Budget impact analysis of a machine learning algorithm to predict high risk of atrial fibrillation among primary care patients.

AIMS: We investigated whether the use of an atrial fibrillation (AF) risk prediction algorithm could improve AF detection compared with opportunistic screening in primary care and assessed the associated budget impact. METHODS AND RESULTS: Eligible patients were registered with a general practice in UK, aged 65 years or older in 2018/19, and had complete data for weight, height, body mass index, and systolic and diastolic blood pressure recorded within 1 year. Three screening scenarios were assessed: (i) opportunistic screening and diagnosis (standard care); (ii) standard care replaced by the use of the algorithm; and (iii) combined use of standard care and the algorithm. The analysis considered a 3-year time horizon, and the budget impact for the National Health Service (NHS) costs alone or with personal social services (PSS) costs. Scenario 1 would identify 79 410 new AF cases (detection gap reduced by 22%). Scenario 2 would identify 70 916 (gap reduced by 19%) and Scenario 3 would identify 99 267 new cases (gap reduction 27%). These rates translate into 2639 strokes being prevented in Scenario 1, 2357 in Scenario 2, and 3299 in Scenario 3. The 3-year NHS budget impact of Scenario 1 would be £45.3 million, £3.6 million (difference ‒92.0%) with Scenario 2, and £46.3 million (difference 2.2%) in Scenario 3, but for NHS plus PSS would be ‒£48.8 million, ‒£80.4 million (64.8%), and ‒£71.3 million (46.1%), respectively. CONCLUSION: Implementation of an AF risk prediction algorithm alongside standard opportunistic screening could close the AF detection gap and prevent strokes while substantially reducing NHS and PSS combined care costs.

G-Quadruplex Assembly by Ribosomal DNA: Emerging Roles in Disease Pathogenesis and Cancer Biology.

Unique repetitive elements of the eukaryotic genome can be problematic for cellular DNA replication and transcription and pose a source of genomic instability. Human ribosomal DNA (rDNA) exists as repeating units clustered together on several chromosomes. Understanding the molecular mechanisms whereby rDNA interferes with normal genome homeostasis is the subject of this review. We discuss the instability of rDNA as a driver of senescence and the important roles of helicases to suppress its deleterious effects. The propensity of rDNA that is rich in guanine bases to form G-quadruplexes (G4) is discussed and evaluated in disease pathogenesis. Targeting G4 in the ribosomes and other chromosomal loci may represent a useful synthetic lethal approach to combating cancer.

Population impact of direct-acting antiviral treatment on new presentations of hepatitis C-related decompensated cirrhosis: a national record-linkage study.

OBJECTIVE: Population-based studies demonstrating the clinical impact of interferon-free direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapies are lacking. We examined the impact of the introduction of DAAs on HCV-related decompensated cirrhosis (DC) through analysis of population-based data from Scotland. DESIGN: Through analysis of national surveillance data (involving linkage of HCV diagnosis and clinical databases to hospital and deaths registers), we determined i) the scale-up in the number of patients treated and achieving a sustained viral response (SVR), and ii) the change in the trend of new presentations with HCV-related DC, with the introduction of DAAs. RESULTS: Approximately 11 000 patients had been treated in Scotland over the 8-year period 2010/11 to 2017/18. The scale-up in the number of patients achieving SVR between the pre-DAA and DAA eras was 2.3-fold overall and 5.9-fold among those with compensated cirrhosis (the group at immediate risk of developing DC). In the pre-DAA era, the annual number of HCV-related DC presentations increased 4.6-fold between 2000 (30) and 2014 (142). In the DAA era, presentations decreased by 51% to 69 in 2018 (and by 67% among those with chronic infection at presentation), representing a significant change in trend (rate ratio 0.88, 95% CI 0.85 to 0.90). With the introduction of DAAs, an estimated 330 DC cases had been averted during 2015-18. CONCLUSIONS: National scale-up in interferon-free DAA treatment is associated with the rapid downturn in presentations of HCV-related DC at the population-level. Major progress in averting HCV-related DC in the short-term is feasible, and thus other countries should strive to achieve the same.

Real-world utility of HCV core antigen as an alternative to HCV RNA testing: Implications for viral load and genotype.

Following positive serology, the gold standard confirmatory test of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is detection of HCV RNA by PCR. We assessed the utility of HCV core antigen testing to identify active infection among those positive for anti-HCV antibodies, when introduced to routine testing. We identified serum samples that were tested at a single laboratory in Scotland from June 2011to December 2017. Serum samples testing positive for HCV antibodies (HCV Ab positive) followed by reflex HCV core antigen (Ag) testing during the study period were identified. Those patients for whom a PCR test was requested on the baseline sample were also identified. For this group, the sensitivity and specificity of HCV Ag as a diagnostic tool were assessed using HCV PCR as gold standard. In our cohort of 744 patients, we demonstrated a sensitivity of 82.1% (95% CI 77.1%-86.2%) and a specificity of 99.8% (95% CI 98.6%-100%). Genotype 3 was associated with increased odds of a false-negative result (OR = 3.59, 95% CI: 1.32-9.71), and reduced odds of a false negative were associated with older age (odds ratio (OR)=0.92, 95% CI: 0.88-0.97 per year) and viral load (OR = 0.10, 95% CI: 0.05-0.21 per log10 IU/ml). While the implementation of HCV core antigen testing for diagnosis could lead to significant cost savings in national screening programmes, our data suggest that a significant proportion of HCV-infected individuals may be missed. These findings have implications for HCV diagnosis and determination of viral clearance after treatment, particularly in low- and middle-income regions, where genotype 3 is prevalent.

Real-world impact following initiation of interferon-free hepatitis C regimens on liver-related outcomes and all-cause mortality among patients with compensated cirrhosis.

Few studies have investigated clinical outcomes among patients with cirrhosis who were treated with interferon (IFN)-free direct-acting antiviral (DAA). We aimed to quantify treatment impact on first decompensated cirrhosis hospital admission, first hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) admission, liver-related mortality and all-cause mortality among a national cohort of cirrhotic patients. Through record linkage between Scotland's HCV Clinical Database and inpatient/day-case hospitalization and deaths records, a study population comprising chronic HCV-infected patients with compensated cirrhosis and initiated on IFN-free DAA between 1 March 2013 and 31 March 2018 was analysed. Cox regression evaluated the association of each clinical outcome with time-dependent treatment status (on treatment, responder, nonresponder or noncompliant), adjusting for patient factors including Child-Pugh class. Among the study population (n = 1073) involving 1809 years of follow-up, 75 (7.0%) died (39 from liver-related causes), 47 progressed to decompensated cirrhosis, and 28 developed HCC. Compared with nonresponders, treatment response (96% among those attending their 12 weeks post-treatment SVR test) was associated with a reduced relative risk of decompensated cirrhosis (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.14; 95% CI: 0.05-0.39), HCC (HR = 0.17; 95% CI: 0.04-0.79), liver-related death (HR = 0.13; 95% CI: 0.05-0.34) and all-cause mortality (HR = 0.30; 95% CI: 0.12-0.76). Compared with responders, noncompliant patients had an increased risk of liver-related (HR = 6.73; 95% CI: 2.99-15.1) and all-cause (HR = 5.45; 95% CI: 3.07-9.68) mortality. For HCV patients with cirrhosis, a treatment response was associated with a lower risk of severe liver complications and improved survival. Our findings suggest additional effort is warranted to address the higher mortality among the minority of cirrhotic patients who do not comply with DAA treatment or associated RNA testing.

Baseline HPV prevalence in rectal swabs from men attending a sexual health clinic in Scotland: assessing the potential impact of a selective HPV vaccination programme for men who have sex with men.

OBJECTIVES: A human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination programme targeted towards men who have sex with men who are disproportionately affected by HPV anogenital infection and related disease was established in Scotland in July 2017. We aimed to establish a baseline HPV prevalence to assess the potential impact of the programme. METHODS: Residual rectal swabs taken in a sexual health clinic (n=1 248) were tested for the presence of HPV and HPV-type prevalence was collated and stratified by age. Prevalence of HPV types included in the quadrivalent and nonavalent vaccines was specifically assessed. RESULTS: 72.8% (95% CI 70.2% to 75.3%) of swabs were positive for HPV with 59.1% (95% CI 56.3% to 61.9%) of samples positive for at least one high-risk type. A least one of HPV 6, 11, 16 and 18 was detected in approximately half of the swabs. HPV prevalence generally increased with age but did not significantly differ between older age groups. The presence of more than one HPV type increased with age and over half of samples had multiple types present. CONCLUSIONS: While HPV prevalence in this population is high, the potential impact of the vaccination programme is substantial given that 50% are not infected with a vaccine type. Defining a preimmunisation baseline in this group will be important for longitudinal monitoring of impact.

Increased risk of HPV-associated genital cancers in men and women as a consequence of pre-invasive disease.

To assess the excess risk of HPV-associated cancer (HPVaC) in two at-risk groups-women with a previous diagnosis of high grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN3) and both men and women treated for non-cervical pre-invasive anogenital disease. All CIN3 cases diagnosed in 1989-2015 in Scotland were extracted from the Scottish cancer registry (SMR06). All cases of pre-invasive penile, anal, vulval, and vaginal disease diagnosed in 1990-2015 were identified within the NHS pathology databases in the two largest NHS health boards in Scotland. Both were linked to SMR06 to extract subsequent incidence of HPVaC following the diagnosis of CIN3 or pre-invasive disease. Standardised incidence ratios were calculated for the risk of acquiring HPVaC for the two at-risk groups compared to the general Scottish population. Among 69,714 females in Scotland diagnosed with CIN3 (890,360.9 person-years), 179 developed non-cervical HPVaC. CIN3 cases were at 3.2-fold (95% CI: 2.7 to 3.7) increased risk of developing non-cervical HPVaC, compared to the general female population. Among 1,235 patients diagnosed with non-cervical pre-invasive disease (9,667.4 person-years), 47 developed HPVaC. Individuals with non-cervical pre-invasive disease had a substantially increased risk of developing HPVaC - 15.5-fold (95% CI: 11.1 to 21.1) increased risk for females and 28-fold (11.3 to 57.7) increased risk for males. We report a significant additional risk of HPV-associated cancer in those have been diagnosed with pre-invasive HPV-associated lesions including but not confined to the cervix. Uncovering the natural history of pre-invasive disease has potential for determining screening, prevention and treatment.

Novel Approaches for Vaccination Against HPV-Induced Cancers.

To date, more than 5 % of all cancers are as a result of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection, and this incidence is increasing. Early recognition of disease is associated with good survival, but late presentation results in devastating consequences. Prevention is better than cure, and there are now successful prophylactic vaccination programmes in place. We discuss these and the prospect of therapeutic vaccinations in the near future to address a growing need for improved therapeutic options.

HPV status and favourable outcome in vulvar squamous cancer.

It is universally accepted that high-risk human papillomavirus (HR-HPV) is the cause of cervical dysplasia and cancer. More recently, it has been shown that HPV is also a marker of clinical outcome in oropharyngeal cancer. However, contemporary information is lacking on both the prevalence of HPV infection in vulvar cancer (VSCC), its precursor lesion, vulvar intraepithelial neoplasia (VIN) and the influence of HPV-status on the prognosis of this malignancy. We have conducted a detailed population-based study to examine rates of progression of VIN to VSCC, type-specific HPV prevalence in vulvar disease and the influence of HPV status on clinical outcome in VSCC. We observed that the age at which women are diagnosed with VSCC is falling and there is a significant time gap between first diagnosis of VIN and progression to invasive disease. HR-HPV infection was detected in 87% (97/112) cases of VIN and 52% cases (32/62) of VSCC. The presence of HR-HPV in squamous intraepithelial lesion was associated with lower rates of progression to invasive cancer (hazard ratio, 0.22, p = 0.001). In the adjusted analysis, HR-HPV was associated with improved progression-free survival of VSCC compared to those with HPV negative tumours (hazard ratio, 0.32, p = 0.02).

Tuberculosis in healthcare workers, Scotland.

In an attempt to explore healthcare worker acquisition of tuberculosis infection, we conducted population-based surveillance of all cases recorded as healthcare workers reported to Enhanced Surveillance of Mycobacterial Infection from 2000 to 2015. Over the study period, the mean incidence rate of tuberculosis among all healthcare workers was 15.4 per 100,000 healthcare workers. However, the incidence rate of tuberculosis amongst those healthcare workers born outside the UK was 164.8 per 100,000 compared with 5.0 per 100,000 UK-born healthcare workers. Fifty-seven per cent of all non-UK-born healthcare workers were diagnosed within five years of their arrival in the UK and would have been new entrants to the NHS. An effective new entrant occupational health screening programme for latent tuberculosis infection may have prevented some of these active cases of infection.

Development of a cross-cultural HPV community engagement model within Scotland.

OBJECTIVE: To examine cultural barriers and participant solutions regarding acceptance and uptake of the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine from the perspective of Black African, White-Caribbean, Arab, Indian, Bangladeshi and Pakistani young people. METHODS: In total, 40 young people from minority ethnic communities in Scotland took part in a qualitative study, involving seven focus groups and four paired interviews, to explore their views and experiences of the HPV vaccine. Using critical discursive psychology, the analysis focused on young people's accounts of barriers and enablers to information, access and uptake of the HPV vaccination programme. RESULTS: Participants suggested innovative strategies to tackle intergenerational concerns, information design and accessibility, and public health communications across diverse contexts. A cross-cultural community engagement model was developed, embracing diversity and contradiction across different ethnic groups. This included four inter-related strategies: providing targeted and flexible information for young people, vaccine provision across the life-course, intergenerational information and specific cross-cultural communications. CONCLUSION: This is the first HPV cross-cultural model inductively derived from accounts of young people from different ethnic communities. We recommend public health practitioners and policymakers consider using the processes and strategies within this model to increase dialogue around public engagement, awareness and receptivity towards HPV vaccination.

Human Papillomavirus Prevalence and Herd Immunity after Introduction of Vaccination Program, Scotland, 2009-2013.

In 2008, a national human papillomavirus (HPV) immunization program using a bivalent vaccine against HPV types 16 and 18 was implemented in Scotland along with a national surveillance program designed to determine the longitudinal effects of vaccination on HPV infection at the population level. Each year during 2009-2013, the surveillance program conducted HPV testing on a proportion of liquid-based cytology samples from women undergoing their first cervical screening test for precancerous cervical disease. By linking vaccination, cervical screening, and HPV testing data, over the study period we found a decline in HPV types 16 and 18, significant decreases in HPV types 31, 33, and 45 (suggesting cross-protection), and a nonsignificant increase in HPV 51. In addition, among nonvaccinated women, HPV types 16 and 18 infections were significantly lower in 2013 than in 2009. Our results preliminarily indicate herd immunity and sustained effectiveness of the bivalent vaccine on virologic outcomes at the population level.

Population-Level Effects of Human Papillomavirus Vaccination Programs on Infections with Nonvaccine Genotypes.

We analyzed human papillomavirus (HPV) prevalences during prevaccination and postvaccination periods to consider possible changes in nonvaccine HPV genotypes after introduction of vaccines that confer protection against 2 high-risk types, HPV16 and HPV18. Our meta-analysis included 9 studies with data for 13,886 girls and women ≤19 years of age and 23,340 women 20-24 years of age. We found evidence of cross-protection for HPV31 among the younger age group after vaccine introduction but little evidence for reductions of HPV33 and HPV45. For the group this same age group, we also found slight increases in 2 nonvaccine high-risk HPV types (HPV39 and HPV52) and in 2 possible high-risk types (HPV53 and HPV73). However, results between age groups and vaccines used were inconsistent, and the increases had possible alternative explanations; consequently, these data provided no clear evidence for type replacement. Continued monitoring of these HPV genotypes is important.

Use of HPV testing for cervical screening in vaccinated women--Insights from the SHEVa (Scottish HPV Prevalence in Vaccinated Women) study.

The management of cervical disease is changing worldwide as a result of HPV vaccination and the increasing use of HPV testing for cervical screening. However, the impact of vaccination on the performance of HPV based screening strategies is unknown. The SHEVa (Scottish HPV Prevalence in Vaccinated women) projects are designed to gain insight into the impact of vaccination on the performance of clinically validated HPV assays. Samples collated from women attending for first cervical smear who had been vaccinated as part of a national "catch-up" programme were tested with three clinically validated HPV assays (2 DNA and 1 RNA). Overall HR-HPV and type specific positivity was assessed in total population and according to underlying cytology and compared to a demographically equivalent group of unvaccinated women. HPV prevalence was significantly lower in vaccinated women and was influenced by assay-type, reducing by 23-25% for the DNA based assays and 32% for the RNA assay (p = 0.0008). All assays showed over 75% reduction of HPV16 and/or 18 (p < 0.0001) whereas the prevalence of non 16/18 HR-HPV was not significantly different in vaccinated vs unvaccinated women. In women with low grade abnormalities, the proportion associated with non 16/18 HR-HPV was significantly higher in vaccinated women (p < 0.0001). Clinically validated HPV assays are affected differentially when applied to vaccinated women, dependent on assay chemistry. The increased proportion of non HPV16/18 infections may have implications for clinical performance, consequently, longitudinal studies linking HPV status to disease outcomes in vaccinated women are warranted.

Cyclospora infection linked to travel to Mexico, June to September 2015.

Cyclospora cayetanensis was identified in 176 returned travellers from the Riviera Maya region of Mexico between 1 June and 22 September 2015; 79 in the United Kingdom (UK) and 97 in Canada. UK cases completed a food exposure questionnaire. This increase in reported Cyclospora cases highlights risks of gastrointestinal infections through travelling, limitations in Cyclospora surveillance and the need for improved hygiene in the production of food consumed in holiday resorts.

Effects of drinking-water filtration on Cryptosporidium seroepidemiology, Scotland.

Continuous exposure to low levels of Cryptosporidium oocysts is associated with production of protective antibodies. We investigated prevalence of antibodies against the 27-kDa Cryptosporidium oocyst antigen among blood donors in 2 areas of Scotland supplied by drinking water from different sources with different filtration standards: Glasgow (not filtered) and Dundee (filtered). During 2006-2009, seroprevalence and risk factor data were collected; this period includes 2007, when enhanced filtration was introduced to the Glasgow supply. A serologic response to the 27-kDa antigen was found for ≈75% of donors in the 2 cohorts combined. Mixed regression modeling indicated a 32% step-change reduction in seroprevalence of antibodies against Cryptosporidium among persons in the Glasgow area, which was associated with introduction of enhanced filtration treatment. Removal of Cryptosporidium oocysts from water reduces the risk for waterborne exposure, sporadic infections, and outbreaks. Paradoxically, however, oocyst removal might lower immunity and increase the risk for infection from other sources.

A Novel Risk Prediction Score for Clinically Significant Bleeding in Patients Anticoagulated for Venous Thromboembolism with Active Cancer.

BACKGROUND: Cancer-associated venous thromboembolism (Ca-VTE) treatment with anticoagulation is associated with bleeding complications and there are limited data on risk factors. Current models do not provide accurate bleeding risk prediction. METHODS: UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink data (2008-2020) were used to generate a cohort of patients with anticoagulant initiation for first Ca-VTE. Patients were observed up to 180 days for significant bleeding including major bleeding and clinically relevant nonmajor bleeding requiring hospitalization (CRNMB-H). A scoring scheme was developed from sub-distribution hazard ratios, and its discrimination (expressed by the C-statistic) estimated from cross-validation. RESULTS: A total of 15,749 patients with Ca-VTE and anticoagulant treatment were included. In total, 537 significant bleeding events, 161 major bleeds, and 376 CRNMB-H were identified after adjudicated review in 4,914 person-years of observation. Incidence rates of 3.3 and 7.7 per 100 person-years were noted for major bleeding and CRNMB-H. Independent predictors of significant bleeding included cancer of the bladder, central nervous system, cervix, kidney, melanoma, prostate and upper gastrointestinal tract, metastases, minor surgery, minor trauma, and history of major bleeding or CRNMB (before or after the Ca-VTE diagnosis). Patients recognized as low, medium, and high risk (30.4, 56.8, and 1.7% of the population, respectively) had a 6-month significant bleeding incidence rate of 5.1, 19.0, and 56.5 per 100 person-years, respectively. Overall C-statistic for significant bleeding was 0.70 (95% confidence interval: 0.65-0.75), and 0.76 (0.68-0.84) and 0.67 (0.61-0.73) for major bleeding and for CRNMB-H, respectively. CONCLUSION: This risk score may identify patients at risk of significant bleeding, while also helping to determine treatment duration.

Delay and Pay? Healthcare Costs Associated with Late Oral Anti-coagulant Prescribing in People with Atrial Fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with increased morbidity and mortality and exerts an increasingly significant burden on global healthcare resources, with its prevalence rising with an ageing population. Despite a substantial thromboembolic risk, particularly in the period immediately following diagnosis, oral anti-coagulation is frequently not initiated or is delayed. The aim of this study was to evaluate healthcare costs in people with AF, comparing those who were commenced on oral anti-coagulation in the immediate period following the index diagnosis date with those in whom initiation was late and those who never started anti-coagulation. METHODS: This retrospective cost analysis used linked Scottish health data to identify adults newly diagnosed with AF between January 1st 2012 and April 30th 2019 with a baseline CHA2DS2-VASc score of ≥ 2. This AF population was sub-divided according to timing of the first prescription of oral anti-coagulant (OAC) during a 2-year follow-up period: never started (OAC never initiated), immediate OAC (OAC prescribed within 60 days of incident AF diagnosis), and delayed OAC (OAC prescribed more than 60 days after incident AF diagnosis). A two-part model was developed, adjusted for key covariates, including age, sex, and frailty, to estimate costs for inpatient admissions, outpatient care, prescriptions, and care home admissions, and overall costs. RESULTS: Of an overall AF population of 54,385, 26,805 (49.3%) never commenced OAC, 7654 (14.1%) initiated an OAC late, and 19,926 (36.6%) were prescribed anti-coagulation immediately. The mean adjusted cost for the overall AF population was £7807 per person per year (unadjusted: £8491). Delayed OAC initiation was associated with the greatest adjusted estimated mean annual cost (unadjusted: £13,983; adjusted: £9763), compared to those that never started (unadjusted: £10,433; adjusted: £7981) and those that received an immediate OAC prescription (unadjusted: £3976; adjusted: £6621). Increasing frailty, mortality, and female sex were associated with greater healthcare costs. CONCLUSION: AF is associated with significant healthcare resource utilisation and costs, particularly in the context of delayed or non-initiation of anti-coagulation. Indeed, there exists substantial opportunity to improve the utilisation and prompt initiation in people newly diagnosed with AF in Scotland. Interventions to mitigate against the growing economic burden of AF should focus on reducing admissions to hospitals and care homes, which are the principal drivers of costs; prescriptions and outpatient appointments account for a relatively small proportion of overall costs for AF.