Climatic suitability of Aedes albopictus in Europe referring to climate change projections: comparison of mechanistic and correlative niche modelling approaches.

The Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, is capable of transmitting a broad range of viruses to humans. Since its introduction at the end of the 20th century, it has become well established in large parts of southern Europe. As future expansion as a result of climate change can be expected, determining the current and projected future climatic suitability of this invasive mosquito in Europe is of interest. Several studies have tried to detect the potential habitats for this species, but differing data sources and modelling approaches must be considered when interpreting the findings. Here, various modelling methodologies are compared with special emphasis on model set-up and study design. Basic approaches and model algorithms for the projection of spatio-temporal trends within the 21st century differ substantially. Applied methods range from mechanistic models (e.g. overlay of climatic constraints based on geographic information systems or rather process-based approaches) to correlative niche models. We conclude that spatial characteristics such as introduction gateways and dispersal pathways need to be considered. Laboratory experiments addressing the climatic constraints of the mosquito are required for improved modelling results. However, the main source of uncertainty remains the insufficient knowledge about the species' ability to adapt to novel environments.

[Ixodes ricinus, transmitted diseases and reservoirs]. / Ixodes ricinus, malattie trasmesse e reservoirs.

The tick Ixodes ricinus has been recorded in most Italian regions especially in thermo-mesophilous woods and shrubby habitats where the relative humidity allow the tick to complete its 3 year developmental cycle, as predicted for the European climatic ranges. This tick acts both as vector and reservoir for a series of wildlife zoonotic pathogens, especially the agents of Lyme diseases, Tick borne encephalitis and Human Granulocytic Ehrlichiosis, which are emerging in most of Europe. To assess the spatial distribution of these pathogens and the infection risk for humans and animals within the territory of the Province of Trento, we carried out a long term study using a combination of eco-epidemiological surveys and mathematical modelling. An extensive tick collection with a GIS based habitat suitability analysis allowed us to identify the areas where tick occurs at various density. To identify the areas with higher infection risk, we estimated the values of R0 for Borrelia burgdorferi s.l., TBE virus and Anaplasma phagocytophila under different ecological conditions. We assessed the infection prevalence in the vector and in the wildlife reservoir species that play a central role in the persistence of these infections, ie the small mammals A. flavicollis and C. glareolus. We also considered the double effect of roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) which act as reservoir for A. phagocytophila but is an incompetent host for B. burgdorferi and TBE virus, thus reducing the infection prevalence in ticks of these last two pathogens. Infection prevalence with B. burgdorferi and A. phagocytophila in the vector was assessed by PCR screening 1212 I. ricinus nymphs collected by dragging in six main study areas during 2002. The mean infection prevalence recorded was 1.32% for B. burgdorferi s.l. and 9.84% for A. phagocytophila. Infection prevalence in nymphs with TBE virus, as assessed in a previous study was 0.03%. Infection prevalence in rodents was assessed by screening (with ELISA and PCR) tissues and blood samples collected from 367 rodent individuals trapped extensively during 2002 within 6 main study areas. A. flavicollis (N=238) was found to be infected with all three pathogens investigated, with infection prevalence ranging from 3.3% for TBE virus to 11.7% for A. phagocytophila, and 16.6% with B. burgdorferi s.l. C. glareolus (N=108) showed an infection prevalence of 6.5% with A. phagocytophila and 12.7% with B. burgdorferi s.l., while no individuals were infected with TBE virus. We also screened 98 spleen samples collected from roe deer with PCR, resulting in a mean prevalence of infection with A. phagocytophila of 19.8%. Using a deterministic model we explored the condition for diseases persistence under different rodent and roe deer densities. R0 values resulted largely above 1 for B. burgdorferi s.l. in the vast majority of the areas classified as suitable for I. ricinus occurrence in Trentino, while the condition for TBE persistence appeared to be more restricted by a combination of climatic condition and host densities.

Tick infestation on roe deer in relation to geographic and remotely sensed climatic variables in a tick-borne encephalitis endemic area.

Roe deer Capreolus capreolus are among the most important feeding hosts for the sheep tick Ixodes ricinus, thus contributing to the occurrence of tick-borne diseases in Europe. Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE), which is transmitted by co-feeding of larvae and nymphs on rodents, requires precise climatic conditions to occur. We used roe deer as sentinels for potential circulation of TBE virus in Northern Italy, by examining the association between tick infestation, occurrence of TBE human cases, geographical and climatic parameters. Tick infestation on roe deer, and particularly frequency of co-feeding, was clearly associated with the geographic location and the autumnal cooling rate. Consistently, TBE occurrence in humans was geographically related to co-feeding tick abundance. The surveillance of tick infestation on roe deer, combined with remotely sensed climatic data, could therefore be used as an inexpensive early risk assessment tool of favourable conditions for TBE emergence and persistence in humans.