Predictive ability of symptomatology in COVID-19 during Active case search in Lagos State, Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: In April 2020, a community-based active case search surveillance system of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was developed by the emergency outbreak committee in Lagos State. This followed the evidence of community transmission of coronavirus disease in the twenty Local Government Areas in Lagos State. This study assessed the value of respiratory and other symptoms in predicting positive SARS-CoV-2 using reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). It is hoped that if symptoms are predictive, they can be used in screening before testing. METHODS: Communities were included based on the alerts from community members through the rumour alert system set up by the state. All members of the households of the communities from where the alert came were eligible. Household members who declined to participate were excluded from the study. A standardised interviewer-administered electronic investigation form was used to collect sociodemographic information, clinical details and history for each possible case. Data was analysed to see the extent of agreement or correlation between reported symptoms and the results of PCR testing for SARS-COV-2. RESULTS: A total of 12,739 persons were interviewed. The most common symptoms were fever, general weakness, cough and difficulty in breathing. Different symptoms recorded different levels of sensitivity as follows: fever, 28.9%; cough, 21.7%; general body weakness, 10.9%; and sore throat, 10.9%. Sensitivity and specificity for fever, the most common symptom, were 28.3% and 50.2%, respectively, while similar parameters for general body weakness, the next most common symptom, were 10.9% and 73.2%, respectively. CONCLUSION: From these findings, the predictive ability of symptoms for COVID-19 diagnosis was extremely weak. It is unlikely that symptoms alone will suffice to predict COVID-19 in a patient. An additional measure, such as confirmatory test by RT-PCR testing, is necessary to confirm the disease.

Barriers and facilitators to the delivery of age-friendly health services in Primary Health Care centres in southwest, Nigeria: A qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: With the rapid growth of Nigeria's older population, it has become important to establish age-friendly healthcare systems that support care for older people. This study aimed to explore the barriers and facilitators to the delivery of age-friendly health services from the perspectives of primary healthcare managers in Lagos State, Nigeria. METHOD: We conducted 13 key informant interviews including medical officers of health, principal officers of the (Primary Health Care) PHC Board and board members at the state level. Using a grounded theory approach, qualitative data analysis was initially done by rapid thematic analysis followed by constant comparative analysis using Dedoose software to create a codebook. Three teams of two coders each blind-coded the interviews, resolved coding discrepancies, and reviewed excerpts by code to extract themes. RESULTS: The main barriers to the delivery of age-friendly services included the lack of recognition of older adults as a priority population group; absence of PHC policies targeted to serve older adults specifically; limited training in care of older adults; lack of dedicated funding for care services for older adults and data disaggregated by age to drive decision-making. Key facilitators included an acknowledged mission of the PHCs to provide services for all ages; opportunities for the enhancement of older adult care; availability of a new building template that supports facility design which is more age-friendly; access to basic health care funds; and a positive attitude towards capacity building for existing workforce. CONCLUSION: While we identified a number of challenges, these offer opportunities to strengthen and prioritize services for older adults in PHCs and build on existing facilitators. Work is needed to identify and test interventions to overcome these challenges and improve the responsiveness of the PHC system to older adults through the delivery of age-friendly health services in PHCs in Lagos, Nigeria.

Provider and facility readiness for age-friendly health services for older adults in primary health care centres in southwest, Nigeria.

There is a growing focus on interventions at the health system level to promote healthy aging and provide age-friendly health services (AFHS) in low- and middle-income countries where populations are aging. This study aimed to determine the provider and facility readiness for AFHS. We developed and implemented surveys to collect PHC facility capacity and readiness to deliver AFHS and a KAP survey for facility healthcare workers based on guidelines from the WHO age-friendly tool kit and questionnaires from other studies. Direct observation and structured interviews of facility heads were conducted in a stratified random sample of 15 out of the 57 comprehensive PHC facilities in Lagos, Nigeria. One hundred and twenty providers were conveniently sampled for the KAP survey. Statistical analysis was conducted using STATA version 15 (StataCorp, College Station, Texas, USA). For facility readiness, only 13.3% of PHCs sometimes offered hearing assessment and none of the PHCs offered colorectal cancer assessment. Few (20.0%) facilities offered home services and only 1 (0.7%) had dedicated funding for care of older people. Ramps were at the entrance in 60.0% of facilities and almost half (43.3%) of the PHCs had wheelchair accessible entrances to the public toilets. The majority of HCWs (81.7%) had heard about healthy aging but only 5.0% about AFHS, only 10.8% reported formal training. Around a third knew about specific conditions which affect people as they age, including; depression (37.5%), urinary incontinence (35.0%), and falls/immobility (33.3%). Over half of the providers (54.2%) screened for malnutrition in older patients, 25.8% screened for suspected elder abuse and much less (19.2%) for delirium. This study found some areas of strength but also gaps in facility readiness as well as knowledge and training needed to support AFHS care. We recommend identifying interventions to improve the availability and delivery of care for older adults.

Distribution of Cancer and Cancer Screening and Treatment Services in Lagos: A 10-Year Review of Hospital Records.

PURPOSE: In Lagos State, Nigeria, the population distribution of cancers is poorly described because studies are conducted at a few tertiary hospitals. Therefore, this study aims to map all health facilities where cancer screening takes place and describe the cases of cancer screened for and treated. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey to identify facilities involved in screening and management of cancers was performed followed by extraction of data on individual cases of cancer screened for and treated at these facilities from 2011 to 2020. All health care facilities in the state were visited, and the survey was performed using standardized national tools modified to capture additional information on cancer screening and treatment. Data analysis was performed using STATA version 14 and R version 3.6.3. RESULTS: Cervical cancer was the commonest cancer, accounting for 55% of 2,420 cancers screened, followed by breast (41%), prostate (4%), and colorectal cancers (0.2%). Of the 7,682 cancers treated among Lagos residents, the top five were breast (45%), colorectal (8%), cervical (8%), prostate (5%), and ovarian (4%). The female:male ratio of cancer cases was 3:1. The peak age for cancer among females and males was in the 40- to 49-year age group and 60- to 69-year age group, respectively. The Ikorodu local government area had the highest rate of reported cancer per million population. CONCLUSION: Cancer screening is poor with a significant gap in screening for breast cancer since it is the commonest cancer in the state. The findings indicate the urgent need for the establishment of organized screening programs for the predominant cancers in the state and the prioritization of cancer research that addresses key policy and program questions.

Outcomes of COVID-19 patients with comorbidities in southwest Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: Data on the comorbidities that result in negative outcomes for people with COVID-19 are currently scarce for African populations. This study identifies comorbidities that predict death among a large sample of COVID-19 patients from Nigeria. METHODS: This was a retrospective analysis of medical records for 2184 laboratory confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Lagos, southwest Nigeria. Extracted data included age, sex, severity of condition at presentation and self-reported comorbidities. The outcomes of interest were death or discharge from facility. RESULTS: Most of the cases were male (65.8%) and the median age was 43 years (IQR: 33-55). Four hundred and ninety-two patients (22.5%) had at least one comorbidity and the most common amongst them were hypertension (74.2%) and diabetes (30.3%). The mortality rate was 3.3% and a significantly higher proportion of patients with comorbidities died compared to those with none. The comorbidities that predicted death were hypertension (OR: 2.21, 95%CI: 1.22-4.01), diabetes (OR: 3.69, 95% CI: 1.99-6.85), renal disease (OR: 12.53, 95%CI: 1.97-79.56), cancer (OR: 14.12, 95% CI: 2.03-98.19) and HIV (OR: 1.77-84.15]. CONCLUSION: Comorbidities are prevalent and the associated risk of death is high among COVID-19 patients in Lagos, Nigeria. Public enlightenment, early identification and targeted care for COVID-19 cases with comorbidities are recommended as the pandemic evolves.

Presenting Symptoms and Predictors of Poor Outcomes Among 2,184 Patients with COVID-19 in Lagos State, Nigeria.

INTRODUCTION: Lagos state remains the epicentre of COVID-19 in Nigeria. We describe the symptoms and signs of the first 2,184 PCR-confirmed COVID-19 patients admitted at COVID-19 treatment centers in Lagos State. We also assessed the relationship between patients' presenting symptoms, sociodemographic and clinical characteristics and COVID-19 deaths.. METHODS: Medical records of PCR-confirmed COVID-19 patients were extracted and analyzed for their symptoms, symptom severity, presence of comorbidities and outcome. RESULTS: The ages of the patients ranged from 4 days to 98 years with a mean of 43.0(16.0) years. Of the patients who presented with symptoms, cough (19.3%) was the most common presenting symptom. This was followed by fever (13.7%) and difficulty in breathing, (10.9%). The most significant clinical predictor of death was the severity of symptoms and signs at presentation. Difficulty in breathing was the most significant symptom predictor of COVID-19 death (OR:19.26 95% CI 10.95-33.88). The case fatality rate was 4.3%. CONCLUSION: Primary care physicians and COVID-19 frontline workers should maintain a high index of suspicion and prioritize the care of patients presenting with these symptoms. Community members should be educated on such predictors and ensure that patients with these symptoms seek care early to reduce the risk of deaths associated with COVID-19.

Morbidity and mortality outcomes of COVID-19 patients with and without hypertension in Lagos, Nigeria: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The current pandemic of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has shown epidemiological and clinical characteristics that appear worsened in hypertensive patients. The morbidity and mortality of the disease among hypertensive patients in Africa have yet to be well described. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study all confirmed COVID-19 adult patients (≥18 years of age) in Lagos between February 27 to July 62,020 were included. Demographic, clinical and outcome data were extracted from electronic medical records of patients admitted at the COVID-19 isolation centers in Lagos. Outcomes included dying, being discharged after recovery or being evacuated/transferred. Descriptive statistics considered proportions, means and medians. The Chi-square and Fisher's exact tests were used in determining associations between variables. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox regression were performed to quantify the risk of worse outcomes among hypertensives with COVID-19 and adjust for confounders. P-value ≤0.05 was considered statistically significant. RESULTS: A total of 2075 adults with COVID-19 were included in this study. The prevalence of hypertension, the most common comorbidity, was 17.8% followed by diabetes (7.2%) and asthma (2.0%). Overall mortality was 4.2% while mortality among the hypertensives was 13.7%. Severe symptoms and mortality were significantly higher among the hypertensives and survival rates were significantly lowered by the presence of additional comorbidity to 50% from 91% for those with hypertension alone and from 98% for all other patients (P < 0.001). After adjustment for confounders (age and sex), severe COVID-19and death were higher for hypertensives {severe/critical illness: HR = 2.41, P = 0.001, 95%CI = 1.4-4.0, death: HR = 2.30, P = 0.001, 95%CI = 1.2-4.6, for those with hypertension only} {severe/critical illness: HR = 3.76, P = 0.001, 95%CI = 2.1-6.4, death: crude HR = 6.63, P = 0.001, 95%CI = 3.4-1.6, for those with additional comorbidities}. Hypertension posed an increased risk of severe morbidity (approx. 4-fold) and death (approx. 7-fold) from COVID-19 in the presence of multiple comorbidities. CONCLUSION: The potential morbidity and mortality risks of hypertension especially with other comorbidities in COVID-19 could help direct efforts towards prevention and prognostication. This provides the rationale for improving preventive caution for people with hypertension and other comorbidities and prioritizing them for future antiviral interventions.