consistent levels of TB treatment in the private sector over the past 4 years, while highlighting specific states that should be prioritized for intervention. Drug sales data can be helpful for monitoring a system as large, disorganised and opaque as India's private sector.

Individuals' Vulnerability Based Active Surveillance for TB: Experiences from India.

Community-based active TB case finding (ACF) has become an essential part of TB elimination efforts in high-burden settings. In settings such as the state of Kerala in India, which has reported an annual decline of 7.5% in the estimated TB incidence since 2015, if ACF is not well targeted, it may end up with a less-than-desired yield, the wastage of scarce resources, and the burdening of health systems. Program managers have recognized the need to optimize resources and workloads, while maximizing the yield, when implementing ACF. We developed and implemented the concept of 'individuals'-vulnerability-based active surveillance' as a substitute for the blanket approach for population/geography-based ACF for TB. Weighted scores, based on an estimate of relative risk, were assigned to reflect the TB vulnerabilities of individuals. Vulnerability data for 22,042,168 individuals were available to the primary healthcare team. Individuals with higher cumulative vulnerability scores were targeted for serial ACF from 2019 onwards. In 2018, when a population-based ACF was conducted, the number needed to screen to diagnose one microbiologically confirmed pulmonary TB case was 3772 and the number needed to test to obtain one microbiologically confirmed pulmonary TB case was 112. The corresponding figures in 2019 for individuals'-vulnerability-based ACF were 881 and 39, respectively. Individuals'-vulnerability-based active surveillance is proposed here as a practical solution to improve health system efficiency in settings where the population is relatively stationary, the TB disease burden is low, and the health system is strong.

Engaging with the private healthcare sector for the control of tuberculosis in India: cost and cost-effectiveness.

BACKGROUND: The control of tuberculosis (TB) in India is complicated by the presence of a large, disorganised private sector where most patients first seek care. Following pilots in Mumbai and Patna (two major cities in India), an initiative known as the 'Public-Private Interface Agency' (PPIA) is now being expanded across the country. We aimed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of scaling up PPIA operations, in line with India's National Strategic Plan for TB control. METHODS: Focusing on Mumbai and Patna, we collected cost data from implementing organisations in both cities and combined this data with models of TB transmission dynamics. Estimating the cost per disability adjusted life years (DALY) averted between 2014 (the start of PPIA scale-up) and 2025, we assessed cost-effectiveness using two willingness-to-pay approaches: a WHO-CHOICE threshold based on per-capita economic productivity, and a more stringent threshold incorporating opportunity costs in the health system. FINDINGS: A PPIA scaled up to ultimately reach 50% of privately treated TB patients in Mumbai and Patna would cost, respectively, US$228 (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 159 to 320) per DALY averted and US$564 (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 409 to 775) per DALY averted. In Mumbai, the PPIA would be cost-effective relative to all thresholds considered. In Patna, if focusing on adherence support, rather than on improved diagnosis, the PPIA would be cost-effective relative to all thresholds considered. These differences between sites arise from variations in the burden of drug resistance: among the services of a PPIA, improved diagnosis (including rapid tests with genotypic drug sensitivity testing) has greatest value in settings such as Mumbai, with a high burden of drug-resistant TB. CONCLUSIONS: To accelerate decline in TB incidence, it is critical first to engage effectively with the private sector in India. Mechanisms such as the PPIA offer cost-effective ways of doing so, particularly when tailored to local settings.

The potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the tuberculosis epidemic a modelling analysis.

BACKGROUND: Routine services for tuberculosis (TB) are being disrupted by stringent lockdowns against the novel SARS-CoV-2 virus. We sought to estimate the potential long-term epidemiological impact of such disruptions on TB burden in high-burden countries, and how this negative impact could be mitigated. METHODS: We adapted mathematical models of TB transmission in three high-burden countries (India, Kenya and Ukraine) to incorporate lockdown-associated disruptions in the TB care cascade. The anticipated level of disruption reflected consensus from a rapid expert consultation. We modelled the impact of these disruptions on TB incidence and mortality over the next five years, and also considered potential interventions to curtail this impact. FINDINGS: Even temporary disruptions can cause long-term increases in TB incidence and mortality. If lockdown-related disruptions cause a temporary 50% reduction in TB transmission, we estimated that a 3-month suspension of TB services, followed by 10 months to restore to normal, would cause, over the next 5 years, an additional 1⋅19 million TB cases (Crl 1⋅06-1⋅33) and 361,000 TB deaths (CrI 333-394 thousand) in India, 24,700 (16,100-44,700) TB cases and 12,500 deaths (8.8-17.8 thousand) in Kenya, and 4,350 (826-6,540) cases and 1,340 deaths (815-1,980) in Ukraine. The principal driver of these adverse impacts is the accumulation of undetected TB during a lockdown. We demonstrate how long term increases in TB burden could be averted in the short term through supplementary "catch-up" TB case detection and treatment, once restrictions are eased. INTERPRETATION: Lockdown-related disruptions can cause long-lasting increases in TB burden, but these negative effects can be mitigated with rapid restoration of TB services, and targeted interventions that are implemented as soon as restrictions are lifted. FUNDING: USAID and Stop TB Partnership.

The potential deployment of a pan-tuberculosis drug regimen in India: A modelling analysis.

There is increasing interest in future, highly-potent 'pan-TB' regimens against tuberculosis (TB), that may be equally effective in both drug-susceptible and rifampicin-resistant (RR) forms of TB. Taking the example of India, the country with the world's largest burden of TB, we show that adoption of these regimens could be: (i) epidemiologically impactful, and (ii) cost-saving to the national TB programme, even if the regimen itself is more costly than current TB treatment. Mathematical modelling suggests that deployment of a pan-TB regimen in 2022 would reduce the annual incidence of TB in 2030 by 23.9% [95% Bayesian credible intervals [CrI] 17.6-30.8%] if used to treat all TB cases, and by 2.30% [95% CrI 1.57-3.48%] if used to treat only RR-TB. Notably, with a regimen costing less than USD 359 (95% CrI 287-441), treating all diagnosed TB cases with the pan-TB regimen yielded greater cost-savings than treating just those diagnosed with RR-TB. One limitation of our approach is that it does not capture the risk of resistance to the new regimen. We discuss ways in which this risk could be mitigated using modern adherence support mechanisms, as well as drug sensitivity testing at the point of TB diagnosis, to prevent new resistant forms from becoming established. A combination of such approaches would be important for maximising the useful lifetime of any future regimen.

Higher risk of developing active TB among adult diabetics exposed to TB during childhood: A study from Kerala, India.

INTRODUCTION: Factors associated with tuberculosis (TB) in Kerala, the southern Indian state that notifies approximately 33 microbiologically confirmed new cases per 100,000 population every year for the past two decades, are still unclear. We did a community-based case-control study in Kollam district, Kerala, to identify the individual-level risk factors for TB. METHODS: Structured questionnaire was applied to 101 microbiologically confirmed new TB cases registered under Revised National Tuberculosis Control Program and 202 age- and gender-matched neighborhood controls without present or past TB. Information was sought on socioeconomic status (SES), smoking, consumption of alcohol, close contact with active TB during childhood or recent past, diabetes mellitus (DM), and other comorbid conditions. RESULTS: Close contact with TB during childhood [odds ratio (OR) 15.88, 95% confidence interval (CI) 3.21-78.55], recent close contact with TB (OR 4.81, 95% CI 2.09-11.07), DM (OR 1.64, 95% CI 1.04-3.06), SES (OR 2.16, 95% CI 1.16-4.03), smoking more than 10 cigarettes/beedis per day (OR 3.32, 95% CI 1.27-8.96), consuming more than 10 standard drinks per week (OR 2.91, 95% CI 1.33-6.37), and the interaction term of having close contact with TB during childhood and DM at present (OR 7.37, 95% CI 1.18-50.29) were found to be associated with TB. CONCLUSION: Close contact with a case of TB, presence of DM, lower SES, smoking, and alcohol consumption were associated with active TB in Kollam. Having close contact with a case of TB during childhood and development of DM in later life together are significantly associated with active TB in the study population. The findings also direct further studies to confirm and explore mechanisms of interaction of diabetes with childhood exposure to TB.

Unacceptable treatment outcomes and associated factors among India's initial cohorts of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) patients under the revised national TB control programme (2007-2011): Evidence leading to policy enhancement.

BACKGROUND: Globally, India has the world's highest burden of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB). Programmatic Management of Drug Resistant TB (PMDT) in India began in 2007 and nationwide coverage was achieved in early 2013. Poor initial microbiological outcomes under the Revised National Tuberculosis Control Programme (RNTCP) prompted detailed analysis. This is the first study on factors significantly associated with poor outcomes in MDR-TB patients treated under the RNTCP. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate initial sputum culture conversion, culture reversion and final treatment outcomes among MDR-TB patients registered in India from 2007 to early 2011 who were treated with a standard 24-month regimen under daily-observed treatment. METHODS: This is a retrospective cohort study. Clinical and microbiological data were abstracted from PMDT records. Initial sputum culture conversion, culture reversion and treatment outcomes were defined by country adaptation of the standard WHO definitions (2008). Cox proportional hazards modeling with logistic regression, multinomial logistic regression and adjusted odds ratio was used to evaluate factors associated with interim and final outcomes respectively, controlling for demographic and clinical characteristics. RESULTS: In the cohort of 3712 MDR-TB patients, 2735 (73.6%) had initial sputum culture conversion at 100 median days (IQR 92-125), of which 506 (18.5%) had culture reversion at 279 median days (IQR 202-381). Treatment outcomes were available for 2264 (60.9%) patients while 1448 (39.0%) patients were still on treatment or yet to have a definite outcome at the time of analysis. Of 2264 patients, 781 (34.5%) had treatment success, 644 (28.4%) died, 670 (29.6%) were lost to follow up, 169 (7.5%) experienced treatment failure or were changed to XDR-TB treatment. Factors significantly associated with either culture non-conversion, culture reversion and/or unfavorable treatment outcomes were baseline BMI < 18; ≥ seven missed doses in intensive phase (IP) and continuation phase (CP); cavitary disease; prior treatment episodes characterized by re-treatment regimen taken twice, longer duration and more episodes of treatment; any weight loss during treatment; males and additional resistance to first line drugs (Ethambutol, Streptomycin). In a subgroup of 104 MDR-TB patients, 62 (59.6%) had Ofloxacin resistance among whom only 25.8% had treatment success, half of the success (54.8%) seen in Ofloxacin sensitive patients. Baseline susceptibility to Ofloxacin (HR 2.04) and Kanamycin (HR 4.55) significantly doubled and quadrupled the chances for culture conversion respectively while baseline susceptibility to Ofloxacin (AOR 0.37) also significantly reduced the odds of unfavorable treatment outcomes (p value ≤0.05) in multinomial logistic regression model. CONCLUSION: India's initial MDR-TB patients' cohort treated under the RNTCP experienced poor treatment outcomes. To address the factors associated with poor treatment outcomes revealed in our study, a systematic multi-pronged approach would be needed. A series of policies and interventions have been developed to address these factors to improve DR-TB treatment outcomes and are being scaled-up in India.

Tuberculosis preventive treatment: the next chapter of tuberculosis elimination in India.

The End TB Strategy envisions a world free of tuberculosis-zero deaths, disease and suffering due to tuberculosis by 2035. This requires reducing the global tuberculosis incidence from >1250 cases per million people to <100 cases per million people within the next two decades. Expanding testing and treatment of tuberculosis infection is critical to achieving this goal. In high-burden countries, like India, the implementation of tuberculosis preventive treatment (TPT) remains a low priority. In this analysis article, we explore potential challenges and solutions of implementing TPT in India. The next chapter in tuberculosis elimination in India will require cost-effective and sustainable interventions aimed at tuberculosis infection. This will require constant innovation, locally driven solutions to address the diverse and dynamic tuberculosis epidemiology and persistent programme monitoring and evaluation. As new tools, regimens and approaches emerge, midcourse adjustments to policy and practice must be adopted. The development and implementation of new tools and strategies will call for close collaboration between local, national and international partners-both public and private-national health authorities, non-governmental organisations, research community and the diagnostic and pharmaceutical industry. Leading by example, India can contribute to global knowledge through operational research and programmatic implementation for combating tuberculosis infection.

Operational research within a Global Fund supported tuberculosis project in India: why, how and its contribution towards change in policy and practice.

BACKGROUND: The Global Fund encourages operational research (OR) in all its grants; however very few reports describe this aspect. In India, Project Axshya was supported by a Global Fund grant to improve the reach and visibility of the government Tuberculosis (TB) services among marginalised and vulnerable communities. OR was incorporated to build research capacity of professionals working with the national TB programme and to generate evidence to inform policies and practices. OBJECTIVES: To describe how Project Axshya facilitated building OR capacity within the country, helped in addressing several TB control priority research questions, documented project activities and their outcomes, and influenced policy and practice. METHODS: From September 2010 to September 2016, three key OR-related activities were implemented. First, practical output-oriented modular training courses were conducted (n = 3) to build research capacity of personnel involved in the TB programme, co-facilitated by The Union, in collaboration with the national TB programme, WHO country office and CDC, Atlanta. Second, two large-scale Knowledge, Attitude and Practice (KAP) surveys were conducted at baseline and mid-project to assess the changes pertaining to TB knowledge, attitudes and practices among the general population, TB patients and health care providers over the project period. Third, studies were conducted to describe the project's core activities and outcomes. RESULTS: In the training courses, 44 participant teams were supported to develop research protocols on topics of national priority, resulting in 28 peer-reviewed scientific publications. The KAP surveys and description of project activities resulted in 14 peer-reviewed publications. Of the published papers at least 12 have influenced change in policy or practice. CONCLUSIONS: OR within a Global Fund supported TB project has resulted in building OR capacity, facilitating research in areas of national priority and influencing policy and practice. We believe this experience will provide guidance for undertaking OR in Global Fund projects.

The number of privately treated tuberculosis cases in India: an estimation from drug sales data.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the amount of tuberculosis managed by the private sector in India is crucial to understanding the true burden of the disease in the country, and thus globally. In the absence of quality surveillance data on privately treated patients, commercial drug sales data offer an empirical foundation for disease burden estimation. METHODS: We used a large, nationally representative commercial dataset on sales of 189 anti-tuberculosis products available in India to calculate the amount of anti-tuberculosis treatment in the private sector in 2013-14. We corrected estimates using validation studies that audited prescriptions against tuberculosis diagnosis, and estimated uncertainty using Monte Carlo simulation. To address implications for numbers of patients with tuberculosis, we explored varying assumptions for average duration of tuberculosis treatment and accuracy of private diagnosis. FINDINGS: There were 17·793 million patient-months (95% credible interval 16·709 million to 19·841 million) of anti-tuberculosis treatment in the private sector in 2014, twice as many as the public sector. If 40-60% of private-sector tuberculosis diagnoses are correct, and if private-sector tuberculosis treatment lasts on average 2-6 months, this implies that 1·19-5·34 million tuberculosis cases were treated in the private sector in 2014 alone. The midpoint of these ranges yields an estimate of 2·2 million cases, two to three times higher than currently assumed. INTERPRETATION: India's private sector is treating an enormous number of patients for tuberculosis, appreciably higher than has been previously recognised. Accordingly, there is a re-doubled need to address this burden and to strengthen surveillance. Tuberculosis burden estimates in India and worldwide require revision. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Can Intensified Tuberculosis Case Finding Efforts at Nutrition Rehabilitation Centers Lead to Pediatric Case Detection in Bihar, India?

INTRODUCTION: Seven district-level Nutritional Rehabilitation Centres (NRCs) in Bihar, India provide clinical and nutritional care for children with severe acute malnutrition (SAM). AIM: To assess whether intensified case finding (ICF) strategies at NRCs can lead to pediatric case detection among SAM children and link them to TB treatment under the Revised National Tuberculosis Control Programme (RNTCP). MATERIALS AND METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted that included medical record reviews of SAM children registered for TB screening and RNTCP care during July-December 2012. RESULTS: Among 440 SAM children screened, 39 (8.8%) were diagnosed with TB. Among these, 34 (87%) initiated TB treatment and 18 (53%) were registered with the RNTCP. Of 16 children not registered under the RNTCP, nine (56%) weighed below six kilograms-the current weight requirement for receiving drugs under RNTCP. CONCLUSION: ICF approaches are feasible at NRCs; however, screening for TB entails diagnostic challenges, especially among SAM children. However, only half of the children diagnosed with TB were treated by the RNTCP. More effort is needed to link this vulnerable population to TB services in addition to introducing child-friendly drug formulations for covering children weighing less than six kilograms.

Innovative social protection mechanism for alleviating catastrophic expenses on multidrug-resistant tuberculosis patients in Chhattisgarh, India.

BACKGROUND: Patients with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) incur huge expenditures for diagnosis and treatment; these costs can be reduced through a well-designed and implemented social health insurance mechanism. The State of Chhattisgarh in India successfully established a partnership between the Revised National TB Control Programme (RNTCP) and the Health Insurance Programme, to form a universal health insurance scheme for all, by establishing Rashtriya Swasthya Bima Yojna (RSBY) and Mukhyamantri Swasthya Bima Yojana (MSBY) MDR-TB packages. The objective of this partnership was to absorb the catastrophic expenses incurred by patients with MDR-TB, from diagnosis to treatment completion, in the public and private sector. This paper documents the initial experience of a tailor-made health insurance programme, linked to covering catastrophic health expenditure for patients with MDR-TB. METHODS: In this descriptive study, data on uptake of insurance claims through innovative MDR-TB packages from January 2013 to April 2014 were collected. A simple survey of costs for clinical investigation and inpatient care was conducted across two major urban districts in Chhattisgarh. In these selected districts, three health facilities from the private sector and one medical college from the public sector with a functional drug-resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB) centre were chosen by the RSBY and MSBY State Nodal Agency to complete a simple, structured questionnaire on existing market rates. The mean costs for clinical investigations and hospital stay were calculated for an individual patient with MDR-TB who would seek services from the private or public sector. RESULTS: A total of 207 insurance claims for RSBY and MSBY MDR-TB packages were processed, of which 20 were from private and 187 from public health establishments, covered under the health insurance programme, free of charge. An estimated catastrophic expenditure, of approximately US$ 20 000, was saved through the RSBY and MSBY health insurance mechanism during the study period. CONCLUSION: The innovative RSBY and MSBY MDR-TB insurance package is a step towards reducing catastrophic expenses associated with treatment for MDR-TB.

Evaluation of TB Case Finding through Systematic Contact Investigation, Chhattisgarh, India.

Rationale. Contact investigation is an established tool for early case detection of tuberculosis (TB). In India, contact investigation is not often conducted, despite national policy, and the yield of contact investigation is not well described. Objective. To determine the yield of evaluating household contacts of sputum smear-positive TB cases in Rajnandgaon district, Chhattisgarh, India. Methods. Among 14 public health care facilities with sputum smear microscopy services, home visits were conducted to identify household contacts of all registered sputum smear-positive TB cases. We used a standardized protocol to screen for clinical symptoms suggestive of active TB with additional referral for chest radiograph and sputa collection. Results. From December 2010 to May 2011, 1,556 household contacts of 312 sputum smear-positive TB cases were identified, of which 148 (9.5%) were symptomatic. Among these, 109 (73.6%) were evaluated by sputum examination resulting in 11 cases (10.1%) of sputum smear-positive TB and 4 cases (3.6%) of smear-negative TB. Household visits contributed additional 63% TB cases compared to passive case detection alone. Conclusion. A standard procedure for conducting household contact investigation identified additional TB cases in the community and offered an opportunity to initiate isoniazid chemoprophylaxis among children.

Airborne infection control in India: Baseline assessment of health facilities.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis transmission in health care settings represents a major public health problem. In 2010, national airborne infection control (AIC) guidelines were adopted in India. These guidelines included specific policies for TB prevention and control in health care settings. However, the feasibility and effectiveness of these guidelines have not been assessed in routine practice. This study aimed to conduct baseline assessments of AIC policies and practices within a convenience sample of 35 health care settings across 3 states in India and to assess the level of implementation at each facility after one year. METHOD: A multi-agency, multidisciplinary panel of experts performed site visits using a standardized risk assessment tool to document current practices and review resource capacity. At the conclusion of each assessment, facility-specific recommendations were provided to improve AIC performance to align with national guidelines. RESULT: Upon initial assessment, AIC systems were found to be poorly developed and implemented. Administrative controls were not commonly practiced and many departments needed renovation to achieve minimum environmental standards. One year after the baseline assessments, there were substantial improvements in both policy and practice. CONCLUSION: A package of capacity building and systems development that followed national guidelines substantially improved implementation of AIC policies and practice.

Intensified tuberculosis case finding among malnourished children in nutritional rehabilitation centres of Karnataka, India: missed opportunities.

BACKGROUND: Severe acute malnutrition (SAM) is the most serious form of malnutrition affecting children under-five and is associated with many infectious diseases including Tuberculosis (TB). In India, nutritional rehabilitation centres (NRCs) have been recently established for the management of SAM including TB. The National TB Programme (NTP) in India has introduced a revised algorithm for diagnosing paediatric TB. We aimed to examine whether NRCs adhered to these guidelines in diagnosing TB among SAM children. METHODS: A cross-sectional study involving review of records of all SAM children identified by health workers during 2012 in six tehsils (sub-districts) with NRCs (population: 1.8 million) of Karnataka, India. RESULTS: Of 1927 identified SAM children, 1632 (85%) reached NRCs. Of them, 1173 (72%) were evaluated for TB and 19(2%) were diagnosed as TB. Of 1173, diagnostic algorithm was followed in 460 (37%). Among remaining 763 not evaluated as per algorithm, tuberculin skin test alone was conducted in 307 (41%), chest radiography alone in 99 (13%) and no investigations in 337 (45%). The yield of TB was higher among children evaluated as per algorithm (4%) as compared to those who were not (0.3%) (OR: 15.3 [95%CI: 3.5-66.3]). Several operational challenges including non-availability of a full-time paediatrician, non-functioning X-ray machine due to frequent power cuts, use of tuberculin with suboptimal strength and difficulties in adhering to a complex diagnostic algorithm were observed. CONCLUSION: This study showed that TB screening in NRCs was sub-optimal in Karnataka. Some children did not reach the NRC, while many of those who did were either not or sub-optimally evaluated for TB. This study pointed to a number of operational issues that need to be addressed if this collaborative strategy is to identify more TB cases amongst malnourished children in India.