Understanding the impact of mobility on COVID-19 spread: A hybrid gravity-metapopulation model of COVID-19.

The outbreak of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 started in Wuhan, China, towards the end of 2019 and spread worldwide. The rapid spread of the disease can be attributed to many factors including its high infectiousness and the high rate of human mobility around the world. Although travel/movement restrictions and other non-pharmaceutical interventions aimed at controlling the disease spread were put in place during the early stages of the pandemic, these interventions did not stop COVID-19 spread. To better understand the impact of human mobility on the spread of COVID-19 between regions, we propose a hybrid gravity-metapopulation model of COVID-19. Our modeling framework has the flexibility of determining mobility between regions based on the distances between the regions or using data from mobile devices. In addition, our model explicitly incorporates time-dependent human mobility into the disease transmission rate, and has the potential to incorporate other factors that affect disease transmission such as facemasks, physical distancing, contact rates, etc. An important feature of this modeling framework is its ability to independently assess the contribution of each factor to disease transmission. Using a Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework, we calibrate our model to the weekly reported cases of COVID-19 in thirteen local health areas in Metro Vancouver, British Columbia (BC), Canada, from July 2020 to January 2021. We consider two main scenarios in our model calibration: using a fixed distance matrix and time-dependent weekly mobility matrices. We found that the distance matrix provides a better fit to the data, whilst the mobility matrices have the ability to explain the variance in transmission between regions. This result shows that the mobility data provides more information in terms of disease transmission than the distances between the regions.

Physiologic oxygen responses to smoking opioids: an observational study using continuous pulse oximetry at overdose prevention services in British Columbia, Canada.

BACKGROUND: In British Columbia, Canada, smoking is the most common modality of drug use among people who die of opioid toxicity. We aimed to assess oxygen saturation (SpO2) while people smoked opioids during a pilot study that introduced continuous pulse oximetry at overdose prevention services (OPS) sites. METHODS: This was an observational cohort study, using a participatory design. We implemented our monitoring protocol from March to August 2021 at four OPS. We included adults (≥ 18 years) presenting to smoke opioids. A sensor taped to participants' fingers transmitted real-time SpO2 readings to a remote monitor viewed by OPS staff. Peer researchers collected baseline data and observed the timing of participants' inhalations. We analyzed SpO2 on a per-event basis. In mixed-effects logistic regression models, drop in minimum SpO2 ≤ 90% in the current minute was our main outcome variable. Inhalation in that same minute was our main predictor. We also examined inhalation in the previous minute, cumulative inhalations, inhalation rate, demographics, co-morbidities, and substance use variables. RESULTS: We recorded 599 smoking events; 72.8% (436/599) had analyzable SpO2 data. Participants' mean age was 38.6 years (SD 11.3 years) and 73.1% were male. SpO2 was highly variable within and between individuals. Drop in SpO2 ≤ 90% was not significantly associated with inhalation in that same minute (OR: 1.2 [0.8-1.78], p = 0.261) or inhalation rate (OR 0.47 [0.20-1.10], p = 0.082). There was an association of SpO2 drop with six cumulative inhalations (OR 3.38 [1.04-11.03], p = 0.043); this was not maintained ≥ 7 inhalations. Demographics, co-morbidities, and drug use variables were non-contributory. CONCLUSIONS: Continuous pulse oximetry SpO2 monitoring is a safe adjunct to monitoring people who smoke opioids at OPS. Our data reflect challenges of real-world monitoring, indicating that greater supports are needed for frontline responders at OPS. Inconsistent association between inhalations and SpO2 suggests that complex factors (e.g., inhalation depth/duration, opioid tolerance, drug use setting) contribute to hypoxemia and overdose risk while people smoke opioids.

A Review on Microbiological Source Attribution Methods of Human Salmonellosis: From Subtyping to Whole-Genome Sequencing.

Salmonella is one of the main causes of human foodborne illness. It is endemic worldwide, with different animals and animal-based food products as reservoirs and vehicles of infection. Identifying animal reservoirs and potential transmission pathways of Salmonella is essential for prevention and control. There are many approaches for source attribution, each using different statistical models and data streams. Some aim to identify the animal reservoir, while others aim to determine the point at which exposure occurred. With the advance of whole-genome sequencing (WGS) technologies, new source attribution models will greatly benefit from the discriminating power gained with WGS. This review discusses some key source attribution methods and their mathematical and statistical tools. We also highlight recent studies utilizing WGS for source attribution and discuss open questions and challenges in developing new WGS methods. We aim to provide a better understanding of the current state of these methodologies with application to Salmonella and other foodborne pathogens that are common sources of illness in the poultry and human sectors.

Revealing mechanisms of infectious disease spread through empirical contact networks.

The spread of pathogens fundamentally depends on the underlying contacts between individuals. Modeling the dynamics of infectious disease spread through contact networks, however, can be challenging due to limited knowledge of how an infectious disease spreads and its transmission rate. We developed a novel statistical tool, INoDS (Identifying contact Networks of infectious Disease Spread) that estimates the transmission rate of an infectious disease outbreak, establishes epidemiological relevance of a contact network in explaining the observed pattern of infectious disease spread and enables model comparison between different contact network hypotheses. We show that our tool is robust to incomplete data and can be easily applied to datasets where infection timings of individuals are unknown. We tested the reliability of INoDS using simulation experiments of disease spread on a synthetic contact network and find that it is robust to incomplete data and is reliable under different settings of network dynamics and disease contagiousness compared with previous approaches. We demonstrate the applicability of our method in two host-pathogen systems: Crithidia bombi in bumblebee colonies and Salmonella in wild Australian sleepy lizard populations. INoDS thus provides a novel and reliable statistical tool for identifying transmission pathways of infectious disease spread. In addition, application of INoDS extends to understanding the spread of novel or emerging infectious disease, an alternative approach to laboratory transmission experiments, and overcoming common data-collection constraints.

Observed versus expected rates of myocarditis after SARS-CoV-2 vaccination: a population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Postmarketing evaluations have linked myocarditis to SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccines. We sought to estimate the incidence of myocarditis after mRNA vaccination against SARS-CoV-2, and to compare the incidence with expected rates based on historical background rates in British Columbia. METHODS: We conducted an observational study using population health administrative data from the BC COVID-19 Cohort from Dec. 15, 2020, to Mar. 10, 2022. The primary exposure was any dose of an mRNA vaccine against SARS-CoV-2. The primary outcome was incidence of hospital admission or emergency department visit for myocarditis or myopericarditis within 7 and 21 days postvaccination, calculated as myocarditis rates per 100 000 mRNA vaccine doses, expected rates of myocarditis cases and observedto-expected ratios. We stratified analyses by age, sex, vaccine type and dose number. RESULTS: We observed 99 incident cases of myocarditis within 7 days (0.97 cases per 100 000 vaccine doses; observed v. expected ratio 14.81, 95% confidence interval [CI] 10.83-16.55) and 141 cases within 21 days (1.37 cases per 100 000 vaccine doses; observed v. expected ratio 7.03, 95% CI 5.92-8.29) postvaccination. Cases of myocarditis per 100 000 vaccine doses were higher for people aged 12-17 years (2.64, 95% CI 1.54-4.22) and 18-29 years (2.63, 95% CI 1.94-3.50) than for older age groups, for males compared with females (1.64, 95% CI 1.30-2.04 v. 0.35, 95% CI 0.21-0.55), for those receiving a second dose compared with a third dose (1.90, 95% CI 1.50-2.39 v. 0.76, 95% CI 0.45-1.30) and for those who received the mRNA-1273 (Moderna) vaccine compared with the BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) vaccine (1.44, 95% CI 1.06-1.91 v. 0.74, 95% CI 0.56-0.98). The highest observed-to-expected ratio was seen after the second dose among males aged 18-29 years who received the mRNA-1273 vaccine (148.32, 95% CI 95.03-220.69). INTERPRETATION: Although absolute rates of myocarditis were low, vaccine type, age and sex are important factors to consider when strategizing vaccine administration to reduce the risk of postvaccination myocarditis. Our findings support the preferential use of the BNT162b2 vaccine over the mRNA-1273 vaccine for people aged 18-29 years.

Quantifying the impact of COVID-19 control measures using a Bayesian model of physical distancing.

Extensive non-pharmaceutical and physical distancing measures are currently the primary interventions against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) worldwide. It is therefore urgent to estimate the impact such measures are having. We introduce a Bayesian epidemiological model in which a proportion of individuals are willing and able to participate in distancing, with the timing of distancing measures informed by survey data on attitudes to distancing and COVID-19. We fit our model to reported COVID-19 cases in British Columbia (BC), Canada, and five other jurisdictions, using an observation model that accounts for both underestimation and the delay between symptom onset and reporting. We estimated the impact that physical distancing (social distancing) has had on the contact rate and examined the projected impact of relaxing distancing measures. We found that, as of April 11 2020, distancing had a strong impact in BC, consistent with declines in reported cases and in hospitalization and intensive care unit numbers; individuals practising physical distancing experienced approximately 0.22 (0.11-0.34 90% CI [credible interval]) of their normal contact rate. The threshold above which prevalence was expected to grow was 0.55. We define the "contact ratio" to be the ratio of the estimated contact rate to the threshold rate at which cases are expected to grow; we estimated this contact ratio to be 0.40 (0.19-0.60) in BC. We developed an R package 'covidseir' to make our model available, and used it to quantify the impact of distancing in five additional jurisdictions. As of May 7, 2020, we estimated that New Zealand was well below its threshold value (contact ratio of 0.22 [0.11-0.34]), New York (0.60 [0.43-0.74]), Washington (0.84 [0.79-0.90]) and Florida (0.86 [0.76-0.96]) were progressively closer to theirs yet still below, but California (1.15 [1.07-1.23]) was above its threshold overall, with cases still rising. Accordingly, we found that BC, New Zealand, and New York may have had more room to relax distancing measures than the other jurisdictions, though this would need to be done cautiously and with total case volumes in mind. Our projections indicate that intermittent distancing measures-if sufficiently strong and robustly followed-could control COVID-19 transmission. This approach provides a useful tool for jurisdictions to monitor and assess current levels of distancing relative to their threshold, which will continue to be essential through subsequent waves of this pandemic.

Impacts of Human Papillomavirus Immunization Programs on Rates of Anogenital Warts in British Columbia, Canada, 2000 to 2017.

BACKGROUND: In 2008, British Columbia (BC) implemented a school-based quadrivalent human papillomavirus (HPV-4) immunization program for girls born in 1994 or later. In 2015, an expanded clinic-based program included men who report sex with men (MSM) born in 1989 or later. To evaluate the impacts of HPV-4 programs on anogenital warts (AGWs), diagnosis rates were measured among women who report sex with men (WSM), men who report sex with women (MSW), and MSM. METHODS: Diagnoses of AGW were ascertained from 16 sexually transmitted infection clinics. Rates were calculated as new AGW diagnoses over person-years (py) at risk and stratified by age group, calendar period, and birth cohort. Adjusted relative rates (aRR) were estimated using multivariable Poisson regression. RESULTS: There were 204,832 clinic visits by 85,158 individuals: 28,366 (33%) WSM, 35,688 (42%) MSW, and 14,534 (17%) MSM. After adjusting for age and period, AGW rates in the 1994-1996 birth cohort decreased by 56% overall (1.21 vs. 2.72 cases/100 py; aRR, 0.44; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.34-0.59), 65% among WSM (0.97 vs. 2.77 cases/100 py; aRR, 0.35; 95% CI, 0.22-0.57), 58% among MSW (1.60 vs. 3.78 cases/100 py; aRR, 0.42; 95% CI, 0.28-0.65), and 41% among MSM (1.14 vs. 1.19 cases/100 py; aRR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.38-0.91) versus the 1991-1993 birth cohort. CONCLUSIONS: The HPV-4 programs had significant impacts on lowering AGW rates in BC. The greatest decrease was among WSM eligible for the school-based program, followed by birth cohorts of men who likely have sex with HPV-4 eligible women. The smallest decrease among MSM may reflect the later introduction of the clinic-based program.

Measuring the impact of sea surface temperature on the human incidence of Vibrio sp. infection in British Columbia, Canada, 1992-2017.

BACKGROUND: Vibrio growth in the environment is related to sea surface temperature (SST). The incidence of human Vibrio illness increased sharply in British Columbia (BC) between 2008 and 2015 for unknown reasons, culminating in the largest outbreak of shellfish-associated Vibrio parahaemolyticus (Vp) in Canadian history in 2015. Our objective was to assess the relationship between SST and Vibrio illness in BC, Canada during 1992-2017 and assess the role of SST and other environmental factors in the 2015 Vp outbreak. METHODS: Cases of Vibrio infection reported to the BC Centre for Disease Control during 1992-2017 were used. SST data were obtained from NOAA and NASA. We assessed changes in incidence trend of annual Vibrio cases during 1992-2017 using a Poisson regression. We assessed the correlation between annual Vibrio cases and the average annual maximum SST using a Spearman rank-order correlation. We modeled the association between weekly Vp case counts, SST and other environmental factors during 2007-2017 using a Poisson regression. RESULTS: There was a significant increase in Vibrio cases between 2008 and 2015 (annual slope = 0.163, P < 0.001). Increased Vibrio incidence was observed in most El Niño years. There was a significant correlation between annual Vibrio cases and maximum SST from 1992 to 2017 (r = 0.46, P = 0.018). Our model captured observed seasonal variation in shellfish-associated Vp in most years, but underestimated the 2015 Vp outbreak. CONCLUSIONS: Vibrio incidence has been increasing concurrently with increasing SST in BC during 2008-2015. The 2015 Vp outbreak was not fully explained by climatic factors and may in part have been associated with other factors. Vp subtyping would be useful in the future to understand the combined effects of SST changes and strain emergence.

Projected local rain events due to climate change and the impacts on waterborne diseases in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.

BACKGROUND: Climate change is increasing the number and intensity of extreme weather events in many parts of the world. Precipitation extremes have been linked to both outbreaks and sporadic cases of waterborne illness. We have previously shown a link between heavy rain and turbidity to population-level risk of sporadic cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis in a major Canadian urban population. The risk increased with 30 or more dry days in the 60 days preceding the week of extreme rain. The goal of this study was to investigate the change in cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis risk due to climate change, primarily change in extreme precipitation. METHODS: Cases of cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis were extracted from a reportable disease system (1997-2009). We used distributed lag non-linear Poisson regression models and projections of the exposure-outcome relationship to estimate future illness (2020-2099). The climate projections are derived from twelve statistically downscaled regional climate models. Relative Concentration Pathway 8.5 was used to project precipitation derived from daily gridded weather observation data (~ 6 × 10 km resolution) covering the central of three adjacent watersheds serving metropolitan Vancouver for the 2020s, 2040s, 2060s and 2080s. RESULTS: Precipitation is predicted to steadily increase in these watersheds during the wet season (Oct. -Mar.) and decrease in other parts of the year up through the 2080s. More weeks with extreme rain (>90th percentile) are expected. These weeks are predicted to increase the annual rates of cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis by approximately 16% by the 2080s corresponding to an increase of 55-136 additional cases per year depending upon the climate model used. The predicted increase in the number of waterborne illness cases are during the wet months. The range in future projections compared to historical monthly case counts typically differed by 10-20% across climate models but the direction of change was consistent for all models. DISCUSSION: If new water filtration measures had not been implemented in our study area in 2010-2015, the risk of cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis would have been expected to increase with climate change, particularly precipitation changes. In addition to the predicted increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events, the frequency and length of wet and dry spells could also affect the risk of waterborne diseases as we observed in the historical period. These findings add to the growing evidence regarding the need to prepare water systems to manage and become resilient to climate change-related health risks.

Evaluation of Agricultural Interventions on Human and Poultry-Related Salmonella Enteritidis in British Columbia.

A collaborative investigation between public health and animal health led to numerous interventions along the food chain in response to an outbreak of human salmonellosis and increased incidence of Salmonella Enteritidis (SE) among poultry. Incidence of both human and chicken SE decreased substantially in 2012 and 2013 following these interventions. We used time series analysis to assess the impact of three interventions: vaccination of broiler breeder flocks, separation in the hatchery of breeder eggs, and an industry order to stop farm-gate sales of ungraded broiler hatching eggs. Results show a Granger causal association between human SE incidence and SE incidence in chickens 8 months earlier. Among the interventions, separation of breeder flocks showed a consistent and statistically significant association with declining SE incidence in chickens. Our results did not show consistent declines in chicken SE following breeder flock vaccination (live or inactivated vaccine). None of the interventions had statistically significant impacts on human SE incidence. Our results are consistent with a positive effect of certain interventions and also reveal where additional data are needed for a more comprehensive evaluation. Multiple interventions throughout the food chain are best practices when dealing with enteric pathogens; collecting data on the timing and intensity of these interventions allow proper evaluation of their independent and combined effects. Finally, we identify considerations for others interested in undertaking similar evaluations. Ongoing collaborative work between public health and animal health is required to refine strategies for SE control in British Columbia.

Associations between extreme precipitation and acute gastro-intestinal illness due to cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis in an urban Canadian drinking water system (1997-2009).

Drinking water related infections are expected to increase in the future due to climate change. Understanding the current links between these infections and environmental factors is vital to understand and reduce the future burden of illness. We investigated the relationship between weekly reported cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis (n = 7,422), extreme precipitation (>90th percentile), drinking water turbidity, and preceding dry periods in a drinking water system located in greater Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada (1997-2009) using distributed lag non-linear Poisson regression models adjusted for seasonality, secular trend, and the effect of holidays on reporting. We found a significant increase in cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis 4-6 weeks after extreme precipitation. The effect was greater following a dry period. Similarly, extreme precipitation led to significantly increased turbidity only after prolonged dry periods. Our results suggest that the risk of cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis increases with extreme precipitation, and that the effects are more pronounced after a prolonged dry period. Given that extreme precipitation events are expected to increase with climate change, it is important to further understand the risks from these events, develop planning tools, and build resilience to these future risks.

Trends in incidence, mortality, and survival for kidney cancer in Canada, 1986-2007.

PURPOSE: Kidney cancer is one of the fastest rising cancers worldwide. We aimed to examine the trends in incidence, mortality, and survival for this cancer in Canada. METHODS: Incidence data for kidney cancer for 1986-2010 were from the Canadian Cancer Registry and the National Cancer Incidence Reporting System. These data were only available up to 2007 for the province of Quebec and consequently for the same year nationally, for Canada. Mortality data for 1986-2009 were from the Canadian Vital Statistics Death Database. Changes in age-standardized rates were analyzed by Joinpoint regression. Incidence rates were projected to 2025 using a Nordpred age-period-cohort model. Five-year relative survival ratios (RSR) were analyzed for 2004-2008 and earlier periods. RESULTS: Between 1986 and 2007, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) per 100,000 rose from 13.4 to 17.9 in males and 7.7 to 10.3 in females. Annual increases in ASIR were greatest for age groups <65 years (males) and ≥65 years (females). The ASIRs increased significantly over time in both sexes for renal cell carcinoma (RCC) but not for other kidney cancer types. RCC rates are projected to increase until at least 2025. Mortality rates decreased only slightly in each sex since 1986 (0.4%/year in males; 0.8%/year in females). The 5-year RSR for kidney cancer was 68% but differed largely by morphology and age, and has increased slightly over time. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence rate of kidney cancer in Canada has risen since at least 1986, led largely by RCC. Increasing detection of incidental tumors, and growing obesity and hypertension rates are possible factors associated with this increase. Greater prevention of modifiable risk factors for kidney cancer is needed.

Visible minority status and occupation were associated with increased COVID-19 infection in Greater Vancouver British Columbia between June and November 2020: an ecological study.

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted health disparities, especially among specific population groups. This study examines the spatial relationship between the proportion of visible minorities (VM), occupation types and COVID-19 infection in the Greater Vancouver region of British Columbia, Canada. Methods: Provincial COVID-19 case data between June 24, 2020, and November 7, 2020, were aggregated by census dissemination area and linked with sociodemographic data from the Canadian 2016 census. Bayesian spatial Poisson regression models were used to examine the association between proportion of visible minorities, occupation types and COVID-19 infection. Models were adjusted for COVID-19 testing rates and other sociodemographic factors. Relative risk (RR) and 95% Credible Intervals (95% CrI) were calculated. Results: We found an inverse relationship between the proportion of the Chinese population and risk of COVID-19 infection (RR = 0.98 95% CrI = 0.96, 0.99), whereas an increased risk was observed for the proportions of the South Asian group (RR = 1.10, 95% CrI = 1.08, 1.12), and Other Visible Minority group (RR = 1.06, 95% CrI = 1.04, 1.08). Similarly, a higher proportion of frontline workers (RR = 1.05, 95% CrI = 1.04, 1.07) was associated with higher infection risk compared to non-frontline. Conclusion: Despite adjustments for testing, housing, occupation, and other social economic status variables, there is still a substantial association between the proportion of visible minorities, occupation types, and the risk of acquiring COVID-19 infection in British Columbia. This ecological analysis highlights the existing disparities in the burden of diseases among different visible minority populations and occupation types.

Discontinuation of medication treatment for opioid use disorder after a successful course: The discontinuation phase of the CTN-0100 (RDD) trial.

INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND: Buprenorphine, and extended-release naltrexone, are effective in decreasing opioid use, morbidity and mortality. The available evidence suggests that these medications should be used for long term treatment; however, patients often ask how long they need to be on medication, and whether it would be safe to discontinue. There are sparse data to guide us. The CTN-0100 trial will address this gap in our knowledge by studying participants who have decided to discontinue buprenorphine and extended-release naltrexone for OUD. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: The trial is a multicenter, randomized, non-blinded study. Participants are stable adult volunteers, on sublingual buprenorphine, extended-release buprenorphine, or extended-release naltrexone, expressing an interest in discontinuing medication. Participants on buprenorphine must be stable for at least 1 year and participants on extended-release naltrexone must be stable for at least 6 months. Participants are engaged in the study for up to 96 weeks, including a flexible taper period, and are then transitioned to follow-up within the trial. All participants are randomly assigned to the study Medical Management (MM) or to MM plus Connections (CHESS health) digital smartphone application aimed at recovery and abstinence (MMD). Sublingual Buprenorphine participants are also randomized (2 × 2 design) to a taper using either sublingual or extended-release buprenorphine. DISCUSSION/CONCLUSION: It is hoped that this trial will provide a rich source of data on management of patients discontinuing medication for opioid use disorder (MOUD) to inform future research and practice. The trial will shed light on which strategies are most likely to lead to long-term success (absence of relapse), and what participant characteristics distinguish those who can safely discontinue MOUD from those who remain at risk of relapse should they discontinue. CLINICALTRIALS: gov Identifier: NCT04464980.

Forest Disturbance and Disease: Exploring the Effects of Tree Harvesting Area on Cryptococcus gattii sensu lato Infection Risk, Vancouver Island, Canada, 1998-2014.

BACKGROUND: The disturbance of colonized trees and soil, such as through forestry activities, has been proposed to disperse soil- and tree-inhabiting fungal pathogens. Cryptococcus gattii sensu lato is one such pathogen that was detected on Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada, beginning in 1999 and caused human and animal illness. OBJECTIVES: Our aim was to determine if C. gattii s.l. human case incidence on Vancouver Island was correlated with the intensity of landscape-level tree harvesting occurring near human settlement areas. METHODS: We created buffers around human settlement areas with radii increments of 2.5km, from 2.5 to 20km, and summed the area of annual tree harvests occurring within each buffer zone. We then performed Spearman rank-order correlation to measure the association between case incidence and annual tree harvest intensity at each radius from 1998 through 2014. RESULTS: The incidence of C. gattii was positively correlated with tree harvesting intensity only at distances of 7.5km (r=0.66, p=0.004) and 10km (r=0.64, p=0.005) from human settlement areas. As annual tree harvesting area increased between 1999 and 2003, so did annual C. gattii incidence in humans, before both plateaued around 2002 and decreased after 2007. DISCUSSION: Our findings suggest that tree harvesting plays a role in the spread of C. gattii on Vancouver Island. This may be due to tree cutting or soil disturbance facilitating the aerosolization of spores to increase infection risk. This research also illustrates the contribution that geographic information systems can make to public health research on environmental disturbance and disease outbreaks. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP12396.

The Impact of Mask Mandates on Face Mask Use During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Longitudinal Survey Study.

BACKGROUND: Face mask use has been associated with declines in COVID-19 incidence rates worldwide. A handful of studies have examined the factors associated with face mask use in North America during the COVID-19 pandemic; however, much less is known about the patterns of face mask use and the impact of mask mandates during this time. This information could have important policy implications, now and in the event of future pandemics. OBJECTIVE: To address existing knowledge gaps, we assessed face mask usage patterns among British Columbia COVID-19 Population Mixing Patterns (BC-Mix) survey respondents and evaluated the impact of the provincial mask mandate on these usage patterns. METHODS: Between September 2020 and July 2022, adult British Columbia residents completed the web-based BC-Mix survey, answering questions on the circumstances surrounding face mask use or lack thereof, movement patterns, and COVID-19-related beliefs. Trends in face mask use over time were assessed, and associated factors were evaluated using multivariable logistic regression. A stratified analysis was done to examine effect modification by the provincial mask mandate. RESULTS: Of the 44,301 respondents, 81.9% reported wearing face masks during the 23-month period. In-store and public transit mask mandates supported monthly face mask usage rates of approximately 80%, which was further bolstered up to 92% with the introduction of the provincial mask mandate. Face mask users mostly visited retail locations (51.8%) and travelled alone by car (49.6%), whereas nonusers mostly traveled by car with others (35.2%) to their destinations-most commonly parks (45.7%). Nonusers of face masks were much more likely to be male than female, especially in retail locations and restaurants, bars, and cafés. In a multivariable logistic regression model adjusted for possible confounders, factors associated with face mask use included age, ethnicity, health region, mode of travel, destination, and time period. The odds of face mask use were 3.68 times greater when the provincial mask mandate was in effect than when it was not (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 3.68, 95% CI 3.33-4.05). The impact of the mask mandate was greatest in restaurants, bars, or cafés (mandate: aOR 7.35, 95% CI 4.23-12.78 vs no mandate: aOR 2.81, 95% CI 1.50-5.26) and in retail locations (mandate: aOR 19.94, 95% CI 14.86-26.77 vs no mandate: aOR 7.71, 95% CI 5.68-10.46). CONCLUSIONS: Study findings provide added insight into the dynamics of face mask use during the COVID-19 pandemic. Mask mandates supported increased and sustained high face mask usage rates during the first 2 years of the pandemic, having the greatest impact in indoor public locations with limited opportunity for physical distancing targeted by these mandates. These findings highlight the utility of mask mandates in supporting high face mask usage rates during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Health-related quality of life and vulnerability among people with myelodysplastic syndromes: a US national study.

Health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and vulnerability are variably affected in patients with myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) and other cytopenic states; however, the heterogeneity of these diseases has limited our understanding of these domains. The National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute-sponsored MDS Natural History Study is a prospective cohort enrolling patients undergoing workup for suspected MDS in the setting of cytopenias. Untreated patients undergo bone marrow assessment with central histopathology review for assignment as MDS, MDS/myeloproliferative neoplasm (MPN), idiopathic cytopenia of undetermined significance (ICUS), acute myeloid leukemia (AML) with <30% blasts, or "At-Risk." HRQoL data are collected at enrollment, including the MDS-specific Quality of Life in Myelodysplasia Scale (QUALMS). Vulnerability is assessed with the Vulnerable Elders Survey. Baseline HRQoL scores from 449 patients with MDS, MDS/MPN, AML <30%, ICUS or At-Risk were similar among diagnoses. In MDS, HRQoL was worse for vulnerable participants (eg, mean Patent-Reported Outcomes Management Information Systems [PROMIS] Fatigue of 56.0 vs 49.5; P < .001) and those with worse prognosis (eg, mean Euroqol-5 Dimension-5 Level [EQ-5D-5L] of 73.4, 72.7, and 64.1 for low, intermediate, and high-risk disease; P = .005). Among vulnerable MDS participants, most had difficulty with prolonged physical activity (88%), such as walking a quarter mile (74%). These data suggest that cytopenias leading to MDS evaluation are associated with similar HRQoL, regardless of eventual diagnosis, but with worse HRQoL among the vulnerable. Among those with MDS, lower-risk disease was associated with better HRQoL, but the relationship was lost among the vulnerable, showing for the first time that vulnerability trumps disease risk in affecting HRQoL. This study is registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as NCT02775383.

Examining the impacts of a syphilis awareness campaign among gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (gbMSM) in British Columbia, Canada.

OBJECTIVES: Syphilis rates have increased in BC and disproportionately affect gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (gbMSM). A social marketing campaign (Syphistory) ran from January to September 2017 with the primary goal of increasing syphilis knowledge and a secondary goal of increasing syphilis screening among gbMSM in BC. METHODS: We used pre- and post-campaign surveys to assess changes in syphilis knowledge from a convenience sample of clients attending STI clinics using one-sided t-tests. We used online Piwik metrics to examine the campaign reach, and provincial testing data to examine trends in syphilis screening. We used data from the Engage Study to examine factors associated with campaign awareness and associations with syphilis testing. RESULTS: Of the 2155 visitors to the Syphistory website with known geography, 79.4% were from BC. Moreover, STI clinic participants who saw the campaign demonstrated a greater knowledge of syphilis (9.7/12, 80.8%) than those who did not see the campaign (mean 8.9/12, 74%) (p < 0.001). Provincial syphilis testing rates were 8764 and 9749 in the 12 months before and after the campaign; however, we did not find an overall trend in testing before versus after the campaign (p = 0.147). Among Engage participants, 12.7% reported seeing the campaign and we found an association between campaign exposure and recent syphilis testing (aOR = 2.73; 95% CI = 1.51, 4.93). CONCLUSION: gbMSM who saw the campaign were more likely to report being tested for syphilis in the previous 6 months. STI clinic attendees who reported seeing the campaign also had higher syphilis knowledge compared to those who did not.

RéSUMé: OBJECTIFS: Les taux de syphilis ont augmenté en Colombie-Britannique et affectent de manière disproportionnée les hommes gais, bisexuels et autres hommes ayant des relations sexuelles avec des hommes (gbHARSAH). Une campagne de marketing social (Syphistory) a été mené de janvier à septembre 2017 avec pour objectif principal d'informer sur la syphilis et pour objectif secondaire d'augmenter le dépistage de la syphilis chez les gbHARSAH en Colombie-Britannique. MéTHODES: Nous avons réalisé deux sondages, l'un avant et l'autre après la campagne, sur un échantillon de convenance constitué de patients fréquentant des cliniques ITS, pour évaluer les changements dans les connaissances sur la syphilis à l'aide de tests t unilatéraux. Nous avons utilisé les mesures Piwik en ligne pour examiner la portée de la campagne et les données provinciales sur les tests pour examiner les tendances quant au dépistage de la syphilis. Nous avons utilisé les données de l'étude Engage à Vancouver, pour identifier les facteurs associés à la sensibilisation lors de la campagne et les associations avec le dépistage de la syphilis. RéSULTATS: Sur les 2 155 visiteurs du site Web Syphistory dont la position géographique était connue, 79,4 % provenaient de la Colombie-Britannique. De plus, les participants aux cliniques ITS ayant vu la campagne ont démontré une meilleure connaissance de la syphilis (9,7/12, 80,8 %) par rapport à ceux n'ayant pas vu la campagne (moyenne 8,9/12, 74 %) (p<0,001). Les taux provinciaux de dépistage de la syphilis étaient de 8 764 et 9 749 au cours des 12 mois précédant et suivant la campagne; cependant, nous n'avons pas trouvé de tendance globale à la hausse des dépistages suite à la campagne (p=0,147). Parmi les participants Engage, 12,7 % ont déclaré avoir vu la campagne en ligne et nous avons trouvé une association entre l'exposition à la campagne et le dépistage récent de la syphilis (RCa=2,73; IC à 95 %=1,51, 4,93). CONCLUSION: Les gbHARSAH qui ont vu la campagne étaient plus susceptibles de déclarer avoir été testés pour la syphilis au cours des six derniers mois. Les participants aux cliniques ITS qui ont déclaré avoir vu la campagne avaient également une meilleure connaissance de la syphilis que ceux qui ne l'ont pas vue.

Discordant pathologic diagnoses of myelodysplastic neoplasms and their implications for registries and therapies.

Myelodysplastic neoplasms (MDS) are a collection of hematopoietic disorders with widely variable prognoses and treatment options. Accurate pathologic diagnoses present challenges because of interobserver variability in interpreting morphology and quantifying dysplasia. We compared local clinical site diagnoses with central, adjudicated review from 918 participants enrolled in the ongoing National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute National MDS Natural History Study, a prospective observational cohort study of participants with suspected MDS or MDS/myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs). Locally, 264 (29%) were diagnosed as having MDS, 15 (2%) MDS/MPN overlap, 62 (7%) idiopathic cytopenia of undetermined significance (ICUS), 0 (0%) acute myeloid leukemia (AML) with <30% blasts, and 577 (63%) as other. Approximately one-third of cases were reclassified after central review, with 266 (29%) diagnosed as MDS, 45 (5%) MDS/MPN overlap, 49 (5%) ICUS, 15 (2%) AML with <30%, and 543 (59%) as other. Site miscoding errors accounted for more than half (53%) of the local misdiagnoses, leaving a true misdiagnosis rate of 15% overall, 21% for MDS. Therapies were reported in 37% of patients, including 43% of patients with MDS, 49% of patients with MDS/MPN, and 86% of patients with AML with <30% blasts. Treatment rates were lower (25%) in cases with true discordance in diagnosis compared with those for whom local and central diagnoses agreed (40%), and receipt of inappropriate therapy occurred in 7% of misdiagnosed cases. Discordant diagnoses were frequent, which has implications for the accuracy of study-related and national registries and can lead to inappropriate therapy. This trial was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT05074550.

Esophageal cancer in Canada: trends according to morphology and anatomical location.

BACKGROUND: Esophageal adenocarcinoma has one of the fastest rising incidence rates and one of the lowest survival rates of any cancer type in the Western world. However, in many countries, trends in esophageal cancer differ according to tumour morphology and anatomical location. In Canada, incidence and survival trends for esophageal cancer subtypes are poorly known. METHODS: Cancer incidence and mortality rates were obtained from the Canadian Cancer Registry, the National Cancer Incidence Reporting System and the Canadian Vital Statistics Death databases for the period from 1986 to 2006. Observed trends (annual per cent change) and five-year relative survival ratios were estimated separately for esophageal adenocarcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma, and according to location (upper, middle, or lower one-third of the esophagus). Incidence rates were projected up to the year 2026. RESULTS: Annual age-standardized incidence rates for esophageal cancer in 2004 to 2006 were 6.1 and 1.7 per 100,000 for males and females, respectively. Esophageal adenocarcinoma incidence rose by 3.9% (males) and 3.6% (females) per year for the period 1986 to 2006, with the steepest increase in the lower one-third of the esophagus (4.8% and 5.0% per year among males and females, respectively). In contrast, squamous cell carcinoma incidence declined by 3.3% (males) and 3.2% (females) per year since the early 1990s. The five-year relative survival ratio for esophageal cancer was 13% between 2004 and 2006, approximately a 3% increase since the period from 1992 to 1994. Projected incidence rates showed increases of 40% to 50% for esophageal adenocarcinoma and decreases of 30% for squamous cell carcinoma by 2026. DISCUSSION: Although esophageal cancer is rare in Canada, the incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma has doubled in the past 20 years, which may reflect the increasing prevalence of obesity and gastroesophageal reflux disease. Declines in squamous cell carcinoma may be the result of the decreases in the prevalence of smoking in Canada. Given the low survival rates and the potential for further increases in incidence, esophageal adenocarcinoma warrants close attention.