Molecular portraits of patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma who diverge as rapid progressors or long survivors on chemotherapy.

OBJECTIVE: Cytotoxic agents are the cornerstone of treatment for patients with advanced intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (iCCA), despite heterogeneous benefit. We hypothesised that the pretreatment molecular profiles of diagnostic biopsies can predict patient benefit from chemotherapy and define molecular bases of innate chemoresistance. DESIGN: We identified a cohort of advanced iCCA patients with comparable baseline characteristics who diverged as extreme outliers on chemotherapy (survival <6 m in rapid progressors, RP; survival >23 m in long survivors, LS). Diagnostic biopsies were characterised by digital pathology, then subjected to whole-transcriptome profiling of bulk and geospatially macrodissected tissue regions. Spatial transcriptomics of tumour-infiltrating myeloid cells was performed using targeted digital spatial profiling (GeoMx). Transcriptome signatures were evaluated in multiple cohorts of resected cancers. Signatures were also characterised using in vitro cell lines, in vivo mouse models and single cell RNA-sequencing data. RESULTS: Pretreatment transcriptome profiles differentiated patients who would become RPs or LSs on chemotherapy. Biologically, this signature originated from altered tumour-myeloid dynamics, implicating tumour-induced immune tolerogenicity with poor response to chemotherapy. The central role of the liver microenviroment was confrmed by the association of the RPLS transcriptome signature with clinical outcome in iCCA but not extrahepatic CCA, and in liver metastasis from colorectal cancer, but not in the matched primary bowel tumours. CONCLUSIONS: The RPLS signature could be a novel metric of chemotherapy outcome in iCCA. Further development and validation of this transcriptomic signature is warranted to develop precision chemotherapy strategies in these settings.

Systemic chemotherapy with or without cetuximab in patients with resectable colorectal liver metastasis (New EPOC): long-term results of a multicentre, randomised, controlled, phase 3 trial.

BACKGROUND: The interim analysis of the multicentre New EPOC trial in patients with resectable colorectal liver metastasis showed a significant reduction in progression-free survival in patients allocated to cetuximab plus chemotherapy compared with those given chemotherapy alone. The focus of the present analysis was to assess the effect on overall survival. METHODS: New EPOC was a multicentre, open-label, randomised, controlled, phase 3 trial. Adult patients (aged ≥18 years) with KRAS wild-type (codons 12, 13, and 61) resectable or suboptimally resectable colorectal liver metastases and a WHO performance status of 0-2 were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive chemotherapy with or without cetuximab before and after liver resection. Randomisation was done centrally with minimisation factors of surgical centre, poor prognosis cancer, and previous adjuvant treatment with oxaliplatin. Chemotherapy consisted of oxaliplatin 85 mg/m2 administered intravenously over 2 h, l-folinic acid (175 mg flat dose administered intravenously over 2 h) or d,l-folinic acid (350 mg flat dose administered intravenously over 2 h), and fluorouracil bolus 400 mg/m2 administered intravenously over 5 min, followed by a 46 h infusion of fluorouracil 2400 mg/m2 repeated every 2 weeks (regimen one), or oxaliplatin 130 mg/m2 administered intravenously over 2 h and oral capecitabine 1000 mg/m2 twice daily on days 1-14 repeated every 3 weeks (regimen two). Patients who had received adjuvant oxaliplatin could receive irinotecan 180 mg/m2 intravenously over 30 min with fluorouracil instead of oxaliplatin (regimen three). Cetuximab was given intravenously, 500 mg/m2 every 2 weeks with regimen one and three or a loading dose of 400 mg/m2 followed by a weekly infusion of 250 mg/m2 with regimen two. The primary endpoint of progression-free survival was published previously. Secondary endpoints were overall survival, preoperative response, pathological resection status, and safety. Trial recruitment was halted prematurely on the advice of the Trial Steering Committee on Nov 1, 2012. All analyses (except safety) were done on the intention-to-treat population. Safety analyses included all randomly assigned patients. This trial is registered with ISRCTN, number 22944367. FINDINGS: Between Feb 26, 2007, and Oct 12, 2012, 257 eligible patients were randomly assigned to chemotherapy with cetuximab (n=129) or without cetuximab (n=128). This analysis was carried out 5 years after the last patient was recruited, as defined in the protocol, at a median follow-up of 66·7 months (IQR 58·0-77·5). Median progression-free survival was 22·2 months (95% CI 18·3-26·8) in the chemotherapy alone group and 15·5 months (13·8-19·0) in the chemotherapy plus cetuximab group (hazard ratio [HR] 1·17, 95% CI 0·87-1·56; p=0·304). Median overall survival was 81·0 months (59·6 to not reached) in the chemotherapy alone group and 55·4 months (43·5-71·5) in the chemotherapy plus cetuximab group (HR 1·45, 1·02-2·05; p=0·036). There was no significant difference in the secondary outcomes of preoperative response or pathological resection status between groups. Five deaths might have been treatment-related (one in the chemotherapy alone group and four in the chemotherapy plus cetuximab group). The most common grade 3-4 adverse events reported were: neutrophil count decreased (26 [19%] of 134 in the chemotherapy alone group vs 21 [15%] of 137 in the chemotherapy plus cetuximab group), diarrhoea (13 [10%] vs 14 [10%]), skin rash (one [1%] vs 22 [16%]), thromboembolic events (ten [7%] vs 11 [8%]), lethargy (ten [7%] vs nine [7%]), oral mucositis (three [2%] vs 14 [10%]), vomiting (seven [5%] vs seven [5%]), peripheral neuropathy (eight [6%] vs five [4%]), and pain (six [4%] vs six [4%]). INTERPRETATION: Although the addition of cetuximab to chemotherapy improves the overall survival in some studies in patients with advanced, inoperable metastatic disease, its use in the perioperative setting in patients with operable disease confers a significant disadvantage in terms of overall survival. Cetuximab should not be used in this setting. FUNDING: Cancer Research UK.

Development and validation of a model to predict outcomes of colon cancer surveillance.

PURPOSE: Clinical trials suggest that intensive surveillance of colon cancer (CC) survivors to detect recurrence increases curative-intent treatment, although any survival benefit of surveillance as currently practiced appears modest. Realizing the potential of surveillance will require tools for identifying patients likely to benefit and for optimizing testing regimens. We describe and validate a model for predicting outcomes for any schedule of surveillance in CC survivors with specified age and cancer stage. METHODS: A Markov process parameterized based on individual-level clinical trial data generates natural history events for simulated patients. A utilization submodel simulates surveillance and diagnostic testing. We validate the model against outcomes from the follow-up after colorectal surgery (FACS) trial. RESULTS: Prevalidation sensitivity analysis showed no parameter influencing curative-intent treatment by > 5.0% or overall five-year survival (OS5) by > 1.5%. In validation, the proportion of recurring subjects predicted to receive curative-intent treatment fell within FACS 95% CI for carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA)-intensive, computed tomography (CT)-intensive, and combined CEA+CT regimens, but not for a minimum surveillance regimen, where the model overestimated recurrence and curative treatment. The observed OS5 fell within 95% prediction intervals for all regimens. CONCLUSION: The model performed well in predicting curative surgery for three of four FACS arms. It performed well in predicting OS5 for all arms.

Patterns of progression, treatment of progressive disease and post-progression survival in the New EPOC study.

BACKGROUND: The addition of cetuximab (CTX) to perioperative chemotherapy (CT) for operable colorectal liver metastases resulted in a shorter progression-free survival. Details of disease progression are described to further inform the primary study outcome. METHODS: A total of 257 KRAS wild-type patients were randomised to CT alone or CT with CTX. Data regarding sites and treatment of progressive disease were obtained for the 109 (CT n=48, CT and CTX n=61) patients with progressive disease at the cut-off date for analysis of November 2012. RESULTS: The liver was the most frequent site of progression (CT 67% (32/48); CT and CTX 66% (40/61)). A higher proportion of patients in the CT and group had multiple sites of progressive disease (CT 8%, 4/48; CT and CTX 23%, 14/61 P=0.04). Further treatment for progressive disease is known for 84 patients of whom 69 received further CT, most frequently irinotecan based. Twenty-two patients, 11 in each arm, received CTX as a further line agent. CONCLUSIONS: Both the distribution of progressive disease and further treatment are as expected for such a cohort. The pattern of disease progression seen is consistent with failure of systemic micrometastatic disease control rather than failure of local disease control following liver surgery.

Site and Stage of Colorectal Cancer Influence the Likelihood and Distribution of Disease Recurrence and Postrecurrence Survival: Data From the FACS Randomized Controlled Trial.

OBJECTIVES: To describe patterns of recurrence and postrecurrence survival in a large cohort of accurately staged patients with Dukes' A-C colorectal cancer. BACKGROUND: Recurrence remains a frequent cause of mortality after the treatment of colorectal cancer with curative intent. Understanding the likelihood and site of recurrence informs adjuvant treatment and follow-up. METHODS: Retrospective cohort analysis of data from the FACS (follow-up after colorectal cancer surgery) trial after a median 4.4 years of follow-up; postrecurrence survival was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. RESULTS: Complete data were available for 94% of patients; 189 (17%) patients had experienced recurrence. Incidence of recurrence varied according to the site of the primary (right colon: 51/379, 14%; left colon: 68/421, 16%; rectum: 70/332, 21%; P = 0.023) and initial stage (Dukes' A: 26/249, 10%; Dukes' B: 81/537, 15%; Dukes' C: 82/346, 24%; P < 0.0001). Pulmonary recurrence was most frequently associated with rectal tumors, and multisite/other recurrence with right-sided colonic tumors. Recurrences from lower-stage tumors were more likely to be treatable with curative intent (Dukes' A: 13/26, 50%; Dukes' B: 32/81, 40%; Dukes' C: 20/82, 24%; P = 0.03). Those with rectal tumors benefited most from follow-up (proportion with treatable recurrence: rectum 30/332, 9%; left colon 23/421, 6%; right colon 12/379, 3%; P = 0.003). Both initial stage (log rank P = 0.005) and site of primary (log rank P = 0.01) influenced postrecurrence survival. CONCLUSIONS: The likelihood and site of recurrence, and survival, are influenced by the site and stage of the primary tumor. Those with rectal cancers benefited most from follow-up.ISRCTN 41458548.

Systemic chemotherapy with or without cetuximab in patients with resectable colorectal liver metastasis: the New EPOC randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Surgery for colorectal liver metastases results in an overall survival of about 40% at 5 years. Progression-free survival is increased with the addition of oxaliplatin and fluorouracil chemotherapy. The addition of cetuximab to these chemotherapy regimens results in an overall survival advantage in patients with advanced disease who have the KRAS exon 2 wild-type tumour genotype. We aimed to assess the benefit of addition of cetuximab to standard chemotherapy in patients with resectable colorectal liver metastasis. METHODS: Patients with KRAS exon 2 wild-type resectable or suboptimally resectable colorectal liver metastases were randomised in a 1:1 ratio to receive chemotherapy with or without cetuximab before and after liver resection. Randomisation was done using minimisation with factors of surgical centre, poor prognostic tumour (one or more of: ≥ 4 metastases, N2 disease, or poor differentiation of primary tumour), and previous adjuvant treatment with oxaliplatin. Chemotherapy consisted of oxaliplatin 85 mg/m(2) intravenously over 2 h and fluorouracil bolus 400 mg/m(2) intravenously over 5 min, followed by a 46 h infusion of fluorouracil 2400 mg/m(2) repeated every 2 weeks (regimen one) or oxaliplatin 130 mg/m(2) intravenously over 2 h and oral capecitabine 1000 mg/m(2) twice daily on days 1-14 repeated every 3 weeks (regimen two). Patients who had received adjuvant oxaliplatin could receive irinotecan 180 mg/m(2) intravenously over 30 min with fluorouracil instead of oxaliplatin (regimen three). Cetuximab was given as an intravenous dose of 500 mg/m(2) every 2 weeks with regimen one and three or a loading dose of 400 mg/m(2) followed by a weekly infusion of 250 mg/m(2) with regimen two. The primary endpoint was progression-free survival. This is an interim analysis, up to Nov 1, 2012, when the trial was closed, having met protocol-defined futility criteria. This trial is registered, ISRCTN22944367. FINDINGS: 128 KRAS exon 2 wild-type patients were randomised to chemotherapy alone and 129 to chemotherapy with cetuximab between Feb 26, 2007, and Nov 1, 2012. 117 patients in the chemotherapy alone group and 119 in the chemotherapy plus cetuximab group were included in the primary analysis. The median follow-up was 21.1 months (95% CI 12.6-33.8) in the chemotherapy alone group and 19.8 months (12.2-28.7) in the chemotherapy plus cetuximab group. With an overall median follow-up of 20.7 months (95% CI 17.9-25.6) and 123 (58%) of 212 required events observed, progression-free survival was significantly shorter in the chemotherapy plus cetuximab group than in the chemotherapy alone group (14.1 months [95% CI 11.8-15.9] vs 20.5 months [95% CI 16.8-26.7], hazard ratio 1.48, 95% CI 1.04-2.12, p=0.030). The most common grade 3 or 4 adverse events were low neutrophil count (15 [11%] preoperatively in the chemotherapy alone group vs six [4%] in the chemotherapy plus cetuximab group; four [4%] vs eight [8%] postoperatively), embolic events (six [4%] vs eight [6%] preoperatively; two [2%] vs three [3%] postoperatively), peripheral neuropathy (six [4%] vs one [1%] preoperatively; two [2%] vs four [4%] postoperatively), nausea or vomiting (four [3%] vs six [4%] preoperatively; four [4%] vs two [2%] postoperatively), and skin rash (two [1%] vs 21 [15%] preoperatively; 0 vs eight [8%] postoperatively). There were three deaths in the chemotherapy plus cetuximab group (one interstitial lung disease and pulmonary embolism, one bronchopneumonia, and one pulmonary embolism) and one in the chemotherapy alone group (heart failure) that might have been treatment related. INTERPRETATION: Addition of cetuximab to chemotherapy and surgery for operable colorectal liver metastases in KRAS exon 2 wild-type patients results in shorter progression-free survival. Translational investigations to explore the molecular basis for this unexpected interaction are needed but at present the use of cetuximab in this setting cannot be recommended.

T cells but not NK cells are associated with a favourable outcome for resected colorectal liver metastases.

BACKGROUND: The adaptive immune response to colorectal cancer is important for survival. Less is understood about the role of innate lymphocytes, such as Natural Killer (NK) cells, which are abundant in human liver. METHODS: Samples of fresh liver (n = 21) and tumour (n = 11) tissue were obtained from patients undergoing surgical resection of colorectal liver metastases. Flow cytometry was used to analyse the presence and phenotype of NK cells, as compared to T cells, in the tumour and liver tissue. Results were correlated with survival. RESULTS: NK cells were poorly recruited to the tumours (distant liver tissue 38.3%, peritumoural liver 34.2%, tumour 12.9%, p = 0.0068). Intrahepatic and intratumoural NK cells were KIR (killer immunoglobulin-like receptor)loNKG2Ahi whereas circulating NK cells were KIRhiNKG2Alo. By contrast T cells represented 65.7% of the tumour infiltrating lymphocytes. Overall survival was 43% at 5 years, with the 5-year survival for individuals with a T cell rich infiltrate being 60% (95% CI 17-93%) and for those with a low T cell infiltrate being 0% (95% CI 0-48%). Conversely individuals with higher levels of NK cells in the tumour had an inferior outcome, although there were insufficient numbers to reach significance (median survivals: NKHi 1.63 years vs NKLo 3.92 years). CONCLUSIONS: T cells, but not NK cells, are preferentially recruited to colorectal liver metastases. NK cells within colorectal metastases have an intrahepatic and potentially tolerogenic, rather than a peripheral, phenotype. Similar to primary tumours, the magnitude of the T cell infiltrate in colorectal metastases is positively associated with survival.

Laparoscopic Versus Open Hemihepatectomy: The ORANGE II PLUS Multicenter Randomized Controlled Trial.

PURPOSE: To compare outcomes after laparoscopic versus open major liver resection (hemihepatectomy) mainly for primary or metastatic cancer. The primary outcome measure was time to functional recovery. Secondary outcomes included morbidity, quality of life (QoL), and for those with cancer, resection margin status and time to adjuvant systemic therapy. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This was a multicenter, randomized controlled, patient-blinded, superiority trial on adult patients undergoing hemihepatectomy. Patients were recruited from 16 hospitals in Europe between November 2013 and December 2018. RESULTS: Of the 352 randomly assigned patients, 332 patients (94.3%) underwent surgery (laparoscopic, n = 166 and open, n = 166) and comprised the analysis population. The median time to functional recovery was 4 days (IQR, 3-5; range, 1-30) for laparoscopic hemihepatectomy versus 5 days (IQR, 4-6; range, 1-33) for open hemihepatectomy (difference, -17.5% [96% CI, -25.6 to -8.4]; P < .001). There was no difference in major complications (laparoscopic 24/166 [14.5%] v open 28/166 [16.9%]; odds ratio [OR], 0.84; P = .58). Regarding QoL, both global health status (difference, 3.2 points; P < .001) and body image (difference, 0.9 points; P < .001) scored significantly higher in the laparoscopic group. For the 281 (84.6%) patients with cancer, R0 resection margin status was similar (laparoscopic 106 [77.9%] v open 122 patients [84.1%], OR, 0.60; P = .14) with a shorter time to adjuvant systemic therapy in the laparoscopic group (46.5 days v 62.8 days, hazard ratio, 2.20; P = .009). CONCLUSION: Among patients undergoing hemihepatectomy, the laparoscopic approach resulted in a shorter time to functional recovery compared with open surgery. In addition, it was associated with a better QoL, and in patients with cancer, a shorter time to adjuvant systemic therapy with no adverse impact on cancer outcomes observed.

Integrated Clinical-Molecular Classification of Colorectal Liver Metastases: A Biomarker Analysis of the Phase 3 New EPOC Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Personalized treatment approaches for patients with oligometastatic colorectal liver metastases are critically needed. We previously defined 3 biologically distinct molecular subtypes of colorectal liver metastases: (1) canonical, (2) immune, and (3) stromal. Objective: To independently validate these molecular subtypes in the phase 3 New EPOC randomized clinical trial. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective secondary analysis of the phase 3 New EPOC randomized clinical trial included a bi-institutional discovery cohort and multi-institutional validation cohort. The discovery cohort comprised patients who underwent hepatic resection for limited colorectal liver metastases (98% received perioperative chemotherapy) from May 31, 1994, to August 14, 2012. The validation cohort comprised patients who underwent hepatic resection for liver metastases with perioperative chemotherapy (fluorouracil, oxaliplatin, and irinotecan based) with or without cetuximab from February 26, 2007, to November 1, 2012. Data were analyzed from January 18 to December 10, 2021. Interventions: Resected metastases underwent RNA sequencing and microRNA (miRNA) profiling in the discovery cohort and messenger RNA and miRNA profiling with microarray in the validation cohort. Main Outcomes and Measures: A 31-feature (24 messenger RNAs and 7 miRNAs) neural network classifier was trained to predict molecular subtypes in the discovery cohort and applied to the validation cohort. Integrated clinical-molecular risk groups were designated based on molecular subtypes and the clinical risk score. The unique biological phenotype of each molecular subtype was validated using gene set enrichment analyses and immune deconvolution. The primary clinical end points were progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). Results: A total of 240 patients were included (mean [range] age, 63.0 [56.3-68.0] years; 151 [63%] male), with 93 in the discovery cohort and 147 in the validation cohort. In the validation cohort, 73 (50%), 28 (19%), and 46 (31%) patients were classified as having canonical, immune, and stromal metastases, respectively. The biological phenotype of each subtype was concordant with the discovery cohort. The immune subtype (best prognosis) demonstrated 5-year PFS of 43% (95% CI, 25%-60%; hazard ratio [HR], 0.37; 95% CI, 0.20-0.68) and OS of 63% (95% CI, 40%-79%; HR, 0.38; 95% CI, 0.17-0.86), which was statistically significantly higher than the canonical subtype (worst prognosis) at 14% (95% CI, 7%-23%) and 43% (95% CI, 32%-55%), respectively. Adding molecular subtypes to the clinical risk score improved prediction (the Gönen and Heller K for discrimination) from 0.55 (95% CI, 0.49-0.61) to 0.62 (95% CI, 0.57-0.67) for PFS and 0.59 (95% CI, 0.52-0.66) to 0.63 (95% CI, 0.56-0.70) for OS. The low-risk integrated group demonstrated 5-year PFS of 44% (95% CI, 20%-66%; HR, 0.38; 95% CI, 0.19-0.76) and OS of 78% (95% CI, 44%-93%; HR, 0.26; 95% CI, 0.08-0.84), superior to the high-risk group at 16% (95% CI, 10%-24%) and 43% (95% CI, 32%-52%), respectively. Conclusions and Relevance: In this prognostic study, biologically derived colorectal liver metastasis molecular subtypes and integrated clinical-molecular risk groups were highly prognostic. This novel molecular classification warrants further study as a possible predictive biomarker for personalized systemic treatment for colorectal liver metastases. Trial Registration: isrctn.org Identifier: ISRCTN22944367.

A proliferative subtype of colorectal liver metastases exhibits hypersensitivity to cytotoxic chemotherapy.

Personalized treatment approaches for patients with limited liver metastases from colorectal cancer are critically needed. By leveraging three large, independent cohorts of patients with colorectal liver metastases (n = 336), we found that a proliferative subtype associated with elevated CIN70 scores is linked to immune exclusion, increased metastatic proclivity, and inferior overall survival in colorectal liver metastases; however, high CIN70 scores generate a therapeutic vulnerability to DNA-damaging therapies leading to improved treatment responses. We propose CIN70 as a candidate biomarker to personalize systemic treatment options for patients with metastatic colorectal cancer. These findings are potentially broadly applicable to other human cancers.

Laparoscopic versus open resections in the posterosuperior liver segments within an enhanced recovery programme (ORANGE Segments): study protocol for a multicentre randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: A shift towards parenchymal-sparing liver resections in open and laparoscopic surgery emerged in the last few years. Laparoscopic liver resection is technically feasible and safe, and consensus guidelines acknowledge the laparoscopic approach in the posterosuperior segments. Lesions situated in these segments are considered the most challenging for the laparoscopic approach. The aim of this trial is to compare the postoperative time to functional recovery, complications, oncological safety, quality of life, survival and costs after laparoscopic versus open parenchymal-sparing liver resections in the posterosuperior liver segments within an enhanced recovery setting. METHODS: The ORANGE Segments trial is an international multicentre randomised controlled superiority trial conducted in centres experienced in laparoscopic liver resection. Eligible patients for minor resections in the posterosuperior segments will be randomised in a 1:1 ratio to undergo laparoscopic or open resections in an enhanced recovery setting. Patients and ward personnel are blinded to the treatment allocation until postoperative day 4 using a large abdominal dressing. The primary endpoint is time to functional recovery. Secondary endpoints include intraoperative outcomes, length of stay, resection margin, postoperative complications, 90-day mortality, time to adjuvant chemotherapy initiation, quality of life and overall survival. Laparoscopic liver surgery of the posterosuperior segments is hypothesised to reduce time to functional recovery by 2 days in comparison with open surgery. With a power of 80% and alpha of 0.04 to adjust for interim analysis halfway the trial, a total of 250 patients are required to be randomised. DISCUSSION: The ORANGE Segments trial is the first multicentre international randomised controlled study to compare short- and long-term surgical and oncological outcomes of laparoscopic and open resections in the posterosuperior segments within an enhanced recovery programme. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03270917 . Registered on September 1, 2017. Before start of inclusion. PROTOCOL VERSION: version 12, May 9, 2017.

Circulating tumour DNA as a biomarker in resectable and irresectable stage IV colorectal cancer; a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: For patients with metastatic colorectal cancer, stratification for treatment (surgery or chemotherapy) is often based on crude clinicopathological characteristics like tumour size and number of lesions. Circulating tumour DNA (ctDNA) acts as a potential biomarker of disease trajectory and biology, allowing better stratification. This study aims to systematically review ctDNA in stage IV colorectal cancer to assess its potential role as a prospective biomarker to guide management decisions. METHODS: A literature search was performed to identify studies where the measurement of ctDNA in stage IV colorectal cancer was correlated with a clinical outcome (radiological response, secondary resection rate, PFS, DFS or OS). RESULTS: Twenty-eight studies were included, reporting on 2823 patients. Circulating tumour DNA was detectable in between 80% and 90% of patients prior to treatment. Meta-analysis identified a strong correlation between detectable ctDNA after treatment (surgery or chemotherapy) and overall survival (HR 2.2, 95% CI 1.79-2.69, p < 0.00001), as well as progression-free survival (HR 3.15, 95% CI 2.10-4.73, p < 0.00001). ctDNA consistently offered an early marker of long-term prognosis in irresectable disease, with changes after one cycle of systemic therapy demonstrating prognostic value. In resectable disease treated with curative intent, detection of ctDNA offered a lead time over radiological recurrence of 10 months. CONCLUSION: Circulating tumour DNA is detectable in the majority of resectable and irresectable patients. The presence of ctDNA is clearly associated with shorter overall survival, with changes in ctDNA an early biomarker of adverse disease behaviour. Prospective trials are essential to test its clinical efficacy.

Intratumoural immune signature to identify patients with primary colorectal cancer who do not require follow-up after resection: an observational study.

BACKGROUND: Following surgical and adjuvant treatment of primary colorectal cancer, many patients are routinely followed up with axial imaging (most commonly computerised tomography imaging) and blood carcinoembryonic antigen (a tumour marker) testing. Because fewer than one-fifth of patients will relapse, a large number of patients are followed up unnecessarily. OBJECTIVES: To determine whether or not the intratumoural immune signature could identify a cohort of patients with a relapse rate so low that follow-up is unnecessary. DESIGN: An observational study based on a secondary tissue collection of the tumours from participants in the FACS (Follow-up After Colorectal Cancer Surgery) trial. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tumour tissue was obtained from 550 out of 1202 participants in the FACS trial. Tissue microarrays were constructed and stained for cluster of differentiation (CD)3+ and CD45RO+ T lymphocytes as well as standard haematoxylin and eosin staining, with a view to manual and, subsequently, automated cell counting. RESULTS: The tissue microarrays were satisfactorily stained for the two immune markers. Manual cell counting proved possible on the arrays, but manually counting the number of cores for the entire study was found to not be feasible; therefore, an attempt was made to use automatic cell counting. Although it is clear that this approach is workable, there were both hardware and software problems; therefore, reliable data could not be obtained within the time frame of the study. LIMITATIONS: The main limitations were the inability to use machine counting because of problems with both hardware and software, and the loss of critical scientific staff. Findings from this research indicate that this approach will be able to count intratumoural immune cells in the long term, but whether or not the original aim of the project proved possible is not known. CONCLUSIONS: The project was not successful in its aim because of the failure to achieve a reliable counting system. FUTURE WORK: Further work is needed to perfect immune cell machine counting and then complete the objectives of this study that are still relevant. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN41458548. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 2. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Bowel cancer (also known as colorectal cancer) is the fourth commonest cancer in the UK. When the cancer is confined to the bowel and/or the surrounding lymph nodes (early bowel cancer), it is typically treated with an operation to remove the cancer with or without the addition of chemotherapy. Following this treatment, many patients will be cured, but in approximately one in five patients the cancer may come back (recur) either in the bowel or in another organ (e.g. the liver). Consequently, after treatment of early bowel cancer, clinicians often follow up patients in the hope of detecting any recurrent cancer at an early and treatable stage. For the four out of five patients whose cancer will never recur, this follow-up is unnecessary and burdensome on both the NHS and the patients. Better markers are needed to inform which patients do and do not need to undergo this surveillance. Over the last decade, evidence has accumulated to show that the way that a patient's immune system responds to a cancer influences the likelihood of the cancer recurring. It is plausible that those with the most immune cells in their cancer have such a small chance of recurrence that follow-up is not necessary. To validate this in an accurately followed-up population of patients with bowel cancer, we collected cancer tissue specimens from 701 patients in the Follow-up After Colorectal Surgery (FACS) trial and developed methods to count the number of immune cells in their cancers. At present, methods are still under development to automate the process. Indeed, if this were ever to become part of routine practice in NHS laboratories, then automation would be essential.

Population-based observational study of acute pancreatitis in southern England.

INTRODUCTION: Acute pancreatitis is a common surgical emergency. Identifying variations in presentation, incidence and management may assist standardisation and optimisation of care. The objective of the study was to document the current incidence management and outcomes of acute pancreatitis against international guidelines, and to assess temporal trends over the past 20 years. METHODS: A prospective four-month audit of patients with acute pancreatitis was performed across the Wessex region. The Atlanta 2012 classifications were used to define cases, severity and complications. Outcomes were recorded using validated systems and correlated against guideline standards. Case ascertainment was validated with clinical coding and hospital episode statistics data. RESULTS: A total of 283 patient admissions with acute pancreatitis were identified. Aetiology included 153 gallstones (54%), 65 idiopathic (23%), 29 alcohol (10%), 9 endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (3%), 6 drug related (2%), 5 tumour (2%) and 16 other (6%). Compliance with guidelines had improved compared with our previous regional audit. Results were 6.5% mortality, 74% severity stratification, 23% idiopathic cases, 65% definitive treatment of gallstones within 2 weeks, 39% computed tomography within 6-10 days of severe pancreatitis presentation and 82% severe pancreatitis critical care admission. The Atlanta 2012 severity criteria significantly correlated with critical care stay, length of stay, development of complications and mortality (2% vs 6% vs 36%, P < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of acute pancreatitis in southern England has risen substantially. The Atlanta 2012 classification identifies patients with severe pancreatitis who have a high risk of fatal outcome. Acute pancreatitis management is seen to have evolved in keeping with new evidence and updated clinical guidelines.

Long non-coding RNAs within the tumour microenvironment and their role in tumour-stroma cross-talk.

Long non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs) are a diverse class of RNA transcripts which have limited protein coding potential. They perform a variety of cellular functions in health, but have also been implicated during malignant transformation. A further theme in recent years is the critical role of the tumour microenvironment and the dynamic interactions between cancer and stromal cells in promoting invasion and disease progression. Whereas the contribution of deregulated lncRNAs within cancer cells has received considerable attention, their significance within the tumour microenvironment is less well understood. The tumour microenvironment consists of cancer-associated stromal cells and structural extracellular components which interact with one another and with the transformed epithelium via complex extracellular signalling pathways. LncRNAs are directly and indirectly involved in tumour/stroma cross-talk and help stimulate a permissive tumour microenvironment which is more conducive for invasive tumour growth. Furthermore, lncRNAs play key roles in determining the phenotype of cancer associated stromal cells and contribute to angiogenesis and immune evasion pathways, extracellular-matrix (ECM) turnover and the response to hypoxic stress. Here we explore the multifaceted roles of lncRNAs within the tumour microenvironment and their putative pathophysiological effects.

The diagnostic accuracy of a single CEA blood test in detecting colorectal cancer recurrence: Results from the FACS trial.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of a single CEA (carcinoembryonic antigen) blood test in detecting colorectal cancer recurrence. BACKGROUND: Patients who have undergone curative resection for primary colorectal cancer are typically followed up with scheduled CEA testing for 5 years. Decisions to investigate further (usually by CT imaging) are based on single test results, reflecting international guidelines. METHODS: A secondary analysis was undertaken of data from the FACS trial (two arms included CEA testing). The composite reference standard applied included CT-CAP imaging, clinical assessment and colonoscopy. Accuracy in detecting recurrence was evaluated in terms of sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratios, predictive values, time-dependent area under the ROC curves, and operational performance when used prospectively in clinical practice are reported. RESULTS: Of 582 patients, 104 (17.9%) developed recurrence during the 5 year follow-up period. Applying the recommended threshold of 5µg/L achieves at best 50.0% sensitivity (95% CI: 40.1-59.9%); in prospective use in clinical practice it would lead to 56 missed recurrences (53.8%; 95% CI: 44.2-64.4%) and 89 false alarms (56.7% of 157 patients referred for investigation). Applying a lower threshold of 2.5µg/L would reduce the number of missed recurrences to 36.5% (95% CI: 26.5-46.5%) but would increase the false alarms to 84.2% (924/1097 referred). Some patients are more prone to false alarms than others-at the 5µg/L threshold, the 89 episodes of unnecessary investigation were clustered in 29 individuals. CONCLUSION: Our results demonstrated very low sensitivity for CEA, bringing to question whether it could ever be used as an independent triage test. It is not feasible to improve the diagnostic performance of a single test result by reducing the recommended action threshold because of the workload and false alarms generated. Current national and international guidelines merit re-evaluation and options to improve performance, such as making clinical decisions on the basis of CEA trend, should be further assessed.

What carcinoembryonic antigen level should trigger further investigation during colorectal cancer follow-up? A systematic review and secondary analysis of a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Following primary surgical and adjuvant treatment for colorectal cancer, many patients are routinely followed up with blood carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) testing. OBJECTIVE: To determine how the CEA test result should be interpreted to inform the decision to undertake further investigation to detect treatable recurrences. DESIGN: Two studies were conducted: (1) a Cochrane review of existing studies describing the diagnostic accuracy of blood CEA testing for detecting colorectal recurrence; and (2) a secondary analysis of data from the two arms of the FACS (Follow-up After Colorectal Surgery) trial in which CEA testing was carried out. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: The secondary analysis was based on data from 582 patients recruited into the FACS trial between 2003 and 2009 from 39 NHS hospitals in England with access to high-volume services offering surgical treatment of metastatic recurrence and followed up for 5 years. CEA testing was undertaken in general practice. RESULTS: In the systematic review we identified 52 studies for meta-analysis, including in aggregate 9717 participants (median study sample size 139, interquartile range 72-247). Pooled sensitivity at the most commonly recommended threshold in national guidelines of 5 µg/l was 71% [95% confidence interval (CI) 64% to 76%] and specificity was 88% (95% CI 84% to 92%). In the secondary analysis of FACS data, the diagnostic accuracy of a single CEA test was less than was suggested by the review [area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) 0.74, 95% CI 0.68 to 0.80]. At the commonly recommended threshold of 5 µg/l, sensitivity was estimated as 50.0% (95% CI 40.1% to 59.9%) and lead time as about 3 months. About four in 10 patients without a recurrence will have at least one false alarm and six out of 10 tests will be false alarms (some patients will have multiple false alarms, particularly smokers). Making decisions to further investigate based on the trend in serial CEA measurements is better (AUC for positive trend 0.85, 95% CI 0.78 to 0.91), but to maintain approximately 70% sensitivity with 90% specificity it is necessary to increase the frequency of testing in year 1 and to apply a reducing threshold for investigation as measurements accrue. LIMITATIONS: The reference standards were imperfect and the main analysis was subject to work-up bias and had limited statistical precision and no external validation. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest that (1) CEA testing should not be used alone as a triage test; (2) in year 1, testing frequency should be increased (to monthly for 3 months and then every 2 months); (3) the threshold for investigating a single test result should be raised to 10 µg/l; (4) after the second CEA test, decisions to investigate further should be made on the basis of the trend in CEA levels; (5) the optimal threshold for investigating the CEA trend falls over time; and (6) continuing smokers should not be monitored with CEA testing. Further research is needed to explore the operational feasibility of monitoring the trend in CEA levels and to externally validate the proposed thresholds for further investigation. STUDY REGISTRATION: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42015019327 and Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN93652154. FUNDING: The main FACS trial and this substudy were funded by the National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

A randomised controlled trial to assess the cost-effectiveness of intensive versus no scheduled follow-up in patients who have undergone resection for colorectal cancer with curative intent.

BACKGROUND: Intensive follow-up after surgery for colorectal cancer is common practice but lacks a firm evidence base. OBJECTIVE: To assess whether or not augmenting symptomatic follow-up in primary care with two intensive methods of follow-up [monitoring of blood carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) levels and scheduled imaging] is effective and cost-effective in detecting the recurrence of colorectal cancer treatable surgically with curative intent. DESIGN: Randomised controlled open-label trial. Participants were randomly assigned to one of four groups: (1) minimum follow-up (n = 301), (2) CEA testing only (n = 300), (3) computerised tomography (CT) only (n = 299) or (4) CEA testing and CT (n = 302). Blood CEA was measured every 3 months for 2 years and then every 6 months for 3 years; CT scans of the chest, abdomen and pelvis were performed every 6 months for 2 years and then annually for 3 years. Those in the minimum and CEA testing-only arms had a single CT scan at 12-18 months. The groups were minimised on adjuvant chemotherapy, gender and age group (three strata). SETTING: Thirty-nine NHS hospitals in England with access to high-volume services offering surgical treatment of metastatic recurrence. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 1202 participants who had undergone curative treatment for Dukes' stage A to C colorectal cancer with no residual disease. Adjuvant treatment was completed if indicated. There was no evidence of metastatic disease on axial imaging and the post-operative blood CEA level was ≤ 10 µg/l. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcome Surgical treatment of recurrence with curative intent. Secondary outcomes Time to detection of recurrence, survival after treatment of recurrence, overall survival and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained. RESULTS: Detection of recurrence During 5 years of scheduled follow-up, cancer recurrence was detected in 203 (16.9%) participants. The proportion of participants with recurrence surgically treated with curative intent was 6.3% (76/1202), with little difference according to Dukes' staging (stage A, 5.1%; stage B, 7.4%; stage C, 5.6%; p = 0.56). The proportion was two to three times higher in each of the three more intensive arms (7.5% overall) than in the minimum follow-up arm (2.7%) (difference 4.8%; p = 0.003). Surgical treatment of recurrence with curative intent was 2.7% (8/301) in the minimum follow-up group, 6.3% (19/300) in the CEA testing group, 9.4% (28/299) in the CT group and 7.0% (21/302) in the CEA testing and CT group. Surgical treatment of recurrence with curative intent was two to three times higher in each of the three more intensive follow-up groups than in the minimum follow-up group; adjusted odds ratios (ORs) compared with minimum follow-up were as follows: CEA testing group, OR 2.40, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02 to 5.65; CT group, OR 3.69, 95% CI 1.63 to 8.38; and CEA testing and CT group, OR 2.78, 95% CI 1.19 to 6.49. Survival A Kaplan-Meier survival analysis confirmed no significant difference between arms (log-rank p = 0.45). The baseline-adjusted Cox proportional hazards ratio comparing the minimum and intensive arms was 0.87 (95% CI 0.67 to 1.15). These CIs suggest a maximum survival benefit from intensive follow-up of 3.8%. Cost-effectiveness The incremental cost per patient treated surgically with curative intent compared with minimum follow-up was £40,131 with CEA testing, £43,392 with CT and £85,151 with CEA testing and CT. The lack of differential impact on survival resulted in little difference in QALYs saved between arms. The additional cost per QALY gained of moving from minimum follow-up to CEA testing was £25,951 and for CT was £246,107. When compared with minimum follow-up, combined CEA testing and CT was more costly and generated fewer QALYs, resulting in a negative incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (-£208,347) and a dominated policy. LIMITATIONS: Although this is the largest trial undertaken at the time of writing, it has insufficient power to assess whether or not the improvement in detecting treatable recurrence achieved by intensive follow-up leads to a reduction in overall mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Rigorous staging to detect residual disease is important before embarking on follow-up. The benefit of intensive follow-up in detecting surgically treatable recurrence is independent of stage. The survival benefit from intensive follow-up is unlikely to exceed 4% in absolute terms and harm cannot be absolutely excluded. A longer time horizon is required to ascertain whether or not intensive follow-up is an efficient use of scarce health-care resources. Translational analyses are under way, utilising tumour tissue collected from Follow-up After Colorectal Surgery trial participants, with the aim of identifying potentially prognostic biomarkers that may guide follow-up in the future. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN41458548. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 21, No. 32. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Association between miR-31-3p expression and cetuximab efficacy in patients with KRAS wild-type metastatic colorectal cancer: a post-hoc analysis of the New EPOC trial.

BACKGROUND: High miR-31-3p expression is associated with inferior outcomes in KRAS wild-type (WT) advanced colorectal cancer patients treated with anti-EGFR therapy. This study evaluated miR-31-3p expression in patients with operable colorectal liver metastases (LM) enrolled in the New EPOC study. METHODS: MiR-31-3p expression was measured in primary tumors (PT) from 149 KRAS WT patients including 71 receiving chemotherapy alone (CT) and 78 receiving chemotherapy plus cetuximab (CTX). Each treatment arm was split into tertiles based on miR-31-3p expression levels. MiR-31-3p expression was also measured in LM from 94 patients with tumor tissue available. RESULTS: The median progression-free survival for the combined populations with mid or high miR-31-3p expression was shorter in the CTX versus the CT arm (26.7 months versus 12.3 months, HR=2.28 95%CI 1.27; 4.09 p=0.006). Low miR-31-3p expressers had similar outcomes irrespective of treatment (HR=1.06 95%CI 0.43; 2.61 p=0.9). MiR-31-3p expression was correlated between paired PT and LM samples in the CT group but not in the CTX group. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with low miR-31-3p expression in the New EPOC study were not harmed by the addition of cetuximab. This supports miR-31-3p as a promising predictive biomarker for anti-EGFR therapy in KRAS WT advanced colorectal cancer.