How Blackouts during Heat Waves Amplify Mortality and Morbidity Risk.

The recent concurrence of electrical grid failure events in time with extreme temperatures is compounding the population health risks of extreme weather episodes. Here, we combine simulated heat exposure data during historical heat wave events in three large U.S. cities to assess the degree to which heat-related mortality and morbidity change in response to a concurrent electrical grid failure event. We develop a novel approach to estimating individually experienced temperature to approximate how personal-level heat exposure changes on an hourly basis, accounting for both outdoor and building-interior exposures. We find the concurrence of a multiday blackout event with heat wave conditions to more than double the estimated rate of heat-related mortality across all three cities, and to require medical attention for between 3% (Atlanta) and more than 50% (Phoenix) of the total urban population in present and future time periods. Our results highlight the need for enhanced electrical grid resilience and support a more spatially expansive use of tree canopy and high albedo roofing materials to lessen heat exposures during compound climate and infrastructure failure events.

The pregnancy research on inflammation, nutrition, & city environment: systematic analyses study (PRINCESA) cohort, 2009-2015.

The Pregnancy Research on Inflammation, Nutrition, & City Environment: Systematic Analyses Study (PRINCESA) cohort was set up to evaluate associations between air pollution and birth outcomes among pregnant persons in Mexico City. Specifically, the study was designed to improve air pollution exposure assessment and elucidate biological mechanisms underlying associations between maternal exposures and adverse pregnancy outcomes. Pregnant persons (all women) (N = 935) between ages 18-45 who lived and/or worked in metropolitan Mexico City, Mexico, from 2009 to 2015 and liveborn singleton infants (N = 815) of participants who completed follow-up were enrolled in the cohort. We followed participants monthly from enrollment to delivery and the following categories of data were obtained: demographic, medical and obstetric history, geo-referenced data, repeated measures on daily activity patterns, reported food intake, anthropometric, clinical and obstetric data, 20 serum and 20 cervicovaginal cytokines, and lower reproductive tract infection. Repeated ultrasound measures of fetal parameters and infant birth data are also included in the study's database. In addition, PRINCESA investigators calculated air pollution exposure measures for six pollutants measured by the Mexico City Atmospheric Monitoring System (SIMAT). These estimates utilize participants' addresses to account for spatial variation in exposure (nearest monitor, inverse distance weighting, and kriging) and are available daily during pregnancy for participants. To date, associations between environmental and nutritional impacts on maternal and child health outcomes have been evaluated. PRINCESA has a comprehensive database of maternal and infant data and biological samples and offers collaboration opportunities to study associations between environmental and other factors, including nutrition and pregnancy outcomes.

Indoor apparent temperature, cognition, and daytime sleepiness among low-income adults in a temperate climate.

The burden of temperature-associated mortality and hospital visits is significant, but temperature's effects on non-emergency health outcomes is less clear. This burden is potentially greater in low-income households unable to afford efficient heating and cooling. We examined short-term associations between indoor temperatures and cognitive function and daytime sleepiness in low-income residents of Detroit, Michigan. Apparent temperature (AT, based on temperature and humidity) was recorded hourly in 34 participant homes between July 2019-March 2020. Between July-October 2019, 18 participants were administered word list immediate (WLL) and delayed (WLD) recall tests (10-point scales) and the Epworth Sleepiness Scale (24-point scale) 2-4 times. We applied longitudinal models with nonlinear distributed lags of temperature up to 7 days prior to testing. Indoor temperatures ranged 8-34°C overall and 15-34°C on survey days. We observed a 0.4 (95% CI: 0.0, 0.7) point increase in WLL and 0.4 (95% CI: 0.0, 0.9) point increase in WLD scores per 2°C increase in AT. Results suggested decreasing sleepiness scores with decreasing nighttime AT below 22°C. Low-income Detroit residents experience uncomfortably high and low indoor temperatures. Indoor temperature may influence cognitive function and sleepiness, although we did not observe deleterious effects of higher temperatures.

Compound Climate and Infrastructure Events: How Electrical Grid Failure Alters Heat Wave Risk.

The potential for critical infrastructure failures during extreme weather events is rising. Major electrical grid failure or "blackout" events in the United States, those with a duration of at least 1 h and impacting 50,000 or more utility customers, increased by more than 60% over the most recent 5 year reporting period. When such blackout events coincide in time with heat wave conditions, population exposures to extreme heat both outside and within buildings can reach dangerously high levels as mechanical air conditioning systems become inoperable. Here, we combine the Weather Research and Forecasting regional climate model with an advanced building energy model to simulate building-interior temperatures in response to concurrent heat wave and blackout conditions for more than 2.8 million residents across Atlanta, Georgia; Detroit, Michigan; and Phoenix, Arizona. Study results find simulated compound heat wave and grid failure events of recent intensity and duration to expose between 68 and 100% of the urban population to an elevated risk of heat exhaustion and/or heat stroke.

Reproductive outcomes associated with flame retardants among couples seeking fertility treatment: A paternal perspective.

BACKGROUND: Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) have been phased out of production for nearly a decade yet are still frequently detected in serum of U.S. adults. PBDE concentrations have been associated with adverse reproductive outcomes and laboratory studies suggest hydroxylated-BDEs (OH-BDEs) may act as endocrine disruptors. We set out to assess the joint effects of paternal and maternal serum PBDE concentrations on in vitro fertilization (IVF) outcomes and the association between paternal serum OH-BDE concentrations and IVF outcomes. METHODS: This analysis included 189 couples (contributing 285 IVF cycles) recruited between 2006 and 2016 from a longitudinal cohort based at Massachusetts General Hospital Fertility Center who completed at least one IVF cycle and had an available blood sample at study entry. Congeners (47, 99, 100, 153, and 154) and OH-BDEs (3-OH-BDE47, 5-OH-BDE47, 6-OH-BDE47 and 4-OH-BDE49) were quantified in serum. Log-transformed PBDEs and OH-BDEs were modeled in quartiles for associations with IVF outcomes using multivariable generalized mixed models and cluster weighted generalized estimating equations. RESULTS: Lipid-adjusted concentrations of PBDEs and OH-BDEs were higher in females than in male partners. There were no clear patterns of increases in risk of adverse IVF outcomes associated with PBDEs and OH-BDEs. However, some decreases in associations with IVF outcomes were observed in isolated quartiles. CONCLUSIONS: Our assessment of couple level exposure is unique and highlights the importance of including male and female exposures in the assessment of the influence of environmental toxicants on pregnancy outcomes.

Opportunities and challenges in reducing personal inhalation exposure to air pollution among electronic waste recovery workers in Ghana.

BACKGROUND: Informal sector electronic waste (e-waste) recovery produces toxic emissions resulting from burning e-waste to recover valuable metals. OBJECTIVES: To identify high-risk worker groups by measuring relative levels of personal inhalation exposure to particulate matter (PM) of fine (≤2.5 µm) and coarse (2.5-10 µm) fractions (PM2.5 and PM2.5-10, respectively) across work activities among e-waste workers, and to assess how wind conditions modify levels of PM by activity and site location. METHODS: At the Agbogbloshie e-waste site, 170 partial-shift PM samples and time-activity data were collected from participants (N = 105) enrolled in the GeoHealth cohort study. Personal sampling included continuous measures of size-specific PM from the worker's breathing zone and time-activity derived from wearable cameras. Linear mixed models were used to estimate changes in personal PM2.5 and PM2.5-10 associated with activities and evaluate effect modification by wind conditions. RESULTS: Mean (±standard deviation) personal PM2.5 and PM2.5-10 concentrations were 80 (± 81) and 123 (± 139) µg m-3 , respectively. The adjusted mean PM2.5 concentration for burning e-waste was 88 µg m-3 , a 28% increase above concentrations during non-recovery activities (such as eating). Transportation-related and burning activities were associated with the highest PM2.5-10 concentrations. Frequent changes in wind direction were associated with higher PM2.5 concentrations when burning, and high wind speeds with higher PM2.5-10 concentrations when dismantling e-waste downwind of the burning zone.

Particulate matter exposure, dietary inflammatory index and preterm birth in Mexico city, Mexico.

BACKGROUND: Particulate matter ≤10 µm in aerodynamic diameter (PM10) and diet quality are risk factors for systemic inflammation, which is associated with preterm birth (PTB). PM10 and a pro-inflammatory diet (assessed by the Dietary Inflammatory Index [DII®]) have been individually evaluated as causes of PTB and differences by offspring sex have been reported for the DII. However, additional studies are needed to evaluate joint effects of these associations to inform intervention efforts. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the independent and joint effects of PM10 and energy-adjusted DII (E-DII) on PTB risks. METHODS: PM10 estimates were generated from daily citywide averages for 1216 pregnant women from three subcohorts of the Early Life Exposures in Mexico to Environmental Toxicants study using data from the Mexico City Outdoor Air Monitoring Network. Among a subset of participants (N = 620), E-DII scores were calculated using a validated food frequency questionnaire. Cox Proportional Hazards models were run for select periods during pregnancy and entire pregnancy averages for E-DII and PM10. We assessed for potential non-linear associations using natural splines. RESULTS: In adjusted models, PM10 exposure was associated with increased risks of PTB for a range of values (58-72 µg/m3) during the second trimester, while negative associations were seen during the second (≥74 µg/m3) and third trimesters (55-65 µg/m3). Analyses conducted using distributed lag models for periods closer to delivery (max lag = 90) did not show negative associations between PM10 exposure and preterm birth, and indeed positive significant associations were observed (estimates and figures). E-DII was not associated with PTB and there was no evidence of effect modification by infant sex. There was no evidence of interaction between PM10 and E-DII and the risk of preterm birth. DISCUSSION: Associations between PM10 and PTB in Mexico City varied over time and across levels of PM10. Our findings of negative associations in the second and third trimesters, which are contrary to the hypothesized relationship between PM10 and PTB, may be due to a number of factors, including live birth bias and the exposure period evaluated. Differences in results for the periods evaluated suggest that PM10 from shorter exposure windows may play a more proximal role in initiating preterm labor.

Repeated Measures of Cervicovaginal Cytokines during Healthy Pregnancy: Understanding "Normal" Inflammation to Inform Future Screening.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to describe characteristics of cervicovaginal cytokines obtained during pregnancy from women who subsequently delivered at term. STUDY DESIGN: We used repeated measures of 20 cervicovaginal cytokines, collected on average on a monthly basis, from the second to the ninth month of gestation among 181 term pregnancies in the Mexico City Pregnancy Research on Inflammation, Nutrition, & City Environment: Systematic Analyses cohort (2009-2014). Cytokines were quantified using multiplex assay. RESULTS: Cytokine distributions differed more between than within cytokines. Across trimesters, cytokines interleukin (IL)-1Ra, IL-1α, and IL-8 consistently had high concentrations compared with other measured cytokines. Cytokine intraclass correlation coefficients ranged from 0.41 to 0.82. Spearman's correlation coefficients among cytokine pairs varied but correlation directions were stable; 95.3% of the 190 correlation pairs remained either negative or positive across trimesters. Mean longitudinal patterns of log-transformed cytokines from Tobit regression varied across but less within cytokines. CONCLUSION: Although mean concentrations of cervicovaginal cytokines among term pregnancies were high, they were largely stable over time. The high cytokine concentrations corroborate that pregnancy is associated with an active inflammatory state. These characterizations may serve as a baseline for comparison to other obstetric outcomes, which may be helpful in understanding deviations from normal gestational inflammation.

Dietary patterns and diet quality during pregnancy and low birthweight: The PRINCESA cohort.

Although the isolated effects of several specific nutrients have been examined, little is known about the relationship between overall maternal diet during pregnancy and fetal development and growth. This study evaluates the association between maternal diet and low birthweight (LBW) in 660 pregnant women from the Pregnancy Research on Inflammation, Nutrition,& City Environment: Systematic Analyses (PRINCESA) cohort in Mexico City. Using prior day dietary intake reported at multiple prenatal visits, diet was assessed prospectively using a priori (Maternal Diet Quality Score [MDQS]) and a posteriori (dietary patterns extracted by factor analysis) approaches. The association between maternal diet and LBW was investigated by logistic regression, controlling for confounders. Adherence to recommended guidelines (higher MDQS) was associated with a reduced risk of LBW (OR, 0.22; 95% confidence interval [0.06, 0.75], P < .05, N = 49) compared with the lowest adherence category (reference group), controlling for maternal age, education, height, marital status, pre-pregnancy body mass index, parity, energy intake, gestational weight gain, and preterm versus term birth; a posteriori dietary patterns were not associated with LBW risk. Higher adherence to MDQS was associated with a lower risk of having an LBW baby in this sample. Our results support the role of advocating a healthy overall diet, versus individual foods or nutrients, in preventing LBW.

Assessing the magnitude and uncertainties of the burden of selected diseases attributable to extreme heat and extreme precipitation under a climate change scenario in Michigan for the period 2041-2070.

BACKGROUND: Extreme heat (EH) and extreme precipitation (EP) events are expected to increase with climate change in many parts of the world. Characterizing the potential future morbidity and mortality burden of EH and EP and associated costs, as well as uncertainties in the estimates, can identify areas for public health intervention and inform adaptation strategies. We demonstrate a burden of disease and uncertainty assessment using data from Michigan, USA, and provide approaches for deriving these estimates for locations lacking certain data inputs. METHODS: Case-crossover analysis adapted from previous Michigan-specific modeling was used to characterize the historical EH-mortality relationship by county poverty rate and age group. Historical EH-associated hospitalization and emergency room visit risks from the literature were adapted to Michigan. In the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's BenMAP software, we used a novel approach, with multiple spatially-varying exposures, to estimate all non-accidental mortality and morbidity occurring on EH days (EH days; days where maximum temperature 32.2-35 C or > 35 C) and EP days. We did so for two time periods: the "historical" period (1971-2000), and the "projected" period (2041-2070), by county. RESULTS: The rate of all non-accidental mortality associated with EH days increased from 0.46/100,000 persons historically to 2.9/100,000 in the projected period, for 240 EH-attributable deaths annually. EH-associated ED visits increased from 12/100,000 persons to 68/100,000 persons, for 7800 EH-attributable emergency department visits. EP-associated ED visits increased minimally from 1.7 to 1.9/100,000 persons. Mortality and morbidity were highest among those aged 65+ (91% of all deaths). Projected health costs are dominated by EH-associated mortality ($280 million) and EH-associated emergency department visits ($14 million). A variety of sources contribute to a moderate-to-high degree of uncertainty around the point estimates, including uncertainty in the magnitude of climate change, population composition, baseline health rates, and exposure-response estimates. CONCLUSIONS: The approach applied here showed that health burden due to climate may significantly rise for all Michigan counties by midcentury. The costs to health care and uncertainties in the estimates, given the potential for substantial attributable burden, provide additional information to guide adaptation measures for EH and EP.

Vulnerability to the Cardiovascular Effects of Ambient Heat in Six US Cities: Results from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA).

BACKGROUND: With climate change, temperatures are increasing. Heat-associated health events disproportionately affect certain subpopulations. However, prior research has often lacked information on individual-level health and air conditioning and neighborhood stressors/protections. OBJECTIVES: To assess whether (1) heat (2-day mean temperature above local 75th percentiles) is associated with increased heart rate and decreased blood pressure, controlling for age, time, season, daily ozone, and daily particulate matter (PM2.5) and (2) associations differ by antihypertensive medication use, renal function, fasting glucose, emotional support, air conditioning ownership and use, normalized difference vegetation index, neighborhood safety, and residence- specific oxides of nitrogen and PM2.5. METHODS: Health and behavioral characteristics were obtained repeatedly on participants of the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis in six US sites (2000-2010). These were linked with airport temperature, air quality, and satellite- and survey-derived neighborhood characteristics. We used a fixed-effects design, regressing health outcomes on linear temperature splines with knots at the 75th percentiles, interaction terms for each characteristic, and adjustment for month of year, age, PM2.5, and ozone. RESULTS: Overall, heat was not associated with heart rate. However, for a 2°C increase in heat, systolic blood pressure decreased by 1.1 mmHg (95% CI = -1.6, -0.6) and diastolic blood pressure by 0.3 mmHg (95% CI = -0.6, -0.1). Among nonusers of antihypertensive medications, heat-associated decreases in SBP were 2.1 mmHg greater among individuals with central air conditioning versus those without. Confidence intervals around the remaining modifiers were wide after multiple-comparisons corrections or sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Outdoor heat is associated with decreasing blood pressure, and cardiovascular vulnerability may vary primarily by ownership of central air conditioning.

Short-and medium-term associations of particle number concentration with cardiovascular markers in a Puerto Rican cohort.

Air pollution has been linked to adverse cardiovascular outcomes; however, susceptibility may vary by population. Puerto Rican adults living in the US may be a susceptible group due to a high rate of adverse cardiovascular events. We evaluated the effect of changes in ambient particle number concentration (PNC, a measure of ultrafine particles) and effects on biomarkers of cardiovascular risk in the Boston Puerto Rican Health Study (BPRHS), a longitudinal cohort (n = 1499). Ambient PNC was measured at a fixed site between 2004 and 2013 and daily mean concentrations were used to construct PNC metrics, including lags of 0, 1 and 2 days and moving averages (MAs) of 3, 7 and 28 days. We examined the association of each metric with C-reactive protein (CRP) and blood pressure. Each model included subject-specific random intercepts to account for multiple measurements. An interquartile range (IQR) increase in PNC was associated with CRP for all metrics, notably a 3-day increase in PNC was associated with a 7.1% (95% CI: 2.0%, 12.2%) increase in CRP. Significant associations with CRP were seen in women, but not men; with current and former (but not non-) smokers; participants younger (but not older) than 65 y; those without diabetes (but not with), and those with (but not without), hypertension. Our study extends knowledge about the health effects of air pollution to a vulnerable population that has been understudied.

Trends in Environmental Tobacco Smoke (ETS) Exposure and Preterm Birth: Use of Smoking Bans and Direct ETS Exposure Assessments in Study Designs.

For decades, many studies have linked maternal smoking to an increased risk of preterm birth. As a result, the scientific community has long hypothesized that exposure to environmental tobacco smoke (ETS), commonly referred to as second-hand smoke, is also associated with an increased risk of preterm birth. Multiple studies have examined this proposed association through different strategies and approaches. Recently, a small number of epidemiology studies have examined preterm birth trends before and after the implementation of antismoking legislation in various jurisdictions. We found that these studies have largely revealed a significant trend of decreasing population-level preterm birth rates after the implementation of smoking bans. However, most of the studies reviewed did not distinguish the impact of maternal smoking from ETS in their analyses, making it difficult to specifically evaluate the effects of smoking bans on ETS exposure. Other studies have taken the approach of directly measuring maternal ETS exposure and associations with preterm birth within particular study populations. In contrast to smoking ban studies, the latter group of studies had more inconclusive results. The use of a variety of exposure assessment methods ranging from different self-reporting techniques to biomarker measurements posed a challenge to compare studies. We evaluate current scientific literature for evidence of an association between maternal ETS exposure and risk of preterm birth. We also discuss the strengths and weaknesses of the different approaches to study this association as well as methods used for ETS exposure assessment. We propose that more studies, specifically, evaluating rates of preterm birth among nonsmoking women before and after smoking bans, are needed as well as using better ETS exposure assessments methods in studies measuring maternal ETS exposure.

Air pollution, cardiovascular endpoints and susceptibility by stress and material resources: a systematic review of the evidence.

BACKGROUND AND METHODS: Evidence shows that both the physical and social environments play a role in the development of cardiovascular disease. The purpose of this systematic review is two-fold: First, we summarize research from the past 12 years from the growing number of studies focused on effect modification of the relationships between air pollution and cardiovascular disease (CVD) outcomes by socioeconomic position (SEP) and; second, we identify research gaps throughout the published literature on this topic and opportunities for addressing these gaps in future study designs. RESULTS: We identified 30 articles that examined the modifying effects of either material resources or psychosocial stress (both related to SEP) on associations between short and long-term air pollution exposure and CVD endpoints. Although 18 articles identified at least one interaction between an air pollutant and material resource indicator, 11 others did not. Support for susceptibility to air pollution by psychosocial stress was weaker; however, only three articles tested this hypothesis. Further studies are warranted to investigate how air pollution and SEP together may influence CVD. CONCLUSIONS: We recommend that such research include thorough assessment of air pollution and SEP correlations, including spatial correlation; investigate air pollution indices or multi-pollutant models; use standardized metrics of SEP to enhance comparability across studies; and evaluate potentially susceptible populations.

Vulnerability to extreme-heat-associated hospitalization in three counties in Michigan, USA, 2000-2009.

With climate change, extreme heat (EH) events are increasing, so it is important to understand who is vulnerable to heat-associated morbidity. We determined the association between EH and hospitalizations for all natural causes; cardiovascular, respiratory, and renal diseases; diabetes mellitus; and acute myocardial infarction in Michigan, USA, at different intensities and durations. We assessed confounding by ozone and how individual characteristics and health insurance payer (a proxy for income) modified these associations. We obtained Michigan Inpatient Database, National Climatic Data Center, and US Environmental Protection Agency ozone data for May-September, 2000-2009 for three Michigan counties. We employed a case-crossover design and modeled EH as an indicator for temperature above the 95th, 97th, or 99th percentile thresholds for 1, 2, 3, or 4 days. We examined effect modification by patient age, race, sex, and health insurance payer and pooled the county results. Among non-whites, the pooled odds ratio for hospitalization on EH (97th percentile threshold) vs. non-EH days for renal diseases was 1.37 (95 % CI = 1.13-1.66), which increased with increasing EH intensity, but was null among whites (OR = 1.00, 95 % CI = 0.81, 1.25). We observed a null association between EH and cardiovascular hospitalization. EH (99th percentile threshold) was associated with myocardial infarction hospitalizations. Confounding by ozone was minimal. EH was associated with hospitalizations for renal disease among non-whites. This information on vulnerability to heat-associated morbidity helps characterize the public health burden of EH and target interventions including patient education.

Using a latent variable model with non-constant factor loadings to examine PM2.5 constituents related to secondary inorganic aerosols.

Factor analysis is a commonly used method of modelling correlated multivariate exposure data. Typically, the measurement model is assumed to have constant factor loadings. However, from our preliminary analyses of the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) PM2.5 fine speciation data, we have observed that the factor loadings for four constituents change considerably in stratified analyses. Since invariance of factor loadings is a prerequisite for valid comparison of the underlying latent variables, we propose a factor model that includes non-constant factor loadings that change over time and space using P-spline penalized with the generalized cross-validation (GCV) criterion. The model is implemented using the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm and we select the multiple spline smoothing parameters by minimizing the GCV criterion with Newton's method during each iteration of the EM algorithm. The algorithm is applied to a one-factor model that includes four constituents. Through bootstrap confidence bands, we find that the factor loading for total nitrate changes across seasons and geographic regions.

Long-term exposure to air pollution and type 2 diabetes mellitus in a multiethnic cohort.

Although air pollution has been suggested as a possible risk factor for type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM), results from existing epidemiologic studies have been inconsistent. We investigated the associations of prevalence and incidence of DM with long-term exposure to air pollution as estimated using annual average concentrations of particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 µm or less (PM2.5) and nitrogen oxides at baseline (2000) in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. All participants were aged 45-84 years at baseline and were recruited from 6 US sites. There were 5,839 participants included in the study of prevalent DM and 5,135 participants without DM at baseline in whom we studied incident DM. After adjustment for potential confounders, we found significant associations of prevalent DM with PM2.5 (odds ratio (OR) = 1.09, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.00, 1.17) and nitrogen oxides (OR = 1.18, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.38) per each interquartile-range increase (2.43 µg/m(3) and 47.1 ppb, respectively). Larger but nonsignificant associations were observed after further adjustment for study site (for PM2.5, OR = 1.16, 95% CI: 0.94, 1.42; for nitrogen oxides, OR = 1.29, 95% CI: 0.94, 1.76). No air pollution measures were significantly associated with incident DM over the course of the 9-year follow-up period. Results were partly consistent with a link between long-term exposure to air pollution and the risk of type 2 DM. Additional studies with a longer follow-up time and a greater range of air pollution exposures, including high levels, are warranted to evaluate the hypothesized association.

Vulnerability to extreme heat by socio-demographic characteristics and area green space among the elderly in Michigan, 1990-2007.

OBJECTIVES: We examined how individual and area socio-demographic characteristics independently modified the extreme heat (EH)-mortality association among elderly residents of 8 Michigan cities, May-September, 1990-2007. METHODS: In a time-stratified case-crossover design, we regressed cause-specific mortality against EH (indicator for 4-day mean, minimum, maximum or apparent temperature above 97th or 99 th percentiles). We examined effect modification with interactions between EH and personal marital status, age, race, sex and education and ZIP-code percent "non-green space" (National Land Cover Dataset), age, race, income, education, living alone, and housing age (U.S. Census). RESULTS: In models including multiple effect modifiers, the odds of cardiovascular mortality during EH (99 th percentile threshold) vs. non-EH were higher among non-married individuals (1.21, 95% CI=1.14-1.28 vs. 0.98, 95% CI=0.90-1.07 among married individuals) and individuals in ZIP codes with high (91%) non-green space (1.17, 95% CI=1.06-1.29 vs. 0.98, 95% CI=0.89-1.07 among individuals in ZIP codes with low (39%) non-green space). Results suggested that housing age may also be an effect modifier. For the EH-respiratory mortality association, the results were inconsistent between temperature metrics and percentile thresholds of EH but largely insignificant. CONCLUSIONS: Green space, housing and social isolation may independently enhance elderly peoples' heat-related cardiovascular mortality vulnerability. Local adaptation efforts should target areas and populations at greater risk.

Summer temperature variability and long-term survival among elderly people with chronic disease.

Time series studies show that hot temperatures are associated with increased death rates in the short term. In light of evidence of adaptation to usual temperature but higher deaths at unusual temperatures, a long-term exposure relevant to mortality might be summertime temperature variability, which is expected to increase with climate change. We investigated whether the standard deviation (SD) of summer (June-August) temperatures was associated with survival in four cohorts of persons over age 65 y with predisposing diseases in 135 US cities. Using Medicare data (1985-2006), we constructed cohorts of persons hospitalized with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes, congestive heart failure, and myocardial infarction. City-specific yearly summer temperature variance was linked to the individuals during follow-up in each city and was treated as a time-varying exposure. We applied a Cox proportional hazard model for each cohort within each city, adjusting for individual risk factors, wintertime temperature variance, yearly ozone levels, and long-term trends, to estimate the chronic effects on mortality of long-term exposure to summer temperature SD, and then pooled results across cities. Mortality hazard ratios ranged from 1.028 (95% confidence interval, 1.013- 1.042) per 1 °C increase in summer temperature SD for persons with congestive heart failure to 1.040 (95% confidence interval, 1.022-1.059) per 1 °C increase for those with diabetes. Associations were higher in elderly persons and lower in cities with a higher percentage of land with green surface. Our data suggest that long-term increases in temperature variability may increase the risk of mortality in different subgroups of susceptible older populations.