Indirect Estimation of the Timing of First Union Dissolution With Incomplete Marriage Histories.

The lack of nationally representative data with detailed marriage histories in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) impedes a comprehensive understanding of essential aspects of union dissolution, such as the timing of first union dissolution, in these countries. We propose a method for estimating quantum-adjusted measures of the timing of first union dissolution from incomplete marriage histories. This method, indirect life table of first union dissolution (ILTUD), estimates the first union survival function from a simple tabulation of ever-married women by duration since first union, classified by union dissolution status (intact vs. dissolved first union). It then uses the relationships between life table functions to generate the distribution of marriages ending each year (θt) for a given marriage cohort. Using this distribution, ILTUD generates quantum-adjusted first union survival rates from which the percentiles of first union dissolution are calculated. ILTUD estimates are consistent with estimates produced using traditional statistical methods, such as the Kaplan-Meier estimator. In addition, ILTUD is simple to implement and has minimal data requirements, which are available in most nationally representative surveys. Thus, the ILTUD method has the potential to broaden our understanding of union dissolution dynamics in LMICs.

Body mass index in early adulthood and transition to first birth: Racial/ethnic and sex differences in the United States NLSY79 Cohort.

Studies show that body mass index during early adulthood ('early BMI') predicts the transition to first birth, but early childbearers tend to be omitted from such studies. This sample selection distorts the prevalence of childlessness, and particularly the racial/ethnic heterogeneity therein, because first birth timing differs by race/ethnicity. We imputed pre-parenthood early BMI for a larger sample, including early childbearers, for the same United States NLSY79 data used in a previous study and simulated differences in the probability of childlessness at age 40+ using posterior distributions based on the Bayesian framework. Obesity was consistently associated with higher childlessness across racial/ethnic groups in both sexes, but only among obese women were first births delayed until after early adulthood. The overall lower childlessness among the underweight women appeared largely driven by Black women. Our findings on the intersectionality of race/ethnicity and sex in the BMI-childlessness pathways encourage research on the underlying mechanisms and on more recent cohorts across different societies.

Preferences, Partners, and Parenthood: Linking Early Fertility Desires, Marriage Timing, and Achieved Fertility.

In the United States, underachieving fertility desires is more common among women with higher levels of education and those who delay first marriage beyond their mid-20s. However, the relationship between these patterns, and particularly the degree to which marriage postponement explains lower fertility among the highly educated, is not well understood. We use data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 cohort to analyze differences in parenthood and achieved parity for men and women, focusing on the role of marriage timing in achieving fertility goals over the life course. We expand on previous research by distinguishing between entry into parenthood and average parity among parents as pathways to underachieving, by considering variation in the impact of marriage timing by education and by stage of the life course, and by comparing results for men and women. We find that women with a bachelor's degree who desired three or more children are less likely to become mothers relative to women with the same desired family size who did not attend college. Conditional on becoming mothers, however, women with at least a bachelor's degree do not have lower completed family size. No comparable fatherhood difference by desired family size is present. Postponing marriage beyond age 30 is associated with lower proportions of parenthood but not with lower parity among parents. Age patterns are similar for women and men, pointing at social rather than biological factors driving the underachievement of fertility goals.

Partners' Educational Pairings and Fertility Across Europe.

We provide new evidence on the education-fertility relationship by using EU-SILC panel data on 24 European countries to investigate how couples' educational pairings predict their childbearing behavior. We focus on differences in first-, second-, and third-birth rates among couples with varying combinations of partners' education. Our results show important differences in how education relates to parity progressions depending on the education of the partner. First, highly educated homogamous couples show a distinct childbearing behavior in most country clusters. They tend to postpone the first birth most and display the highest second- and third-birth rates. Second, contrary to what may be expected based on the "new home economics" approach, hypergamous couples with a highly educated male and a lower-educated female partner display among the lowest second-birth transitions. Our findings underscore the relevance of interacting both partners' education for a better understanding of the education-fertility relationship.

Late, But Not Too Late? Postponement of First Birth Among Highly Educated US Women.

We examine the link between the postponement of parenthood and fertility outcomes among highly educated women in the USA born in 1920-1986, using data from the CPS June Supplement 1979-2016. We argue that the postponement-low fertility nexus noted in demographic and biomedical research is especially relevant for women who pursue postgraduate education because of the potential overlap of education completion, early career stages, and family formation. The results show that women with postgraduate education differ from women with college education in terms of the timing of the first birth, childlessness, and completed fertility. While the postponement trend, which began with the cohorts born in the 1940s, has continued among highly educated women in the USA, its associations with childlessness and completed parity have changed considerably over subsequent cohorts. We delineate five distinct postponement phases over the 80-year observation window, consistent with variation over time in the prevalence of strategies for combining tertiary education and employment with family formation.

Stillbirths in Germany: On the rise, but no additional increases during the first COVID-19 lockdown.

OBJECTIVE: To examine possible changes in the rate of stillbirths in Germany during the first COVID-19 lockdown. METHODS: Population-level data of live births and stillbirths occurring between January 1995 and July 2020 were used and negative binomial regression was applied to estimate the rate of stillbirths in this period. The actual rate was compared to the expected figure for 2020. RESULTS: A steady increase in stillbirths was detected in Germany since 2013. The stillbirth rate for January to July 2020 (4.148) was slightly lower than that of the same period in 2019 (4.242). Furthermore, all monthly rates of stillbirths during the first half of 2020 lie inside the 95% prediction interval of expected stillbirth rates for this period. CONCLUSION: A growing body of studies on the indirect effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on stillbirths shows mixed and context-dependent evidence. In contrast to other European countries, stillbirth rates have been on the rise in Germany in the last decade. However, stillbirth rates during the first half of 2020 were not higher than expected. The results suggest that stillbirth rates have not changed during the first-wave COVID-19 lockdown in this high-income setting. However, further studies on the causes of the increasing trend in stillbirths in Germany are needed.