Towards malaria elimination: analysis of travel history and case forecasting using the SARIMA model in Limpopo Province.

Despite various efforts and policy implementation aimed at controlling and eliminating malaria, imported malaria remains a major factor posing challenges in places that have made progress in malaria elimination. The persistence of malaria in Limpopo Province has largely been attributed to imported cases, thus reducing the pace of achieving the malaria-free target by 2025. Data from the Limpopo Malaria Surveillance Database System (2010-2020) was analyzed, and a seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model was developed to forecast malaria incidence based on the incidence data's temporal autocorrelation. The study found that out of 57,288 people that were tested, 51,819 (90.5%) cases were local while 5469 (9.5%) cases were imported. Mozambique (44.9%), Zimbabwe (35.7%), and Ethiopia (8.5%) were the highest contributors of imported cases. The month of January recorded the highest incidence of cases while the least was in August. Analysis of the yearly figures showed an increasing trend and seasonal variation of recorded malaria cases. The SARIMA (3,1,1) X (3,1,0) [12] model used in predicting expected malaria case incidences for three consecutive years showed a decline in malaria incidences. The study demonstrated that imported malaria accounted for 9.5% of all cases. There is a need to re-focus on health education campaigns on malaria prevention methods and strengthening of indoor residual spray programs. Bodies collaborating toward malaria elimination in the Southern Africa region need to ensure a practical delivery of the objectives.

Malaria diagnostic methods with the elimination goal in view.

Malaria control measures have been in use for years but have not completely curbed the spread of infection. Ultimately, global elimination is the goal. A major playmaker in the various approaches to reaching the goal is the issue of proper diagnosis. Various diagnostic techniques were adopted in different regions and geographical locations over the decades, and these have invariably produced diverse outcomes. In this review, we looked at the various approaches used in malaria diagnostics with a focus on methods favorably used during pre-elimination and elimination phases as well as in endemic regions. Microscopy, rapid diagnostic testing (RDT), loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP), and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) are common methods applied depending on prevailing factors, each with its strengths and limitations. As the drive toward the elimination goal intensifies, the search for ideal, simple, fast, and reliable point-of-care diagnostic tools is needed more than ever before to be used in conjunction with a functional surveillance system supported by the ideal vaccine.

Molecular detection of sub-microscopic infections and Plasmodium falciparum histidine-rich protein-2 and 3 gene deletions in pre-elimination settings of South Africa.

South Africa's efforts toward eliminating malaria have positioned the country in the pre-elimination stage. Imported and sub-microscopic cases still contribute to the persistence of malaria in regions of low transmission as identified in this study where diagnostics is built largely on the use of Rapid Diagnostic Test (RDT). However, the presence of Pfhrp2/3 gene deletion is known to interfere with the accuracy of diagnosis with the use of RDT. Malaria elimination and detection of Pfhrp2/3 gene deletion in the pre-elimination setting requires accurate molecular surveillance. With the core objective of this study being the determination of the presence sub-microscopic malaria cases and deleted Pfhrp2/3 gene markers, a total of 354 samples were collected from five districts of KwaZulu Natal, South Africa. These samples were prepared for molecular analysis using primers and PCR conditions specific for amplification of 18S rRNA and msp-1gene. Positive amplicons were analysed for the presence of Pfhrp2/3 and flanking genes, along with Sanger sequencing and phylogenetic studies. Out of 354 samples collected 339 were tested negative with PfHRP2 based RDTs. Of these Pfhrp2 and Pfhrp3 gene deletions were confirmed in 94.7% (18/19) and 100% (19/19) respectively. High migration rate (75%) among the study participants was noted and phylogenetic analysis of sequenced isolates showed close evolutionary relatedness with India, United Kingdom, Iran, and Myanmar and China isolates. Molecular-based test is recommended as an essential surveillance tool for malaria management programs as the target focuses on elimination.

Whole Genome Sequencing Contributions and Challenges in Disease Reduction Focused on Malaria.

Malaria elimination remains an important goal that requires the adoption of sophisticated science and management strategies in the era of the COVID-19 pandemic. The advent of next generation sequencing (NGS) is making whole genome sequencing (WGS) a standard today in the field of life sciences, as PCR genotyping and targeted sequencing provide insufficient information compared to the whole genome. Thus, adapting WGS approaches to malaria parasites is pertinent to studying the epidemiology of the disease, as different regions are at different phases in their malaria elimination agenda. Therefore, this review highlights the applications of WGS in disease management, challenges of WGS in controlling malaria parasites, and in furtherance, provides the roles of WGS in pursuit of malaria reduction and elimination. WGS has invaluable impacts in malaria research and has helped countries to reach elimination phase rapidly by providing required information needed to thwart transmission, pathology, and drug resistance. However, to eliminate malaria in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), with high malaria transmission, we recommend that WGS machines should be readily available and affordable in the region.

A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Malaria Test Positivity Outcomes and Programme Interventions in Low Transmission Settings in Southern Africa, 2000-2021.

Malaria is one of the most significant causes of mortality and morbidity globally, especially in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries. It harmfully disturbs the public's health and the economic growth of many developing countries. Despite the massive effect of malaria transmission, the overall pooled proportion of malaria positivity rate in Southern Africa is still elusive. Therefore, the objective of this systematic review and meta-analysis is to pool estimates of the incidence of the malaria positivity rate, which is the first of its kind in South African countries. A literature search is performed to identify all published articles reporting the incidence of malaria positivity in Southern Africa. Out of the 3359 articles identified, 17 studies meet the inclusion for systematic review and meta-analysis. In addition, because substantial heterogeneity is expected due to the studies being extracted from the universal population, random-effects meta-analyses are carried out to pool the incidence of the malaria positivity rate from diverse diagnostic methods. The result reveals that between-study variability is high (τ2 = 0.003; heterogeneity I2 = 99.91% with heterogeneity chi-square χ2 = 18,143.95, degree of freedom = 16 and a p-value < 0.0001) with the overall random pooled incidence of 10% (95%CI: 8−13%, I2 = 99.91%) in the malaria positivity rate. According to the diagnostic method called pooled incidence estimate, the rapid diagnostic test (RDT) is the leading diagnostic method (17%, 95%CI: 11−24%, I2 = 99.95%), followed by RDT and qPCR and RDT and loop mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP), respectively, found to be (3%, 95%CI: 2−3%, I2 = 0%) and (2%, 95%CI: 1−3%, I2 = 97.94%).Findings of the present study suggest high malaria positive incidence in the region. This implies that malaria control and elimination programmes towards malaria elimination could be negatively impacted and cause delays in actualising malaria elimination set dates. Further studies consisting of larger samples and continuous evaluation of malaria control programmes are recommended.

Chloroquine and Sulfadoxine-Pyrimethamine Resistance in Sub-Saharan Africa-A Review.

Malaria is a great concern for global health and accounts for a large amount of morbidity and mortality, particularly in Africa, with sub-Saharan Africa carrying the greatest burden of the disease. Malaria control tools such as insecticide-treated bed nets, indoor residual spraying, and antimalarial drugs have been relatively successful in reducing the burden of malaria; however, sub-Saharan African countries encounter great challenges, the greatest being antimalarial drug resistance. Chloroquine (CQ) was the first-line drug in the 20th century until it was replaced by sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) as a consequence of resistance. The extensive use of these antimalarials intensified the spread of resistance throughout sub-Saharan Africa, thus resulting in a loss of efficacy for the treatment of malaria. SP was replaced by artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) after the emergence of resistance toward SP; however, the use of ACTs is now threatened by the emergence of resistant parasites. The decreased selective pressure on CQ and SP allowed for the reintroduction of sensitivity toward those antimalarials in regions of sub-Saharan Africa where they were not the primary drug for treatment. Therefore, the emergence and spread of antimalarial drug resistance should be tracked to prevent further spread of the resistant parasites, and the re-emergence of sensitivity should be monitored to detect the possible reappearance of sensitivity in sub-Saharan Africa.