Prediction of Severe Baseline Asymptomatic Carotid Stenosis and Subsequent Risk of Stroke and Cardiovascular Disease.

BACKGROUND: Risk models to identify patients at high risk of asymptomatic carotid artery stenosis (ACAS) can help in selecting patients for screening, but long-term outcomes in these patients are unknown. We assessed the diagnostic and prognostic value of the previously published Prevalence of ACAS (PACAS) risk model to detect ACAS at baseline and to predict subsequent risk of stroke and cardiovascular disease (CVD) during follow-up. METHODS: We validated the discrimination and calibration of the PACAS risk model to detect severe (≥70% narrowing) ACAS with patients from the Reduction of Atherothrombosis for Continued Health registry. We subsequently calculated the incidence rates of stroke and CVD (fatal and nonfatal stroke or myocardial infarction or vascular death) during follow-up in 4 risk groups (low, medium, high, and very high, corresponding to sum scores of ≤9, 10-13, 14-17, and ≥18, respectively). RESULTS: Among 26 384 patients, aged between 45 and 80 years, without prior carotid procedures, 1662 (6.3%) had severe baseline ACAS. During ≈70 000 patient-years of follow-up, 1124 strokes and 2484 CVD events occurred. Discrimination of the PACAS model was 0.67 (95% CI, 0.65-0.68), and calibration showed adequate concordance between predicted and observed risks of severe baseline ACAS after recalibration. Significantly higher incidence rates of stroke (Ptrend<0.011) and CVD (Ptrend<0.0001) during follow-up were found with increasing PACAS risk groups. Among patients with high PACAS sum score of ≥14 (corresponding to 27.7% of all patients), severe baseline ACAS prevalence was 11.4%. In addition, 56.6% of incident strokes and 64.9% of incident CVD events occurred in this group. CONCLUSIONS: The PACAS risk model can reliably identify patients at high risk of severe baseline ACAS. Incidence rates of stroke and CVD during follow-up were significantly higher in patients with high PACAS sum scores. Selective screening of patients with high PACAS sum scores may help to prevent future stroke or CVD.

Interleukin-6 Predicts Carotid Plaque Severity, Vulnerability, and Progression.

BACKGROUND: IL-6 (interleukin-6) has important roles in atherosclerosis pathophysiology. To determine if anti-IL-6 therapy warrants evaluation as an adjuvant stroke prevention strategy in patients with carotid atherosclerosis, we tested whether circulating IL-6 levels predict carotid plaque severity, vulnerability, and progression in the prospective population-based CHS (Cardiovascular Health Study). METHODS: Duplex carotid ultrasound was performed at baseline and 5 years. Baseline plaque severity was scored 0 to 5 based on North American Symptomatic Carotid Endarterectomy Trial grade of stenosis. Plaque vulnerability at baseline was the presence of markedly irregular, ulcerated, or echolucent plaques. Plaque progression at 5 years was a ≥1 point increase in stenosis severity. The relationship of baseline plasma IL-6 levels with plaque characteristics was modeled using multivariable linear (severity) or logistic (vulnerability and progression) regression. Risk factors of atherosclerosis were included as independent variables. Stepwise backward elimination was used with P>0.05 for variable removal. To assess model stability, we computed the E-value or minimum strength of association (odds ratio scale) that unmeasured confounders must have with log IL-6 and the outcome to suppress the association. We performed internal validation with 100 bootstrap samples. RESULTS: There were 4334 participants with complete data (58.9% women, mean age: 72.7±5.1 years), including 1267 (29.2%) with vulnerable plaque and 1474 (34.0%) with plaque progression. Log IL-6 predicted plaque severity (ß=0.09, P=1.3×10-3), vulnerability (OR, 1.21 [95% CI, 1.05-1.40]; P=7.4×10-3, E-value=1.71), and progression (OR, 1.44 [95% CI, 1.23-1.69], P=9.1×10-6, E-value 2.24). In participants with >50% predicted probability of progression, mean log IL-6 was 0.54 corresponding to 2.0 pg/mL. Dichotomizing IL-6 levels did not affect the performance of prediction models. CONCLUSIONS: Circulating IL-6 predicts carotid plaque severity, vulnerability, and progression. The 2.0 pg/mL cutoff could facilitate the selection of individuals that would benefit from anti-IL-6 drugs for stroke prevention.

Temporal Trends and Determinants of Stroke Risk in Patients With Medically Treated Asymptomatic Carotid Stenosis.

BACKGROUND: Effectiveness of carotid procedures (surgery and stenting) in patients with asymptomatic carotid artery stenosis (ACAS) depends on the absolute risk reduction that patients might receive from these procedures. We aimed to quantify the risk of ipsilateral ischemic stroke and examined temporal trends and determinants of these risks in patients with ACAS treated conservatively. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review from inception to March 9, 2023, of peer-reviewed trials and cohort studies describing ipsilateral ischemic stroke risk in medically treated patients with ACAS of ≥50%. Risk of bias was assessed with an adapted version of the Quality in Prognosis Studies tool. We calculated the annual incidence rates of ipsilateral ischemic stroke. We explored temporal trends and associations of sex and degree of stenosis with ipsilateral ischemic stroke using Poisson metaregression analysis and incidence rate ratios, respectively. RESULTS: After screening 5915 reports, 73 studies describing ipsilateral ischemic stroke rates of 28 625 patients with midyear of recruitment ranging from 1976 to 2014 were included. The incidence of ipsilateral ischemic stroke was 0.98 (95% CI, 0.93-1.04) per 100 patient-years (median duration of follow-up, 3.3 years). The incidence decreased 24% with every 5 years more recent midyear of recruitment (rate ratio, 0.76 [95% CI, 0.73-0.78]). Incidence rates of ipsilateral ischemic stroke were lower in female patients (rate ratio, 0.74 [95% CI, 0.63-0.87]) and in patients with moderate versus severe stenosis when assessed in cohort studies, with incidence rate ratios of 0.41 ([95% CI, 0.35-0.49] cutoff, 70%) and 0.42 ([95% CI, 0.30-0.59] cutoff, 80%). CONCLUSIONS: Reported risks of ipsilateral ischemic stroke in patients with ACAS have declined 24% every 5 years from mid-1970s onward, further challenging the routine use of carotid procedures. Risks were lower in female patients and more than twice as high with severe compared with moderate ACAS. Inclusion of these findings in individualized risk assessment can help to determine the benefit of carotid procedures in selected individual patients with ACAS. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/; Unique identifier: CRD42021222940.

Risks of Stroke and Heart Disease Following Hysterectomy and Oophorectomy in Chinese Premenopausal Women.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the long-term risks of stroke and ischemic heart disease (IHD) in women who had a hysterectomy alone (HA) or with bilateral oophorectomy (HBO) for benign diseases, particularly in China where the burden of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) is high. We assessed mean levels of cardiovascular risk factors and relative risks of stroke and IHD in Chinese women who had a HA or HBO. METHODS: A total of 302 510 women, aged 30 to 79 years were enrolled in the China Kadoorie Biobank from 2004 to 2008 and followed up for a mean of 9.8 years. The analysis involved premenopausal women without prior cardiovascular disease or cancer at enrollment. We calculated adjusted hazard ratios for incident cases of CVD and their pathological types (ischemic stroke, hemorrhagic stroke, and IHD) after HA and HBO. Analyses were stratified by age and region and adjusted for levels of education, household income, smoking status, alcohol consumption, physical activity, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, diabetes, self-reported health, and number of pregnancies. RESULTS: Among 282 722 eligible women, 8478 had HA, and 1360 had HBO. Women who had HA had 9% higher risk of CVD after HA (hazard ratio, 1.09 [95% CI, 1.06-1.12]) and 19% higher risk of CVD after HBO (1.19 [95% CI, 1.12-1.26]) compared with women who did not. Both HA and HBO were associated with higher risks of ischemic stroke and IHD but not with hemorrhagic stroke. The relative risks of CVD associated with HA and HBO were more extreme at younger age of surgery. CONCLUSIONS: Women who had either HA or HBO have higher risks of ischemic stroke and IHD, and these risks should be evaluated when discussing these interventions. Additional screening for risk factors for CVD should be considered in women following HA and HBO operations, especially if such operations are performed at younger age.

External Validation of Risk Prediction Models to Improve Selection of Patients for Carotid Endarterectomy.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The net benefit of carotid endarterectomy (CEA) is determined partly by the risk of procedural stroke or death. Current guidelines recommend CEA if 30-day risks are <6% for symptomatic stenosis and <3% for asymptomatic stenosis. We aimed to identify prediction models for procedural stroke or death after CEA and to externally validate these models in a large registry of patients from the United States. METHODS: We conducted a systematic search in MEDLINE and EMBASE for prediction models of procedural outcomes after CEA. We validated these models with data from patients who underwent CEA in the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (2011-2017). We assessed discrimination using C statistics and calibration graphically. We determined the number of patients with predicted risks that exceeded recommended thresholds of procedural risks to perform CEA. RESULTS: After screening 788 reports, 15 studies describing 17 prediction models were included. Nine were developed in populations including both asymptomatic and symptomatic patients, 2 in symptomatic and 5 in asymptomatic populations. In the external validation cohort of 26 293 patients who underwent CEA, 702 (2.7%) developed a stroke or died within 30-days. C statistics varied between 0.52 and 0.64 using all patients, between 0.51 and 0.59 using symptomatic patients, and between 0.49 to 0.58 using asymptomatic patients. The Ontario Carotid Endarterectomy Registry model that included symptomatic status, diabetes, heart failure, and contralateral occlusion as predictors, had C statistic of 0.64 and the best concordance between predicted and observed risks. This model identified 4.5% of symptomatic and 2.1% of asymptomatic patients with procedural risks that exceeded recommended thresholds. CONCLUSIONS: Of the 17 externally validated prediction models, the Ontario Carotid Endarterectomy Registry risk model had most reliable predictions of procedural stroke or death after CEA and can inform patients about procedural hazards and help focus CEA toward patients who would benefit most from it.

Surgery for cerebral cavernous malformations: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: We sought to quantify the risks of neurosurgical excision of cerebral cavernous malformations (CCMs) in a systematic review of cohort studies. METHODS: We updated our previous systematic review by searching OVID Medline, OVID EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library from 1 January 2013 to 30 April 2019. The primary outcome was a composite of death attributed to CCM or surgery, non-fatal symptomatic intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH), or new or worsened persistent non-haemorrhagic focal neurological deficit (FND). RESULTS: We included 70 cohorts, 67 reporting surgery alone, and three compared surgery to conservative management. A total of 5,089 patients (median age 36 years, 52% female) underwent surgery (total follow-up 19,404 patient-years). The annual rate of the composite outcome was 4.2% (95% CI 2.9 to 5.7; 46 cohorts; I2 = 93%), which was higher in cohorts reporting exclusively brainstem CCM (6.0%, 95% CI 4.1-8.3; 25 cohorts, I2 = 92%) versus predominantly supratentorial CCM (2.4%, 95% CI 1.3-3.8, 21 cohorts, I2 = 86%, phet = 0.001). The annual rate of the composite outcome was higher in cohorts with > 95% presenting with ICH (6.1%, 95% CI 4.2-8.4; 23 cohorts, I2 = 93%) versus others (2.3%, 95% CI 1.2-3.7; 23 cohorts, I2 = 83%, phet = 0.001). The incidence of the composite outcome did not change over time in cohorts of exclusively brainstem CCM (p = 0.7) or predominantly supratentorial CCM (p = 0.5). CONCLUSIONS: The risk of death, ICH, or FND after CCM excision is ~ 4%. This risk is higher for brainstem CCM and CCM that have caused ICH but has not changed over time. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This systematic review was registered (PROSPERO CRD42019131246).

Development and Internal Validation of a Risk Score to Detect Asymptomatic Carotid Stenosis.

OBJECTIVE: Asymptomatic carotid stenosis (ACS) is associated with an increased risk of ischaemic stroke and myocardial infarction. Risk scores have been developed to detect individuals at high risk of ACS, thereby enabling targeted screening, but previous external validation showed scope for refinement of prediction by adding additional predictors. The aim of this study was to develop a novel risk score in a large contemporary screened population. METHODS: A prediction model was developed for moderate (≥50%) and severe (≥70%) ACS using data from 596 469 individuals who attended screening clinics. Variables that predicted the presence of ≥50% and ≥70% ACS independently were determined using multivariable logistic regression. Internal validation was performed using bootstrapping techniques. Discrimination was assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) and agreement between predicted and observed cases using calibration plots. RESULTS: Predictors of ≥50% and ≥70% ACS were age, sex, current smoking, diabetes mellitus, prior stroke/transient ischaemic attack, coronary artery disease, peripheral arterial disease, blood pressure, and blood lipids. Models discriminated between participants with and without ACS reliably, with an AUROC of 0.78 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.77-0.78) for ≥ 50% ACS and 0.82 (95% CI 0.81-0.82) for ≥ 70% ACS. The number needed to screen in the highest decile of predicted risk to detect one case with ≥50% ACS was 13 and that of ≥70% ACS was 58. Targeted screening of the highest decile identified 41% of cases with ≥50% ACS and 51% with ≥70% ACS. CONCLUSION: The novel risk model predicted the prevalence of ACS reliably and performed better than previous models. Targeted screening among the highest decile of predicted risk identified around 40% of all cases with ≥50% ACS. Initiation or intensification of cardiovascular risk management in detected cases might help to reduce both carotid related ischaemic strokes and myocardial infarctions.

A systematic review and meta-analysis of complication rates after carotid procedures performed by different specialties.

OBJECTIVE: Different competencies and skills are required and obtained during medical specialization. However, whether these have an impact on procedural outcomes of carotid endarterectomy (CEA) or carotid artery stenting (CAS) is unclear. We assessed the reported association between operator specialization and procedural outcomes after CEA or CAS to determine whether CEA and CAS should be performed by specific specialties. METHODS: We systematically searched PubMed and Embase up to August 21, 2017, for randomized clinical trials and observational studies that compared two or more specialties performing CEA or CAS for symptomatic and asymptomatic carotid artery stenosis. The composite primary outcome was procedural stroke or death (ie, occurring within 30 days of the procedure or before discharge). Risk estimates were pooled with a generic inverse variance random effects model. RESULTS: A total of 35 studies (26 providing data on CEA, 8 providing data on CAS, and 1 providing data on both CEA and CAS) were included, describing 256,033 CEA and 38,605 CAS procedures. For CEA, decreased risk of procedural stroke or death for operations performed by vascular surgeons was found with pooled unadjusted relative risk (RR) of 0.63 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.46-0.86; seven studies) compared with neurosurgeons and RR of 0.81 (95% CI, 0.66-0.99; six studies) compared with general surgeons. An increased risk of procedural stroke or death for operations performed by neurosurgeons compared with cardiothoracic surgeons was found with a pooled unadjusted RR of 1.22 (95% CI, 1.02-1.46). No studies adjusted for potential confounding, and no significant unadjusted associations were found in other comparisons of operator specialty for the primary outcome. For CAS, no differences in procedural stroke or death were found by operator specialty. CONCLUSIONS: Studies were at high risk of bias mainly because of potential confounding by patient selection for CEA and CAS. Current evidence is insufficient to restrict CEA or CAS to specific specialties.

High Operator and Hospital Volume Are Associated With a Decreased Risk of Death and Stroke After Carotid Revascularization: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between operator or hospital volume and procedural outcomes of carotid revascularization. BACKGROUND: Operator and hospital volume have been proposed as determinants of outcome after carotid endarterectomy (CEA) or carotid artery stenting (CAS). The magnitude and clinical relevance of this relationship are debated. METHODS: We systematically searched PubMed and EMBASE until August 21, 2017. The primary outcome was procedural (30 days, in-hospital, or perioperative) death or stroke. Obtained or estimated risk estimates were pooled with a generic inverse variance random-effects model. RESULTS: We included 87 studies. A decreased risk of death or stroke following CEA was found for high compared to low operator volume with a pooled adjusted odds ratio (OR) of 0.50 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.28-0.87; 3 cohorts), and a pooled unadjusted relative risk (RR) of 0.59 (95% CI 0.42-0.83; 9 cohorts); for high compared to low hospital volume with a pooled adjusted OR of 0.62 (95% CI 0.42-0.90; 5 cohorts), and a pooled unadjusted RR of 0.68 (95% CI 0.51-0.92; 9 cohorts). A decreased risk of death or stroke after CAS was found for high compared to low operator volume with an adjusted OR of 0.43 (95% CI 0.20-0.95; 1 cohort), and an unadjusted RR of 0.50 (95% CI 0.32-0.79; 1 cohort); for high compared to low hospital volume with an adjusted OR of 0.46 (95% CI 0.26-0.80; 1 cohort), and no significant decreased risk in a pooled unadjusted RR of 0.72 (95% CI 0.49-1.06; 2 cohorts). CONCLUSIONS: We found a decreased risk of procedural death and stroke after CEA and CAS for high operator and high hospital volume, indicating that aiming for a high volume may help to reduce procedural complications. REGISTRATION: This systematic review has been registered in the international prospective registry of systematic reviews (PROSPERO): CRD42017051491.

Plasma fibrinogen level as a potential predictor of hemorrhagic complications after catheter-directed thrombolysis for peripheral arterial occlusions.

BACKGROUND: The benefit of catheter-directed thrombolysis for peripheral arterial occlusions is limited by hemorrhagic complications. Plasma fibrinogen level (PFL) has been suggested as a predictor of these hemorrhagic complications, but the accurateness of prediction is unknown. We summarized the available evidence on the predictive value of PFL for hemorrhagic complications after catheter-directed thrombolysis for acute or subacute peripheral native artery or arterial bypass occlusions. METHODS: We systematically searched PubMed and Embase until January 2016 for peer-reviewed publications on adults undergoing thrombolysis for acute or subacute peripheral native artery or arterial bypass occlusions, assessing the predictive value of PFL for hemorrhagic complications. Two authors independently performed data extraction. Risk of bias was assessed with the Quality in Prognosis Studies (QUIPS) tool. RESULTS: In total, six studies (two randomized clinical trials and four cohort studies) reported on 613 patients undergoing 623 thrombolytic interventions for peripheral native artery or arterial bypass occlusions. No risk estimates for PFL and hemorrhagic complications were reported, two risk estimates were calculated, and nine associations between PFL and hemorrhagic complications were reported. For PFL <100 mg/dL compared with ≥100 mg/dL, the calculated relative risk was 0.33 (95% confidence interval, 0.05-2.25) for major bleeding and 1.39 (95% confidence interval, 1.06-1.81) for any bleeding. There were considerable differences in the time point of PFL measurement, the thrombolytic agents, the doses of the agents, and the definition of outcomes. PFL seems inaccurate in predicting hemorrhagic complications. Overall, the included studies were at high risk of bias. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the current literature, the predictive value of PFL for predicting hemorrhagic complications after catheter-directed thrombolysis for acute or subacute peripheral native artery and arterial bypass occlusions is unproven.

First-line non-cytotoxic therapy in chemotherapy-naive patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer: a systematic review of 10 randomised clinical trials.

The aim of this study is to systematically evaluate all available treatment options in chemotherapy-naive patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC). We systematically searched PubMed, EMBASE, and the Cochrane libraries up to 1 March 2016 for peer-reviewed publications on randomised clinical trials (RCTs). RCTs were included if progression-free survival (PFS), overall survival (OS), quality of life (QoL), or adverse events (AEs) were quantitatively evaluated. We assessed the risk of bias with the Cochrane Collaboration's tool and graded the evidence with the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) Working Group's approach. We included 25 articles, reporting on 10 unique RCTs describing seven different comparisons. In one RCT, a prolonged OS and PFS (high quality) were found with abiraterone and prednisone compared to placebo plus prednisone. In one RCT, a prolonged OS and PFS (high quality) were found with enzalutamide compared to placebo. In two RCTs, a prolonged OS (high and moderate quality) was found with 223 radium compared to placebo, but its effect on PFS is unknown. In three RCTs, a prolonged OS (moderate quality) was found with sipuleucel-T compared to placebo, but no prolonged PFS (low quality). In one RCT a prolonged PFS (high quality) was found with orteronel compared to placebo, but no prolonged OS (moderate quality). In one RCT, a prolonged OS (moderate quality) was found with bicalutamide compared to placebo, but its effect on PFS is unknown. In one RCT, a prolonged PFS (high quality) was found with enzalutamide compared to bicalutamide, but its effect on OS is unknown. The best evidence was found for abiraterone and enzalutamide for effective prolongation of OS and PFS to treat chemotherapy-naive patients with mCRPC. However, taking both QoL and AEs into consideration, other treatment modalities could be considered for individual patients.

Posterior transverse plication of the internal carotid artery to correct for kinking.

BACKGROUND: The occasional need for shortening of the internal carotid artery (ICA) following carotid endarterectomy (CEA) to correct for kinking is still controversial. Although several technical options have been suggested, the impact on perioperative outcome remains unclear, and long-term clinical follow-up is lacking. Shortening by resection has a theoretical risk for a twisted anastomosis and subsequent ICA thrombosis. Posterior transverse plication (PTP) offers an alternative shortening technique without the need for a new anastomosis. We aimed to assess the safety and patency of CEA with concomitant PTP. Secondly, we aimed to provide an overview of different technical modalities for shortening of the carotid artery in current literature. METHODS: Within the time frame of 2000 through 2011, 29 patients (mean age, 73.4 years) undergoing CEA with additional PTP of the ICA and standardized patchplasty were retrospectively identified. Patient characteristics, surgical procedural details, and both short- (<30 days) and long- (>30 days) term clinical and duplex ultrasound follow-up were retrieved. Restenosis was defined as ≥50% stenosis on duplex ultrasound. In addition, a literature search was performed on different techniques for ICA shortening. RESULTS: Thirty-day outcome revealed no deaths or strokes. No postprocedural thrombosis or narrowing of the ipsilateral ICA was observed. During follow-up (mean, 34.3 months; range, 3-125 months), one patient (4%) died of a noncardiovascular cause. Three patients (11%) developed ipsilateral neurological symptoms (1 stroke, 2 transient ischemic attacks) after 5, 19, and 66 months follow-up, respectively. Of these, two patients (7%) had restenosis at the site of PTP. Asymptomatic restenosis occurred in one other patient (4%) after 16 months. CONCLUSIONS: Although the indications for additional shortening procedures following CEA need to be defined, in this small series, PTP as an additional shortening procedure of the ICA following CEA seems feasible and safe with no additional periprocedural risk for narrowing at the plicature or thrombosis of the endarterectomy plane. However, restenosis at the plicature may hamper the long term benefit of carotid reconstruction.

Treatment of cerebral cavernous malformations: a systematic review and meta-regression analysis.

OBJECTIVE: The reported effects of treating cerebral cavernous malformations (CCMs) by neurosurgical excision or stereotactic radiosurgery are imprecise and vary between studies. METHODS: We searched Ovid Medline, EMBASE and The Cochrane Library for peer-reviewed publications of cohort studies describing outcomes of treating 20 or more patients with CCM with at least 80% completeness of follow-up. Two reviewers extracted data to quantify the incidence of a composite outcome (death, non-fatal intracranial haemorrhage, or new/worse persistent focal neurological deficit) after CCM treatment. We explored associations between summary measures of study characteristics and outcome using Poisson meta-regression analyses. RESULTS: We included 63 cohorts, involving 3424 patients. The incidence of the composite outcome was 6.6 (95% CI 5.7 to 7.5) per 100 person-years after neurosurgical excision (median follow-up 3.3 years) and 5.4 (95% CI 4.5 to 6.4) after stereotactic radiosurgery (median follow-up 4.1 years). After neurosurgical excision the incidence of the composite outcome increased with every per cent point increase in patients with brainstem CCM (rate ratio (RR) 1.03, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.05), and decreased with each more recent study midyear (RR 0.91, 95% CI 0.85 to 0.98) and each per cent point increase in patients presenting with haemorrhage (RR 0.98, 95% CI 0.96 to 1.00). We did not find significant associations in studies of stereotactic radiosurgery. CONCLUSIONS: The reported risks of CCM treatment (and the lower risks of neurosurgical excision over time, from recently bled CCMs, and for CCMs outside the brainstem) compare favourably with the risks of recurrent haemorrhage from CCM. Long-term effects, especially important for stereotactic radiosurgery, are unknown.

Colchicine for secondary prevention of ischaemic stroke and atherosclerotic events: a meta-analysis of randomised trials.

Background: Guidelines recommend low-dose colchicine for secondary prevention in cardiovascular disease, but uncertainty remains concerning its efficacy for stroke, efficacy in key subgroups and about uncommon but serious safety outcomes. Methods: In this trial-level meta-analysis, we searched bibliographic databases and trial registries form inception to May 16, 2024. We included randomised trials of colchicine for secondary prevention of ischaemic stroke and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE: ischaemic stroke, myocardial infarction, coronary revascularisation, or cardiovascular death). Secondary outcomes were serious safety outcomes and mortality. A fixed-effect inverse-variance model was used to generate a pooled estimate of relative risk (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42024540320. Findings: Six trials involving 14,934 patients with prior stroke or coronary disease were included. In all patients, colchicine compared with placebo or no colchicine reduced the risk for ischaemic stroke by 27% (132 [1.8%] events versus 186 [2.5%] events, RR 0.73 [95% CI 0.58-0.90]) and MACE by 27% (505 [6.8%] events versus 693 [9.4%] events, with RR 0.73 [0.65-0.81]). Efficacy was consistent in key subgroups (females versus males, age below versus above 70, with versus without diabetes, statin versus non-statin users). Colchicine was not associated with an increase in serious safety outcomes: hospitalisation for pneumonia (109 [1.5%] versus 106 [1.5%], RR 0.99 [0.76-1.30]), cancer (247 [3.5%] versus 255 [3.6%], RR 0.97 [0.82-1.15]), and gastro-intestinal events (153 [2.1%] versus 135 [1.9%]), RR 1.15 [0.91-1.44]. There was no difference in all-cause death (201 [2.7%] versus 181 [2.4%], RR 1.09 [0.89-1.33]), cardiovascular death (70 [0.9%] versus 80 [1.1%], RR 0.89 [0.65-1.23]), or non-cardiovascular death (131 [1.8%] versus 101 [1.4%], RR 1.26 [0.98-1.64]). Interpretation: In patients with prior stroke or coronary disease, colchicine reduced ischaemic stroke and MACE, with consistent treatment effect in key subgroups, and did not increase serious safety events or death. Funding: There was no funding source for this study.

Detection rates of asymptomatic carotid artery stenosis and atrial fibrillation by selective screening of patients without cardiovascular disease.

BACKGROUND: Individuals with significant asymptomatic carotid artery stenosis (ACAS) and atrial fibrillation (AF) could benefit from specific interventions to prevent heart attack and stroke, but are often clinically 'silent'. We aimed to determine detection rate of ACAS and AF by screening, targeting a population at increased cardiovascular risk. METHODS: Data on adults who attended voluntary and self-funded commercial screening clinics in the United States or the United Kingdom between 2008 and 2013 were used. The Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease (ASCVD) risk equation was applied to each participants and detection rates of targeted screening for ≥50% ACAS and AF to those at highest risk of CVD was assessed. RESULTS: Among 0.4 million individuals between 40 and 80 years, without CVD, 6191 (1.6%) had ACAS and 1026 (0.3%) had AF. Selective screening of participants with a predicted 10-year CVD risk of ≥20% identified 40% of ACAS cases, a prevalence of 3.7%, leading to a number needed to screen (NNS) of 27, as well as 39% of AF cases, a prevalence of 0.6%, with a NNS of 170. Selective screening of those with a predicted 10-year CVD risk of ≥15% identified 54% of ACAS cases, a prevalence of 3.3%, and an NNS of 31, as well as 51% of AF cases, a prevalence of 0.5%, with an NNS of 195. CONCLUSIONS: Selective screening for ACAS and AF implemented in ASCVD risk assessment greatly reduces the NNS when compared with population-level screening with detection rates of ACAS and AF substantially greater in people at higher predicted CVD risk.

Joint Associations Between Body Mass Index and Waist Circumference With Atrial Fibrillation in Men and Women.

Background Associations between adiposity and atrial fibrillation (AF) might differ between sexes. We aimed to determine precise estimates of the risk of AF by body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) in men and women. Methods and Results Between 2008 and 2013, over 3.2 million adults attended commercial screening clinics. Participants completed health questionnaires and underwent physical examination along with cardiovascular investigations, including an ECG. We excluded those with cardiovascular and cardiac disease. We used multivariable logistic regression and determined joint associations of BMI and WC and the risk of AF in men and women by comparing likelihood ratio χ2 statistics. Among 2.1 million included participants 12 067 (0.6%) had AF. A positive association between BMI per 5 kg/m2 increment and AF was observed, with an odds ratio of 1.65 (95% CI, 1.57-1.73) for men and 1.36 (95% CI, 1.30-1.42) for women among those with a BMI above 20 kg/m2. We found a positive association between AF and WC per 10 cm increment, with an odds ratio of 1.47 (95% CI, 1.36-1.60) for men and 1.37 (95% CI, 1.26-1.49) for women. Improvement of likelihood ratio χ2 was equal after adding BMI and WC to models with all participants. In men, WC showed stronger improvement of likelihood ratio χ2 than BMI (30% versus 23%). In women, BMI showed stronger improvement of likelihood ratio χ2 than WC (23% versus 12%). Conclusions We found a positive association between BMI (above 20 kg/m2) and AF and between WC and AF in both men and women. BMI seems a more informative measure about risk of AF in women and WC seems more informative in men.

Utility of risk prediction models to detect atrial fibrillation in screened participants.

AIMS: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with higher risk of stroke. While the prevalence of AF is low in the general population, risk prediction models might identify individuals for selective screening of AF. We aimed to systematically identify and compare the utility of established models to predict prevalent AF. METHODS AND RESULTS: Systematic search of PubMed and EMBASE for risk prediction models for AF. We adapted established risk prediction models and assessed their predictive performance using data from 2.5M individuals who attended vascular screening clinics in the USA and the UK and in the subset of 1.2M individuals with CHA2DS2-VASc ≥2. We assessed discrimination using area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves and agreement between observed and predicted cases using calibration plots. After screening 6959 studies, 14 risk prediction models were identified. In our cohort, 10 464 (0.41%) participants had AF. For discrimination, six prediction model had AUROC curves of 0.70 or above in all individuals and those with CHA2DS2-VASc ≥2. In these models, calibration plots showed very good concordance between predicted and observed risks of AF. The two models with the highest observed prevalence in the highest decile of predicted risk, CHARGE-AF and MHS, showed an observed prevalence of AF of 1.6% with a number needed to screen of 63. Selective screening of the 10% highest risk identified 39% of cases with AF. CONCLUSION: Prediction models can reliably identify individuals at high risk of AF. The best performing models showed an almost fourfold higher prevalence of AF by selective screening of individuals in the highest decile of risk compared with systematic screening of all cases. REGISTRATION: This systematic review was registered (PROSPERO CRD42019123847).