The Impact of Primary Care Clinic and Family Physician Continuity on Patient Health Outcomes: A Retrospective Analysis From Alberta, Canada.

PURPOSE: Continuity of care is broadly associated with better patient health outcomes. The relative contributions of continuity with an individual physician and with a practice, however, have not generally been distinguished. This retrospective observational study examined the impact of continuity of care for patients seen at their main clinic but by different family physicians. METHODS: We analyzed linked health administrative data from 2015-2018 from Alberta, Canada to explore the association of physician and clinic continuity with rates of emergency department (ED) visits and hospitalizations across varying levels of patient complexity. Physician continuity was calculated using the known provider of care index and clinic continuity with an analogous measure. We developed zero-inflated negative binomial models to assess the association of each with all-cause ED visits and hospitalizations. RESULTS: High physician continuity was associated with lower ED use across all levels of patient complexity and with fewer hospitalizations for highly complex patients. Broadly, no (0%) clinic continuity was associated with increased use and complete (100%) clinic continuity with decreased use, with the largest effect seen for the most complex patients. Levels of clinic continuity between 1% and 50% were generally associated with slightly higher use, and levels of 51% to 99% with slightly lower use. CONCLUSIONS: The best health care outcomes (measured by ED visits and hospitalizations) are associated with consistently seeing one's own primary family physician or seeing a clinic partner when that physician is unavailable. The effect of partial clinic continuity appears complex and requires additional research. These results provide some reassurance for part-time and shared practices, and guidance for primary care workforce policy makers.

Geospatial patterns of comorbidity prevalence among people with osteoarthritis in Alberta Canada.

BACKGROUND: Knowledge of geospatial pattern in comorbidities prevalence is critical to an understanding of the local health needs among people with osteoarthritis (OA). It provides valuable information for targeting optimal OA treatment and management at the local level. However, there is, at present, limited evidence about the geospatial pattern of comorbidity prevalence in Alberta, Canada. METHODS: Five administrative health datasets were linked to identify OA cases and comorbidities using validated case definitions. We explored the geospatial pattern in comorbidity prevalence at two standard geographic areas levels defined by the Alberta Health Services: descriptive analysis at rural-urban continuum level; spatial analysis (global Moran's I, hot spot analysis, cluster and outlier analysis) at the local geographic area (LGA) level. We compared area-level indicators in comorbidities hotspots to those in the rest of Alberta (non-hotspots). RESULTS: Among 359,638 OA cases in 2013, approximately 60% of people resided in Metro and Urban areas, compared to 2% in Rural Remote areas. All comorbidity groups exhibited statistically significant spatial autocorrelation (hypertension: Moran's I index 0.24, z score 4.61). Comorbidity hotspots, except depression, were located primarily in Rural and Rural Remote areas. Depression was more prevalent in Metro (Edmonton-Abbottsfield: 194 cases per 1000 population, 95%CI 192-195) and Urban LGAs (Lethbridge-North: 169, 95%CI 168-171) compared to Rural areas (Fox Creek: 65, 95%CI 63-68). Comorbidities hotspots included a higher percentage of First Nations or Inuit people. People with OA living in hotspots had lower socioeconomic status and less access to care compared to non-hotspots. CONCLUSIONS: The findings highlight notable rural-urban disparities in comorbidities prevalence among people with OA in Alberta, Canada. Our study provides valuable evidence for policy and decision makers to design programs that ensure patients with OA receive optimal health management tailored to their local needs and a reduction in current OA health disparities.

Patient-Physician Relational Continuity and Health System Utilization among Patients in Alberta.

In Alberta, no standardized processes exist to identify patients with chronic diseases (CDs) who do not have a family physician. This study examined the association between relational continuity (continuity of care) and healthcare utilization patterns in this population. Relational continuity was assessed using health administrative data to calculate a Usual Provider Continuity (UPC) Index. The majority of patients with no or a low UPC Index were male, did not have CD and were healthy or non-users of healthcare. When grouped by UPC Index, regression modelling revealed that emergency department visits and unplanned hospitalization declined with increased continuity of care. Advanced state of disease(s) and location of residence increased the likelihood of utilization of these services in the low- and moderate-continuity groups.

Differences in caesarean rates across women's socio-economic status by diverse obstetric indications: Cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: The existing inconsistent association between the caesarean rate and maternal socio-economic status (SES) may be the result of a failure to examine the association across indications for caesarean. This study examined the variation in caesarean rates by maternal SES across diverse obstetric-indications. METHODS: Data on demographics, education, insurance status, medical-conditions, and obstetric characteristics needed to classify deliveries according to Robson's 10 obstetric-groups were extracted from the 2015 US birth certificate data (n = 3 988 733). Multivariable log-binomial regression was used to analyse the data adjusting for confounders. RESULTS: The caesarean rate was 34.1% for women with high SES and 26.8% for those with low SES. After adjustment for confounders, the rate was similar between women with graduate degrees and those who did not complete high school (relative risk (RR) 1.0, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.9, 1.1). However, different rates of caesareans across SES were observed for particular obstetric-indications. Notably, women with graduate education compared to those who did not complete high school were more likely to have a caesarean (RR 3.0, 95% CI 2.9, 3.1) for a low-risk condition (group 1: nulliparous women with single, cephalic, ≥37 gestational weeks, and spontaneous labour). Women with private insurance were more likely to have a caesarean in almost all obstetric groups, compared to those without private insurance or Medicaid. CONCLUSION: Examining the overall caesarean rate obscures the relationship between SES and the use of caesarean for particular obstetric-indications. The unequal utilisation of caesareans across SES highlights overuse and potential underuse of the caesareans among American women.

Variation in Maternal Co-morbidities and Obstetric Interventions across Area-Level Socio-economic Status: A Cross-Sectional Study.

BACKGROUND: Multiple studies indicate a significant association between area-level socio-economic status (SES) and adverse maternal health outcomes; however, the impact of area-level SES on maternal co-morbidities and obstetric interventions has not been examined. OBJECTIVE: To examine the variation in maternal co-morbidities and obstetric interventions across area-level SES. METHODS: This study used data from the Discharge Abstract Database that comprised birth data in Alberta between 2005-2007 (n = 120 285). Co-morbidities and obstetric interventions were identified using validated case-definitions. Material deprivation index was obtained for each dissemination area through linkage of hospitalisation and census data. Multilevel logistic regression was used to analyse the data adjusting for potential confounding variables. RESULTS: The prevalence of any co-morbidity varied across area-level SES. Drug abuse odds ratio (OR) 2.5 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.8, 3.5), pre-existing diabetes OR 1.7 (95% CI 1.1, 2.6), and prolonged hospital stay OR 1.5 (95% CI 1.4, 1.6) were significantly more likely to occur in the most deprived areas compared to the least deprived areas. In contrast, caesarean delivery OR 0.9 (95% CI 0.8, 0.9) was less likely to occur in the most deprived areas compared to the least deprived areas. Area-level deprivation explained area-level variance of drug abuse, HIV, and other mental diseases only. CONCLUSION: Many co-morbidities and obstetric interventions vary at the area-level, but only some are associated with area-level SES, and few of them vary due to the area-level SES. This indicates that other area-level factors, in addition to area-level SES, need to be considered when investigating maternal health and use of health interventions.

Suppression of glomerulonephritis in lupus-prone NZB × NZW mice by RN486, a selective inhibitor of Bruton's tyrosine kinase.

OBJECTIVE: Bruton's tyrosine kinase (BTK) plays a critical role in B cell development and function. We recently described a selective BTK inhibitor, RN486, that blocks B cell receptor (BCR) and Fcγ receptor signaling and is efficacious in animal models of arthritis. The aim of this study was to examine the potential efficacy of BTK in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), using an NZB × NZW mouse model of spontaneous SLE. METHODS: Mice received RN486 or its vehicle (administered in chow) at a final concentration of 30 mg/kg for 8 weeks, starting at 32 weeks of age. RESULTS: The administration of RN486 completely stopped disease progression, as determined by histologic and functional analyses of glomerular nephritis. The efficacy was associated with striking inhibition of B cell activation, as demonstrated by a significant reduction in CD69 expression in response to BCR crosslinking. RN486 markedly reduced the secretion of IgG anti-double-stranded DNA (anti-dsDNA) secretion, as determined by enzyme-linked immunosorbent and enzyme-linked immunospot assays. Flow cytometric analysis demonstrated depletion of CD138(high) B220(low) plasma cells in the spleen. RN486 inhibited secretion of IgG anti-dsDNA but not IgM anti-dsDNA, suggesting that pharmacologic blockade of BTK resembles the reported transgenic expression of low levels of endogenous BTK in B cells. In addition, RN486 may also impact the effector function of autoantibodies, as evidenced by a significant reduction in immune complex-mediated activation of human monocytes in vitro and down-regulation of the expression of macrophage-related and interferon-inducible genes in both the kidneys and spleens of treated mice. CONCLUSION: Collectively, our data suggest that BTK inhibitors may simultaneously target autoantibody-producing and effector cells in SLE, thus constituting a promising therapeutic alternative for this disease.

Safety and immunogenicity of modified vaccinia Ankara in hematopoietic stem cell transplant recipients: a randomized, controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Modified vaccinia Ankara (MVA-BN, IMVAMUNE) is emerging as a primary immunogen and as a delivery system to treat or prevent a wide range of diseases. Defining the safety and immunogenicity of MVA-BN in key populations is therefore important. METHODS: We performed a dose-escalation study of MVA-BN administered subcutaneously in 2 doses, one on day 0 and another on day 28. Twenty-four hematopoietic stem cell transplant recipients were enrolled sequentially into the study, and vaccine or placebo was administered under a randomized, double-blind allocation. Ten subjects received vaccine containing 10(7) median tissue culture infective doses (TCID50) of MVA-BN, 10 subjects received vaccine containing 10(8) TCID50 of MVA-BN, and 4 subjects received placebo. RESULTS: MVA-BN was generally well tolerated at both doses. No vaccine-related serious adverse events were identified. Transient local reactogenicity was more frequently seen at the higher dose. Neutralizing antibodies (NAb) to Vaccinia virus (VACV) were elicited by both doses of MVA-BN and were greater for the higher dose. Median peak anti-VACV NAb titers were 1:49 in the lower-dose group and 1:118 in the higher-dose group. T-cell immune responses to VACV were detected by an interferon γ enzyme-linked immunosorbent spot assay and were higher in the higher-dose group. CONCLUSIONS: MVA-BN is safe, well tolerated, and immunogenic in HSCT recipients. These data support the use of 10(8) TCID50 of MVA-BN in this population. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT00565929.

First-in-human evaluation of the safety and immunogenicity of a recombinant adenovirus serotype 26 HIV-1 Env vaccine (IPCAVD 001).

BACKGROUND: We report the first-in-human safety and immunogenicity assessment of a prototype Ad26 vector-based human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) vaccine in humans. METHODS: Sixty Ad26-seronegative, healthy, HIV-uninfected subjects were enrolled in a randomized, double-blinded, placebo-controlled, dose-escalation phase 1 study. Five groups of 12 subjects received 10(9)-10(11) vp of the Ad26-EnvA vaccine (N = 10/group) or placebo (N = 2/group) at weeks 0 and 24 or weeks 0, 4, and 24. Safety and immunogenicity were assessed. RESULTS: Self-limited reactogenicity was observed after the initial immunization at the highest (10(11) vp) dose. No product-related SAEs were observed. All subjects who received the Ad26-EnvA vaccine developed Ad26 NAb titers, EnvA-specific enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA) titers, and EnvA-specific enzyme-linked immunospot assays (ELISPOT) responses. These responses persisted at week 52. At week 28 in the 10(9), 10(10), 10(11) vp 3-dose and the 10(10) and 5 × 10(10) vp 2-dose groups, geometric mean EnvA ELISA titers were 6113, 12 470, 8545, 3470, and 9655 and mean EnvA ELISPOT responses were 397, 178, 736, 196, and 1311 SFC/10(6) peripheral blood mononuclear cells, respectively. CONCLUSION: This Ad26 vectored vaccine was generally safe and immunogenic at all doses tested. Reactogenicity was minimal with doses of 5 × 10(10) vp or less. Ad26 is a promising new vaccine vector for HIV-1. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT00618605.

A validation of ground ambulance pre-hospital times modeled using geographic information systems.

BACKGROUND: Evaluating geographic access to health services often requires determining the patient travel time to a specified service. For urgent care, many research studies have modeled patient pre-hospital time by ground emergency medical services (EMS) using geographic information systems (GIS). The purpose of this study was to determine if the modeling assumptions proposed through prior United States (US) studies are valid in a non-US context, and to use the resulting information to provide revised recommendations for modeling travel time using GIS in the absence of actual EMS trip data. METHODS: The study sample contained all emergency adult patient trips within the Calgary area for 2006. Each record included four components of pre-hospital time (activation, response, on-scene and transport interval). The actual activation and on-scene intervals were compared with those used in published models. The transport interval was calculated within GIS using the Network Analyst extension of Esri ArcGIS 10.0 and the response interval was derived using previously established methods. These GIS derived transport and response intervals were compared with the actual times using descriptive methods. We used the information acquired through the analysis of the EMS trip data to create an updated model that could be used to estimate travel time in the absence of actual EMS trip records. RESULTS: There were 29,765 complete EMS records for scene locations inside the city and 529 outside. The actual median on-scene intervals were longer than the average previously reported by 7-8 minutes. Actual EMS pre-hospital times across our study area were significantly higher than the estimated times modeled using GIS and the original travel time assumptions. Our updated model, although still underestimating the total pre-hospital time, more accurately represents the true pre-hospital time in our study area. CONCLUSIONS: The widespread use of generalized EMS pre-hospital time assumptions based on US data may not be appropriate in a non-US context. The preference for researchers should be to use actual EMS trip records from the proposed research study area. In the absence of EMS trip data researchers should determine which modeling assumptions more accurately reflect the EMS protocols across their study area.

Rural-Urban Differences in Non-Local Primary Care Utilization among People with Osteoarthritis: The Role of Area-Level Factors.

The utilization of non-local primary care physicians (PCP) is a key primary care indicator identified by Alberta Health to support evidence-based healthcare planning. This study aims to identify area-level factors that are significantly associated with non-local PCP utilization and to examine if these associations vary between rural and urban areas. We examined rural-urban differences in the associations between non-local PCP utilization and area-level factors using multivariate linear regression and geographically weighted regression (GWR) models. Global Moran's I and Gi* hot spot analyses were applied to identify spatial autocorrelation and hot spots/cold spots of non-local PCP utilization. We observed significant rural-urban differences in the non-local PCP utilization. Both GWR and multivariate linear regression model identified two significant factors (median travel time and percentage of low-income families) with non-local PCP utilization in both rural and urban areas. Discontinuity of care was significantly associated with non-local PCP in the southwest, while the percentage of people having university degree was significant in the north of Alberta. This research will help identify gaps in the utilization of local primary care and provide evidence for health care planning by targeting policies at associated factors to reduce gaps in OA primary care provision.

Rural-Urban Disparities in Realized Spatial Access to General Practitioners, Orthopedic Surgeons, and Physiotherapists among People with Osteoarthritis in Alberta, Canada.

Rural Canadians have high health care needs due to high prevalence of osteoarthritis (OA) but lack access to care. Examining realized access to three types of providers (general practitioners (GPs), orthopedic surgeons (Ortho), and physiotherapists (PTs)) simultaneously helps identify gaps in access to needed OA care, inform accessibility assessment, and support health care resource allocation. Travel time from a patient's postal code to the physician's postal code was calculated using origin-destination network analysis. We applied descriptive statistics to summarize differences in travel time, hotspot analysis to explore geospatial patterns, and distance decay function to examine the travel pattern of health care utilization by urbanicity. The median travel time in Alberta was 11.6 min (IQR = 4.3-25.7) to GPs, 28.9 (IQR = 14.8-65.0) to Ortho, and 33.7 (IQR = 23.1-47.3) to PTs. We observed significant rural-urban disparities in realized access to GPs (2.9 and IQR = 0.0-92.1 in rural remote areas vs. 12.6 and IQR = 6.4-21.0 in metropolitan areas), Ortho (233.3 and IQR = 171.3-363.7 in rural remote areas vs. 21.3 and IQR = 14.0-29.3 in metropolitan areas), and PTs (62.4 and IQR = 0.0-232.1 in rural remote areas vs. 32.1 and IQR = 25.2-39.9 in metropolitan areas). We identified hotspots of realized access to all three types of providers in rural remote areas, where patients with OA tend to travel longer for health care. This study may provide insight on the choice of catchment size and the distance decay pattern of health care utilization for further studies on spatial accessibility.

Assessment of anxiety during pregnancy: are existing multiple anxiety scales suitable and comparable in measuring anxiety during pregnancy?

BACKGROUND: This study examined the performance of multiple anxiety scales in measuring anxiety during pregnancy, an important issue due to the possible effect of pregnancy-related symptoms on the measurement of anxiety. METHODS: Secondary data on anxiety, measured by the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory-State (STAI-S) 20-item and six-item scales, the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale-Anxiety Subscale (EPDS-3A) and the Symptoms Checklist-90-Anxiety Subscale (SCL-90), were obtained from two pregnancy cohort studies. Both cohorts completed the EPDS-3A, while 3341 women completed the STAI-S and 2187 women completed the SCL-90, with 231 women participating in both cohorts. Data were analyzed using confirmatory factor analysis and Spearman correlation. RESULTS: The STAI-6 had adequate model fit, while the STAI-20 and the SCL-90 had inadequate model fit. Model fitness for the EPDS-3A could not be assessed due to its low number of items. The correlation between the STAI-20 and STAI-6 was excellent (r = 0.93). The correlation of EPDS-3A with other anxiety scales was low to moderate (r (STAI-20) = 0.57, r (STAI-6) = 0.53 and r (SCL-90) = 0.44). The correlation of SCL-90 with both STAI-20 and STAI-6 was low (r < 0.50). CONCLUSION: Findings indicate that these scales do not measure anxiety as a single dimension and that these scales are incomparable and may conceptualize anxiety differently.

Data harmonization and data pooling from cohort studies: a practical approach for data management.

Data pooling from pre-existing datasets can be useful to increase study sample size and statistical power in order to answer a research question. However, individual datasets may contain variables that measure the same construct differently, posing challenges for data pooling. Variable harmonization, an approach that can generate comparable datasets from heterogeneous sources, can address this issue in some circumstances. As an illustrative example, this paper describes the data harmonization strategies that helped generate comparable datasets across two Canadian pregnancy cohort studies: All Our Families; and the Alberta Pregnancy Outcomes and Nutrition. Variables were harmonized considering multiple features across the datasets: the construct measured; question asked/response options; the measurement scale used; the frequency of measurement; timing of measurement, and the data structure. Completely matching, partially matching, and completely un-matching variables across the datasets were determined based on these features. Variables that were an exact match were pooled as is. Partially matching variables were harmonized or processed under a common format across the datasets considering the frequency of measurement, the timing of measurement, the measurement scale used, and response options. Variables that were completely unmatching could not be harmonized into a single variable. The variable harmonization strategies that were used to generate comparable cohort datasets for data pooling are applicable to other data sources. Future studies may employ or evaluate these strategies, which permit researchers to answer novel research questions in a statistically efficient, timely, and cost-efficient manner that could not be achieved using a single data source.

Geographic Variation in the Prevalence of Rheumatoid Arthritis in Alberta, Canada.

OBJECTIVES: Timely access to rheumatologists remains a challenge in Alberta, a Canadian province with vast rural areas, whereas rheumatologists are primarily clustered in metro areas. To address the goal of timely and equitable access to rheumatoid arthritis (RA) care, health planners require information at the regional and local level to determine the RA prevalence and the associated health care needs. METHODS: Using Alberta Health administrative databases, we identified RA-prevalent cases (April 1, 2015-March 31, 2016) on the basis of a validated case definition. Age- and sex-standardized prevalence rates per 1000 population members and the standardized rates ratio (SRR) were calculated. We applied Global Moran's I and Gi* hotspot analysis using three different weight matrices to explore the geospatial pattern of RA prevalence in Alberta. RESULTS: Among 38 350 RA cases (68% female; n = 26 236), the prevalence rate was 11.81 cases per 1000 population members (95% confidence interval [CI] 11.80-11.81) after age and sex standardization. Approximately 60% of RA cases resided in metro (Calgary and Edmonton) and moderate metro areas. The highest rate was observed in rural areas (14.46; 95% CI 14.45-14.47; SRR 1.28), compared with the lowest in metro areas (10.69; 95% CI 10.68-10.69; SRR 0.82). The RA prevalence across local geographic areas ranged from 4.7 to 30.6 cases. The Global Moran's I index was 0.15 using three different matrices (z-score 3.96-4.24). We identified 10 hotspots in the south and north rural areas and 18 cold spots in metro and moderate metro Calgary. CONCLUSION: The findings highlight notable rural-urban variation in RA prevalence in Alberta. Our findings can inform strategies aimed at reducing geographic disparities by targeting areas with high health care needs.

Neighbourhood socioeconomic status modifies the association between anxiety and depression during pregnancy and preterm birth: a Community-based Canadian cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: This study examined the association of anxiety alone, depression alone and the presence of both anxiety and depression with preterm birth (PTB) and further examined whether neighbourhood socioeconomic status (SES) modified this association. DESIGN: Cohort study using individual-level data from two community-based prospective pregnancy cohort studies (All Our Families; AOF) and Alberta Pregnancy Outcomes and Nutrition (APrON) and neighbourhood SES data from the 2011 Canadian census. SETTING: Calgary, Alberta, Canada. PARTICIPANTS: Overall, 5538 pregnant women who were <27 weeks of gestation and >15 years old were enrolled in the cohort studies between 2008 and 2012. 3341 women participated in the AOF study and 2187 women participated in the APrON study, with 231 women participated in both studies. Women who participated in both studies were only counted once. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: PTB was defined as delivery prior to 37 weeks of gestation. Depression was defined as an Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) score of ≥13, anxiety was defined as an EPDS-anxiety subscale score of ≥6, and the presence of both anxiety and depression was defined as meeting both anxiety and depression definitions. RESULTS: Overall, 7.3% of women delivered preterm infants. The presence of both anxiety and depression, but neither of these conditions alone, was significantly associated with PTB (OR 1.6, 95% CI 1.1 to 2.3) and had significant interaction with neighbourhood deprivation (p=0.004). The predicted probability of PTB for women with both anxiety and depression was 10.0%, which increased to 15.7% if they lived in the most deprived neighbourhoods and decreased to 1.4% if they lived in the least deprived neighbourhoods. CONCLUSIONS: Effects of anxiety and depression on risk of PTB differ depending on where women live. This understanding may guide the identification of women at increased risk for PTB and allocation of resources for early identification and management of anxiety and depression.

Is there an association between spatial access to parks/green space and childhood overweight/obesity in Calgary, Canada?

BACKGROUND: The recent increase in childhood obesity is expected to add significantly to the prevalence of chronic diseases. We used multivariate multilevel analysis to examine associations between parks/green space and childhood overweight/obesity across communities in Calgary, Canada, a city characterized by intensified urban sprawl and high car use. METHODS: Body Mass Index was calculated from measured height and weight data obtained from 6,772 children (mean age = 4.95 years) attending public health clinics for pre-school vaccinations. Each child's home postal code was geocoded using ESRI ArcGIS 9.2. We examined four measures of spatial access to parks/green space (based on Geographic Information Systems): 1) the number of parks/green spaces per 10,000 residents, 2) the area of parks/green space as a proportion of the total area within a community, 3) average distance to a park/green space, and 4) the proportion of parks/green space service area as a proportion of the total area within a community. Analyses were adjusted for dissemination area median family income (as a proxy for an individual child's family income) community-level education, and community-level proportion of visible minorities. RESULTS: In general, parks/green space at the community level was not associated with overweight/obesity in Calgary, with the exception of a marginally significant effect whereby a moderate number of parks/green spaces per 10,000 residents was associated with lower odds of overweight/obesity. This effect was non-significant in adjusted analyses. CONCLUSION: Our null findings may reflect the popularity of car travel in Calgary, Canada and suggest that the role built environment characteristics play in explaining health outcomes may differ depending on the type of urban environment being studied.

Does neighborhood socioeconomic status predict the risk of preterm birth? A community-based Canadian cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: This study developed and internally validated a predictive model for preterm birth (PTB) to examine the ability of neighbourhood socioeconomic status (SES) to predict PTB. DESIGN: Cohort study using individual-level data from two community-based prospective pregnancy cohort studies (All Our Families (AOF) and Alberta Pregnancy Outcomes and Nutrition (APrON)) and neighbourhood SES data from the 2011 Canadian census. SETTING: Calgary, Alberta, Canada. PARTICIPANTS: Pregnant women who were <24 weeks of gestation and >15 years old were enrolled in the cohort studies between 2008 and 2012. Overall, 5297 women participated in at least one of these cohorts: 3341 women participated in the AOF study, 2187 women participated in the APrON study and 231 women participated in both studies. Women who participated in both studies were only counted once. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: PTB (delivery prior to 37 weeks of gestation). RESULTS: The rates of PTB in the least and most deprived neighbourhoods were 7.54% and 10.64%, respectively. Neighbourhood variation in PTB was 0.20, with an intra-class correlation of 5.72%. Neighbourhood SES, combined with individual-level predictors, predicted PTB with an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.75. The sensitivity was 91.80% at a low-risk threshold, with a high false-positive rate (71.50%), and the sensitivity was 5.70% at a highest risk threshold, with a low false-positive rate (0.90%). An agreement between the predicted and observed PTB demonstrated modest model calibration. Individual-level predictors alone predicted PTB with an AUC of 0.60. CONCLUSION: Although neighbourhood SES combined with individual-level predictors improved the overall prediction of PTB compared with individual-level predictors alone, the detection rate was insufficient for application in clinical or public health practice. A prediction model with better predictive ability is required to effectively find women at high risk of preterm delivery.

High-volume general practitioners in Alberta: a descriptive analysis.

BACKGROUND: Alberta is considering capping daily fee-for-service physician billings, but little is known about high-volume practice in the province and its impact on patient health outcomes. In this initial study, we conducted a descriptive analysis of general practitioners' patient volumes and billing practices in relation to associated practitioner demographic characteristics. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective descriptive analysis of the associations of practitioner characteristics, including full-time versus non-full-time practice, provider sex, years in practice, geographic location and international medical graduate status, with high-volume (> 50 visits/d) practice using general practice billing data from 2011 to 2016. Use of general practitioner service codes was described and compared by general practitioner volume status, with adjustment for physician demographic characteristics and geographic parameters. RESULTS: We included 3465 general practitioners practising fee-for-service in Alberta between 2011 and 2016, of whom 233 (6.7%) were identified as high-volume providers. Physicians who had been in practice longer (odds ratio [OR] 1.04 per year, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.02-1.05) and international medical graduates (OR 1.89, 95% CI 1.40-2.54) were more likely to exceed 50 patient visits/day. Female physicians were less likely to exceed 50 patient visits/day (OR 0.14, 95% CI 0.07-0.28). Rural practice location was negatively associated with high-volume practice (OR 0.87, 95% CI 0.79-0.95) when we controlled for zone within the province. Zone 5 (North) was associated with high-volume practice (OR 1.95, 95% CI 1.06-3.58). Less than full-time practice was prevalent (1836 providers [53.0%]). High-volume general practitioners billed fewer service codes requiring longer visits, except for the most highly remunerated code (patients with complex health issues). INTERPRETATION: These results can inform policy-makers when considering payment system changes. Our next step is to examine the association of high-volume practice with outcomes important to patients, such as evidence of treatment failure (emergency department visits and hospital admissions) for conditions sensitive to primary care management.

Drip and ship versus direct to endovascular thrombectomy: The impact of treatment times on transport decision-making.

INTRODUCTION: In ischaemic stroke care, fast reperfusion is essential for disability free survival. It is unknown if bypassing thrombolysis centres in favour of endovascular thrombectomy (mothership) outweighs transport to the nearest thrombolysis centre for alteplase and then transfer for endovascular thrombectomy (drip-and-ship). We use conditional probability modelling to determine the impact of treatment times on transport decision-making for acute ischaemic stroke. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Probability of good outcome was modelled using a previously published framework, data from the Irish National Stroke Register, and an endovascular thrombectomy registry at a tertiary referral centre in Ireland. Ireland was divided into 139 regions, transport times between each region and hospital were estimated using Google's Distance Matrix Application Program Interface. Results were mapped using ArcGIS 10.3. RESULTS: Using current treatment times, drip-and-ship rarely predicts best outcomes. However, if door to needle times are reduced to 30 min, drip-and-ship becomes more favourable; even more so if turnaround time (time from thrombolysis to departure for the endovascular thrombectomy centre) is also reduced. Reducing door to groin puncture times predicts better outcomes with the mothership model. DISCUSSION: This is the first case study modelling pre-hospital transport for ischaemic stroke utilising real treatment times in a defined geographic area. A moderate improvement in treatment times results in significant predicted changes to the optimisation of a national acute stroke patient transport strategy. CONCLUSIONS: Modelling patient transport for system-level planning is sensitive to treatment times at both thrombolysis and thrombectomy centres and has important implications for the future planning of thrombectomy services.

Determining geographic areas and populations with timely access to cardiac catheterization facilities for acute myocardial infarction care in Alberta, Canada.

BACKGROUND: This study uses geographic information systems (GIS) as a tool to evaluate and visualize the general accessibility of areas within the province of Alberta (Canada) to cardiac catheterization facilities. Current American and European guidelines suggest performing catheterization within 90 minutes of the first medical contact. For this reason, this study evaluates the populated places that are within a 90 minute transfer time to a city with a catheterization facility. The three modes of transport considered in this study are ground ambulance, rotary wing air ambulance and fixed wing air ambulance. METHODS: Reference data from the Alberta Chart of Call were interpolated into continuous travel time surfaces. These continuous surfaces allowed for the delineation of isochrones: lines that connect areas of equal time. Using Dissemination Area (DA) centroids to represent the adult population, the population numbers were extracted from the isochrones using Statistics Canada census data. RESULTS: By extracting the adult population from within isochrones for each emergency transport mode analyzed, it was found that roughly 70% of the adult population of Alberta had access within 90 minutes to catheterization facilities by ground, roughly 66% of the adult population had access by rotary wing air ambulance and that no population had access within 90 minutes using the fixed wing air ambulance. An overall understanding of the nature of air vs. ground emergency travel was also uncovered; zones were revealed where the use of one mode would be faster than the others for reaching a facility. CONCLUSION: Catheter intervention for acute myocardial infarction is a time sensitive procedure. This study revealed that although a relatively small area of the province had access within the 90 minute time constraint, this area represented a large proportion of the population. Within Alberta, fixed wing air ambulance is not an effective means of transporting patients to a catheterization facility within the 90 minute time frame, though it becomes advantageous as a means of transportation for larger distances when there is less urgency.