Global vaccine coverage and childhood survival estimates: 1990-2019.

Objective: To quantify the association between reduction in child mortality and routine immunization across 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Methods: We used child mortality and vaccine coverage data from the Global Burden of Disease Study. We used a modified child survival framework and applied a mixed-effects regression model to estimate the reduction in deaths in children younger than 5 years associated with eight vaccines. Findings: Between 1990 and 2019, the diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DTP), measles, rotavirus and Haemophilus influenzae type b vaccines were significantly associated with an estimated 86.9 (95% confidence interval, CI: 57.2 to 132.4) million fewer deaths in children younger than 5 years worldwide. This decrease represented a 24.2% (95% CI: 19.8 to 28.9) reduction in deaths relative to a scenario without vaccines. The DTP and measles vaccines averted 46.7 (95% CI: 30.0 to 72.7) million and 37.9 (95% CI: 25.4 to 56.8) million deaths, respectively. Of the total reduction in child mortality associated with vaccines, 84.2% (95% CI: 83.0 to 85.1) occurred in 73 countries supported by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, with an estimated 45.4 (95% CI: 29.8 to 69.2) million fewer deaths from 2000 to 2019. The largest reductions in deaths associated with these four vaccines were in India, China, Ethiopia, Pakistan and Bangladesh (in order of the size of reduction). Conclusion: Vaccines continue to reduce childhood mortality significantly, especially in Gavi-supported countries, emphasizing the need for increased investment in routine immunization programmes.

Group-based trajectory models of integrated vaccine delivery and equity in low- and middle-income countries.

BACKGROUND: Integrated vaccine delivery - the linkage of routine vaccination with provision of other essential health services - is a hallmark of robust primary care systems that has been linked to equitable improvements in population health outcomes. METHODS: We gathered longitudinal data relating to routine immunization coverage and vaccination equity in 78 low- and middle-income countries that have ever received support from Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, using multiple imputation to handle missing values. We then estimated several group-based trajectory models to describe the relationship between integrated vaccine delivery and vaccination equity in these countries. Finally, we used multinomial logistic regression to identify predictors of group membership. RESULTS: We identified five distinct trajectories of geographic vaccination equity across both the imputed and non-imputed datasets, along with two and four trajectories of socioeconomic vaccination equity in the imputed and non-imputed datasets, respectively. Integration was associated with reductions in the slope index of inequality of measles vaccination in the countries analyzed. Integration was also associated with an increase in the percentage of districts reporting high measles vaccination coverage. CONCLUSIONS: Integrated vaccine delivery is most strongly associated with improvements in vaccination equity in settings with high baseline levels of inequity. Continued scholarship is needed to further characterize the relationship between integration and health equity, as well as to improve measurement of vaccination coverage and integration.

Equity in vaccine coverage in Uganda from 2000 to 2016: revealing the multifaceted nature of inequity.

BACKGROUND: This study analyses vaccine coverage and equity among children under five years of age in Uganda based on the 2016 Uganda Demographic and Health Survey (UDHS) dataset. Understanding equity in vaccine access and the determinants is crucial for the redress of emerging as well as persistent inequities. METHODS: Applied to the UDHS for 2000, 2006, 2011, and 2016, the Vaccine Economics Research for Sustainability and Equity (VERSE) Equity Toolkit provides a multivariate assessment of immunization coverage and equity by (1) ranking the sample population with a composite direct unfairness index, (2) generating quantitative measure of efficiency (coverage) and equity, and (3) decomposing inequity into its contributing factors. The direct unfairness ranking variable is the predicted vaccination coverage from a logistic model based upon fair and unfair sources of variation in vaccination coverage. Our fair source of variation is defined as the child's age - children too young to receive routine immunization are not expected to be vaccinated. Unfair sources of variation are the child's region of residence, and whether they live in an urban or rural area, the mother's education level, the household's socioeconomic status, the child's sex, and their insurance coverage status. For each unfair source of variation, we identify a "more privileged" situation. RESULTS: The coverage and equity of the Diphtheria-Pertussis-Tetanus vaccine, 3rd dose (DPT3) and the Measles-Containing Vaccine, 1st dose (MCV1) - two vaccines indicative of the health system's performance - improved significantly since 2000, from 49.7% to 76.8% and 67.8% to 82.7%, respectively, and there are fewer zero-dose children: from 8.4% to 2.2%. Improvements in retaining children in the program so that they complete the immunization schedule are more modest (from 38.1% to 40.8%). Progress in coverage was pro-poor, with concentration indices (wealth only) moving from 0.127 (DPT3) and 0.123 (MCV1) in 2000 to -0.042 and -0.029 in 2016. Gains in overall equity (composite) were more modest, albeit significant for most vaccines except for MCV1: concentration indices of 0.150 (DPT3) and 0.087 (MCV1) in 2000 and 0.054 and 0.055 in 2016. The influence of the region and settings (urban/rural) of residence significantly decreased since 2000. CONCLUSION: The past two decades have seen significant improvements in vaccine coverage and equity, thanks to the efforts to strengthen routine immunization and ongoing supplemental immunization activities such as the Family Health Days. While maintaining the regular provision of vaccines to all regions, efforts should be made to alleviate the impact of low maternal education and literacy on vaccination uptake.

COVAX and equitable access to COVID-19 vaccines.

Objective: To evaluate equity in the allocation and distribution of vaccines for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) to countries and territories participating in the COVID-19 Vaccines Global Access (COVAX) Facility. Methods: We used publicly available data on the numbers of COVAX vaccine doses allocated and distributed to 88 countries and territories qualifying for COVAX-sponsored vaccine doses and 60 countries self-financing their vaccine doses facilitated by COVAX. We conducted a benefit-incident analysis to examine the allocation and distribution of vaccines based on countries' gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. We plotted cumulative country-level per capita allocation and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines from COVAX against the ranked per capita GDP of the countries and territories to generate a measure of the equity of COVAX benefits. Findings: By 23 January 2022 the COVAX Facility had allocated a total of 1 678 517 990 COVID-19 vaccine doses, of which 1 028 291 430 (61%) doses were distributed to 148 countries and territories. Taking account of COVAX subsidies, we found that countries and territories with low per capita GDP benefited more than higher-income countries in the numbers of vaccines. The benefits increased further when the analysis was adjusted by population age group (aged 65 years and older). Conclusion: The COVAX Facility is helping to balance global inequities in the allocation and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines. However, COVAX alone has not been enough to reverse the inequality of total COVID-19 vaccine distribution. Future studies could examine the equity of all COVID-19 vaccine allocation and distribution beyond the COVAX-facilitated vaccines.

COVID-19 impact on index testing services and programmatic cost in 5 high HIV prevalence Indian districts.

BACKGROUND: Restrictions to curb the first wave of COVID-19 in India resulted in a decline in facility-based HIV testing rates, likely contributing to increased HIV transmission and disease progression. The programmatic and economic impact of COVID-19 on index testing, a standardized contact tracing strategy, remains unknown. METHODS: Retrospective programmatic and costing data were analyzed under a US government-supported program to assess the pandemic's impact on the programmatic outcomes and cost of index testing implemented in two Indian states (Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh). We compared index testing continuum outcomes during lockdown (April-June 2020) and post-lockdown (July-Sept 2020) relative to pre-lockdown (January-March 2020) by estimating adjusted rate ratios (aRRs) using negative binomial regression. Startup and recurrent programmatic costs were estimated across geographies using a micro-costing approach. Per unit costs were calculated for each index testing continuum outcome. RESULTS: Pre-lockdown, 2431 index clients were offered services, 3858 contacts were elicited, 3191 contacts completed HIV testing, 858 contacts tested positive, and 695 contacts initiated ART. Compared to pre-lockdown, the number of contacts elicited decreased during lockdown (aRR = 0.13; 95% CI: 0.11-0.16) and post-lockdown (aRR = 0.49; 95% CI: 0.43-0.56); and the total contacts newly diagnosed with HIV also decreased during lockdown (aRR = 0.22; 95% CI: 0.18-0.26) and post-lockdown (aRR = 0.52; 95% CI: 0.45-0.59). HIV positivity increased from 27% pre-lockdown to 40% during lockdown and decreased to 26% post-lockdown. Further, ART initiation improved from 81% pre-lockdown to 88% during lockdown and post-lockdown. The overall cost to operate index testing was $193,457 pre-lockdown and decreased during lockdown to $132,177 (32%) and $126,155 (35%) post-lockdown. Post-lockdown unit cost of case identification rose in facility sites ($372) compared to pre-lockdown ($205), however it decreased in community-based sites from pre-lockdown ($277) to post-lockdown ($166). CONCLUSIONS: There was a dramatic decline in the number of index testing clients in the wake of COVID-19 restrictions that resulted in higher unit costs to deliver services; yet, improved linkage to ART suggests that decongesting centres could improve efficiency. Training index testing staff to provide support across services including non-facility-based HIV testing mechanisms (i.e., telemedicine, HIV self-testing, community-based approaches) may help optimize resources during public health emergencies.

Modeling the potential economic benefits of an oral SARS-CoV-2 vaccine during an outbreak of COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Given patient preferences, the choice of delivery modality for vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 has the potential to significantly impact both health and economic consequences of an outbreak of COVID-19. This study models the projected health and economic impact of an oral COVID-19 vaccine in the United States during an outbreak occurring between December 1, 2021 and February 16, 2022.  METHODS: A cost-of-illness economic decision analysis model is utilized to assess both the health and economic impact of an oral vaccine delivery platform compared with the status quo deployment of existing intramuscular vaccines against COVID-19. Health impact is assessed in terms of predicted cases, deaths, hospitalization days, intensive care unit admission days, and mechanical ventilation days averted. Health system economic impact is assessed based on the cost-of-illness averted derived from the average daily costs of medical care, stratified by severity. Productivity loss due to premature death is estimated based on regulatory analysis guidelines proposed by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.  RESULTS: Based upon preference data, we estimate that the availability of an oral COVID-19 vaccine would increase vaccine uptake from 214 million people to 232 million people. This higher vaccination rate was estimated to result in 2,497,087 fewer infections, 25,709 fewer deaths, 1,365,497 fewer hospitalization days, 186,714 fewer Intensive Care Unit (ICU) days, and 80,814 fewer patient days requiring mechanical ventilation (MV) compared with the status quo. From a health systems perspective, this translates into $3.3 billion in health sector costs averted. An additional $139-$450 billion could have been averted in productivity loss due to a reduction in premature deaths. CONCLUSIONS: Vaccine delivery modalities that are aligned with patient preferences have the ability to increase vaccination uptake and reduce both the health and economic impact of an outbreak of COVID-19. We estimate that the total economic impact of productivity loss and health systems cost-of-illness averted from an oral vaccine could range from 0.6%-2.9% of 2021 U.S, Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

Healthcare use and costs among individuals receiving mental health services for depression within primary care in Nepal.

BACKGROUND: Integrating mental health services into primary care is a key strategy for reducing the mental healthcare treatment gap in low- and middle-income countries. We examined healthcare use and costs over time among individuals with depression and subclinical depressive symptoms in Chitwan, Nepal to understand the impact of integrated care on individual and health system resources. METHODS: Individuals diagnosed with depression at ten primary care facilities were randomized to receive a package of integrated care based on the Mental Health Gap Action Programme (treatment group; TG) or this package plus individual psychotherapy (TG + P); individuals with subclinical depressive symptoms received primary care as usual (UC). Primary outcomes were changes in use and health system costs of outpatient healthcare at 3- and 12-month follow up. Secondary outcomes examined use and costs by type. We used Poisson and log-linear models for use and costs, respectively, with an interaction term between time point and study group, and with TG as reference. RESULTS: The study included 192 primary care service users (TG = 60, TG + P = 60, UC = 72; 86% female, 24% formally employed, mean age 41.1). At baseline, outpatient visits were similar (- 11%, p = 0.51) among TG + P and lower (- 35%, p = 0.01) among UC compared to TG. Visits increased 2.30 times (p < 0.001) at 3 months among TG, with a 50% greater increase (p = 0.03) among TG + P, before returning to baseline levels among all groups at 12 months. Comparing TG + P to TG, costs were similar at baseline (- 1%, p = 0.97) and cost changes did not significantly differ at three (- 16%, p = 0.67) or 12 months (- 45%, p = 0.13). Costs among UC were 54% lower than TG at baseline (p = 0.005), with no significant differences in cost changes over follow up. Post hoc analysis indicated individuals not receiving psychotherapy used less frequent, more costly healthcare. CONCLUSION: Delivering psychotherapy within integrated services for depression resulted in greater healthcare use without significantly greater costs to the health system or individual. Previous research in Chitwan demonstrated psychotherapy determined treatment effectiveness for people with depression. While additional research is needed into service implementation costs, our findings provide further evidence supporting the inclusion of psychotherapy within mental healthcare integration in Nepal and similar contexts.

Costs of Immunization Programs for 10 Vaccines in 94 Low- and Middle-Income Countries From 2011 to 2030.

OBJECTIVES: Understanding the level of investment needed for the 2021-2030 decade is important as the global community faces the next strategic period for vaccines and immunization programs. To assist with this goal, we estimated the aggregate costs of immunization programs for ten vaccines in 94 low- and middle-income countries from 2011 to 2030. METHOD: We calculated vaccine, immunization delivery and stockpile costs for 94 low- and middle-income countries leveraging the latest available data sources. We conducted scenario analyses to vary assumptions about the relationship between delivery cost and coverage as well as vaccine prices for fully self-financing countries. RESULTS: The total aggregate cost of immunization programs in 94 countries for 10 vaccines from 2011 to 2030 is $70.8 billion (confidence interval: $56.6-$93.3) under the base case scenario and $84.1 billion ($72.8-$102.7) under an incremental delivery cost scenario, with an increasing trend over two decades. The relative proportion of vaccine and delivery costs for pneumococcal conjugate, human papillomavirus, and rotavirus vaccines increase as more countries introduce these vaccines. Nine countries in accelerated transition phase bear the highest burden of the costs in the next decade, and uncertainty with vaccine prices for the 17 fully self-financing countries could lead to total costs that are 1.3-13.1 times higher than the base case scenario. CONCLUSION: Resource mobilization efforts at the global and country levels will be needed to reach the level of investment needed for the coming decade. Global-level initiatives and targeted strategies for transitioning countries will help ensure the sustainability of immunization programs.

Economic Benefits of Immunization for 10 Pathogens in 94 Low- and Middle-Income Countries From 2011 to 2030 Using Cost-of-Illness and Value-of-Statistical-Life Approaches.

OBJECTIVES: Vaccination has prevented millions of deaths and cases of disease in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). During the Decade of Vaccines (2011-2020), international organizations, including the World Health Organization and Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, focused on new vaccine introduction and expanded coverage of existing vaccines. As Gavi, other organizations, and country governments look to the future, we aimed to estimate the economic benefits of immunization programs made from 2011 to 2020 and potential gains in the future decade. METHODS: We used estimates of cases and deaths averted by vaccines against 10 pathogens in 94 LMICs to estimate the economic value of immunization. We applied 3 approaches-cost of illness averted (COI), value of statistical life (VSL), and value of statistical life-year (VSLY)-to estimate observable and unobservable economic benefits between 2011 and 2030. RESULTS: From 2011 to 2030, immunization would avert $1510.4 billion ($674.3-$2643.2 billion) (2018 USD) in costs of illness in the 94 modeled countries, compared with the counterfactual of no vaccination. Using the VSL approach, immunization would generate $3436.7 billion ($1615.8-$5657.2 billion) in benefits. Applying the VSLY approach, $5662.7 billion ($2547.2-$9719.4) in benefits would be generated. CONCLUSION: Vaccination has generated significant economic benefits in LMICs in the past decade. To reach predicted levels of economic benefits, countries and international donor organizations need to meet coverage projections outlined in the Gavi Operational Forecast. Estimates generated using the COI, VSL, or VSLY approach may be strategically used by donor agencies, decision makers, and advocates to inform investment cases and advocacy campaigns.

Value of statistical life year in extreme poverty: a randomized experiment of measurement methods in rural Burkina Faso.

BACKGROUND: Value of a Statistical Life Year (VSLY) provides an important economic measure of an individual's trade-off between health risks and other consumption, and is a widely used policy parameter. Measuring VSLY is complex though, especially in low-income and low-literacy communities. METHODS: Using a large randomized experiment (N = 3027), we study methodological aspects of stated-preference elicitation with payment cards (price lists) in an extreme poverty context. In a 2 × 2 design, we systematically vary whether buying or selling prices are measured, crossed with the range of the payment card. RESULTS: We find substantial effects of both the pricing method and the list range on elicited VSLY. Estimates of the gross domestic product per capita multiplier for VSLY range from 3.5 to 33.5 depending on the study design. Importantly, all estimates are economically and statistically significantly larger than the current World Health Organization threshold of 3.0 for cost-effectiveness analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Our results inform design choice in VSLY measurements, and provide insight into the potential variability of these measurements and possibly robustness checks.

Change in full immunization inequalities in Indian children 12-23 months: an analysis of household survey data.

BACKGROUND: India has made substantial progress in improving child health in recent years. However, the country continues to account for a large number of vaccine preventable child deaths. We estimated wealth-related full immunization inequalities in India. We also calculated the degree to which predisposing, reinforcing, and enabling factors contribute to these inequalities. METHODS: We used data from the two rounds of a large nationally representative survey done in all states in India in 2005-06 (n = 9582) and 2015-16 (n = 49,284). Full immunization status was defined as three doses of diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis vaccine, three doses of polio vaccine, one dose of Bacillus Calmette-Guérin vaccine, and one dose of measles vaccine in children 12-23 months. We compared full immunization coverage by wealth quintiles using descriptive statistics. We calculated concentration indices for full immunization coverage at the national and state levels. Using predisposing, reinforcing, and enabling factors associated with full immunization status identified from the literature, we applied a generalized linear model (GLM) framework with a binomial distribution and an identity link to decompose the concentration index. RESULTS: National full immunization coverage increased from 43.65% in 2005-06 to 62.46% in 2015-16. Overall, full immunization coverage in both 2005-06 and 2015-16 in all states was lowest in children from poorer households and improved with increasing socioeconomic status. The national concentration index decreased from 0.36 to 0.13 between the two study periods, indicating a reduction in poor-rich inequality. Similar reductions were observed for most states, except in states where inequalities were already minimal (i.e., Tamil Nadu) and in some northeastern states (i.e., Meghalaya and Manipur). In 2005-06, the contributors to wealth-related full immunization inequality were antenatal care, maternal education, and socioeconomic status. The same factors contributed to full immunization inequality in 2015-16 in addition to difficulty reaching a health facility. CONCLUSIONS: Immunization coverage and wealth-related equality have improved nationally and in most states over the last decade in India. Targeted, context-specific interventions could help address overall wealth-related full immunization inequalities. Intensified government efforts could help in this regard, particularly in high-focus states where child mortality remains high.

Socioeconomic associations of poorly controlled epilepsy in the Republic of Guinea: cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVE: To explore the socioeconomic factors associated with epilepsy in the Republic of Guinea. METHODS: People living with epilepsy (PLWE) were prospectively recruited at Ignace Deen Hospital, Conakry, in 2018. An instrument exploring household assets as a measure of wealth was designed and administered. Multivariate logistic regression models with fixed effects were fitted to assess the associations of sociodemographic and microeconomic factors with self-reported frequency of seizures in the prior month and regular intake of antiseizure medications (ASMs). Participants were stratified by age group: children (<13 years), adolescents (13-21) and adults (>21). RESULTS: A total of 285 participants (mean age 19.5 years; 129 females; 106 children, 72 adolescents, 107 adults, median household size 8) had an average of 4.2 seizures in the prior month. 64% were regularly taking ASMs. Direct costs of epilepsy were similar across income strata, averaging 60 USD/month in the lowest and 75 USD/month in the highest wealth quintiles (P = 0.42). The poorest PLWE were more likely to spend their money on traditional treatments (average 35USD/month) than on medical consultations (average 11 USD/month) (P = 0.01), whereas the wealthiest participants were not. Higher seizure frequency was associated with a lower household education level in adolescents and children (P = 0.028; P = 0.026) and with being male (P = 0.009) in children. Adolescents in higher-educated households were more likely to take ASMs (P = 0.004). Boys were more likely to regularly take ASMs than girls (P = 0.047). CONCLUSIONS: Targeted programming for children and adolescents in the households with the lowest education and for girls would help improve epilepsy care in Guinea.

OBJECTIF: Explorer les facteurs socioéconomiques associés à l'épilepsie en République de Guinée. MÉTHODES: Des personnes vivant avec l'épilepsie (PVE) ont été recrutées prospectivement à l'hôpital Ignace Deen, à Conakry, en 2018. Un outil explorant les actifs des ménages en tant que mesure de la richesse a été conçu et administré. Des modèles de régression logistique multivariée avec des effets fixes ont été ajustés pour évaluer les associations de facteurs sociodémographiques et microéconomiques avec la fréquence autodéclarée des crises au cours du mois précédent et la prise régulière de médicaments antiépileptiques (MAE). Les participants ont été stratifiés par groupe d'âge: enfants (<13 ans), adolescents (13-21) et adultes (> 21). RÉSULTATS: 285 participants (âge moyen 19,5 ans; 129 femmes; 106 enfants, 72 adolescents, 107 adultes, taille médiane du ménage 8) ont eu en moyenne 4,2 crises au cours du mois précédent. 64% prenaient régulièrement des MAE. Les coûts directs de l'épilepsie étaient similaires dans toutes les strates de revenus, atteignant en moyenne 60 USD/mois dans les quintiles de richesse les plus bas et 75 USD/mois dans les quintiles de richesse les plus élevés (p = 0,42). Les PVE les plus pauvres étaient plus susceptibles de dépenser leur argent pour des traitements traditionnels (35 USD/mois en moyenne) que pour des consultations médicales (11 USD/mois en moyenne) (p = 0,01), contrairement aux participants les plus riches. Une fréquence de crises plus élevée était associée à un niveau d'éducation du ménage plus faible chez les adolescents et les enfants (p = 0,028; p = 0,026) et au fait d'être de sexe masculin (p = 0,009) chez les enfants. Les adolescents des ménages avec un niveau d'éducation plus élevé étaient plus susceptibles de prendre des MAE (p = 0,004). Les garçons étaient plus susceptibles de prendre régulièrement des MAE que les filles (p = 0,047). CONCLUSIONS: Des programmes ciblés pour les enfants et les adolescents dans les ménages les moins scolarisés et pour les filles aideraient à améliorer les soins de l'épilepsie en Guinée.

The economic burden of measles in children under five in Bangladesh.

BACKGROUND: This study estimated the economic cost of treating measles in children under-5 in Bangladesh from the caregiver, government, and societal perspectives. METHOD: We conducted an incidence-based study using an ingredient-based approach. We surveyed the administrative staff and the healthcare professionals at the facilities, recording their estimates supported by administrative data from the healthcare perspective. We conducted 100 face-to-face caregiver interviews at discharge and phone interviews 7 to 14 days post-discharge to capture all expenses, including time costs related to measles. All costs are in 2018 USD ($). RESULTS: From a societal perspective, a hospitalized and ambulatory case of measles cost $159 and $18, respectively. On average, the government spent $22 per hospitalized case of measles. At the same time, caregivers incurred $131 and $182 in economic costs, including $48 and $83 in out-of-pocket expenses in public and private not-for-profit facilities, respectively. Seventy-eight percent of the poorest caregivers faced catastrophic health expenditures compared to 21% of the richest. In 2018, 2263 cases of measles were confirmed, totaling $348,073 in economic costs to Bangladeshi society, with $121,842 in out-of-pocket payments for households. CONCLUSION: The resurgence of measles outbreaks is a substantial cost for society, requiring significant short-term public expenditures, putting households into a precarious financial situation. Improving vaccination coverage in areas where it is deficient (Sylhet division in our study) would likely alleviate most of this burden.

Correction to: Malaria control across borders: quasi-experimental evidence from the Trans-Kunene malaria initiative (TKMI).

Following publication of the original article [1], the authors flagged an error in Addition file 6.

Correction to: benefit incidence analysis in public health facilities in India: utilization and benefits at the national and state levels.

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Benefit incidence analysis in public health facilities in India: utilization and benefits at the national and state levels.

BACKGROUND: Benefit Incidence Analysis (BIA) is used to understand the distribution of health care utilization and spending in comparison to income distribution. The results can illustrate how effectively governments allocate limited resources towards meeting the needs of the poor. In analyzing the distribution of public spending on inpatient, outpatient, and deliveries, this paper represents the most recent BIA completed in India. METHODS: In order to conduct the BIA statistical analysis for this project, 2014 utilization data from the most recently completed Indian National Sample Survey (NSS) was used. Unit costs were estimated for primary care, hospital inpatient, hospital outpatient, and deliveries. Concentration curves and concentration indices were estimated both at the national and state levels. Analyses were reported for overall utilization, as well as for the gross and net benefits for inpatient, outpatient, and deliveries. RESULTS: According to the results, utilization of government inpatient and delivery services is pro-poor. When gross and net benefits are included in the analysis, services become more equal and less pro-poor. Gross benefits, which are measured with state-level unit costs, are virtually equal for all services. Although there are some pro-poor gross benefits trends for national outpatient services, the results also show that the equality of national gross benefits trends hides a significant disparity across Indian States. While a number of Indian States have outpatient gross benefits that are pro-poor, few show pro-poor benefits for inpatient and delivery services. Net benefits, which considers both unit costs for each respective service, and out-of-pocket (OOP) expenditures, trend similarly to gross benefits. In addition, those who use public facilities spend considerable OOP to supplement government services. CONCLUSIONS: This BIA reveals that government spending on public health care has not resulted in significantly pro-poor services. While some progress has been made relative to deliveries and outpatient services, inpatient stays are not pro-poor. In addition, national results mask significant disparities across Indian states.

School status and its associations among children with epilepsy in the Republic of Guinea.

BACKGROUND: In low-income countries (LICs), there are multiple barriers for children with epilepsy (CWE) to attend school. We examined potentially modifiable associations with poor school performance in CWE in the West African Republic of Guinea. METHODS: Children with epilepsy of school age were recruited using public announcements and a clinical register of people with epilepsy at the Ignace Deen Hospital in Conakry in 2018. A team of Guinean and U.S. neurologists and neurologists-in-training interviewed each CWE and parent for his/her epilepsy history, household finances, educational attainment level, and perceived stigma using the Stigma Scale of Epilepsy (SSE). Each child was also tested using the Wechsler Nonverbal Scale of Ability (WNV). Low school performance was defined as either not attending school or being held back a grade level at least once. Potential predictors of low school performance were analyzed. FINDINGS: Of 128 CWE (mean age: 11.6 years, 48.4% female), 11.7% (n = 15) never attended school, 23.3% (n = 30) dropped out, and 64.8% (n = 83) were currently enrolled. Of CWE attending school, 46.9% (n = 39) were held back a grade level. Overall, 54 children were defined as low performers (LPs) (42%). ;Greater than 100 lifetime seizures (odds ratio (OR) = 8.81; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.51, 37.4; p = 0.001) and lower total WNV score (OR = 0.954; 95% CI = 0.926, 0.977; p < 0.001) were significantly associated with poor school performance in separate models, when controlling for potential confounders. Given the strong relationship between seizure freedom and school performance, we estimated that 38 additional CWE (33.6%) could become high performers (HPs) if all CWE were adequately treated to achieve the lifetime seizure category of <10 seizures and could be cognitively intact again. Models examining SSE and household wealth quintile were not significantly associated with school performance. CONCLUSIONS: Higher lifetime seizures and lower WNV score were significantly associated with low school performance in CWE in Guinea. In spite of our conservative definition of high school performance (attending without failing) and risk of referral bias at an academic center where patients were allowed to self-refer, we demonstrate that seizure control in this setting could increase the number of CWE who could attend and stay in school.

The economic burden of epilepsy in Bhutan.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the economic impact of epilepsy in Bhutan, a lower-middle-income country with a universal health care system, but with limited access to neurological care. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was conducted of patients with epilepsy at the Jigme Dorji Wangchuk National Referral Hospital from January to August 2016. Data were collected on clinical features, cost of care, impact of epilepsy on school or work and household economic status of participants and matched comparisons (a sibling or neighbour from a household without epilepsy). RESULTS: A total of 172 individuals were included in the study (130 adults and 42 children). One-third of adults and 20 (48%) children had seizures at least once per month. Mean direct out-of-pocket cost for epilepsy care was 6054 Bhutanese Ngultrum (BTN; 91 USD) per year, of which transportation formed the greatest portion (53%). Direct costs of epilepsy were an average of 3.2% of annual household income. Adults missed 6.8 (standard deviation [SD]: 9.0) days of work or school per year on average, and children missed 18.6 (SD: 34.7) days of school. Among adults, 23 (18%) abandoned employment or school because of epilepsy; seven children (18%) stopped school because of epilepsy. Households with a person with epilepsy had a lower monthly per-person income (6434 BTN) than comparison households without epilepsy (8892 BTN; P = 0.027). CONCLUSIONS: In Bhutan, despite universal health care services, households of people with epilepsy face a significant economic burden. With many adults and children unable to attend school or work, epilepsy causes a major disruption to individuals' livelihoods.

Malaria control across borders: quasi-experimental evidence from the Trans-Kunene malaria initiative (TKMI).

BACKGROUND: The transmission of malaria through population inflows from highly endemic areas with limited control efforts poses major challenges for national malaria control programmes. Several multilateral programmes have been launched in recent years to address cross-border transmission. This study assesses the potential impact of such a programme at the Angolan-Namibian border. METHODS: Community-based malaria prevention programmes involving bed net distribution and behaviour change home visits were rolled-out using a controlled, staggered (stepped wedge) design between May 2014 and July 2016 in a 100 × 40 km corridor along the Angolan-Namibian border. Three rounds of survey data were collected. The primary outcome studied was fever among children under five in the 2 weeks prior to the survey. Multivariable linear and logistic regression models were used to assess overall programme impact and the relative impact of unilateral versus coordinated bilateral intervention programmes. RESULTS: A total of 3844 child records were analysed. On average, programme rollout reduced the odds of child fever by 54% (aOR: 0.46, 95% CI 0.29 to 0.73) over the intervention period. In Namibia, the programme reduced the odds of fever by 30% in areas without simultaneous Angolan efforts (aOR: 0.70, 95% CI 0.34 to 1.44), and by an additional 62% in areas with simultaneous Angolan programmes. In Angola, the programme was highly effective in areas within 5 km of Namibian programmes (OR: 0.37, 95% CI 0.22 to 0.62), but mostly ineffective in areas closer to inland Angolan areas without concurrent anti-malarial efforts. CONCLUSIONS: The impact of malaria programmes depends on programme efforts in surrounding areas with differential control efforts. Coordinated malaria programming within and across countries will be critical for achieving the vision of a malaria free world.