C-reactive protein level and microbial aetiology in patients hospitalised with acute exacerbation of COPD.

Both viruses and bacteria are thought to cause exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD); however, the relative importance of each remains uncertain. C-reactive protein (CRP) levels increase during exacerbations but the relationship with aetiology is not established. We aimed to explore the relationship between serum CRP and the rate of detection of viruses and bacteria. This was a prospectively recruited, observational study of patients hospitalised with exacerbations of COPD. Nasopharyngeal swabs were tested for respiratory viruses by reverse transcriptase-PCR. Sputum and blood were collected for bacterial culture and urine tested for pneumococcal antigen. CRP levels were measured on sera. CRP and other factors associated with viral, bacterial or mixed detection were assessed using multiple logistic regression analysis. 264 patients with exacerbations of COPD were studied: 26% tested positive for respiratory viruses only, 13% had bacteria only, 12% had mixed viral/bacterial detection, and 49% had no pathogens detected. CRP level and temperature were strongly associated with viral detection rate (p<0.001 and p=0.004, respectively) and mixed viral/bacterial detection rate (p=0.02 and p=0.03, respectively) on multivariate analysis. Bacterial detection rate was not associated with CRP level or body temperature. This study supports the role of viruses as important aetiological agents causing exacerbations of COPD.

Differences between asthmatics and nonasthmatics hospitalised with influenza A infection.

Asthmatics hospitalised because of influenza A infection are less likely to require intensive care or die compared with nonasthmatics. The reasons for this are unknown. We performed a retrospective analysis of data on 1520 patients admitted to 75 UK hospitals with confirmed influenza A/H1N1 2009 infection. A multivariable model was used to investigate reasons for the association between asthma and severe outcomes (intensive care unit support or death). Asthmatics were less likely than nonasthmatics to have severe outcome (11.2% versus 19.8%, unadjusted OR 0.51, 95% CI 0.36-0.72) despite a greater proportion requiring oxygen on admission (36.4% versus 26%, unadjusted OR 1.63) and similar rates of pneumonia (17.1% versus 16.6%, unadjusted OR 1.04). The results of multivariable logistic regression suggest the association of asthma with outcome (adjusted OR 0.62, 95% CI 0.36-1.05; p=0.075) are explained by pre-admission inhaled corticosteroid use (adjusted OR 0.34, 95% CI 0.18-0.66) and earlier admission (≤ 4 days from symptom onset) (adjusted OR 0.60, 95% CI 0.38-0.94). In asthmatics, systemic corticosteroids were associated with a decreased likelihood of severe outcomes (adjusted OR 0.36, 95% CI 0.18-0.72). Corticosteroid use and earlier hospital admission explained the association of asthma with less severe outcomes in hospitalised patients.

Trial of 2009 influenza A (H1N1) monovalent MF59-adjuvanted vaccine.

BACKGROUND: The 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus has emerged to cause the first pandemic of the 21st century. Development of effective vaccines is a public health priority. METHODS: We conducted a single-center study, involving 176 adults, 18 to 50 years of age, to test the monovalent influenza A/California/2009 (H1N1) surface-antigen vaccine, in both MF59-adjuvanted and nonadjuvanted forms. Subjects were randomly assigned to receive two intramuscular injections of vaccine containing 7.5 microg of hemagglutinin on day 0 in each arm or one injection on day 0 and the other on day 7, 14, or 21; or two 3.75-microg doses of MF59-adjuvanted vaccine, or 7.5 or 15 microg of nonadjuvanted vaccine, administered 21 days apart. Antibody responses were measured by means of hemagglutination-inhibition assay and a microneutralization assay on days 0, 14, 21, and 42 after injection of the first dose. RESULTS: The most frequent local and systemic reactions were pain at the injection site and muscle aches, noted in 70% and 42% of subjects, respectively; reactions were more common with the MF59-adjuvanted vaccine than with nonadjuvanted vaccine. Three subjects reported fever, with a temperature of 38 degrees C or higher, after either dose. Antibody titers, expressed as geometric means, were higher at day 21 among subjects who had received one dose of MF59-adjuvanted vaccine than among those who had received one dose of nonadjuvanted vaccine (P<0.001 by the microneutralization assay). By day 21, hemagglutination-inhibition and microneutralization antibody titers of 1:40 or more were seen in 77 to 96% and 92 to 100% of subjects receiving MF59-adjuvanted vaccine, respectively, and in 63 to 72% and 67 to 76% of those receiving nonadjuvanted vaccine, respectively. By day 42, after two doses of vaccine, hemagglutination-inhibition and microneutralization antibody titers of 1:40 or more were seen in 92 to 100% and 100% of recipients of MF59-adjuvanted vaccine, respectively, and in 74 to 79% and 78 to 83% of recipients of nonadjuvanted vaccine, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Monovalent 2009 influenza A (H1N1) MF59-adjuvanted vaccine generates antibody responses likely to be associated with protection after a single dose is administered. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00943358).

Predictors of clinical outcome in a national hospitalised cohort across both waves of the influenza A/H1N1 pandemic 2009-2010 in the UK.

BACKGROUND: Although generally mild, the 2009-2010 influenza A/H1N1 pandemic caused two major surges in hospital admissions in the UK. The characteristics of patients admitted during successive waves are described. METHODS: Data were systematically obtained on 1520 patients admitted to 75 UK hospitals between May 2009 and January 2010. Multivariable analyses identified factors predictive of severe outcome. RESULTS: Patients aged 5-54 years were over-represented compared with winter seasonal admissions for acute respiratory infection, as were non-white ethnic groups (first wave only). In the second wave patients were less likely to be school age than in the first wave, but their condition was more likely to be severe on presentation to hospital and they were more likely to have delayed admission. Overall, 45% had comorbid conditions, 16.5% required high dependency (level 2) or critical (level 3) care and 5.3% died. As in 1918-1919, the likelihood of severe outcome by age followed a W-shaped distribution. Pre-admission antiviral drug use decreased from 13.3% to 10% between the first and second waves (p=0.048), while antibiotic prescribing increased from 13.6% to 21.6% (p<0.001). Independent predictors of severe outcome were age 55-64 years, chronic lung disease (non-asthma, non-chronic obstructive pulmonary disease), neurological disease, recorded obesity, delayed admission (≥5 days after illness onset), pneumonia, C-reactive protein ≥100 mg/litre, and the need for supplemental oxygen or intravenous fluid replacement on admission. CONCLUSIONS: There were demographic, ethnic and clinical differences between patients admitted with pandemic H1N1 infection and those hospitalised during seasonal influenza activity. Despite national policies favouring use of antiviral drugs, few patients received these before admission and many were given antibiotics.

Respiratory virus transmission using a novel viral challenge model: An observational cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: Knowledge of Acute Respiratory virus Infection (ARI) is limited in relation to their substantial global burden. We completed a feasibility study of a novel method to study the natural transmission of respiratory viruses from young children to adults in hospital. METHODS: Between September 2012 and May 2015, we recruited healthy adults (contacts) and paediatric inpatients with ARIs (index) presenting to the University Hospitals Leicester NHS Trust, Leicester, UK. We took nose and throat swabs from all participants prior to controlled, 30 minute interactions between the children with ARIs and adult contacts. Contacts recorded symptoms and provided four nose and throat swabs over ten days post-interaction, which were tested for a panel of respiratory viruses to assess transmission. RESULTS: 111 interactions occurred between children with ARIs and adult contacts. Respiratory viruses were detected in 103 of 111 children (93%), most commonly rhinoviruses (RVs) (67 of 103, 65%). Transmission to an adult contact occurred in 15 (14·6%) of 103 interactions and was inversely associated with the contact being male (adjusted OR 0·12; 95% CI 0·02-0·72). CONCLUSION: Using a novel methodology, we found that natural transmission of ARIs occurred in 15% of an infected child's contacts following a 30 minute interaction, primarily by RVs and when the contact was female. Our model has key advantages in comparison with human challenge studies making it well-suited for further studies of respiratory virus transmission, disease pathogenesis, and clinical and public health interventions to interrupt transmission.

Nosocomial pandemic (H1N1) 2009, United Kingdom, 2009-2010.

To determine clinical characteristics of patients hospitalized in the United Kingdom with pandemic (H1N1) 2009, we studied 1,520 patients in 75 National Health Service hospitals. We characterized patients who acquired influenza nosocomially during the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 outbreak. Of 30 patients, 12 (80%) of 15 adults and 14 (93%) of 15 children had serious underlying illnesses. Only 12 (57%) of 21 patients who received antiviral therapy did so within 48 hours after symptom onset, but 53% needed escalated care or mechanical ventilation; 8 (27%) of 30 died. Despite national guidelines and standardized infection control procedures, nosocomial transmission remains a problem when influenza is prevalent. Health care workers should be routinely offered influenza vaccine, and vaccination should be prioritized for all patients at high risk. Staff should remain alert to the possibility of influenza in patients with complex clinical problems and be ready to institute antiviral therapy while awaiting diagnosis during influenza outbreaks.

Clinical and laboratory features distinguishing pandemic H1N1 influenza-related pneumonia from interpandemic community-acquired pneumonia in adults.

BACKGROUND: Early identification of patients with H1N1 influenza-related pneumonia is desirable for the early instigation of antiviral agents. A study was undertaken to investigate whether adults admitted to hospital with H1N1 influenza-related pneumonia could be distinguished clinically from patients with non-H1N1 community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). METHODS: Between May 2009 and January 2010, clinical and epidemiological data of patients with confirmed H1N1 influenza infection admitted to 75 hospitals in the UK were collected by the Influenza Clinical Information Network (FLU-CIN). Adults with H1N1 influenza-related pneumonia were identified and compared with a prospective study cohort of adults with CAP hospitalised between September 2008 and June 2010, excluding those admitted during the period of the pandemic. RESULTS: Of 1046 adults with confirmed H1N1 influenza infection in the FLU-CIN cohort, 254 (25%) had H1N1 influenza-related pneumonia on admission to hospital. In-hospital mortality of these patients was 11.4% compared with 14.0% in patients with inter-pandemic CAP (n=648). A multivariate logistic regression model was generated by assigning one point for each of five clinical criteria: age ≤ 65 years, mental orientation, temperature ≥ 38 °C, leucocyte count ≤ 12 × 10(9)/l and bilateral radiographic consolidation. A score of 4 or 5 predicted H1N1 influenza-related pneumonia with a positive likelihood ratio of 9.0. A score of 0 or 1 had a positive likelihood ratio of 75.7 for excluding it. CONCLUSION: There are substantial clinical differences between H1N1 influenza-related pneumonia and inter-pandemic CAP. A model based on five simple clinical criteria enables the early identification of adults admitted with H1N1 influenza-related pneumonia.

Stockpiling prepandemic influenza vaccines: a new cornerstone of pandemic preparedness plans.

The history of pandemic influenza, along with the evolving epizootic of the highly pathogenic avian influenza A (H5N1) virus and the severity of associated human infections, serve as a warning to the world of the threat of another influenza pandemic. Conservative estimates suggest that up to 350 million people could die and many more would be affected, causing disruption to health-care systems, society, and the world's economy. WHO has encouraged countries to prepare in advance by developing influenza pandemic preparedness plans that involve public-health and pharmaceutical interventions. Vaccination is a cornerstone of these plans; however, a pandemic vaccine cannot be manufactured in advance because the next pandemic virus cannot be predicted. The concepts of vaccine stockpiling and prepandemic vaccination have thus become attractive. Human H5N1 vaccines are currently available and can induce heterotypic immunity. WHO and governments should give urgent consideration to the use of these vaccines for the priming of individuals or communities who would be at greatest risk of infection if an H5N1 influenza pandemic were to emerge.

Cost-effectiveness and value of information analyses of neuraminidase inhibitors for the treatment of influenza.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the cost-effectiveness of alternative strategies for the treatment of suspected influenza in otherwise healthy adults and to identify future research priorities using value of information analysis. METHODS: A decision model was used to estimate the costs and effects, in terms of quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) of amantadine, zanamivir, and oseltamivir for the treatment of influenza in otherwise healthy adults using data predominantly from meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis using Monte Carlo simulation was conducted. The expected value of perfect information for the entire model and for individual parameters was calculated. RESULTS: Based on mean costs and effects, zanamivir is dominated by oseltamivir. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for amantadine (compared with no treatment) is pound 11,000 and pound 44,000 for oseltamivir (compared with amantadine). The probability that amantadine is cost-effective at a willingness to pay of pound 30,000 per QALY is 0.74, falling to 0.49 at pound 20,000 per QALY. Global expected value of perfect information (EVPI) is pound 2 m over 15 years if a willingness to pay threshold of pound 30,000 per QALY is assumed rising to pound 9.6 m at pound 45,000 per QALY. EVPI for only one parameter exceeds pound 500,0000 at pound 30,000 per QALY: the quality of life for untreated influenza. CONCLUSIONS: At traditionally accepted values of willingness to pay for health benefits, it is unlikely that additional research would be an efficient use of scarce resources. The only exception to this would be to examine the health-related quality of life impact of influenza in an untreated patient group. If a higher threshold value were acceptable, there are a small group of parameters that may warrant further investigation. These would, however, require comparative, potentially expensive, research studies.

Viral load is strongly associated with length of stay in adults hospitalised with viral acute respiratory illness.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory viruses are detectable in a large proportion of adults hospitalised with acute respiratory illness. For influenza and other viruses there is evidence that viral load and persistence are associated with certain clinical outcomes but it is not known if there is an association between viral load and hospital length of stay. METHODS: 306 adults hospitalised with viral acute respiratory illness were studied. Associations between viral load and length of stay were examined. Multiple linear regression analysis was performed to control for age, comorbidity, influenza vaccine status, duration of illness prior to hospitalisation, bacterial co-infection, clinical group and virus subtype. RESULTS: High viral load was associated with a longer duration of hospitalisation for all patients (p < 0.0001). This remained significant across all virus types and clinical groups and when adjusted for age, comorbidity, duration of illness prior to hospitalisation, bacterial co-infection and other factors. CONCLUSIONS: High viral loads are associated with prolonged hospital length of stay in adults with viral acute respiratory illness. This further supports existing evidence demonstrating that viral acute respiratory illness is a viral load driven process and suggests that viral load could be used in clinical practise to predict prolonged hospitalisation and prioritise antivirals. International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial Number (ISRCTN): 21521552.

The environmental deposition of influenza virus from patients infected with influenza A(H1N1)pdm09: Implications for infection prevention and control.

In a multi-center, prospective, observational study over two influenza seasons, we sought to quantify and correlate the amount of virus recovered from the nares of infected subjects with that recovered from their immediate environment in community and hospital settings. We recorded the symptoms of adults and children with A(H1N1)pdm09 infection, took nasal swabs, and sampled touched surfaces and room air. Forty-two infected subjects were followed up. The mean duration of virus shedding was 6.2 days by PCR (Polymerase Chain Reaction) and 4.2 days by culture. Surface swabs were collected from 39 settings; 16 (41%) subject locations were contaminated with virus. Overall, 33 of the 671 (4.9%) surface swabs were PCR positive for influenza, of which two (0.3%) yielded viable virus. On illness Day 3, subjects yielding positive surface samples had significantly higher nasal viral loads (geometric mean ratio 25.7; 95% CI 1.75, 376.0, p=0.021) and a positive correlation (r=0.47, p=0.006) was observed between subject nasal viral loads and viral loads recovered from the surfaces around them. Room air was sampled in the vicinity of 12 subjects, and PCR positive samples were obtained for five (42%) samples. Influenza virus shed by infected subjects did not detectably contaminate the vast majority of surfaces sampled. We question the relative importance of the indirect contact transmission of influenza via surfaces, though our data support the existence of super-spreaders via this route. The air sampling results add to the accumulating evidence that supports the potential for droplet nuclei (aerosol) transmission of influenza.

Influenza.

Although most influenza infections are self-limited, few other diseases exert such a huge toll of suffering and economic loss. Despite the importance of influenza, there had been, until recently, little advance in its control since amantadine was licensed almost 40 years ago. During the past decade, evidence has accrued on the protection afforded by inactivated vaccines and the safety and efficacy in children of live influenza-virus vaccines. There have been many new developments in vaccine technology. Moreover, work on viral neuraminidase has led to the licensing of potent selective antiviral drugs, and economic decision modelling provides further justification for annual vaccination and a framework for the use of neuraminidase inhibitors. Progress has also been made on developing near-patient testing for influenza that may assist individual diagnosis or the recognition of widespread virus circulation, and so optimise clinical management. Despite these advances, the occurrence of avian H5N1, H9N2, and H7N7 influenza in human beings and the rapid global spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome are reminders of our vulnerability to an emerging pandemic. The contrast between recent cases of H5N1 infection, associated with high mortality, and the typically mild, self-limiting nature of human infections with avian H7N7 and H9N2 influenza shows the gaps in our understanding of molecular correlates of pathogenicity and underlines the need for continuing international research into pandemic influenza. Improvements in animal and human surveillance, new approaches to vaccination, and increasing use of vaccines and antiviral drugs to combat annual influenza outbreaks are essential to reduce the global toll of pandemic and interpandemic influenza.

Safety and antigenicity of whole virus and subunit influenza A/Hong Kong/1073/99 (H9N2) vaccine in healthy adults: phase I randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: In 1999, avian influenza A/Hong Kong/1073/99 (H9N2) virus emerged as a pandemic threat to human beings. We aimed to assess safety, tolerability, and antigenicity of whole virus and subunit H9N2 vaccines in healthy volunteers. METHODS: In a phase I randomised trial we randomly assigned 60 participants to whole virus or subunit H9N2 vaccine. Two doses of 7.5 microg, 15 microg, or 30 microg haemagglutinin influenza A H9N2 vaccine, were given 3 weeks apart. We measured antibody responses by haemagglutination-inhibition and microneutralisation. The primary outcome was geometric mean antibody titre 21 days after vaccination. Analysis was per protocol. FINDINGS: Both vaccines were safe and well tolerated. The antibody titres after vaccination did not differ significantly between subunit and whole virus vaccine. 24 of 60 prevaccination serum samples had unexpected reactivity to H9N2, but only in participants older than 32 years, in whom one dose of either vaccine evoked antibody responses associated with protection. In participants aged 32 years or younger, antibody responses to one dose of whole virus or subunit vaccine were poor, fulfilling none of the criteria used for yearly relicensing of interpandemic vaccines. Whole virus vaccine produced a significantly higher probability of seroconversion compared with subunit virus for this age-group. INTERPRETATION: In immunologically naive patients whole-virus vaccine produced better responses than subunit vaccine. Two doses of subunit or whole virus vaccine would leave a large proportion of the naive population (< or =32 years) unprotected against A/Hong Kong/1073/99 (H9N2). Primed patients should be protected with a single dose of either vaccine.

Confronting the avian influenza threat: vaccine development for a potential pandemic.

Sporadic human infection with avian influenza viruses has raised concern that reassortment between human and avian subtypes could generate viruses of pandemic potential. Vaccination is the principal means to combat the impact of influenza. During an influenza pandemic the immune status of the population would differ from that which exists during interpandemic periods. An emerging pandemic virus will create a surge in worldwide vaccine demand and new approaches in immunisation strategies may be needed to ensure optimum protection of unprimed individuals when vaccine antigen may be limited. The manufacture of vaccines from pathogenic avian influenza viruses by traditional methods is not feasible for safety reasons as well as technical issues. Strategies adopted to overcome these issues include the use of reverse genetic systems to generate reassortant strains, the use of baculovirus-expressed haemagglutinin or related non-pathogenic avian influenza strains, and the use of adjuvants to enhance immunogenicity. In clinical trials, conventional surface-antigen influenza virus vaccines produced from avian viruses have proved poorly immunogenic in immunologically naive populations. Adjuvanted or whole-virus preparations may improve immunogenicity and allow sparing of antigen.

Influenza-related hospitalizations among young children in Leicestershire.

BACKGROUND: Population-based data on influenza hospitalizations are unavailable in the United Kingdom, but they represent an essential component of health economic analyses that could support the use of vaccines and antiinfluenza drugs in healthy children. We collected data on hospitalizations for influenza infections among young children in Leicester, UK. METHODS: This prospective, longitudinal, noninterventional single center study was conducted at the Children's Hospital in Leicester, which provides inpatient pediatric care to a total population of approximately 1 million. We studied children <6 years of age between October 14, 2001, and June 30, 2002, who were admitted to the hospital with an acute respiratory tract illness, seizures, specified acute febrile gastrointestinal illness or any acute febrile illness or apnea or other life-threatening events in infants <12 months of age. Nasopharyngeal swabs obtained within 24 h of hospital admission were examined for influenza, respiratory syncytial virus and human metapneumovirus by PCR. RESULTS: Of 7165 clinical episodes that were assessed in the Children's Hospital between October 1 and June 30, 2441 (34.1%) were caused by acute respiratory illness. Overall 33 (5.4%) of 613 children analyzed had an influenza A or B virus infection, including 19 (5.0%) of 381 children with acute respiratory illness and 14 (6.0%) of the remaining 232 children. CONCLUSIONS: Influenza is evidently an important cause of hospitalization among young children, even during limited outbreaks of influenza. Further analyses will enable us to estimate age-related admission rates for influenza and to compare the burden from influenza with that for respiratory syncytial virus and human metapneumovirus.

Adults hospitalised with acute respiratory illness rarely have detectable bacteria in the absence of COPD or pneumonia; viral infection predominates in a large prospective UK sample.

OBJECTIVES: Many adult patients hospitalised with acute respiratory illness have viruses detected but the overall importance of viral infection compared to bacterial infection is unclear. METHODS: Patients were recruited from two acute hospital sites in Leicester (UK) over 3 successive winters. Samples were taken for viral and bacterial testing. RESULTS: Of the 780 patients hospitalised with acute respiratory illness 345 (44%) had a respiratory virus detected. Picornaviruses were the most commonly isolated viruses (detected in 23% of all patients). Virus detection rates exceeded 50% in patients with exacerbation of asthma (58%), acute bronchitis and Influenza-like-illness (64%), and ranged from 30 to 50% in patients with an exacerbation of COPD (38%), community acquired pneumonia (36%) and congestive cardiac failure (31%). Bacterial detection was relatively frequent in patients with exacerbation of COPD and pneumonia (25% and 33% respectively) but was uncommon in all other groups. Antibiotic use was high across all clinical groups (76% overall) and only 21% of all antibiotic use occurred in patients with detectable bacteria. CONCLUSIONS: Respiratory viruses are the predominant detectable aetiological agents in most hospitalised adults with acute respiratory illness. Antibiotic usage in hospital remains excessive including in clinical conditions associated with low rates of bacterial detection. Efforts at reducing excess antibiotic use should focus on these groups as a priority. Registered International Standard Controlled Trial Number: 21521552.