RESUMEN
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Image-based artificial intelligence (AI) methods have shown high accuracy in prostate cancer (PCa) detection. Their impact on patient outcomes and cost effectiveness in comparison to human pathologists remains unknown. Our aim was to evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of AI-assisted pathology for PCa diagnosis in Sweden. METHODS: We modeled quadrennial prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening for men between the ages of 50 and 74 yr over a lifetime horizon using a health care perspective. Men with PSA ≥3 ng/ml were referred for standard biopsy (SBx), for which cores were either examined via AI followed by a pathologist for AI-labeled positive cores, or a pathologist alone. The AI performance characteristics were estimated using an internal STHLM3 validation data set. Outcome measures included the number of tests, PCa incidence and mortality, overdiagnosis, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and the potential reduction in pathologist-evaluated biopsy cores if AI were used. Cost-effectiveness was assessed using the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. KEY FINDINGS AND LIMITATIONS: In comparison to a pathologist alone, the AI-assisted workflow increased the number of PSA tests, SBx procedures, and PCa deaths by ≤0.03%, and slightly reduced PCa incidence and overdiagnosis. AI would reduce the proportion of biopsy cores evaluated by a pathologist by 80%. At a cost of 10 per case, the AI-assisted workflow would cost less and result in <0.001% lower QALYs in comparison to a pathologist alone. The results were sensitive to the AI cost. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS: According to our model, AI-assisted pathology would significantly decrease the workload of pathologists, would not affect patient quality of life, and would yield cost savings in Sweden when compared to a human pathologist alone. PATIENT SUMMARY: We compared outcomes for prostate cancer patients and relevant costs for two methods of assessing prostate biopsies in Sweden: (1) artificial intelligence (AI) technology and review of positive biopsies by a human pathologist; and (2) a human pathologist alone for all biopsies. We found that addition of AI would reduce the pathology workload and save money, and would not affect patient outcomes when compared to a human pathologist alone. The results suggest that adding AI to prostate pathology in Sweden would save costs.
RESUMEN
Prostate cancer screening using prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing is controversial but remains prevalent in many countries. There is little information in Sweden or elsewhere on the spatial variation in PSA testing. This study aims to describe the spatio-temporal variation in PSA testing prior to a prostate cancer diagnosis in the Stockholm region at the municipality and small area levels. A population-based register study comprised men aged 40 years and over living in the Stockholm region during 2007-2016. For Stockholm in 2016, we reported the proportion of men who had a PSA test for the preceding one, two, five and ten years by ten-year age groups. The age-standardised proportion of men having a PSA test was reported for municipalities by calendar years. We used spatial smoothing for calculating the age-standardised proportion of men having a PSA test in a small area for each calendar year. In 2016, 74.0% and 77.8% of men aged 60-69 and 70-79 years respectively had taken a PSA test in the previous ten years. The municipalities of Danderyd and Ekerö showed high proportions of PSA testing. A marked heterogeneity in such proportions within each municipality was observed. The odds ratio for having a PSA test for those born in Sweden was 2.22 (95% CI 2.00-2.52). Opportunistic PSA testing is widespread with three quarters of men in their sixties and seventies having had a test in the preceding decade. We found evidence for marked geographical heterogeneity, where more affluent and metropolitan areas had higher levels of testing. Variations in PSA testing was associated with socio-economic position and demographic factors including education, income and country of birth.