What is the real number of Lyme disease cases in Canada?

BACKGROUND: Lyme disease is emerging in Canada due to expansion of the range of the tick vector Ixodes scapularis from the United States. National surveillance for human Lyme disease cases began in Canada in 2009. Reported numbers of cases increased from 144 cases in 2009 to 2025 in 2017. It has been claimed that few (< 10%) Lyme disease cases are reported associated with i) supposed under-diagnosis resulting from perceived inadequacies of serological testing for Lyme disease, ii) expectation that incidence in Canadian provinces and neighbouring US states should be similar, and iii) analysis of serological responses of dogs to the agent of Lyme disease, Borrelia burgdorferi. We argue that performance of serological testing for Lyme disease is well studied, and variations in test performance at different disease stages are accounted for in clinical diagnosis of Lyme disease, and in surveillance case definitions. Extensive surveillance for tick vectors has taken place in Canada providing a clear picture of the emergence of risk in the Canadian environment. This surveillance shows that the geographic scope of I. scapularis populations and Lyme disease risk is limited but increasing in Canada. The reported incidence of Lyme disease in Canada is consistent with this pattern of environmental risk, and the differences in Lyme disease incidence between US states and neighbouring Canadian provinces are consistent with geographic differences in environmental risk. Data on serological responses in dogs from Canada and the US are consistent with known differences in environmental risk, and in numbers of reported Lyme disease cases, between the US and Canada. CONCLUSION: The high level of consistency in data from human case and tick surveillance, and data on serological responses in dogs, suggests that a high degree of under-reporting in Canada is unlikely. We speculate that approximately one third of cases are reported in regions of emergence of Lyme disease, although prospective studies are needed to fully quantify under-reporting. In the meantime, surveillance continues to identify and track the ongoing emergence of Lyme disease, and the risk to the public, in Canada.

Risk factors associated with seropositivity to California serogroup viruses in humans and pet dogs, Quebec, Canada.

Jamestown Canyon and snowshoe hare viruses are two emerging human pathogens associated with cases of neuroinvasive disease in North America. This study aimed to identify environmental and individual risk factors for seropositivity to these arboviruses in humans and pet dogs from Québec, Canada, 2012-2014. In humans, areas with moderate densities of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) were associated with higher odds of seropositivity compared with areas with low densities of white-tailed deer (OR 2.50, P = 0.009) and odds of seropositivity were higher in males than in females (OR 2.03, P = 0.016). Among humans reporting more than 10 mosquito bites weekly, the odds of being seropositive were 4.44 times higher (P = 0.004) for people living in hardwood forested areas. Exposure to areas with coniferous forests was identified as the main environmental risk factor for seroconversion in dogs (OR 2.39, P = 0.04). These findings may help target further public health research, diagnostic and surveillance efforts in Canada.

Emerging arboviruses in Quebec, Canada: assessing public health risk by serology in humans, horses and pet dogs.

Periodic outbreaks of West Nile virus (WNV), Eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEEV) and to a lesser extent, California serogroup viruses (CSGV), have been reported in parts of Canada in the last decade. This study was designed to provide a broad assessment of arboviral activity in Quebec, Canada, by conducting serological surveys for these arboviruses in 196 horses, 1442 dogs and 485 humans. Sera were screened by a competitive enzyme linked immunosorbent assay and positive samples confirmed by plaque reduction neutralisation tests. The percentage of seropositive samples was 83·7%, 16·5%, 7·1% in horses, 18·8%, 0·6%, 0% in humans, 11·7%, 3·1%, 0% in adult dogs and 2·9%, 0·3%, 0% in juvenile dogs for CSGV, WNV and EEEV, respectively. Serological results in horses and dogs appeared to provide a meaningful assessment of risk to public health posed by multiple arboviruses.

Characterizing environmental risk factors for West Nile virus in Quebec, Canada, using clinical data in humans and serology in pet dogs.

The identification of specific environments sustaining emerging arbovirus amplification and transmission to humans is a key component of public health intervention planning. This study aimed at identifying environmental factors associated with West Nile virus (WNV) infections in southern Quebec, Canada, by modelling and jointly interpreting aggregated clinical data in humans and serological data in pet dogs. Environmental risk factors were estimated in humans by negative binomial regression based on a dataset of 191 human WNV clinical cases reported in the study area between 2011 and 2014. Risk factors for infection in dogs were evaluated by logistic and negative binomial models based on a dataset including WNV serological results from 1442 dogs sampled from the same geographical area in 2013. Forested lands were identified as low-risk environments in humans. Agricultural lands represented higher risk environments for dogs. Environments identified as impacting risk in the current study were somewhat different from those identified in other studies conducted in north-eastern USA, which reported higher risk in suburban environments. In the context of the current study, combining human and animal data allowed a more comprehensive and possibly a more accurate view of environmental WNV risk factors to be obtained than by studying aggregated human data alone.

Characterizing areas of potential human exposure to eastern equine encephalitis virus using serological and clinical data from horses.

Eastern equine encephalitis (EEE) is a rare but severe emerging vector-borne disease affecting human and animal populations in the northeastern United States where it is endemic. Key knowledge gaps remain about the epidemiology of EEE virus (EEEV) in areas where its emergence has more recently been reported. In Eastern Canada, viral activity has been recorded in mosquitoes and horses throughout the 2000s but cases of EEEV in humans have not been reported so far. This study was designed to provide an assessment of possible EEEV human exposure by modelling environmental risk factors for EEEV in horses, identifying high-risk environments and mapping risk in the province of Quebec, Canada. According to logistic models, being located near wooded swamps was a risk factor for seropositivity or disease in horses [odds ratio (OR) 4·15, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·16-14·8) whereas being located on agricultural lands was identified as protective (OR 0·75, 95% CI 0·62-0·92). A better understanding of the environmental risk of exposure to EEEV in Canada provides veterinary and public health officials with enhanced means to more effectively monitor the emergence of this public health risk and design targeted surveillance and preventive measures.

Evaluating the submission of digital images as a method of surveillance for Ixodes scapularis ticks.

Widespread access to the internet is offering new possibilities for data collection in surveillance. We explore, in this study, the possibility of using an electronic tool to monitor occurrence of the tick vector of Lyme disease, Ixodes scapularis. The study aimed to compare the capacity for ticks to be identified in web-based submissions of digital images/photographs, to the traditional specimen-based identification method used by the provincial public health laboratory in Quebec, Canada. Forty-one veterinary clinics participated in the study by submitting digital images of ticks collected from pets via a website for image-based identification by an entomologist. The tick specimens were then sent to the provincial public health laboratory to be identified by the 'gold standard' method using a microscope. Of the images submitted online, 74·3% (284/382) were considered of high-enough quality to allow identification. The laboratory identified 382 tick specimens from seven different species, with I. scapularis representing 76% of the total submissions. Of the 284 ticks suitable for image-based species identification, 276 (97·2%) were correctly identified (Kappa statistic of 0·92, Z = 15·46, P < 0·001). This study demonstrates that image-based tick identification may be an accurate and useful method of detecting ticks for surveillance when images are of suitable quality.

Complex population structure of Borrelia burgdorferi in southeastern and south central Canada as revealed by phylogeographic analysis.

Lyme disease, caused by the bacterium Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto, is an emerging zoonotic disease in Canada and is vectored by the blacklegged tick, Ixodes scapularis. Here we used Bayesian analyses of sequence types (STs), determined by multilocus sequence typing (MLST), to investigate the phylogeography of B. burgdorferi populations in southern Canada and the United States by analyzing MLST data from 564 B. burgdorferi-positive samples collected during surveillance. A total of 107 Canadian samples from field sites were characterized as part of this study, and these data were combined with existing MLST data for samples from the United States and Canada. Only 17% of STs were common between both countries, while 49% occurred only in the United States, and 34% occurred only in Canada. However, STs in southeastern Ontario and southwestern Quebec were typically identical to those in the northeastern United States, suggesting a recent introduction into this region from the United States. In contrast, STs in other locations in Canada (the Maritimes; Long Point, Ontario; and southeastern Manitoba) were frequently unique to those locations but were putative descendants of STs previously found in the United States. The picture in Canada is consistent with relatively recent introductions from multiple refugial populations in the United States. These data thus point to a geographic pattern of populations of B. burgdorferi in North America that may be more complex than simply comprising northeastern, midwestern, and Californian groups. We speculate that this reflects the complex ecology and spatial distribution of key reservoir hosts.

Evolutionary aspects of emerging Lyme disease in Canada.

In North America, Lyme disease (LD) is a tick-borne zoonosis caused by the spirochete bacterium Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto, which is maintained by wildlife. Tick vectors and bacteria are currently spreading into Canada and causing increasing numbers of cases of LD in humans and raising a pressing need for public health responses. There is no vaccine, and LD prevention depends on knowing who is at risk and informing them how to protect themselves from infection. Recently, it was found in the United States that some strains of B. burgdorferi sensu stricto cause severe disease, whereas others cause mild, self-limiting disease. While many strains occurring in the United States also occur in Canada, strains in some parts of Canada are different from those in the United States. We therefore recognize a need to identify which strains specific to Canada can cause severe disease and to characterize their geographic distribution to determine which Canadians are particularly at risk. In this review, we summarize the history of emergence of LD in North America, our current knowledge of B. burgdorferi sensu stricto diversity, its intriguing origins in the ecology and evolution of the bacterium, and its importance for the epidemiology and clinical and laboratory diagnosis of LD. We propose methods for investigating associations between B. burgdorferi sensu stricto diversity, ecology, and pathogenicity and for developing predictive tools to guide public health interventions. We also highlight the emergence of B. burgdorferi sensu stricto in Canada as a unique opportunity for exploring the evolutionary aspects of tick-borne pathogen emergence.

Epidemiology and aetiology of encephalitis in Canada, 1994-2008: a case for undiagnosed arboviral agents?

Encephalitis is a clinical syndrome often associated with infectious agents. This study describes the epidemiology and disease burden associated with encephalitis in Canada and explores possible associations with arboviral causes. Encephalitis-associated hospitalizations, 1994-2008, were analysed according to aetiological category (based on ICD-9/ICD-10 codes) and other factors using multivariate logistic regression for grouped (blocked) data and negative binomial regression. A discrete Poisson model tested spatio-temporal clustering of hospitalizations associated with unclassified and arboviral encephalitis aetiologies. Encephalitis accounted for an estimated 24028 hospitalizations in Canada (5·2/100 000 population) and unknown aetiologies represented 50% of these hospitalizations. In 2003, clusters of unclassified encephalitis were identified in the summer and early autumn months signifying potential underlying arboviral aetiologies. Spatio-temporal patterns in encephalitis hospitalizations may help us to better understand the disease burden associated with arboviruses and other zoonotic pathogens in Canada and to develop appropriate surveillance systems.

Harvested white-tailed deer as sentinel hosts for early establishing Ixodes scapularis populations and risk from vector-borne zoonoses in southeastern Canada.

Due to recent establishment of the blacklegged tick, Ixodes scapularis Say, in southeastern Canada, tick-borne zoonoses (Lyme disease, human granulocytotropic anaplasmosis, and babesiosis) are of growing concern for public health. Using white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) culled in southwestern Quebec during 2007-2008, we investigated whether hunter-killed deer could act as sentinels for early establishing tick populations and for tick-borne pathogens. Accounting for environmental characteristics of culling sites, and age and sex of deer, we investigated whether their tick infestation levels could identify locations of known tick populations detected in active surveillance, presumed tick populations detected by passive surveillance, or both. We also used spatial cluster analyses to identify spatial patterns of tick infestation and occurrence of tick-borne zoonoses infection in ticks collected from the deer. Adult ticks were found on 15% of the 583 deer examined. Adult male deer had the greatest number (approximately 90%) of adult ticks. Overall, 3, 15, and 0% of the ticks collected were polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-positive for Borrelia burgdorferi, Anaplasma phagocytophilum, and Babesia microti, respectively. Our statistical analyses suggest that sex and age of deer, temperature, precipitation, and an index of tick dispersion by migratory birds were significantly associated with tick infestation levels. Cluster analysis identified significant clusters of deer carrying ticks PCR-positive for A. phagocytophilum, and for deer carrying two or more I. scapularis. Our study suggests that hunter-killed deer may be effective as sentinels for emerging areas of tick-borne anaplasmosis. They may have limited use as sentinels for early emerging I. scapularis tick populations and emerging Lyme disease risk.

Investigation of the population structure of the tick vector of Lyme disease Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) in Canada using mitochondrial cytochrome C oxidase subunit I gene sequences.

Genotyping of Ixodes scapularis Say (Acari: Ixodidae) ticks could enhance understanding of the occurrence and genotypes of I. scapularis-borne pathogens. We investigated the utility of mitochondrial (mt) Cytochrome C Oxidase subunit I gene (cox1) sequences as a tool for understanding the population structure of I. scapularis collected in Canada, where we also investigated the geographic occurrence of different cox1 haplotypes. Sequences obtained from 414 ticks were one of 55 unique haplotypes, most of which grouped into one of six clades. Demographic analysis suggested that cox1 sequences have haplotype and nucleotide diversity comparable to other mt genes. All haplotypes were connected in a single minimum spanning network tree. Despite low fixation index values there were significant differences in the frequency of occurrence of haplotypes of different clades among four geographic regions: 1) Alberta to western Ontario, 2) eastern Ontario, 3) Quebec, and 4) Atlantic Provinces; suggesting that cox1 sequences could reveal population structure differences between I. scapularis in geographically separated populations of northeastern and midwestern North America. Spatial clusters of ticks of the same haplotype identified in regions of southern Quebec and southern Ontario where I. scapularis is invading were consistent with population bottlenecks associated with founder events. These findings suggest that cox1 sequences are useful for the study of I. scapularis population structure, are of sufficient diversity that spatial analyses of haplotypes can be used to identify where I. scapularis is emerging in southern Canada, and may be useful for exploring differences between northeastern and midwestern populations of I. scapularis.

Investigation of genotypes of Borrelia burgdorferi in Ixodes scapularis ticks collected during surveillance in Canada.

The genetic diversity of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto, the agent of Lyme disease in North America, has consequences for the performance of serological diagnostic tests and disease severity. To investigate B. burgdorferi diversity in Canada, where Lyme disease is emerging, bacterial DNA in 309 infected adult Ixodes scapularis ticks collected in surveillance was characterized by multilocus sequence typing (MLST) and analysis of outer surface protein C gene (ospC) alleles. Six ticks carried Borrelia miyamotoi, and one tick carried the novel species Borrelia kurtenbachii. 142 ticks carried B. burgdorferi sequence types (STs) previously described from the United States. Fifty-eight ticks carried B. burgdorferi of 1 of 19 novel or undescribed STs, which were single-, double-, or triple-locus variants of STs first described in the United States. Clonal complexes with founder STs from the United States were identified. Seventeen ospC alleles were identified in 309 B. burgdorferi-infected ticks. Positive and negative associations in the occurrence of different alleles in the same tick supported a hypothesis of multiple-niche polymorphism for B. burgdorferi in North America. Geographic analysis of STs and ospC alleles were consistent with south-to-north dispersion of infected ticks from U.S. sources on migratory birds. These observations suggest that the genetic diversity of B. burgdorferi in eastern and central Canada corresponds to that in the United States, but there was evidence for founder events skewing the diversity in emerging tick populations. Further studies are needed to investigate the significance of these observations for the performance of diagnostic tests and clinical presentation of Lyme disease in Canada.

Spatio-temporal variations and age effect on Toxoplasma gondii seroprevalence in seals from the Canadian Arctic.

Toxoplasmosis is a significant public health threat for Inuit in the Canadian Arctic. This study aimed to investigate arctic seals as a possible food-borne source of infection. Blood samples collected from 828 seals in 7 Canadian Arctic communities from 1999 to 2006 were tested for Toxoplasma gondii antibodies using a direct agglutination test. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) was used to detect T. gondii DNA in tissues of a subsample of seals. Associations between seal age, sex, species, diet, community and year of capture, and serological test results were investigated by logistic regression. Overall seroprevalence was 10·4% (86/828). All tissues tested were negative by PCR. In ringed seals, seroprevalence was significantly higher in juveniles than in adults (odds ratio=2·44). Overall, seroprevalence varied amongst communities (P=0·0119) and by capture year (P=0·0001). Our study supports the hypothesis that consumption of raw seal meat is a significant source of infection for Inuit. This work raises many questions about the mechanism of transfer of this terrestrial parasite to the marine environment, the preponderance of infection in younger animals and the natural course of infection in seals. Further studies to address these questions are essential to fully understand the health risks for Inuit communities.

Mosquito Identification From Bulk Samples Using DNA Metabarcoding: a Protocol to Support Mosquito-Borne Disease Surveillance in Canada.

Approximately 80 species of mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) have been documented in Canada. Exotic species such as Aedes albopictus (Skuse) (Diptera: Culicidae) are becoming established. Recently occurring endemic mosquito-borne diseases (MBD) in Canada including West-Nile virus (WNV) and Eastern Equine Encephalitis (EEE) are having significant public health impacts. Here we explore the use of DNA metabarcoding to identify mosquitoes from CDC light-trap collections from two locations in eastern Canada. Two primer pairs (BF2-BR2 and F230) were used to amplify regions of the cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (CO1) gene. High throughput sequencing was conducted using an Illumina MiSeq platform and GenBank-based species identification was applied using a QIIME 1.9 bioinformatics pipeline. From a site in southeastern Ontario, Canada, 26 CDC light trap collections of 72 to >300 individual mosquitoes were used to explore the capacity of DNA metabarcoding to identify and quantify captured mosquitoes. The DNA metabarcoding method identified 33 species overall while 24 species were identified by key. Using replicates from each trap, the dried biomass needed to identify the majority of species was determined to be 76 mg (equivalent to approximately 72 mosquitoes), and at least two replicates from the dried biomass would be needed to reliably detect the majority of species in collections of 144-215 mosquitoes and three replicates would be advised for collections with >215 mosquitoes. This study supports the use of DNA metabarcoding as a mosquito surveillance tool in Canada which can help identify the emergence of new mosquito-borne disease potential threats.

Climate change and infectious diseases: What can we expect?

Global climate change, driven by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, is being particularly felt in Canada, with warming generally greater than in the rest of the world. Continued warming will be accompanied by changes in precipitation, which will vary across the country and seasons, and by increasing climate variability and extreme weather events. Climate change will likely drive the emergence of infectious diseases in Canada by northward spread from the United States and introduction from elsewhere in the world via air and sea transport. Diseases endemic to Canada are also likely to re-emerge. This special issue describes key infectious disease risks associated with climate change. These include emergence of tick-borne diseases in addition to Lyme disease, the possible introduction of exotic mosquito-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue, more epidemics of Canada-endemic vector-borne diseases such as West Nile virus, and increased incidence of foodborne illnesses. Risk is likely to be compounded by an aging population affected by chronic diseases, which results in greater sensitivity to infectious diseases. Identifying emerging disease risks is essential to assess our vulnerability, and a starting point to identify where public health effort is required to reduce the vulnerability and exposure of the Canadian population.

Weather-based forecasting of mosquito-borne disease outbreaks in Canada.

Early warning systems to predict infectious disease outbreaks have been identified as a key adaptive response to climate change. Warming, climate variability and extreme weather events associated with climate change are expected to drive an increase in frequency and intensity of mosquito-borne disease (MBD) outbreaks globally. In Canada, this will mean an increased risk of endemic and emerging MBD outbreaks such as West Nile virus and other MBDs. The availability of timely information on the risk of impending MBD outbreaks has important public health implications, by allowing implementation of mosquito control measures and targeted communications regarding the need for increased personal protective measures-before an outbreak occurs. In Canada, both mechanistic and statistical weather-based models have been developed to predict West Nile virus outbreaks. These include models for different species of mosquitoes that transmit West Nile virus in different geographical areas of Canada. Although initial results have been promising, further validation and assessment of forecasting skill are needed before wide scale implementation. Weather-based forecasting for other emerging MBDs in Canada, such as Eastern equine encephalitis, may also be feasible.

Quebec's Multi-Party Observatory on Zoonoses and Adaptation to Climate Change.

Climate change has been linked with the establishment and geographical expansion of zoonotic diseases, an example of which is the well-documented increase in human cases of Lyme disease in Quebec, Canada. As temperatures continue to increase in Quebec, it is anticipated that several zoonotic diseases will be affected. In response to the growing zoonotic issues facing public health authorities, Quebec's Multi-Party Observatory on Zoonoses and Adaptation to Climate Change (Observatoire multipartite québécois sur les zoonoses et l'adaptation aux changements climatiques) (the Observatory) was founded in 2015 as part of the Quebec government's Climate Change Action Plan (Plan d'action 2013-2020 sur les changements climatiques). The Observatory was designed to bring together agencies involved in formulating public policy and experts from the disciplines of human health, animal health and environmental sciences, in a manner similar to the innovative "One World, One Health" approach. The Observatory provides a platform for knowledge sharing and consensus building among representatives of public policy decision makers and scientists. Its main objectives are to anticipate and prioritize potential issues associated with zoonotic diseases in Quebec, in order to support applicable risk management and climate change adaptation. This article describes what the Observatory is, what it does and outlines its plans for the future.