Viral and Host Factors Are Associated With Mortality in Hospitalized Patients With COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Persistent mortality in adults hospitalized due to acute COVID-19 justifies pursuit of disease mechanisms and potential therapies. The aim was to evaluate which virus and host response factors were associated with mortality risk among participants in Therapeutics for Inpatients with COVID-19 (TICO/ACTIV-3) trials. METHODS: A secondary analysis of 2625 adults hospitalized for acute SARS-CoV-2 infection randomized to 1 of 5 antiviral products or matched placebo in 114 centers on 4 continents. Uniform, site-level collection of participant baseline clinical variables was performed. Research laboratories assayed baseline upper respiratory swabs for SARS-CoV-2 viral RNA and plasma for anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid antigen (viral Ag), and interleukin-6 (IL-6). Associations between factors and time to mortality by 90 days were assessed using univariate and multivariable Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: Viral Ag ≥4500 ng/L (vs <200 ng/L; adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 2.07; 1.29-3.34), viral RNA (<35 000 copies/mL [aHR, 2.42; 1.09-5.34], ≥35 000 copies/mL [aHR, 2.84; 1.29-6.28], vs below detection), respiratory support (<4 L O2 [aHR, 1.84; 1.06-3.22]; ≥4 L O2 [aHR, 4.41; 2.63-7.39], or noninvasive ventilation/high-flow nasal cannula [aHR, 11.30; 6.46-19.75] vs no oxygen), renal impairment (aHR, 1.77; 1.29-2.42), and IL-6 >5.8 ng/L (aHR, 2.54 [1.74-3.70] vs ≤5.8 ng/L) were significantly associated with mortality risk in final adjusted analyses. Viral Ag, viral RNA, and IL-6 were not measured in real-time. CONCLUSIONS: Baseline virus-specific, clinical, and biological variables are strongly associated with mortality risk within 90 days, revealing potential pathogen and host-response therapeutic targets for acute COVID-19 disease.

Hepatic steatosis in people older and younger than fifty who are living with HIV and HIV-negative controls: A cross-sectional study nested within the POPPY cohort.

BACKGROUND: Hepatic steatosis is a major cause of chronic liver disease associated with several negative health outcomes. We compared the prevalence of and factors associated with steatosis in people living with and without HIV. METHODS: Older (>50 years) and younger (<50 years) people with HIV and older HIV-negative controls (>50 years) underwent liver transient elastography examination with controlled attenuation parameter (steatosis ≥238 dB/m, moderate/severe steatosis ≥280 dB/m, liver fibrosis ≥7.1 kPa). We compared groups using logistic regression/Chi-squared/Fisher's exact/Kruskal-Wallis tests. RESULTS: In total, 317 participants (109 older people with HIV; 101 younger people with HIV; 107 HIV-negative controls) were predominantly white (86%) and male (76%), and 21% were living with obesity (body mass index ≥30 kg/m2 ). Most (97%) people with HIV had undetectable HIV RNA. The prevalence of fibrosis was 8.4%, 3.0%, and 6.5% in the three groups, respectively (p = 0.26). Fibrosis was predominately (>65%) mild. The prevalence of steatosis was the same in older people with HIV (66.4%) and controls (66.4%) but lower in younger people with HIV (37.4%; p < 0.001). After adjustment, younger people with HIV were less likely to have steatosis (odds ratio [OR] 0.26; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.14-0.52) than controls, but male sex (OR 2.45; 95% CI 1.20-4.50) and high waist-to-hip ratio (OR 3.04; 95% CI 1.74-5.33) were associated with an increased odds of steatosis. We found no association between steatosis and HIV-related variables. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of hepatic steatosis and fibrosis was similar between older participants regardless of HIV status. Age, sex, and abdominal obesity, but not HIV-related variables, were associated with steatosis. Interventions for controlling obesity should be integrated into routine HIV care.

Fewer COVID-19 Neurological Complications with Dexamethasone and Remdesivir.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to assess the impact of treatment with dexamethasone, remdesivir or both on neurological complications in acute coronavirus diease 2019 (COVID-19). METHODS: We used observational data from the International Severe Acute and emerging Respiratory Infection Consortium World Health Organization (WHO) Clinical Characterization Protocol, United Kingdom. Hospital inpatients aged ≥18 years with laboratory-confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection admitted between January 31, 2020, and June 29, 2021, were included. Treatment allocation was non-blinded and performed by reporting clinicians. A propensity scoring methodology was used to minimize confounding. Treatment with remdesivir, dexamethasone, or both was assessed against the standard of care. The primary outcome was a neurological complication occurring at the point of death, discharge, or resolution of the COVID-19 clinical episode. RESULTS: Out of 89,297 hospital inpatients, 64,088 had severe COVID-19 and 25,209 had non-hypoxic COVID-19. Neurological complications developed in 4.8% and 4.5%, respectively. In both groups, neurological complications were associated with increased mortality, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, worse self-care on discharge, and time to recovery. In patients with severe COVID-19, treatment with dexamethasone (n = 21,129), remdesivir (n = 1,428), and both combined (n = 10,846) were associated with a lower frequency of neurological complications: OR = 0.76 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.69-0.83), OR = 0.69 (95% CI = 0.51-0.90), and OR = 0.54 (95% CI = 0.47-0.61), respectively. In patients with non-hypoxic COVID-19, dexamethasone (n = 2,580) was associated with less neurological complications (OR = 0.78, 95% CI = 0.62-0.97), whereas the dexamethasone/remdesivir combination (n = 460) showed a similar trend (OR = 0.63, 95% CI = 0.31-1.15). INTERPRETATION: Treatment with dexamethasone, remdesivir, or both in patients hospitalized with COVID-19 was associated with a lower frequency of neurological complications in an additive manner, such that the greatest benefit was observed in patients who received both drugs together. ANN NEUROL 2023;93:88-102.

Modelling the potential effectiveness of hepatitis C screening and treatment strategies during pregnancy in Egypt and Ukraine.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: HCV test and treat campaigns currently exclude pregnant women. Pregnancy offers a unique opportunity for HCV screening and to potentially initiate direct-acting antiviral treatment. We explored HCV screening and treatment strategies in two lower middle-income countries with high HCV prevalence, Egypt and Ukraine. METHODS: Country-specific probabilistic decision models were developed to simulate a cohort of pregnant women. We compared five strategies: S0, targeted risk-based screening and deferred treatment (DT) to after pregnancy/breastfeeding; S1, World Health Organization (WHO) risk-based screening and DT; S2, WHO risk-based screening and targeted treatment (treat women with risk factors for HCV vertical transmission [VT]); S3, universal screening and targeted treatment during pregnancy; S4, universal screening and treatment. Maternal and infant HCV outcomes were projected. RESULTS: S0 resulted in the highest proportion of women undiagnosed: 59% and 20% in Egypt and Ukraine, respectively, with 0% maternal cure by delivery and VT estimated at 6.5% and 7.9%, respectively. WHO risk-based screening and DT (S1) increased the proportion of women diagnosed with no change in maternal cure or VT. Universal screening and treatment during pregnancy (S4) resulted in the highest proportion of women diagnosed and cured by delivery (65% and 70%, respectively), and lower levels of VT (3.4% and 3.6%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: This is one of the first models to explore HCV screening and treatment strategies in pregnancy, which will be critical in informing future care and policy as more safety/efficacy data emerge. Universal screening and treatment in pregnancy could potentially improve both maternal and infant outcomes. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: In the context of two lower middle-income countries with high HCV burdens (Egypt and Ukraine), we designed a decision analytic model to explore five different HCV testing and treatment strategies for pregnant women, with the assumption that treatment was safe and efficacious for use in pregnancy. Assuming direct-acting antiviral treatment during pregnancy would reduce vertical transmission, our findings indicate that the provision of universal (rather than risk-based targeted) screening and treatment would provide the greatest maternal and infant benefits. While future trials are needed to assess the safety and efficacy of direct-acting antivirals in pregnancy and their impact on vertical transmission, there is increasing recognition that the elimination of HCV cannot leave entire subpopulations of pregnant women and young children behind. Our findings will be critical for policymakers when developing improved screening and treatment recommendations for pregnant women.

Remdesivir for the Treatment of Covid-19 - Final Report.

BACKGROUND: Although several therapeutic agents have been evaluated for the treatment of coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19), no antiviral agents have yet been shown to be efficacious. METHODS: We conducted a double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trial of intravenous remdesivir in adults who were hospitalized with Covid-19 and had evidence of lower respiratory tract infection. Patients were randomly assigned to receive either remdesivir (200 mg loading dose on day 1, followed by 100 mg daily for up to 9 additional days) or placebo for up to 10 days. The primary outcome was the time to recovery, defined by either discharge from the hospital or hospitalization for infection-control purposes only. RESULTS: A total of 1062 patients underwent randomization (with 541 assigned to remdesivir and 521 to placebo). Those who received remdesivir had a median recovery time of 10 days (95% confidence interval [CI], 9 to 11), as compared with 15 days (95% CI, 13 to 18) among those who received placebo (rate ratio for recovery, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.12 to 1.49; P<0.001, by a log-rank test). In an analysis that used a proportional-odds model with an eight-category ordinal scale, the patients who received remdesivir were found to be more likely than those who received placebo to have clinical improvement at day 15 (odds ratio, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.2 to 1.9, after adjustment for actual disease severity). The Kaplan-Meier estimates of mortality were 6.7% with remdesivir and 11.9% with placebo by day 15 and 11.4% with remdesivir and 15.2% with placebo by day 29 (hazard ratio, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.52 to 1.03). Serious adverse events were reported in 131 of the 532 patients who received remdesivir (24.6%) and in 163 of the 516 patients who received placebo (31.6%). CONCLUSIONS: Our data show that remdesivir was superior to placebo in shortening the time to recovery in adults who were hospitalized with Covid-19 and had evidence of lower respiratory tract infection. (Funded by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and others; ACTT-1 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04280705.).

Evaluating Primary Endpoints for COVID-19 Therapeutic Trials to Assess Recovery.

Rationale: Uncertainty regarding the natural history of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) led to difficulty in efficacy endpoint selection for therapeutic trials. Capturing outcomes that occur after hospital discharge may improve assessment of clinical recovery among hospitalized patients with COVID-19. Objectives: Evaluate 90-day clinical course of patients hospitalized with COVID-19, comparing three distinct definitions of recovery. Methods: We used pooled data from three clinical trials of neutralizing monoclonal antibodies to compare: 1) the hospital discharge approach; 2) the TICO (Therapeutics for Inpatients with COVID-19) trials sustained recovery approach; and 3) a comprehensive approach. At the time of enrollment, all patients were hospitalized in a non-ICU setting without organ failure or major extrapulmonary manifestations of COVID-19. We defined discordance as a difference between time to recovery. Measurements and Main Results: Discordance between the hospital discharge and comprehensive approaches occurred in 170 (20%) of 850 enrolled participants, including 126 hospital readmissions and 24 deaths after initial hospital discharge. Discordant participants were older (median age, 68 vs. 59 years; P < 0.001) and more had a comorbidity (84% vs. 70%; P < 0.001). Of 170 discordant participants, 106 (62%) had postdischarge events captured by the TICO approach. Conclusions: Among patients hospitalized with COVID-19, 20% had clinically significant postdischarge events within 90 days after randomization in patients who would be considered "recovered" using the hospital discharge approach. Using the TICO approach balances length of follow-up with practical limitations. However, clinical trials of COVID-19 therapeutics should use follow-up times up to 90 days to assess clinical recovery more accurately.

The Association of Baseline Plasma SARS-CoV-2 Nucleocapsid Antigen Level and Outcomes in Patients Hospitalized With COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Levels of plasma SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid (N) antigen may be an important biomarker in patients with COVID-19 and enhance our understanding of the pathogenesis of COVID-19. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether levels of plasma antigen can predict short-term clinical outcomes and identify clinical and viral factors associated with plasma antigen levels in hospitalized patients with SARS-CoV-2. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study of baseline plasma antigen level from 2540 participants enrolled in the TICO (Therapeutics for Inpatients With COVID-19) platform trial from August 2020 to November 2021, with additional data on day 5 outcome and time to discharge. SETTING: 114 centers in 10 countries. PARTICIPANTS: Adults hospitalized for acute SARS-CoV-2 infection with 12 days or less of symptoms. MEASUREMENTS: Baseline plasma viral N antigen level was measured at a central laboratory. Delta variant status was determined from baseline nasal swabs using reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction. Associations between baseline patient characteristics and viral factors and baseline plasma antigen levels were assessed using both unadjusted and multivariable modeling. Association between elevated baseline antigen level of 1000 ng/L or greater and outcomes, including worsening of ordinal pulmonary scale at day 5 and time to hospital discharge, were evaluated using logistic regression and Fine-Gray regression models, respectively. RESULTS: Plasma antigen was below the level of quantification in 5% of participants at enrollment, and 1000 ng/L or greater in 57%. Baseline pulmonary severity of illness was strongly associated with plasma antigen level, with mean plasma antigen level 3.10-fold higher among those requiring noninvasive ventilation or high-flow nasal cannula compared with room air (95% CI, 2.22 to 4.34). Plasma antigen level was higher in those who lacked antispike antibodies (6.42 fold; CI, 5.37 to 7.66) and in those with the Delta variant (1.73 fold; CI, 1.41 to 2.13). Additional factors associated with higher baseline antigen level included male sex, shorter time since hospital admission, decreased days of remdesivir, and renal impairment. In contrast, race, ethnicity, body mass index, and immunocompromising conditions were not associated with plasma antigen levels. Plasma antigen level of 1000 ng/L or greater was associated with a markedly higher odds of worsened pulmonary status at day 5 (odds ratio, 5.06 [CI, 3.41 to 7.50]) and longer time to hospital discharge (median, 7 vs. 4 days; subhazard ratio, 0.51 [CI, 0.45 to 0.57]), with subhazard ratios similar across all levels of baseline pulmonary severity. LIMITATIONS: Plasma samples were drawn at enrollment, not hospital presentation. No point-of-care test to measure plasma antigen is currently available. CONCLUSION: Elevated plasma antigen is highly associated with both severity of pulmonary illness and clinically important patient outcomes. Multiple clinical and viral factors are associated with plasma antigen level at presentation. These data support a potential role of ongoing viral replication in the pathogenesis of SARS-CoV-2 in hospitalized patients. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: U.S. government Operation Warp Speed and National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

No overall impact on rate of weight gain with integrase inhibitor-containing regimens in antiretroviral-naïve adults.

OBJECTIVES: Integrase strand transfer inhibitors (INSTIs) are commonplace in modern antiretroviral therapy (ART). Increased weight gain with their use is increasingly scrutinized. We evaluated weight changes in treatment-naïve adults with HIV-1 attending a UK centre who started regimens including raltegravir or dolutegravir. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study of adults prescribed an INSTI between January 2015 and March 2020 were categorized as having started an ART regimen containing raltegravir, dolutegravir, a protease inhibitor or a nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor. Individuals with one or more weight measurement ≤ 5 years both pre- and post-ART initiation, who started a three-drug regimen with ≥ 6 months duration and achieved virological suppression (< 50 copies/mL) within 6 months were included. A random effects model with linear slope pre- and post-ART was used, adjusting for age, gender, ethnicity, ART regimen, backbone and year of initiation. RESULTS: The cohort included 390 adults; 88.7% were male, 66.4% were of white ethnicity, their median age was 40 years, there was a median of six weight measurements, 2.2 years from diagnosis to ART initiation, 2.9 years from ART to the last weight measurement, and weight and body mass index at initiation were 75 kg and 24.1 kg/m2 respectively. Of these, 254 (65%) started an INSTI. The average pre-ART rate of weight gain was 0.44 kg/year [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.19-0.70], increasing to 0.88 kg/year (0.63-1.10, p = 0.04) after ART initiation. Our adjusted model found no evidence of an association between ART regimen and rate of weight gain. CONCLUSIONS: Weight increased in the cohort both pre- and post-ART. We found no evidence of a higher rate of weight gain following ART initiation with an INSTI compared with other regimens.

Design and implementation of an international, multi-arm, multi-stage platform master protocol for trials of novel SARS-CoV-2 antiviral agents: Therapeutics for Inpatients with COVID-19 (TICO/ACTIV-3).

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Safe and effective therapies for COVID-19 are urgently needed. In order to meet this need, the Accelerating COVID-19 Therapeutic Interventions and Vaccines public-private partnership initiated the Therapeutics for Inpatients with COVID-19. Therapeutics for Inpatients with COVID-19 is a multi-arm, multi-stage platform master protocol, which facilitates the rapid evaluation of the safety and efficacy of novel candidate antiviral therapeutic agents for adults hospitalized with COVID-19. Five agents have so far entered the protocol, with rapid answers already provided for three of these. Other agents are expected to enter the protocol throughout 2021. This protocol contains a number of key design and implementation features that, along with challenges faced by the protocol team, are presented and discussed. METHODS: Three clinical trial networks, encompassing a global network of clinical sites, participated in the protocol development and implementation. Therapeutics for Inpatients with COVID-19 utilizes a multi-arm, multi-stage design with an agile and robust approach to futility and safety evaluation at 300 patients enrolled, with subsequent expansion to full sample size and an expanded target population if the agent shows an acceptable safety profile and evidence of efficacy. Rapid recruitment to multiple agents is enabled through the sharing of placebo, the confining of agent-specific information to protocol appendices, and modular consent forms. In collaboration with the Food and Drug Administration, a thorough safety data collection and Data and Safety Monitoring Board schedule was developed for the study of potential therapeutic agents with limited in-human data in hospitalized patients with COVID-19. RESULTS: As of 8 August 2021, five agents have entered the Therapeutics for Inpatients with COVID-19 master protocol and a total of 1909 participants have been randomized to one of these agents or matching placebo. There were a number of challenges faced by the study team that needed to be overcome in order to successfully implement Therapeutics for Inpatients with COVID-19 across a global network of sites. These included ensuring drug supply and reliable recruitment allowing for changing infection rates across the global network of sites, the need to balance the collection of data and samples without overburdening clinical staff and obtaining regulatory approvals across a global network of sites. CONCLUSION: Through a robust multi-network partnership, the Therapeutics for Inpatients with COVID-19 protocol has been successfully used across a global network of sites for rapid generation of efficacy data on multiple novel antiviral agents. The protocol design and implementation features used in this protocol, and the approaches to address challenges, will have broader applicability. Mechanisms to facilitate improved communication and harmonization among country-specific regulatory bodies are required to achieve the full potential of this approach in dealing with a global outbreak.

Antiretroviral therapy alone versus antiretroviral therapy with a kick and kill approach, on measures of the HIV reservoir in participants with recent HIV infection (the RIVER trial): a phase 2, randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: Antiretroviral therapy (ART) cannot cure HIV infection because of a persistent reservoir of latently infected cells. Approaches that force HIV transcription from these cells, making them susceptible to killing-termed kick and kill regimens-have been explored as a strategy towards an HIV cure. RIVER is the first randomised trial to determine the effect of ART-only versus ART plus kick and kill on markers of the HIV reservoir. METHODS: This phase 2, open-label, multicentre, randomised, controlled trial was undertaken at six clinical sites in the UK. Patients aged 18-60 years who were confirmed as HIV-positive within a maximum of the past 6 months and started ART within 1 month from confirmed diagnosis were randomly assigned by a computer generated randomisation list to receive ART-only (control) or ART plus the histone deacetylase inhibitor vorinostat (the kick) and replication-deficient viral vector T-cell inducing vaccines encoding conserved HIV sequences ChAdV63. HIVconsv-prime and MVA.HIVconsv-boost (the kill; ART + V + V; intervention). The primary endpoint was total HIV DNA isolated from peripheral blood CD4+ T-cells at weeks 16 and 18 after randomisation. Analysis was by intention to treat. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02336074. FINDINGS: Between June 14, 2015 and Jul 11, 2017, 60 men with HIV were randomly assigned to receive either an ART-only (n=30) or an ART + V + V (n=30) regimen; all 60 participants completed the study, with no loss-to-follow-up. Mean total HIV DNA at weeks 16 and 18 after randomisation was 3·02 log10 copies HIV DNA per 106 CD4+ T-cells in the ART-only group versus 3·06 log10 copies HIV DNA per 106 CD4+ T-cells in ART + V + V group, with no statistically significant difference between the two groups (mean difference of 0·04 log10 copies HIV DNA per 106 CD4+ T-cells [95% CI -0·03 to 0·11; p=0·26]). There were no intervention-related serious adverse events. INTERPRETATION: This kick and kill approach conferred no significant benefit compared with ART alone on measures of the HIV reservoir. Although this does not disprove the efficacy kick and kill strategy, for future trials enhancement of both kick and kill agents will be required. FUNDING: Medical Research Council (MR/L00528X/1).

Performance of human papillomavirus DNA detection in residual specimens taken for Chlamydia trachomatis and Neisseria gonorrhoeae nucleic acid amplification testing in men who have sex with men.

OBJECTIVES: Rectal swab specimens, either alone or pooled with first-void urine (FVU) and pharyngeal swab specimens, are used to test for Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) and Neisseria gonorrhoeae (NG) infection in men who have sex with men (MSM). Following introduction of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination for MSM attending UK sexual health services (SHSs), HPV testing of residual CT/NG test specimens has been proposed to monitor HPV prevalence in this population. Performance of HPV detection in such specimens has not been evaluated previously. METHODS: MSM attending a UK SHS provided three specimens: (1) rectal swab for CT/NG, (2) pooled rectal/pharyngeal/FVU specimen for CT/NG and (3) dedicated anal swab for HPV. Specimen 3 and residual material from specimens 1 and 2 were tested for type-specific HPV DNA. HPV detection was by an in-house multiplex PCR and luminex-based genotyping assay. RESULTS: A total of 129 MSM were recruited with a mean age of 38.1 years; 24% were HIV-positive. Of the 129 MSM, 92 (71%) had any type-specific HPV DNA in ≥1 specimen; 80 (62%) had high risk (HR) HPV. Of 123 participants with sufficient residual pooled and dedicated specimens, 70 (56.9%) had detectable HPV on both, and 40 (32.5%) were negative on both; overall concordance was 89% (95% CI 83% to 94%), and kappa statistic was 0.78 (95% CI 0.66 to 0.89). Pooled samples had a 4.1% (95% CI -1.9% to 10.0%) higher test positivity rate than dedicated samples.Of 125 participants with sufficient residual rectal and specimens, 74 (59.2%) had detectable HPV on both, and 36 (28.8%) were negative on both; overall concordance was 88% (95% CI 81% to 93%), and kappa statistic was 0.74 (95% CI 0.61 to 0.86). Residual rectal samples had 5.6% (95%CI -0.6% to 11.8%) higher test positivity than dedicated samples. CONCLUSIONS: We observed high concordance between the dedicated and residual STI test specimens. Our data support the strategy of testing residual specimens for HPV prevalence monitoring in MSM to evaluate the impact of the targeted vaccination programme.

Enhanced Prophylaxis plus Antiretroviral Therapy for Advanced HIV Infection in Africa.

BACKGROUND: In sub-Saharan Africa, among patients with advanced human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, the rate of death from infection (including tuberculosis and cryptococcus) shortly after the initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) is approximately 10%. METHODS: In this factorial open-label trial conducted in Uganda, Zimbabwe, Malawi, and Kenya, we enrolled HIV-infected adults and children 5 years of age or older who had not received previous ART and were starting ART with a CD4+ count of fewer than 100 cells per cubic millimeter. They underwent simultaneous randomization to receive enhanced antimicrobial prophylaxis or standard prophylaxis, adjunctive raltegravir or no raltegravir, and supplementary food or no supplementary food. Here, we report on the effects of enhanced antimicrobial prophylaxis, which consisted of continuous trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole plus at least 12 weeks of isoniazid-pyridoxine (coformulated with trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole in a single fixed-dose combination tablet), 12 weeks of fluconazole, 5 days of azithromycin, and a single dose of albendazole, as compared with standard prophylaxis (trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole alone). The primary end point was 24-week mortality. RESULTS: A total of 1805 patients (1733 adults and 72 children or adolescents) underwent randomization to receive either enhanced prophylaxis (906 patients) or standard prophylaxis (899 patients) and were followed for 48 weeks (loss to follow-up, 3.1%). The median baseline CD4+ count was 37 cells per cubic millimeter, but 854 patients (47.3%) were asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic. In the Kaplan-Meier analysis at 24 weeks, the rate of death with enhanced prophylaxis was lower than that with standard prophylaxis (80 patients [8.9% vs. 108 [12.2%]; hazard ratio, 0.73; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.55 to 0.98; P=0.03); 98 patients (11.0%) and 127 (14.4%), respectively, had died by 48 weeks (hazard ratio, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.58 to 0.99; P=0.04). Patients in the enhanced-prophylaxis group had significantly lower rates of tuberculosis (P=0.02), cryptococcal infection (P=0.01), oral or esophageal candidiasis (P=0.02), death of unknown cause (P=0.03), and new hospitalization (P=0.03). However, there was no significant between-group difference in the rate of severe bacterial infection (P=0.32). There were nonsignificantly lower rates of serious adverse events and grade 4 adverse events in the enhanced-prophylaxis group (P=0.08 and P=0.09, respectively). Rates of HIV viral suppression and adherence to ART were similar in the two groups. CONCLUSIONS: Among HIV-infected patients with advanced immunosuppression, enhanced antimicrobial prophylaxis combined with ART resulted in reduced rates of death at both 24 weeks and 48 weeks without compromising viral suppression or increasing toxic effects. (Funded by the Medical Research Council and others; REALITY Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN43622374 .).

Rash Reading: Rethinking Virginia Woolf's On Being Ill.

Virginia Woolf's On Being Ill (1926) is the first published essay in English on illness in literature. Historically neglected, in recent years rising popular and academic interest in the intersection of illness and the arts has led to a rediscovery of sorts, exemplified by its republication by Paris Press in 2002 and 2012. And yet, in spite of this surge in attention, contemporary writers and scholars routinely undervalue the scope of Woolf's argument about illness and its literary representation. By placing On Being Ill within a wider context of writing and reading illness in the modern and contemporary period, my study opens up hitherto unexplored dimensions of the essay, arguing for a more expansive understanding of the critical and creative interventions it seeks to make, and a new appreciation of its relevance to present day debates around the meaning and value of illness in literature.

Causes and Timing of Mortality and Morbidity Among Late Presenters Starting Antiretroviral Therapy in the REALITY Trial.

Background: In sub-Saharan Africa, 20%-25% of people starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) have severe immunosuppression; approximately 10% die within 3 months. In the Reduction of EArly mortaLITY (REALITY) randomized trial, a broad enhanced anti-infection prophylaxis bundle reduced mortality vs cotrimoxazole. We investigate the contribution and timing of different causes of mortality/morbidity. Methods: Participants started ART with a CD4 count <100 cells/µL; enhanced prophylaxis comprised cotrimoxazole plus 12 weeks of isoniazid + fluconazole, single-dose albendazole, and 5 days of azithromycin. A blinded committee adjudicated events and causes of death as (non-mutually exclusively) tuberculosis, cryptococcosis, severe bacterial infection (SBI), other potentially azithromycin-responsive infections, other events, and unknown. Results: Median pre-ART CD4 count was 37 cells/µL. Among 1805 participants, 225 (12.7%) died by week 48. Fatal/nonfatal events occurred early (median 4 weeks); rates then declined exponentially. One hundred fifty-four deaths had single and 71 had multiple causes, including tuberculosis in 4.5% participants, cryptococcosis in 1.1%, SBI in 1.9%, other potentially azithromycin-responsive infections in 1.3%, other events in 3.6%, and unknown in 5.0%. Enhanced prophylaxis reduced deaths from cryptococcosis and unknown causes (P < .05) but not tuberculosis, SBI, potentially azithromycin-responsive infections, or other causes (P > .3); and reduced nonfatal/fatal tuberculosis and cryptococcosis (P < .05), but not SBI, other potentially azithromycin-responsive infections, or other events (P > .2). Conclusions: Enhanced prophylaxis reduced mortality from cryptococcosis and unknown causes and nonfatal tuberculosis and cryptococcosis. High early incidence of fatal/nonfatal events highlights the need for starting enhanced-prophylaxis with ART in advanced disease. Clinical Trials Registration: ISRCTN43622374.

Using Clinical Research Networks to Assess Severity of an Emerging Influenza Pandemic.

Background: Early clinical severity assessments during the 2009 influenza A H1N1 pandemic (pH1N1) overestimated clinical severity due to selection bias and other factors. We retrospectively investigated how to use data from the International Network for Strategic Initiatives in Global HIV Trials, a global clinical influenza research network, to make more accurate case fatality ratio (CFR) estimates early in a future pandemic, an essential part of pandemic response. Methods: We estimated the CFR of medically attended influenza (CFRMA) as the product of probability of hospitalization given confirmed outpatient influenza and the probability of death given hospitalization with confirmed influenza for the pandemic (2009-2011) and post-pandemic (2012-2015) periods. We used literature survey results on health-seeking behavior to convert that estimate to CFR among all infected persons (CFRAR). Results: During the pandemic period, 5.0% (3.1%-6.9%) of 561 pH1N1-positive outpatients were hospitalized. Of 282 pH1N1-positive inpatients, 8.5% (5.7%-12.6%) died. CFRMA for pH1N1 was 0.4% (0.2%-0.6%) in the pandemic period 2009-2011 but declined 5-fold in young adults during the post-pandemic period compared to the level of seasonal influenza in the post-pandemic period 2012-2015. CFR for influenza-negative patients did not change over time. We estimated the 2009 pandemic CFRAR to be 0.025%, 16-fold lower than CFRMA. Conclusions: Data from a clinical research network yielded accurate pandemic severity estimates, including increased severity among younger people. Going forward, clinical research networks with a global presence and standardized protocols would substantially aid rapid assessment of clinical severity. Clinical Trials Registration: NCT01056354 and NCT01056185

Raltegravir-intensified initial antiretroviral therapy in advanced HIV disease in Africa: A randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: In sub-Saharan Africa, individuals infected with HIV who are severely immunocompromised have high mortality (about 10%) shortly after starting antiretroviral therapy (ART). This group also has the greatest risk of morbidity and mortality associated with immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome (IRIS), a paradoxical response to successful ART. Integrase inhibitors lead to significantly more rapid declines in HIV viral load (VL) than all other ART classes. We hypothesised that intensifying standard triple-drug ART with the integrase inhibitor, raltegravir, would reduce HIV VL faster and hence reduce early mortality, although this strategy could also risk more IRIS events. METHODS AND FINDINGS: In a 2×2×2 factorial open-label parallel-group trial, treatment-naive adults, adolescents, and children >5 years old infected with HIV, with cluster of differentiation 4 (CD4) <100 cells/mm3, from eight urban/peri-urban HIV clinics at regional hospitals in Kenya, Malawi, Uganda, and Zimbabwe were randomised 1:1 to initiate standard triple-drug ART, with or without 12-week raltegravir intensification, and followed for 48 weeks. The primary outcome was 24-week mortality, analysed by intention to treat. Of 2,356 individuals screened for eligibility, 1,805 were randomised between 18 June 2013 and 10 April 2015. Of the 1,805 participants, 961 (53.2%) were male, 72 (4.0%) were children/adolescents, median age was 36 years, CD4 count was 37 cells/mm3, and plasma viraemia was 249,770 copies/mL. Fifty-six participants (3.1%) were lost to follow-up at 48 weeks. By 24 weeks, 97/902 (10.9%) raltegravir-intensified ART versus 91/903 (10.2%) standard ART participants had died (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 1.10 [95% CI 0.82-1.46], p = 0.53), with no evidence of interaction with other randomisations (pheterogeneity > 0.7) and despite significantly greater VL suppression with raltegravir-intensified ART at 4 weeks (343/836 [41.0%] versus 113/841 [13.4%] with standard ART, p < 0.001) and 12 weeks (567/789 [71.9%] versus 415/803 [51.7%] with standard ART, p < 0.001). Through 48 weeks, there was no evidence of differences in mortality (aHR = 0.98 [95% CI 0.76-1.28], p = 0.91); in serious (aHR = 0.99 [0.81-1.21], p = 0.88), grade-4 (aHR = 0.88 [0.71-1.09], p = 0.29), or ART-modifying (aHR = 0.90 [0.63-1.27], p = 0.54) adverse events (the latter occurring in 59 [6.5%] participants with raltegravir-intensified ART versus 66 [7.3%] with standard ART); in events judged compatible with IRIS (occurring in 89 [9.9%] participants with raltegravir-intensified ART versus 86 [9.5%] with standard ART, p = 0.79) or in hospitalisations (aHR = 0.94 [95% CI 0.76-1.17], p = 0.59). At 12 weeks, one and two raltegravir-intensified participants had predicted intermediate-level and high-level raltegravir resistance, respectively. At 48 weeks, the nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI) mutation K219E/Q (p = 0.004) and the non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) mutations K101E/P (p = 0.03) and P225H (p = 0.007) were less common in virus from participants with raltegravir-intensified ART, with weak evidence of less intermediate- or high-level resistance to tenofovir (p = 0.06), abacavir (p = 0.08), and rilpivirine (p = 0.07). Limitations of the study include limited clinical, radiological, and/or microbiological information for some participants, reflecting available services at the centres, and lack of baseline genotypes. CONCLUSIONS: Although 12 weeks of raltegravir intensification was well tolerated and reduced HIV viraemia significantly faster than standard triple-drug ART during the time of greatest risk for early death, this strategy did not reduce mortality or clinical events in this group and is not warranted. There was no excess of IRIS-compatible events, suggesting that integrase inhibitors can be used safely as part of standard triple-drug first-line therapy in severely immunocompromised individuals. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01825031. TRIAL REGISTRATION: International Standard Randomised Controlled Trials Number ISRCTN 43622374.

Reliability, Validity, and Responsiveness of InFLUenza Patient-Reported Outcome (FLU-PRO©) Scores in Influenza-Positive Patients.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the reliability, validity, and responsiveness of InFLUenza Patient-Reported Outcome (FLU-PRO©) scores for quantifying the presence and severity of influenza symptoms. METHODS: An observational prospective cohort study of adults (≥18 years) with influenza-like illness in the United States, the United Kingdom, Mexico, and South America was conducted. Participants completed the 37-item draft FLU-PRO daily for up to 14 days. Item-level and factor analyses were used to remove items and determine factor structure. Reliability of the final tool was estimated using Cronbach α and intraclass correlation coefficients (2-day reliability). Convergent and known-groups validity and responsiveness were assessed using global assessments of influenza severity and return to usual health. RESULTS: Of the 536 patients enrolled, 221 influenza-positive subjects comprised the analytical sample. The mean age of the patients was 40.7 years, 60.2% were women, and 59.7% were white. The final 32-item measure has six factors/domains (nose, throat, eyes, chest/respiratory, gastrointestinal, and body/systemic), with a higher order factor representing symptom severity overall (comparative fit index = 0.92; root mean square error of approximation = 0.06). Cronbach α was high (total = 0.92; domain range = 0.71-0.87); test-retest reliability (intraclass correlation coefficient, day 1-day 2) was 0.83 for total scores and 0.57 to 0.79 for domains. Day 1 FLU-PRO domain and total scores were moderately to highly correlated (≥0.30) with Patient Global Rating of Flu Severity (except nose and throat). Consistent with known-groups validity, scores differentiated severity groups on the basis of global rating (total: F = 57.2, P < 0.001; domains: F = 8.9-67.5, P < 0.001). Subjects reporting return to usual health showed significantly greater (P < 0.05) FLU-PRO score improvement by day 7 than did those who did not, suggesting score responsiveness. CONCLUSIONS: Results suggest that FLU-PRO scores are reliable, valid, and responsive to change in influenza-positive adults.

Analysis of an ordinal endpoint for use in evaluating treatments for severe influenza requiring hospitalization.

Background/Aims A single best endpoint for evaluating treatments of severe influenza requiring hospitalization has not been identified. A novel six-category ordinal endpoint of patient status is being used in a randomized controlled trial (FLU-Intravenous Immunoglobulin - FLU-IVIG) of intravenous immunoglobulin. We systematically examine four factors regarding the use of this ordinal endpoint that may affect power from fitting a proportional odds model: (1) deviations from the proportional odds assumption which result in the same overall treatment effect as specified in the FLU-IVIG protocol and which result in a diminished overall treatment effect, (2) deviations from the distribution of the placebo group assumed in the FLU-IVIG design, (3) the effect of patient misclassification among the six categories, and (4) the number of categories of the ordinal endpoint. We also consider interactions between the treatment effect (i.e. factor 1) and each other factor. Methods We conducted a Monte Carlo simulation study to assess the effect of each factor. To study factor 1, we developed an algorithm for deriving distributions of the ordinal endpoint in the two treatment groups that deviated from proportional odds while maintaining the same overall treatment effect. For factor 2, we considered placebo group distributions which were more or less skewed than the one specified in the FLU-IVIG protocol by adding or subtracting a constant from the cumulative log odds. To assess factor 3, we added misclassification between adjacent pairs of categories that depend on subjective patient/clinician assessments. For factor 4, we collapsed some categories into single categories. Results Deviations from proportional odds reduced power at most from 80% to 77% given the same overall treatment effect as specified in the FLU-IVIG protocol. Misclassification and collapsing categories can reduce power by over 40 and 10 percentage points, respectively, when they affect categories with many patients and a discernible treatment effect. But collapsing categories that contain no treatment effect can raise power by over 20 percentage points. Differences in the distribution of the placebo group can raise power by over 20 percentage points or reduce power by over 40 percentage points depending on how patients are shifted to portions of the ordinal endpoint with a large treatment effect. Conclusion Provided that the overall treatment effect is maintained, deviations from proportional odds marginally reduce power. However, deviations from proportional odds can modify the effect of misclassification, the number of categories, and the distribution of the placebo group on power. In general, adjacent pairs of categories with many patients should be kept separate to help ensure that power is maintained at the pre-specified level.

Maraviroc, as a Switch Option, in HIV-1-infected Individuals With Stable, Well-controlled HIV Replication and R5-tropic Virus on Their First Nucleoside/Nucleotide Reverse Transcriptase Inhibitor Plus Ritonavir-boosted Protease Inhibitor Regimen: Week 48 Results of the Randomized, Multicenter MARCH Study.

BACKGROUND: Alternative combination antiretroviral therapies in virologically suppressed human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients experiencing side effects and/or at ongoing risk of important comorbidities from current therapy are needed. Maraviroc (MVC), a chemokine receptor 5 antagonist, is a potential alternative component of therapy in those with R5-tropic virus. METHODS: The Maraviroc Switch Study is a randomized, multicenter, 96-week, open-label switch study in HIV type 1-infected adults with R5-tropic virus, virologically suppressed on a ritonavir-boosted protease inhibitor (PI/r) plus double nucleoside/nucleotide reverse transcriptase inhibitor (2 N(t)RTI) backbone. Participants were randomized 1:2:2 to current combination antiretroviral therapy (control), or replacing the protease inhibitor (MVC + 2 N(t)RTI arm) or the nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor backbone (MVC + PI/r arm) with twice-daily MVC. The primary endpoint was the difference (switch minus control) in proportion with plasma viral load (VL) <200 copies/mL at 48 weeks. The switch arms were judged noninferior if the lower limit of the 95% confidence interval (CI) for the difference in the primary endpoint was < -12% in the intention-to-treat (ITT) population. RESULTS: The ITT population comprised 395 participants (control, n = 82; MVC + 2 N(t)RTI, n = 156; MVC + PI/r, n = 157). Baseline characteristics were well matched. At week 48, noninferior rates of virological suppression were observed in those switching away from a PI/r (93.6% [95% CI, -9.0% to 2.2%] and 91.7% [95% CI, -9.6% to 3.8%] with VL <200 and <50 copies/mL, respectively) compared to the control arm (97.6% and 95.1% with VL <200 and <50 copies/mL, respectively). In contrast, MVC + PI/r did not meet noninferiority bounds and was significantly inferior (84.1% [95% CI, -19.8% to -5.8%] and 77.7% [95% CI, -24.9% to -8.4%] with VL <200 and <50 copies/mL, respectively) to the control arm in the ITT analysis. CONCLUSIONS: These data support MVC as a switch option for ritonavir-boosted PIs when partnered with a 2-N(t)RTI backbone, but not as part of N(t)RTI-sparing regimens comprising MVC with PI/r. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT01384682.