Applying Climate Compatible Development and economic valuation to coastal management: A case study of Kenya's mangrove forests.

Mangrove forests are under global pressure. Habitat destruction and degradation persist despite longstanding recognition of the important ecological functions of mangroves. Hence new approaches are needed to help stakeholders and policy-makers achieve sound management that is informed by the best science. Here we explore how the new policy concept of Climate Compatible Development (CCD) can be applied to achieve better outcomes. We use economic valuation approaches to combine socio-economic data, projections of forest cover based on quantitative risk mapping and storyline scenario building exercises to articulate the economic consequences of plausible alternative future scenarios for the mangrove forests of the South Kenya coast, as a case study of relevance to many other areas. Using data from 645 household surveys, 10 focus groups and 74 interviews conducted across four mangrove sites, and combining these with information on fish catches taken at three landing sites, a mangrove carbon trading project and published data allowed us to make a thorough (although still partial) economic valuation of the forests. This gave a current value of the South Coast mangroves of USD 6.5 million, or USD 1166 ha(-1), with 59% of this value on average derived from regulating services. Quantitative risk mapping, projecting recent trends over the next twenty years, suggests a 43% loss of forest cover over that time with 100% loss at the most vulnerable sites. Much of the forest lost between 1992 and 2012 has not been replaced by high value alternative land uses hence restoration of these areas is feasible and may not involve large opportunity costs. We invited thirty eight stakeholders to develop plausible storyline scenarios reflecting Business as Usual (BAU) and CCD - which emphasises sustainable forest conservation and management - in twenty years time, drawing on local and regional expert knowledge of relevant policy, social trends and cultures. Combining these scenarios with the quantitative projections and economic baseline allowed the modelling of likely value added and costs avoided under the CCD scenario. This suggests a net present value of more than US$20 million of adoption of CCD rather than BAU. This work adds to the economic evidence for mangrove conservation and helps to underline the importance of new real and emerging markets, such as for REDD + projects, in making this case for carbon-rich coastal habitats. It demonstrates a policy tool - CCD - that can be used to engage stakeholders and help to co-ordinate policy across different sectors towards mangrove conservation.

Finding space for participation: fisherfolk mobility and co-management of Lake Victoria fisheries.

The literature on fisheries co-management is almost silent on the issue of the movement of fisherfolk within fisheries, although such movement must have implications for the effectiveness of co-management. The introduction of co-management often involves the formation of new structures that should enable the participation of key stakeholder groups in decision-making and management, but such participation is challenging for migrating fishers. The article reports on a study on Lake Victoria, East Africa, which investigated the extent of movement around the lake and the implications of movement for how fishers participate and are represented in co-management, and the implications of the extent and nature of movement for co-management structures and processes. The analysis draws on the concept of space from the literature on participation in development and on a framework of representation in fisheries co-management in addressing these questions. The created space is on an 'invited' rather than open basis, reflecting the top-down nature of implementation and the desire to secure participation of different occupational groups, as well as women in a male-dominated sector. The more powerful boat owners dominate positions of power within the co-management system, particularly as the levels of co-management, from sub-district to national, are traversed. The limited power and resources of boat crew are exacerbated by the degree and nature of movement around the lake, making effective participation in co-management decision-making a challenge.