Influenza surveillance: determining the epidemic threshold for influenza by using the Moving Epidemic Method (MEM), Montenegro, 2010/11 to 2017/18 influenza seasons.

BACKGROUND: In 2009, an improved influenza surveillance system was implemented and weekly reporting to the World Health Organization on influenza-like illness (ILI) began. The goals of the surveillance system are to monitor and analyse the intensity of influenza activity, to provide timely information about circulating strains and to help in establishing preventive and control measures. In addition, the system is useful for comparative analysis of influenza data from Montenegro with other countries. AIM: We aimed to evaluate the performance and usefulness of the Moving Epidemic Method (MEM), for use in the influenza surveillance system in Montenegro. METHODS: Historical ILI data from 2010/11 to 2017/18 influenza seasons were modelled with MEM. Epidemic threshold for Montenegro 2017/18 season was calculated using incidence rates from 2010/11-2016/17 influenza seasons. RESULTS: Pre-epidemic ILI threshold per 100,000 population was 19.23, while the post-epidemic threshold was 17.55. Using MEM, we identified an epidemic of 10 weeks' duration. The sensitivity of the MEM epidemic threshold in Montenegro was 89% and the warning signal specificity was 99%. CONCLUSIONS: Our study marks the first attempt to determine the pre/post-epidemic threshold values for the epidemic period in Montenegro. The findings will allow a more detailed examination of the influenza-related epidemiological situation, timely detection of epidemic and contribute to the development of more efficient measures for disease prevention and control aimed at reducing the influenza-associated morbidity and mortality.

Haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Montenegro, 2004-14.

From 2004 to 2014, 106 cases of Human haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome were notified in Montenegro, with a peak in 2014. Most of the cases occurred in summer, in the North-east and Central Montenegro, a hilly/mountainous area, that provides suitable habitats for the main rodent carriers. Cases were mainly males (71) and exposures were often working outdoor or spending time visiting mountains and lakes. Incidence correlated with average annual temperature increase and average annual rainfalls decrease, but not with land cover. Environment and climate effects on HFRS in Montenegro need further investigation to get insight into future trends.

HIV-related knowledge, attitudes and practice among health care workers in Montenegro.

The objective of the present study was to assess HIV-related knowledge, attitudes, and practice of health care workers (HCWs) in Montenegro. A cross-sectional study was conducted in the University Clinical Centre of Montenegro in Podgorica. A self-administered anonymous questionnaire was used for data collecting. Out of 526 HCWs, 422 were included in the survey and response rate was 80%. An insufficient level of knowledge on HIV transmission and the risk after exposure was observed generally, although the knowledge was better in physicians compared to other HCWs categories. A rather high proportion of HCWs showed inappropriate attitude regarding the need of HIV testing of all hospitalized patients (64.7%) and obligation of HIV+ patient to report his/her HIV status (88.9%) in order to practice universal precaution. Additionally, 6.2% HCWs would refuse to treat an HIV+ patient. More than a half (55.7%) of study participants were educated in HIV/AIDS and 15.9% of them were HIV tested. Majority of HCWs (67.5%) always applied universal precautions during their daily work with patients. In spite of applying protective devices, number of accidents was great. A continuous education is necessary to increase the level of knowledge of HCWs about the risk of infection at the workplace. This would potentially influence the modification of their attitudes regarding HIV patients and improve prevention at the workplace. Continuous research regarding the professional risk would provide better health and safety among medical staff.

Climate Variables Related to the Incidence of Human Leishmaniosis in Montenegro in Southeastern Europe during Seven Decades (1945-2014).

Leishmaniosis (or leishmaniasis) is a neglected parasitosis most commonly transmitted by the sandfly bite. Changes in temperature, precipitation, and humidity can greatly affect the vectors and reservoir hosts. This study aimed to determine the association between temperature, air humidity, and weather conditions with the incidence of leishmaniasis in Montenegro during a seven-decade period (1945-2014) and to statistically compare and correlate the obtained data. In the studied period, there were 165 registered cases of leishmaniosis, 96.4%, in the coastal and central region of Montenegro, with an average incidence rate of 0.45/100.000. The visceral form of leishmaniosis predominated (99% of the cases), with only one case of cutaneous disease. Climate factors (average temperature, air humidity, and precipitation) had an impact on the occurrence of leishmaniosis in Montenegro. Air temperature elevated by 1 °C in all regions of Montenegro was significantly correlated with an increased incidence of leishmaniosis, by 0.150 (0.013 to 0.287; p < 0.05). In order to improve prevention and control of this disease, it is also necessary to investigate other factors with a possible impact on the number of cases of this neglected parasitosis.

Factors associated with patient and health system delays in diagnosis and treatment of tuberculosis in Montenegro, 2015-2016.

BACKGROUND: Fundamental measures of control of tuberculosis are early detection and timely treatment of the affected. The aim of this study was to identify factors associated with patient-related and health system-related delays among patients with tuberculosis in the Republic of Montenegro. METHODS: A cross-sectional study included 130 tuberculosis patients older than 15 years of age. The inclusion criteria were diagnosis of tuberculosis based on clinical, pathohistological and microbiological findings. Patient delay referred to the number of days between the onset of symptoms and the first consultation with general practitioner (GP). Health system delay represented the number of days between the first consultation with GP and the initiation of tuberculosis treatment.We classified delays longer than median delay length as 'prolonged delays'. Delays greater than 75th percentile of the maximum length of delay were classified as 'extreme delays'. RESULTS: Distribution of patient and health system delay in the overall delay was apprioximately equal (49% vs. 51%). Being married (OR = 2.54, p = 0.026) and having more negative attitudes towards tuberculosis (OR = 4.00, p = 0.045) were associated with extreme patient delay. Greater knowledge on tuberculosis was associated with lower likelihood of prolonged (OR = 0.24, p = 0.031) and extreme (OR = 0.30, p = 0.012) patient delay. Persons with negative sputum smear were more likely to experience prolonged (OR = 7.01, p<0.001) and extreme (OR = 4.40, p = 0.032) health system delay. Persons older than 47 years of age were more likely to experience prolonged health system delay (OR = 2.61, p = 0.042). Specialist consultation delay was associated with prolonged (OR = 1.08, p = 0.001) and extreme (OR = 1.05, p<0.001) health system delay. CONCLUSION: Contribution to overall delay is equally distributed between the patients and the health care system. Improvement of knowledge in the general population and continuing medical education of the health care workers on tuberculosis could lead to reduction in patient and health system delays in treatment of tuberculosis.

Severe acute respiratory infection surveillance in Montenegro, 2014-2017.

AIM: The study aim was to analyze the epidemiology and clinical characteristics of severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) cases and to compare demographic and clinical characteristics as well as outcomes of influenza-positive SARI cases to those of influenza-negative SARI cases in Montenegro. METHODS: SARI surveillance was established in 2014 in nine healthcare institutions. Retrospective analysis of case-based surveillance data pertaining to all reported SARI cases during three seasons was conducted. RESULTS: Among the 90 identified SARI cases, 64 (71%) were influenza positive. Death outcome was reported in 25 (28%) of all registered SARI cases. Cardiovascular disease was more prevalent among the patients in the influenza-positive SARI group (36% vs. 12%, p = .021), as was concurrence of two or more chronic medical conditions (57% vs. 30%, p = .042). These patients were also more likely to be immunocompromised (16% vs. 0%, p = .057) and have viral pneumonia (14.4% vs. 20.3%, p = .017), compared to those in the influenza-negative SARI group. Younger age, presence of cardiovascular disease and being immunocompromised were patient characteristics independently associated with SARI related to influenza. CONCLUSION: Continued and extended monitoring of SARI is necessary in order to fully assess the burden of flu disease, define risk groups and establish better control measures.

Epidemiological Surveillance of Leishmaniasis in Montenegro, 1992-2013.

INTRODUCTION: The diseases caused by Leishmania are spread worldwide and represent a significant public health problem. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to present the results of epidemiological surveillance of leishmaniasis in humans in Montenegro in the period from 1992 to 2013. METHODS: The study was planned and realized as a descriptive epidemiological study.The sample included patients of leishmaniasis in Montenegro in the period from 1992 to 2013. The health and demographic data were collected from medical records.The disease was microbiologically proven in the patients. For statistical analysis the χ2-test was used, which examined the significance of the incidence rate. RESULTS: During this period, 66 cases of leishmaniasis were identified (40 men and 26 women) aged 0 to 62 (mean 15.61 ± 16.76 years). A visceral form of the disease was diagnosed in 65 (98%) patients, and one patient was diagnosed with cutaneous leishmaniasis. The average incidence rate for the abovementioned period is 0.48 per 100,000 inhabitants. The highest average incidence rate was identified in patients up to seven years of age (3.50 per 100,000 inhabitants). The highest average incidence rates of leishmaniasis were identified in the coastal region of Montenegro, while seasonal distribution indicates that the disease occurs throughout the year with predominance in late spring and summer. CONCLUSION: The research has shown that Montenegro is among the countries with low incidence of leishmaniasis. Nevertheless, because of leishmaniasis re-emergence in the entire Mediterranean Basin, a comprehensive research of ecological and epidemiological characteristics of leishmaniasis, including better monitoring and notification system, is required.

[Shigellosis--epidemiological situation in Montenegro in period 1996-2005].

UNLABELLED: INTRODUCTION Shigellosis is the most common cause of diarrhoea in the world. It is estimated to cause 165 million cases per a year, and two third of all diseases and most of the deaths are among children under 10 years of age. The aim of this descriptive epidemiologic study was to analyze the incidence of shigellosis in Montenegro during the period 1996-2005 and to find out which species of Shigella were dominant in this region. MATERIAL AND METHODS: In the analysis of the data we used crude, age-specific and standardized incidence rates calculated by direct method using world population by Segi as standard. RESULTS: During the study period the average participation of shigellosis among all cases of intestinal diseases expressed in percentage was 1.2%. The average standardized incidence rate for shigellosis was 7.18/100.000 in male population and 6.3/100.000 in female population. During the period 1996-2005 the number of Shigella cases decreased both in male and female population. Most of the cases were among children aged 0-14, and then in the age group 15-24 years. The most common species were S. sonnei (46.1%), then S. flexnery (25.4%), S. boydi (10.9%) and S. dysenteriae (3.6%). DISCUSSION: Today shigellosis is still a big health problem in most countries because of high mortality rate among children, the presence of multi-resistant species to antibiotics, easy transmission from one person to another and lack of preventive measures, especially vaccine. CONCLUSION: In order to decrease the incidence of shigellosis it is necessary to apply appropriate preventive measures as well as to improve vaccine against this disease.