Exploring the validity of routine individuated service data for antenatal HIV surveillance in the Western Cape.

Background: In the Western Cape, South Africa, public-sector individual-level routine data are consolidated from multiple sources through the Provincial Health Data Centre (PHDC). This enables the description of temporal changes in population-wide antenatal HIV seroprevalence. We evaluated the validity of these data compared to aggregated program data and population-wide sentinel antenatal HIV seroprevalence surveys for the Western Cape province. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort analysis of all pregnancies identified in the PHDC from January 2011 to December 2020. Evidence of antenatal and HIV care from electronic platforms were linked using a unique patient identifier. HIV prevalence estimates were triangulated and compared with available survey estimates and aggregated programmatic data from registers as recorded in the District Health Information System. Provincial, district-level and age-group HIV prevalence estimates were compared between data systems using correlation coefficients, absolute differences and trend analysis. Results: Of the 977800 pregnancies ascertained, PHDC HIV prevalence estimates from 2011-2013 were widely disparate from aggregate and survey data (due to incomplete electronic data), whereas from 2014 onwards, estimates were within the 95% confidence interval of survey estimates, and closely correlated to aggregate data estimates (r = 0.8; p = 0.01), with an average prevalence difference of 0.4%. PHDC data show a slow but steady increase in provincial HIV prevalence from 16.7% in 2015 to 18.6% in 2020. The highest HIV prevalence was in the Cape Metro district (20.3%) Prevalence estimates by age group were comparable between sentinel surveys and PHDC from 2015 onwards, with prevalence estimates stable over time among younger age-groups (15-24 years) but increased among older age-groups (> 34 years). Conclusions: This study compares sentinel seroprevalence surveys with both register-based aggregate data and consolidated individuated administrative data. We show that in this setting linked individuated data may be reliably used for HIV surveillance and provide more granular estimates with greater efficiency than seroprevalence surveys and register-based aggregate data.

Correlates of viral suppression among sexual minority men and transgender women living with HIV in Mpumalanga, South Africa.

Sexual minority men (SMM) and transgender women in South Africa engage in HIV care at lower rates than other persons living with HIV and may experience population-specific barriers to HIV treatment and viral suppression (VS). As part of a pilot trial of an SMM-tailored peer navigation (PN) intervention in Ehlanzeni district, South Africa, we assessed factors associated with ART use and VS among SMM at trial enrolment. A total of 103 HIV-positive SMM and transgender women enrolled in the pilot trial. Data on clinical visits and ART adherence were self-reported. VS status was verified through laboratory analysis (<1000 copies/ml). We assessed correlates of VS at baseline using Poisson generalized linear model (GLM) with a log link function, including demographic, psychosocial, clinical, and behavioral indicators. Among participants, 52.4% reported ART use and only 42.2% of all participants had evidence of VS. Of the 49.5% who reported optimal engagement in HIV care (consistent clinic visits with pills never missed for ≥ 4 consecutive days) in the past 3-months, 56.0% were virally suppressed. In multivariable analysis, SMM were significantly more likely to be virally suppressed when they were ≥ 25 years of age (Adjusted prevalence ratio [APR] = 2.0, CI 95%:1.0-3.8); in a relationship but not living with partner, as compared to married, living together, or single (APR = 1.7, CI 95%:1.0-2.7), and optimally engaged in care (APR = 2.1, 95% CI:1.3-3.3). Findings indicate a need for targeted treatment and care support programming, especially for SMM and transgender women who are young and married/living with their partners to improve treatment outcomes among this population.

Trends in COVID-19 admissions and deaths among people living with HIV in South Africa: analysis of national surveillance data.

BACKGROUND: In 2021, the HIV prevalence among South African adults was 18% and more than 2 million people had uncontrolled HIV and, therefore, had increased risk of poor outcomes with SARS-CoV-2 infection. We investigated trends in COVID-19 admissions and factors associated with in-hospital COVID-19 mortality among people living with HIV and people without HIV. METHODS: In this analysis of national surveillance data, we linked and analysed data collected between March 5, 2020, and May 28, 2022, from the DATCOV South African national COVID-19 hospital surveillance system, the SARS-CoV-2 case line list, and the Electronic Vaccination Data System. All analyses included patients hospitalised with SARS-CoV-2 with known in-hospital outcomes (ie, who were discharged alive or had died) at the time of data extraction. We used descriptive statistics for admissions and mortality trends. Using post-imputation random-effect multivariable logistic regression models, we compared characteristics and the case fatality ratio of people with HIV and people without HIV. Using modified Poisson regression models, we compared factors associated with mortality among all people with COVID-19 admitted to hospital and factors associated with mortality among people with HIV. FINDINGS: Among 397 082 people with COVID-19 admitted to hospital, 301 407 (75·9%) were discharged alive, 89 565 (22·6%) died, and 6110 (1·5%) had no recorded outcome. 270 737 (68·2%) people with COVID-19 had documented HIV status (22 858 with HIV and 247 879 without). Comparing characteristics of people without HIV and people with HIV in each COVID-19 wave, people with HIV had increased odds of mortality in the D614G (adjusted odds ratio 1·19, 95% CI 1·09-1·29), beta (1·08, 1·01-1·16), delta (1·10, 1·03-1·18), omicron BA.1 and BA.2 (1·71, 1·54-1·90), and omicron BA.4 and BA.5 (1·81, 1·41-2·33) waves. Among all COVID-19 admissions, mortality was lower among people with previous SARS-CoV-2 infection (adjusted incident rate ratio 0·32, 95% CI 0·29-0·34) and with partial (0·93, 0·90-0·96), full (0·70, 0·67-0·73), or boosted (0·50, 0·41-0·62) COVID-19 vaccination. Compared with people without HIV who were unvaccinated, people without HIV who were vaccinated had lower risk of mortality (0·68, 0·65-0·71) but people with HIV who were vaccinated did not have any difference in mortality risk (1·08, 0·96-1·23). In-hospital mortality was higher for people with HIV with CD4 counts less than 200 cells per µL, irrespective of viral load and vaccination status. INTERPRETATION: HIV and immunosuppression might be important risk factors for mortality as COVID-19 becomes endemic. FUNDING: South African National Institute for Communicable Diseases, the South African National Government, and the United States Agency for International Development.