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WHO/UNICEF estimates for HPV vaccination coverage from 2010 to 2019 are analyzed against the backdrop of the 90% coverage target for HPV vaccination by 2030 set in the recently approved global strategy for cervical cancer elimination as a public health problem. As of June 2020, 107 (55%) of the 194 WHO Member States have introduced HPV vaccination. The Americas and Europe are by far the WHO regions with the most introductions, 85% and 77% of their countries having already introduced respectively. A record number of introductions was observed in 2019, most of which in low- and middle- income countries (LMIC) where access has been limited. Programs had an average performance coverage of around 67% for the first dose and 53% for the final dose of HPV. LMICs performed on average better than high- income countries for the first dose, but worse for the last dose due to higher dropout. Only 5 (6%) countries achieved coverages with the final dose of more than 90%, 22 countries (21%) achieved coverages of 75% or higher while 35 (40%) had a final dose coverage of 50% or less. When expressed as world population coverage (i.e., weighted by population size), global coverage of the final HPV dose for 2019 is estimated at 15%. There is a long way to go to meet the 2030 elimination target of 90%. In the post-COVID era attention should be paid to maintain the pace of introductions, specially ensuring the most populous countries introduce, and further improving program performance globally.
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COVID-19 , Infecciones por Papillomavirus , Vacunas contra Papillomavirus , Neoplasias del Cuello Uterino , Europa (Continente) , Femenino , Humanos , Programas de Inmunización , Infecciones por Papillomavirus/prevención & control , SARS-CoV-2 , Naciones Unidas , Neoplasias del Cuello Uterino/prevención & control , Vacunación , Cobertura de Vacunación , Organización Mundial de la SaludRESUMEN
Since December 2019, over 1.5 million SARS-CoV-2-related fatalities have been recorded in the World Health Organization European Region - 90.2% in people ≥ 60 years. We calculated lives saved in this age group by COVID-19 vaccination in 33 countries from December 2020 to November 2021, using weekly reported deaths and vaccination coverage. We estimated that vaccination averted 469,186 deaths (51% of 911,302 expected deaths; sensitivity range: 129,851-733,744; 23-62%). Impact by country ranged 6-93%, largest when implementation was early.
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Vacunas contra la COVID-19 , COVID-19 , Humanos , SARS-CoV-2 , Vacunación , Organización Mundial de la SaludRESUMEN
Rubella is the leading vaccine-preventable cause of birth defects. Rubella typically manifests as a mild febrile rash illness; however, infection during pregnancy, particularly during the first trimester, can result in miscarriage, fetal death, or a constellation of malformations known as congenital rubella syndrome (CRS), commonly including one or more visual, auditory, or cardiac defects (1). In 2012, the Regional Committee of the World Health Organization (WHO) Western Pacific Region (WPR)* committed to accelerate rubella control, and in 2017, resolved that all countries or areas (countries) in WPR should aim for rubella elimination as soon as possible (2,3). WPR countries are capitalizing on measles elimination activities, using a combined measles and rubella vaccine, case-based surveillance for febrile rash illness, and integrated diagnostic testing for measles and rubella. This report summarizes progress toward rubella elimination and CRS prevention in WPR during 2000-2019. Coverage with a first dose of rubella-containing vaccine (RCV1) increased from 11% in 2000 to 96% in 2019. During 1970-2019, approximately 84 million persons were vaccinated through 62 supplementary immunization activities (SIAs) conducted in 27 countries. Reported rubella incidence increased from 35.5 to 71.3 cases per million population among reporting countries during 2000-2008, decreased to 2.1 in 2017, and then increased to 18.4 in 2019 as a result of outbreaks in China and Japan. Strong sustainable immunization programs, closing of existing immunity gaps, and maintenance of high-quality surveillance to respond rapidly to and contain outbreaks are needed in every WPR country to achieve rubella elimination in the region.
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Erradicación de la Enfermedad , Vacuna contra la Rubéola/administración & dosificación , Rubéola (Sarampión Alemán)/epidemiología , Rubéola (Sarampión Alemán)/prevención & control , Adolescente , Adulto , Asia/epidemiología , Australasia/epidemiología , Niño , Preescolar , Femenino , Humanos , Lactante , Masculino , Embarazo , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
Hepatitis B vaccine (HepB), which has been available since 1982, provides lifelong protection against hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection and the associated 20%-30% increased lifetime risk for developing cirrhosis or hepatocellular carcinoma among >95% of vaccine recipients (1). Before HepB introduction into national childhood immunization schedules, the estimated hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) prevalence in the World Health Organization (WHO) Western Pacific Region (WPR)* was >8% in 1990 (2). In 2005, the WPR was the first WHO region to establish a hepatitis B control goal, with an initial target of reducing HBsAg prevalence to <2% among children aged 5 years by 2012. In 2013, the WPR set more stringent control targets to achieve by 2017, including reducing HBsAg prevalence to <1% in children aged 5 years and increasing national coverage with both timely HepB birth dose (HepB-BD) (defined as administration within 24 hours of birth) and the third HepB dose (HepB3) to ≥95% (3). All WPR countries/areas endorsed the Regional Action Plan for Viral Hepatitis in the Western Pacific Region 2016-2020 in 2015 (4) and the Regional Framework for the Triple Elimination of Mother-to-Child Transmission of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), Hepatitis B and Syphilis in Asia and the Pacific 2018-2030 (triple elimination framework) in 2017 (5). These regional targets and strategies are aligned with program targets established by the WHO Global Health Sector Strategy on Viral Hepatitis 2016-2021 that aim to reduce HBsAg prevalence among children aged 5 years to ≤1% by 2020 and to ≤0.1% by 2030 (6). This report describes progress made to achieve hepatitis B control in the WPR and the steps taken to eliminate mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) of HBV during 2005-2017. During this period, regional timely HepB-BD and HepB3 coverage increased from 63% to 85% and from 76% to 93%, respectively. As of December 2017, 15 (42%) countries/areas achieved ≥95% timely HepB-BD coverage; 18 (50%) reached ≥95% HepB3 coverage; and 19 (53%) countries/areas as well as the region as a whole were verified to have achieved the regional and global target of <1% HBsAg prevalence among children aged 5 years. Continued implementation of proven vaccination strategies will be needed to make further progress toward WPR hepatitis B control targets. In addition to high HepB-BD and HepB3 coverage, enhanced implementation of complementary hepatitis B prevention services through the triple elimination framework, including routine HBsAg testing of pregnant women, timely administration of hepatitis B immunoglobulin to exposed newborns, and antiviral treatment of mothers with high viral loads, will be needed to achieve the global hepatitis B elimination target by 2030.
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Erradicación de la Enfermedad , Hepatitis B/epidemiología , Hepatitis B/prevención & control , Transmisión Vertical de Enfermedad Infecciosa/prevención & control , Preescolar , Femenino , Hepatitis B/transmisión , Antígenos de Superficie de la Hepatitis B , Vacunas contra Hepatitis B/administración & dosificación , Humanos , Esquemas de Inmunización , Lactante , Recién Nacido , Transmisión Vertical de Enfermedad Infecciosa/estadística & datos numéricos , Islas del Pacífico/epidemiología , Embarazo , Estudios Seroepidemiológicos , Encuestas y Cuestionarios , Cobertura de Vacunación/estadística & datos numéricosRESUMEN
In 2005, the Regional Committee for the World Health Organization (WHO) Western Pacific Region (WPR)* established a goal for measles elimination by 2012 (1). To achieve this goal, the 37 WPR countries and areas implemented the recommended strategies in the WPR Plan of Action for Measles Elimination (2) and the Field Guidelines for Measles Elimination (3). The strategies include 1) achieving and maintaining ≥95% coverage with 2 doses of measles-containing vaccine (MCV) through routine immunization services and supplementary immunization activities (SIAs), when required; 2) conducting high-quality case-based measles surveillance, including timely and accurate testing of specimens to confirm or discard suspected cases and detect measles virus for genotyping and molecular analysis; and 3) establishing and maintaining measles outbreak preparedness to ensure rapid response and appropriate case management. This report updates the previous report (4) and describes progress toward measles elimination in WPR during 2013-2017. During 2013-2016, estimated regional coverage with the first MCV dose (MCV1) decreased from 97% to 96%, and coverage with the routine second MCV dose (MCV2) increased from 91% to 93%. Eighteen (50%) countries achieved ≥95% MCV1 coverage in 2016. Seven (39%) of 18 nationwide SIAs during 2013-2017 reported achieving ≥95% administrative coverage. After a record low of 5.9 cases per million population in 2012, measles incidence increased during 2013-2016 to a high of 68.9 in 2014, because of outbreaks in the Philippines and Vietnam, as well as increased incidence in China, and then declined to 5.2 in 2017. To achieve measles elimination in WPR, additional measures are needed to strengthen immunization programs to achieve high population immunity, maintain high-quality surveillance for rapid case detection and confirmation, and ensure outbreak preparedness and prompt response to contain outbreaks.
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Erradicación de la Enfermedad , Sarampión/epidemiología , Sarampión/prevención & control , Vigilancia de la Población , Adolescente , Asia Sudoriental/epidemiología , Australia/epidemiología , Niño , Preescolar , Brotes de Enfermedades/prevención & control , Asia Oriental/epidemiología , Genotipo , Humanos , Programas de Inmunización , Esquemas de Inmunización , Incidencia , Lactante , Sarampión/virología , Vacuna Antisarampión/administración & dosificación , Virus del Sarampión/genética , Islas del Pacífico/epidemiología , Cobertura de Vacunación/estadística & datos numéricosRESUMEN
Background: In 2015, a large nationwide measles outbreak occurred in Mongolia, with very high incidence in the capital city of Ulaanbaatar and among young adults. Methods: We conducted an outbreak investigation including a matched case-control study of risk factors for laboratory-confirmed measles among young adults living in Ulaanbaatar. Young adults with laboratory-confirmed measles, living in the capital city of Ulaanbaatar, were matched with 2-3 neighborhood controls. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate adjusted matched odds ratios (aMORs) for risk factors, with 95% confidence intervals. Results: During March 1-September 30, 2015, 20 077 suspected measles cases were reported; 14 010 cases were confirmed. Independent risk factors for measles included being unvaccinated (adjusted matched odds ratio [aMOR] 2.0, P < .01), being a high school graduate without college education (aMOR 2.6, P < .01), remaining in Ulaanbaatar during the outbreak (aMOR 2.5, P < .01), exposure to an inpatient healthcare facility (aMOR 4.5 P < .01), and being born outside of Ulaanbaatar (aMOR 1.8, P = .02). Conclusions: This large, nationwide outbreak shortly after verification of elimination had high incidence among young adults, particularly those born outside the national capital. In addition, findings indicated that nosocomial transmission within health facilities helped amplify the outbreak.
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Brotes de Enfermedades , Virus del Sarampión/inmunología , Sarampión/epidemiología , Adolescente , Adulto , Factores de Edad , Estudios de Casos y Controles , Niño , Preescolar , Femenino , Historia del Siglo XXI , Humanos , Incidencia , Lactante , Recién Nacido , Masculino , Sarampión/historia , Sarampión/prevención & control , Sarampión/virología , Vacuna Antisarampión/inmunología , Mongolia/epidemiología , Oportunidad Relativa , Vigilancia de la Población , Factores de Riesgo , Estaciones del Año , Vacunación/estadística & datos numéricos , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
Measles is a highly transmissible infectious disease that causes serious illness and death worldwide. Efforts to eliminate measles through achieving high immunization coverage, well-performing surveillance systems, and rapid and effective outbreak response mechanisms while strategically engaging and strengthening health systems have been termed a diagonal approach. In March 2015, a large nationwide measles epidemic occurred in Mongolia, 1 year after verification of measles elimination in this country. A multidisciplinary team conducted an outbreak investigation that included a broad health system assessment, organized around the Global Health Security Agenda framework of Prevent-Detect-Respond, to provide recommendations for evidence-based interventions to interrupt the epidemic and strengthen the overall health system to prevent future outbreaks of measles and other epidemic-prone infectious threats. This investigation demonstrated the value of evaluating elements of the broader health system in investigating measles outbreaks and the need for using a diagonal approach to achieving sustainable measles elimination.
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Brotes de Enfermedades , Sarampión/epidemiología , Sarampión/prevención & control , Vigilancia en Salud Pública , Erradicación de la Enfermedad/métodos , Urgencias Médicas , Historia del Siglo XXI , Humanos , Programas de Inmunización , Sarampión/diagnóstico , Sarampión/historia , Vacuna Antisarampión , Mongolia/epidemiología , Evaluación de Resultado en la Atención de Salud , Vigilancia en Salud Pública/métodos , Estaciones del Año , VacunaciónRESUMEN
PROBLEM: The emergence of Zika virus has challenged outbreak surveillance systems in many at-risk, low-resource countries. As the virus has been linked with Guillain-Barré syndrome, routine data on the incidence of acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) may provide a useful early warning system for the emergence of Zika virus. APPROACH: We documented all Zika virus outbreaks and cases in 21 Pacific Islands and territories for the years 2007 to 2015. We extracted data from the Global Polio Eradication Initiative database on the reported and expected annual incidence of AFP in children younger thanâ¯15 years. Using a Poisson probability test, we tested the significance of unexpected increases in AFP in years correlating with Zika virus emergence. Data were analysed separately for each Pacific Island country and territory. LOCAL SETTING: In most Pacific Island countries, early warning surveillance for acute public health threats such as Zika virus is hampered by poor health infrastructure, insufficient human resources and geographical isolation. RELEVANT CHANGES: Only one example was found (Solomon Islands in 2015) of a significant increase in reported AFP cases correlating with Zika virus emergence. LESSONS LEARNT: We found no conclusive evidence that routinely reported AFP incidence data in children were useful for detecting emergence of Zika virus in this setting. More evidence may be needed from adult populations, who are more likely to be affected by Guillain-Barré syndrome. Reporting of AFP may be deficient in regions certified as polio-free.
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Síndrome de Guillain-Barré/epidemiología , Parálisis/epidemiología , Vigilancia de la Población/métodos , Infección por el Virus Zika/epidemiología , Adolescente , Niño , Preescolar , Femenino , Humanos , Incidencia , Lactante , Recién Nacido , Masculino , Islas del Pacífico/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
Mongolia experienced a nationwide measles outbreak during 1 March 2015-31 December 2016, with 49,077 cases reported to the WHO; many were among vaccinated young adults, suggesting a possible role of vaccine failure. Advanced laboratory methods, coupled with detailed epidemiological investigations, can help classify cases as vaccine failure, failure to vaccinate, or both. In this report, we conducted a study of cases to identify risk factors for breakthrough infection for a subset of laboratory-confirmed measles cases. Of the 193 cases analyzed, only 19 (9.8%) reported measles vaccination history, and 170 (88%) were uncertain. Measles-specific IgG avidity testing classified 120 (62%) cases as low IgG avidity, indicating no prior exposure to measles. Ten of these cases with low IgG avidity had a history of measles vaccination, indicating primary vaccine failure. Overall, sixty cases (31%) had high IgG avidity, indicating breakthrough infection after prior exposure to measles antigen through vaccination or natural infection, but the IgG avidity results were highly age-dependent. This study found that among young children aged 9 months-5 years, breakthrough infection was rare (4/82, 5%); however, among young adults aged 15-25 years, breakthrough infection due to secondary vaccine failure (SVF) occurred on a large scale during this outbreak, accounting for the majority of cases (42/69 cases, 61%). The study found that large-scale secondary vaccine failure occurred in Mongolia, which highlights the potential for sustained outbreaks in post-elimination settings due to "hidden" cohorts of young adults who may have experienced waning immunity. This phenomenon may have implications for the sustainability of measles elimination in countries that remain vulnerable to the importation of the virus from areas where it is still endemic. Until global measles elimination is achieved, enhanced surveillance and preparedness for future outbreaks in post- or peri-elimination countries may be required.
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BACKGROUND: By March, 2023, 54 countries, areas, and territories (hereafter CAT) in the WHO European Region had reported more than 2·2 million COVID-19-related deaths to the WHO Regional Office for Europe. Here, we estimated how many lives were directly saved by vaccinating adults in the WHO European Region from December, 2020, to March, 2023. METHODS: In this retrospective surveillance study, we estimated the number of lives directly saved by age group, vaccine dose, and circulating variant-of-concern (VOC) period, regionally and nationally, using weekly data on COVID-19 mortality and infection, COVID-19 vaccination uptake, and SARS-CoV-2 virus characterisations by lineage downloaded from The European Surveillance System on June 11, 2023, as well as vaccine effectiveness data from the literature. We included data for six age groups (25-49 years, 50-59 years, ≥60 years, 60-69 years, 70-79 years, and ≥80 years). To be included in the analysis, CAT needed to have reported both COVID-19 vaccination and mortality data for at least one of the four older age groups. Only CAT that reported weekly data for both COVID-19 vaccination and mortality by age group for 90% of study weeks or more in the full study period were included. We calculated the percentage reduction in the number of expected and reported deaths. FINDINGS: Between December, 2020, and March, 2023, in 34 of 54 CAT included in the analysis, COVID-19 vaccines reduced deaths by 59% overall (CAT range 17-82%), representing approximately 1·6 million lives saved (range 1·5-1·7 million) in those aged 25 years or older: 96% of lives saved were aged 60 years or older and 52% were aged 80 years or older; first boosters saved 51% of lives, and 60% were saved during the Omicron period. INTERPRETATION: Over nearly 2·5 years, most lives saved by COVID-19 vaccination were in older adults by first booster dose and during the Omicron period, reinforcing the importance of up-to-date vaccination among the most at-risk individuals. Further modelling work should evaluate indirect effects of vaccination and public health and social measures. FUNDING: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
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Rotavirus is the most common pathogen causing pediatric diarrhea and an important cause of morbidity and mortality in low- and middle-income countries. Previous evidence suggests that the introduction of rotavirus vaccines in national immunization schedules resulted in dramatic declines in disease burden but may also be changing the rotavirus genetic landscape and driving the emergence of new genotypes. We report genotype data of more than 16,000 rotavirus isolates from 40 countries participating in the Global Rotavirus Surveillance Network. Data from a convenience sample of children under five years of age hospitalized with acute watery diarrhea who tested positive for rotavirus were included. Country results were weighted by their estimated rotavirus disease burden to estimate regional genotype distributions. Globally, the most frequent genotypes identified after weighting were G1P[8] (31%), G1P[6] (8%) and G3P[8] (8%). Genotypes varied across WHO Regions and between countries that had and had not introduced rotavirus vaccine. G1P[8] was less frequent among African (36 vs 20%) and European (33 vs 8%) countries that had introduced rotavirus vaccines as compared to countries that had not introduced. Our results describe differences in the distribution of the most common rotavirus genotypes in children with diarrhea in low- and middle-income countries. G1P[8] was less frequent in countries that had introduced the rotavirus vaccine while different strains are emerging or re-emerging in different regions.
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INTRODUCTION: A strategic framework for 2021-2030 developed by the World Health Organization (WHO) Regional Office for the Western Pacific emphasizes the need for high-quality and integrated vaccine-preventable disease (VPD) surveillance. We conducted a literature review to document the barriers, enabling factors, and innovations for integrating surveillance functions for VPDs and other communicable diseases in Western Pacific Region (WPR) countries. METHODS: We searched published and gray literature on integrated VPD surveillance from 2000 to 2021. Articles in English, Spanish, or French were screened to identify those relating to VPD surveillance in a WPR country and not meeting defined exclusion criteria. We categorized articles using the 8 WHO surveillance support functions and abstracted data on the country; type of surveillance; and reported barriers, enabling factors, and best practices for integration. RESULTS: Of the 3,137 references screened, 87 met the eligibility criteria. Of the 8 surveillance support functions, the proportion of references that reported integration related to the laboratory was 56%, followed by workforce capacity (54%), governance (51%), data management and use (47%), field logistics and communication (47%), coordination (15%), program management (13%), and supervision (9%). Several references noted fragmented systems and a lack of coordination between units as barriers to integration, highlighting the importance of engagement across public health units and between the public and private sectors. The literature also indicated a need for interoperable information systems and revealed the use of promising new technologies for data reporting and laboratory testing. In some WPR countries, workforce capacity was strengthened at all administrative levels by the implementation of integrated trainings on data monitoring and use and on laboratory techniques applicable to multiple VPDs. CONCLUSION: This literature review supports integrating VPDs into broader communicable disease surveillance systems in WPR countries while ensuring that the minimal WHO-recommended standards for VPD surveillance are met.
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Enfermedades Prevenibles por Vacunación , Humanos , Enfermedades Prevenibles por Vacunación/epidemiología , Enfermedades Prevenibles por Vacunación/prevención & control , Organización Mundial de la SaludRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Countries in the World Health Organization (WHO) European Region differ in terms of the COVID-19 vaccine supply conditions. We evaluated the health and economic impact of different age-based vaccine prioritisation strategies across this demographically and socio-economically diverse region. METHODS: We fitted age-specific compartmental models to the reported daily COVID-19 mortality in 2020 to inform the immunity level before vaccine roll-out. Models capture country-specific differences in population structures, contact patterns, epidemic history, life expectancy, and GDP per capita.We examined four strategies that prioritise: all adults (V+), younger (20-59 year-olds) followed by older adults (60+) (V20), older followed by younger adults (V60), and the oldest adults (75+) (V75) followed by incrementally younger age groups. We explored four roll-out scenarios (R1-4) - the slowest scenario (R1) reached 30% coverage by December 2022 and the fastest (R4) 80% by December 2021. Five decision-making metrics were summarised over 2021-22: mortality, morbidity, and losses in comorbidity-adjusted life expectancy, comorbidity- and quality-adjusted life years, and human capital. Six vaccine profiles were tested - the highest performing vaccine has 95% efficacy against both infection and disease, and the lowest 50% against diseases and 0% against infection. FINDINGS: Of the 20 decision-making metrics and roll-out scenario combinations, the same optimal strategy applied to all countries in only one combination; V60 was more or similarly desirable than V75 in 19 combinations. Of the 38 countries with fitted models, 11-37 countries had variable optimal strategies by decision-making metrics or roll-out scenarios. There are greater benefits in prioritising older adults when roll-out is slow and when vaccine profiles are less favourable. INTERPRETATION: The optimal age-based vaccine prioritisation strategies were sensitive to country characteristics, decision-making metrics, and roll-out speeds. A prioritisation strategy involving more age-based stages (V75) does not necessarily lead to better health and economic outcomes than targeting broad age groups (V60). Countries expecting a slow vaccine roll-out may particularly benefit from prioritising older adults. FUNDING: World Health Organization, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the Medical Research Council (United Kingdom), the National Institute of Health Research (United Kingdom), the European Commission, the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (United Kingdom), Wellcome Trust.
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BACKGROUND: Countries in the World Health Organization (WHO) European Region differ in terms of the COVID-19 vaccine roll-out speed. We evaluated the health and economic impact of different age-based vaccine prioritisation strategies across this demographically and socio-economically diverse region. METHODS: We fitted country-specific age-stratified compartmental transmission models to reported COVID-19 mortality in the WHO European Region to inform the immunity level before vaccine roll-out. Building upon broad recommendations from the WHO Strategic Advisory Group of Experts on Immunisation (SAGE), we examined four strategies that prioritise: all adults (V+), younger (20-59 year-olds) followed by older adults (60+) (V20), older followed by younger adults (V60), and the oldest adults (75+) (V75) followed by incremental expansion to successively younger five-year age groups. We explored four roll-out scenarios based on projections or recent observations (R1-4) - the slowest scenario (R1) covers 30% of the total population by December 2022 and the fastest (R4) 80% by December 2021. Five decision-making metrics were summarised over 2021-22: mortality, morbidity, and losses in comorbidity-adjusted life expectancy (cLE), comorbidity- and quality-adjusted life years (cQALY), and the value of human capital (HC). Six sets of infection-blocking and disease-reducing vaccine efficacies were considered. FINDINGS: The optimal age-based vaccine prioritisation strategies were sensitive to country characteristics, decision-making metrics and roll-out speeds. Overall, V60 consistently performed better than or comparably to V75. There were greater benefits in prioritising older adults when roll-out is slow and when VE is low. Under faster roll-out, V+ was the most desirable option. INTERPRETATION: A prioritisation strategy involving more age-based stages (V75) does not necessarily lead to better health and economic outcomes than targeting broad age groups (V60). Countries expecting a slow vaccine roll-out may particularly benefit from prioritising older adults. FUNDING: World Health Organization, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the Medical Research Council (United Kingdom), the National Institute of Health Research (United Kingdom), the European Commission, the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (United Kingdom), Wellcome Trust. RESEARCH IN CONTEXT: Evidence before this study: We searched PubMed and medRxiv for articles published in English from inception to 9 Jun 2021, with the search terms: ("COVID-19" OR "SARS-CoV-2") AND ("priorit*) AND ("model*") AND ("vaccin*") and identified 66 studies on vaccine prioritization strategies. Of the 25 studies that compared two or more age-based prioritisation strategies, 12 found that targeting younger adults minimised infections while targeting older adults minimised mortality; an additional handful of studies found similar outcomes between different age-based prioritisation strategies where large outbreaks had already occurred. However, only two studies have explored age-based vaccine prioritisation using models calibrated to observed outbreaks in more than one country, and no study has explored the effectiveness of vaccine prioritisation strategies across settings with different population structures, contact patterns, and outbreak history.Added-value of this study: We evaluated various age-based vaccine prioritisation strategies for 38 countries in the WHO European Region using various health and economic outcomes for decision-making, by parameterising models using observed outbreak history, known epidemiologic and vaccine characteristics, and a range of realistic vaccine roll-out scenarios. We showed that while targeting older adults was generally advantageous, broadly targeting everyone above 60 years might perform better than or comparably to a more detailed strategy that targeted the oldest age group above 75 years followed by those in the next younger five-year age band. Rapid vaccine roll-out has only been observed in a small number of countries. If vaccine coverage can reach 80% by the end of 2021, prioritising older adults may not be optimal in terms of health and economic impact. Lower vaccine efficacy was associated with greater relative benefits only under relatively slow roll-out scenarios considered.Implication of all the available evidence: COVID-19 vaccine prioritization strategies that require more precise targeting of individuals of a specific and narrow age range may not necessarily lead to better outcomes compared to strategies that prioritise populations across broader age ranges. In the WHO European Region, prioritising all adults equally or younger adults first will only optimise health and economic impact when roll-out is rapid, which may raise between-country equity issues given the global demand for COVID-19 vaccines.
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INTRODUCTION: Current SARS-CoV-2 containment measures rely on controlling viral transmission. Effective prioritization can be determined by understanding SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analyses of the secondary attack rate (SAR) in household and healthcare settings. We also examined whether household transmission differed by symptom status of index case, adult and children, and relationship to index case. METHODS: We searched PubMed, medRxiv, and bioRxiv databases between January 1 and July 25, 2020. High-quality studies presenting original data for calculating point estimates and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were included. Random effects models were constructed to pool SAR in household and healthcare settings. Publication bias was assessed by funnel plots and Egger's meta-regression test. RESULTS: 43 studies met the inclusion criteria for household SAR, 18 for healthcare SAR, and 17 for other settings. The pooled household SAR was 18.1% (95% CI: 15.7%, 20.6%), with significant heterogeneity across studies ranging from 3.9% to 54.9%. SAR of symptomatic index cases was higher than asymptomatic cases (RR: 3.23; 95% CI: 1.46, 7.14). Adults showed higher susceptibility to infection than children (RR: 1.71; 95% CI: 1.35, 2.17). Spouses of index cases were more likely to be infected compared to other household contacts (RR: 2.39; 95% CI: 1.79, 3.19). In healthcare settings, SAR was estimated at 0.7% (95% CI: 0.4%, 1.0%). DISCUSSION: While aggressive contact tracing strategies may be appropriate early in an outbreak, as it progresses, measures should transition to account for setting-specific transmission risk. Quarantine may need to cover entire communities while tracing shifts to identifying transmission hotspots and vulnerable populations. Where possible, confirmed cases should be isolated away from the household.
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Betacoronavirus/fisiología , Infecciones por Coronavirus/transmisión , Neumonía Viral/transmisión , Adulto , COVID-19 , Niño , Infecciones por Coronavirus/epidemiología , Infecciones por Coronavirus/prevención & control , Susceptibilidad a Enfermedades , Familia , Personal de Salud , Humanos , Pandemias/prevención & control , Neumonía Viral/epidemiología , Neumonía Viral/prevención & control , Cuarentena , Factores de Riesgo , SARS-CoV-2RESUMEN
PRINCIPLES: Neisseria gonorrhoeae (NG) resistant to ciprofloxacin (CR) was documented for the first time in Geneva in 2002 and increased from 7% that year to 47% in 2005. We describe NG cases during this period and compare characteristics of CR and ciprofloxacin susceptible (CS) cases. METHOD: Geneva microbiological laboratories identified NG cases. Antimicrobial susceptibility testing (AST) was performed on a sample of reported cases. The attending physicians completed questionnaires on demographic and epidemiological characteristics. Risk exposures were assessed by comparing CR and CS cases using logistic regression. RESULTS: 238 NG cases were reported. Of 91 on which AST was performed, 23 (25%) were CR; 91% of these were male vs 87% of CS patients. Men having sex with men (MSM) represented 38% of CR cases compared with 31% of CS cases (p>0.05). Among CR cases 65% were Swiss compared with 56% of CS cases. Median age was 35 years for both. Casual sexual contacts were reported for 88% of CR cases and 72% of CS cases (p>0.05). The difference between CR and CS cases in terms of sexual activity outside Switzerland (50% and 19% respectively) remained significant after adjusting for sexual preference and nationality (OR: 7.0, CI 95: 1.99-24.6). CONCLUSION: Although CR infection was more common among Swiss MSM, only sexual activity outside Switzerland was independently associated with CR. Physicians should request AST before treatment and reconsider first-line use of ciprofloxacin. Surveillance of gonococcal antimicrobial resistance is essential in monitoring epidemiologic trends and updating recommendations on first-line treatment.
Asunto(s)
Antibacterianos/farmacología , Ciprofloxacina/farmacología , Farmacorresistencia Bacteriana , Gonorrea/tratamiento farmacológico , Neisseria gonorrhoeae , Adulto , Antibacterianos/uso terapéutico , Ciprofloxacina/uso terapéutico , Femenino , Gonorrea/epidemiología , Humanos , Masculino , Pruebas de Sensibilidad Microbiana , Factores de Riesgo , Conducta Sexual , Suiza/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
Cataracts are a common condition and represent a frequent cause of visual disability. Nevertheless, data regarding the incidence of cataracts and the progression of and loss of vision due to cataracts is scarce. In this study, hospital discharge abstract data was evaluated to estimate the frequency and type of hospitalisations for cataract surgery that occurred in the Puglia region in the years 2000-2002. The results of this study confirm that cataract surgery accounts for a relevant amount of regional healthcare system costs. In fact, every year, over 25,000 lens surgery procedures, most of which age-related, are performed in the Puglia region. Approximately 90% of such procedures involve cataract surgery; age-specific hospitalisation rates show very high rates in the > 50 year old population. Only 25% of total cataract extractions were performed as a day-surgery procedure and the mean length of hospital stay was found to be 2.5 days. This confirms that inappropriate hospitalisations, with respect to both type and duration, do occur. Cataract surgery is performed in over 30 hospitals in Puglia; the availability of health facilities in the region, therefore, seems to be satisfactory. In fact, on average, in the three-year period, only 7.5% of cases underwent the procedure outside the Puglia region.