Radiocarbon test for demographic events in written and oral history.

We extend an established simulation-based method to test for significant short-duration (1-2 centuries) demographic events known from one documented historical and one oral historical context. Case study 1 extrapolates population data from the Western historical tradition using historically derived demographic data from the catastrophic European Black Death/bubonic plague (Yersinia pestis). We find a corresponding statistically significant drop in absolute population using an extended version of a previously published simulation method. Case study 2 uses this refined simulation method to test for a settlement gap identified in oral historical records of descendant Tsimshian First Nations communities from the Prince Rupert Harbour region of the Pacific Northwest region of British Columbia, Canada. Using a regional database of n = 523 radiocarbon dates, we find a significant drop in relative population using the extended simulation-based method consistent with Tsimshian oral records. We conclude that our technical refinement extends the utility of radiocarbon simulation methods and can provide a rigorous test of demographic predictions derived from a range of historical sources.

The Neolithic Demographic Transition in the Central Balkans: population dynamics reconstruction based on new radiocarbon evidence.

In this paper, we test the hypothesis of the Neolithic Demographic Transition in the Central Balkan Early Neolithic (6250-5300 BC) by applying the method of summed calibrated probability distributions to the set of more than 200 new radiocarbon dates from Serbia. The results suggest that there was an increase in population size after the first farmers arrived to the study area around 6250 BC. This increase lasted for approximately 250 years and was followed by a decrease in the population size proxy after 6000 BC, reaching its minimum around 5800 BC. This was followed by another episode of growth until 5600 BC when population size proxy rapidly declined, reaching the minimum again around 5500 BC. The reconstructed intrinsic growth rate value indicates that the first episode of growth might have been fuelled both by high fertility and migrations, potentially related to the effects of the 8.2 ky event. The second episode of population growth after 5800 BC was probably owing to the high fertility alone. It remains unclear what caused the episodes of population decrease. This article is part of the theme issue 'Cross-disciplinary approaches to prehistoric demography'.

Bone spoons for prehistoric babies: Detection of human teeth marks on the Neolithic artefacts from the site Grad-Starcevo (Serbia).

Around 8000 years ago, throughout the Neolithic world a new type of artefact appeared, small spoons masterly made from cattle bone, usually interpreted as tools, due to their intensive traces of use. Contrary to those interpretations, the small dimensions of spoons and presence of intensive traces of use led us to the assumption that they were used for feeding babies. In order to test that assumption we compared 2230 marks on three spoons from the Neolithic site of Grad-Starcevo in Serbia (5800-5450 cal BC) with 3151 primary teeth marks produced experimentally. This study has shown that some of the marks on spoons were made by primary teeth, which indicate their usage in feeding babies. The production of a new type of artefact to feed babies is probably related to the appearance of a new type of weaning food, and the abundance of spoons indicates that new baby gruels became an important innovation in prehistoric baby-care.

Demography of the Early Neolithic Population in Central Balkans: Population Dynamics Reconstruction Using Summed Radiocarbon Probability Distributions.

The Central Balkans region is of great importance for understanding the spread of the Neolithic in Europe but the Early Neolithic population dynamics of the region is unknown. In this study we apply the method of summed calibrated probability distributions to a set of published radiocarbon dates from the Republic of Serbia in order to reconstruct population dynamics in the Early Neolithic in this part of the Central Balkans. The results indicate that there was a significant population growth after ~6200 calBC, when the Neolithic was introduced into the region, followed by a bust at the end of the Early Neolithic phase (~5400 calBC). These results are broadly consistent with the predictions of the Neolithic Demographic Transition theory and the patterns of population booms and busts detected in other regions of Europe. These results suggest that the cultural process that underlies the patterns observed in Central and Western Europe was also in operation in the Central Balkan Neolithic and that the population increase component of this process can be considered as an important factor for the spread of the Neolithic as envisioned in the demic diffusion hypothesis.