Incidence of late recurrence and second primary cancers 5-10 years after non-metastatic colorectal cancer.

The fraction of patients who are cancer-free survivors 5 years after curative-intended surgery for colorectal cancer (CRC) is increasing, suggesting that extending surveillance beyond 5 years may be indicated. Here we estimate the incidence of late recurrence, metachronous CRC, and second primary cancers 5-10 years postoperative. All patients resected for UICC stage I-III CRC in Denmark through 2004-2013 were identified. Through individual-level linkage of nationwide health registry data, recurrence status was determined using a validated algorithm. Cancer-free survivors 5 years after surgery, were included. Cumulative incidence functions (CIF) of late recurrence, metachronous CRC, and second primary cancer 5-10 years postoperative were constructed. Subdistribution hazards ratios (sHR) were computed using Fine-Gray regression. Among 8883 patients, 370 developed late recurrence (5-10-year CIF = 4.1%, 95%CI: 3.7%-4.6%), 270 metachronous CRC (5-10-year CIF = 3.0%, 95%CI: 2.7%-3.4%), and 635 a second primary cancer (5-10-year CIF = 7.2%, 95%CI: 6.7%-7.7%). The risk of late recurrence was reduced for patients operated in 2009-2013 compared to 2004-2008 (2.9% vs. 5.6%, sHR = 0.52, 95% CI: 0.42-0.65). The risk of metachronous CRC was likewise reduced from 4.1% to 2.1% (sHR = 0.50, 95%CI: 0.39-0.65). While the risk of second primary cancer did not change between 2009-2013 and 2004-2008 (7.1% vs. 7.1%, sHR = 0.98, 95% CI: 0.84-1.15). Using nation-wide 10-year follow-up data, we document that the incidences of late recurrence and metachronous CRC are low and decreasing from 2004 to 2013. Thus, despite increasing numbers of long-term cancer survivors, the data do not advocate for extending CRC-specific surveillance beyond 5 years.

Circulating tumour DNA and risk of recurrence in patients with asymptomatic versus symptomatic colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: Multiple initiatives aim to develop circulating tumour DNA (ctDNA) tests for early cancer detection in asymptomatic individuals. The few studies describing ctDNA-testing in both asymptomatic and symptomatic patients report lower ctDNA detection in the asymptomatic patients. Here, we explore if asymptomatic patients differ from symptomatic patients e.g. by including a 'low-ctDNA-shedding' and 'less-aggressive' subgroup. METHODS: ctDNA assessment was performed in two independent cohorts of consecutively recruited patients with asymptomatic colorectal cancer (CRC) (Cohort#1: n = 215, Cohort#2: n = 368) and symptomatic CRC (Cohort#1: n = 117, Cohort#2: n = 722). RESULTS: After adjusting for tumour stage and size, the odds of ctDNA detection was significantly lower in asymptomatic patients compared to symptomatic patients (Cohort#1: OR: 0.4, 95%CI: 0.2-0.8, Cohort#2: OR: 0.7, 95%CI: 0.5-0.9). Further, the recurrence risk was lower in asymptomatic patients (Cohort#1: sHR: 0.6, 95%CI: 0.3-1.2, Cohort#2: sHR: 0.6, 95%CI: 0.4-1.0). Notably, ctDNA-negative asymptomatic patients had the lowest recurrence risk compared to the symptomatic patients (Cohort#1: sHR: 0.2, 95%CI: 0.1-0.6, Cohort#2: sHR: 0.3, 95%CI: 0.2-0.6). CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggests that asymptomatic patients are enriched for a 'low-ctDNA-shedding-low-recurrence-risk' subgroup. Such insights are needed to guide ctDNA-based early-detection initiatives and should prompt discussions about de-escalation of therapy and follow-up for ctDNA-negative asymptomatic CRC patients.

Risk of recurrence in early-onset versus late-onset non-metastatic colorectal cancer, 2004-2019: a nationwide cohort study.

Background: The incidence of colorectal cancer (CRC) in individuals younger than 50 years of age (early-onset CRC) is increasing. Early-onset CRC often present at advanced stage, suggesting a more aggressive cancer course compared to late-onset CRC (age 50-79). This nationwide cohort study estimates the incidence of recurrence following early-onset CRC and late-onset CRC. Methods: The study included all Danish patients <80 years old operated for first-time Union for International Cancer Control (UICC) stage I-III CRC between January 2004 and December 2019. Recurrence status was determined by applying a validated algorithm to individual-level data from nationwide health registries. The 5-year cumulative incidence functions (CIF) of recurrence were reported for early-onset versus late-onset CRC. The difference in time to recurrence was estimated as a time ratio (TR) using an accelerated failure time model. Findings: Among 25,729 CRC patients, 1441 (5.6%) had early-onset CRC. Compared to late-onset CRC, early-onset was associated with advanced disease stages and higher treatment intensity. The 5-year CIF of recurrence was 29% (95% CI: 26%-31%) in early-onset versus 21% (95% CI: 21%-22%) in late-onset CRC. The higher CIF of recurrence for early-onset patients persisted in stage-stratified analysis. Time to recurrence was shorter in early-onset versus late-onset patients with TR = 0.76 (95% CI: 0.67-0.85). The 5-year CIF of recurrence decreased from 2004 to 2019 for both early- and late-onset patients-most prominent for early-onset patients. Interpretation: Early-onset CRC was associated with higher incidence of recurrence at all disease stages. Indicating that the increased risk is not explained by delayed diagnosis. The excess risk diminished from 2004 to 2019, suggesting that early-onset CRC may achieve a similar recurrence risk as late-onset CRC in a contemporary setting. Funding: Aarhus University, Novo Nordisk Foundation, Innovation Fund Denmark, and the Danish Cancer Society.

Incidence of Recurrence and Time to Recurrence in Stage I to III Colorectal Cancer: A Nationwide Danish Cohort Study.

Importance: Management of colorectal cancer (CRC) has been updated continuously over the past 2 decades. While the combination of these initiatives has had implications for improved survival, the implications for rates of recurrence remain unexplored. Objective: To ascertain the rates of recurrence and describe time to recurrence within 5 years of surgery with curative intent for stages I to III CRC. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used the Danish Colorectal Cancer Group Database to identify patients with Union for International Cancer Control (UICC) stages I to III CRC who underwent primary surgery between January 1, 2004, and December 31, 2019. They were followed up until recurrence (event), death (competing event), diagnosis of a second cancer (competing event), emigration (censoring event), 5 years postoperatively (censoring event), or January 1, 2023 (censoring event), whichever came first. Recurrence status was ascertained through individual-level linked data from the Danish Cancer Registry, Danish National Patient Registry, and Danish Pathology Registry using a validated algorithm. Data were analyzed from January 1 to August 8, 2023. Exposure: Primary surgery performed during 3 calendar periods (2004-2008, 2009-2013, and 2014-2019) stratified by tumor site (colon or rectum) and UICC stage (I, II, and III). Main Outcomes and Measures: Stage-specific 5-year recurrence reported as the cumulative incidence function (CIF) of recurrence, the association between calendar period of primary surgery and recurrence risk reported as subdistribution hazard ratios (sHRs), and the time from surgery to recurrence. Results: Of the 34 166 patients with UICC stages I to III CRC (median [IQR] age, 70 [62-77] years); 18 552 males [54.3%]) included in the study, 7027 developed recurrence within 5 years after the primary surgery. For colon cancer, the 5-year CIF of recurrence decreased over the 3 calendar periods from 16.3% to 6.8% for UICC stage I, from 21.9% to 11.6% for UICC stage II, and from 35.3% to 24.6% for UICC stage III colon cancer. For rectal cancer, the 5-year CIF decreased over the 3 periods from 19.9% to 9.5% for stage I, from 25.8% to 18.4% for stage II, and from 38.7% to 28.8% for stage III disease. Patients with stage III disease had a shorter time from surgery to recurrence compared with those with stage I disease (time ratio stage III vs stage I = 0.30; 95% CI, 0.28-0.32). Cancers detected through screening were associated with lower stage-adjusted risks of recurrence (sHR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.73-0.91) compared with cancers not detected through screening. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort of patients with CRC, the risk of recurrence decreased in patients with stages I to III disease during the study period. Cancer detection by screening was associated with an even lower risk of recurrence. Time to recurrence differed according to UICC stage. Because the risk of recurrence was so low in selected patient groups, future research is warranted to explore risk-stratified surveillance protocols in patients with CRC.

Detection of circulating tumor DNA by tumor-informed whole-genome sequencing enables prediction of recurrence in stage III colorectal cancer patients.

INTRODUCTION: Circulating tumor (ctDNA) can be used to detect residual disease after cancer treatment. Detecting low-level ctDNA is challenging, due to the limited number of recoverable ctDNA fragments at any target loci. In response, we applied tumor-informed whole-genome sequencing (WGS), leveraging thousands of mutations for ctDNA detection. METHODS: Performance was evaluated in serial plasma samples (n = 1283) from 144 stage III colorectal cancer patients. Tumor/normal WGS was used to establish a patient-specific mutational fingerprint, which was searched for in 20x WGS plasma profiles. For reproducibility, paired aliquots of 172 plasma samples were analyzed in two independent laboratories. De novo variant calling was performed for serial plasma samples with a ctDNA level > 10 % (n = 17) to explore genomic evolution. RESULTS: WGS-based ctDNA detection was prognostic of recurrence: post-operation (Hazard ratio [HR] 6.75, 95 %CI 3.18-14.3, p < 0.001), post-adjuvant chemotherapy (HR 28.9, 95 %CI 10.1-82.8; p < 0.001), and during surveillance (HR 22.8, 95 %CI 13.7-37.9, p < 0.0001). The 3-year cumulative incidence of ctDNA detection in recurrence patients was 95 %. ctDNA was detected a median of 8.7 months before radiological recurrence. The independently analyzed plasma aliquots showed excellent agreement (Cohens Kappa=0.9, r = 0.99). Genomic characterization of serial plasma revealed significant evolution in mutations and copy number alterations, and the timing of mutational processes, such as 5-fluorouracil-induced mutations. CONCLUSION: Our study supports the use of WGS for sensitive ctDNA detection and demonstrates that post-treatment ctDNA detection is highly prognostic of recurrence. Furthermore, plasma WGS can identify genomic differences distinguishing the primary tumor and relapsing metastasis, and monitor treatment-induced genomic changes.

Ultrasensitive plasma-based monitoring of tumor burden using machine-learning-guided signal enrichment.

In solid tumor oncology, circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) is poised to transform care through accurate assessment of minimal residual disease (MRD) and therapeutic response monitoring. To overcome the sparsity of ctDNA fragments in low tumor fraction (TF) settings and increase MRD sensitivity, we previously leveraged genome-wide mutational integration through plasma whole-genome sequencing (WGS). Here we now introduce MRD-EDGE, a machine-learning-guided WGS ctDNA single-nucleotide variant (SNV) and copy-number variant (CNV) detection platform designed to increase signal enrichment. MRD-EDGESNV uses deep learning and a ctDNA-specific feature space to increase SNV signal-to-noise enrichment in WGS by ~300× compared to previous WGS error suppression. MRD-EDGECNV also reduces the degree of aneuploidy needed for ultrasensitive CNV detection through WGS from 1 Gb to 200 Mb, vastly expanding its applicability within solid tumors. We harness the improved performance to identify MRD following surgery in multiple cancer types, track changes in TF in response to neoadjuvant immunotherapy in lung cancer and demonstrate ctDNA shedding in precancerous colorectal adenomas. Finally, the radical signal-to-noise enrichment in MRD-EDGESNV enables plasma-only (non-tumor-informed) disease monitoring in advanced melanoma and lung cancer, yielding clinically informative TF monitoring for patients on immune-checkpoint inhibition.

Identifying Recurrences Among Non-Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Patients Using National Health Data Registries: Validation and Optimization of a Registry-Based Algorithm in a Modern Danish Cohort.

Purpose: Colorectal cancer (CRC) recurrence is not routinely recorded in Danish health data registries. Here, we aimed to revalidate a registry-based algorithm to identify recurrences in a contemporary cohort and to investigate the accuracy of estimating the time to recurrence (TTR). Patients and Methods: We ascertained data on 1129 patients operated for UICC TNM stage I-III CRC during 2012-2017 registered in the CRC biobank at the Department of Molecular Medicine, Aarhus University Hospital, Denmark. Individual-level data were linked with data from the Danish Colorectal Cancer Group database, Danish Cancer Registry, Danish National Registry of Patients, and Danish Pathology Registry. The algorithm identified recurrence based on diagnosis codes of local recurrence or metastases, the receipt of chemotherapy, or a pathological tissue assessment code of recurrence more than 180 days after CRC surgery. A subgroup was selected for validation of the algorithm using medical record reviews as a reference standard. Results: We found a 3-year cumulative recurrence rate of 20% (95% CI: 17-22%). Manual medical record review identified 80 recurrences in the validation cohort of 522 patients. The algorithm detected recurrence with 94% sensitivity (75/80; 95% CI: 86-98%) and 98% specificity (431/442; 95% CI: 96-99%). The positive and negative predictive values of the algorithm were 87% (95% CI: 78-93%) and 99% (95% CI: 97-100%), respectively. The median difference in TTR (TTRMedical_chart-TTRalgorithm) was -8 days (IQR: -21 to +3 days). Restricting the algorithm to chemotherapy codes from oncology departments increased the positive predictive value from 87% to 94% without changing the negative predictive value (99%). Conclusion: The algorithm detected recurrence and TTR with high precision in this contemporary cohort. Restriction to chemotherapy codes from oncology departments using department classifications improves the algorithm. The algorithm is suitable for use in future observational studies.

DREAMS: deep read-level error model for sequencing data applied to low-frequency variant calling and circulating tumor DNA detection.

Circulating tumor DNA detection using next-generation sequencing (NGS) data of plasma DNA is promising for cancer identification and characterization. However, the tumor signal in the blood is often low and difficult to distinguish from errors. We present DREAMS (Deep Read-level Modelling of Sequencing-errors) for estimating error rates of individual read positions. Using DREAMS, we develop statistical methods for variant calling (DREAMS-vc) and cancer detection (DREAMS-cc). For evaluation, we generate deep targeted NGS data of matching tumor and plasma DNA from 85 colorectal cancer patients. The DREAMS approach performs better than state-of-the-art methods for variant calling and cancer detection.

Impact of Whole Genome Doubling on Detection of Circulating Tumor DNA in Colorectal Cancer.

OBJECTIVE: Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) is a candidate biomarker of cancer with practice-changing potential in the detection of both early and residual disease. Disease stage and tumor size affect the probability of ctDNA detection, whereas little is known about the influence of other tumor characteristics on ctDNA detection. This study investigates the impact of tumor cell whole-genome doubling (WGD) on the detection of ctDNA in plasma collected preoperatively from newly diagnosed colorectal cancer (CRC) patients. METHODS: WGD was estimated from copy numbers derived from whole-exome sequencing (WES) data of matched tumor and normal DNA from 833 Danish CRC patients. To explore if tumor WGD status impacts ctDNA detection, we applied tumor-informed ctDNA analysis to preoperative plasma samples from all patients. RESULTS: Patients with WGD+ tumors had 53% increased odds of being ctDNA positive (OR = 1.53, 95%CI: 1.12-2.09). After stratification for UICC stage, the association persisted for Stage I (OR = 2.44, 95%CI: 1.22-5.03) and Stage II (OR = 1.76, 95%CI: 1.11-2.81) but not for Stage III (OR = 0.83, 95%CI: 0.44-1.53) patients. CONCLUSION: The presence of WGD significantly increases the probability of detecting ctDNA, particularly for early-stage disease. In patients with more advanced disease, the benefit of WGD on ctDNA detection is less pronounced, consistent with increased DNA shedding from these tumors, making ctDNA detection less dependent on the amount of ctDNA released per tumor cell.

Peritoneal metastases found in routinely resected specimens after cytoreductive surgery and heated intraperitoneal chemotherapy.

INTRODUCTION: Peritoneal metastases (PM) originating from colorectal cancer (CRC) and pseudomyxoma peritonei (PMP) can be treated with cytoreductive surgery (CRS) and hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy (HIPEC). Certain sites in the peritoneal cavity are prone to contain PM and are, therefore, routinely resected. The aim of this study is to investigate the frequency of disease in CRS specimens routinely resected. Secondly, to investigate if the risk of finding PM in routinely resected specimen is associated with involvement of anatomic related peritoneal areas. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This study investigated 433 patients diagnosed with PMP (n = 119) or PM from CRC (n = 314) and operated with CRS + HIPEC between June 2006 and November 2020 at a national center. Baseline data were prospectively registered. Pathology reports were reviewed for the presence of metastases in the routinely resected umbilicus, ligamentum teres hepatis, ovaries and greater omentum. Tumor extent was estimated using the Dutch region count. RESULTS: PM was found in 14.7% of umbilical resections, in 17.4% of the resected ligamentum teres hepatis, in 48.2% of the resected ovaries and in 49.5% of the greater omentum specimens. We found an association between macroscopic disease involvement of the nearest region and risk of PM found in the related resections. Seven of 31 women with no macroscopically visible disease in the pelvis had PM diagnosed in the resected ovaries. CONCLUSIONS: A substantial proportion of routine resections held histologic verified PM. Our results may advocate for a routinely performed resection of the umbilicus, ligamentum teres hepatis, ovaries and greater omentum.

Postoperative paralytic ileus after cytoreductive surgery combined with heated intraperitoneal chemotherapy.

BACKGROUND: Patients with peritoneal malignancy treated by cytoreductive surgery (CRS) combined with hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy (HIPEC) are prone to develop postoperative paralytic ileus (POI). POI is associated with significant increase in both morbidity and mortality. CRS and HIPEC commonly result in prolonged POI (PPOI). The objective was to clarify the extent of PPOI in patients treated by CRS and HIPEC for peritoneal malignancy. METHODS: This was a prospective multicenter study including patients operated with CRS and HIPEC at the Department of Surgery, Aarhus University Hospital, Denmark and the Peritoneal Malignancy Institute, Basingstoke, United Kingdom. A total of 85 patients were included over 5 months. Patients prospectively reported parameters of postoperative gastrointestinal function in a diary from post-operative day 1 (POD1) until discharge. PPOI was defined as first defecation on POD6 or later. RESULTS: Median time to first flatus passage was 4 days (range 1-12). Median time to first defecation was 6 days (1-14). Median time to removal of nasojejunal tube was 4 days (3-13) and 7 days (1-43) for nasogastric tube. Forty-six patients (54%) developed PPOI. Patients with PPOI had longer time to first flatus (p<0.0001) and longer time to removal of nasojejunal tube (p=0.001). Duration of surgery correlated to time to first flatus (p=0.015) and time to removal of nasogastric or nasojejunal tube (p<0.0001) but not to time to first defecation (p=0.321). CONCLUSIONS: Postoperative gastrointestinal paralysis remains a common and serious problem in patients treated with CRS and HIPEC.

Leakage Rate After Laparoscopic Ileocolic Intracorporeal Anastomosis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The prevailing technique in laparoscopic resection of the right colon has been laparoscopic-assisted procedure with externalization of the bowel for extracorporeal creation of the ileocolic anastomosis. The total laparoscopic technique performing all steps intracorporeally, however, has gained increasing interest. The purpose of this study was to describe our experience with creation of an ileocolic intracorporeal anastomosis (IIA) and to determine anastomotic leakage (AL) rate and short-term outcome of performing IIA. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In the period 2011-2017, 2 surgeons in two centers performed 96 laparoscopic resections of malignant and premalignant diseases in the right colon. A linear stapler was used to construct an isoperistaltic side-to-side anastomosis, closing the residual defect with a running suture. Data regarding the surgical procedure and the postoperative course were recorded prospectively. Complications were defined as postoperative until the 30th postoperative day. Readmission was defined as any readmission related to the surgical procedure within 90 days postoperative. RESULTS: AL rate was observed in 4 patients (4.2%, 95% CI = 1.15-10.33). Postoperative complications occurred in a total of 20 patients (20.83%, 95% CI = 13.22-30.33), none of them fatal. Patients with AL had increased risk of other postoperative complications with OR = 14.25 (95% CI = 1.03-757.36, P = .0236) and complications of Clavien-Dindo Grade ≥IIIb (OR = 10.8, P = .012). Smoking was the only factor predisposing to AL. Patients without AL stayed in hospital a median of 3 days, compared with 32 days for patients with AL. CONCLUSION: IIA was found to be a feasible and safe technique in laparoscopic resections of the right colon with an AL rate of 4.2%.

Perioperative lipid-enriched enteral nutrition versus standard care in patients undergoing elective colorectal surgery (SANICS II): a multicentre, double-blind, randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Postoperative ileus and anastomotic leakage severely impair recovery after colorectal resection. We investigated the effect of perioperative lipid-enriched enteral nutrition versus standard care on the risk of postoperative ileus, anastomotic leakage, and other clinical outcomes. METHODS: We did an international, multicentre, double-blind, randomised, controlled trial of patients (≥18 years) undergoing elective colorectal surgery with primary anastomosis at six clinical centres in the Netherlands and Denmark. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1), stratified by location (colonic and rectal) and type of surgery (laparoscopic and open), via online randomisation software, with block sizes of six, to receive either continuous lipid-enriched enteral tube feeding from 3 h before until 6 h after surgery (intervention) or no perioperative nutrition (control). Surgeons, patients, and researchers were masked to treatment allocation for the entire study period. The primary outcome was postoperative ileus. Secondary outcomes included anastomotic leakage, pneumonia, preoperative gastric volumes, time to functional recovery, length of hospital stay, the need for additional interventions, intensive care unit admission, postoperative inflammatory response, and surgical complications. Analyses were by intention to treat. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02175979, and trialregister.nl, number NTR4670. FINDINGS: Between July 28, 2014, and February 20, 2017, 280 patients were randomly assigned, 15 of whom were excluded after random allocation because they fulfilled one or more exclusion criteria. 265 patients received perioperative nutrition (n=132) or standard care (n=133) and were included in the analyses. A postoperative ileus occurred in 37 (28%) patients in the intervention group versus 29 (22%) in the control group (risk ratio [RR] 1·09, 95% CI 0·95-1·25; p=0·24). Anastomotic leakage occurred in 12 (9%) patients in the intervention group versus 11 (8%) in the control group (RR 1·01, 95% CI 0·94-1·09; p=0·81). Pneumonia occurred in ten (8%) patients in the intervention group versus three (2%) in the control group (RR 1·06, 95% CI 1·00-1·12; p=0·051). All other secondary outcomes were similar between groups (all p>0·05). INTERPRETATION: Perioperative lipid-enriched enteral nutrition in patients undergoing elective colorectal surgery has no advantage over standard care in terms of postoperative complications. FUNDING: Netherlands Organisation for Health Research and Development (ZonMW), Fonds NutsOhra, and Danone Research.