Palaeoecological data indicates land-use changes across Europe linked to spatial heterogeneity in mortality during the Black Death pandemic.

The Black Death (1347-1352 CE) is the most renowned pandemic in human history, believed by many to have killed half of Europe's population. However, despite advances in ancient DNA research that conclusively identified the pandemic's causative agent (bacterium Yersinia pestis), our knowledge of the Black Death remains limited, based primarily on qualitative remarks in medieval written sources available for some areas of Western Europe. Here, we remedy this situation by applying a pioneering new approach, 'big data palaeoecology', which, starting from palynological data, evaluates the scale of the Black Death's mortality on a regional scale across Europe. We collected pollen data on landscape change from 261 radiocarbon-dated coring sites (lakes and wetlands) located across 19 modern-day European countries. We used two independent methods of analysis to evaluate whether the changes we see in the landscape at the time of the Black Death agree with the hypothesis that a large portion of the population, upwards of half, died within a few years in the 21 historical regions we studied. While we can confirm that the Black Death had a devastating impact in some regions, we found that it had negligible or no impact in others. These inter-regional differences in the Black Death's mortality across Europe demonstrate the significance of cultural, ecological, economic, societal and climatic factors that mediated the dissemination and impact of the disease. The complex interplay of these factors, along with the historical ecology of plague, should be a focus of future research on historical pandemics.

Forest carbon sink neutralized by pervasive growth-lifespan trade-offs.

Land vegetation is currently taking up large amounts of atmospheric CO2, possibly due to tree growth stimulation. Extant models predict that this growth stimulation will continue to cause a net carbon uptake this century. However, there are indications that increased growth rates may shorten trees' lifespan and thus recent increases in forest carbon stocks may be transient due to lagged increases in mortality. Here we show that growth-lifespan trade-offs are indeed near universal, occurring across almost all species and climates. This trade-off is directly linked to faster growth reducing tree lifespan, and not due to covariance with climate or environment. Thus, current tree growth stimulation will, inevitably, result in a lagged increase in canopy tree mortality, as is indeed widely observed, and eventually neutralise carbon gains due to growth stimulation. Results from a strongly data-based forest simulator confirm these expectations. Extant Earth system model projections of global forest carbon sink persistence are likely too optimistic, increasing the need to curb greenhouse gas emissions.

Uncertainties in the role of land vegetation in the carbon cycle.

Since the late 1950s the CO2 concentration of the atmosphere has been increasing by around 0.5-3 ppm per year. Understanding of carbon sinks is vital to understanding this trend and its future behaviour. Here we examine some of the factors which may affect the proportion of anthropogenic CO2 ending up in the atmosphere in the present and in the future, and variability in the CO2 increase from one year to another. We also examine the evidence for the potential of terrestrial ecosystem carbon sinks to take up or release CO2. In some cases, a careful re-examination of the research methods used to deduce present and future feedbacks may be necessary. The most advanced technology and the most complex models do not necessarily produce reliable results. They should be carefully checked against a general background knowledge of ecological processes before their results are accepted.

Winter North Atlantic oscillation effects on the tree rings of the Italian beech (Fagus sylvatica L.).

Climatic signals in beech tree-ring width series from Central Italy have been studied over different periods of time. Prewhitened tree-ring chronologies respond mainly to summer precipitation and they do not correlate in a significant manner with the winter North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) index. In this high-frequency pattern the NAO signs are only found on a small number of rings characterized by being very narrow or wide. By contrast, tree-ring width chronologies in which all the frequency components are conserved were significantly related to the NAO. The significant inverse correlation between actual measurements of ring width and NAO is a consequence of the availability of water in the soil at the beginning of the growing season. In fact, in the Mediterranean area the recharging of soil moisture depends on the amount of winter precipitation, which is inversely correlated with the NAO. Strong signals of winter precipitation and NAO are found in the low-frequency components of tree-ring growth.

Determination of inulin in plasma and urine by reversed-phase high-performance liquid chromatography.

We report a new HPLC procedure for measuring inulin in plasma and urine. Samples after dilution are boiled in mild acidic conditions and then analyzed on a C18 column. Solvent system A is 3.2 mM HCl, pH 2.5, and B is acetonitrile-3.2 mM HCl (60:40, v/v), pH 2.5. The separation is carried out in 8 min with a flow-rate of 1.0 ml/min and the absorbance monitored at 280 nm. The relationship between inulin and the recorded peak area is linear from 0.2 to 3.2 mg/ml with a correlation coefficient of 0.999 for plasma and 0.999 for urine. Within-run precision, measured at three inulin concentrations, ranged from 0.9 to 1.7% in plasma and from 0.8 to 1.2% in urine. Between-run precision varied in plasma from 2.7 to 3.2% and in urine from 3.0 to 3.3%. Analytical recovery ranged from 102 to 107% in plasma and from 101 to 105% in urine, respectively. The method is sensitive, selective and only 30-microliters samples are required. Therefore, it could be used to evaluate the glomerular filtration rate even in small babies and to perform studies in animals.